Thursday 27th June 2024

Bonjour from France…and au revoir to the heat (though not for me quite yet) – a decent spell of weather ahead for us.

Photograph is from me again, from the lovely Strasbourg.

So the general set-up sees low pressure pushing across – it’s to our north so it won’t have much of an impact, initially, other than pushing the heat away.

Today starts with sunny spells, but a band of cloud will spread across during the morning, perhaps a spot of rain, and this will clear the heat away. Sunny spells will follow for the afternoon, initially quite hazy, but it will become increasingly clear. Still warm, around 22’C, maybe a tad more – becoming quite windy. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Friday starts fairly sunny but it will become much cloudier during the morning – some sunny breaks but fairly cloudy. During the afternoon, sunshine amounts will increase once more. Warm, around 22’C, rather breezy still. Reasonable clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Saturday looks reasonably sunny and very warm. The sun often hazy with high cloud for a fair portion of the day, otherwise very pleasant. Around 24’C and lighter breeze again. A weak weather front will spread south overnight, bringing cloud and perhaps a spot of rain. A warmer night, around 15’C.

Sunday starts cloudy, but the weather front will clear south to leave good sunny spells – perhaps some cloud at times, and a very small chance of a shower – but far more likely a very pleasant afternoon. Very warm again, around 24’C. Clear skies overnight, around 12’C.

Monday likely starts with hazy sunshine. A weak weather front looks like crossing, which means it will become fairly cloudy, perhaps a little patchy rain, though still some hazy sunshine at times. Warm, 22’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, around 13’C.

Tuesday looks fair with some sunny spells, some cloud and roughly around 21’C.

From there, low pressure likely asserts itself once more, but again it should be further north so rain impacts fairly limited. Generally Wednesday to Friday will be changeable, but sunny spells at times, cloudier at other times, with occasional showery rain.

Early suggestions for next weekend are for something cooler and more unsettled, but pretty low confidence, as you might expect 10 days or so away. Anything July-ish could happen, but cooler and showery is the slightly more likely outcome as it stands.

Also there are hints of something more settled and probably hot by mid-July.

Enjoy the rather pleasant weather!…

Monday 24th June 2024

Guten tag de Switzerland! It looks like I’ve escaped the better weather in the UK again…bad holiday timing from me though hopefully I will get some sunshine from today onwards.

In the UK, at least our region, the week starts hot with some sunshine – and likely stays dry all week, not always sunny and only hot for a few days. But you can still call it summer.

No photograph this week – I seem to have run out. Here’s one of cloudy Switzerland instead.

We start the week with the Azores high stretching across most of the UK.

Monday starts sunny but cloud quickly bubbles up, probably more cloud than sun for a time. During the afternoon, the cloud will slowly break up to leave a sunny late afternoon/evening. Still quite hot, reaching around 26’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

Tuesday will be similar. Sunny to start, cloud again bubbles up – probably more cloud than sun over the lunchtime period, but again becoming sunnier during the afternoon, and broadly sunnier than Monday. Hot, around 29’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight and a fairly warm night, down to 15’C.

Wednesday is fairly similar to previous days, again it starts sunny, cloud bubbles up – though a bit less cloud than the day before. Hot, around 30’C, give or take. Clear skies overnight and a fairly warm night again, no lower than around 16’C.

By Thursday we see low pressure closer to the north-west of Scotland, and this pushes through a weak weather front – and this will move the heat away.

Hazy sunshine is the theme, increasingly so as the afternoon goes on and the weather front approaches. Still hot, around 28’C. The band of cloud pushes east overnight, fresher air eventually arrives with temperatures down to 13’C.

Friday will be sunny, very warm with few clouds. Reaching around 24’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

A bit of uncertainty by the weekend, but more likely high pressure hangs on, low pressure staying to our north and thunderstorms stay over the continent.

Broadly speaking, sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud. A bit more uncertainty on temperatures – roughly 20’C to 25’C the most likely range.

Fairly low confidence going forward, though the somewhat more likely outcome for the beginning of July sees high pressure just about stay in control over the southern half of the UK, so more in the way of sunshine, dry conditions and warmth being the general plan.

I shall get back to enjoying the scenery on my train through Switzerland!…

Friday 21st June 2024

It must be summer – the sun is shining, my windows need to stay open overnight – and England football team are stinking out the place. What on earth did I watch last night? Thankfully there is more joy to be had with the weather.

Thanks to Lucinda for the photograph.

We start Friday with high pressure loosely in control – a thundery low over the continent not heading our way, though the jetstream is fairly strong to our north-west, which will bring some interruptions to our fledgling summer.

Sunshine to start Friday, fair-weather cloud will bubble up and likely more cloud than sunshine during the lunchtime period. Into the afternoon, the cloud will break once more to bring increasingly long spells of sunshine, though also some high cloud making it a little hazy later. Very warm, reaching 24’C, maybe 25’C. Cloud will thickening during the evening, some patchy light/moderate rain by late evening and into the early hours. No lower than 13’C.

Saturday starts cloudy, perhaps some light rain/drizzle at times. It will slowly brighten up during the morning, one or two scattered heavy showers will be possible for a time, but during the afternoon it will become increasingly sunny, dry and very warm again – somewhere between 23’C and 25’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Sunday sees the lovely Azores High building over the UK. Some uncertainty on cloud amounts, there is the potential for an area of cloud to become trapped under the high which would lead to a cloudy day, or a long spell of cloud with some sunny spells at times – but even so, 22’C to 24’C should be achieved. Should it be on the sunnier end of the scale, 26’C is achievable. Any cloud should break up in the evening and overnight, with temperatures around 14’C.

By Monday, high pressure is holding on, though weather fronts will be trying to push in – and we’ll need to watch a thundery low over Switzerland to see what that does.

Monday will be hot and sunny at times, if not all day. Some cloud possible, especially through the lunchtime period – perhaps more cloud than sun, but some uncertainty and a lack of cloud remains possible. Reaching around 28’C, give or take – the first hot day of the year. A warm night possible too.

Tuesday becomes more uncertain as a weather front tries to push in from the west and the European developing low edges closer too. We should stay hot with sunny spells and fair-weather cloud, but certainly a chance of a shower. Temperatures somewhere between 26’C and 30’C. Though there is a chance instead of something cloudier with perhaps some rain – say 80/20 in favour of the hot and sunny outcome.

From there is goes highly uncertain in terms of details – most likely the thundery low arrives on Wednesday, but until any rain/thunderstorms arrive it will likely remain hot humid – Wednesday could easily be a wet day, but also it could be hot, humid and sunny, awaiting thunderstorm development.

Thursday and Friday are impossible to forecast at this stage, and will depend on what the thundery low does – if pushed, then showery is arguably the more likely outcome.

There are no signals at all for July at the moment. I can only assume fairly ordinary summer weather is more likely – some spells of very warm sunshine, mixed with more changeable spells.

Enjoy the spell of summer (if you can) – alas I’m going to Switzerland, the one place in Europe this weekend with rain.…

Monday 17th June 2024

“Summer…?”. “Summer…? Is that you I see approaching?”. Yep, a definite improvement this week, though on shaky grounds.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

So we start the week with low pressure in charge, but it is splitting into two – one system heading towards Scandinavia, the other towards Spain…which allow high pressure to build instead.

Monday starts sunny. A fair amount of fair-weather cloud will bubble up, a small chance of an innocuous shower but most likely we stay dry. And there will continue to be sunny spells. Warm, 21’C, maybe 22’C. Some high level cloud spreading north in the evening and overnight thanks to the splitting low pressure, but the rain stays to the south of the UK. Down to around 12’C.

Tuesday starts fairly cloudy but bright. A spell of rain will spread north-east, but it looks like it will miss us and be for the far south-east corner of England – a relatively close call so don’t be surprised if there is a little morning rain, but it will soon pass if so. During the afternoon still fairly cloudy, some sunny spells and a moderate chance of a shower – around 20’C, give or take. The shower chance continues into the evening, dry and fairly cloudy overnight – no lower than around 12’C.

A fair amount of cloud on Wednesday, especially in the morning. Gradually sunshine amounts will increase – whether we get more sunshine than cloud in the afternoon is uncertain, but possible. Around 20’C, give or take. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 9’C.

High pressure still just about in control for Thursday, though the thundery low over Spain/France getting a bit closer to us.

It looks a rather nice day, long spells of sunshine, some high cloud making it a little hazy – but the closest to a summer day we’ve had for a while. Warm, around 23’C, give or take. In the evening there is a chance of importing a thundery shower from France – more likely it stays over the continent, or at most clips Kent – but as always with convective outbreaks, it will be uncertain until the event. Around 14’C overnight.

Friday is a little complex – a small chance of some leftover cloud/rain from whatever developed on Thursday night, to start the day, but more likely we start fairly sunny. Generally then we are looking at sunny spells slowly giving way to cloudier skies as a weather front pushes in from the west. Reaching around 23’C – maybe a little more. Fairly cloudy with a little patchy rain overnight as a weather front spreads across from the west.

For Saturday, the Atlantic takes over somewhat, with cloud and patchy light rain turning into sunny spells and the odd shower. Temperatures likely still on the warm side, around 22’C but easily could be a couple either side.

But (most likely) for Sunday, high pressure re-asserts itself once more, bringing good sunny spells, some fair-weather cloud and temperatures ticking back up – say, 24’C or so. Low pressure won’t be far to our north, so it is within the bounds of possibility that it is cloudier then the more likely option, but I’m pretty confident it will be sunny.

The more likely option, at least to start the next week, is for high pressure to remain in control, bringing good spells of sunshine, and more warm weather – with a moderate chance of it becoming hot.

Summer! More or less, anyway. I’m not sure it will last – more likely next week goes back to being changeable as the week progresses, but we’ll see.…

Friday 14th June 2024

Low pressure is back…expect showers. Summer this ain’t…though improvements possible as next week goes on (though high uncertainty).

Thanks to Lene for the photograph.

We start with low pressure arriving into the UK in time for the weekend.

Friday starts fairly cloudy with some occasional sunny spells – heavy showers will quickly develop, and most places will likely see multiple heavy showers, thunder possible. Just about getting to 18’C and breezy, especially so in showers. Showers probably fade in the evening for a time, though another cluster will move through around late evening into the early hours. Some clear spells to finish the night, down to around 8’C.

A band of cloud and showers moves through early on Saturday morning, followed by limited sunny spells and further heavy showers, perhaps with a rumble of thunder. 18’C at best and quite windy at times. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight – and a chance of a shower or two. Down to around 11’C.

Low pressure still in charge for Sunday, but the focus for showers away from us. Still plenty of cloud, but more in the way of sunny spells than there has been, and fewer showers – still likely catching one or two during the day, which could be heavy. Around 19’C. Reasonably clear overnight, though a chance of a shower by dawn.

Quite a bit of uncertainty on details for Monday, as by this point the low pressure has likely split into two systems, with the second system heading to northern France.

This should allow slightly warmer air to creep up from the continent, say 20’C to 22’C more likely, and also more likely we see a mixture of sunny spells and showers. Quite how many showers is uncertain – anywhere from mostly dry to mostly showery, and will depend on exactly what happens when the original low pressure splits.

Tuesday is again also uncertain due to this low over northern France – arguably more likely it is close enough to the UK to at least make it mostly cloudy with some showers, but it could easily be far enough away for a pleasant and warm day, with hazy sunshine.

Wednesday also remains uncertain. The slightly more likely outcome sees a ridge of high pressure build in from the west, bringing a drier and pleasant day – but other options also include a return of the northerlies (yuck) or the French low pressure bringing a spell of very heavy, thundery rain (much warmer and humid too).

For late next weekend and into next weekend…well you won’t be too surprised to hear me say that it is uncertain. However, we can have reasonable confidence on it being warmer, say 22’C to 25’C the more likely range.

High pressure should also be trying to build from the south-west, but that will be battling a stronger jetstream to our north-west, and also this thundery low over France. It’s a complicated picture – you can certainly hope for some drier, sunnier days late next week and into next weekend, but keep expectations moderated…a thundery washout, or a weekend like this one both remain very possible, and would a mixture of the regimes.

There are hints of high pressure being more in control for the last week of June, so sunnier, drier and warmer/hotter conditions more likely, though not especially high confidence yet.

Enjoy your weekend.…

Monday 10th June 2024

Hola de Bilbao! I’m yet to see more than 10 minutes of sunshine in Spain – and it isn’t exactly summer in Britain either, a cool northerly flow to start the week, with low pressure by next weekend.

No photograph this week, as limited on time.

We start with low pressure to our east, high pressure to our west – and a cooler than normal northerly flow.

Cloud and some bits of rain this morning will be replaced by some sunny spells, plenty of cloud and a few scattered showers – you may miss them all, they could be on the heavy side. 16’C and breezy. Showers fade this evening to leave reasonably clear skies, and temperatures down to around 7’C.

Tuesday starts fairly sunny but cloud soon bubbles up to bring a mostly cloudy day, some sunny spells at times. Some scattered showers also, possibly on the heavy side, and only reaching around 15’C…in mid June. Yuck. A cloudier night, some clear spells, down to around 9’C.

A slight improvement for Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure builds – plenty of cloud once more, still a chance of a shower in the first part of the day – less likely by mid-afternoon onwards. Some sunny spells, more so later in the day, and reaching around 16’C, maybe a bit more. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

Thursday starts bright, but cloud thickens with rain arriving at some point in the afternoon. Around 17’C before the rain arrives, becoming quite windy. Showery rain continues well into the night, dry later, down to around 12’C.

For Friday and into the weekend, low pressure is on the scene.

Details uncertain for Friday, but broadly sunny spells and showers, potentially heavy – uncertain on how many showers/how much sunshine at this stage. Warmer air, so we might squeeze 20’C with enough sunshine.

Saturday and Sunday broadly showery, some sunny spells at times – a chance of a longer spell of rain. Details still to be ironed out, depending on exact position of low pressure. Temperatures most likely somewhere between 17’C and 20’C.

Next week more likely to start showery once more. Next forecast will be on Friday.…

Friday 7th June 2024

A reasonable weekend but cooler than normal – and the northerly strengthens next week.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

So the general set-up for Friday and into the weekend sees high pressure to our west and just creeping into the south of the UK – with low pressure dominant to our north.

Friday starts gloriously sunny, but quite quickly lots of cloud will develop. Then for the rest of the day, generally fairly cloudy, some sunny spells, and a chance of an afternoon shower. Around 19’C and becoming breezy. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, a small chance of a shower, around 11’C.

Saturday sees a weak weather front spreading south. Perhaps sunny spells to start but the weather front will spread down during the morning to bring cloud and a little occasional rain – most of the time it will be dry. More in the way of sunshine as the afternoon progresses. Reaching 18’C, which is below average for June but will feel pleasant enough in the afternoon sunshine. Breezy at times too. Clear skies overnight and a chilly night, down to around 6’C.

Sunday starts gloriously sunny, but cloud will spread down from the north-west to bring a mostly cloudy day once it sets in. Some uncertainty as to when the cloud arrives, any time from mid-morning to early afternoon – and hence maximum temperatures will depend on when the cloud arrives, so anywhere from 16’C to 20’C is possible. Breezy too. Cloud spreading south overnight with some rain later. Around 10’C.

By Monday we are in a straight-up northerly flow. Yuck. I’ll be in Spain…where it is going to be cool, cloudy and damp…even more yuck.

Some uncertainty on conditions – it will depend on how quickly the overnight weather front clears. So the morning is possibly cloudy with some rain, but this may have cleared by time you wake up – it could clear any time from 6am to 2pm, roughly. Followed by sunny spells and scattered showers, in an unusually cool wind for June. Maximum temperatures somewhere between 12’C and 17’C – depending on sunshine amounts. Clear skies overnight, down to a fairly chilly 6’C.

Tuesday starts sunny, but cloud will bubble up to bring a fairly cloudy day, some sunny spells at times, but also some showers – possibly heavy and thundery by this stage. The cool northerly wind remains, with temperatures around 17’C. Probably clear skies overnight, down to around 7’C.

A similar story more likely on Wednesday, a sunny start, plenty of cloud bubbling up and likely a fair few showers, which could be on the heavy side. Around 17’C, give or take.

Details becoming sketchy by Thursday, but arguably more likely dry, fairly cloudy and fairly cool.

Next weekend is uncertain, but the more likely outcome sees low pressure move in from the west, to bring rain and/or heavy showers. On the bright side, at least it will get rid of the cooler northerly flow – whether 19’C and heavy showers is preferable to 16’C and cloudy, I’m unsure!

That’s a fairly grim forecast for a summer month! Hints remain that things drastically improve for July, perhaps even by late June…but this could always change.

If it’s any consolation, I’m going to Spain for a long weekend, and the forecast is cloudy, wet and 17’C. Yay. Not sure when the next forecast will be…maybe not until Wednesday, we’ll see!…

Monday 3rd June 2024

Well, I hope you enjoyed your day of summer yesterday. A fairly dry but often cloudy and cooler week ahead…some sunshine on some days so not too bad overall.

Thanks to Isabel for the photograph.

The general set up to start the week sees high pressure to our west, in control of things and keeping things settled – though low pressure is waiting to our north.

Monday will be fairly cloudy as a weak weather front slowly makes its way south. Bright at times, especially earlier with some hazy sunshine. Cloud tending to be thicker as the day goes on, perhaps a spot of drizzle. Reaching around 20’C. Mostly cloudy overnight and a mild night at 14’C.

Tuesday starts with some sunny spells, some cloud. Cloud will thicken from the west during the morning as another weak weather front crosses – most of the time it will remain dry, but likely a little bit of showery rain at some points. Still reaching to around 21’C. Cloud clearing in the evening to leave clear skies, slightly chilly for the time of year – down to around 7’C.

Wednesday sees cooler air having spread down, though relatively pleasant otherwise with sunny spells and fair-weather cloud. Around 16’C, maybe 17’C – quite notably below normal, in a north-westerly breeze. Clear spells and a little bit chilly overnight, down to around 6’C.

By Thursday we are still under the influence of the low pressure to our north driving cooler conditions – though far enough away to stay dry. The hot air trying to push up from Spain isn’t getting here.

Again sunny spells with plenty of fair-weather cloud, probably more cloud than sun overall, but a decent enough day. Around 18’C – though potentially a couple either side. Mostly clear skies overnight and down to around 8’C.

Friday looks like seeing another weak weather front in the morning – so fairly cloudy with a chance of a shower, sunny spells and fair-weather cloud following. Temperatures somewhere between 17’C and 20’C. Clear skies likely overnight, down to around 8’C.

Some details uncertain for the weekend, but broadly it looks settled with high pressure again trying to move in from the west, but low pressure still fairly close to our north-east and at least driving temperatures to be cooler than normal, if still likely dry.

So broadly speaking, Saturday and Sunday both more likely dry (I don’t totally rule out a light/moderate shower), a mixture of cloudy spells and sunny spells, and roughly around 18’C.

Next week probably starts dry, perhaps becoming warmer and sunnier too.…

Summer Weather Forecast 2024

Summer has officially started, and it is time to issue my summer weather forecast 2024. There’s even a bit of sunshine today.

Usual disclaimer first, seasonal forecasting is experimental, nobody can tell you exactly what the weather will do in 42 day’s time. All I can offer is a broad based solution, based on background signals, recent weather patterns, long range weather models and a bit of guestimation.

Some of this will be right (well, hopefully!), some of it will be wrong. The aim is to get more broadly right than wrong – but one can have all the confidence one likes about the weather 3 months away, from strong background signals, weather models, etc – then an event happens that changes all that.

February this year was the perfect example – almost all background signals pointed to it being colder and drier than normal, weather models pointed that way too, the Met Office expected it, and still talked about it in February turning cold and dry. Yet it was ridiculously wet and mild…probably caused by the sudden stratospheric warming event in January, which in themselves normally cause cold and dry conditions.

My spring forecast had unusually low confidence behind it, and was pretty mixed in terms of success – arguably April/May turned out closer to the forecast than March. It was warmer and wetter than normal across all 3 months – I didn’t really pick that out, alas.

So take this with as much a pinch of salt as you want.

Also thanks to Debs for the photograph…had probably 10 that I wanted to use, so thanks to everyone that sent them in, but this is the closest to my forecast.

Background Signals

Background signals are less effectual in summer than winter, and there isn’t much to go on.

El Niño is fading into neutral ENSO conditions for summer, which I think favours reasonable weather in the UK, though with limited impact. We may transition to La Niña in August, but again I wouldn’t expect it to have much bearing on our weather.

North Atlantic sea surface temperatures remain well above normal, I think record levels – this will both increase heat when high pressure is in control, and rainfall intensity when low pressure is in control – especially if low pressure originates further south.

It’s also expected to be a busier than normal hurricane season – these are wild card events which can change the course of our weather patterns.


June looks fairly mixed. There is a fairly strong signal for high pressure to both dominant to our west, and also low pressure to our north/north-east, so this would suggest north-westerly flows more likely than normal for June.

The month starts fine and fairly warm. Towards the first weekend, it may become somewhat cooler and showery, though low certainty on this aspect. Probably not huge amounts of showers.

From then we likely alternate between cooler, cloudier spells with some showers and perhaps spells of wind/rain, and somewhat warmer spells with some sunshine.

During the latter third/quarter of June, a trend to something warmer but still with chances of showers – any showers heavier by this stage.

Overall I expect around average temperatures or even slightly below (rare in our warming world, if so), slightly below-average sunshine, and around average rainfall.

Confidence level 60%.


Fairly weak signals for July, but the beginning part of the month would be more likely to see further mixed conditions, some short hot/very hot spells mixed in, interspersed with heavy showers/thunderstorms on other days, and some fine warm/very warm days.

The latter half more likely drier, temperatures generally very warm or hot – though some short unsettled spells likely too – the mixed theme likely continues.

Overall I expect above average temperatures, around average sunshine, and slightly above average rainfall (though will depend on localised downpours…which will skew this).

Confidence level 50%.


What signals there are do suggest higher than normal pressure for August – which if this comes to pass (if!) may make a change from many recent summers.

Broadly still likely a mixture of conditions, many very warm/hot days, but also some wet/showery days as low pressure systems are triggered by the heat over Europe.

Suggestions that the latter part of August is a bit more of a westerly flow, and generally more settled, less hot, with reasonable sunny spells and only occasional weather fronts.

Overall I expect above average temperatures, slightly above average sunshine, and…well…rainfall totals could be anything depending if you catch a torrential downpour or two, so maybe days with rain falling is a better measure, and that to be below average.

Confidence level 50%.

Summary And Autumn

So…not bad. A pretty mixed but hotter than normal summer would be the general headline. But as I mentioned, the signals are weak, and I’ve been less successful with seasonal forecasts in recent years than I used to be. As always, take any weather forecast more than 5 day’s out with a huge bucket of salt.

Early suggestions for autumn are for it to be warmer, drier (!) and sunnier than normal, at least for September and October, with hot spells still probable.

Feel free to share this Summer Weather Forecast 2024, and enjoy your summer!…