Friday 31st May 2024

A reasonable end to spring, and start to summer, some warm sunshine at times – cloudy other times.

Thanks to Pauline for the photograph.

The general set-up sees high pressure close to our west – low pressure still closer to our east so we will at least have some cloud to deal with, and some patchy rain perhaps.

Friday will indeed be on the cloudy side, a weather front skirting down the east coast will bring some patchy light/moderate rain at times today, but there should also be a little sunshine at times too. Temperatures disappointing for the time of year, at around 15’C, with a northerly breeze. Plenty of cloud overnight, though some clear spells likely. Down to around 9’C.

Saturday does have a bit of uncertainty on cloud amounts – likely more cloud than sunshine overall, but also there should be some decent sunny spells at times. Cloudy spells more likely in the morning than other times. Assuming sufficient sunshine then reaching around 19’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 9’C.

By Sunday, high pressure to our west will have greater control, so more in the way of warm sunshine – decent sunny spells but likely still a fair amount of fair-weather cloud, and perhaps some high cloud in the afternoon making it hazier. But broadly a good day, and around 22’C. Cloudier and milder as a very weak weather front spreads down from the north-west overnight, 14’C.

Monday sees this weak weather front moving south, so bringing plenty of cloud – some bright/sunny spells still possible, likewise some light rain/drizzle – more so in the afternoon. Still a warmish feel at around 18’C or so. The weather front clearing overnight to leave mostly clear skies, around 11’C.

By Tuesday, we start to see the winds swing more to the north-west. We should hang onto the warmth for Tuesday with some sunny spells, and some cloud – though uncertain on details. Mostly likely temperatures still on the warm side, between 19’C and 23’C.

By Wednesday we start to see a developing low pressure move down from the north – not exactly what most would like to see in summer, but we should just about hang onto dry-ish conditions at least. Also some hotter air is coming up into Spain at the same time, but probably isn’t quite going to reach here (though guess who’s going to Spain next weekend?!).

Wednesday shouldn’t be too bad, sunny spells, fair-weather cloud, a chance of a shower and temperatures roughly between 16’C and 18’C is the more likely outcome – something cooler is plausible though.

Thursday probably on the cloudier side of the spectrum, though some sunny spells probable – more likely early/late in the day. Around 18’C but give or take, depending on cloud amounts.

By Friday and into next weekend, well, it’s complicated.

The hot air from Spain will likely be close – more likely it stays just over the channel and we stay around 18’C to 22’C, but it is within the range of possibilities that we do tap into it and reach around 25’C to 28’C.

However said hot air from Spain meeting the cooler air trying to push down from the north, will likely generate some heavy, thundery rain or thunderstorms – again more likely over the continent, but very possible for us too at some point Friday/Saturday.

In short, it is too early to be sure for next weekend, it is 7+ days away so no surprise there. It could be pleasant and dry, it could be warm or cool, it could pour down at some point, and there is a small chance of tapping into some heat. It wouldn’t surprise me if it isn’t nailed down when I next do a forecast on Monday/Tuesday.

I wish you all a good weekend, hopefully I will get time to write the summer forecast.…

Summer Photograph Request

Morning, it’s summer forecast photograph request time!

Usual rules:

  1. Must have weather. Must have summer weather of some description – there is more than one type of summer weather, alas! I choose to fit the forecast.
  2. Must be the local area.
  3. Can be from any year…as long as it is summer!
  4. Must be landscape-orientated, ie the width longer than the height. I know plenty of people ignore this when posting on Facebook, which is totally fine, crack on. But I only use landscape-orientated images.

I will donate £10 to the charity of the winner’s choice…I will be in touch with whoever I choose.

Whoever’s photograph I choose will adorn the forecast and also be the cover photograph on Facebook for the next 3 months.

My life is easier if you add them to the Facebook post but you can also e-mail them, or send by Facebook message too.

I guess I’ll be writing it this weekend.…

Monday 27th May 2024

Showery is the theme for this week, though a trend for drier in the coming weekend more likely, if not especially warm.

The general set-up to start the week sees the Azores high trying to nudge in, but there’s too much competition from a resurgent Atlantic, at least for now.

Bank Holiday Monday starts rather cloudy, some glimpses of sunshine. From around mid-morning, scattered showers will develop, some heavy, perhaps a rumble of thunder. Perhaps you’ll miss all the showers, but more likely you’ll catch a few. Fewer showers from mid-afternoon onwards, and more in the way of sunny spells towards the end of the day. Around 17’C and breezy. Clear skies at first this evening, but cloud thickening during the night with some showery rain in the latter part of the night – mostly light but the odd heavy burst possible. No lower than around 9’C.

Tuesday starts mostly cloudy with showery rain – generally light to moderate rain, though the odd heavy burst mixed in. Not the strongest weather front ever – and perhaps some sunny breaks at times. More in the way of sunny spells from around mid/late afternoon onwards, but also some showers still. Around 17’C and breezy. Still one or two scattered showers in the evening, perhaps heavy, but these will gradually fade overnight to leave clear spells. Around 11’C.

By Wednesday, our low pressure is over the North Sea. It will leave us with sunny spells, fair-weather cloud and a few scattered showers – say around a 70% chance of catching a couple, you may miss them all though and stay dry and reasonably pleasant. Reaching around 18’C in a north-westerly breeze. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

By Thursday we see high pressure to our west, with low pressure towards the Azores – not especially common but it happens.

With low pressure also to our east this means a northerly flow, maybe north-westerly, which is never amazing for temperatures – reaching around 17’C but feeling cooler in the breeze. Also plenty of heavy showers likely, maybe thundery – with sunny spells outside of the showers. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

A bit of uncertainty on details for Friday, but broadly we remain in a cooler flow, say 15’C to 19’C, some showers and likely more cloud than sunshine overall – the uncertainty is due to how the low to our east develops (or doesn’t).

By Saturday, high pressure will be trying to push in from the west, though having a hard time of it. Some uncertainty at this stage – dry is far more likely than showery/wet, cool is, well, likely – sunshine/cloud amounts are what will determine temperatures. So roughly a 40/40 split between a cloudy and cool day, with the North Sea wind causing all the cloud and temperatures around 12’C. Or a fairly sunny day, with a cool wind but around 17’C. A 20% chance instead that low pressure is close enough to our east for a showery/wet day instead.

Same kind of theme for Sunday but the odds more in favour of the sunnier outcome – say 60/40 in favour of not especially warm but sunny, 18’C – the less likely option being cloudy all/most of the day, and cool, around 13’C.

It’s one of those set-ups which tend to happen more often in May/June where Scotland has the warm sunshine, and we struggle – it wouldn’t surprise me to see 24’C in Scotland/Ireland next weekend.

Early suggestions for next week are that high pressure remains on the scene, though being centred to our west means temperatures around average at best – and the chance of cloudy mornings due to North Sea cloud are high. and it remaining cloudy and cool all day is possible.

Possible it warms up though…we’ll see but dry seems the more likely theme anyway for next week.

Hints of something cooler and more northerly for the weekend after, but that’s a long way away.…

Friday 24th May 2024

A mixed bank holiday ahead, but there will be some warm sunshine – mostly on Saturday. At least Tuesday/Wednesday gone wasn’t the bank holiday!

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

The general set-up sees high pressure to our east and north-east, and low pressure to our west pushing in over the weekend. Tuesday/Wednesday’s low is still around, over Scotland, but fading quickly.

A sunny start for Friday, but cloud will bubble up during the morning to make it mostly cloudy, but still bright for a time. Cloud will tend to break to bring sunny spells as the afternoon goes on, but still a fair amount of fair-weather cloud, and a 20% chance of a light/moderate shower later too. 17’C, maybe 18’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, though mist/fog patches possible by dawn. Down to around 8’C.

Saturday starts sunny. Some cloud will bubble up but less than today, and most likely the balance between cloud and sun will be broadly in favour of sunshine. Also some high cloud pushing in from the west later, making the sunshine hazy. I cannot totally rule out a light afternoon shower, but no more than a 5% chance. Warmer, around 21’C. Cloud thickens during the evening with outbreaks of showery rain arriving from around late evening onwards – not huge amounts of rain. Around 12’C.

Cloud and showery rain should have cleared by dawn on Sunday, or not long after. However it will very quickly be replaced by frequent heavy/very heavy showers, hail/thunder very possible. Some sunshine in between, and reaching around 19’C. Fewer showers by late afternoon, and they all should fade by mid-evening to leave a dry night with clear spells, down to around 8’C.

Bank Holiday Monday is more of the same, though fewer showers than Sunday. Some sunny spells, plenty of cloud, most places seeing at least a few showers, probably heavy, possibly thundery. Fresher once more, around 17’C. Clear skies at first overnight, becoming cloudy and perhaps some light rain later.

By Tuesday (well, by Monday really) two things are happening, the Azores high is trying to push in from the south-west, but also the jet-stream is re-invigorating.

It’s uncertain which will have more influence on Tuesday, but I suspect more likely both are influencing – so cloudy with some patchy rain is broadly the theme – but not much in the way of rain. Around 18’C or so.

Again uncertain on details for Wednesday, but probably low pressure to our north is close enough to bring some showers, perhaps a longer spell of rain, with temperatures around 18’C to 20’C.

By Thursday I think the more likely outcome sees the Azores high to our west, with a less warm north-westerly flow, a fair amount of cloud, some sunshine, some showers and temperatures around 18’C. Not especially high confidence.

The question for next weekend will be whether the Azores high can push in to bring a settled weekend, or whether low pressure will get to us first. I’d say the slight favourite is the Azores high at the moment, but some of the model runs this week have been pretty depressing so confidence is low. And even if the Azores high does push in, it may well have a fair amount of cloud underneath.

So a fairly mixed forecast – but there is some pleasant weather mixed in, especially for the Saturday of the bank holiday weekend.

Signals are pretty weak going into June, which is annoying as it is nearly time to write the summer forecast – but there remains a hint of high pressure (ie the Azores high) being close to our west to start June – which suggests average temperatures more likely than warm, though otherwise conditions uncertain as it will depend on how close it is – and whether low pressure is closer to our east and hence more influential.

Enjoy the bank holiday weekend if you can! I shall try to enjoy some sunshine on Saturday.…

Monday 20th May 2024

A mixed week ahead but staying on the warmer side.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

Early cloud this morning will quickly break up into long spells of sunshine. Some cloud again bubbling up this afternoon, and a small chance of a heavy, perhaps thundery shower developing – say a 20% chance tops. Reaching around 21’C. Clear spells in the first part of the night, though one or two scattered showers still possible – thicker low cloud again likely to spread across later in the night. Down to around 10’C.

Tuesday starts cloudy – the slack low pressure that has been to our south for over a week will be starting to develop and shift north. As it does, there will be more cloud on Tuesday with showers developing, probably heavy and possibly thundery. Some uncertainty on the exact developments – you may miss them all and stay dry, you may get caught under slow-moving showers that keep regenerating, or you may just catch a few heavy showers. Around 18’C. Likely skies slowly clear overnight, down to around 12’C.

On Wednesday we have an unusual situation of low pressure developing over Germany and heading our way – which goes against our dominant westerly weather patterns.

Unsurprisingly all the models handle this differently – it’s a rare movement so there is less history for them to go on, and hence it creates uncertainty for Wednesday/Thursday, and this has a knock-on impact for the weekend’s forecast too.

Anyway, it does look more likely than the main rain will be to our north, perhaps well to our north, and we’ll stay fairly cloudy with some sunny spells, and plenty of heavy showers developing, perhaps thundery. Plausible it could just be persistent rain, but as I mentioned, I’m pretty confident the rain will be northern UK and we’ll be heavy showers. Around 20’C, or just under. Variable cloud overnight and down to around 11’C.

Confidence is much lower for Thursday. I think low pressure is still fairly close to our north-east, though high pressure will be trying to build from the west too. Broadly speaking, probably plenty of cloud, some sunshine and some showers, potentially heavy – and around 18’C to 20’C.

Synoptically a bit of a messy picture for Friday with high pressure trying to build, but also some weak low pressure systems close by. I guess broadly similar to Thursday, a fair amount of cloud likely, some sunshine and a chance of a shower. Probably less warm, say 16’C to 18’C.

Confidence still fairly low for the weekend, so don’t be surprised if this changes nearer the time – until the models have a better handle on Wednesday’s low pressure, the weekend will be subject to change.

However, for Saturday the most likely outcome is high pressure is loosely in control.

Assuming so, sunny spells, some cloud (perhaps more cloud than sun overall), a shower possible but more likely dry, and 20’C to 22’C the more likely range.

A weak weather front likely pushes in from the west on Sunday, adding to uncertainty – more likely I’d suggest sunshine/hazy sunshine for a good portion of the day, with increased chances of cloudier skies later, and perhaps some showers. Again around the 20’C to 22’C range but I stress confidence is fairly low.

Signs of our summer friend, the Azores High, trying to push in from Monday – so more warm sunshine with a chance of a heavy shower is the more likely outcome for Monday, and at least the first half of next week – perhaps becoming very warm as the week goes on, but keeping the chance of heavy, thundery showers too.

Seems pretty decent to me.…

Friday 17th May 2024

Some warm sunshine…but also some heavy showers.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

So the general picture sees a slack area of low pressure over western Europe – it’s been around all week and it’s not really going anywhere for now. However, it does allow for a warmer flow.

Reasonably sunny to start Friday, cloud will bubble up from around late morning onwards, a 20% chance of a shower too, but there will still be sunny spells also. Warm, around 21’C. Clear skies at first overnight, but cloud spreading across from the east towards dawn, perhaps some showers too. No lower than around 12’C.

Saturday starts cloudy, perhaps foggy in some places, some showers possible. It will brighten up, timing a bit uncertain, perhaps by lunchtime but likely by late afternoon at the latest, we have decent amounts of sunshine. However, the sunshine will trigger a few heavy, thundery showers – around a 30% chance of catching one later in the afternoon/evening. Reaching around 20’C, maybe 21’C. Heavy, thundery showers remain possible until late evening – still only around a 30-40% chance of catching one. Clear skies otherwise, until mist/fog/low cloud develops towards dawn. No lower than 11’C.

Sunday sees early mist/fog/low cloud lifting into good spells of sunshine. Some fair-weather cloud bubbling up but mostly a rather sunny day. On a Sunday too, how delightful! Warm, around 22’C – maybe a tad more. Clear skies for much of the night, but again low cloud and some mist/fog patches spreading in from the North Sea in the latter part of the night. Down to around 9’C.

Monday starts with mist/fog/low cloud. This will break up, a bit slower than the last two days but from around mid-morning onwards there will be plenty of sunshine, and some fair-weather cloud. A 10% chance of a shower. Still on the warm side, around 21’C. Cloud likely moves in from the east again later in the night, clear skies before, down to around 9’C.

Little change synoptically by Tuesday – the slack area of low pressure over western Europe edges a bit further north, and increases our chance of showers once more.

More uncertainty by this point, but Tuesday is more likely along the sunny spells and scattered heavy showers theme – and still on the warm side, broadly around 20’C.

Suggestions that by Wednesday, the low pressure starts developing more – fed by warmth over central/eastern Europe. Certainly this would lead to very wet conditions over Germany, Belgium, etc – possible it gets this far west, but uncertain at this stage. If not, then sunny spells and heavy showers would be more likely instead.

Things get more complicated by Thursday with high pressure trying to push in from the west, and the German low pressure system trying to push further towards us from the east.

Slightly more likely I think the low pressure system will be around, so cloud and rain at times on Thursday, though trending drier through Friday. Not especially high confidence though.

And for the bank holiday weekend?

Highly uncertain.

However the very slight favourite outcome would be for high pressure to be over the UK, or close enough, with good spells of warm sunshine.

Say maybe 35% chance dry, warm and sunny all weekend, 25% chance warm with heavy showers, 25% chance mixed – some sunny days, some wet days, 10% chance washout, 5% chance heatwave. Something broadly along those splits.

Probably a return to heavy showers after the bank holiday weekend.

Enjoy the weekend…and the sunshine…at times!…

Monday 13th May 2024

Low pressure is on the way, but it won’t all be rain and showers…some warm sunshine in the mix too.

Thanks to Fiona for the photograph.

So the general picture sees low pressure moving in from the west, though a slightly weaker feature than previously expected, moving slower and a but further south.

Today will be often cloudy as a weather front approaches, but there will be sunshine at times. Reaching around 19’C, maybe 20’C. Rather breezy. Rain will arrive during the evening and will make slow progress east overnight, some heavyish bursts possible but mostly light to moderate rain. A mild night, around 14’C.

Tuesday starts cloudy, and possibly still wet – some uncertainty over when the rain will clear as the rain band will be moving very slowly. Becoming brighter in the afternoon with some sunny spells, and the odd shower possible. Fresher, around 17’C. Rather breezy once more. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Wednesday sees quite a lot of cloud bubble up for a time in the morning, perhaps with a shower but then broadly it should become sunnier and more pleasant. Reaching around 19’C – pretty decent. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

A bit of uncertainty for Thursday – this slack low pressure is still in charge, and it looks like an area of rain will push in from the east – but at the moment it looks like that area of rain will be a bit further north. Assuming so, then more likely we’ll see hazy sunshine spells and some scattered heavy showers. Around 19’C, assuming the rain is further north as currently projected, 15’C if not.

Again some uncertainty for Friday, but more likely we’ll see sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud and a chance of a heavy, thundery shower or two. Perhaps instead something cloudier, with showers unlikely. Assuming the sunnier outcome, and with us importing some warmer continental air, then getting back up to around 21’C.

This slack low pressure system will remain close by over the weekend.

Exactly where is uncertain, and hence details on the weekend will take another 2-3 days to determine, but broadly it will be a case of sunny spells and scattered heavy showers, perhaps very heavy/thundery. A small chance said showers developing into a weather front and becoming general rain. Generally staying warm, around 20’C or so.

Some suggestions that it becomes drier once more in the following week…whether it lasts until the bank holiday weekend is highly uncertain this far out, but there is hope.

Have a good week, I should be back on Friday morning.…

Friday 10th May 2024

3 days of summer then back to unsettled. Just about 3 days anyway…Sunday is a bit of a close call.

Thanks to Jo for the photograph.

It has been reassuring that this warm and sunny spell was forecasted a good 7-10 days in advance with fair confidence, likewise the return to unsettled for next week.

We continue with high pressure in charge – in a good position for both sunshine and warmth too.

Broadly speaking, today will be sunny though with some high cloud making it a tad hazy at times, also some general patches of cloud developing for a time early/mid-afternoon. Very warm, we should squeeze 24’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, though a chance of some mist/fog/low cloud by dawn, down to around 9’C.

Saturday sees any early mist/fog/low cloud lift, leaving long spells of sunshine, though again some high cloud around making it a little hazy at times, and some fair-weather cloud likely bubbling up early/mid afternoon. Very warm, 24’C, maybe 25’C. High/mid-level cloud becoming more extensive overnight, with milder temperatures, around 13’C.

Sunday starts with quite a bit of cloud, though still hazy sunshine. This should break up to allow more in the way of sunshine/hazy sunshine for the rest of the day, though with some cloud bubbling up and a 20% chance of a heavy shower. Some uncertain on where showers will develop (they will) – but for now I think not so likely around here. Just be aware there is a risk of a downpour. I can use the h-word for the first time this year, likely quite hot, around 25’C to 26’C, perhaps 27’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Monday starts bright with hazy sunshine, but gradually clouds over as rain spreads in from the west. Some uncertainty as to when the rain arrives, I’d suggest midday to 3pm as an approximate start time, likely heavy at times, and lasting well into the evening, perhaps even into the night. Warm to start, say 18’C though very approximate, cooler as the day goes on and rain sets in.

By Tuesday we see low pressure sat over Ireland and the west of the UK – with high pressure to our east stopping it going far. Normality resumed.

Sunny spells and showers, breezy too. Showers possibly on the heavy side, though uncertain at this stage. Breezy and temperatures somewhere between 15’C and 17’C, give or take.

Similar story for Wednesday and Thursday, sunny spells and showers, showers likely heavy and possibly thundery. Temperatures broadly in the range of 14’C to 18’C, though Thursday the cooler of the two days more likely.

Low pressure will be a weaker affair for Friday and into next weekend, but with the strong sun at this time of the year, it will still generate plenty of heavy showers, possibly thundery – and there is a chance they could merge into longer spells of heavy rain at times.

That said, positioning of the low pressure will be key to shower distribution, and this is still uncertain for next weekend so you may get some time with fewer showers, more sunshine and it could be reasonably pleasant at times, temperatures more likely in the range of 16’C to 18’C.

Very tentative signs of high pressure building in the latter part of the month, maybe in time for the bank holiday weekend, maybe not.

Further ahead into June and July, signals are fairly weak (not exactly unusual) but broadly I’d suggest a fair mixture of weather, some pleasant spells with warm sunshine, but also showery spells too. If anything, there is a suggestion of later in the summer being drier/sunnier/hotter than earlier in the summer – which is a reversal of patterns in recent years. Not sure I can remember the last year where August was the best summer month…not saying it will be this year, but some early indications are hinting at this.

Enjoy the sunshine and warmth…do make the most of it!…

Tuesday 7th May 2024

Six days of summer! Well, much warmer, mostly dry, fairly sunny…not perfection but it will more than do!

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph…been in my inbox for some time!

So the general picture sees high pressure building – not the strongest or cleanest build, but sufficient for broadly pleasant weather.

Sunny this morning, cloud will bubble up from around lunchtime – likely more cloud than sunshine in the afternoon but still some sunny spells. Around a 20% chance of a shower. Warm, 20’C or so. Clear skies for most of the night, though some mist/fog/low cloud spreading in by dawn. Down to around 7’C.

Wednesday starts cloudy and misty, perhaps some fog. This fairly quickly lifts into sunny spells and fair-weather cloud for the rest of the day. Warm, 20’C, maybe 21’C – some high cloud later in the day too making it a bit hazier. Quite a bit of high cloud overnight, one or two mist/fog patches by dawn in more sheltered spots, and down to around 9’C.

Thursday starts fairly sunny. Again some high cloud around and quite a bit of fair-weather cloud, but staying pleasant with sunny spells. Warm, 22’C should be reached. High cloud overnight, a small chance of mist/fog patches by dawn, down to around 9’C.

Friday sees hazy sunshine, with high cloud dominant most of the day, and a bit of fair-weather cloud. Warm, 22’C, maybe 23’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Gosh it’s a while since the forecast has been this quick to write!

By Saturday high pressure is weakening, and low pressure is just starting to nudge in – but we’ll score a pleasant weekend first. OMG, I know.

Good spells of sunshine – some fair-weather cloud likely to bubble up but overall very pleasant. Very warm, 23’C, maybe 24’C – I wouldn’t rule out a 25’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Sunday again sees good spells of sunshine, just a bit of fair-weather cloud bubbling up. I cannot totally rule out an afternoon shower, but unlikely as it stands. More likely around 24’C or 25’C – though a degree or two either way possible.

Rain and showers return next week, perhaps with thunderstorms. Temperatures lower, but still warmish.

Enjoy whilst you can!…

Bank Holiday Update

I thought I’d give a quick update, as previously I left it uncertain for Sunday/Monday as I wasn’t quite sure what the low pressure to our south would do.

This is going to stay a weak affair, and stay further south, so less of an impact than it could have been, though still some impact, mostly for Monday.

Today’s forecast hasn’t really changed – sunny spells, fair-weather cloud and some scattered heavy showers developing – say a 60% chance of catching one or two, perhaps a rumble of thunder. Around 16’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, though mist/fog developing in places around dawn. Down to around 6’C.

Sunday starts sunny, once any mist/fog patches clear. Cloud will build from the south, though some hazy sunny spells will remain. Cloud likely thick enough for some patchy light (ish) showers in the afternoon. Warmer, 18’C, maybe 19’C. Showery rain spreading north in the latter part of the night.

Bank holiday Monday sees the low pressure nudge further north, showery rain, sometimes heavy will be the theme, especially in the morning. Some uncertainty on details for the afternoon, either further showery rain, or instead some limited sunny spells but with heavy, thundery showers. Around 16’C at best.

And then…warm/very warm, dry and some sunshine (though some cloud too)…which should last until next Sunday.

Full update either Monday/Tuesday. Enjoy the slightly improved weekend weather (bar Monday!).…