Monday 29th April 2024

Warmer rain is on the way. But also some warmer sunshine at times too.

Thanks to Debbie for the photograph.

The general picture sees an unusual evolution this week, we start with low pressure close to our west with much warmer air to our east – the movement of the low pressure to our south will lead us to tap into the warmth to our east, but low pressure being close by will mean rain/showers at times – and likely some heavy.

But when the sun shines (somewhat), it will be fairly warm.

The forecast quickly becomes uncertain, and I’m a little pushed for time/energy so the Thursday morning update (assuming I do it then) will be more helpful on bank holiday weekend details.

So for Tuesday we’ll be sandwiched between a band of rain not that far to our west, and showers to our east – and it will be a sunny sandwich, at least to start. Some more cloud as the day goes on, and the chance of a shower later in the day, though more likely it stays dry. 17’C, maybe 18’C, though on the breezy side. Cloud tending to thicken overnight, down to around 9’C – it should stay dry, though a stray shower plausible.

Wednesday starts fairly cloudy, a small chance of some early mist/fog patches but they’ll clear quickly. The morning sees quite a lot of cloud, but with some hazy sunshine – perhaps some light showers also. During the afternoon showers will develop and may turn into general heavy rain – but uncertainty on that aspect. Reaching somewhere between 17’C and 20’C. In the evening and overnight, there’s a chance of some very heavy/torrential showers moving up from France/Belgium, potentially thundery – but quite what track they take, assuming the develop is uncertain.

Thursday is even more uncertain. Any early showery rain should clear west, probably it remains cloudy or fairly cloudy with some hazy sunshine. In the afternoon there is a fair chance of more heavy, possible thundery showers developing, turning into general heavy showery rain – but I stress uncertainty on this development. Temperatures somewhere between 17’C and 20’C. Showers/showery rain probable overnight.

Again, low confidence for Friday but the slightly more likely outcome sees a fairly cloudy day, showers/showery rain possible in the morning but this tending to move north during the day, with hazy sunshine possible as the day goes on. Lower temperatures, somewhere between 13’C and 16’C more likely.

Day-to-day details are uncertain for the bank holiday weekend, but we can rule some things out now – an Arctic blast won’t happen, neither will a plume of warmer air from the south.

More likely we see low pressure still close by, heavy showers at least some of the days, if not every day, perhaps a spell of persistent rain – but also sunny spells at times too. Temperatures broadly in the range of 14’C to 18’C, I wouldn’t rule out a 20’C if we get a dry and sunny day – likewise I wouldn’t rule out a 10’C if we get some outright persistent rain one day.

Suggestions of it becoming warmer…and…and…you won’t believe it…drier, the week after. Still a long way away, but currently the more likely outcome. Maybe I won’t need to book a holiday for May.…

Friday 26th April 2024

Slightly milder…but wetter. Something warmer next week, albeit with showers/rain at times.

Thanks to Helena for the suitable photograph.

Starting with the general picture which sees a fairly weak area of low pressure over the North Sea, with another one slipping past to our west – towards Spain/Portugal, which then spins back north in the second half of the weekend.

A rather cloudy day for Friday, some brightness at times, though if anything cloud thickening as the day goes on. At least it should remain dry – too much cloud for showers to develop, and general rain is to our south. Around 11’C in an easterly breeze. The band of rain to our south will slowly move north overnight, some showery bits before midnight, tending to be more persistent later in the night though still showery in nature, so possible you don’t see much rain. Around 6’C.

Saturday starts cloudy with showery rain in places. This will drift north and fizzle out during the morning – generally it will remain cloudy, some occasional sunshine possible in the afternoon, showers possible also. Tending to be a bit milder, say around 12’C – if sunshine amounts surprise then maybe a 14’C. Showers in the evening developing into general rain, as low pressure moves north, likely heavy for a time overnight, with an outside chance of a rumble of thunder. Around 8’C.

Sunday probably starts wet – some uncertainty over exactly where the main rain will be in the morning – at best you’ll just have some light and patchy rain to come, at worst still 3, 6, maybe 9 hours of persistent rain to come. Gradually the cloud and rain will clear north, and you should see some sunshine before the day is out, depending on what time the rain clears. Maximum temperatures between 10’C and 12’C – depending on what time the rain clears. Clear skies overnight, down to around 3’C – perhaps a frost in the most sheltered spots.

By Monday we have a brand new low pressure moving in from the north-west – and for bonus points it takes our weekend low pressure into its circulation too.

It will actually be a reasonable day on Monday, with sunny spells, fair weather cloud and a chance of some scattered showers. One consequence of the weekend low is much warmer air over much of Europe, to the east of where the low pressure was, so we can get a slight influence too – up to 16’C. Clear skies and down to around 5’C overnight.

Low pressure remains close to our west for Tuesday, but more likely it is a reasonable day for us. Some uncertainty on details, but broadly sunny spells, some cloud at times, and some showers very possible. And around 16’C to 19’C.

Confidence has to remain very low on details from here, but it looks like we are going to get a warm but unstable easterly – tapping into the warmth over central Europe that the weekend low pressure caused.

Likely there will be heavy showers/rain at some points midweek onwards, but when raining it will still be mild and around 14’C, in sunshine then up to 20’C will be possible.

An interesting set-up, and for warmth-seekers like myself, a vast improvement on this week, even if it pours down!

The bank holiday weekend really could be anything right now. An Arctic blast is possible, likewise a plume of very warm air from the south – or anything in between. If I had to make a guess, and it is just a guess, then broadly warmish with showers is the slightly more likely outcome.…

Tuesday 23rd April 2024

Chilly this week – milder for the weekend but with heavier showers. January continues…it was just 8’C yesterday.

Thanks to Fiona for the photograph (and other people…nice to have a choice in my inbox again!).

So to begin the week, we have high pressure in control (aha) to our north-west, continuing this chilly northerly/north-easterly flow.

Cloudy for a good portion of Tuesday with occasional light rain/drizzle, mostly in the morning. Some sunny spells developing during the afternoon, still a chance of a shower, and reaching 11’C, maybe 12’C in a fairly light northerly (ish) breeze. A mixture of clear spells and cloudy spells overnight, cloudy spells perhaps with a touch of drizzle. Down to around 3’C.

Plenty of cloud around on Wednesday once more, some sunny spells but generally far outweighed by cloud. One or two scattered showers, they should be fairly light if you catch one. Chilly in the northerly breeze, 11’C. Some clear spells overnight, but also a level of high cloud developing – down to around 1’C with a chance of a frost, especially in more sheltered spots.

Thursday starts with some spells of hazy sunshine, but also some areas of cloud. Generally cloud amounts increasing from mid-morning onwards, though still some sunny spells. A few scattered showers too – a bit of uncertainty on this aspect, but if you catch one (or more) then they could be quite hefty. Temperatures perhaps up a tad, 12’C, maybe 13’C. Showers still possible in the evening but more likely dry overnight, with some cloud around but on the chilly side once more.

Things start to change on Friday as low pressure slips down from the north-west towards north Spain/Portugal – before spinning around and heading to us on the weekend.

Details pretty sketchy for Friday as it will depend on how much influence the low pressure to our west can have from that distance, and how much cloud there was overnight. I’d suggest some on the cloudier side of the spectrum is more likely, with a scattering of showers, and temperatures around 12’C but very give and take on everything here!

Some uncertainty for the weekend on details too. Low pressure will certainly be in charge, centred over the UK or just to the south – and there will be rain and heavy showers at times.

So the more likely outcome for Saturday, at around an 80% chance, is that spells of rain, perhaps heavy, move up from the south, along with milder air too – temperatures more likely in the 12’C to 14’C range.

There is a chance instead, say around 20%, that low pressure is still a bit to our south, and we get some sunny spells and some warmth, say 18’C but still with a chance of showers.

Sunday low pressure will still be around somewhere, so further rain/showers should be expected at some point, if not all day, perhaps quite windy – temperatures could be anywhere from 10’C to 18’C – and (like rain distribution) will depend on where low pressure situates itself.

For next week, the low pressure likely hangs around for Monday with further showers but milder/quite warm in any sunshine – and then is joined by another low pressure from the north-west on Tuesday to bring more showers for the middle of the week.

Surprisingly, there is a possible route to warmth because of this low pressure – slow-moving low pressure systems over the south of the UK/France will pump up much warmer air into central Europe, and that could then make its way west later next week.

It would be an unusual way to get to warmth, but I’ve seen it before and models are flagging it as a possible outcome. I wouldn’t get too excited yet…it’s 10 days away and an unusual pattern.…

Friday 19th April 2024

A cool week ahead with notably below-average temperatures – nothing outright wet, and often dry but some showers around.

Photograph is from me this week as I cannot seem to access my Facebook messages – at least the trains here do go to Reading.

The general picture sees high pressure in charge, a rare feat in recent months, but it is to our west so we have a cooler north-westerly flow.

A fairly cloudy day for today, a weak weather front may bring a little light/moderate patchy rain during the morning, then a cluster of showers will spread down early/mid afternoon which could be quite heavy – though also more in the way of sunshine this afternoon too. We should squeeze 14’C around lunchtime, but cooler in afternoon showers – and quite windy too later. Mostly clear skies overnight and a chilly night, down to around 2’C – a frost possible in more sheltered spots.

Saturday starts sunny. Plenty of cloud will build from mid-morning onwards, though there will still be some bright/sunny spells at times – though likely we are on the cloudier side of the spectrum overall. Around 12’C in a cool northerly breeze. Quite cloudy overnight though some clear spells, down to around 4’C.

Sunday looks on the cloudy side for much of the day, some brightness at times, but also some light rain/drizzle possible at times. During the afternoon it looks like the cloud will edge west to leave a sunnier finish – though timing uncertain. Around 11’C. Clear skies likely overnight, and assuming so then down to around 0’C with a frost.

Monday starts cold but sunny. Cloud then spreads south with patchy light rain for the rest of the day. Maximum temperatures will depend on how long it stays sunny for – 12’C at best, but if the cloud arrives by mid-morning then maybe only reaching 7’C or so. Yuck. Staying mostly cloudy with patchy light rain/drizzle overnight, around 6’C.

No real change by Tuesday – high pressure remains to our west, and we stay in this cool northerly flow.

Most likely Tuesday will be rather cloudy, some brightness, some showers too. Reaching around 11’C.

Wednesday most likely stays on the cloudier side of the spectrum, some sunny spells possible, light showers possible though less likely than on Tuesday. Around 12’C.

Thursday is a while away, but more likely we stay on the cool side, sunshine and showers currently the more likely outcome.

Changes probably afoot for Friday and into next weekend, but not exactly joyful ones – low pressure returning so showers becoming heavier and more frequent, a longer spell of rain possible – but we might draw in some warmer air too, say around 15’C, maybe 18’C by Sunday.

Not especially high confidence yet, this signal for low pressure dropping down and sucking up warmer air is pretty new – until two days ago I was working on the assumption that this cool, cloudy weather would continue well into May.

However, it would still make sense with this broad-scale pattern of high pressure more likely further north – and after a short warmer and showery spell next weekend (assuming it happens) could then lead us back into cooler, cloudier easterlies come early May.

Blame the sudden stratospheric warming event that happened in March. Maybe I should have an affiliate account for a holiday company?…

Monday 15th April 2024

Cool and showery to start the week, but becoming drier and…somewhat warmer?

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

Today starts cloudy as a weather front spreads south-east, bringing some showery rain, likely heavy/very heavy for a short spell before it clears mid-morning. Sunny spells and scattered showers follow, some heavy, a small chance of hail/thunder too. Winds fairly strong but notably gusty in showers. 11’C at best. Some cloud and some clear spells overnight, a stray shower still possible and remaining windy – down to 6’C or so.

The general picture for Tuesday sees our low pressure slide into the continent, with high pressure trying to build in from the west.

Plenty of cloud in the morning and some showers – showers likely continue all day, more likely you get at least a couple but maybe you’ll miss them. Gradually sunshine amounts will increase in the afternoon. Still in the cool northerly wind, 12’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, though a weak feature will bring some more cloud and a chance of a shower during the early hours, before reverting to clear skies. Down to around 3’C.

Wednesday starts sunny, but cloud will fairly quickly build up with more cloud than sunshine overall, and some showers likely break out. Some uncertainty on the extent and intensity of showers, but more likely getting at least a couple of showers and they could be heavy. On the cool side again, around 10’C, maybe 11’C but at least the northerly wind now more a breeze. Mostly clear skies overnight – down to around 2’C with a frost possible in more sheltered spots.

Thursday starts sunny but again cloud will build from around mid-morning, and it will be on the cloudier side of the spectrum for the rest of the day – though some bright/sunny spells. Remaining dry though, and around 12’C. A weather front spreads south overnight bringing some mostly light rain/drizzle. Down to around 7’C.

Friday looks fairly cloudy – some brightness at times, but also some showers possible. Temperatures ticking up a little, 13’C, maybe 14’C. Cloud tending to clear overnight to clear spells – down to around 4’C.

For the weekend, high pressure continues to try to nudge in from the west.

It’s still uncertain as to whether it gets far enough east to cut off the cooler northerly flow – very fine margins between 10’C and 15’C in this set-up. Either way, still probably quite a lot of cloud, some sunny spells, and probably dry. Likely chilly overnight.

Likewise for Sunday, though the difference between the two equally possible outcomes is starker – and still very fine margins.

In the scenario where high pressure doesn’t quite get far enough across, cloudier, perhaps a shower and around 12’C. In the scenario where it does, sunny and 20’C.

At the moment it’s a coin toss between the outcomes – the model I trust more is going for the cooler solution, and has been pretty consistent – but my head says it is undoing the progress of high pressure from the west and the warmer solution is perhaps more likely. So put both judgements together and therefore I make it 50/50.

Next week does look more likely to see more cooler flows – dry more likely than wet, cloudy more likely than sunny, with high pressure close to our north – not a friendly position for those looking for some spring warmth (do I need to book another holiday?!), but at least likely dry.

Next forecast on Friday morning.…

Friday 12th April 2024

Briefly some warmth, but then notably cooler for next week. Less rain than there has been.

Thanks to Jo for the photograph.

So the general picture for today sees high pressure in control over France, Spain and into central Europe – and just nudging into the south of the UK.

It’s a warm set-up with the flow of air from Africa, but there will be plenty of high cloud around, making the sunshine often, if not always, hazy. Reaching 19’C, maybe 20’C. High cloud overnight, down to around 9’C.

For Saturday we just about stay in the warmer air, again hazy sunshine all day with the cloud thickening in the afternoon as a weak weather front approaches. Reaching around 19’C – not bad at all. The weak weather front crosses early evening, bringing cloud and the odd spot of rain. Mostly clear skies overnight and down to around 6’C.

Hazy sunshine for Sunday morning, cloud thickening for the afternoon but staying dry. We’ll have lost the warmer air – reaching around 13’C in a westerly breeze. Clear spells but becoming windy overnight, down to around 5’C. Showers possible before dawn.

Time for change on Monday as low pressure moves down from the north-west.

Heavy showers or heavy showery rain moves south-east during the morning, pretty much from dawn, give or take. Sunshine and showers following for the afternoon. Reaching around 11’C but feeling colder in the strong winds – notably gusty at times. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, down to around 3’C.

Tuesday remains in the cool flow – some uncertainty over where low pressure will be centred and hence the frequency of showers – it may be a case of frequent heavy showers, occasional showers or no showers. Generally fairly cloudy though some sunny spells. Reaching around 12’C. Another chilly night likely, down to around 4’C.

If anything Wednesday looks colder, with temperatures around 9’C in a more northerly flow. Uncertainty on conditions – whether it be something drier, or more showery. Overnight frost possible if a lack of cloud cover.

Into Thursday and Friday, more likely high pressure builds from the west. Uncertain on details, though more likely on the cooler side of the spectrum, say 9’C to 12’C, also more likely on the cloudier side of the spectrum though hopefully some sunny spells. Overnight frosts possible, depending on cloud cover.

The more likely outcome for next weekend would see high pressure continue to build in from the west, hopefully cutting off the cooler northerly flows and allowing something in the range of 14’C to 17’C – nothing special, but an improvement. Possible that it stays on the cool side instead, something warmer unlikely but not impossible.

Probably dry to end the month.

Early suggestions for May involve a sometimes showery month, but also some dry and warm spells. Nothing especially unusual currently looks on the cards.

June still looks drier, sunnier and warmer/hotter than normal. July and August perhaps too, but maybe I’m hopecasting a bit there. Enjoy your two warm days.…

Monday 8th April 2024

A mixed week ahead – but this does include something warmer and drier to end. Spring is definitely here.

Thanks to Catherine for the photograph.

So we start the week with low pressure close to the north of Scotland, and a little secondary low powering up to our south-west, and heading our way.

Mostly it will be quite grey today with lots of mid-level cloud, though this should allow some bright spells with hazy sunshine at times. Reaching around 16’C, perhaps a little more. Between mid-afternoon and early evening, an area of heavy showers will spread up from the south-west, perhaps thundery – but showers so maybe you’ll miss them. Mostly cloudy overnight, a few clear spells, the odd bit of light/moderate patchy rain around, especially towards dawn – but the wind the main story, with strong winds developing. Down to around 7’C.

Tuesday starts cloudy with bits and pieces of rain – mostly light/moderate though the odd heavy shower mixed in possibly – I stress the patchy nature. From around lunchtime onwards, slowly seeing more in the way of sunny spells, still a chance of a shower. Around 12’C and winds remaining strong. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 4’C though the wind fading.

Wednesday starts bright with hazy sunshine but cloud will thicken with rain arriving by late morning/lunchtime. Light/moderate rain – not expecting anything heavy, clearing around late afternoon/early evening. Around 12’C and windy once more. Remaining cloudy in the evening and overnight, with occasional light rain, staying around 12’C.

Thursday sees a ridge of high pressure building over the south of the UK – still a lot of cloud to start the day, and some uncertainty as to whether it will break up. Certainly the morning looks cloudy, still some patchy light rain – then the cloud potentially breaks up in the afternoon, the slightly more likely outcome – if it does, then 20’C will easily be reached, if it stays cloudy then 16’C is more realistic. Breezy. Fairly cloudy overnight, around 12’C.

By Friday high pressure is building fairly strongly over the south of the UK, the upper air is warmer than normal, the source of the air is warm. Alas, the jetstream is close to our north and the potential for cloud remains.

So I think more likely it starts cloudy, more likely it becomes sunny – perhaps with long spells of sunshine, but I do stress some uncertainty over cloud amounts throughout the day. I can promise dry. 18’C, 19’C should be reached – 20’C, maybe 21’C if we get long spells of sunshine. Breezy. Potentially the day almost everyone is waiting for…or so it seems! Down to around 10’C overnight.

Can it hang on for Saturday? Yes, just about though increased chances of high cloud making the sunshine hazy, and also some lower-level cloud later in the day perhaps. Otherwise bright with at least some hazy sunshine, still breezy, and temperatures between 18’C and 22’C.

Sunday is more uncertain – more likely a weak weather front overnight will have introduced cooler air. Low confidence, but a fair day seems more likely, some sunny spells, some cloud, a chance of a shower – and temperatures somewhere between 12’C and 16’C. Not impossible that there is a spell of rain instead.

Early next week looks like a cooler north-westerly flow – perhaps even a full-on northerly Arctic blast with wintry showers – perhaps!

The trend towards the end of April should be towards high pressure building close by, with drier conditions more likely. Too far away to know where high pressure might set up, and hence temperatures and sunshine/cloud amounts – I think warmer flows less likely than average/cooler flows though. We’ll see, there could easily be a mix as is standard for this time of year.

At least there’s some warm days to look forward to! Have a good week.…

Wednesday 3rd April 2024

I had a request to bring the sunshine and warmth back with me from Sicily…well, I kind of managed the warmth but there’s plenty more rain and showers to come.

Photograph is from me, as I needed something with some gloom!

Today starts cloudy and dull – the main rain has cleared away but there will still be bits and pieces of light rain/drizzle around, perhaps some mist too. Some sunny spells from around lunchtime onwards, one or two scattered showers too. Around 14’C, maybe 15’C. Becoming windy too. Clear spells at first this evening, but a band of heavy showers crossing mid/late evening, followed by more clear spells, followed by another band of heavy/very heavy showers towards dawn. Down to around 9’C.

By Thursday we are still dominated by this low pressure system close to our south-west – and which is once again starting to pull much warmer air into Europe – many countries in central/eastern Europe saw their hottest ever March day this weekend gone. I saw 31’C in Sicily…which seems a tad crazy.

Thursday starts with an area of heavy/very heavy showers. This clears fairly quickly to some sunny spells, but plenty of cloud and a fair scattering of showers, perhaps quite heavy. Quite warm in any sunny spells, 15’C, maybe 16’C and quite windy too, especially in showers. Cloudy in the evening with mostly light rain, becoming heavier but showery rain after midnight. A mild night but windy too, 12’C.

Showery rain quickly clears on Friday to sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud and some scattered showers. Windy to start the day, breezy afterwards but also quite warm, 17’C, maybe 18’C. Cloud thickening as the afternoon goes on, with some patchy and mostly light rain in the evening. Mostly cloudy and dry for the rest of the night, in a mild southerly wind – no lower than 13’C.

Saturday morning sees us tap into this unusually warm air.

A fairly unusual day – and not just because it will be dry for a fair portion of the day. Hazy sunshine and warm, 18’C should be reached, perhaps 20’C – but combined with very strong winds, gusting 40mph, perhaps more. One or two showers possible in the afternoon, or more likely evening, as fresher air pushes east. Down to around 10’C overnight.

A bit of uncertainty for Sunday, but broadly sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud and a few scattered showers – around 15’C or so – more notably the low pressure system sat to our south-west for the last 10 days or so, circulating and generating cut-off lows, finally moves north.

Alas, the next low pressure system will be on it’s way for Monday. Timing uncertain as to when rain arrives, so perhaps we squeeze a nice/warmish morning out first…or even afternoon if rain arrives in the evening/overnight.

Is there any hope for change? Hope…yes, but expectation not quite yet there.

It does look like the jetstream should shift north next week somewhat, and also it seems like high pressure is going to build over Spain and try to push north – so I think a trend to warmer weather, but with a mixture of pleasant days, and wet/showery days seems more likely as next week progresses and into next weekend.

The signal for April to be a warmer and wetter than normal month is strong (more records broken?) though there are certainly hints that the latter third of April should be drier too.

Improvements! I’m a bit out of sync with forecasts (and everything else in life) so I guess the next one will be this weekend.…