Friday 29th March 2024

Confirm that it is warm and sunny in Sicily. Confirm that it is not so in England, but actually we’ll squeeze a couple of half-decent days out, at least compared to recently.

Thanks to Andy for the photograph – sent in some time ago, but about as relevant an unused photograph as I can find!

So, Good Friday starts fairly cloudy with some showers around. Some sunny spells too, but further heavy and blustery showers will develop, most likely catching at least a few showers, perhaps with a rumble of thunder. Gusty winds, reaching around 12’C. Showers fading from around mid-afternoon, with increasing amounts of sunshine – and the wind easing too. Dry with reasonable clear skies overnight, chilly, down to around 3’C.

For Saturday, we are still controlled by this area of low pressure close to our west which has been there a few days and will only slowly recent – causing it to be cool and showery/wet in western Europe, but much warmer to the east.

Actually a reasonable day on Saturday for us – rain not too far to the east but this means hazy skies at times for us, otherwise fairly sunny, some fair-weather cloud and a small chance of a shower. 13’C, maybe 14’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, some mist/fog patches by dawn, down to around 4’C.

Easter Sunday also looks reasonable. Quite a lot of cloud at times, some early mist/fog too, one or two scattered showers – say a 30% chance of catching one. But also some sunny spells. Temperatures around 13’C or so, though if sunshine amounts surprise then maybe 15’C. Cloud thickening overnight with rain likely – though some uncertainty on timing/distribution.

Easter Monday is tricky in terms of details, but low pressure will bring rain or showers at times – perhaps brighter in the afternoon but still with some heavy showers around. A fairly broad range of possible outcomes – perhaps rain all day, perhaps bright with just the odd shower, but something in between as per the previous sentence seems more likely. Around 12’C give or take.

Tuesday looks more or less sunshine and showers, though on the sunnier side of the spectrum. Around 12’C, give or take. Rain probable in the evening and overnight – timing uncertain at this stage.

Wednesday sees rain clearing to brighter skies (with the timing uncertain proviso still in place).

And to finish next week, it looks like things become more mobile again, which means low pressure systems moving through rather than sat to our west. Wet, windy but very mild.

Not impossible that we squeeze a quite warm day or two late next week or next weekend, depending on timing/track of low pressure systems, but rain/showers far more likely.

Tentative signs that things settle down around mid-April…only tentative right now.

Guess I better go enjoy the Sicilian sunshine before I have to come back to the rain! Happy Easter/happy long weekend, delete as appropriate.…

Tuesday 26th March 2024

Probably a short update as I’m on holiday and have stuff to do, but also you probably don’t want to hear about more unsettled weather!

Thanks to Christel for the photograph.

Today starts cloudy, some brightness possible at first but outbreaks of rain will spread up from the south during the morning, becoming persistent and quite heavy in the afternoon. Around 10’C. Rain slowly clears north during the evening, some clear skies overnight and down to around 5’C.

The general picture for Wednesday sees low pressure close to our west…and it won’t really move anywhere for a week or so.

Sunny to start, but a band of cloud and rain will then spread east, roughly around late morning with 2-3 hours of rain, though a little uncertainty on timing. Sunny spells and showers will follow for the rest of the afternoon, perhaps heavy, a small chance of thunder/hail. Around 10’C, with fairly strong winds in the rain, and gusty in any showers that follow. Another band of showery rain, likely on the heavy size, spreading across late evening/overnight – again timing a little uncertain. On the chilly side, 4’C.

Thursday sees further heavy showers, perhaps merging into longer spells of heavy rain, more likely in the morning if so. Some occasional sunshine but heavy showers really the theme, thunder/hail possible. 10’C and fairly strong winds once more. Further heavy showers overnight, down to around 7’C.

Good Friday won’t be good weather, but a bit more sunshine, and fewer showers – though still plenty of showers. Tending to be drier later in the afternoon, and temperatures up a tad to 12’C or so. Still quite windy. Generally cloudy overnight – a small chance of rain, but most likely it is to the east of the UK. Down to around 6’C, give or take.

Not 100% confidence for Saturday, but the more likely outcome is sunny spells and scattered heavy/very heavy showers, thunder possible. That said, not everywhere seeing showers, and with temperatures around 14’C, maybe 15’C – it should be quite pleasant.

The more likely outcome for Easter Sunday sees sunny spells and scattered heavy showers – and around 15’C. It could be worse.

And it probably will be worse, as Easter Monday looks like seeing heavy rain.

Further rain/showers expected next week, and temperatures perhaps below normal too. Joy. At least it looks like I’ll get 4 days of sunshine here in Palermo…and 28’C by Sunday! Rain today and tomorrow for me also, alas.…

Friday 22nd March 2024

Well I hope you enjoyed the dry day. Colder and becoming more unsettled is the theme once more.

Thanks to Kay for the photograph.

A cloudy start to the day with a little patchy light rain/drizzle. Gradually becoming more persistent and more moderate during the morning, clearing around lunchtime, with sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud following for the afternoon. Feeling cooler, 11’C. Reasonably clear skies tonight, some cloud at times and a stray shower possible. Down to around 3’C.

The general picture for the weekend sees high pressure to our west, low pressure with the colder air tracking down through the North Sea.

Sunny to start but cloud bubbling up with plenty of showers – some heavy, perhaps with a rumble of thunder, hail or sleet possibly mixed in too. Gusty winds, especially in the showers, around 8’C. Showers will fade by late afternoon. Reasonably clear overnight, still quite windy, a stray shower possible but most likely it will stay dry. Down to around 4’C.

Sunday is a calmer day. Sunny spells, quite a lot of cloud bubbling up – one or two showers dotted around during the lunchtime period, which should be fairly innocuous, and you may miss them all. Around 11’C, maybe 12’C. A chilly night at first, down to around 3’C, but temperatures picking up a bit as cloud thickens, then rain arrives by around dawn, give or take.

Monday sees outbreaks of rain in the morning, light to moderate most likely. This tending to move north during the day, so drier most likely in the afternoon, though also likely still cloudy. A bit of uncertainty on this aspect. Around 9’C.

By Tuesday details become more uncertain, but low pressure will be in charge, close to our west. More likely Tuesday is fairly cloudy with some showers/rain at some point – but details currently unknown, and will be until the models have more of a handle on where exactly low pressure will be, and how it behaves. Temperatures around 10’C.

And this is the general picture for the rest of the week, and I’m afraid, most likely for the Easter weekend. Low pressure will remain in situ somewhere close to our west – most days will see either rain or showers at some point, occasionally quite windy too – but at this stage it’s not possible to put timings on it.

During the week, temperatures broadly within the 9’C to 12’C, though with the low pressure pumping warmth up into Europe, it is plausible that we could tap into that somewhat for Easter weekend – maybe something between 13’C and 17’C during the latter part of Easter weekend…which if it is a showery day rather than a rainy day, could be semi-pleasant.

Of course, the Mediterranean warming up means I’m off on my jollies, but I should still get time to do forecasts as usual next week. I won’t quite be escaping the rain in Sicily, but I’ll take 5 out of 7 days of warm sunshine, which is what it currently looks like.

It will eventually improve here too…tentative signs of slight improvements in temperature and lower rainfall in early April, though this is a new signal, so caution required.

Have a good weekend.…

Tuesday 19th March 2024

It remains changeable – warmer, then colder, then wetter.

Photograph is from me this week, as Facebook isn’t loading messages for some reason.

This morning will be mostly cloudy with a few splashes of fairly light rain, as a weather front slowly sinks south-east, some occasional brightness. Likely still mostly cloudy this afternoon, but some sunny breaks, some brightness – a small chance of a light/moderate shower. Around 14’C, perhaps a little more if sunshine amounts surprise. Mostly cloudy this evening and overnight, some showery rain possible mid/late evening and around midnight – the bulk of it will be further north-west. Mild, around 10’C.

For Wednesday we see high pressure trying to build over the UK, the jetstream well to our north with associated weather systems, and one just dropping down to Spain.

Wednesday morning will be quite cloudy, though it should be thin enough for at least some hazy sunshine at times. Also one or two showers dotted around, and perhaps some patchy light/rain drizzle at times. In the afternoon, some more cloud breaks likely, so at least some sunshine, but plenty of cloud still around and available. Quite warm, 16’C, maybe 17’C. Fairly cloudy overnight though a few clear breaks, down to around 8’C.

Staying on the cloudy side for Thursday, the morning cloudier though some hazy sunshine possible, the afternoon generally sunnier, though some cloud still around. Mild, 14’C, maybe 15’C. Fairly cloudy and increasingly so overnight, as a weather front spreads down from the north-west, down to around 6’C – some rain possible by dawn, timing uncertain.

Friday starts cloudy with outbreaks of rain. Some uncertainty on how quickly it clears – could be anything between 9am and 4pm before it clears, I’d favour somewhere around midday. Also some uncertainty as to whether it will intensify into heavy rain – more likely light/moderate rain, but perhaps something more. Sunny spells, fair-weather cloud and cooler air following – around 11’C. Clear skies overnight and colder than of late, down to around 1’C in a fairly cold wind. A frost possible.

By Saturday, colder air has spread south.

Colder and showery – sunshine and showers will be the theme, some heavy showers, perhaps a rumble of thunder, hail and sleet possibly mixed in too, especially in any notably heavy showers. Around 8’C but a pretty chilly wind. Quite windy with further showers possible overnight, around 3’C.

Sunday sees things moderating, some sunshine, some cloud, still likely some showers around, which could be on the heavy side – but generally fewer than Saturday – perhaps you’ll miss them. Still on the cool side, around 9’C. Chilly overnight – a frost possible.

I think this is where the forecast ends, at least with any form of accuracy on details, though more likely it becomes unsettled once more as the jetstream moves south, likely due to the sudden stratospheric warming event which happened a week or so ago.

More likely than not, next week will be unsettled with further spells of heavy rain, and heavy showers, strong winds possible at times too. Generally on the cool/cold side – an outside chance of some sleet/wet snow mixed in.

Likely this continues into Easter weekend too, but there is a small chance of dragging up some warmth from the Mediterranean instead…or as well as the rain.

April likely starts wet/showery too. It will change…in time.…

Friday 15th March 2024

Mild and mixed.

Thanks to Chickena for the photograph.

Today starts fairly cloudy with a few scattered showers. Drier for a time with some sunny spells, but more showers developing from around late morning onwards, heavy, perhaps very heavy with a rumble of thunder. It will feel semi-pleasant in the occasional sunny spells though, and reaching around 15’C. Quite windy, particularly in the showers. Clear skies overnight and a chilly night, down to around 2’C – a touch of frost in more sheltered areas by dawn.

For Saturday we have a ridge of high pressure trying to push up from the south, and further weather fronts pushing across from the west.

It starts sunny but cloud will thicken somewhat, with a few splashes of mostly light rain in the afternoon – though at time the cloud likely thin enough for some hazy sunshine too. Around 11’C or so. Showery rain spreading across in the evening and overnight, somewhat erratically – perhaps quite persistent rain for a while overnight. No lower than around 10’C.

Early cloud and perhaps still some rain will clear gradually on Sunday, to sunny spells, some cloud and a few scattered showers. 15’C, maybe 16’C – feeling quite warm. Some clear spells, some cloudy spells overnight.

Some uncertainty on cloud amounts on Monday, but broadly some cloudy spells likely, some sunshine at times – a small chance of a shower. Still on the mild/quite warm side, somewhere between 14’C and 16’C.

A weakening weather front crosses either Monday night or Tuesday morning – so depending on timing, Tuesday will turn into sunny spells and a few scattered showers. Again still on the mild/quite warm side – somewhere between 13’C and 17’C.

From there it is pretty uncertain on the direction, let alone day to day details.

Changeable looks more likely than settled, though there looks to at least be failing attempts at building high pressure over the UK.

Likewise it is uncertain whether we stay in the very mild/quite warm air, or we end up with something more westerly-sourced, around the 10’C to 12’C range. Maybe slight favourite the 10’C to 12’C range.

It’s not particularly surprising that after a major sudden stratospheric warming event the models are struggling to see the way ahead in the short-term, let alone medium-term.

Generally speaking, as we go towards the end of March and beginning of April, high pressure is more likely than not to build further north, so depending on where it builds, we’ll more likely either end up with a chilly/cold easterly/northerly, with the low pressure track over Spain/France latitudes, or we’ll end up wet and possibly chilly with the low pressure track over France/southern UK. A variation between the two also possible.

Always frustrating when I cannot give more detail in the short-term, but I’m not really trusting of the model output right now, so 3-4 days tops is as much as I feel I can offer in reasonable accuracy…I’m not even that confident about Monday or Tuesday’s forecast!

Enjoy your weekend…and the snippets of relative warmth!…

Tuesday 12th March 2024

Lots of cloud, but becoming much milder.

Thanks to Lucinda for the cloudy photograph. I actually have quite a few photographs in my Inbox at the moment – let’s hope for some sunshine so I can use the rest!

Today will be cloudy and wet. The rain heavier and more persistent this morning, becoming lighter and patchier this afternoon. Breezy and around 12’C. Still a few patches of light rain this evening, but it will become dry, if remaining cloudy. Down to around 10’C.

The general picture for Wednesday sees low pressure to our north-west, and high pressure once more building over Spain, pumping up warmth – a similar pattern as to what gave us the record-warm (and wet) February.

Cloudy is the theme, perhaps a little patchy light rain at times – though some limited brightness will be possible, especially in the afternoon. Mild, 13’C, maybe 14’C. Breezy too. Mostly cloudy overnight, down to around 8’C.

Thursday again sees plenty of cloud, but there will be some bright/sunny spells too. Later in the afternoon, a weather front will bring some showers – a bit of uncertainty on the timing, more likely late afternoon but perhaps earlier, or perhaps not until evening. Reaching 15’C, perhaps a bit more if the showers can hold off until later…I wouldn’t rule out a 17’C. Ooh! Remaining breezy too. Scattered showers in the evening and overnight, possibly on the heavy side, no lower than around 10’C.

Friday sees plenty more cloud, a bit of sunshine at times, and quite a few showers – likely heavy, perhaps very heavy with a rumble of thunder. Breezy and mild, 14’C, maybe 15’C. Clear skies and a chilly night likely, down to around 3’C – perhaps a touch of frost by dawn.

Details a bit uncertain for the weekend, high pressure trying to poke its nose in from the south, but weather fronts continue to march across too.

Broadly speaking, the more likely outcome for Saturday sees bright and dry weather in the morning, with cloud thickening and some rain later. Perhaps we can squeeze out something a bit more spring-like, but also perhaps we don’t get the bright and dry morning. The theme is there, but the timing is in question as it stands. In the range of 12’C to 15’C.

Sunday is again somewhat uncertain, but more likely we’ll be between weather systems, so broadly, some sunshine, some cloud and temperatures around 15’C, give or take. Not bad really, though I stress not especially high confidence.

Next week likely starts on the mild/quite warm side, though positioning of weather fronts uncertain – and hence uncertain as to cloud amounts/rain timing, etc. Temperatures more likely to head back down to normal, or even on the chilly side as the week goes on, and generally remaining changeable.

In the latter part of the month, both colder than average, and warmer than average conditions are more likely than normal. The former due to the sudden stratospheric warming event, the latter due to the strength (again) of the Spanish high pressure. Don’t be surprised to see a flip from one to the other.

April is still looking mixed, some colder spells still possible at the beginning, some warmer spells at the end.

Signals for May have trended to warmer and drier than normal, signals for June also remain this way. There should be some very nice weather ahead!

Interestingly I saw a paper published that seemed to argue that a late season sudden stratospheric warming event (which we’ve had) means a warmer and drier summer is more likely – which is something I’ve believed for a few years, and now maybe there is scientific evidence.

I haven’t read the paper (a bit too heavy going for me), so I may be paraphrasing incorrectly, hopefully I got the gist. Next forecast should be Friday morning.…

Friday 8th March 2024

Fairly mixed weather. Not a washout – but no early spring warmth either.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

Today looks sunny, once any early mist/fog patches clear. Some high cloud at times, especially this afternoon. 10’C, maybe 11’C but the south-easterly wind will make it feel cool. Cloud thickening overnight as a weather front pushes up from the south – the odd splash of rain in the latter half, down to around 5’C.

The general picture for Saturday sees low pressure heading into France/Spain, and nudging into southern UK.

Generally fairly cloudy, one or two showers dotted around but also some bright/sunny spells too. Reaching around 11’C, maybe 12’C and quite windy. A band of showery rain spreads up around early evening, perhaps by late afternoon, and then further showery rain at times overnight – more so later in the night. Down to around 7’C.

Sunday looks wet, with rain at least at times during the day, though quite likely it become persistent and on the heavy side. Some uncertainty on timings with the rain – will be quite tricky to forecast specific details until 12 hours before on this one. Breezy and around 9’C. Further showery rain possible overnight – but uncertain. Generally cloudy – a small chance of mist/fog forming. Down to around 4’C.

Monday looks cloudy, perhaps some light rain/drizzle at times. Some sunny spells possible – if the sun comes out in the afternoon, a shower could develop too. Around 9’C, give or take. Fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 4’C, give or take.

Tuesday also looks on the cloudy side, temperatures around 10’C – some bright/sunny spells possible but the emphases on cloud.

The more likely outcome for Wednesday/Thursday next week sees low pressure systems trying to push in from the west – bringing cloud, wind and some bits of rain, but probably nothing too much. Milder too, around 12’C.

That said, confidence isn’t especially high – models are swinging around with different solutions at fairly short timeframes.

This might be due to the fact that we’ve had another sudden stratospheric warming event – a 3rd of the winter, which according to the Met Office is a 1 in 250 year chance.

The last two SSW events didn’t lead to colder weather, like the often do. This one has more potential to bring northerly/easterly flows – it normally takes 2-4 weeks for this influence to drip down to the troposphere (our part of the atmosphere), so this may account for greater model variability in the short-term.

Hemispherically-speaking, high pressure systems are more likely further north, low pressure further south – and that will be the theme for late March and into April, though low pressure systems are already further south (ie France/Spain).

It will be an interesting few weeks, and of course, by time we get to mid-April, easterly winds don’t necessarily mean cold…as the continent is warming up notably by then.

Enjoy your weekend…time to work.…

Tuesday 5th March 2024

Less rain. But still some more rain.

Thanks to Eve for the photograph.

Tuesday sees a weakening low pressure slide across the south of England, bringing cloud and showers at times – showers could merge into longer spells of rain but this will be fairly localised, also they could be heavy at times – but some uncertainty on which exact areas of southern England will get more rain and when. Some brightness possible later in the day at times. Reaching around 9’C in fairly light winds. Fairly cloudy overnight – the rain should stay to our east though it will likely head our way so I cannot be sure it stays dry, but more likely. Some clear spells possible – especially the further west you are. Down to around 2’C, a chance of frost the further west you are – and possibly some mist/fog by dawn. What a complex little day!

Wednesday sees high pressure continue to build over Scandinavia, and start to influence our weather.

Wednesday morning starts with a mixture of mist/fog/cloud patches – a small chance of some drizzle, perhaps a few spots with some sunshine. Generally it will brighten up with some sunny spells, and some showers breaking out also. Reaching around 10’C. Quite a bit of cloud overnight, a chance of a shower, some clear spells also – down to around 3’C.

Quite a bit of cloud to start Thursday, one or two scattered showers – say around a 50% chance of catching one. Generally increasing amounts of sunshine in the afternoon, and reaching around 11’C, maybe 12’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, becoming breezy, down to around 4’C.

Friday looks rather pleasant. Sunny, a bit of fair-weather cloud, and increasing amounts of high cloud as the day goes on, but otherwise…quite nice. A south-easterly breeze still making it feel a tad cool, but reaching somewhere between 10’C and 12’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, some showery rain pushing up from the south by around dawn – some uncertainty though. Down to around 5’C and still breezy.

For Saturday we see high pressure well to our north, low pressure being pushed south over France/Spain, and nudging into southern England.

It’s possible that the rain stays to our south, but more likely we stay cloudy with outbreaks of rain from time to time – not always raining though. Say an 80% chance of this, 20 % chance we stay dry. Likely on the mild side, around 10’C, give or take and quite windy too. Further rain possible overnight, though uncertain on where it will track at this stage.

Sunday looks cloudy and breezy with an easterly flow, though not especially cold – around 9’C or so. Some showery rain possible – details uncertain at this stage.

Next week likely stays with this easterly flow – more likely cloudy, perhaps some light rain/drizzle, and on the cool side. High pressure probably remains in control for at least a couple more days next week.…

Spring Weather Forecast 2024

Spring has started, but its still pretty cold. Welcome to my weather forecast for Spring 2024.

First off, the usual caveat. Seasonal forecasting is difficult, if not impossible. It is mostly about studying background signals, previous year’s weather patterns, pattern matching and expectations of future background signals.

Events scupper this, as does a lack of understanding as to how conflicting background signals may work against each other. It’s pretty much best guesses.

This February was a great example. My forecast was for a colder and drier month than normal, based on background signals overwhelmingly pointing to this outcome being more likely, and also the chance of a sudden stratospheric warming being high, in my view.

Except we had the wettest and warmest February on record. What happened? Well, I assume events – it is often difficult to correlate what signal/event caused weather conditions, though I suspect the sudden stratospheric warming event counted against this time – whilst many lead to cold weather, some actually lead to milder conditions, and this SSW event was unusual in that it reflected back into the stratosphere and powered the stratospheric vortex, and hence we went into wet and mild overdrive. At least, I think that is the cause.

All of which is to say that some of this will be wrong, perhaps very wrong. But hopefully enough will be reasonably inline to make it valuable.

For December and January, my winter forecast behaved reasonably well – had February gone to expectations then I would have been very happy! Also I think I outlined future conditions in my twice-weekly forecasts with good levels of accuracy, quite often the pattern for 1-2 weeks ahead was clearer than normal. And I did drop the idea for a cold/dry February (or at least it turning so) earlier than the professionals did. So I’m content with my ongoing forecasts, if not the seasonal.

I am considering stopping doing these seasonal outlooks, because I question the value, especially when they go so off-course like February does. Feedback welcome – I’m not just looking for positive platitudes!

Finally thanks to Sarah for the photograph – a small donation has been made to The Brooke, as a thank you.

Background Signals

There’s always less influence from background signals in spring.

However, there is likely to be a third sudden stratospheric warming event in early March, or strong and early final warming of the stratospheric vortex – whatever it is classed as, this will increase the chance of easterly and/or northerly winds later in March, and into April – and also push the jetstream south.

It’s slightly annoying that I’m doing the forecast now, as in another week or so, after this stratospheric warming event, things will be clearer. So there’s more uncertainty in this forecast than normal.

El Niño should also increase the chance of cold and dry conditions, at least in March, though that was the case for February too and look what happened.

Easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation should reduce the strength of westerly winds, and increase the chances of easterly flows.

Sea surface temperatures are likely to remain at record highs in the Atlantic, and my reading of this is that there will be more moisture in south-westerly flows, but also much more warmth potential to tap into – depending on if/when high pressure builds over Spain.


The sudden stratospheric warming event probably puts hopes for an early spring to bed, but not necessarily.

Most likely, March starts on the cold side, veers mildish then colder, showery days tending to drier days. Through the mid-month period easterly (ish) winds seem likely at times, which should make it colder at times, but also rain and milder weather will be pushing up from the south-west too. Where they meet, snow is possible – but chances do reduce of battleground snow in March, especially down here. A small chance of snow – nothing more.

Later in March, easterly or northerly winds are more likely, so conditions generally on the chilly side with overnight frost probable at times. Otherwise some sunshine, some light/moderate showers, perhaps wintry and some outright cloudy/chilly days. Occasionally, milder and wetter conditions will push up from the south-west.

Quite a mix really – and it will depend on where exactly high pressure sets up to our north (assuming it does) – so an outright wet month is plausible instead, but also a dry and cold month is too. My forecast is for a mixture of the two, with quite a bit of fluctuation.

Overall I expect temperatures to be slightly below-average, rainfall around average and sunshine slightly below-average.

Confidence level around 40% – lower than normal, due to the expected sudden stratospheric warming event in early March.


Assuming the stratospheric warming event happens, and the outcome is blocking highs to our north, then I expect April to start fairly chilly with showers or rain at times, with northerly or north-easterly winds being more likely than normal. Overnight frosts still very possible.

There is a weak signal for high pressure to build over Spain in the second half of April, perhaps slightly earlier, so I’m going with that, and suggesting that will increase the chance of warmth (finally!) in the second half of April. Unlikely to be an extended warm spell – likely mixed with some weather fronts bringing rain on a few days, some heavy showers on other days – but some warmer, sunny-ish days too.

Overall I expect temperatures to be around average – though a contrast between below-average to start the month, above-average to end, rainfall slightly above-average and sunshine around average.

Confidence level around 40% again.


Background signals really drop off here, and long-range models are conflicting with each other, so in a forecast with lower confidence than normal, I’m even lower on confidence for May.

My best suggestion is for the warmer than normal end of April to continue into the beginning of May, with some very pleasant days – though also a few interruptions – some showers, some occasional weak weather fronts bringing more cloud and rain, with fresher air following.

The latter part of May perhaps looks more unsettled for a time (possibly warm/humid still), though with a trend to much warmer and drier conditions by the end of the month.

Confidence level of 20% – unusually low.

Early summer thoughts and summary

So a mixed spring looks more likely, and not an especially joy-filled spring – with some colder and wetter conditions early. Though with the proviso that uncertainty is much higher than normal.

Early signals for summer do point to a drier and hotter summer being more likely than normal, particularly June.…

Friday 1st March 2024

Spring is here but autumn continues – can confirm that it was a gloriously wet and wild walk this morning.

More showers to come.

Thanks to Marina for the photograph.

Heavy rain on Friday morning will give way to sunny spells and scattered heavy showers – you may miss all the showers, but more likely you catch a few. Showers heavy/very heavy, perhaps with hail/thunder or even sleet/wet snow. Windy, especially in the showers, 8’C but feeling colder than that. Some showers in the evening/overnight – with a trend towards general heavy showery rain in the latter part of the night – a small chance of some sleet/wet snow mixed in. Down to around 3’C.

Low pressure remains in charge for the weekend – centred over the south of England.

Generally showery with some occasional sunshine, showers potentially heavy with a small chance of sleet/wet snow mixed into the heaviest. Less showers later in the day. I think some uncertainty over exact details – so don’t be too surprised if few showers – or the opposite, more general rain. Around 6’C – breezy and chilly. Mostly clear skies overnight, frosty for all – down to around -2’C, mist/fog patches in some places.

Sunday should be fairer. Early mist/fog patches lift into sunny spells and fair weather cloud. Small chance of light showers, but more likely you’ll stay dry. Around 8’C or so. Clear skies with a frost likely overnight, down to around -2’C, mist/fog patches forming in places too.

There is one model showing a spell of rain/sleet/snow instead on Sunday – it seems so far out of range of likely outcomes that I should dismiss it – all other models keep this area in the North Sea, way to our east. Worth keeping an eye on anyway.

Monday sees early mist/fog patches clear to sunny spells, becoming increasingly hazy as the afternoon goes on. Perhaps a light shower, but otherwise dry until rain in the evening. Around 10’C and becoming breezy. Rain spreading across in the evening and first part of the night, clear spells follow, down to around 4’C.

Not especially high confidence on the details, but broadly Tuesday looks a reasonable day, with sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud and some scattered showers. Temperatures around 10’C. Frost/fog possible overnight.

By Wednesday we see high pressure over Scandinavia continuing to develop, and spread its influence our way.

Likely on the mild side for Wednesday, in a more southerly-ish flow, up to around 12’C. More likely dry, perhaps with some sunshine, though confidence in details not especially high. Frost/fog possible overnight.

Where we go from there for late next week and into next weekend is broadly outlined, but details are still to be determined, and will depend on the shape and location of the Scandinavian high pressure.

We could end up with a more south-easterly flow, probably on the milder side, say 10’C to 12’C, though with a trend away from drier sunnier conditions to cloudier and wetter conditions as low pressure systems try to spread up from the south-west.

Or we end up more easterly, a colder flow, temperatures between 4’C and 7’C, with cold winds and perhaps wintry showers.

The milder south-easterly outcome seems more likely for late next week and into next weekend, though perhaps colder easterly is more likely after that.

I shall try to write the spring forecast this weekend. Keep your expectations low.…