Monday 29th January 2024

Mostly dry and often mild – a useable spell of weather.

Thanks to Mary for the photograph.

Tonight will be cloudy, perhaps the odd spot of light rain, around 8’C.

Tuesday will be mostly cloudy. Perhaps a little light rain/drizzle at first – there may be some sunny spells to end the day also, though uncertainty on the time that the area of cloud clears. Around 9’C with a breeze. Fairly clear skies overnight, though some cloud possible. Generally down to around -1’C, so a frost probable – though that will depend on cloud amounts.

The general picture for Wednesday remains dominated by this large area of high pressure covering most of central and southern Europe – and has led to record January temperatures in parts of Spain and Scotland, possibly other places that have escaped my attention.

Bright with hazy sunshine for Wednesday morning – thicker cloud spreading across in the afternoon. Around 9’C, maybe 10’C and quite windy. Cloudy overnight with some patchy rain from roughly late evening onwards – clearing before dawn with some cooler air, down to around 3’C.

Thursday will be a pleasant day with hazy sunshine – reaching around 8’C. Some cloud overnight – likely fairly chilly, say down to around 4’C – give or take.

Milder air makes its way to our shores on Friday, though with a lot of cloud. Some sunny breaks at times, especially at first but otherwise mostly cloudy. Becoming quite windy, but reaching 13’C or so. Fairly cloudy overnight, around 9’C.

Saturday stays cloudy but mild. The odd bit of sunshine at times, the odd showery bit of rain also possible – but generally think cloud. 13’C. Mostly cloudy and around 9’C overnight, give or take – the odd splash of rain possible.

Sunday generally looks more of the same, often cloudy, perhaps some sunshine at times and staying mild, around 13’C. Possibly windy again.

Next week is uncertain – it looks like there will be an attempt to spread somewhat colder air south, though it may well just mean we return to rain – and Scotland gets the cold.

Longer-term, I still think the more likely option is for high pressure to develop either over the UK or to the west (more likely) – which means colder weather is more likely for the second half of February.…

Friday 26th January 2024

Mostly mild and mostly dry. Pretty boring.

No photograph this week. Also boring.

Today will be mostly sunny. Cooler air in place though this is temporary – around 8’C. Breezy though becoming lighter as the day goes on. Mostly clear skies overnight, though some high cloud later. Some places getting a frost, especially more sheltered spots – down to around 0’C, give or take.

The general picture for Saturday sees the Iberian high pressure stretching towards the UK – with the air being sourced from Africa.

Mostly we’ll see hazy sunshine all day – the layer of fairly thin cloud will vary in thickness, otherwise a useable day. 8’C – the milder air yet to arrive, and a bit of a breeze. Fairly cloudy overnight, but thin enough for a chilly night – down to around 3’C.

Sunday again sees hazy sunshine all day. 10’C and a bit of a breeze. Fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 7’C.

Monday again remains with mostly hazy sunshine, though some low cloud at times too – more likely in the afternoon. Mild, though some uncertainty on temperatures – between 11’C and 14’C, though the upper part of the range looks more likely. A weak weather front crosses overnight, bringing mostly cloud but perhaps a little patchy rain – around 7’C.

Tuesday sees a transition from cloudier, milder conditions – perhaps with a little patchy rain, into sunnier but fresher conditions – timing uncertain though. Temperatures around 12’C when cloudy, 8’C when the sunnier skies arrive. A chilly night likely – frost possible though not especially likely.

Wednesday looks fairly cloudy but with some hazy sunshine. Both temperatures and wind speeds ticking up, reaching around 10’C and probably becoming windy. Likely cloudy overnight.

Thursday and Friday both look more likely to be cloudy but mild – somewhere between 12’C and 14’C, windy too.

Next weekend more likely remains very similar – still dominated by a really strong high pressure system over Iberia and western Europe in general – so plenty of mildness. Uncertain on cloud/sunshine amounts at this stage – though cloud would seem more likely. Were it a couple of months later, it would be a really lovely set-up for those of us who love spring warmth. Alas, it’s still deep winter.

Where do we go from here? Well, I suspect a more UK-based high pressure system, or close to our west is still the more likely outcome from around mid-February – getting there may need to see a short unsettled spell after next weekend (perhaps starting next Sunday at the earliest). Such a UK-based high pressure system will mean more seasonal temperatures, more overnight frost/fog but also more sunshine potential. If it does then migrate west, then something colder will be plausible.

Interestingly it seems that the unusual technical sudden-stratospheric warming event we had, has strengthened the polar vortex as opposed to breaking it up – it was already quite broken up, we didn’t actually need an SSW at that point to bring us cold. It seems that this SSW event has actually stopped our cold spell – whereas they quite often bring about notable cold spells, ie the 2018 Beast From The East.

Still a lot to learn from the science of how SSW events – they only happen on average once every other winter, so there isn’t huge amounts of data about their impacts. Every event is a learning event for those interested.

That said, quite a lot of the stratospheric science is over my head – learning about it doesn’t pay the bills, and wow they are rather whopping when you own your own flat, as I am finding out!

Enjoy the mildness.…

Tuesday 23rd January 2024

High pressure to the south having more influence than low pressure to the north…though generally fairly variable ahead.

Thanks to Chickena for the photograph.

This morning will be cloudy with outbreaks of rain – mostly light to moderate in intensity. From midday onwards, give or take, it will be mostly patchy light rain/drizzle. Windy but mild, 12’C. Some patchy light rain/drizzle for the first part of the night, but that will fade and cloud will thin. Around 8’C. Remaining windy.

Wednesday will be bright with hazy sunshine at times, especially in the morning – the afternoon tending to have a somewhat thicker layer of cloud, though still bright. Reaching around 10’C – still fairly windy in the morning but it will subside to more of a breeze. Cloud thickening overnight from the south-west as a weak weather front crosses, bringing some patchy light rain in the second half of the night. No lower than around 7’C.

By Thursday we see the Spanish high pressure system nudging up into the UK. Low pressure remains well to our north with an active jetstream.

Thursday will be mostly cloudy with occasional bits of patchy light rain – perhaps a more notable shower in the afternoon, as the winds become fairly strong once more. Mild, 12’C. Cloudy, windy with some showery rain overnight – clear skies follow for around dawn, with cooler air – down to somewhere between 3’C and 7’C, depending on the timing of when this cooler air arrives.

Friday will be sunny but cooler, around 8’C. A bit of cloud in the afternoon. Fairly clear skies overnight, probably a frost – down to around 0’C, but it will depend on much high/mid-level cloud there is.

Saturday looks breezy but dry – some uncertainty on cloud amounts/thickness – more likely along the lines of hazy sunshine, though a cloudier or sunnier day is plausible. Around 8’C. A chilly night likely – cloud probably too thicken for a frost, but not impossible.

Sunday most likely is cloudy but dry – a weather front with rain will be edging our way, but likely not for Sunday daytime. Mild, perhaps very mild, around 12’C or so – some unusually warm upper air being sourced from Africa. That weather front probably crosses overnight, bringing some bits of showery rain.

Next week looks like it will be dominated by the Spanish high pressure system, pulling up some very mild air – perhaps something cooler at times depending on how the high pressure system moves around, but mild or very mild is more likely.

Also mostly dry, though also windy at times. Assuming we tap into the Spanish warmth, which is the more likely outcome, then temperatures between 12’C and 15’C most of the time – it’s too far away to be sure on cloud/sunshine amounts, but if it’s sunny then it will feel almost spring-like. Quite remarkable for late January/early February if this comes off. If this was a month later, with a little strength in the sunshine, then we’d be talking 20’C. If it were summer, we’d be talking 35’C+.

A lower likelihood instead for next week, is for high pressure to be over the UK, or close to, but unable tap into the Spanish warmth – and hence we’d be around 7’C during the day, with overnight frosts likely.

High pressure is more likely to migrate to either over the UK or to the west of the UK after next week, so something cooler with overnight frosts – and perhaps notably colder in time, say by mid-February.…

Thursday 18th January 2024

Brrrr then blowy.

Thanks to Chickena for the photograph.

Clear skies tonight mean another cold and frosty night, Widely down to around -5’C, sheltered spots a little lower.

Friday starts frosty. Otherwise long spells of sunshine all day, a bit more high cloud later on. The flow turning more westerly and temperatures a notch higher, at 4’C. Clear skies at first overnight will allow for another frost, down to around -2’C, though cloud will slowly thicken as the night goes on.

Saturday will be bright with hazy sunshine, as weather fronts struggle to push east. It will become quite windy though, reaching 5’C or so. Chilly to start the night, cloud will push east with some outbreaks of rain overnight – perhaps a little sleety at first, but it will turn to rain and become milder. Down to around 1’C – but around 8’C by dawn. The wind fairly strong too.

So by Sunday we are in a run of strong south-westerly winds – a mild direction, and likely caused by the strong plunge of Arctic air into America a week ago. Though perhaps also influenced by the sudden stratospheric warming event of this week – which was a bit of an unusual affair, and only technical in nature – with a very quick recovery of the polar vortex in the stratosphere. Quite what impact that will have down the line, I’m not sure – but it certainly wasn’t a classic SSW event.

So Sunday, some bright spells in the morning, but also a few splashes of rain around – minimal amounts. The afternoon mostly cloudy, the odd spot of rain possible, and windy – but mild, at 11’C. In the evening, a band of rain will cross but also the winds really pick up, gale force, gusts of 50-60mph look likely – so do except some disruption mid-evening onwards, and some isolated damage – fence panels, tree branches, etc.

There’s still a chance that the severity of this could upgrade – so keep an eye on the Met Office weather warnings if you have plans for Sunday evening/overnight.

Monday will be windy – do except the possibility of disruption in the morning, though the strongest winds should have cleared by dawn. Otherwise sunny spells, a bit of cloud, a stray shower is plausible but most likely dry. 9’C or so. Clear skies at first overnight, though becoming windier and cloudier later. Down to around 3’C, give or take.

Tuesday sees the next weather system arrive, heading to Scotland but packing some strong winds in once more. There will be rain at some point – though uncertain on the timing and extent at this stage. Mild, likely somewhere between 10’C and 12’C, though I wouldn’t rule out a 14’C.

After that it should dry out once more, with high pressure building from the south-west.

However, low pressure will be close to our north, so it will often be cloudy and windy. Generally mild.

Weather fronts will occasionally pass through – Thursday night or Friday for the next one, with some rain, though fairly small amounts.

For next weekend, high pressure should be over the UK, though likely the Atlantic will put up a stiff battle and try to push weather fronts across – at the moment, it looks more likely that high pressure will win, and it will stay dry. Sunshine/cloud amounts unknown at this stage. Average temperatures more likely, overnight frost/fog possible.

I still think February is more likely much drier than normal, and cold weather should feature at times. Perhaps early on more likely is a UK-based high pressure, with chilly days and frosty nights – winds from the east or north are very possible at times in February, which could bring wintry showers.

Early hints for March also suggest easterly winds are more likely than normal, though I’m fairly low confidence on this right now – I’d like to see what, if any impact the SSW has. As I said earlier, it wasn’t a clean cut SSW – technically it happened but whether it will have much impact I’m unsure. All the signs for cold spells in February are there, without an SSW – an SSW just kind of confuses things for me.

Oh well. Have a good weekend.…

Monday 15th January 2024

A cold week ahead – but milder, and wilder weather returns for the weekend.

Thanks to Jonathan for the photograph.

Tonight sees clear skies at first, though cloud will thicken somewhat in the second part of the night. Frosty, down to around -3’C.

The general picture for Tuesday sees cold air having spread down from the north, with low pressure to the south-west trying to push towards us.

It will be mostly sunny, or hazy sunshine – hazy particularly earlier and later in the day. 3’C though feeling colder. Fairly cloudy overnight, though the cloud often thin enough for a frost to form – down to around -2’C.

Wednesday starts cloudy but bright, with some hazy sunshine – the low pressure doesn’t quite make it to England, hence no snow event. Generally we’ll be looking at hazy sunshine all day, and cold, 2’C. Skies clear overnight and we’ll see a sharp frost, down to around -5’C, perhaps lower, especially in more sheltered spots. A breeze adding to the wind chill.

Thursday sees the northerly re-establish itself. Long spells of sunshine, though cold – and the northerly breeze making it feel quite biting. Around 2’C. Mostly clear and frosty overnight, down to around -4’C.

Friday sees long spells of sunshine, though cloud thickening somewhat in the afternoon as weather fronts approach. Around 3’C. A frost probable at first, though cloud will thicken as the night goes on, the wind strengthens and temperatures will pick up a bit.

Saturday looks cloudy and windy – strong winds, with temperatures recovering to around 6’C. Some uncertainty on rainfall – more likely it arrives in the evening and is fairly patchy, but scope for it to be earlier in the day. Windy overnight – likely a bit of rain at some point.

Details still need firming up for Sunday, but it looks windy, perhaps with gales – and a spell of rain at some point. Mild, around 11’C.

There is a chance of something a stormier for Sunday – sufficient for damage/disruption, but too early to firm up on how strong the winds will be. Most likely strong winds or gales but a chance of severe gales. One to watch for if you have plans for Sunday…perhaps overnight or Monday instead.

Further outbreaks of rain and strong winds likely for the start of next week too – probably very mild, we might squeeze a 15’C.

More likely high pressure builds again from around midweek next week, to settle things down once more. Probably mild at first, but an increasing chance of overnight frost by next weekend.…

Thursday 11th January 2024

The gentle Arctic plunge is on for the weekend – but it isn’t the only game in town as low pressure will be trying to move up from the south-west shortly after too.

Could it snow next week? It could, but also it might not. Yes, I will later be giving you another breakdown of possible outcomes for next week…if you prefer being told EXACT SECOND A 6FT BARRAGE OF SNOW HELL DESTROYS BRITIN, then you know where to go for that.

Forecasting is about probabilities, whether that be elections, football scores or the weather.

This forecast is just one person’s opinion based on current (messy) model data and experience of analysing weather models for the past 20 years. I am not always right. I hope you enjoy reading, I mostly enjoy writing (depending on my accuracy) and I never ask for anything. Well, I might need a new job soon (not yet) so maybe I’ll ask if you know any companies looking for a senior software engineer. But apart from that, I hope you enjoy, but please remember I am just one amateur forecaster – there are other sources of forecasting.

And apologies for the opening rant…bad day at the office, wary that this forecast is soon going to get uncertain, and I know everyone wants to know if it will snow or not next week. I don’t know. But it could.

Thanks to Becky for the photograph.

Tonight will be cloudy and down to around 3’C. Frost unlikely except perhaps in the most sheltered spots.

The general picture for Friday sees our high pressure system still over the UK, now centred over Ireland and slipping west.

Friday will be mostly cloudy. A few glimmers of brightness at times, more so in the afternoon. Around 6’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, though a few clear spells towards dawn and temperatures down to around 1’C – a chance of a frost.

Still quite a lot of cloud around on Saturday, though some sunny spells at times. Still on the cold side with the flow turning around to the north, though the breeze still light at this stage. Around 5’C. Some clear spells overnight, though plenty of cloud still. Down to around 1’C, give or take – a frost possible especially in more sheltered spots.

Sunday still has a fair bit of cloud, but there will be more in the way of sunny spells than recent days. An afternoon shower possible, it should be of rain. Around 5’C with the northerly breeze starting to pick up. Clear skies overnight and down to around -3’C as the cold air digs further south.

By Monday, the Arctic plunge is…well…plunging, but also low pressure to our south-west is gathering some energy and trying to push our way. Where wet and mild meet cold – snow could happen depending on the dynamics, but that’s still a day or two away at this stage.

Monday itself will just be cold and sunny – temperatures struggling to 2’C at best, with a notable wind chill from the northerly breeze. Most likely clear skies overnight with a fairly sharp frost, down to around -4’C, perhaps lower – though there is a small chance of a little feature developing with something cloudier and slightly less cold spreading down from the north-west – perhaps even with a light dusting of snow.

Tuesday is where things get messy. First there is the possible overnight feature – which looks like it will be much further north, but this is a long way from being modelled well. Then there is our approaching low from the south-west. More likely Tuesday is sunny and cold, around 3’C – but that feature and the approaching low mean I’m not especially confident.

Overnight is the first time that this low to our south-west could arrive, bringing snow or a snow-to-rain event (perhaps just rain but not likely mild enough before it arrives)

However, the low pressure could easily stay to our south – and it just stays cold.

Wednesday depends on the track that the low pressure system takes. So it could be cold and dry, it could be heavy snow, it could be snow turning to rain (or it snowed overnight and then turns to rain).

For the rest of next week, attempts to bring milder conditions from the west will continue – and the balance of probability in terms of what falls from the sky will gradually become more likely rain than snow, especially by next weekend.

The following week (w/c 22nd January) is more likely unsettled and mild, but cold weather should return either for the end of January or beginning of February.

A substantial and lengthy cold spell is plausible. Rarely have I seen so many background signals pointing to colder than normal weather, for this time of year.

Just to summarise the possible snow event – around a 25% chance of a spell of heavy snow, either Tuesday night or during Wednesday. It’s unlikely the models will get a good handle on the track for another few days – maybe we will have confidence by Sunday.

Enjoy your weekend…apologies again for being a bit ranty.…

Monday 8th January 2024

A cold and dry week ahead.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

Still some snow showers around in the early part of this evening, but these will swiftly clear west to leave a cold and fairly cloudy night – but likely enough clear spells for a frost and some ice. Down to around -1’C.

So the general picture for Tuesday, and all week is high pressure centred over Scotland with a cold easterly wind.

Some cloud at first but this will break up to leave long spells of sunshine. Cold, with a cold wind, 3’C at best. Clear skies overnight, down to around -2’C, give or take, frosty.

Wednesday also sees long spells of sunshine. A bit of cloud but mostly sunny. Temperatures up to 4’C, but still a cold breeze. Mostly clear skies overnight though a bit more cloud later. Frosty, down to around -2’C.

The breeze turns more north-easterly on Thursday which will spread cloud down. Perhaps sunny to start, but once the cloud arrives – it will just be cloudy. A bit less cold, 5’C, maybe 6’C. Remaining cloudy overnight, around 4’C.

Friday remains mostly cloudy, though maybe a little occasional sunshine. Around 6’C. Likely mostly cloudy overnight, though a few clear spells. Roughly around 1’C – though a chance of a frost if cloud clears sufficiently.

A bit more uncertainty over cloud amounts for Saturday but more likely on the cloudier side of the scale, though with some sunny spells. Perhaps some patchy light rain or drizzle also. Around 5’C or so.

By Sunday, our high pressure moves west/north-west.

This allows two things to happen – colder Arctic air to try to push down from the north, but also low pressure systems to push up from the south-west.

For Sunday itself, conditions will remain broadly unchanged – some cloud, some sunshine and around 6’C – a small chance of some patchy light/moderate rain.

After that is where things become more interesting and much more uncertain.

Broadly speaking there are 3 different possible outcomes for next week, but we could get a combination of them over the course of next week, as opposed to just one clear outcome.

Outcome 1 sees Arctic air sweep south – cold, likely sunny by day, sharp overnight frosts – snow showers possible.

Outcome 2 sees low pressure push up from the south-west, bringing somewhat milder weather, but also rain – probably preceded by a spell of snow.

Outcome 3 sees both the Arctic air push south but also low pressure move north, and we meet in a battle ground scenario with heavy snow.

I’d currently favour either outcome 1, or a mixture of outcomes 1 and 3 – however, a mixture of outcome 1 and outcome 2 isn’t much further behind in terms of likelihood.

The week after next, is arguably more likely back to mild with at least some rain – though cold and wintry weather could very easily return towards the end of January and into February, at least at times.…

Monday 8th January 2024 – Snow Showers

There will be a few showers pushing across from the east this afternoon and evening, which should fall as snow – perhaps sleet, it is fairly marginal but snow is more likely.

Showers, so hit and miss, and mostly light/moderate – maybe you’ll get a slight covering but more likely only on grass, etc as opposed to pavements/roads. But should you catch a heavier one, especially in the evening when temperatures drop to freezing, then maybe you’ll find a more widespread slight covering, with icy surfaces.

Full update tonight. – though dry and cold will be the theme.…

Friday 5th January 2024

The rain is over for a while, time to look east and then maybe north, as colder and drier weather develops.

Thanks to Marion for the photograph.

Friday looks rather cloudy due to the overhang from the day before’s rain. There will be a bit of brightness at times, and also the odd shower – both more likely in the afternoon. Around 7’C. Fairly cloudy overnight with a little showery rain possible, down to around 3’C.

The general picture for Saturday sees high pressure starting to build around the UK, and an easterly starting to form.

Saturday again looks fairly cloudy, though there will be some bright/sunny spells at times – and a bit of occasional light rain. Feeling colder, around 5’C, maybe 6’C. A mixture of cloudy spells and clear spells overnight – a frost in places, down to around 0’C with enough clear spells. An outside chance of fog forming.

Sunday should see more in the way of sunny spells, but it will be cloudy at times – perhaps a spot of light rain but more likely it stays dry. Feeling fairly cold in the easterly breeze, 4’C. Uncertainty on cloud amounts overnight – a frost possible with enough clear spells, and temperatures somewhere between -2’C and 2’C.

Monday sees a mixture of sunny spells and cloudy spells, with the chilly easterly breeze continuing. Around 4’C. Probably enough clear spells overnight for a frost, down to around -2’C, give or take.

Tuesday looks much sunnier, though it will still be cold in the easterly wind, around 3’C. Uncertainty on cloud amounts once more overnight, a frost possible with enough clear spells – temperatures broadly somewhere between -3’C and 1’C.

Wednesday has a greater chance of cloud, though it will depend on exact positioning of the high pressure system and exact wind direction. Suggestions of it being slightly less cold, at around 5’C but still feeling cold in the easterly wind.

No real change for Thursday and Friday.

High pressure remains to our north, we stay in an easterly – but questions will remain over cloud amounts.

If cloudy, then overnight frosts unlikely. If not cloudy, then sunny spells by day but also overnight frosts. Generally on the cold side, though nothing spectacularly so.

Then what happens?

I’m not sure that I’ve ever seen so many signals, both shorter and longer term, all suggesting cold is more likely, than I do right now. Long-term we have an easterly QBO which means westerly winds are less likely in winter, plus El Niño winters tend to be drier and colder in the latter half.

We have a displaced polar vortex, we have a weakened stratospheric vortex thanks to an earlier Canadian warming event, and the current stratospheric warming event (which isn’t quite a major SSW but should impact anyway), we could still have a full-on SSW soon, the MJO cycle is in favour of a cold high pressure over the UK, and other factors I don’t especially understand such as angular momentum are apparently in favour, though I have to rely on the word of others for that. Plus the Met Office is signed up to cold.

Of course, our prevailing weather in the UK in winter is mild and Atlantic-driven.

Anyway, next weekend the more likely outcome sees our high pressure move west, perhaps north-west to Greenland.

This then allows two things – one an Arctic flow to set up from the north. But it could also allow low pressure systems to the south to get further north towards the UK.

I think, more likely the cold Arctic flow is the winning outcome – often sunny, snow showers possible though would generally need some kind of feature to develop, sharp overnight frosts.

However there is a scenario where the two meet – which on the northern edge would lead to heavy snow. It’s not likely but something to watch. Of course, the heavy snow could be further north, and we’d be in the milder air with heavy rain.

Where we go from there is uncertain, we need to sort out next weekend’s weather first – but I’d be surprised if this was our only cold spell. The cold spell could go on some time, with a chance of it being a very significant spell of cold weather – even if there may be a short break.

Interesting times ahead. Enjoy your weekend.…

Tuesday 2nd January 2024

Brand new year, same old rain. With gales for this afternoon too.

But colder weather is around the corner.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

So the general picture sees a large low pressure trough over and to the west of the UK, with various smaller systems circulating around it. Also of note is a strong build of high pressure over Scandinavia – and some really, very cold air there.

Rain this morning until around midday, some showers will follow and only a little brightness. However the main story will be the wind – becoming strong by around midday, but during late afternoon there looks to be a spell of 2-3 hours of gales, roughly between 3pm and 7pm. There is still a bit of uncertainty on the track – the strongest winds could be our area, or they may be a little further north. The strongest gusts look likely to be around 60mph which will be enough to cause some damage and disruption. Mild, 13’C.

The wind easing in the evening and overnight, though still breezy, quite cloudy and the odd stray shower possible. Down to around 8’C.

Wednesday will be a day of some sunny spells, but plenty of cloud and a few showers – some heavy. Maybe you’ll miss them all, but more likely you’ll get a couple during the course of the day. Around 9’C and breezy. Clear skies developing overnight, down to around 4’C.

Thursday likely starts bright, but the next low pressure system will probably encroach as the day goes on – some uncertainty on the track, but more likely than not there will be a spell of rain during the day, more likely afternoon, and probably it becomes windy once more. Around 8’C. A bit colder overnight, some showers still possible – down to around 2’C.

The low pressure starts to weaken on Friday – by this point the jetstream is diving towards North Africa – changes are afoot. Plenty of cloud for Friday, likely a few showers and a bit of sunshine at times. Temperatures around 7’C. Uncertain on cloud amounts overnight – fog and frost possible, more so the former, but perhaps just cloudy and chilly instead.

By Saturday, low pressure is over the continent and we are starting to source our air from the east.

Likely quite a lot of cloud though some sunny spells, and a small chance of a light shower. Around 5’C, maybe 6’C and starting to feel a bit colder. Some uncertainty on cloud amounts overnight, but there should be enough clear spells for a slight frost, around 0’C – give or take.

Sunday sees the breeze pick up so it will feel colder, with temperatures reaching 4’C. Some sunny spells, some cloud – a chance of a shower which could have a wintry note should you catch one. Probably frosty overnight, some cloud and a small chance of a wintry shower – down to around -2’C, give or take.

Next week looks mostly dry and fairly cold with high pressure close to or over the UK. Too early for details and will depend on exact position of the high pressure system.

Potential for fog both day and night, potential for frosts too (especially if fog doesn’t form) – daytimes will either be sunny, cloudy or foggy. And generally it will be on the cold side.

I wouldn’t rule out wintry showers – the high pressure will need to be a little more north than currently seems more likely, but it is within the scope of possibilities for next week.

The cold spell is more likely than not to continue after next week – perhaps being re-enforced by a plunge of Arctic air from the north.

Assuming the cold spell happens, it’s pretty impressive how well this was signalled in the weather models and background signals – Boxing Day was the first time I mentioned it, so almost two weeks away, though on 21st December I did mention a chance of short cold spells in my forecast during the first half of January.

Praise should go to the scientists developing the models and theories – I’m just putting it into words. That we can forecast the cold spell this far in advance, to me, is very impressive.

Oh and Happy New Year!…