Thursday 30th November 2023

A cold start to winter but gradually, if erratically, becoming milder – and at least somewhat wetter. There are still some small chances of snow to contend with, though more likely it will be all rain.

Thanks to Lucinda for the photograph.

So the general picture sees high pressure to our north-west, with the jetstream fairly fragmented, but a notable streak to our south, with a low pressure system which wasn’t far away from bringing us some snow today – 50 miles further north and we probably would have had at least some light snow.

Tonight sees mostly clear skies, down to around -2’C with a frost. Fog forming in places towards dawn.

Friday starts sunny in places, but foggy in other places. Those with the fog may find it takes quite some time to clear – but otherwise it will be a mostly sunny day, with a bit of cloud and a small chance of a wintry shower. Cold, 4’C at best. Clear skies overnight for a while but fog forming widely. Down to around -4’C – should you have a sheltered location and there is no fog, then it could easily be a fair bit lower.

Saturday starts foggy for most, and will likely take at least lunchtime for the fog/low cloud to lift – once it does (assuming it does in your location) then there will be sunny spells. Cold, 3’C at best – though if the fog/low cloud doesn’t clear then maybe no higher than 0’C. In the evening/overnight a little feature looks like bringing some precipitation for a couple of hours, across the south of England. More likely rain or a wintry mix – but possible it falls as snow and settles. One to watch – if I have time, I’ll update nearer the time but my life is kinda hectic right now, so do check with the Met Office nearer the time if interested! Though it could just be one of those too marginal situations to call even a few hours in advance.

Not especially high confidence for Sunday, but broadly speaking cloudy and cold is the more likely outcome, with a small chance of some showery rain. Around 3’C. Rain spreading up from the south-west overnight – as it hits the cold air there’s a chance that there could be some form of wintry mix to start, but more likely it is rain. Around 3’C overnight.

We start next week with colder air still in place, but low pressure trying to push in from the south-west.

Outbreaks of what should be rain on Monday – some uncertainty on details though generally quite patchy light/moderate rain is more likely, and probably quite windy. Temperatures will depend on how far north the low pressure system gets, somewhere between 3’C and 7’C.

And that’s about as far as I can go right now.

Next week will be a battle between an irrepressible force and an immovable block – the former being a resurgent Atlantic with a much stronger jetstream, the latter being the high pressure blocking to our north-east.

It should become at least a bit milder for a while though whether it will be wet is uncertain – it’s possible that Monday’s low gets stuck and slowly fades over the days after, and other low pressure systems cannot quite make it due to the block to the north-east.

On the flip side, it is possible that we do end up in a succession of low pressure systems and have a wet week.

But with the high pressure block lurking to our north-east, and some really cold air over Scandinavia – it’s plausible that at some point the cold air could make another attempt to head our way.

An interesting week ahead.…

Monday 27th November 2023

A fairly cold week ahead with mixed weather, some sunshine, some frost, some rain and perhaps even some snow. Certainly our first chance of snow, of the season, anyway. Chance is emphasised.

Thanks to Carly for the photograph – I thought I better use a contributor’s sunrise seeing as I’ve used my own from a different country!

As a general overview, we start with low pressure over the southern half of the country, with much colder weather to the north-east over Scandinavia – the jetstream is much weaker once more, and tracking further south than normal.

Today will be cloudy with outbreaks of rain or drizzle, more patchy at first, somewhat more persistent and moderate from late morning into the afternoon. A bit milder this morning, around 9’C, but feeling colder later as the breeze picks up and swings to the north-east. Fairly cloudy overnight, the odd shower in the breeze possible, down to around 3’C.

Some cloud at times on Tuesday but generally it will be rather sunny, though on the cold side at around 6’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight and a frost for most, down to around -1’C, give or take.

Wednesday will be a cold but mostly sunny day. A bit of cloud around. Reaching around 4’C, maybe 5’C. Clear skies with a frost, at least at first overnight – more uncertainty later as low pressure approaches. Down to around -2’C but give or take a couple.

Thursday is a tricky day – low pressure will be approaching from the west but the track is uncertain. I think the somewhat more likely outcome is for it to go over northern France, and in which case we’ll stay dry but cloudy, perhaps hazy sunshine.

However if this is a bit further north, then it would bring outbreaks of rain which could turn to snow. Very much one to watch this as it could be disruptive if it occurs, though at the moment is around a 25% chance.

Either way, cold at around 4’C, possibly windy. Overnight also depends on what the low pressure did – cold, possibly frosty, possibly a wintry shower.

Friday looks cold in a fairly raw north-easterly wind.

Low pressure to the south-east/east could bring a wintry shower or two, but otherwise most likely sunny but cold, around 4’C. Likely frosty overnight.

Saturday more likely cold but sunny, with temperatures around 4’C.

Sunday perhaps starts to see an attempt at returning to our more usual westerly flow, though when a cold block gets established, it often needs more than one attempt.

So maybe something a tad milder with some showery rain for Sunday but very low confidence on conditions. Perhaps this brings in milder air for next week, perhaps we have to wait a few more days.

Quite a bit of uncertainty and a fairly interesting output synoptically – I cannot say I expected a full week of colder conditions when I mentioned around 10 days ago that something colder was possible towards the end of the month – I didn’t think the background signals supported it, but here we are. I’ll update during the week if the snow chance increases for Thursday…do keep an eye on official forecasts too (and not spammy websites telling you that 8 metres of snow is guaranteed at 1:14pm).…

Wednesday 22nd November 2023

I’m finally flying back to England tomorrow, so am I bringing the warmer weather with me? Absolutely the opposite – colder air is going to spread down from the north. A wintry surprise is not out of the question in such a set-up.

No photographs from anyone, so you’ll have to cope with one of my sunrise photos and pretend it is really the banks of the River Thames.

Today will generally be cloudy – some brightness at first and a little hazy sunshine, the odd spot of light rain possible at times this afternoon. Reaching around 11’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, again the odd bit of light rain/drizzle possible, and around 10’C.

High pressure in control for Thursday – some sunny spells but quite a fair amount of cloud too. A bit milder, around 12’C or so. Becoming breezy later in the day. A weak weather front slips south overnight, bringing an hour or two of light/moderate rain roughly around midnight, give or take, then clearer to follow, down to around 7’C.

For Friday we see high pressure to the west of Ireland, and a colder, more northerly flow becoming established.

Some cloud around at times, especially at first but generally rather sunny. Feeling colder, reaching around 8’C in a northerly-ish wind. Welcome back, James. Clear skies overnight and a frost probable, down to around 0’C – only uncertainty is it might be a tad too breezy for a frost.

Saturday will be sunny but cold – just 5’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, a frost again probable – down to around 0’C, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see it down to -4’C in places – again a bit of uncertainty, this time on cloud amounts.

Sunday is a bit more uncertain. The more likely outcome sees it remaining mostly sunny, perhaps hazy sunshine and on the cold side – somewhere around 6’C. However, some models do bring a decaying low pressure system to our west, which could instead bring some cloud and patchy rain – if so, more likely afternoon/evening.

Monday probably sees this decaying low pressure close by – details uncertain but likely a bit milder, on the cloudy side and perhaps some patchy rain.

I’m at a loss as to where we go from there. It’s very possible that cold air will try to push down again from the north, or perhaps more likely north-east/east – though at the same time, weaker low pressure systems will try to push in from the west. Where these two air masses meet, then wintry surprises could be possible – but most likely any precipitation will be rain.

I wouldn’t rule out a return to milder westerly flows outright, nor would I rule out a full-on cold easterly. But some kind of messy middle ground looks more likely, with temperatures on the cold side, and generally a mixture of expected weather types for late November.

Not sure when the next forecast will be, I guess maybe on Wednesday. Enjoy the, erm, colder weather.…

Sunday 19th November 2023

Some more showers in the next couple of days but then settling down for a short while.

Thanks to Zara for the photograph.

The general picture sees low pressure crossing the UK, though a ridge of high pressure is waiting to our west.

Today sees some sunny spells to start, though there will be quite a lot of cloud during the day, some occasional brightness, and a few showers too. Mild but windy, 13’C. Fairly clear skies for most of the night, though cloudier with a cluster of showers before dawn. Down to around 8’C.

Any early showers will clear to sunny spells on Sunday morning, though once again it will become rather cloudy, with the odd shower/bits of light rain. Around 12’C and breezy. Fairly cloudy overnight with some showers, down to around 9’C.

Tuesday sees the low pressure system drift into the continent but it will leave a lot of cloud behind, the odd spot of light rain – with a little brightness later in the day. Around 10’C, maybe 11’C. Fairly cloudy overnight though the cloud thinning at times – so it could get quite chilly, say down to around 3’C, though a bit of uncertainty on that.

Wednesday looks fairly cloudy but the cloud may thin at times to allow a bit of hazy sunshine. Around 11’C and breezy. Quite cloudy overnight, though some clear spells, down to around 8’C.

High pressure will be nudging in for Thursday.

This should allow for more in the way of sunny spells, though still plenty of cloud – especially around the middle part of the day. A tad milder, 12’C. A mixture of cloud and clear spells overnight, down to around 7’C.

Fairly low confidence but it looks more likely that by Friday, high pressure orientates itself to allow somewhat colder air to spread down from the north or north-west.

Details pretty uncertain, generally a changeable feel seems more likely, with some bright, sunny and possible quite cold days, mixed with some cloudier and more showery days. A wintry surprise wouldn’t be impossible but a small chance at best, as it stands. Overnight frosts possible too.

Not sure when the next forecast will be…maybe Wednesday, we’ll see! Enjoy the rest of your weekend…I’m off to my next Airbnb, and assumedly final one.…

Wednesday 15th November 2023

Some more wind/rain/showers to come but something drier developing next week with high pressure closer.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

Today will see decent spells of sunshine. Seriously. A small chance of a shower this morning, but otherwise pleasant with sunny spells, and some cloud – a bit more high cloud later. 11’C, maybe squeezing a 12’C. On the breezy side. Cloud gradually thickening overnight with some outbreaks of rain arriving before dawn. Down to around 5’C.

Thursday sees a new area of low pressure cross the south of the UK – the jetstream remains on a southerly track, though not for too much longer.

Thursday likely sees rain for much of the day – sometimes heavy, sometimes light, and it will be fairly windy. I say “likely” as there is some uncertainty on the track, and it isn’t impossible that it is further south, and we remain cloudy with just some bits of rain. Notably cool, 7’C at best. Cloudy for most of the night, with some occasional bits of rain still possible – some clear spells probable by dawn, with temperatures getting down to around 2’C – a chance of a frost by dawn.

Friday looks reasonably sunny – some cloud at times, but a pleasant, if cool, day – around 9’C. Cloud gradually thickening overnight, with outbreaks of rain arriving in the latter part of the night, and becoming quite windy. Down to around 3’C at first but temperatures picking up as the night goes on.

Saturday morning sees outbreaks of rain – sometimes heavy. This should clear during the afternoon, but timing uncertain – so you may get some late afternoon sunshine. Windy, especially in the morning but much milder too as we tap into the Iberian warmth – you don’t want to know how warm it has been down here for me in Malaga this last week! 14’C back home. Cloud gradually clearing overnight, a shower not impossible, still quite windy and around 10’C.

Low pressure still around for Sunday – a fairly mixed day, some sunny spells, some cloud and some scattered showers – and still quite windy. Around 13’C.

Low pressure still close by for Monday, but high pressure rising in the Atlantic to our west, should come to have more influence as the week goes on.

Showers for Monday, and less so on Tuesday – some sunny spells and around 10’C.

Wednesday through Friday more likely dry or mostly dry – any weather fronts that make it through should be on the weak side. Unsure on sunshine amounts, and temperatures broadly around average – should skies be clear overnight then frost will be possible.

Perhaps something colder for the week after, though more likely we return to something fairly unsettled once more.

The form horse for December, remains mild and otherwise pretty average in my eyes, perhaps slightly drier than average.

Not sure when the next forecast will be – perhaps Saturday morning, it’s possible I will be back in England next week (will be quite a shock to leave the warm sunshine), but life will still be a bit chaotic until I get settled into my new place, so forecasts will remain haphazardly timed.…

Friday 10th November

Mixed weather ahead – some rain, but also some sunshine too.

I thought I’d indulge myself and share a sunrise photograph from my current destination in Spain – moving onto Malaga tomorrow, though I wish I was moving back to London into my new flat…alas…solicitors. Warm sunshine down here is a decent consolation, and it is about to warm up more!

Today starts with an area of heavy showers pushing south-east, fading as it does so but most places will see some heavy rain out of it. Gradually brightening up in the afternoon, reaching around 9’C so on the cool side. Fairly breezy too. Fairly clear skies overnight, temperatures down to around 2’C, so a touch of ground frost possible in places.

So the general pattern for Saturday sees a ridge of high pressure building, though a large area of low pressure is waiting out to the west for us.

Saturday will therefore be a pleasant autumn day, lots of sunshine, a bit of cloud and temperatures around 10’C. Cloud thickening overnight as a weather front approaches, temperatures down to around 3’C – some spots of rain possible by dawn.

Sunday looks a mostly cloudy day, with some patchy light rain at first in the morning, then some more persistent rain arriving at some point in the afternoon, for 2-3 hours or so. Some brightness possible at times, though generally fairly cloudy, 10’C and breezy. Further showery rain spreading across from the south-west later in the night, around 8’C.

Monday starts with showery rain, possibly heavy. Brighter in the afternoon with sunny spells, a shower possible but not especially likely. Windy but much milder, around 15’C. Variable cloud overnight, a shower possible, around 10’C.

Tuesday is more likely a day of sunny spells and occasional showers – though there is a chance that a cut-off low from the main low pressure system to our north-west could develop, bringing more general heavy rain and strong winds – one to watch, but the less likely outcome. Around 13’C.

Wednesday more likely is settled, some sunny spells, some cloud and breezy. Around 12’C.

Thursday again sunny spells, but a chance of a few showers, around 11’C.

A hint of higher pressure around for next weekend, or roughly around then, which would mean something more settled and drier – though confidence not especially high.

Enjoy your weekend, and I shall enjoy mine too in the 25’C sunshine. I’m really really delaying my autumn this year!…

Tuesday 7th November 2023

The Atlantic still in charge, but high pressure nudging up from the south from time to time – so a mixed spell ahead.

Thanks to Louise for the glorious photograph.

Today starts with sunny spells. Cloud bubbling up and rather cloudy through the mid part of the day, perhaps a stray shower, then more in the way of sunshine at the afternoon goes on once more. 11’C, maybe 12’C and breezy. Clear spells at first, temperatures down to around 5’C, though cloud thickening after midnight with some patchy rain by dawn.

Wednesday sees the next weather front arrive, with the associated low pressure system some way behind it in the Atlantic, but heading our way. Outbreaks of rain for much of the morning, lasting into at least part of the afternoon, though it should be brighter to end the day. Just about squeezing 13’C with fairly strong winds in the morning. Fairly cloudy overnight, a stray heavy shower possible towards dawn, down to around 6’C.

Thursday sees sunny spells and a few scattered showers, perhaps heavy. Some places may miss them, say a 60% chance of catching one or two. Cooler, around 10’C and breezy. Further showers possible overnight, down to around 6’C.

Friday likely starts rather cloudy, some bits of showery rain possible – though some uncertainty as to where the centre of the low pressure will be situated, and hence any showers. It will clear east during the morning, sunny spells follow, with the odd stray shower. Cool and breezy, 10’C. Fairly clear skies overnight and a chilly one, down to around 3’C – a touch of ground frost in places.

Saturday sees a ridge of high pressure before the next low pressure system arrives. Plenty of sunshine, a bit of cloud around, but cool – around 9’C, maybe 10’C.

There’s some uncertainty on the arrival of this low pressure system – maybe it arrives on Saturday night, bringing some rain after a chilly start to the night, but maybe it doesn’t arrive until Sunday or even Monday – some suggestions that Saturday’s ridge of high pressure might just hang on. If so, then Saturday night could be frosty – around 0’C or below.

So Sunday probably sees some rain at some point.

Then Monday and into next week is likely to see further spells of wind and heavy rain – though definite suggestions that high pressure could build around next weekend to bring something drier, at least for a few days.…

Friday 3rd November 2023

Remaining fairly unsettled – it was even windy here in Spain yesterday. Some sunnier, drier days in the mix too though.

Thanks to Christel for her other wonderfully gloomy photograph.

A calmer day today, some sunshine, some cloud and one or two heavy showers around, more likely mid-late afternoon, but not impossible at other times. Reaching 13’C, maybe 14’C, and breezy. Clear spells for a time tonight, though clouding over with rain arriving around dawn, or slightly before. Down to around 5’C.

So the scene for Saturday sees pretty much the whole of Europe dominated by a large low pressure trough, with the jetstream further south than normal, through France. This will shift north during the course of next week – but doesn’t change the weather for us.

Saturday morning sees rain spread north, a good few hours of rain, some heavy bursts particularly on the back edge. Heavy showers immediately follow, though with sunny spells too. Windy in the rain, breezy after, 12’C, maybe 13’C. Showers still possible into the evening, and quite a lot of cloud overnight – though some clear spells. Down to around 8’C.

Early cloud on Sunday should clear to a pleasant day with sunny spells. Just an outside chance of a shower. 11’C, maybe 12’C and breezy. Some cloud and some clear spells overnight, down to around 6’C.

Monday sees sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud. The odd shower possible, say around a 30% chance of catching one, still breezy and around 12’C. Probably dry and chilly overnight, though there is a small chance of an area of showers crossing instead – more likely at the moment that this heads over France.

Assuming the overnight area of showers headed to France, Tuesday should be a sunny day, with a bit of cloud. On the cool side at 10’C, maybe 11’C.

Wednesday likely sees rain crossing.

Thursday and Friday, not especially high confidence, but more likely drier with some sunshine.

Likewise not especially high confidence for next weekend, but more mixed with some showers/rain – but not a total washout.

Winter still looks like a milder winter than normal, perhaps much milder, with December a mixture of unsettled spells and settled, and January/February currently more likely to be drier than normal.

Snow-lovers will probably need to wish for a sudden stratospheric warming event – though short cold spells will be possible.…