Tuesday 31st October 2023

Staying unsettled with Storm Ciaran arriving for Wednesday night into Thursday. You could call it a Halloween forecast.

Thanks to Christel for the perfect photograph.

Today sees some sunny spells, though plenty of cloud around and chance of a shower or two, though pretty hit and miss. Cloud gradually thickening during the afternoon, with rain arriving around 5/6pm ish. Reaching around 14’C. Outbreaks of rain this evening, some heavy, with occasional showers following overnight. Around 13’C and becoming quite windy. Some notably heavy showers possible around dawn, or just before.

Wednesday starts with heavy/very heavy showers. Sunny spells and scattered showers follow for the rest of the day. 13’C and fairly windy. Dry for a time in the evening, but rain arriving by late evening, some heavy rain, and this followed by heavy/very heavy showers overnight. Some strong gusts of wind too – perhaps sufficient for some damage/disruption, a few trees/fence panels down, etc.

Thursday sees Storm Ciaran in control.

Possibly some strong gusts of wind to start the day, but it will calm down for a time during the morning – rain on and off all day, sometimes heavy, and the winds against strengthen during the afternoon, probably reaching gale force with gusts around 50mph – again some minor damage to fence panels, some trees down, etc. 11’C at best. Rain and wind gradually fading overnight, down to around 8’C.

Friday will be calmer, rather cloudy in the morning though some bright spells – more in the way of sunshine as the day goes on. Reaching around 12’C and still quite windy. Clear skies at first overnight, though cloud gradually thickening with rain arriving before dawn. Down to around 6’C.

Saturday sees rain in the morning, likely fairly heavy, with sunny spells and scattered heavy showers in the afternoon. Reaching around 12’C and fairly windy.

Sunday doesn’t look too bad – some cloud, some sunny spells, the odd scattered shower. Around 12’C and breezy.

Remaining unsettled next week (and probably the week after) with hints of something cooler too.…

Thursday 26th October 2023

The weather is staying unsettled, and I’m staying in Spain…well…at least until my flat completes or work complain.

This will be a fairly short forecast as I have lots to do, and also be aware that I haven’t been checking weather models other than a cursory glance the last couple of days, so I’m not following trends, just one set of models.

And no photograph this time.

Early cloud and showery rain will clear to sunshine and a few scattered heavy showers – most places catching one or two, but you may miss them. Reaching around 15’C. Some clear spells tonight, which will lead to fog forming in places, down to around 6’C.

By Friday our next low pressure is approaching, but it is moving slowly as the pattern is fairly blocked.

Early fog will life into sunny spells, but showers will develop, likely on the heavy side, perhaps a rumble of thunder. Around 14’C. Showers plausible overnight, though some uncertainty, around 10’C.

Saturday starts with sunny spells and showers. Cloud will thicken in the afternoon with general rain arriving somewhere between mid-afternoon and early evening, giving a fair few hours of heavy rain, followed by heavy showers with a rumble of thunder possible. Fairly windy too. Heavy showers remain possible overnight, down to around 10’C.

Sunday is again back to more in the way of sunshine and heavy showers – plausible that a spell of general heavy rain could spread up once more, but not especially likely. Around 14’C and breezy. Further showers or longer spells of heavy rain probably spreading up from the south overnight.

Monday likely sees further heavy/very heavy showers, thunder possible too, spreading up from the south. Slightly warmer air mixed in, and 15’C, maybe 16’C possible.

Tuesday and Wednesday likely remain showery, perhaps with longer spells of rain.

Hints of something windier for Thursday, with a deeper low pressure system – but that is still a week away.

I should get back into a regular cadence next week. And yes, it is sunny and 26’C here in southern Spain. Though rain forecast this evening, if that is any consolation.


Friday 20th October 2023

Fairly unsettled but fairly mild.

Thanks to Fiona for the photograph – it’s from July, but similar weather to now.

So, Storm Babet is in control of our weather, though not much in the way of effect for us down here.

A cloudy start to Friday with bits of showery rain possible, though the bulk of the rain will be to our north. Some bright spells will develop later in the morning and into the afternoon, but also some scattered showers, which could be heavy. A fairly warm airmass for the time of year, reaching around 16’C. Further scattered showers overnight, no lower than around 12’C.

Low pressure is right on top of us for Saturday – it will be rather cloudy with some showers, the showers likely heavy and perhaps merging into longer spells of showery rain at times. Some brightness also at times, and some uncertainty as to the distribution of showers. Reaching around 15’C, maybe a tad more with a bit more sunshine. Still some showery bits in the evening but dry with clear spells overnight, down to around 7’C.

Sunday looks reasonably pleasant. Sunny spells, some fair weather cloud, one or two scattered innocuous showers but many places avoiding them. Reaching around 14’C, maybe 15’C. Cloud thickening from the south overnight, down to around 8’C – give or take a couple.

Monday starts with hazy sunshine. Cloud will gradually thicken with rain spreading up from the south, arriving some time between mid-afternoon and mid-evening – some uncertainty on the timing. Reaching around 16’C and becoming rather breezy. Rain, possibly heavy, for a spell in the evening, perhaps reaching into the night, though tending to clear later – showers may follow.

By Tuesday, we have low pressure over the UK, with more waiting to our west.

Details a bit uncertain, but broadly some sunny spells, a fair amount of cloud and some showers. Around 15’C.

Wednesday looks broadly dry to start with rain later – uncertain on timing, so perhaps overnight.

And the general theme for Thursday through into the weekend looks fairly unsettled – showers or rain many days, though there will be drier days too. Temperatures on the mild side.

November is hinting at starting on the unsettled side, with a more southerly tracking jetstream meaning low pressure systems further south than normal – though an increasing tendency for drier weather later in the month seems more likely.

December looking milder than average, though arguably more likely wetter than average.

I don’t know when the next forecast will be as my life is about to be a bit chaotic – the joys of waiting for a flat purchase to complete with a tenancy agreement ending beforehand. So I don’t know where I’m living next week. Time to book a 2 week holiday, I guess!

Have a good weekend.…

Tuesday 17th October 2023

Becoming milder, but wetter.

Thanks to Chris for the photograph.

Today will be a day of hazy sunshine – the cloud gradually thickening during the day, broadly speaking, though with somewhat varying thickness and hence amounts of hazy sunshine. Milder, we should squeeze 15’C, as we pick up a flow from Spain. Becoming breezy too. Fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 10’C with a little patchy rain possible before dawn.

By Wednesday we see low pressure nudging in from the south-west.

Wednesday will generally be cloudy, the odd spot of patchy rain possible in the morning, though in the afternoon the rain will gather and spread north – some heavy bursts mixed in. This continuing until early/mid-evening. 16’C but windy, some fairly strong gusts at times. Fairly cloudy overnight, the odd shower possible, no lower than around 13’C, the wind easing somewhat.

Thursday morning starts with an area of showers moving north, fairly much first thing. This sets the theme for the day – often cloudy, sometimes raining – though the distribution of showers remains a little uncertain, you may well get frequent heavy showers, almost showery rain, or maybe just a few showers. Feeling somewhat warmer, 17’C or so. Further showers or showery rain possible overnight, though some uncertainty over where the focus will be. No lower than around 12’C.

Things get interesting on Friday, as high pressure re-establishes itself over Scandinavia, and stops our low pressure (Storm Babet) from going anywhere. If it was winter, such a set-up could lead to a major snowfall (though such things are never so straight-forward!).

Thankfully its October, so I don’t need to worry about “will it snow”, but there is uncertainty over both temperatures and rainfall. Generally it will be cloudy, and there will be at least some showery rain – perhaps persistent general rain. More likely we are still in the warmer air, reaching around 17’C – but its a fairly close call and will depend on the shape of the high pressure system over Scandinavia – it could be cooler and around 11’C instead. Roughly 70/30 split in terms of likelihood.

Showery rain still possible overnight, though less likely than during the day. Down to around 10’C with an easterly flow developing.

Not especially high confidence for Saturday, but more likely it is a mostly cloudy day, feeling cool in an easterly wind, perhaps some light showers. Temperatures between 10’C and 12’C. Probably too cloudy for a frost, but a chilly night likely.

Low confidence for Sunday, perhaps sunny spells and the odd shower, with temperatures somewhere between 10’C and 15’C – too much to be determined before then to have much confidence on details.

A more classic autumnal spell seems like the more likely way to go for next week and perhaps into early November – with spells of wind and rain, interspersed with fine days with the odd shower, being the most likely theme, and generally on the mild side.…

Friday 13th October 2023

Some rain, then colder.

Thanks to JoJo for the photograph – from July, but its kind of similar vibes today.

This morning starts warm but cloudy, some showers around which could be heavy. These push east to leave a few dry hours roughly late morning into early afternoon – some heavy sunshine and it will be warm, at around 20’C. Then showery rain pushes south-east later in the day, some heavy bursts likely, roughly between mid/late afternoon and early evening. Windy, especially this morning – much cooler once the rain clears this evening. Mostly clear skies in a chilly NNW breeze overnight, down to around 6’C.

For the weekend we have something colder, with a northerly flow setting up for Saturday.

Plenty of sunshine for Saturday, some fair weather cloud and one or two scattered showers – say a 50% chance of catching one or two, fairly innocuous. Feeling much cooler, around 13’C in a north-westerly breeze. Clear skies overnight and chilly, down to around 3’C.

Sunday sees long spells of sunshine, though becoming hazier in the afternoon. Just 11’C though – quite the change. Down to around 2’C overnight – the high-level cloud stopping it getting to freezing point.

By Monday, high pressure remains in control, though low pressure will be trying to edge in from the south-west – which means a continuation of the hazy sunshine of Sunday, and temperatures around 12’C. Uncertainty on cloud amounts overnight, and hence temperatures – though on the chilly side most likely.

For Tuesday, likely there will be reasonable amounts of sunshine, if perhaps hazy sunshine – some uncertainty on cloud amounts due to the uncertainty positioning of low pressure to our south/south-west. Around 14’C so feeling a bit milder, though breezy, if not windy.

Wednesday is when confidence starts to break down more – we likely see low pressure trying to push north, though the high pressure block won’t give way easily.

Take this with a pinch of salt, but something along the lines of hazy sunshine to start – chances of showery rain later in the day. This will need a couple more days to firm up, as it is a bit of a tricky transition. Fairly confident it will be windy, and temperatures roughly around 13’C.

Thursday more likely to see some showery rain – though probably also something slightly warmer, say around 16’C.

Again the forecast for next weekend depends on where this low pressure close to our south-west is, and where the high pressure close to our north-east is. Whichever is closer will determine our weather – it does look like a fairly blocked situation with neither moving too far for a few days at least.

So it could be rather wet/showery but mild, or it could be drier but cooler. Either way, a good chance of it being windy.

Have a good weekend. Maybe make sure your heating still works and find those jumpers!…

Tuesday 10th October 2023

The warm air mass remains, but with rain in the mix too. Then much cooler by Saturday – jumpers out, heating on.

Thanks to Sue for the photograph.

Today is another day with long spells of warm sunshine, albeit hazy at times with a fair amount of high-level cloud. Reaching around 22’C in a westerly breeze. Cloud thickening somewhat overnight, some patchy mist/fog possible – most places no lower than 15’C so a mild night.

By Wednesday we see the warm upper air ebbing away, colder air is trying to push down from the north, but low pressure is also edging in from the west.

Early mist/fog/low cloud patches will lift to hazy sunshine, though the cloud will gradually thicken during the day as a weather front very slowly edges south. 20’C should be reached, maybe a shade more. Uncertain as to when the rain arrives, likely by the evening we are seeing some showery rain – some quite heavy, some light – but maybe also some patchy rain during the afternoon. Further showery rain overnight, though trending generally drier as the night goes on, down to around 11’C.

For Thursday, we will still be in the warmer air mass, but it will be cloudy so temperatures restricted to around 16’C, give or take. Some early showery bits of rain possible, the odd bit of light rain possible in the afternoon too but otherwise mostly dry and mostly cloudy. Rain spreading north-east in the evening and overnight, heavy at times and some fairly strong winds. Very mild, 17’C.

Friday is a little complex, as we likely have two, maybe three distinct weather fronts. The one to the south will involve some heavy/very heavy rain – but exactly where it will be is uncertain, though I’d favour that we do get at least some heavy/very heavy rain at times in the morning. Once it clears there should be some hazy sunshine, and temperatures could easily reach 21’C, assuming so. Then the next weather front sinks south later in the day, the rain more patchy though there is potential for a spell of heavy rain into the evening – all highly uncertain.

However, if the southern weather front is further south, we may instead find the second weather front clearing through in the morning/afternoon, and cooler air spreading south earlier.

As I said, a complex picture and exact details on timing of rain bands, will need a couple more days.

Overnight sees clear skies and a chilly northerly wind, down to around 6’C.

So, from much warmer than normal to a bit colder than normal, as a northerly flow sets in.

Saturday will be reasonably sunny with a bit of fair-weather cloud and a small chance of a fairly innocuous shower. But in a northerly breeze, temperatures around 13’C. Down to around 3’C overnight – a touch of frost in places.

Sunday looks fairly sunny, some cloud around – but just 10’C, maybe 11’C at a push. Hmmm. Where summer gone? Down to around 0’C overnight, a frost for most.

Next week starts dry with sunny spells, but also on the chilly side for the time of year.

Uncertain where we go later in the week – I’d slightly fancy rain pushing in from the west for a fairly short unsettled spell, but it is uncertain. There is also a fairly strong signal for high pressure to build over Scandinavia, which would mean a chilly easterly is more likely later in the month.

Goodbye warmth, for now.…

Friday 6th October 2023

Welcome back, summer.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

Friday starts with a lot of high/mid-level cloud – bright but the sun only vaguely poking through. Gradually the cloud will thin and break, to bring a reasonably sunny day, if a bit hazy at times. Warm (for the time of year), 20’C. A mixture of clear spells and cloud overnight, down to around 13’C.

So the general set-up into the weekend sees high pressure over Spain/France pushing up into the UK, with a really exceptional level of warmth in the air mass – how many times have we seen this in the last 2-3 years?

Also of note, and slight effect, is a notable colder plunge into Scandinavia – to our east, but will have a slight moderating effect on our temperatures this weekend.

So Saturday sees long spells of sunshine. There will be some high cloud around, more notably in the afternoon which will make things hazy, and limit temperatures a tad below previous expectations – but still reaching around 23’C, give or take, which is very warm for the time of year. Just 8’C in Glasgow where the colder air will reach. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Sunday again sees long spells of sunshine, but there will again be plenty of high cloud around making it hazy at times – more notably in the morning. Warm again, reaching around 22’C, maybe 23’C. Quite a lot of high/mid-level cloud at times overnight, so a bit milder, 14’C.

Monday sees long spells of hazy sunshine – the cloud generally a bit thicker than the last two days, but bright with hazy sunshine will be the theme. Warm again, reaching around 22’C. The high/mid-level cloud remains overnight, down to around 13’C.

Tuesday remains in the warm air mass, still likely a covering of high/mid-level cloud so hazy sunshine, but also perhaps a tad warmer, say around 24’C. The high/mid-level cloud remains overnight, down to around 13’C.

Wednesday looks like the goodbye summer day – uncertain on the timeline but the warmth should hang on with some hazy sunshine in the morning, a band of potentially heavy rain spreading down from the north-west later in the day/evening – maybe overnight. As I said, timeline uncertain. Reaching somewhere between 18’C and 22’C, depending on when the rain arrives.

By Thursday, the somewhat colder air mass to the north-west will more likely spread down.

It’s not certain – it isn’t even impossible that the warmth hangs on another day, but more likely we are looking at sunny spells, some cloud, a small chance of a shower and temperatures somewhere between 13’C and 16’C. A chilly night likely – down to roughly 5’C, though very give and take at this stage.

That’s about as far as I can go – likely more autumnal in terms of temperature next weekend, it should be around the 13’C to 16’C range – but whether it is wet, or sunny, is highly uncertain. It isn’t impossible that the relative warmth returns (or never left) but is only around a 10% chance.

There is a fairly strong signal for the week after to be unsettled, wet and windy – and again a signal for something drier and milder (semi-warm?) for later in the month.

Enjoy your weekend…I have lots of boxes to pack for an upcoming house move…which would be very exciting if I knew where I was moving to. Maybe I’ll just have another holiday to Spain.…

Monday 2nd October 2023

Some rain today but high pressure building from tomorrow – and probably exceptionally warm for the time of year by the weekend. Clearly we had enough autumn in July.

Thanks to Mel for the photograph.

A tricky forecast for today, it starts cloudy and dull, perhaps a splash of light rain. A weather front will develop in situ, likely a bit further north than here but we’ll still get some showery rain this afternoon and into the evening. However, the complex part is that some thundery downpours will probably also develop to the south of the main weather front, ie over our area – potentially torrential with at least some thunder/lightning, but whether they are widespread, or just very localised with many places missing them, is uncertain. Reaching around 20’C – still unseasonably warm, and some hazy sunshine possible at times this afternoon, in between whatever bits of showery rain/thundery downpours we have. Cloudy with occasionally bits of showery rain overnight, down to around 13’C.

So the warmth is pushed away for Tuesday, but high pressure will be close by, ready to build.

Any early cloud will clear quickly, to leave sunny spells and fair-weather cloud. A couple of scattered heavy showers will develop during the morning, around a 50% chance of catching one, possibly with a rumble of thunder. During the afternoon, these fade, still a small chance of a light shower, but otherwise fair with sunny spells and some cloud. A fresher feel and rather breezy, but still reaching 18’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 9’C.

Wednesday sees high pressure start to build – quite a bit of cloud around, and sunshine more of the hazy variety. Reaching around 17’C and breezy. Fairly clear skies overnight though generally with some high cloud, down to around 9’C.

Thursday looks rather cloudy, though it should be bright, and thinning enough for some weak hazy sunshine at times. Around 17’C, maybe 18’C. Weather fronts will pass close to our north overnight, there may be some patchy rain but uncertain – 60/40 it stays dry. Otherwise cloudy and around 11’C.

On Friday, high pressure makes more of a move north. We likely keep a veil of high/mid-level cloud, though as the day goes on the more this should thin, perhaps break – so hazy sunshine is the more likely outcome, but perhaps some clear skies later. Warm, 20’C, maybe 21’C. A mild night, around 14’C.

By Saturday, high pressure is likely (not 100% certain but good enough for now) to be pushing an exceptionally warm air mass north.

Likely sunny, perhaps some high cloud around, and temperatures reaching a very warm 25’C, perhaps a tad more. Down to around 15’C overnight.

Sunday should be very similar, long spells of sunshine, a bit of high cloud perhaps, and reaching somewhere in the range of 24’C to 26’C.

Monday likely remains on the warm side, though confidence is reducing.

Not especially high confidence, but a suggestion that it cools down later next week with a more northerly or north-westerly flow – and it will feel more like autumn.

Weak signals for something more changeable through mid-month with more in the way of rain or showers, and an ongoing signal for the second half of the month to be warmer than normal overall (though I’m not really pushing the boat out there!).…