Friday 28th July 2023

Showery is the theme, and becoming cooler as August starts.

If I announce summer is over, that means it might restart, right? Granted it isn’t a washout like the summers of 2007-2012, but warm, sunny days are in the minority.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

Today will be fairly cloudy, some occasional bits of light rain possible during the morning but also some occasional brightness too – the sun poking through from time to time. During the afternoon, there will be somewhat more in the way of sunshine, one or two well scattered showers and it will be fairly warm, reaching around 23’C. Fairly cloudy overnight with one or two showers, potentially heavy. No lower than 16’C.

So the general pattern for Saturday sees the next low pressure system arriving, with the following one already showing in the Atlantic. Yep, I’m booking more holidays ASAP.

Sunny spells and showers for Saturday – more showers in the morning and through lunchtime, you may miss them all but more likely you get a couple. Fewer showers and more sunny spells in the afternoon – reasonably pleasant! Fairly warm, we should just about get 22’C – quite windy though. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

Sunday starts with sunny spells, though cloud gradually thickens during the morning – perhaps a shower before it does. Some outbreaks of rain in the afternoon – its not a well-developed weather front so it’s going to be a bit patchy, and some uncertainty on timing, but some rain at some points from midday onwards. Around 20’C or so, windy too. Cloudy overnight with some bits of rain, but often dry, no lower than 16’C.

Low pressure systems remain in charge for Monday though a little uncertainty on where weather fronts will be. A good enough general guide for the morning would be for it to be fairly cloudy with some showers (perhaps general rain), and for the afternoon more in the way of sunny spells, though again some showers possible. Warm and quite windy, around 23’C or so. Variable amounts of cloud overnight, some showers possible (a small chance of general rain though more likely over France), down to around 14’C.

Low pressure still in charge for Tuesday, now centred in the North Sea.

Some uncertainty on details – possibly wet, possibly dry, but most likely sunny spells and heavy showers, the potential for them to be very heavy and thundery. Around 21’C and less windy.

It doesn’t get any easier to forecast from here, and certainly doesn’t become more summer-like.

The more likely outcome for Wednesday through Friday sees a more northerly flow setting in with low pressure to our east. Some sunny spells, plenty of cloud and plenty of heavy showers, though perhaps fewer by Friday. Temperatures probably around the 18’C to 20’C mark – cool for early August.

There is a chance instead, that we get another low pressure system on Wednesday, bringing heavy rain and strong winds – then we get our northerly in the following days.

Which option do you want?!

We might get a ridge of high pressure for next weekend. It is the slightly more likely outcome, which would lead to a fine weekend, though perhaps it might be a fine Friday/Saturday with some rain by Sunday instead.

However, very low confidence, due to a possible tropical storm development in the Atlantic next week, so anything more than 5 days away has to be more uncertain than usual.

Maybe there will be something more summer-like in the second half of August. Maybe.

Have a good weekend.…

Tuesday 25th July 2023

A very un-special week for peak summer, but not a washout either.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph. As a reminder, retrieving images from Facebook messages is still not working for me, so I can only use any you e-mail to me, or add as comments to a post.

So the general picture sees the jetstream running from North American, across the UK and well into Europe – which has helped to make our unsettled spell difficult to dislodge.

Though the Azores High is trying to nudge in from the south-west – not with sufficient force to stop low pressure dominating, but it will nudge low pressure systems a bit further north, and give us some drier days. Don’t get too excited.

Sunny spells to start Tuesday, though cloud will quickly bubble up with a couple of showers breaking out by mid/late morning – around a 50% chance of catching one or two. These showers fade during the afternoon, and there will be a bit more sunshine, but plenty of cloud too. Temperatures struggling to 19’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Wednesday looks fair – sunny to start, fair weather cloud bubbling up, then slowly during the afternoon high/mid-level cloud thickening from the west. Warmer, 22’C, maybe 23’C. Rain arrives by early/mid-evening, continuing overnight with some heavy/very heavy bursts possible. Breezy and no lower than 15’C.

Thursday starts cloudy, perhaps still some showery rain at first light. It stays cloudy during the morning, perhaps some further bits of showery rain, more likely towards lunchtime. At some point in the afternoon, the sun should come out, still some cloud, still a small chance of a shower but otherwise pleasant – though it may take a while to arrive. Reaching 23’C or so and warm, once the sun comes out. Likely becoming cloudy overnight, and around 15’C or so.

Friday looks rather cloudy but rather warm. A bit of sunshine at times, particularly later in the day, a few showers, especially in the morning, though unlikely anything too heavy. Temperatures between 22’C and 24’C, depending on (limited) sunshine amounts. Variable cloud overnight and a chance of a shower, around 16’C.

Our next low pressure system will be arriving into north-west Scotland by Saturday.

Down here the weather won’t be too bad, some cloud, some sunshine, a few showers through the middle part of the day but hit and miss – perhaps quite heavy. Showers less likely later in the day, but cannot be ruled out. Breezy, around 21’C. Fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

Probably more showers around on Sunday, and more likely to be heavy, with a rumble of thunder – but far enough away to have some uncertainty – maybe it stays mostly dry, maybe there is general showery rain, but sunshine and scattered heavy showers is generally the more likely outcome. Reaching around 22’C and breezy.

Early next week likely sees more wind, rain and heavy showers as another area of low pressure moves through.

But there are hints of somewhat drier and sunnier weather after. I’m not suggesting a return to the weather we had in June, but a better balance towards something summer-like, though still showers on some days.

The chances of some hot weather looks better for the second half of August than the first half, though I wouldn’t yet say I have much confidence, and I certainly wouldn’t expect it to come without heavy showers/thundery downpours on some days.

So, hope for improvements in sunshine amounts and warmth from late next week, but keep expectations under control – it is 10 days away! Next forecast should be Friday morning.…

Friday 21st July 2023

Unsettled is the theme though today will be fair.

Thanks to Pauline for the photograph.

Today sees hazy sunshine – sunniest early this morning, gradually cloud will thicken during the day, particularly in the afternoon but it will remain bright with hazy sunshine. A small chance of a shower. Breezy, reaching 21’C so a little less warm than it has been. Some clear spells overnight though cloud thickening towards dawn, with some patchy rain possible. Down to around 12’C.

The general picture for Saturday sees the next area of low pressure move in – it will move across the country quicker than I previously expected, so less scope for persistent downpours – but still rain and heavy showers.

Saturday itself will be mostly cloudy, occasional patchy and likely light rain in the morning, but dry for much of the morning. The afternoon seeing the rain gradually becoming more persistent and moderate, perhaps heavy at times as the evening progresses. We might squeeze 19’C but pretty academic – quite windy too. Rain mostly clears around/after midnight, though it remains cloudy and the odd shower is possible. Around 16’C.

Sunday sees plenty of cloud but there will also be some sunny spells. Some uncertainty on details, particularly over shower development – the potential to develop some heavy showers, but that will depend on how much leftover cloud there is from the previous day’s rain – there could be too much cloud to develop showers. Reaching around 22’C, a warmer feel. Variable cloud overnight – a chance of showers or even showery rain, but again some uncertainty over exact developments. Around 15’C.

Again on Monday there is uncertainty on details – the more likely outcome is some sunny spells but plenty of cloud and some heavy/very heavy showers developing, perhaps thundery. However, there is a chance instead of some general showery rain, perhaps then clearing to something drier. Temperatures look on the cool side, between 18’C and 20’C, with a northerly breeze. Probably dry with some clear spells overnight, down to around 10’C.

Tuesday sees a ridge of high pressure, so fairer – some sunny spells, some cloud, a chance of a shower or two – though less likely than previous days. More likely you’ll stay dry than catch a shower or two. Around 21’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, though some high cloud, down to around 10’C.

Wednesday sees the next low pressure approaching. Have we jumped to autumn?

Likely sunny spells to start, if hazy, but cloud will gradually increase with rain arriving – it’s 5 days away so some leeway required on timing, but early to mid afternoon would seem a good approximation at this stage. With enough early sunshine then we should reach 20’C or so, though cooler once the rain arrives. Outbreaks of rain likely overnight.

Cloud clearing to sunny spells on Thursday, and perhaps a shower or two – though uncertain. Warmer, around 23’C or so.

Friday, maybe relatively fair though the next low pressure system will be arriving – they are pushing through quite speedily which also means much of the continental heat is being abated too, at least away from the far south/south-east of Europe. For us on Friday, some sunny spells, a chance of a shower seems the more likely outcome, and around 21’C.

The more likely outcome for next weekend sees further showers, perhaps some general wind and rain at some point, and temperatures not likely above 20’C.

Is there any hope for a return to summer-like conditions this year?

Well, yes. There are hints of high pressure trying to nudge in from the south-west during the first week of August – though likely it is still changeable with some rain/showers mixed in with dry days.

And hints from the second week of August that it may build in a more favourable position for some much warmer/hotter weather, though with the risk of thunderstorms and probably not a long-lasting change.

Overall August should still be a wetter than normal month, but perhaps we do still get some summer-like conditions in the mix too…which I guess we did early July too…but that seems a long way away now.

I do stress very low confidence on details for August.

Oh well.…

Tuesday 18th July 2023

A few usable days this week, though becoming unsettled once more by the weekend. Certainly no sign of any heatwave here.

No local photographs, so you’ll have to cope with one of my adventures in Paris.

So the general picture today sees high pressure to our south, low pressure to our north-east and a small under-developed low crossing the northern part of the UK.

Generally it will be fairly cloudy today, though the cloud often more high/mid-level cloud so some hazy sun at times – perhaps a shower in the afternoon but the bulk of the rain is across north England. Warm, reaching around 22’C, maybe 23’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, a spot of rain possible but generally dry. 15’C.

Wednesday starts fairly cloudy. The sun will poke through to bring sunny spells but still plenty of fair weather cloud. Some showers also bubbling up – generally more likely the further east you go, so around a 50% chance of catching one or two here, perhaps heavy. Warm, reaching 22’C, maybe 23’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.

Thursday starts sunny. Fair weather cloud will bubble up but there will remain reasonable spells of sunshine too. Again one or two showers around, say a 40% chance of catching one or two in the afternoon, and they could be heavy. Warm, around 23’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

Friday starts sunny again, however more cloud will develop than the day before – sunshine of the hazy variety at times, especially in the afternoon. A small chance of a shower, say 15% chance and temperatures a little lower – reaching around 21’C, maybe 22’C. Quite cloudy overnight, perhaps a spot of rain and down to around 12’C.

By Saturday we have the next low pressure arriving – not quite as notable as last weekend’s, but not ideal for weekend plans.

Saturday will generally be cloudy, perhaps some hazy sunshine in the morning – but bits and pieces of rain – the bulk of the rain will be to our north again, but there will be some for us, generally light/moderate but the odd heavy burst possible – more likely later in the afternoon and evening, but possible some bits before that. Around 18’C, maybe 19’C. Quite windy. Rain tending to become more persistent overnight, likely no lower than 16’C.

Details uncertain for Sunday, but likely cloudy with at least some showery, heavy rain – with a chance of heavy/very heavy rain all day, perhaps even thundery.

Most likely there will be further heavy rain/heavy showers to start next week – and perhaps all week. I wouldn’t rule out the rain being heavy and persistent enough to cause flooding.

Any hope for summer?

Well, there is a window of opportunity for change at the end of July/beginning of August, though I wouldn’t put too much hope into it. There are weak signals for high pressure to be in favourable locations for hot weather in the second half of August – but there were strong signals that July would be hot, so make of it what you will!…

Thursday 13th July 2023

Summer was broken – and it is about to get even more autumnal.

Thanks to Marina for the photograph.

Today will see plenty of cloud, some sunshine, and some scattered heavy showers – some places missing them, but more likely you’ll catch a couple of showers. Chances of showers lower later in the afternoon, with more sunshine. Reaching around 23’C and breezy. Becoming cloudy in the evening and overnight, down to around 15’C.

So the general picture for Friday sees our low pressure trough still in control of north-west Europe, but a new low pressure system arrives from warmer seas to our south-west arriving to inject more energy.

There might be some initial hazy sunshine, but outbreaks of showery rain arriving from the south-west during the morning – sometimes light, sometimes quite heavy, sometimes not raining. Potential for some particularly heavy bursts late afternoon into early evening, before it clears to leave a mostly dry evening. Windy and generally around 16’C to 18’C – though it may briefly be warmer/humid in the afternoon before the heavier showery rain late afternoon/early evening so a short spell of 22’C is possible. Variable amounts of cloud overnight, a shower possible, around 15’C.

Low pressure bang in charge for Saturday. Heavy showers from dawn onwards, perhaps very heavy with thunder – possibly even merging into a longer spell of heavy/very heavy rain for a couple of hours. Delightful. I’d be surprised if anywhere dodged all the showers, but possible – more likely you catch multiple showers. Tending to be fewer and less heavy towards the evening. Around 18’C, maybe 19’C. Oh and strong winds – unusually so for July, perhaps gusting gale force – don’t be shocked with a few tree branches down, etc. Variable cloud overnight, probably dry, still windy and around 14’C.

Low pressure pulls away on Sunday, leaving some sunny spells, plenty of fair-weather cloud and a few showers – possibly heavy, though some places avoiding them. Still quite windy, reaching around 20’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

A bit of uncertainty on Monday, but more likely sunny spells and scattered heavy showers. Reaching around 21’C in a lighter breeze.

Again Tuesday onwards is somewhat uncertain on details, though high pressure should at least be trying to build from the south-west – I don’t see a smooth transition from one regime to another though.

So in general, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday all look relatively fair, variable amounts of cloud and sunshine, scattered heavy showers possible, and temperatures in the range of 21’C to 23’C – so warm in any sunny spells.

Going any further is probably futile – there are suggestions of a tropical system developing far to our south-west and how that interplays with the Azores High will likely determine our weather following.

Certainly plausible, perhaps slightly more likely that late next week and into the weekend ends up with a more north-westerly flow, with the Azores High being squeezed north – to our west. Not the best set-up – cloud more likely than sun, and some showers, and temperatures likely a little below average.

However, also plausible is that the Azores High spreads further east, across the UK – and whilst sunshine/cloud amounts would be uncertain, it would be drier and warmer.

Such suggestions have been hinted at for a while, though keep being pushed back – and I guess until we resolve the developing tropical storm far to our south-west, then we’ll just have to hope for a return to something summer-like.

Next forecast probably not until Tuesday as I’m escaping the rain for a weekend in Paris…what wonderful timing! Au revoir.…

Monday 10th July 2023

Staying changeable with further showers – but some pleasant warm sunshine mixed in.

Thanks to Sara for the photograph.

The general set-up sees the low pressure trough still in charge over north-west Europe, with individual low pressure systems spinning up around it – with the next just to our west.

Sunny spells to start today but cloud amounts will gradually increase, and the afternoon will be fairly cloudy – a little brightness, perhaps a shower or two. Warm though becoming quite windy, 23’C. Soms showery rain possible in the evening – a particularly heavy pulse looks like being to our north-west, but is a close call so don’t be too surprised if there is a very wet evening, but more likely a bit of rain instead. Then overnight that rain will push east, perhaps heavy. Around 15’C.

Tuesday starts cloudy with outbreaks of rain – the rain will fade, haphazardly, though the cloud will remain for a while. Eventually during the afternoon the cloud will be replaced by sunny spells, and one or two scattered heavy showers – some uncertainty as to how long the cloud sticks around for though. Temperatures depending on how long the cloud sticks around for, but roughly in the area of 21’C, and still quite windy. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

Wednesday starts with sunny spells, but cloud will quickly bubble up with showers breaking out – probably heavy, perhaps a rumble of thunder. You might stay dry in your area, but more likely you get at least a couple of heavy showers. Around 21’C – not amazing for July. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

Thursday starts with sunny spells. Quite a lot of cloud bubbles up again, and more high-level cloud too – some showers but fewer than Wednesday and generally lighter. A tad warmer too, 22’C, maybe 23’C. Fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

By Friday we see the next area of low pressure to the west, though stalling a tad.

Generally quite a lot of cloud around, but some bright spells at times allowing hazy sunny spells, perhaps the odd lightish shower and reaching around 23’C. Showery rain probably crossing overnight though details a bit uncertain.

Saturday sees low pressure sat over the northern half of the UK, and most likely we have a wet day with spells of heavy/very heavy rain, perhaps even some thunder. Temperatures on the warm side, quite humid too, between 21’C and 24’C – despite the likely downpours.

That said, this isn’t quite a done deal yet – the position and development of the low pressure isn’t certain, so whilst a wet/very wet day is around a 70% chance, a day of sunshine and heavy showers is possible instead.

Sunday likely fairer with some sunny spells, but still some showers also.

Next week likely starts showery.

Is summer over? Not in my view, but there is no easy return to high-pressure dominated conditions like that of May/June.

There are suggestions that during next week, the Azores High nudges up towards us at times, which should increase the amount of settled weather, and reduce the amount of showery days. Still no signals for August’s weather, so generally mixed will have to be the assumption for now.

I did actually read something the other day that maybe the stratosphere has led to this unexpected unsettled spell in north-west Europe…cannot say that I understood much of what I read! But it would be good to understand why July hasn’t gone to expectations, and I wasn’t the only one thinking it would likely be a hot July. Oh well, weather will do what it does, and decades ago we would marvel at a forecast of 5 days out. Next forecast should be on Thursday.…

Friday 7th July 2023

Low pressure is in charge of our weather, and will be for the next 10 or so days – but whilst it stalls to our west, we get a brief reminder of proper summer. Plenty of showers/rain to come.

Summer isn’t over but it is definitely broken – I didn’t expect July to be low pressure dominated, nor did any other long-range forecast or any weather model that I saw. But…events happen and now our weather pattern is a bit stuck, as it seems to be across much of the northern hemisphere – patterns locked in.

That said – low pressure dominated yet glorious today, and still warm/very warm sunshine at times on other days – so it isn’t quite as bad as weather charts might suggest.

No local photograph this week – Facebook, like summer, remains broken. If you want to send me them, then comment on Facebook posts or e-mail them please. Instead you have one of mine, from Hackney Wick.

So the general picture sees two low pressure systems close to our west, dancing around each other – drawing up hot air, for now.

Today will be glorious, with sunshine all day and little cloud. Hot, reaching 28’C, maybe 29’C in southerly breeze. Clear skies overnight but a markedly warm night, no lower than 19’C.

Saturday starts bright and warm, humid too. A band of heavy showers will cross during the morning, thunder very possible. In the afternoon, there should be some sunshine, but scattered heavy, perhaps thundery downpours will break out – but much more hit and miss. Don’t be surprised if your area stays dry all afternoon – don’t be surprised if there is a lot of rain either, or anything in between. These thundery breakdowns are always a nightmare to forecast, though I lean towards the idea of the afternoon being mostly dry or just a shower, being the more likely outcome. Temperatures very much dependent on sunshine amounts, but assuming at least some sunshine then 27’C, give or take. A stray shower possible in the evening/overnight but mostly dry with high cloud – temperatures down to around 16’C.

Sunday isn’t the easiest day to forecast – there will be thundery rain to our east and thundery showers to our west, but we should be stuck in between. Which means quite a lot of high/mid-level cloud due to the rain to our east, but this should allow warm, hazy sunshine at times, particularly in the afternoon.

However, it remains possible that the thundery rain to our east, is actually further west and we get some rain – likewise it could be further east, and we are in the sunshine and heavy, thundery showers zone. Should either of those scenarios occur, then again more likely drier and sunnier later in the day, in general. Reaching around 23’C – give or take! Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

Not much easier to forecast for Monday either, but generally it looks fairly cloudy with some hazy sunshine at times – showers possible, though at the moment I think they’ll be focused further north-west – I say that with little confidence though. Warm, around 22’C. Rain probable overnight…though timing highly uncertain.

By Tuesday, low pressure has decided to move east at last and is sat pretty much over the UK.

Assuming it rained overnight, then Tuesday will be a day of sunshine and heavy, perhaps thundery showers. Temperatures around 22’C, but very give or take – I wouldn’t rule out 25’C. However, if rain did not arrive on Monday night, then Tuesday is likely wet instead.

Wednesday I actually have more confidence on than the previous 4 days, and it should broadly be a case of some sunny spells, plenty of cloud and a few scattered showers, possibly heavy. Around 22’C.

Thursday currently looks like the next low pressure system will be heading our way – well it is all part of the same low pressure trough that has been sat over north-west Europe for the last week or so, just circulating around itself.

So, Thursday, Friday, probably Saturday, maybe Sunday we’ll see further heavy showers – I think especially so on Friday, perhaps even some general wind and rain. Not especially seasonable, but I wouldn’t write-off next weekend yet – there could be at least some warm sunshine.

A lot of uncertainty on details this time, and not exactly the cheeriest forecast for those hoping for a return to June’s weather – it isn’t happening.

There are suggestions of high pressure trying to build from the south-west the week after, but fairly weak signals at the moment. No particular signals for August as it stands – I think wait and see if we can get out of this low pressure domination first.

Enjoy the hot sunshine whilst you can…if you can!…

Monday 3rd July 2023

A changeable week ahead though becoming warmer towards the weekend.

Thanks to Christel for the photograph.

The general picture to start the week sees low pressure in charge, over Scandinavia, bringing relatively cooler weather – for July, anyway.

Today starts with sunny spells but cloud will quickly bubble up, with a few showers developing and spreading east – more especially during late morning and into early/mid afternoon. Windy, feeling cool yet still just about reaching 20’C. Tending to be more sunshine later in the day. Clear spells at first overnight but cloud thickening after midnight – some bits of rain possible towards dawn. Down to around 13’C.

Tuesday starts cloudy, perhaps with outbreaks of rain. During the morning the rain will develop, become heavy, perhaps occasionally very heavy with a rumble of thunder. Some uncertainty as to when it clears but roughly somewhere between mid-afternoon and early evening, with sunny spells and scattered heavy showers replacing it. Reaching around 18’C – assuming some late sunshine. Reasonably clear skies overnight, though a shower still possible, and fairly chilly – down to around 9’C.

Wednesday will be calmer, sunny spells, fair-weather cloud and a few showers in the breeze. Around a 60% chance of catching one or two showers, and they could be heavy. Reaching around 21’C, feeling warmer. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

By Thursday, the Scandinavian low is actually back to the west of us, having done some unusual spiralling back on itself – and merging with a new incoming low.

However, as these two lows dance together, they’ll stall to our west and allow much warmer air to spread from the south.

So for Thursday, it will be mostly fine – some high-level cloud making it a bit hazy at times, and plenty of general mid-level and fair-weather cloud so not the sunniest day ever, but bright with some sunny spells. Reaching around 20’C, maybe 21’C, and just a small chance of a fairly light shower. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Friday is back to summer. Long spells of sunshine, perhaps hazy at times and temperatures in the range of 25’C to 27’C – feeling hot in the southerly breeze. A warmer night, down to around 15’C with a smallish chance of an overnight shower, possibly thundery.

Saturday is much more uncertain. I’m more tempted by the idea that the warmth hangs on for another day, though with a risk of some heavy, perhaps thundery showers developing later. However, it could instead just be showery/wet and warm, or perhaps hot, sunny and dry. Going with what I feel is the more likely outcome, temperatures should be in the range of 25’C to 28’C.

These potential thundery breakdowns can be a nightmare to forecast 1 day away – let alone 5.

Sunday likely still warm/very warm – perhaps hot though less likely. Rain/showers/thunderstorms likely at some point or points – but totally impossible to give any other guidance right now.

Most likely the low pressure area will gradually move across the UK next week – so a pretty un-summer week is likely. Some warmth possible, but expect plenty of heavy, thundery showers and perhaps general wind and rain.

Gosh, it feels like a Monday morning, doesn’t it?…