Friday 30th June 2023

Low pressure is slowly taking over – our long, hot, sunny days are gone, at least for now – though still some sunny and warm weather mixed in with some showers.

I do say that events can change previous expectations, and this change to somewhat unsettled conditions seems to have been caused by notable plunges of cold air into North America, which has fired up the jetstream.

It shouldn’t last more than two weeks, perhaps only one…but impossible to be sure on.

Thanks to Jo for the photograph.

The general set-up at the moment sees a westerly flow, with low pressure over Iceland – which will slowly head to Scandinavia over the coming few days. It isn’t a fully unsettled picture for us in the south – it just isn’t glorious like much of June was.

Friday starts bright but cloud will quickly thicken as a weather front moves across – bringing some patchy light rain, but fairly minimal amounts. Reaching around 18’C, so much cooler than it has been, and fairly breezy too. Remaining mostly cloudy overnight with bits and pieces of light rain, no lower than 16’C.

Saturday starts cloudy, some bits of light rain possible. The sun will start to appear in the morning, still a shower possible, though the afternoon will see gradually increasing amounts of sunshine and it will be dry. Becoming very warm, we should get to around 24’C, though quite windy. Clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

Sunday sees sunny spells and variable amounts of fair-weather cloud – likely more cloud than sun during the late morning through early afternoon period. Warm, 22’C though feeling less so in the north-westerly wind. Clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

Monday sees more of the same, some sunny spells and quite a bit of fair-weather cloud – overall probably a little more cloud than sunshine, except in the morning. One or two showers possible, more likely late in the day. Around 22’C but still a notable north-westerly wind. A fair chance of some heavy showers in the evening, but dry with clear spells after, down to around 12’C.

By Tuesday low pressure is centred over Scandinavia and we are in a fairly cool flow – though it is July so still warm on the ground.

General conditions sees sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud, some scattered heavy showers, and temperatures around 21’C – and quite windy. Still warm, though it will feel cool in the wind.

Details start to break down from here, though the more likely outcome for Wednesday and Thursday is something broadly similar, with some cloud, some sunny spells and a chance of some showers – the wind becoming lighter and temperatures in a range of 20’C to 23’C.

Not actually that bad really, though there is a chance of a cut-off low from the main system bringing more in the way of general rain and wind.

By Friday and into next weekend, the slightly more likely outcome sees low pressure to our west (and one to our north, and one to our north-east) driving our weather – and it sucks up hotter air from the south, though after 1-3 days brings thundery downpours across.

The second most-likely outcome would be that low pressure over the UK for next weekend, which means rain/showers.

So basically 1-2 (maybe 3) very warm to hot days followed by thundery downpours, is the more likely outcome for Friday and into next weekend.

My thinking remains that the latter half/latter two-thirds of July will often be very warm/hot, but will also run in cycles of hot, then thundery downpours, then fine and warm, then becoming hot…etc, etc.

Overall I still think July will balance out as hotter than normal.

Enjoy your weekend.…

Monday 26th June 2023

Warm but changeable is the theme, as we revert to a more westerly flow.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

So we have a reinvigorated jetstream to deal with, which seems to have been powered by a notable plunge of colder air into North America recently. Mostly, for now, low pressure will be to the north – but close enough to bring some cloud, showers and maybe rain at times. Hence, changeable.

Yet still plenty of warmth around.

Monday starts sunny. Fair-weather cloud will bubble up, and likely there will be some areas of more general cloud at times this afternoon, though still bright, and again more sunshine later in the day. A small chance of a shower. Breezy but warm, 24’C. Fairly clear skies overnight, though cloud thickening somewhat towards dawn, down to around 13’C.

Tuesday sees a weather front crossing, though the rain will stay to our north. For us, mostly cloudy, though some hazy sunshine at times, especially early and late in the day. Perhaps a spot of light rain. Warm and breezy, around 23’C. Staying fairly cloudy overnight, no lower than 16’C so on the warm side.

Wednesday sees another weather front approaching, but ahead of it we’ll see spells of hazy sunshine, though a fair amount of cloud. Quite hot, 27’C seems feasible, with enough hazy sunshine. The weather front will arrive in the evening, bringing some heavy showers, and becomes slow-moving overnight – likely turning into general showery, heavy rain. No lower than around 15’C.

Thursday is somewhat uncertain due to the overnight rain – it could clear by dawn to leave a mostly sunny day, or it may hang around until the afternoon, bringing spells of rain – or somewhere in between. I’d hazard a guess at the rain clearing during the morning, with sunny spells by the afternoon and temperatures around 22’C – but it is very possible that the rain hangs on for longer. Clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.

Friday sees sunny spells in the morning, though quite a lot of cloud likely bubbles up, with some sunny spells for the afternoon. Warm, around 23’C. Cloudy overnight with some showery rain spreading down from the north-west. Down to around 15’C.

By the weekend, we see low pressure pretty close to our north, between Scotland and Iceland.

Saturday will start cloudy, with some bits of rain possible. It will become sunny, with variable amounts of cloud. Warm and breezy, though some uncertainty over how warm – between 22’C and 26’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

Fairly low confidence on details for Sunday, but something broadly in the way of some cloud, some sunshine and a chance of a shower or two. Temperatures between 21’C and 25’C – breezy.

Suggestions that the low pressure may be a bit further south next week, so we could see something more showery but likely still warm/very warm.

I’d be surprised if we don’t reset back into a much warmer/hotter and sunnier pattern for at least the second half of July, perhaps second two-thirds, but things change. The hurricane season is already much busier than normal, the Atlantic sea surface temperatures are exceptionally warm – and we’ve got El Niño developing, so quite a few “wild cards” that could cause changes to the more likely expected patterns.

I still believe that the more likely outcome for the second half/two-thirds of July is for it to be warmer/hotter and sunnier than normal, with some occasional thundery downpours – however, I do have slightly lower confidence than I did.

Overall, it is still reasonably summer-like – warm/very warm, variable amounts of sunshine and a bit of rain. Next update probably on Friday morning.…

Tuesday 20th June 2023

A few showers but plenty of sunshine, and becoming quite hot towards the weekend.

Thanks to me for the photograph. Yes, I was actually in Reading recently! A reminder that if you want to send a photograph then I cannot access them via Facebook messages. You can either e-mail them to or add them as a comment to a Facebook post.

So the general picture sees the jetstream gradually heading north from its extended vacation across the Mediterranean in spring – so from time to time we will have low pressure trying to push towards the UK, which will bring some showers such as we’ve had the last couple of days. But also high pressure will keep trying to build, and there is lots of warmth around.

Today starts with some showery heavy rain, perhaps a rumble of thunder – though by time I write this it will probably have cleared north. Sunny spells will follow from around late morning, though always a fair amount of cloud and a small chance of a heavy shower. Tending to be increasing amounts of sunshine for late afternoon. Very warm, 25’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, a bit of cloud, down to around 14’C.

Wednesday will be fair with sunny spells and varying amounts of fair-weather cloud. A small chance of a shower but more likely you’ll stay dry. Very warm again, 25’C, maybe 26’C. Fairly clear skies overnight though some high cloud spreading up from the south, down to around 14’C.

Thursday starts bright with hazy sunshine. Some fair weather cloud bubbling up, enough for some scattered heavy, perhaps thundery showers – say a 50-60% chance of catching one or two. On the hot side, 28’C or so. Fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 15’C.

Friday sees an attempt at weather fronts to cross the UK, but rain will stay mostly over Ireland and the NW of England/Wales – but we’ll see more in the way of high/mid-level cloud so we are talking hazy sunshine. Temperatures between 26’C and 28’C. Mostly clear skies overnight and a warmer feel, down to around 16’C.

By Saturday we see hotter air moving up from the south, but low pressure to the west strengthening and pushing towards us…or trying to.

Long spells of hot sunshine will be the outcome for Saturday – some high/fair weather cloud possible, but generally pretty glorious. Temperatures roughly between 28’C and 30’C. A fairly warm night likely, down to around 16’C.

I think high pressure hangs on for Sunday, it is the more likely outcome, with rain further north. Assuming so then spells of sunshine, perhaps hazy, and still on the hot side, somewhere between 26’C and 29’C – with a chance of a shower. Not the highest confidence ever on details though. Perhaps fresher overnight.

Working on the basic that the earlier low pressure stays to our north, then next week starts dry with sunny spells once more – though the low pressure should at least introduce somewhat fresher air, with temperatures back into a range of 22’C to 25’C to start next week.

In general for the start of July, I think it will generally be very warm to hot, often sunny, the occasional weak weather front may cross from the north-west to make it fresher (ie back to very warm), occasionally thunderstorms may break out or move north from France. Generally though – summer.

And as July progresses, it should generally be settled and hot.

Not sure when the next forecast will be – I’m away for a few days so this might have to do you until Monday.…

Sunday 18th June 2023 – Thundery Downpour Update

A bit steamy out there this morning – the humidity has certainly ticked up.

Such convective forecasts are difficult for specific areas, even within our small geographical area different places may well have different experiences, but I try anyway.

Heavy downpours should start breaking out from around 11am – potentially as far south as, say Basingstoke, southern M25 kind of latitude and will drift north – though also potentially we may see them develop but maybe it is Oxford/Luton kind of latitude before it pours. That’s roughly the initiation area anyway – the potential for some torrential rain is there, perhaps some lightning, a small chance of hail. But maybe you’ll miss them – I’d say a 50-60% chance of catching a downpour during the 11am to 1pm period, maybe 30% chance after that. I’d be more confident for the midlands and East Anglia.

Still some hazy sunshine, still very warm and humid, around 25’C.

It looks like as the afternoon goes on, the thundery downpours will merge into general rain, but again exactly where that happens is uncertain – again, France, Kent and north England I’m more confident on, but our area may be too far west/south – it pretty much depends on development before. Overall a 70% chance of some general showery rain from late afternoon onwards, possibly heavy/very heavy, but also possibly not!

Dry overnight and down to around 14’C.

Sunny spells tomorrow, some fair-weather cloud, one or two scattered showers though those fading from mid-afternoon, and only a 30% chance anyway. Very warm, around 25’C.

Tuesday does then have a fairly good chance of some heavy/very heavy showery rain spreading north, any time from 3am onwards – timing uncertain. Thundery showers may break out in the afternoon once the sun comes out.

Next full forecast probably on Tuesday morning.

Good luck with the showers today – I’ll be taking an umbrella! The rain radar is your friend in such situations as today – keep an eye on any developments to your south. Or just look south out of your window – if you see cloud towering up – you might be about to get soaked!

Rain radar –…

Friday 16th June 2023

Thundery downpours incoming…but still some sunshine and generally very warm/quite hot.

Thanks to Peter for the photograph.

So the general picture sees the jetstream shifting north, as it usually does during the summer months – however it has been much further south than normal, going through the Mediterranean, so shifting north means shifting towards us, for the time being.

The low pressure to our west has been slowly trundling its way towards the UK, and will continue – interacting with the heat building again over Spain/Portugal, for some potential fun and game.

Today remains dry with long spells of sunshine. Some cloud will bubble up in the afternoon, but still with plenty of sunshine. Quite hot, 27’C, maybe a tad more. High cloud spreading across in the evening to make the sunshine hazy, down to around 14’C overnight.

Saturday morning starts fairly cloudy though bright at times – a small cluster of heavy showers looks like they will cross during the morning, you might get some rain, you might not. The afternoon looks brighter with spells of hazy sunshine – I cannot rule out a shower but most likely it will be dry. Only very warm, 24’C, maybe 25’C. Quite a lot of high/mid-level cloud overnight which will stop temperatures dropping much, down to around 16’C so feeling quite warm. Again a small chance of a shower.

Details a bit hazy for Sunday, but generally quite cloudy though with some hazy sunshine at times. The potential in the morning to import some heavy showers from France, perhaps thundery – though more likely we don’t. During the afternoon, heavy, possibly thundery downpours should break out more widely – more likely you get some heavy downpours, than not, but again a chance of escaping them and staying dry. On the flip side, a chance of torrential downpours and localised flooding. 26’C and feeling pretty humid too. Fairly clear skies overnight, once any thundery downpours clear, down to around 15’C.

By Monday we see low pressure ever closer – now to the west of Ireland but struggling to get much further east.

Details uncertain for Monday, certainly a chance of some thundery showers developing, say maybe a 30% chance, but otherwise some sunny spells, some cloud. Temperatures somewhere between 25’C and 27’C and feeling humid. Probably clear spells overnight, though I cannot rule out importing a shower, down to around 14’C.

Details again uncertain for Tuesday. The more likely outcome sees further very warm sunny spells, with some scattered thundery downpours developing – say around a 40% chance of catching one or two. However, there is a small chance of some general thundery rain spreading up from France. Temperatures roughly between 24’C and 27’C and fairly humid.

By Wednesday, our low pressure gives up and heads north towards Iceland, still a chance of a shower but more in the way of sunny spells – some cloud bubbling up. Again very warm and probably somewhat humid, between 24’C and 27’C.

The more likely outcome for Thursday sees good spells of sunshine, and some cloud. I cannot rule out a shower – with low pressure over the continent now, but it should be too far away. Still very warm/quite hot, 25’C to 27’C more likely.

By Friday and into the weekend, we should see high pressure building over the UK once more, and in a favourable position for it to get hot once more. Generally it should be fairly sunny with temperatures in the 28’C to 32’C range.

However – this isn’t certain, just the more likely outcome as it stands. With the jetstream shifting north there is certainly chance of the phasing of low pressure systems being unfavourable to settled conditions, and could bring cloud and rain instead, though more likely it stays to our north-west.

Our long hot summer will continue…every sign that July will be hotter, drier and sunnier than normal too. If August plays ball, it could be the hottest summer ever recorded overall. We shall see.

We’ve already broken 3 date records this June – and for the first time we recorded over 30’C on 13th June – previously the only date in summer months where the UK hadn’t recorded a 30’C+ temperature.

Right, I best go do some work. With a hangover. Oops. Have a good weekend.…

Tuesday 13th June 2023

Settling down and staying hot, after an eventful few days…can confirm my jealousy from my location in NW London as I missed most of the fun…though did see some lightning in the distance yesterday.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

So the general picture sees high pressure loosely in control – low pressure far to our west towards North America, though it is slowly heading our way.

Today sees long spells of sunshine, little fair-weather cloud bubbling up in the afternoon with just a very small chance of a non-heavy shower. Hot, 28’C, maybe 29’C in an easterly breeze. Clear skies overnight and a fresher night, down to around 12’C.

Wednesday sees long spells of sunshine. A bit of fair-weather cloud bubbling up in the afternoon, and reaching 28’C, maybe 29’C in an easterly breeze. A bit of high-level cloud overnight but otherwise clear, down to around 13’C.

Thursday is mostly sunny but there will be some high cloud in the morning, perhaps making it a tad hazy, and a bit more fair-weather cloud in general – a very small chance of an afternoon shower, say 5% chance. Still hot, around 28’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

Friday sees plenty more sunshine, though a bit more in the way of fair-weather cloud in the afternoon bubbling up, with a 5% chance of a shower – they should be further west than us. Still quite hot, 26’C, maybe 27’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

By Saturday that low pressure I mentioned is closer – still some uncertainty as to whether it actually ever gets to the UK, it could very easily stall to our west, or it could head south to France/Spain – though as it stands the more likely outcome is it does bring some rain/showers at some point.

Exact conditions for Saturday will depend on exactly where the low pressure is, but most likely it will remain hot and sunny, though perhaps somewhat more on the hazy side. Reaching around 27’C.

Sunday is uncertain. The low pressure should be closer so the chance of some rain increases – but also the chance of it being hotter increases too. So roughly a 50/50 split between either hot and sunny (well hazy sunshine probably) or very warm, humid and wet, possibly very wet.

Until I get a handle on what the low pressure is going to do, there is no point in attempting details for next week – but overall I’d expect more very warm/hot weather, but also more in the way of showers, possible thundery, probably heavy – and less in the way of sunshine, though still reasonable amounts.

Should the low pressure stall to our west, we may find a brief short very hot spell early next week, say up to 35’C. Not especially likely, but around a 20% chance.

Next forecast should be on Friday morning.…

Friday 9th June 2023

A hot forecast, with sunshine and some scattered thundery downpours.

Thanks to Jessica for the photograph.

So the general picture sees the high pressure that we stuck to the north-west of Ireland, controlling our weather for the last few weeks whilst barely moving, having shifting to the north-east – with low pressure close to our south-west. This pulls the wind direction to the south-east – a hot source.

Early cloud will lift to leave long spells of sunshine. A bit of fair weather cloud this afternoon, and some high cloud as the day goes on, but broadly glorious. Just a very small chance of a shower mid-afternoon, but if any develop they should be further west of Berkshire. Quite hot, 26’C should be reached. Perfect for my first visit to Reading this year! Mostly clear skies overnight, some high cloud, and a warmer night – getting down to around 14’C.

Saturday will generally be hot and fairly sunny, albeit hazy at times. Some cloud will bubble up, and there will be a few scattered thundery downpours – at the moment I rate the chance around 30% of catching one or two. More likely you stay dry, perhaps you get a shower that hasn’t developed fully yet – but then a few places across the country will catch torrential thundery downpours, with large-ish hail, gusty winds, localised flooding and/or frequent lightning all possible. 30’C should be reached, maybe a tad more, and also somewhat humid. Quite a lot of high/mid-level cloud overnight, a small chance of a shower, and warm, no lower than 17’C.

Sunday sees quite a lot of high/mid-level cloud around, though there will be sunny spells – enough to trigger some more thundery downpours in places. A higher chance, say 40-50% chance of catching one or two, some of them may be torrential with a chance of large-ish hail, gusty winds, torrential downpours localised flooding and/or frequent lightning in the most potent of them. Of course, a fair chance that you miss them all, 50-60% chance, or just get a bit of a shower. Slightly less hot, 28’C or so, maybe a tad more. Variable cloud overnight, another fairly warm night, no lower than around 16’C.

Monday starts sunny, perhaps some low cloud to clear but if there is it will clear quickly. Some cloud will bubble up and again scattered thundery downpours break out. I think the focus will be further west on Monday, but certainly still a 30% chance here, and catch a potent one and the usual risks will be there – large-ish hail, gusty winds, torrential downpours localised flooding and/or frequent lightning, though less likely than Saturday/Sunday. Hot and fairly humid, between 28’C and 30’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 15’C.

For Tuesday, the shower risk recedes and we are left with hot sunshine. Some cloud bubbling up but mostly sunny, between 28’C and 30’C. A light breeze and it should be less humid. Clear skies overnight and a fresher feel, 13’C.

By Wednesday we are kind of back to an easterly, though a light breeze – high pressure not the strongest – low pressure to our south.

Long spells of sunshine, just a bit of cloud. Temperatures between 26’C and 28’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

Very similar on Thursday, good spells of sunshine, a bit of cloud, temperatures between 26’C and 28’C.

Friday into next weekend most likely staying fairly sunny, quite hot though chances of a thundery downpour increasing again.

Most likely it stays very warm/quite hot for the foreseeable – though chances of thundery downpours on some days. You’ve seen my summer forecast anyway.

Have a good weekend!…

Summer Weather Forecast 2023

Welcome to my Summer Weather Forecast 2023. I think you’ll like it.

Some of this forecast will be wrong. That is the case for all seasonal forecasts (unless a forecaster gets lucky). We can have some confidence on general trends, but picking out short-term features or getting the timing right of changes, becomes impossible after a couple of weeks. And then the general trends can change – what you think was likely, then gets disturbed by a major event somewhere in the world, which then adjusts the jetstream, etc, etc.

But hopefully I can give a reasonable guide.

I’m fairly happy with my spring forecast. It was cold to start March, and wet to end as I thought – though wetter than I expected. April I predicted average temperatures, slightly above average rainfall and slightly below average sunshine – which was broadly the case. May I thought we’d be in an easterly flow, which did dominate and still does into June, but low pressure was further south than I expected – I had expected it to be a bit closer and hence warmer with showers for the latter half.

Thanks to everyone that sent a photograph in – my choice is Dave’s with a gloriously sunny sky, though with hints of showers to come.

Background Signals

There isn’t really a lot to talk about, though the key factor is extreme temperatures don’t have the same base as they did last year, as the soil moisture profile is higher over Europe, which should just temper the possibility of extreme temperatures.

However, on the flip side, sea surface temperatures are higher, if not much higher, across much of the eastern Atlantic, from Spain/Portugal, all the way through to Ireland, which I’d suggest makes hot weather a little more likely.

It is contested, but personally I believe that winter sudden stratospheric warming events have an imprint into summer months, especially late season SSWs, like we had, and increase the propensity of blocking highs to our north (exactly as has happened in recent weeks). This doesn’t always lead to glorious summer weather for us (2021 for example) but can lead to drier, summer and warmer/hotter weather, depending on exactly where high pressure situates.

I struggle a bit to understand the atmospheric angular momentum theory, but if I understand correctly, the current positive and predicted strongly positive phase, should lead to high pressure to our east, low to our west – a hot but sometimes thundery set-up, down the line in future weeks. I stress that I don’t really understand this that well though.

The other factor is the developing El Niño, which hasn’t occurred yet, but is likely to be confirmed during the summer. It doesn’t have as much impact here as elsewhere in the world (at least as far as we know), but maybe we can infer a slightly greater chance of showers later in the season, at a push. But even that, depends on how strong El Niño becomes, and we don’t know.

All in all, background signals seem to point more to a hotter summer than normal. Though I think long-term models and predicted pressure patterns are more important for this season…and they also point to hotter than normal weather.

An attempt at some details:


High pressure dominates the start of June, some cooler and cloudy mornings, but generally sunny and warm afternoons. This changes around 10th June to a more south-easterly flow, with temperatures on the up, very warm or quite hot, but also some thundery downpours in the mix – potentially quite severe in places, but also the potential to miss everything and just enjoy varying amounts of quite hot sunshine.

After mid-month, temperatures generally staying very warm – a few less warm days possible, some quite days also possible, but broadly very warm, sunny spells – a few days likely featuring some heavy, thundery showers, perhaps even a day or two of heavy, thundery rain spreading up from the south, but overall plenty of very pleasant weather is the more likely general outcome.

Overall I expect a warmer than average month and sunnier than normal average. Low confidence on rainfall totals, as it will depend on if you catch any particularly torrential downpours, so perhaps best to suggest more dry days than average.

Confidence levels around 80% – main uncertainty is over whether the mid-month thundery showers turn into a more widespread low pressure system.


July looks to see high pressure close to our east or north as the dominant pressure pattern, which means plenty of hot, sunny weather is likely.

Perhaps during the first part of the month, we see high pressure more centred to the north/north-east, which will lead to it generally being very warm/quite hot, though with occasional thundery downpours for us in the south – there is a signal for a wetter than normal summer over Spain/France, so I’d expect we’ll import thunderstorms or at least some instability on occasion from continent.

During the middle and second half of the month is when the hottest part of the summer is more likely, with high pressure more likely to be to our east – low to our west, and depending on where the low is, those Iberian heat-pump scenarios similar to last year (and most summers but last year was notably so) will be more likely – so short very hot spells followed by short unsettled, possibly thundery spells, followed by fine weather – is the more likely general pattern.

Generally the signal for rainfall is higher in the south of the UK than the north, so those who like their holidays in Scotland may approve this year.

Overall for July, I expect above-average temperatures, slightly above-average sunshine and around the average amount of days with rain falling – with rainfall totals dependent on how intense any downpours in your local area are.

Confidence level 75%. I wouldn’t rule out it being the hottest July ever overall – but without the hottest day being recorded. 37’C or so with the “perfect” set-up seems plausible, but 40’C like last year seems too much of a stretch…as it stands.


Weaker signals for August, but overall I think the balance for the first half of the month sees more very warm/hot sunny days, though likely some days in the warm with showers kind of theme – the hotter days may also have some thundery downpours too.

Low pressure may be a bit closer to our south-west for the latter month, this bringing more southerly flows – so some hot and humid days, but also some wet days, or at least some thundery downpours. Pretty low confidence though.

Overall for August, I expect above-average temperatures, around average or slightly-below average sunshine, and slightly above-average rainfall.

Confidence level 40%.

Summary And Autumn Thoughts

So, a hot summer but with an increased chance of thunderstorms, I think would be the headline.

Of course, I could be totally wrong. And things change unexpectedly. We shall see.

An early look at autumn currently suggests a warmer but wetter than normal September, and a warmer and drier than normal October/November.

No point in thinking about winter until we know how strong El Niño will be, as that can have an effect on our winter.

Enjoy your summer!…

Tuesday 6th June 2023

A few more dry days, but becoming warmer, more humid with some thundery showers by the weekend. Which has long been in the forecast!

Apologies for no summer forecast yet, I did start writing it on Sunday but then decided to enjoy the sunshine, and didn’t have the brain to finish it later…and yesterday was a bit of a nightmare of a day. And now I need to do the regular forecast! Tomorrow, hopefully, if not tonight.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

So the general picture sees high pressure pretty much where it has been for the last few weeks, but now we have low pressure over The Azores, which will try to head our way later this week, and move the wind direction from the east to something south-easterly (ish) – enough to make quite a difference.

For now, cloud. It will be stubborn today. There will be sunny spells in the afternoon, though always some cloud around. Temperatures between 18’C and 20’C depending on sunshine amounts, with the easterly breeze continuing. Cloud thickens again tonight, no lower than 9’C.

Wednesday starts cloudy but it will clear much quicker, by around mid-morning, give or take. Perhaps some fair-weather cloud around but otherwise good spells of warm sunshine, 22’C, maybe a tad more. We’ll still have the easterly/north-easterly breeze though. Cloud spreading across again overnight, down to around 9’C.

Early cloud clears quickly on Thursday to long spells of sunshine. A bit of fair-weather and some high cloud but generally pretty glorious. Around 23’C, maybe a little more. Still the breeze. Patchy cloud spreading from the east overnight, some high cloud also moving in from the south-west – around 11’C.

Friday sees some high cloud at times, so sometimes on the hazy side but generally it will be mostly sunny. We’ll still have a breeze, more notable if anything but now the source is Turkey rather than Sweden (broadly speaking), so it will be very warm, reaching between 24’C and 26’C, and perhaps somewhat humid. Quite cloudy overnight – a chance of a shower if any remnants of showers over France are still in tact. Around 14’C.

By Saturday the Azores low pressure is a bit closer to us, allowing some instability. And some uncertainty.

Details definitely sketchy for Saturday but spells of very warm but likely hazy sunshine, with chances of showers – perhaps early morning and then again later in the afternoon the main chances, with afternoon showers potentially torrential and thundery. However, I stress the uncertainty, not everywhere will see the showers and some places will likely stay dry (or mostly so) with very warm/hot hazy sunshine at times. Temperatures will depend on how much sunshine you get, and could be anywhere between 22’C and 30’C, with somewhere in the middle more likely. Likely on the humid side also, though a lighter breeze at last. It should be dry overnight, some cloud and a warmish night, down to around 15’C.

Sunday again details a bit uncertainty, but broadly plenty of hazy sunshine, variable amounts of fair-weather cloud – though it will likely bubble up in the afternoon with some thundery downpours in places. You may stay dry – you may get an ordinary shower, you may get a torrential downpour with frequent lightning, large-ish hail and gusty winds. Very warm, perhaps quite hot, somewhere between 25’C and 28’C more likely. These scattered thundery downpours continue in the evening, fade overnight, and a fairly warm night, down to around 16’C.

Next week starts quite hot, with sunny spells (probably hazy quite often) and scattered thundery downpours. Tricky to put details on where/when downpours most likely, as it will tend to change from day to day. Temperatures broadly in the 25’C to 30’C range, again a bit of variation from day to day.

Next full forecast should be Friday morning, I’ll try to do the summer forecast tomorrow (maybe tonight).…

Friday 2nd June 2023

Did someone order warm sunshine? For the weekend anyway, and still settled next week.

Thanks to Eve for the photograph.

Only very subtle changes in the weather pattern from the last forecast, or the one before that – high pressure still centred to the north-west of Ireland, but our easterly breeze becoming more north-easterly – so there is more land for the overnight cloud to travel over before it reaches us, and also the source, Scandinavia, is warming up.

Which is me basically saying more warmth and sunshine just in time for the weekend!

Friday starts cloudy – I’m sure you are used to it by now. The sun will break through, likely in the morning, it should be mostly sunny by lunchtime, give or take. And increasing amounts of sunshine as the afternoon goes on. Still breezy at times, 19’C. Some cloud overnight, down to around 8’C.

Saturday sees early low cloud clearing fairly quickly to good spells of sunshine. Some high cloud at times, likely some fair-weather cloud, but a very pleasant day overall. Warm, though still breezy, 22’C seems realistic, give or take. Clear spells for a while overnight, some cloud possible later, towards dawn. Down to around 8’C.

Sunday sees any low cloud at first quickly lift to leave long spells of sunshine. Some fair-weather cloud at times, particularly later in the afternoon. Warm, around 22’C, still quite breezy. Becoming cloudy overnight, 9’C.

Monday starts cloudy and it likely takes longer to clear this time. The afternoon should see good spells of sunshine, once the sun breaks through. Around 20’C, still a breeze. Cloud spreads across again overnight, down to around 9’C.

Tuesday again starts cloudy – there is again more of an easterly component to the flow, rather than the north-easterly from the weekend, and I think the cloud will hang around longer. The sun should break through, maybe by late morning, maybe early afternoon, and it will be warm and sunny once it does. Reaching somewhere between 18’C and 22’C, depending on how quick the sun comes out. Cloud spreading across overnight again, down to around 10’C.

Wednesday starts cloudy – there is a greater risk of it staying cloudy for all or most of the day, though fairly low confidence. If it does then temperatures around 15’C, but if the sun burns the cloud back then we’ll reach somewhere between 18’C and 22’C. Cloud spreading back across overnight again!

Thursday probably quite similar – a cloudy start, sun probably breaking through at some point to bring sunny skies. Temperatures most likely somewhere between 18’C and 22’C.

A possible change for Friday and into the weekend, though low confidence, sees a bit more of a south-easterly flow, which means getting rid of this overnight/morning cloud and importing more warmth – temperatures between 22’C and 27’C. However, such a change will also bring a small chance of thundery downpours developing.

It may instead stay broadly similar to what it has been, for Friday and into next weekend. I guess 60/40 kind of percentage chances of these two broad themes.

Enjoy the sunshine! Hopefully I’ll get time to do the summer forecast this weekend.…