Summer Photograph Request

I’ve just realised that it is the first day of summer tomorrow…which means I better do my summer forecast…which means I need a photograph…please.

Usual rules:

  1. Must have weather. Must have summer weather – remember there is more than one type of weather in summer! I choose to fit the forecast.
  2. Must be the local area.
  3. Can be from any year, doesn’t need to be recent.
  4. Must be landscape-orientated, ie the width longer than the height. I know plenty of people ignore this, which is totally fine, crack on! But I only use landscape-orientated images.

No charity donation this quarter, I’m afraid, as my finances are a temporarily off-balance. Hopefully will revert next quarter.

Whoever’s photograph I choose will adorn the forecast and also be the cover photograph on Facebook for the next 3 months.

Please add them to the Facebook post or e-mail them. I cannot currently use them via Facebook messages.

The summer forecast will be issued…erm…Friday or Saturday, I guess.…

Monday 29th May 2023

High pressure remains in control – and probably stays this way for at least 10 days. Though this week we’ll have to battle with cloud from the North Sea at times. Which can be stubborn to clear.

No photograph this week…well…not from any of you as I still cannot access the Facebook message ones. So you’ll have to cope with my photograph of London instead.

So high pressure is currently centred just to the north-west of Ireland, which means an easterly flow for us – it won’t shift much during the week, but the subtleties of positioning will allow for more cloud at times, and lower temperatures on some days.

This morning sees some patches of low level cloud but also some sunny spells. This cloud tends to clear for the afternoon but also the sun will become hazier as high cloud spreads down. The easterly wind will make it feel cooler, but we should reach around 18’C. Some clear spells overnight though a tendency for more cloud later in the night, down to around 9’C.

Tuesday sees a battle between low cloud spilling in from the North Sea and the sun trying to burn it back – fairly cloudy to start but the sun should win out for much of the day, before the cloud returns for late afternoon/evening. There is a risk that the cloud doesn’t clear, but more likely it does. Reaching around 19’C, assuming cloud clears, though still with the easterly wind. Cloudy overnight, there might even be a spot of drizzle. Down to around 9’C.

Wednesday starts cloudy and dull. The sun should break up the cloud at least somewhat in the afternoon though uncertain as to the extent. Still quite windy though not as cool a source as Monday, temperatures between 17’C and 21’C, depending on sunshine amounts. Cloud spreading across overnight again, down to around 9’C.

Thursday likely starts cloudy and dull. The cloud should break up a little easier than it did on Wednesday, to leave good sunny spells – though again a small chance it sticks around all or most of the day. Most likely there will be good sunny spells, and we’ll reach around 22’C. Low cloud spreads back again overnight, 10’C.

Friday currently looks more of a struggle to clear the cloud – likely on the cloudier side of the scale, though some sunny spells possible in the afternoon. Assuming so, then cooler, around 17’C.

Very little change in the overall pattern by the weekend – high pressure still in the same place and we’ll still be struggling with the easterly breeze.

Not especially high confidence on details for Saturday and Sunday – certainly dry, a risk of cloud, especially in the mornings, but there should be some sunshine at times in the afternoons. Temperatures between 18’C and 21’C.

Next week very likely remains settled and dry, at least at first – there is a small chance of thundery showers moving up from the south later next week or next weekend, but only a small chance as it stands.

Sunshine amounts and temperatures will depend on positioning of high pressure, probably at least fairly warm, assuming no cloud.…

Thursday 25th May 2023

Often warm and often sunny. Though not always…

Back to a Thursday night update as I have a day out tomorrow…day out in an office. Yikes.

Thanks to Pauline for the photograph – still not able to access via Facebook messages, so e-mail only if you want to send them. Though if you attach them to the Facebook post, I assume that will work too.

Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 7’C.

The general picture for Friday, and the coming days sees high pressure firmly in control, currently centred just to the west of Ireland, stretching across the UK. Low pressure much further south over Spain/Portugal and some other areas of Europe.

Sunny spells all day on Friday, likely some cloud bubbles up through the lunchtime period, but still sufficient sunny spells – with long spells of sunshine as the afternoon goes on. Reaching around 19’C, though the easterly breeze will take the edge off, especially later in the afternoon. Clear skies overnight, down to around 7’C.

Saturday may have a few patches of cloud at first, but this will clear to leave long spells of sunshine. Warm, 21’C with a light easterly breeze. Finally I will have a beer in my garden! Clear spells at first overnight, though some high/mid level cloud spilling down from the north later. Down to around 9’C.

Sunday isn’t so good – some spells of hazy sunshine at first but quite a lot of cloud bubbling up to leave the afternoon fairly cloud. Still some sunny spells, but not too much – I wouldn’t rule out a light shower. Around 18’C, with a notable easterly breeze. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

Bank Holiday Monday will see some cloud at times, more so in the morning with increasing amounts of sunshine as the afternoon goes on – and still some sunshine, albeit maybe hazy, in the morning. The easterly breeze more of a wind by now, and knocking temperatures back – say 16’C to 18’C. Fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

Tuesday probably sees more sunshine, but there will be a risk of cloud moving in from the North Sea – uncertain at this stage. Temperatures in the range of 16’C to 20’C. Still breezy, verging on windy.

High pressure is still in a pretty similar area for Wednesday.

Again uncertainty in terms of cloud amounts, but overall more likely on the sunnier side of the spectrum. Likely warmer too, the easterly breeze still there but a warmer source is likely. Reaching between 19’C and 22’C, depending on sunshine amounts.

Thursday again has uncertainty on cloud amounts, but more likely on the sunnier side of the spectrum – perhaps long spells of sunshine the more likely outcome. Temperatures again more likely on the warm side, between 20’C and 23’C. Not bad for the first official day of summer!

Friday, same story – a risk of cloud but more likely on the sunnier side of the spectrum, and more likely to be warm, say between 20’C and 24’C.

Should any of these days actually be mostly cloudy, then temperatures would be much lower – but I’m hopeful for sunshine to outweigh cloud.

Most likely next weekend is very similar – a risk of cloud depending on exact positioning of the high pressure, but more likely at least fairly sunny, and more likely at least fairly warm, perhaps very warm.

Though by this point a chance of importing a heavy, thundery shower, if low pressure to our south edges far enough north. Only a chance, but worth bearing in mind.

Likely high pressure dominates during much of June, at least for central/northern Britain – at times low pressure will edge close enough for some heavy/thundery showers for those of us in the south, though next weekend is the very earliest that is feasible – it may not be until the weekend after.

Also some hints of a cooler north-easterly flow being possible after next weekend, but that is a very long way off, and just a hint.

Enjoy the bank holiday weekend. Do we really have to wait until August for the next one?…

Tuesday 23rd May 2023

High pressure is in control which means fine, dry and fairly warm weather. Some variation on cloud amounts though.

No photograph as Facebook still won’t let me access anything other than a low resolution copy. Meh.

The general picture sees high pressure to our west, which will slowly move east over the UK as the week goes on – low pressure to our south over Europe.

Bright with hazy sunshine during the morning, somewhat more in the way of cloud this afternoon but still spells of hazy sunshine. 18’C, maybe 19’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

Wednesday looks sunnier – still some high cloud in the morning but that will clear, and likely some general cloud bubbling up at times in the afternoon, but overall a pleasant and warm day. Probably our warmest day of the year so far, 21’C, maybe 22’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

Thursday starts sunny. Some cloud will bubble up and likely there will be more cloud than sunshine during the afternoon – an easterly breeze will take the edge off temperatures but still reaching around 19’C. Some clear spells and some cloud overnight, down to around 10’C.

Friday has a risk of more cloud due to the flow coming from the North Sea – some uncertainty but more likely more cloud than sunshine overall. Temperatures somewhere between 15’C and 18’C more likely – I can neither rule out a fully overcast day and 12’C or a much sunnier day and 20’C. Clear skies and a little chilly overnight, down to around 6’C.

By Saturday high pressure is pretty much sat over the UK – or at least extended across the UK, which should reduce the worst annoyances of the easterly flow.

More likely we see good spells of sunshine with just a bit of cloud at times. Temperatures somewhere in the range of 17’C to 20’C. Though worth noting that subtle shifts in the high pressure positioning could still lead to something cloudier and cooler, or still sunny but warmer. Clear skies most likely overnight, down to around 6’C.

A hint of uncertainty for Sunday but the more likely outcome sees good spells of sunshine and temperatures warmer, say 19’C to 23’C. There is a small chance that a band of cloud could sink south, or a small chance that low pressure to the south moves close enough to trigger an afternoon shower – but both are around a 10% and 5% chance respectively. Most likely a very pleasant day.

Bank Holiday Monday most likely remains similar to Sunday, though the risk of some cloud spilling down from the north is now around 20%, and the shower risk from the south remains around 5’C. Otherwise plenty of warm sunshine. Around 19’C to 21’C more likely.

High pressure should remain on the scene next week, probably even the week after, though there will be a risk of cloudier and cooler weather from the east or north at times – though this should overall be outweighed by pleasantly sunny and warm days.

Towards the middle of June, thundery showers perhaps more likely to spread up from France/Spain – but bear in mind a couple of weeks ago I thought that would have been happening now, maybe this theme continues to be delayed – or just doesn’t happen. A warmer and sunnier June than normal looks more likely – drier too unless we get any notable downpours.

Enjoy! I will.…

Friday 19th May 2023

Gradually the weather is improving – some sunshine, some relative warmth – but also some cloud and some showers in the forecast too.

Thanks to Eve for the photograph, and for those e-mailing them to whilst Facebook is being a pain. And maybe I fixed the mailing list, for those subscribed through the website – it works for me, so if it works for you please give me a sign!

Starting with the general picture which sees high pressure to the east, low pressure over Europe to the south/south-east which will just take the edge off things in south-east England this weekend. Though the main story is high pressure to the west/south-west, which will have more influence as next week goes on.

Today we are dealing with a weak weather front which will bring a lot of mid-level cloud, though bright with some hazy sunshine. Light showers possible in the morning, a few scattered heavy showers in the afternoon – though more likely the further west you go, and perhaps we escape them here. More sunshine later in the afternoon and into the evening. Temperatures nothing amazing, 16’C, maybe 17’C. Some clear spells overnight, some cloud at times, down to around 6’C.

Some cloud possible at first on Saturday but it will clear away swiftly (yeah I said this last week), to leave good spells of sunshine. Again some cloud bubbling up through lunchtime and early afternoon – a small chance of a shower, but still sunny spells – and more sunshine as the afternoon goes on. Quite warm, 18’C, maybe 19’C. Mostly clear skies, down to around 6’C.

Sunday should start sunny, but it looks like low cloud will develop to bring a mostly cloudy day once it sets in. However, there is a little bit of uncertainty on this, I wouldn’t rule out some sunshine. Temperatures around 17’C, though with a bit of sunshine then 20’C possible. Quite a bit of cloud overnight, around 8’C.

Monday sees the continental low pressure edge closer – as close as it will get, but mostly it should be fairly sunny, with some cloud at times, and just a small chance of a shower. A little uncertainty – perhaps it is cloudier, just depends on the exact positioning of the low pressure. On the warm side, 18’C to 20’C, perhaps a little more. Dry overnight, though cloud amounts uncertain, around 9’C.

By Tuesday, we start to see the Azores High nudge in from the west.

Likely quite a lot of cloud around, but some sunny spells particularly early and late in the day. Around 18’C, give or take – if sunnier, then 20’C or more possible.

Wednesday again sees quite a bit of cloud bubbling up, but sunny early and late in the day, and probably overall a bit less cloud than Tuesday. 18’C to 20’C.

Thursday likely sees high pressure centred a bit closer to the UK, so hopefully more in the way of sunshine, but likely still cloud at times. Temperatures more likely in the range of 17’C to 20’C.

More of the same for Friday, uncertain on cloud amounts, but dry and settled, temperatures in the range of 16’C to 20’C depending on cloud amounts – with anything from mostly cloudy to mostly sunny being possible at this stage.

The bank holiday weekend most likely will be dry and settled. Temperatures will depend on sunshine amounts, which will depend on the exact position of the high pressure system, which should be centred roughly over central/northern parts of the UK, maybe a bit to the east, maybe a bit to the west.

Such a set-up can lead to cooler and cloudy days, but more likely we’ll see a mostly warm and mostly sunny bank holiday weekend. You can be hopeful, for sure. There is a small chance of very warm – but that would also come with a chance of an afternoon downpour.

It is far enough away for things to change, but I have higher confidence than I usually would this far away.

Likewise high pressure should be in control going into June, but will tend to shift north for a while – allowing showers to push up from the south, perhaps thundery.

I still expect June to average out warmer, drier and sunnier than normal – but the shower risk I previously forecasted for the latter part of May, now looks more likely for the first half of June – and then more likely it settles down, with an increasing chance of very warm/hot spells as June goes on.

It almost feels like I’m forecasting some summer!…

Tuesday 16th May 2023

Well, after the most disappointing Saturday, I can offer you something brighter, drier and sometimes sunnier this week – though still not perfect, some showers, some cloud and not especially warm.

No photograph as Facebook isn’t allowing me to view them – feel free to e-mail me photographs to in the meantime – who knows how long it will be broken for. I’m sure Facebook are too busy building the Metaverse, if that is still a thing.

The general pattern sees high pressure building from the west, with low pressure to our east and a light northerly-ish flow.

Tuesday starts sunny. Cloud will bubble up and it will be mostly cloudy from around lunchtime – with some more sunny spells again later in the day. A small chance of a light/moderate shower, but most places staying dry. 16’C, maybe a 17’C. Some clear spells overnight, some cloud, down to around 6’C.

Wednesday starts with hazy sunshine but cloud will quickly bubble up and showers will break out fairly widely – nothing too heavy though. Showers tending to fade in the afternoon with more spells of hazy sunshine. 16’C, maybe 17’C. A lot of high/mid level cloud overnight, some clear spells, down to around 6’C.

Thursday sees a bit of a mixture of cloud types/amounts, some high/mid level cloud at times making it hazy, some fair weather cloud developing, but also some decent spells of sunshine. A small chance of a light/moderate shower in the afternoon, and reaching around 18’C, give or take. Becoming cloudier overnight as a weak weather front develops, some showers possible as the night goes on. Around 11’C.

Friday is a little uncertain on details – high pressure only loosely in charge with this weak feature that developed overnight bringing showers – but the extent is uncertain. So broadly, some sunny spells, some cloud – and probably some showers, which could be heavy – though uncertain as to where in England the focus will be. Temperatures somewhere between 15’C and 18’C, depending on sunshine amounts. A mixture of cloud and clear spells overnight, down to around 8’C – though could be a few degrees either side.

By Saturday, we have a large area of high pressure to the west of the UK stretching across northern UK, and another large area over Scandinavia. However there is low pressure over continental Europe, and this will stop the weather in south-east England being as nice as it could.

Saturday itself, more likely sees sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud, with temperatures more likely between 16’C and 18’C. A chance of an afternoon shower and likely becoming breezy later in the day. Probably clear skies overnight, down to around 6’C.

For Sunday I have much lower confidence on details – I think low pressure won’t be close enough for much of an influence, but it should bring some cloud at times, and maybe a shower – with some sunny spells still possible. I wouldn’t rule out something sunnier or indeed cloudy and showery, at this stage. Temperatures again in the range of 16’C to 18’C, maybe a tad more. Likely breezy.

Certainty potential for the coming weekend to be a bit sunnier and warmer than this forecast, but also to be cloudier and cooler – as normal, my forecast is the more likely outcome as it stands.

Next week may see that low pressure edge close enough for some cloud and showers on Monday/Tuesday, though highly uncertain.

If anything, a greater signal for high pressure to build across from Tuesday onwards.

I still think the general trend towards the end of May sees high pressure to the north of the UK, low pressure to the south of the UK – so an easterly flow, but hopefully warmer, with some sunshine – and chances of heavy, thundery downpours developing, depending on exact positioning of pressure systems. Though an easterly can still risk cooler, dull days – as we saw on Saturday gone.…

Friday 12th May 2023

A fairly pleasant weekend ahead, with some sunshine and some warmth. Not so, either side of the weekend.

Thanks to Matthew for the photograph – I did have a few stunning storm cloud photographs sent to me, but will wait for the showers to return (they will) before using them – plus Facebook isn’t playing ball and letting me download them for some reason.

So we’ve changed to an easterly flow, with low pressure fairly close to our south driving cloud our way for today.

So, cloudy. A band of rain will push west for a couple of hours from roughly late morning, though not likely amounting to much rain. A little sunshine possible at times in the morning and late afternoon. Cooler in the breeze, 13’C. Staying cloudy overnight, a small chance of a brief shower in the evening, otherwise dry, down to around 9’C.

Saturday starts cloudy, but it will break up during the morning to leave a pleasant, mostly sunny day with just a bit of fair-weather cloud. Fairly warm though the breeze taking the edge off, reaching around 19’C. Clear spells overnight, at least to start, but some patches of mist/fog/low cloud developing later in the night. Down to around 6’C.

Sunday starts cloudy for most, perhaps a few patches of mist/fog if you are up early enough. This all lifts to spells of sunshine, though more in the way of high cloud than on Saturday, which will gradually make things hazier. One or two scattered showers possible by late afternoon, as a weather front encroaches from the north-west. Fairly warm, 20’C. Mostly cloudy overnight with bits and pieces of showery rain – no lower than around 10’C.

All change for Monday as the overnight weather front brings in a cooler northerly flow.

Fairly cloudy with showers or longer spells of rain all day. A bit of brightness possible at times, and temperatures somewhere between 11’C and 14’C, depending on how much brightness, though feeling cool in the northerly breeze. Uncertain overnight, though more likely dry or mostly so, and possibly chilly.

Tuesday is more likely dry and on the cloudier side of the spectrum, though whether that means dull and cloudy all day, or fairly cloudy with some sunshine is unknown. Temperatures most likely on the cool side, say 12’C – though again some uncertainty and a few degree more (assuming some sunshine) is plausible. Likely chilly overnight.

High pressure probably then starts to build over the UK – so Wednesday looks dry, though again probably on the cloudier side of the spectrum, with some sunshine, and likely still on the cool side, say 13’C to 15’C. A chilly night likely – perhaps even a ground frost in more sheltered spots.

Thursday again looks dry, though the easterly breeze means temperatures won’t be anything special – 14’C to 16’C kind of range. Some sunshine, by this point probably on the sunnier side of the spectrum.

Friday more likely dry with some sunshine – uncertain on cloud amounts. A broader range of temperatures possible, anywhere from 12’C to 20’C, though I’d favour somewhere in the upper portion at this stage.

The more likely broad picture for next weekend sees high pressure to our north with the easterly flow continuing. Whether that leads to cloud, drizzle and coolness or sunshine and warmth, or some variable mixture, is too early to say.

I think (and have thought for a long time) that the rest of May will be dominated by high pressure to our north and an easterly flow – it should warm up more, with some variability, as the month goes on – though heavy, thundery showers will likely return, depending on the exact position of high pressure to our north.

It could be worse, and at least we have some relatively warmth and sunshine this weekend. Enjoy!…

Monday 8th May 2023

A mixed and generally showery week ahead, though it does include a bit of sunshine. Not today though.

Thanks to Kate for the very suitable photograph.

Bank Holiday Monday sees rain spread across after a bright start. Generally light/moderate rain and patchy in nature – it won’t really get going until early evening, when it will become heavy and persistent. Reaching around 14’C – occasional bright spells possible. Rain continuing for a while overnight, clearing in the early hours. 12’C.

The general picture for Tuesday sees the large area of low pressure in the Atlantic in charge, a blocking high to our east – and the Azores High starting to push north much further to our west, which will lead to a cooler flow after Tuesday.

Cloudy to start the day, but eventually the sun will poke through – this will lead to frequent heavy showers developing, perhaps very heavy with hail and thunder. Feeling on the warm side, reaching around 18’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Wednesday again sees sunshine and plenty of heavy showers. Somewhat fewer showers and somewhat less potent than Tuesday, but hail and thunder still possible, and most places sees at least a few showers. A bit cooler in the breeze, 16’C. Often cloudy overnight, one or two showers still around, down to around 8’C.

Same kind of story for Thursday – some sunny spells, but lots of heavy/very heavy showers developing, with hail/thunder possible. Around 15’C. Showers fading fairly quickly in the evening, clear spells to start though a chance of mist/fog forming. Down to around 6’C.

Something of an improvement for Friday (though I do enjoy the heavy, thundery showers myself), with much fewer showers – around a 30% chance of one or two, though some uncertainty on cloud amounts. Early mist/fog and low cloud may take a while to clear – some uncertainty how much sunshine for the afternoon, it could become very pleasant, or it may well stay mostly cloudy. Temperatures somewhere between 13’C and 19’C, depending on sunshine amounts. More low cloud may well spill in from the east overnight, down to around 8’C.

By Saturday we are just about under high pressure – with one low pressure system close to our south-east, another to our north-west.

There’s uncertainty on details for Saturday due to the exact positioning of the low pressure to our south-east. Slightly more likely it is a fairly pleasant day with spells of sunshine, though the north-easterly breeze taking the edge off temperatures and a chance of a shower – reaching around 17’C, perhaps more. Slightly less likely, we struggle to clear the overnight cloud and maybe we get some sunshine later in the day, but temperatures struggle to around 14’C.

The general theme for Sunday sees a weather front pushing down from the north-west – but more likely later in the day, so probably some sunshine before that, and temperatures somewhere in the range of 16’C to 19’C more likely. Cloud amounts and shower chances generally increasing as the afternoon goes on. There is some uncertainty so don’t be too surprised if this weather front arrives earlier in the day – or even overnight on Sunday instead.

The more likely outcome for early next week, sees a chilly northerly flow with showers. Hmmm. No particular signals for the rest of the week, but I’d plump for showery more likely than dry.

On the bright side, I’m increasingly confident that June will be sunnier, drier and warmer than normal.

Next forecast probably on Friday morning. Enjoy the showers.…

Friday 5th May 2023

Well it’s warmer. But unsettled with rain or heavy showers.

Thanks to Lucinda for the photograph.

Friday morning will be fairly cloudy with scattered heavy showers. More in the way of sunny spells in the afternoon, but still a fair scattering of heavy showers, perhaps very heavy with thunder. Quite warm, 18’C. Clear spells at first overnight though cloud gradually thickening with outbreaks of rain arriving around dawn, or just after. No lower than 10’C.

The general set-up for Saturday sees low pressure to our west – not actually able to move across the UK because of the high pressure block over Scandinavia, but close enough to make it unsettled in a somewhat unstable and warmer flow.

So Saturday will be cloudy with outbreaks of rain – sometimes light, sometimes heavy, sometimes not raining. A mild feel at 14’C, despite the cloud and rain. A few showery bit still possible in the evening, otherwise generally cloudy overnight and no lower than around 12’C.

Sunday looks the better day of the weekend, though imperfect. Cloudy during the morning, it will break up around lunchtime into at least some sunny spells. How much sunshine is uncertain, though I’m hopeful at least reasonable sunny spells as the afternoon progresses, and as such, temperatures anywhere in the range of 17’C to 20’C, though more likely the upper side. A chance of a shower, but more likely dry overall. Clear spells at first overnight though cloud gradually thickening as the next weather front arrives, bringing rain at some point in the second half of the night. Down to around 10’C.

Bank Holiday Monday sees rain – some uncertainty on the timings here, but broadly outbreaks of rain in the morning, some heavy bursts – more likely this continues into the afternoon, but perhaps it clears a little quicker and the afternoon sees some sunny spells but also showers. Assuming the rain hangs around, then temperatures around 14’C – but closer to 18’C if the sun comes out in the afternoon. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, around 10’C.

Tuesday is kind of an in-between day, likely some sunny spells but also some showers, perhaps heavy – uncertainty at this stage as to details on showers. Temperatures somewhere in the range of 16’C to 20’C.

Suggestions by Wednesday that high pressure starts to rise towards our west, which isn’t ideal for those hoping for warmth.

Which means the more likely conditions sees a fair amount of cloud, some sunny spells, some showers – possibly heavy. Temperatures a bit lower, in the range of 13’C to 16’C most likely.

Thursday most likely fairly similar to Wednesday.

Plausible that Friday could be pleasant and warmish, but very low confidence.

Next weekend could be anything usual for the time of year, though I’d be surprised if it was very warm or notably cold.

Well, enjoy the Coronation weekend (or enjoy studiously ignoring it) – next update will be on Monday and I won’t be forecasting anything summer-like then either. Maybe in June. At least my seasonal forecast was for a fairly poor spring.

Current thinking for summer is warmer but wetter than normal – driest in June with the best chance of longer settled spells, wettest in July/August, warmer/hotter than normal June/July, around average in August, short heatwaves more likely in July, perhaps June too.

Things very much in flux though due to the developing El Niño – and, as always, the fact that long-term forecasting is HARD and things often change to disrupt previous long-term patterns. Though my spring forecast is so far doing quite well (unfortunately!).…

Monday 1st May 2023

Well, it’s a bit warmer and it will get warmer later in time for the next bank holiday weekend – but also wetter. Oops.

Thanks to Christel for the photograph.

Today will be fairly cloudy, though with some bright/sunny spells at times – particularly later in the day. Heavy showers will break out fairly widely by around late morning with a small chance of hail/thunder – showers becoming fewer by late afternoon. Quite warm, around 17’C, maybe 18’C. Clear spells at first overnight, cloud tending to spread down from the north in the second half of the night, around 8’C.

Tuesday has a small area of high pressure over the UK, though with a weak northerly flow, so it will be a little cooler.

Quite a lot of cloud for Tuesday, though some bright spells at times – and the cloud tending to break up more by late afternoon to give more in the way of sunny spells. Around 15’C. Fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 4’C.

Wednesday looks fairly pleasant with hazy sunshine for much of the day. Temperatures between 14’C and 16’C – a little uncertainty depending on the exact direction of the easterly breeze, which will strengthen a bit. Cloud gradually thickening overnight though still some clear spells at times – down to around 8’C and breezy.

By Thursday, low pressure to the west edges closer, but this also brings warmer air too. Generally bright with hazy sunshine at times, especially in the morning, and warm – somewhere between 18’C and 20’C. The cloud perhaps thick enough for a bit of showery rain in the afternoon. Perhaps. Fairly cloudy overnight – showers possible though some uncertainty. Mild and breezy, 11’C.

Friday sees low pressure edging ever closer.

Quite a lot of cloud around on Friday with plenty of heavy showers around, hail/thunder possible. On the warm side and perhaps humid too, somewhere between 17’C and 19’C.

Details still a bit sketchy for the Coronation weekend – but generally warmer and showery.

Saturday most likely sees heavy showers, perhaps a spell of general heavy, showery rain at some point. Temperatures roughly in the range of 16’C to 19’C, depending on sunshine amounts.

Sunday most likely sunny spells and showers, heavy, perhaps thundery. Temperatures roughly between 16’C and 20’C.

Bank Holiday Monday most likely again sunny spells and heavy, possibly thundery, showers. A small chance of general heavy rain – a small chance of generally dry. Temperatures most likely in the range of 16’C to 20’C.

There’s an unusually strong signal (at this range) for next week to be unsettled and has been for a little while. Temperatures generally quite warm though.

After mid-month, the signals tend to be for an easterly flow – and probably warmer than normal. However, I’d still expect heavy showers at least some days.

Have a pleasant week – next forecast probably Friday morning.…