Thursday 27th April 2023

Finally some warmth! But some cloud and showers too, so don’t get too excited.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

Tonight sees showery rain, occasionally heavy, for the first half of the night, mostly dry later in the night, bar the odd spot. 9’C and breezy, though becoming a tad milder as the night goes on.

Friday finally sees something a bit warmer push up from the south.

Cloudy to start the day, some bits of lightish showery rain around though dry most of the time. Slowly some breaks in the cloud will appear, and gradually during the afternoon it will become sunnier – rather pleasant by the end of the day. Reaching around 18’C. Some clear spells overnight, though mist/low cloud forming towards dawn, perhaps some fog patches. No lower than around 8’C.

Saturday sees any early mist/fog/low cloud clearing, leaving sunny spells and some cloud. A 20% or so chance of a heavy shower in the afternoon – I think the risk is further west/north than here, but worth considering. Reaching around 17’C, maybe 18’C. The showers further west/north may spread our way in the evening and overnight, around a 30% chance, but otherwise a mixture of clear spells and cloud, down to around 6’C.

Sunday should start with hazy sunshine. Cloud will bubble up, though there will still be reasonable amounts of sunshine, if hazy at times. The shower risk again mostly further west/north, but around a 30% chance of catching a heavy shower, a 10% chance that actually we catch quite a few. 18’C seems feasible. A few showers around in the evening and overnight, though still a chance of staying dry. Down to around 9’C.

Bank Holiday Monday starts on the cloudy side. The cloud should break up fairly readily, with good sunny spells in the afternoon. A few stray showers may break out over England, say a 20% chance of one. Reaching around 18’C, maybe 19’C. Our first 20’C of the year might just be out of reach, though a small chance. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

Tuesday sees high pressure in control, though otherwise details a bit sketchy – there’s another attempt to push colder air down from the north at the same time that there will be another attempt to push warmer air up from the south. Probably more cloud than sunshine overall, temperatures anywhere between 14’C and 22’C – though somewhere in the middle probably more realistic.

Wednesday perhaps sees a hint of an easterly flow as high pressure moves north-east. Again uncertain on cloud amounts and maximum temperatures, somewhere between 13’C and 19’C, with somewhere in the middle more realistic. Likely dry though.

Same kind of story for Thursday, likely dry but otherwise uncertain. Slight differences in wind direction and the source of air in a probable easterly can mean the difference between 12’C and 20’C this time of year.

The chance of showers increases for the Coronation weekend and especially the week after. Otherwise no real confidence on temperatures for next weekend – same story really with a wide range of possibilities – not especially unusual 9-10 days away, and especially typical for this time of year.

Enjoy your extended weekend, and the relative warmth. Alas, I’m up north, where it will be cooler with heavy showers. C’est La Vie.…

Tuesday 25th April 2023

A fairly mixed week ahead, some sunshine, some showers/rain – colder at first, warmer later. Yes, warmer. But still mixed.

Thanks to Helena for the photograph.

Tuesday starts sunny. Cloud will bubble up from mid/late morning, and it will be rather cloudy for the rest of the day, though with some limited sunny breaks and dry. 11’C. Some clear spells at first overnight though generally fairly cloudy. Down to around 4’C.

Wednesday looks mostly cloudy as a very weak weather front pushes north-east. Some bright spells at times allowing some hazy sunshine, maybe a splash of light rain/drizzle at times too, but mostly cloudy – and temperatures still struggling, 9’C, maybe 10’C. Mostly cloudy overnight though a few clear spells at times, down to around 5’C.

You may remember in previous forecasts that I talked about the battle between cold air pushing south and warmer air trying to push north, with the cold air winning at first. Well, by Thursday the warmer (milder at first) air will start winning.

But don’t get too excited, it is bringing rain. Mostly cloudy, some bright/sunny spells possible at first – some uncertainty on the timing of rain, but roughly afternoon and evening, and rather showery in nature is the more likely outcome. Temperatures around 13’C, though I wouldn’t rule out a bit more, especially if the rain doesn’t arrive until late afternoon. Showery rain gradually clearing overnight, likely staying cloudy and mild, around 10’C.

Details sketchier from here – and the relatively warmth isn’t completely a done deal, it is geographically a close call. But more likely for Friday, we see cloud slowly breaking up to give some sunny spells – likely more cloud than sunshine even during the afternoon. Temperatures in the range of 14’C to 18’C, depending on sunshine amounts. Should it be sunnier than I currently think likely, scattered heavy showers could develop. Fairly cloudy and around 10’C overnight.

By Saturday we see the warmer air, at least into the southern half of Britain.

Again some details uncertain – likely more cloud than sunshine overall, with some scattered heavy showers developing. But also some fairly warm sunshine, temperatures between 17’C and 20’C. Which would be the first time this year England reaches 20’C (Scotland already has!). Fairly cloudy overnight, perhaps some showery rain, around 12’C.

Sunday is uncertain, but more likely on the cloudy side with some heavy showers, or some heavy showery rain. Temperatures roughly in the 13’C to 16’C kind of range.

For next week, high pressure looks like it will be close by and keep it on the drier side, with a few showers possible – however positioning of the high pressure area is uncertain. It could easily manoeuvre to allow a colder feed back once more from the north/east – or it could stay in a milder/warmish position.

Low confidence for Bank Holiday Monday, but more likely we’ll see some sunny spells, some cloud, a chance of a heavy shower in the afternoon. Temperatures highly uncertain, and will depend on the position of high pressure as I mentioned, anywhere from 12’C to 18’C.

I’d suggest staying milder/warmish is a slight favourite for next week, though we could easily start cool and warm up. And I wouldn’t rule out warm warm either.


But I do expect the second week of May and into the middle of May to be more unsettled.

Next forecast probably Thursday evening.…

Friday 21st April 2023

Colder than normal with some showers. Yay.

Thanks to Chris for the photograph.

So the general set-up for Friday sees high pressure to our north with an easterly flow and a little cold pool of air over the UK.

This morning will be mostly cloudy, a bit of hazy sunshine at times, but plenty of showers developing – some heavy. Some sunny breaks in the afternoon, alongside some heavy showers – these tending to become fewer by late afternoon. We might squeeze 10’C in an easterly breeze. Clear skies overnight, though mist/fog patches forming later in the night. Down to around 2’C – a frost possible in more sheltered spots.

Saturday sees early mist/fog lifting, and generally the morning will be fairly cloudy with some hazy sunshine, any showers should be on the lighter side of the scale. A greater chance of showers in the afternoon, or perhaps a longer spell of rain, say 2-3 hours, perhaps on the heavy side. Around 12’C. Showers possible overnight though some uncertainty – a greater chance towards dawn.

Sunday and heavy showers on Sunday, though perhaps the morning cloudier with some general showery rain – some uncertainty on where this tracks, it could be further east. Otherwise, yeah, showers. Around 13’C. A bit of a mixture overnight, some cloud, some clear spells – the odd shower still possible, down to around 4’C.

Looking for it to get colder? Well, I’ve got an Arctic flow for you next week.

Two things are happening – one, colder air will be pushing down from the north, though at the same time, low pressure to the west of Spain/Portugal will be acting as a heat pump, pushing hot air north. The cold air will win.

Ominously some models are suggesting that Spain will break it’s record April temperature next week, a record that was set…oooh…11 days ago. The record is 33.7’C – one model is suggesting 40’C is possible near Seville. In April.

The counter-acting influence keeping us in colder flows in the UK is probably the sudden stratospheric warming event that happened in mid-February – or at least its previous impact on weather patterns.

Anyway, Monday starts fairly cloudy and cool, some scattered showers, probably on the lighter side. A bit more sunshine in the afternoon, but also some heavier showers – though fairly scattered so you may stay dry or mostly so. Cool in the northerly breeze, 11’C. Increasingly clear skies overnight with a frost possible, particularly in more sheltered spots, down to around 1’C.

Tuesday starts sunny, likely a lot of cloud bubbles up from late morning with limited sunny spells from then. Cool, 10’C, maybe 11’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, perhaps a spot of light rain later, down to around 4’C.

Details becoming sketchier from here, but tending to see low pressure edging east towards us, cutting off the cooler northerly flow and slowly becoming milder…maybe…maybe warmer.

Fairly low confidence for Wednesday, but broadly probably fairly cloudy and cool, maybe a little light rain around. Roughly 11’C.

Again fairly low confidence for Thursday, but either cloudy or partly cloudy with some sunny spells, and around 14’C.

Maybe some showery rain around on Friday, but if the sun comes out, then maybe 17’C or so possible. Very low confidence!

Next weekend could realistically be anything that you could expect in April, but a slight favourite would be something warmer and drier – say between 16’C and 20’C.

Conflicting signals for May – the heat pump low is probably going to be a feature to the west of Spain at some point(s), but as this coming week shows, that doesn’t mean the heat will reach the UK (or even France).

I’d expect the overhang of the SSW event to still be in play, so high pressure featuring to our north at times, which means more easterly or northerly flows – however easterlies in May can easily be warm (if with heavy, thundery showers), depending on exact conditions.

There is also a weak signal for something more unsettled towards or just before the middle of May.

Best chance for warm sunshine probably early or late May – though that aforementioned warm easterly with showers, perhaps the theme in late May.

Obviously this is all kind of conjecture, based on current atmospheric patterns, past weather patterns and weak future signals.

Enjoy your weekend.…

Monday 17th April 2023

A few dry and sometimes sunny days, but becoming cooler with some showers later in the week.

So we made it to 17’C today, and it kind of feels like spring is here.

Don’t get too excited.

Thanks to Liz for the photograph.

Clear skies at first tonight before a band of cloud spreads west, down to around 5’C. The band of cloud likely clearing west around dawn – a chance of some mist/fog patches also.

Tuesday sees high pressure over Scandinavia, with an easterly flow.

Early mist/fog/low cloud clearing swiftly to bring sunny spells, but further cloud moving in from the east around late morning onwards – some sunny spells possible, but most likely it is mostly cloudy. Reaching around 13’C in the morning, but becoming somewhat cooler in the afternoon, as the wind picks up. A small chance of an afternoon shower. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 7’C.

Wednesday sees more in the way of cloud, but there will be some bright/sunny spells at times – a small chance of a shower. Likely sunnier from around mid-afternoon onwards. 14’C but feeling a bit cool in the easterly wind. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 4’C, still breezy.

Thursday looks mostly sunny to start, some cloud bubbling up in the afternoon with one or two showers later. Still a notably easterly breeze and a little uncertainty on temperatures, reaching somewhere between 12’C and 14’C, still feeling cool in the wind. A notable cold pool of air spreads across overnight, along with some scattered showers – perhaps heavy. Minimum temperatures somewhere between 1’C and 4’C, depending on cloud amounts.

By Friday, we remain in the easterly flow, now with a cold pool of air overhead.

Fairly cloudy with showers, some will be heavy. Maximum temperatures somewhere in the range of 7’C to 11’C – the latter only possible with some sunshine, which is uncertain. Yuck. It was only a few days ago that weather models were showing warmth for Friday (though I did say there were two possible outcomes – and we’ve got the cool one). Showers still possible overnight, but also some clear spells – if skies clear long enough then fog patches possible, or maybe frost in more sheltered spots. Down to roughly 4’C, but very give or take.

Details uncertain for the weekend, but there should be some form of improvement.

However, low pressure will be close by, and it is too early to know where it will be positioned, and hence the chance of rain or showers.

Going by more likely locations, then the more likely general theme sees showers at some points, but also there should be some sunny spells, and perhaps some more lengthy dry spells – lengthy as in a morning, or an afternoon! But any further details is uncertain – I cannot rule out a dry weekend, but nor can I rule out a washout.

Temperatures a little better as we’ll have lost out easterly and our cold spool, somewhere in the range of 12’C to 15’C more likely – nothing amazing, but pleasant enough assuming some sunshine.

At this time of year, there is less westerly forcing – so easterlies become more common (as per this week), but also northerly and southerly flows can be more common, with a meandering jetstream.

And both a northerly and a southerly flow look like attempting to set up next week – which means fairly cold temperatures or warm temperatures are both more likely than average temperatures.

More likely, it is the fairly cold northerly plunge that wins out at the beginning of next week, at around a 70% chance, with daytime temperatures in the range of 8’C to 10’C, sunshine and showers, perhaps with a wintry note, a chilly wind and a chance of overnight frosts.

A warm and sunny start to the week instead would be around a 20% chance, say 18’C to 24’C, and a 10% chance of somewhere in the middle.

Things will be more finely balanced later in the week, the colder air the slight favourite, the warm/very warm air just behind – say 40% to 35% to 30%, cold to warm to average.…

Friday 14th April 2023

Today is the last of the unsettled days for a while, as high pressure then takes over. But will it warm up?

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

Today will be mostly cloudy as a weak area of low pressure splits into two over the UK – occasional bits of rain is the theme, mostly light or moderate rain, though the odd heavy burst possible. The cloud thin enough at times to see some hazy sunshine. Pretty chilly for the time of year, 10’C at best and breezy at times too. The rain becoming more persistent and probably fairly heavy in the evening – this persistent rain clearing east late evening, but remaining cloudy overnight with a bit of occasional light rain still likely. Down to around 5’C.

High pressure starts to build on Saturday, though we’ll start the day cloudy, perhaps the odd spot of light rain. The sun will gradually come out, probably around lunchtime though some uncertain on timing – if enough sunshine then a few scattered showers will break out, possibly heavy, say around a 50% chance of catching one or two. 13’C, maybe 14’C. Clear skies at first overnight though cloud gradually thickening somewhat from the west as a very weak weather front approaches – down to around 4’C.

By Sunday, we see high pressure fairly well established over the UK – our earlier low pressure trough towards Italy now.

However, the overnight weak weather front will still be around, so there will be quite a bit of cloud, with hazy sunshine the theme. Reaching around 14’C. Some clear spells overnight, though a chance of mist/fog or low cloud towards dawn, down to around 3’C.

Monday sees early mist/fog or low cloud. This will lift to allow sunshine during the morning, though likely a lot of cloud bubbling up through lunchtime into the afternoon – with increasing sunshine again as the afternoon goes on. Around 15’C. More likely clear skies overnight, though uncertain – assuming so, down to around 4’C. Mist/fog patches possible by dawn.

By Tuesday, we’ll have picked up an easterly – but the continent hasn’t warmed up enough yet.

We should see decent sunny spells, some cloud but a pleasant day – however the easterly breeze will make it feel cooler, say somewhere between 12’C and 14’C.

Wednesday is uncertain on cloud amounts, though more likely on the cloudier side of things, in the easterly breeze. Temperatures more likely in the range of 11’C to 13’C.

That’s about as far as I can go with any confidence at the moment.

There are suggestions that low pressure slowly tries to approach from the west towards the end of next week – how this approaches will be key in the weather for late next week, and it is certainly plausible that it could induce a warm southerly flow for a few days – likewise though maybe low pressure crosses France or southern England and it stays cooler.

I guess you could summarise Thursday and into next weekend as more likely mostly dry, with an increasing chance of some showers. A greater range of possible temperatures through the period – the cool easterly could continue, or a warm southerly could take over – at least they are the two more likely outcomes.

Hints of something more showery towards the end of April/beginning of May…but can we squeeze a short warm spell before?

Too many questions for now. Next forecast probably Tuesday morning. Enjoy the weekend.…

Monday 10th April 2023

Back to rain, showers and wind. But next week looks more promising.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

Easter Monday starts cloudy with outbreaks of rain. This clears by late morning to sunny spells and scattered showers – some heavy, perhaps a rumble of thunder or some hail mixed in. 14’C – winds fairly strong, notably strong gusts possible in heavier showers. Showers fading during the evening, mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 4’C.

Tuesday starts bright with sunshine, cloud soon thickens as rain approaches from the south-west. Outbreaks of rain from around early afternoon onwards, though the odd scattered shower possible before the main rain arrives. 12’C and windy. Rain will continue, heavy at times, through most of the evening, strong winds also – clearing by late evening. Clear skies follow for a time, though a cluster of showers arriving around dawn – not impossible that they could have a bit of sleet mixed in. Down to around 3’C.

For Wednesday we see a fairly deep area of low pressure in charge.

Some sunny spells at times, more so in the morning, but lots of heavy showers developing – more so from lunchtime onwards. Hail, thunder, heavy downpours – maybe even some sleet mixed in. Strong winds during the afternoon, temperatures reaching 10’C – though dropping in showers. Still some showers in the evening and overnight, but most of them fade, winds less strong also – down to around 4’C.

Low pressure moves away for Thursday, so we are left with sunny spells and a few scattered showers. 11’C and still fairly windy. Probably fairly clear skies overnight, though some uncertainty, down to around 2’C.

Friday is a bit uncertain – low pressure will be crossing close to our south so it should bring cloud and some rain or showers – the more likely outcome is that the bulk of the rain will be over France, but there is a chance that it will be a thoroughly wet day, rather than cloudy with some bits of rain/showers. Around 11’C.

Saturday depends somewhat on what track Friday’s low pressure system took, though more of the story sees high pressure developing. So broadly speaking a reasonable day, with some cloud, some sunny spells and temperatures roughly between 10’C and 13’C is the more likely outcome – but a risk of something cooler and showery, if Friday’s low was further north.

More confidence for Sunday with the Azores High ridging in.

Cloud amounts uncertain at this stage – it could be anywhere in the range of mostly sunny to mostly cloudy, and therefore temperatures in the range of 13’C to 18’C, depending on how sunny it is.

More likely than not, next week starts pleasant – uncertainty on cloud amounts, but there should be at least some sunshine, with temperatures more likely in the range of 15’C to 18’C – with a small chance of our first 20’C if everything aligns perfectly.

Most likely next week remains dry or mostly so – uncertainty on cloud amounts and temperatures – models suggesting a cooler easterly flow slightly more likely later in the week, but possible we stay on the warm side. Overnight frosts will still be possible.

Next forecast probably on Friday morning. I wish you a productive week!…

Friday 7th April 2023

A mostly pleasant Easter weekend ahead, though back to changeable from Monday.

Thanks to Pauline for the photograph.

Good Friday sees good spells of sunshine – fairly glorious at times, some cloud around in the afternoon, and a very small chance of a light shower. Reaching 14’C, maybe 15’C – it will feel fairly warm in the sun. Mostly clear skies overnight, chilly, down to around 2’C – fog forming in places by dawn.

The general picture for Saturday sees high pressure over Scandinavia/Russian stretching its influence this far west, hence giving us a mostly pleasant weekend.

Early mist/fog/low cloud in places, but this will break up into sunny skies. Both high cloud and fair weather cloud developing from lunchtime onwards, less sunshine than Friday but still sunny spells and pleasant. 14’C, maybe 15’C. Fairly clear skies overnight, a chance of some mist/fog forming by dawn in places, down to around 4’C.

For Easter Sunday we have a more southerly breeze. Early mist/fog/low cloud in places will quickly clear, and generally we are looking at spells of hazy sunshine, with varying amounts of cloud. 15’C, maybe 16’C. Cloud thickening during the evening, with some patchy rain after midnight. 8’C and breezy.

Easter Monday starts cloudy with some rain – perhaps some heavy bursts though uncertain at this stage. Also uncertain when it clears, though around late morning is a reasonable guideline – sunny spells and heavy showers following, perhaps with thunder. Windy, especially in any showers that follow the main rain band, around 14’C, give or take. Showers fading during the evening, clear spells overnight, down to around 4’C.

Tuesday starts sunny, but cloud will thicken with wind and rain arriving later – timing uncertain though mid-afternoon is currently a reasonable guideline. Around 12’C. Heavy rain and strong winds follow for the evening and at least part of the night.

Wednesday sees this low pressure system, rather deep for the time of year, sat over the UK somewhere.

Strong winds, perhaps gales, with sunshine and heavy showers the most likely outcome – though a spell of rain possible, depending on the positioning of the low pressure system. Around 11’C. What spring?

Thursday most likely sunny spells and showers, and windy. Around 11’C.

Another low pressure system probably crossing during Friday (not yet definite but a high chance), bringing further wet and windy weather. Still around 11’C.

Hmmm. Doesn’t sound too promising, does it?

However, from next weekend, it does look the Azores High will try to push up from the south-west – more likely over Spain/France but very possibly this far north, so the chance of something notably warmer and drier increases. Saturday is probably too soon, Sunday maybe, the next week more likely.

Also however, low pressure will be close to our west/north and the jetstream looks fairly active for the time of year too. It is a close call. It could be just somewhat above-average temperatures but changeable weather conditions.

Let’s say maybe a 50% chance of a warmer and drier spell – warmer as in 20’C.

Enjoy your Easter weekend – time for me to go for a walk in the sunshine I reckon. With a beer or two at the end.…

Tuesday 4th April 2023

Some rain in the forecast, but settled for much of it – and a tiny bit milder/warmer than previously thought.

Thanks to Chris for the photograph. And no thanks to Virgin Media for being a disaster this morning.

Today sees long spells of sunshine. Kind of glorious and it will feel fairly warm in the sun, though still in reality it is just 13’C, maybe 14’C. A chilly night tonight with a frost in places, down to around 0’C – cloud will gradually thicken as the night goes on.

By Wednesday we start to see a weather front push in from the west.

But for most of Wednesday it will be dry – bright to start with some hazy sunshine poking through, but cloud will gradually thicken. Outbreaks of light and patchy rain arriving during the latter part of the afternoon. 12’C with a bit of a breeze. The band of light/moderate rain slowly crosses overnight, a coule of showers will follow, down to around 8’C.

Thursday starts cloudy – maybe one or two showers. The sun will come out, which will then trigger a few scattered heavy showers, perhaps thunder, though these fading as the afternoon goes on. Breezy, around 13’C. Clear skies overnight – down to around 2’C, a patchy frost in more sheltered spots.

Good Friday will be…quite good. Sunny for the morning, cloud will bubble for the afternoon, a small chance of a light shower, but it will remain bright enough, still some sunny spells. Around 13’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, though a chance of mist/fog by dawn. A patchy frost again, more likely in sheltered spots, down to around 2’C.

You may remember the discussion being whether we’d end up with a chilly easterly feed for the Easter weekend, or a warmer southerly feed – depending on how high pressure to our north-east positioned itself? With the chilly feed being the somewhat favourite.

Well we’ve ended up with a halfway house.

Some mist/fog patches to start Saturday but otherwise it will be sunny. Likely quite a bit of cloud develops, with more cloud than sun overall – though some uncertainty. Temperatures around 14’C, give or take. A very small chance of a light shower. Some cloud overnight as a weak weather front tries to cross, down to around 4’C.

Easter Sunday looks to have a bit of a southerly component to the breeze, so a bit more scope for something warmish, at last. Uncertainty on cloud amounts, but more likely more sunshine than cloud overall, and temperatures more likely in the range of 14’C to 17’C. Don’t be too surprised if it is cloudier and a bit cooler.

Easter Monday probably sees a weather front spread across from the west – timing uncertain, maybe we squeeze out a bit more hazy sunshine before the weather front arrives, but more likely we are cloudy with some rain at some point during the day. Around 14’C, give or take.

Very low confidence for the rest of next week, something changeable slightly more likely, though I wouldn’t rule out some pleasant days instead. Temperatures average or slightly above – and slightly above is pretty decent now.

So a little bit better than previously expected for Easter. Nice.…