Friday 31st March 2023

A couple more unsettled days, then becoming more pleasant. But will it warm up?

Thanks to Marina for the photograph.

Today sees low pressure in charge – our last one for a while.

It will be mostly cloudy all day with outbreaks of rain. Not always raining, but fairly often, sometimes heavy – particularly (though not exclusively) in the afternoon and early evening. 11’C and quite windy. Further rain at times overnight, down to around 7’C.

Saturday’s details are a little sketchy, but generally showery outbreaks of rain to start the day, this clears to the south at some point in the morning, followed by mostly dry weather, though the odd shower will be possible – and maybe a little brightness. 10’C though feeling cool as the wind swings more north-easterly. Further showery rain pushing south-east in the evening, though it should be mostly light. Generally cloudy and around 5’C.

Sunday starts cloudy. Gradually this will break up, and it will become increasingly sunny as the day goes on. A cool north-easterly breeze, maybe 11’C but feeling cooler. Clear skies overnight, down to around 0’C so a frost for most – a bit lower in the more sheltered spots.

Monday sees high pressure to our east, stretching towards Scandinavia.

It will be mostly sunny with a bit of cloud at times. Still only 11’C with a light easterly breeze making it feel a little cool – though, of course, the sun feels quite strong now. Clear skies overnight, a frost likely for most, down to around -1’C. A small chance of mist/fog by dawn.

A bit more cloud around on Tuesday as weather fronts try to push in from the west – but it will be high/medium-level cloud, so often we’ll see hazy sunshine. 11’C, maybe 12’C. Probably fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 4’C.

Wednesday is probably cloudy as a weak weather front slowly pushes south-east – bringing mostly cloudy, but maybe a little patchy rain at some point. Temperatures somewhere between 12’C and 14’C.

Low confidence for Thursday, but more likely cloudy than sunny, perhaps some patchy light rain from a weak weather front. But don’t be too surprised if sunny (ish) instead – 60/40 split roughly in terms of likelihood. Temperatures somewhere between 12’C and 15’C.

I’m still pretty confident of high pressure being close by for Easter weekend. However, the tricky part is exactly where it will be and the source of the air – broadly speaking I expect it to somewhere to our east or north-east.

The slightly more likely outcome would lead to a fairly cool weekend in an easterly flow, temperatures roughly around 10’C, sunny at times, cloudy at times – perhaps with some light rain.

The slightly less likely outcome would lead to a mild/quite warm weekend in a southerly (ish) flow, temperatures roughly between 14’C and 18’C, often sunny.

We could also have a transition, say mild to cool, or vice versa. I’d say roughly 65/35 cool/quite warm in terms of chances.

After Easter, I’d suggest the slightly more likely outcome would see high pressure to our north, low to our south, so on the cool/average side, with a mixture of wet/showery days and drier/sunnier days.

Have a good weekend – as I mentioned I’m trialling a Tuesday/Friday morning cadence, so we’ll see how it goes! …

Tuesday 28th March 2023

Good morning from sunny and warm Malta! No, I will not be bringing the warmth back with me, but it will start to become drier from the weekend. Some unsettled weather to come first.

Thanks to Christel for the photograph.

A bit less research than normal today, because of the so-so wi-fi.

Today will be cloudy with outbreaks of rain – most of the rain in the morning, the afternoon much drier but still some occasional splashes of light rain possible. Windy, around 8’C. Cloudy and 9’C overnight.

Wednesday sees an area of showers move up from the south-west during the morning, some heavy. Generally cloudy afterwards, with a few scattered heavy showers possible again towards early evening. Mild and breeze, 12’C. Further heavy showers during the evening, mostly dry overnight with a few clear spells, down to 9’C or so.

Sunny spells and scattered showers on Thursday, most places catching at least a couple of showers but a small chance you’ll stay dry. Showers could be heavy with a small chance of hail/thunder. 15’C and breezy. Rain spreading up from the south-west in the evening, some heavy bursts and times, and winds becoming fairly strong.

Friday sees low pressure over the south of England, a fairly deep system for the time of year. Showery rain or showers all day, limited brightness, fairly strong winds especially in any heavy showers. Around 11’C. Showers/showery rain continuing overnight and on the cool side, around 6’C.

Saturday sees low pressure slowly moving south-east, so there will be plenty of cloud and still some bits of showery rain at times, or showers – still a chance of a heavy shower. Some uncertainty on both wind strength and temperatures, which will depend on the positioning of the low pressure – temperatures anywhere between 6’C and 12’C. Uncertain overnight – either cloudy with bits and pieces of rain, or clear skies with a frost.

Sunday starts to see high pressure build. Still a chance of a shower, but generally more settled, there should be at least a bit of sunshine. Temperatures nothing special, roughly between 9’C and 11’C.

Next week looks drier – I wouldn’t want to suggest no rain at this stage.

Easter weekend is more likely dry than wet, but also more likely cool than warm.

Generally April does look cool and often showery. May isn’t looking anything special – warmer, but above-average rainfall currently still looks more likely. We’ll see…things change, but I’m not especially optimistic for spring!

Maybe time to book another holiday…

Next forecast will probably be on Friday. I shall go enjoy my last full day of sunshine and warmth for who know how long. See ya!…

Friday 24th March 2023

Staying unsettled with a short cold spell from Sunday.

Thanks to Eve for the photograph.

Friday sees low pressure in charge – and once it clears east it will allow colder air to spread down from the north.

Some sunny spells but plenty of cloud bubbling up, with some heavy showers – perhaps very heavy with a small chance of hail and/or thunder. Breezy with fairly strong gusts in any showers, but mild, 13’C, maybe 14’C. Showers mostly fading in the evening and overnight, though one or two stray ones will be around, down to around 7’C.

Saturday again sees some sunny spells, and also some showers. Less showers and less potent than Friday, but still possibly on the heavy side, and you still may catch a few during the course of the day. Mild and breezy, with strong gusts still possible in showers, around 13’C. Cloud thickening overnight with outbreaks of rain spreading up from the south-west from around late evening – some heavy bursts possible. Down to around 6’C.

Sunday starts with outbreaks of rain. Some uncertainty as to how long it takes to clear – midday would be a good starting point, but it could be up to a few hours either way. Not much in the way of sunshine to follow, a northerly wind making it feel colder later too. 8’C. Clear spells developing overnight – likely a frost, down to around 0’C.

Monday sees high pressure in charge temporarily – though there is a large area of low pressure to our west and the jetstream is pretty strong and together.

There will be plenty of sunshine – some cloud developing, especially in the afternoon but sunshine generally the theme. However, it will be cold for late March, around 8’C. Clear skies at first, temperatures down to around 1’C and we might get a frost – close call. Cloud thickening and becoming quite windy by dawn.

Tuesday sees a band of rain spread across – not expecting too much in the way of rain, mostly light to moderate. Quite windy and temperatures around 7’C. Mostly cloudy overnight though becoming a bit milder, 9’C.

Wednesday looks windy with either rain or showers. Much milder though, around 14’C.

Thursday and Friday broadly similar – showery more likely than general rain, temperatures roughly between 12’C and 16’C – depending on sunshine amounts.

Hints of high pressure trying to build next weekend – I wouldn’t expect it shower-free yet, but maybe at least something pleasant. Perhaps even quite warm into the start of the next week – but very low confidence.

Early suggestions for Easter weekend are that drier weather is slightly more likely overall, though that wouldn’t necessarily mean dry all weekend, with high pressure more likely to build to our east/north-east.

Depending on exact positioning, that could lead to a chilly easterly – or a warm southerly. The chilly easterly would more likely be cloudy with some drizzle possible, the warm southerly may feature the odd heavy, thundery shower. Long way away though! And of course, we could have a warm southerly that turns into a chilly easterly, or vice versa, or maybe some other combination.

At least there’s a chance of something warmer!

Next forecast will probably be on Monday, but I’m going to Malta for a few days as I need some warm sunshine. So it will be whenever I feel like. Any tips for Malta welcomed.

Have a good weekend.…

Monday 20th March 2023

An unsettled week ahead.

It’s also the last week before the clocks go forward, and hence the last week where the evening weather models are released before 7pm – so I might switch cadence next week to Tuesday/Friday mornings, or at least try it.

Thanks to Sue for the photograph.

This evening and tonight sees showery rain, occasionally on the heavy side, though there will be dry spells in between. Breezy and around 8’C.

The general picture for Tuesday (and the next week or so) sees the Azores High building over Europe, but a large low pressure trough in the Atlantic controlling our weather.

Tuesday starts cloudy, maybe still a bit of patchy rain around. This will be replaced around mid-morning by sunshine, with a scattering of showers – perhaps heavy. Showers will fade during the afternoon and sunshine amounts increase. Mild, 14’C, maybe 15’C but quite windy too. Cloud thickening overnight with outbreaks of rain from roughly midnight onwards. Windy, some fairly strong gusts overnight, and around 9’C.

Wednesday starts cloudy with some patchy rain still possible. This clears pretty swiftly to spells of hazy sunshine – one or two showers dotted around, say a 20% chance of catching one. Breezy and mild, 14’C, maybe 15’C. A band of showers crossing around late evening and into the first part of the night, potentially heavy – clear spells either side. Windy and around 7’C.

Still fairly windy on Thursday, with heavy showers and some sunny spells. Probably an area of heavy rain develops, though there is uncertainty on the tracking – it may go to our east, say around a 60% chance of it tracking overhead. And uncertainty on the timing, either afternoon or evening. Around 13’C.

Friday sees low pressure in charge – sunny spells and scattered heavy showers. Showers could be very heavy with hail/thunder mixed in (first proper chance of thunder for 2023). Fairly strong winds, especially in any showers, and temperatures around 12’C. Further showers overnight, down to around 7’C.

Probably less showers around for Saturday, though low confidence, and likely still some showers. Some sunny spells too, perhaps more so later in the day. Around 12’C and somewhat lighter winds. A chilly night likely, down to around 3’C.

The more likely outcome for Sunday sees a northerly flow.

Likely fairly cloudy with some showers – perhaps more sunshine and less showers later in the day. Cooler and feeling so in the breeze/wind, around 10’C. A frost probable overnight.

Monday looks fairly sunny with a ridge of high pressure – though on the cool side, around 10’C.

Most likely we then revert back to unsettled for the rest of next week, with further wind, rain and/or showers. Temperatures generally quite mild.

For those looking for spring warmth – well, chances are pretty slim in the foreseeable. A small chance of a warmer and pleasant weekend to start April, but far more likely it remains unsettled and mild.

There are hints of high pressure having more influence from around the second week of April, though at first more likely positioned for cooler flows of air. The second half of April has more hope for warmth.

Next forecast probably will be Friday morning, if I go to the proposed work social on Thursday evening.…

Thursday 16th March 2023

Much milder, but with showers.

This evening and tonight will be mostly cloudy with occasional bits of rain. Around 10’C.

The general set-up for Friday sees a plume of warmer air over France, and low pressure close to Ireland, which will drive some instability – and mildness.

An area of showery rain will move up from the south-west during the morning, some heavy bursts possible – though there is a 10% chance that it stays further east and therefore mostly dry. A few scattered heavy showers in the early part of the afternoon, say a 30% chance of catching one or two, though increasing sunny spells. Breezy, 14’C, maybe even a 15’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, a few showers around, down to around 9’C.

Saturday starts fairly cloudy – scattered showers will develop, perhaps heavy, with a chance of an hour or two of general rain roughly around the lunchtime period. A bit more in the way of sunshine in the afternoon, though still scattered showers around. 12’C or so. Fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 8’C.

Hazy sunshine for Sunday – a fairly pleasant early spring day all in all. Just a very small chance of a shower, but unlikely. Around 13’C, give or take. Cloud continuing to thicken overnight, but it should stay dry, bar the chance of the odd spot of light rain, 8’C.

Monday will be mostly cloudy but mild, as weather fronts try to push in from the west. Some hazy sunshine at times, perhaps a little light rain. Breezy, 13’C, maybe 14’C. The weather front crossing overnight bringing a bit of rain – timing uncertain but more likely in the second half of the night. Around 7’C.

By Tuesday we have high pressure strengthening over Europe, warming up the continent somewhat, but a succession of low pressure queuing in the Atlantic.

Tuesday itself sees some cloud, some sunny spells and the odd light shower – becoming breezy too. Still mild, 14’C or so. Cloudy overnight as weather fronts approach, breezy or windy.

From there weather fronts will try to cross – a bit of uncertainty as to when it will rain as the high pressure block will impede progress somewhat – but it should rain at various points Wednesday to Friday.

Temperatures generally between 12’C and 15’C, though depending on how the low pressure systems phase and the timing of weather fronts, it isn’t impossible that we could squeeze a quite warm day with hazy sunshine, say 16’C to 18’C.

Low pressure more likely in charge next weekend than not, and perhaps a little cooler again.

Suggestions that something colder could spread down from the north around the end of the month, but fairly low confidence on that.

Enjoy your weekend.…

Monday 13th March 2023

Cold for a couple of days, then mild, and staying changeable with rain/showers quite often.

Thanks to Christel for the photograph.

Tonight sees a band of showers crossing between roughly 11pm and 1am, with one or two showers either side. Still fairly windy, temperatures gradually falling as colder air moves back down, ending up around 2’C.

The general picture for Tuesday sees low pressure over Scandinavia, driving a northerly flow.

The day starts with a band of showers, roughly between 6am and 9am – maybe a bit of sleet/wet snow mixed in. Good spells of sunshine follow, reaching 9’C though feeling colder in the northerly-ish wind. One or two showers around for late afternoon and into the evening – catch a heavy one and you could get a wintry mix, but some places missing them altogether. Clear skies overnight and a widespread frost, down to around -3’C.

Wednesday starts sunny. Cloud will gradually thicken during the morning with patchy light/moderate rain arriving around mid/late afternoon. Reaching around 7’C and feeling fairly cold in the notable breeze. Showery light/moderate rain continuing during the evening, mostly dry after midnight – the odd patch of rain possible. Becoming windy again, though a bit milder, 9’C.

Thursday sees the tail of the weather front dangling over us all day – so mostly cloudy, bits of rain at times, perhaps some bright spells occasionally. Mild and windy, 12’C, maybe a tad more if we get a little brightness. Staying mostly cloudy overnight, the odd splash of light rain around. 10’C.

Friday is going to be a bit of a mish-mash of conditions, with low pressure close by over Ireland but also a plume of relative warmth over France. Generally the morning looks fairly cloudy, more sunshine in the afternoon but also a few showers. 14’C seems achievable – with enough sun it could be pleasant, though I’m not 100% confident on details. Showers possible overnight, though low confidence.

Most likely for Saturday we are looking at some sunny spells, with a fair scattering of showers, which could be on the heavy side. Likely on the mild side, somewhere between 12’C and 14’C.

Low confidence for Sunday, but slightly more likely either a spell of showery rain, or sunshine and showers.

Most likely next week is unsettled with further wind and rain, or showers, potentially heavy at times. Grab any spring glimpses when you can! Colder air perhaps spreading south again as the week goes on.…

Thursday 9th March 2023

The battle between cold and mild will continue for the next week, mild winning out more of the time – and rather unsettled.

Thanks to Debbie for the photograph.

This evening and overnight sees low pressure in charge and plenty of heavy showers – possibly very heavy before midnight, less showers later in the night. Breezy at times, around 9’C for much of the night but becoming colder by dawn.

The general picture for Friday sees an unsettled flow, with low pressure clearing to the east, another one ready to the west, with both colder and milder air trying to win the battle in between.

Friday starts with showery rain and sleet, as the cold air spreads back down – maybe some wet snow mixed in. Gradually becoming sunnier from late morning, though one or two showers around, possibly wintry. Cold, 5’C. Some fairly strong winds in the morning too. Mostly clear skies overnight and a sharp frost, down to around -4’C.

Sunny to start on Saturday, albeit a bit hazy. Cloud thickening from around lunchtime, some patchy light rain arriving by the evening. Cold, 6’C. Patchy light rain for the first half of the night, clear spells later, down to around 3’C.

Sunday looks generally bright with hazy sunshine. Much milder, 13’C, maybe 14’C. Showery rain spreading across in the evening and overnight, some heavy. Strong winds at times too. 12’C.

Low pressure still in charge on Monday, so it will be mostly cloudy with showery rain, perhaps heavy at times. Strong winds likely, gales possible. 12’C. Showery rain fading during the evening as it moves away – the cold air comes back down from the north and we’ll be down to around 2′ by dawn, perhaps a touch of frost.

Sunny spells and maybe a shower on Tuesday. Colder again, 7’C. Frost possible overnight.

The more likely outcome for Wednesday sees rain spread across from the west – perhaps preceded by sleet/snow for a short time.

And assuming so, then the next week or so will likely be unsettled with plenty of rain and wind, mostly mild with short cold spells.

However there is maybe a 20% chance that high pressure will become established instead, and we see generally colder and drier weather instead.…

Wednesday 8th March 2023 – Rain/Snow Update

I trust you all got some snow? A slushy covering here in NW London, pretty much to expectations.

We’ll continue with patchy sleet/snow this morning – mostly light, perhaps more light rain/drizzle as the morning progresses.

In the early afternoon, the next weather front moves up from the south-west. More likely it starts as rain or sleet (though maybe some more rural areas it starts as snow), and as it becomes heavier in late afternoon/early evening, it falls as snow.

Different areas will have different experiences – more urban areas more likely a slushing covering, maybe 1-2cm, more rural areas particularly further west, maybe 5cm. It could also fall as rain at times.

It’s very marginal call stuff so don’t be shocked if it is more snowy or rain than I suggest, and it will be localised in terms of snow amounts.

Further showery rain, sleet or snow tonight – showery rain tomorrow, some heavy.

Full update on Thursday evening.…

Monday 6th March 2023

A forecaster’s nightmare this week – thankfully I’m just doing this for fun! It will probably snow at some point(s) – but so much uncertainty right from the start.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

This evening and tonight sees a weather front slowly sink south, with bits and pieces of rain, occasionally quite heavy in the early hours, and in places (mostly with altitude) there could be some sleet/wet snow mixed in, early hours onwards. Getting down to 2’C by dawn.

Tuesday looks mostly cloudy with bits and pieces of mostly light rain, though maybe occasionally falling as sleet/snow, especially if there is anything a bit heavier than light rain. Some sunny spells later in the day. Notably cold for early March, 4’C. Overnight, the first in a series of weather fronts will try to push up from the south-west. Perhaps it stays to our south, but most likely it will bring a spell of snow (maybe rain/sleet at first). The heaviest currently looks like it will be a little further south than our region, but a slushy 1-2cm seems the more likely outcome by dawn – but don’t be too surprised if there is nothing, or it snows and doesn’t settle – that kind of thing. Becoming breezy, no higher than 1’C.

The general picture on Wednesday is the same as it will be all week – cold air pushing down from the north, but low pressure with milder air trying to push up from the south-west. Where they meet, heavy snow can fall, though further south than the battleground will be heavy rain. Hence why forecasting will be so difficult this week – the line between 1’C and snow, and 10’C and rain, could be as little as 50 miles.

Most likely, in the morning we’ll see patchy snow fade away, perhaps some light rain/sleet before it clears – then cloudy and cold, then the next weather front tries to push up from the south-west.

Again, it is possible that this stays to our south, but more likely it pushes this far north, perhaps it starts as rain/sleet depending on what time it arrives – which, shock horror, is also uncertain. If it arrives around 2/3/4pm then more likely it starts as rain and turns to snow as it gets heavier, but if it arrives in the evening (less likely) then more likely it starts as snow. Quite a lot of factors involved, so don’t be surprised if you just see rain, or get snow but it doesn’t settle – I’d hazard a guess at roughly 1-2cm widely, probably rather slushy. Around 4’C, but temperatures will drop as the rain/snow gets heavier – assuming, of course, that it doesn’t stay to our south!

That area of snow and maybe rain will clear overnight – some clear spells perhaps, a frost possible, down to around -1’C – before the next weather front approaches.

Thursday’s weather system looks like it will have pushed further north, so though in the morning it is slightly more likely to be showery sleet/snow than showery rain, in the afternoon it will be showery rain, some heavy, maybe very heavy. Becoming windy. Cold to start, but 10’C (ish) by the evening. Further heavy showers in the first part of the night, mostly dry and fairly cloudy after midnight, 8’C. Strong winds.

Friday starts windy – gales possible. Fairly cloudy though some sunshine possible. In the afternoon, the next weather front tries to push in from the south-west – which would bring rain but at this stage is pretty much 50/50 as to whether it makes it this far north, or stays to our south (with colder air digging south once more). Around 8’C. The cold air probably wins overnight, and pushes back south – though fairly low confidence. Otherwise, I don’t know – frost, rain, sleet, snow, dry, cloudy, clear – could be anything.

The weekend? Erm.

Saturday more likely back to the battleground between colder and milder – so maybe some bits of rain around as weather fronts push in, possibly some sleet/snow, more likely on the colder side of the spectrum.

Sunday more likely mild/very mild, though if so, expect a spell of rain at some point.

The more likely outcome for next week is changeable – rain/wind on some days, generally milder though one or two colder days could be mixed in.

Well, it was about time it got interesting!…

Friday 3rd March 2023

Spring is here but winter is coming – there are snow chances.

Thanks to Debbie for the photograph.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy and chilly. Most places escaping a frost, but there is a small chance of a few more sheltered spots getting a slight frost. Down to around 3’C.

Saturday will be mostly cloudy. A few bright spells, a small chance of a light shower but otherwise nothing happening. 7’C, maybe 8’C in a light northerly breeze. Fairly cloudy overnight – a few light/moderate showers dotted around, and chilly, down to around 3’C.

By Sunday, the northerly flow is starting to gather a little force, but also the Atlantic is starting to awaken far to our south-west.

Still plenty of cloud around but a bit more in the way of sunny spells. Some showers too, they should be light/moderate in nature. Feeling colder, 6’C tops. Some clear spells overnight, but also some cloud and still the odd shower possible. Down to around 0’C – a frost more likely than not, but will depend on cloud amounts.

Monday again looks fairly cloudy. Some bright spells at times, also some showers dotted around – more likely later in the day. A tad milder due to a low pressure system developing in the North Sea, 8’C. A band of showers developing and spreading south overnight – the back edge could be a little wintry in nature. Down to around 2’C by dawn.

Tuesday probably starts with the weather front still over the south, which could possibly be wintry in nature – will be a forecasting nightmare I suspect! One to worry about next week. Sunny spells will eventually follow, a small chance of a sleet/snow shower in the afternoon. Reaching around 5’C, but feeling notably cold. Likely clear skies overnight with a sharp frost, down to around -4’C – though very approximate.

From here, things become tricky. Low pressure systems from an awakened Atlantic will try to push in – and could be preceded by snow.

Wednesday is the very earliest this could happen – though more likely it stays to our south and we stay sunny and cold – around 5’C.

From then, details are impossible – and will depend on the track and timing of the low pressure systems.

We should get to a point by the weekend where it is much milder, but with heavy rain and maybe strong winds also. This is not certain, the cold air could win, but I’d suggest a 75% chance that mild and wet wins by the weekend.

But before that, there will be a battle between low pressure systems trying to push in from the south-west and the Arctic air pushing down from the north – where those meet, there will be heavy, possibly disruptive snow. More likely this battleground will happen in central or northern areas, but we are in the game – we could have a snow to rain event. Outside chance we could have a snow event on one day, followed by snow to rain the next day.

Said events could be on Thursday or Friday, or both – or maybe even Saturday. If you are pushing me for percentages, then a 30% chance of a temporary covering of slushy snow one day late next week, a 60% chance of snow falling at some point late next week.

Likewise it could just be rain, or maybe the cold air wins and the rain/snow stays over France.

Plenty of uncertainty as to the details, though the broad picture is interesting.

Enjoy the last of the boring weather for a while.…