Tuesday 28th February 2022

Fairly cold and fairly dry. But changes from Sunday (ish) thanks to the sudden stratospheric warming event.

Thanks to Chris for the photograph.

Sunny spells to start today, but rather cloudy from mid-morning onwards – still a few bright/sunny spells possible, also the odd light (ish) shower dotted around. 7’C, maybe 8’C but feeling chilly in the north-easterly breeze. Probably too much cloud tonight for a frost, though not impossible, down to around 3’C.

Wednesday continues in this easterly flow, with high pressure to our north – the jetstream very quiet.

Wednesday will be mostly cloudy. A few bright spells at times, the odd light shower around, but cloud is the theme. 7’C in the chilly north-easterly breeze. Cloudy for much of the night, but maybe some clear spells before dawn – a close call on a frost, down to around 1’C so a frost possible by dawn.

Thursday will see more in the way of sunshine. Still some cloud at times, but brighter than the previous two days. Around 8’C. Likely becoming cloudy once more overnight, so a frost unlikely but not impossible. Down to around 2’C.

Friday looks rather cloudy once more, though there should be some bright/sunny spells – especially later in the day. Around 8’C, give or take. A small chance of a light shower. More in the way of clear spells overnight, a frost likely assuming so, down to around -2’C.

Saturday looks more likely to be fairly sunny to start, more likely to be rather cloudy in the afternoon. The breeze switching to a more northerly direction. Temperatures around 7’C, maybe a tad more. Probably too much cloud for a frost overnight, but uncertain, down to around 2’C.

By Sunday, we likely end up in some form of northerly flow – possibly a harbinger of a significant cold spell, or possibly just something colder than normal. A little too early to be sure.

Fairly cloudy on Sunday, some sunny spells possible, also a few light (ish) showers around – they should be of rain but a wintry mix isn’t impossible. 5’C, maybe 6’C. Frost possible overnight – a small chance of a wintry shower.

The more likely outcome for next week is that this is a notable cold spell, with daytime temperatures around 3’C to 5’C – wintry showers will be possible and we could see snow falling at some point – settling is another matter entirely, especially for any length of time with the strengthening sun.

Maybe by the weekend after, we could see milder and wetter weather try to push up from the south-west – the jetstream by this point reinvigorated and providing plenty of rain to Mediterranean countries. And where rain meets embedded cold air – copious snow could fall somewhere – more likely central/northern Britain, but not impossible down here. A long way away though, and the mild/wet weather may well stay to our south.

Still possible that next week is just ordinary chilly – something kind of similar to this current week.

I’ll write the spring forecast either tomorrow or Thursday, the next full forecast will probably be Friday morning.…

Spring Weather Photograph Request

Spring starts this week – at least in terms of the calendar, if not the weather. Which means I need a spring photograph.


Usual requirements apply:

  1. It must feature spring weather. There are various types of spring weather that you can choose from – I’ll try to choose one that fits my forecast as best as possible, and I’ve hinted enough at what I think it will be!
  2. It must feature the local area.
  3. The length of the photograph must be longer than the height. Appreciate that some of you ignore this, which is fine if you just want to send the photograph anyway, but it won’t be chosen.

Whoever’s photograph I choose will adorn the forecast and also be the cover photograph on Facebook for the next 3 months.

And I will donate £15 to a charity of their choice. But please make it something the internet won’t start arguments about – fluffy kittens good, charities involved in politics bad. That kind of thing. I’ll contact you if I choose your photograph.

Please add them to the Facebook post or e-mail them.

The next full forecast will probably be Tuesday, as I’m out on Monday evening. So the spring forecast should be Wednesday or Thursday, depending on life – with the next full forecast on Friday. That’s the plan, anyway.…

Friday 24th February 2023

Fairly cold.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

Might be slightly shorter today as a late night at the theatre means that I have to try to do this before starting work…eek. Then again, the weather remains pretty boring and simple to write.

Today will be mostly cloudy, a weak weather front will bring a little bit of rain during the lunchtime period. Some sunny spells from around mid/late afternoon. 7’C in a northerly breeze. Some clear spells overnight, down to around 1’C – a frost probable, though a close call.

The theme for Saturday sees our resident high pressure area centred further north than it has been, between Iceland and Scotland, allowing a more easterly flow to pick up over the coming days.

Sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud. A chance of a light (ish) shower or two during the day, and fairly chilly in the breeze as it veers more easterly, 7’C. Clear spells overnight, a frost likely, down to around 0’C.

Sunday sees sunny spells with some cloudier periods. A few light showers scattered in the flow, they should be of rain but a wintry touch not impossible – the air high above is is very cold. Down on the ground, a chilly 6’C. Clear spells overnight, though cloudy at times. Down to around 0’C – a frost probable, though a chance it will be too cloudy for one.

Monday is very similar, some sunny spells, more likely in the morning. Quite a bit of cloud in the afternoon, one or two light (ish) showers around, likely of rain. Around 7’C. Probably a frost overnight, though uncertainty on cloud amounts.

Tuesday likely sees more cloud than sunshine, a few light showers in the flow as the chilly easterly breeze continues. Around 7’C. A frost not so probable overnight, as more cloud currently expected.

Wednesday to Friday will be more or less the same kind of conditions, chilly, some sunshine, some cloud – overnight frosts possible but dependent on there being some clear spells.

Light (ish) showers possible at times, though less so by Friday.

Next weekend is the very earliest that we could start to see cold/wintry impacts from the sudden stratospheric warming, though more likely conditions remain broadly similar for now.

It all depends on where high pressure blocking systems set up, which they should do further north across the northern hemisphere – meaning easterly or northerly winds more likely at our latitudes, and hence cold with snow possibilities.

However, some areas will end up on the mild/warm side of such high pressure blocking systems (remember the 20’C in February in 2019?) so there is no guarantee of cold and wintry weather.

More likely there will be a mixture of conditions in March, with cold weather dominating, though with the jetstream firing up and heading south across Europe, these low pressure systems may at times be further north over the UK, bringing rain – or maybe disruptive snow as rain hits the cold air. Also maybe we can sneak a few mild days in, depending on how low pressure systems develop and where the cold air goes.

Plausible that March is just somewhat colder than normal but wet and not wintry – not impossible that we end up with some very mild/warm weather, but as I mentioned, it depends on where blocking high set up, and mostly likely they set up in cold positions for the UK and Europe.

It should be a very interesting month of weather – very much the opposite of February’s borefest.…

Monday 20th February 2023

One more mild day then a switch to something colder – with a chance of proper cold in March, though that is a good 10 days away.

Thanks to Becky for the photograph.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy, no lower than around 7’C.

Tuesday is the last mild day for a while (possibly quite a long while). Mostly cloudy for much of the day, though by mid-afternoon we should see sunny spells develop. 11’C, maybe 12’C. Cloudy overnight with a few showers as a weather front pushes down from the north-west. 6’C.

A notable change for Wednesday as our resident high pressure system for the last month or so is now further west, allowing a weak northerly (ish) flow.

Cloudy to start with bits of occasional showery rain. This slowly easing east during the afternoon to be replaced by brighter skies. 8’C in a chilly northerly breeze. Some clear spells overnight, mostly earlier in the night – a weak weather front later in the night bringing some showers, though hit and miss as to whether you get any. Down to around 1’C – a frost probable in more sheltered spots, though a close call due to the later weather front.

Thursday starts cloudy with one or two showers around. Clearer skies with sunny spells and variable cloud will then spread down from the north for much of the rest of the day. Cool but nothing unusual, around 8’C, though the breeze making it feel chilly. Clear skies with a frost at first overnight, down to around -1’C, though more cloud towards dawn.

Friday looks often cloudy, though there will be a bit of sunshine at times. Mostly dry, though a chance of a shower. A northerly flow but reaching 10’C. A bit of uncertainty on cloud amounts overnight – a frost possible though it will need clearer skies. Somewhere between -2’C and 2’C, depending on cloud amounts.

Our high pressure is back over the UK by Saturday, though a little further north than it has been, allowing an easterly breeze.

Uncertainty on cloud amounts but likely more cloud than sunshine overall, though with some sunny spells. The easterly breeze making it rather chilly, 7’C or so. A frost possible overnight, though it depends on cloud amounts, roughly between -2’C and 2’C.

For Sunday – read Saturday.

The chilly but not especially cold easterly continues next week – perhaps a few light (ish) showers around early next week, otherwise a fairly cold wind, some cloud, some sunshine, overnight frost possible.

Maybe by next weekend we start to see impacts from the sudden stratospheric warming event that happened last week. More likely than not we get a colder than normal March, perhaps notably cold at some point with some wintry showers possible.

Quite how it evolves will take a little while to resolve, though certainly hints of a Beast From The…North being possible down the line.

Long way to go, and colder than normal could just mean 8’C for March – it takes something special to get something notably cold and wintry in the south during March. But we have just had something special in the stratosphere – so it is possible.…

Thursday 16th February 2023

Very mild and boring for a few more days – but a colder spell likely by the middle of next week.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy, a few clear spells at first, perhaps a spot of light rain at times, and becoming windy later. On the mild side, no lower than 9’C.

Our dominant high pressure remains close to our south for Friday, though low pressure systems to our north are closer.

It will be a cloudy day, a windy morning – some bits of light rain possible, more likely in the afternoon. Very mild, 13’C, maybe 14’C. Cloudy overnight, becoming fairly windy once more, some bits of light rain possible in the evening and again around dawn. No lower than 10’C.

Saturday will be mostly cloudy, breezy with occasional bits of light rain. Possibly a little brightness at times in the afternoon. Very mild again, 13’C, maybe 14’C. Cloudy at first overnight though that will move south and be replaced by clear spells. Still breezy, down to around 5’C.

Sunday looks bright with spells of hazy sunshine, some more general cloud at times. Around 12’C, give or take. Some clear spells at first overnight though generally cloudy from late evening onwards. Down to around 7’C.

Monday is uncertain on cloud amounts, more likely on the cloudier side though. However, if there is some sunshine in the afternoon it will be the closest to a spring feeling so far this year, temperatures reaching between 13’C and 15’C. It might be quite a while until it really does feel like spring though. Quite a while. Quite a bit of cloud overnight though there should be some clear spells, down to around 7’C.

Tuesday is probably the last mild day until a transition to something colder, though I’d stress a high level of general uncertainty in the models for the next week or so, whilst we are waiting for the impacts of the sudden stratospheric warming event. Again uncertain on cloud amounts, though more likely on the cloudier side. Temperatures somewhere between 10’C and 13’C.

Things get tricky then. Both the American model and the Met Office model send a cold front down on Tuesday night – so Wednesday and Thursday are much colder, say around 6’C, some showers around, possibly a wintry flavour.

However the European model, which tends to verify with slightly higher accuracy sends the cold air further west, and we stay in kind of mildish air (10’C or so) with a few showers also possible.

I’m kind of 50/50 as to the correct solution at the moment.

From Friday and into the weekend, the more likely solution would be high pressure over the UK, so temperatures around normal by day, frost/fog very possible overnight. This set-up the more likely general outcome for the beginning of March, though low confidence.

From there we await the response of the sudden stratospheric warming event. It has happened, or at least is currently happening, and normally takes 2-4 weeks to affect our weather down here.

So any time from 5th March onwards, more likely we see high pressure further north of the UK, more likely we see low pressure further south over France/Spain, but occasionally probably over the south of England.

And easterly winds becoming more likely, so on the cold side – with at least a small chance of something notably cold/wintry as March develops.

Assuming this happens, then colder spells with easterly or northerly winds also being more likely than normal during April. Urgh. And May. Urgh. With apologies for not being amused at a cold spring – I do normally try to stay objective.

Of course, it isn’t settled that the aforementioned more likely outcome happens – the least likely outcomes do happen sometimes, and it will be another week until the models have a decent handle on what the impacts of the SSW will be.

Enjoy your weekend!…

Monday 13th February 2022

A mild week ahead, with a mixture of sunshine, cloud and even a little bit of rain.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph – yes I’ve run out of photographs except for sunsets and frost, and I’m not expecting much frost this week.

Clear skies tonight, mist/fog forming in some places by dawn, and down to around 1’C – some places seeing a frost, especially more sheltered spots.

Tuesday sees high pressure remaining in control, as it has been for weeks, but now situated to our east, allowing a mild southerly flow – originating from north Africa (perhaps we’ll get some Saharan dust around).

Early fog patches will clear into long spells of sunshine. A little high cloud in the afternoon but otherwise pleasant for mid-February, 12’C, maybe 13’C. High cloud and a bit of a breeze should prevent fog/frost overnight, down to around 4’C.

Wednesday morning will be mostly sunny, some high cloud. A weak weather front will cross during the afternoon bringing cloud, and probably a short spell of rain, say 30 minutes to an hour roughly late afternoon – pretty limited but more than we’ve had for weeks. Mild, 13’C, maybe even a 14’C. Some clear spells at first overnight, but clouding over with some bits of showery rain after 2am. Down to around 6’C and quite windy.

Thursday looks cloudy with bits of showery and mostly light rain in the morning – some brightness in the afternoon, particularly later. Likely very mild, 14’C and breezy. Mostly cloudy overnight, especially after midnight. Becoming windy, the odd spot of light rain possible, around 10’C.

On Friday we have a bit of a battle with high pressure trying to push north at the same time as low pressure to our north tries to push south-east.

It will be mostly cloudy, quite windy but very mild, 14’C, maybe 15’C. The odd spot of light rain possible but most likely mostly dry. Likely cloudy overnight, a bit of uncertainty on temperatures but nothing cold.

Saturday is most likely cloudy and very mild, temperatures somewhere between 12’C and 15’C – a small chance of a little rain, but uncertain.

By Sunday, the mild air probably has left, so temperatures will be back down to normal, around 8’C. Probably a mixture of sunny spells and cloud, but cloud amounts uncertain at this stage.

Most likely high pressure remains in charge for next week, though positioning uncertain at this stage, and hence whether it will be normal temperatures with overnight frost/fog possibilities – or on the mild side.

There’s a chance of some colder weather before the end of the month, say around a 30% chance – unrelated to the sudden stratospheric warming event.

Said SSW event is happening this week, it will be a major event, but how it plays out down in the troposphere where our weather is, is another question. We should know better by the end of the week, or at least by next Monday’s forecast.

Certainly it increases the chance of high pressure to our north, pushing the jetstream south (likely very wet for Spain/Portugal), and also gives a greater chance of easterly winds – cold set-ups, with possible snow.

However it takes 2-4 weeks from the SSW for effects to be felt in the troposphere, so realistically we are looking at 5th March at the earliest for any impact, probably a little later, though also the effects go on for weeks.

Best I can say at the moment is a greater chance than normal of some notably cold weather in March/April at times, with a small chance of some very cold and wintry weather in March, ie 2013/2018.…

Thursday 9th February 2023

Milder but cloudier.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

Clear spells tonight though some high cloud, frosty, widely down to around -3’C – a bit lower in a few spots.

High pressure remains in control for Friday, centred not far to our south-west.

Bright with hazy sunshine for most of the day, some thicker cloud possible at times. 9’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, mist/fog possible, down to around 4’C.

Saturday looks mostly cloudy with a little brightness possible later in the afternoon. 11’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, mist/fog possible, down to around 3’C – give or take.

Sunday looks fairly cloudy, particularly in the morning but some bright spells will be possible at times. 10’C or so. Fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 4’C.

By Monday the high pressure is squeezing east, and this will give us a better chance of some sunny spells – though some uncertainty on cloud amounts. Around 11’C with a breeze. Fog/frost possible overnight – down to around 1’C.

Tuesday should be sunny after any early fog clears. Reaching around 12’C or so – almost kind of pleasant, for February anyway. Fog/frost possible overnight, down to around 1’C.

Wednesday probably remains sunny, maybe hazy, once any early fog clears. Again reaching around 12’C – though a bit of uncertainty with a weak weather front trying to push in from the west.

That weak weather front probably crossing Wednesday night or Thursday, bringing more in the way of cloud and perhaps some light rain.

Friday and into next weekend most likely high pressure re-establishes once more, continuing the dry weather – almost certainly in the mild zone, say 10’C to 13’C. Too far away to judge on cloud amounts, and also overnight fog/frost chances.

The possibility of very mild that I mentioned last time, now seems unlikely, but maybe a 10-20% chance.

Looking further ahead, a sudden stratospheric warming event now looks probable, perhaps likely, say an 80-90% chance. Such events can lead to significant cold spells, ie March 2013 or 2018’s Beast From The East. However they don’t guarantee it.

You should scrap anything I’ve previously said about expecting warmth in March.

The SSW is still a week away, and impacts in the troposphere normally take around 2-4 weeks to take effect.

I’d suggest cold easterly flows more likely than not during much of March and April – but all this is still tentative. The SSW needs to happen first, then we need to see what happened to the stratospheric vortex, and then we can have a better idea of whether we’ll have notable cold/snow here.

As always, I recommend ignoring the clickbait sensationalists in the media – you will see a lot of hype, if you haven’t already.

Also worth noting, the MJO (a different phenomenon) may also increase the chance of cold spells before the end of February. Interesting times ahead…cannot say I am keen on a cold spring, but weather will do what it will do.…

Monday 6th February 2023

Frost is back.

Thanks to Sue for the photograph.

Tonight sees clear skies with a frost – widely down to around -2’C, though sheltered spots a little colder. Freezing fog will form in some places by dawn.

High pressure remains in control this week (and probably almost all month). This week allowing for some cold nights, but maybe in time it re-orientates itself to allow for some mild weather, perhaps even fooling us with the idea of a very early spring – more on that later.

Fog patches in places to start the day, otherwise sunny – with long spells of sunshine developing for all. Reaching 7’C, maybe 8’C. Clear spells overnight and frosty, widely down to around -3’C, colder in more sheltered spots, and freezing fog forming in places – likely more widespread than the night before.

Wednesday starts foggy for many – this taking a bit of time to lift, but it should be sunny everywhere by lunchtime, or earlier. Mostly sunny in the afternoon, reaching 6’C, maybe 7’C. Clear skies overnight with a frost at first – down to around -1’C or so. Cloud thickening as the night goes on, as a weak weather front brings cloud from the north-west, maybe a spot of light rain.

Thursday starts cloudy, perhaps a spot of light rain. The weather front will clear around late morning, allowing hazy sunshine for the rest of the day. 8’C. A bit of uncertainty on cloud thickness overnight, but likely fairly high cloud so sufficiently thin for a frost – down to around -2’C.

Friday looks generally like hazy sunshine, temperatures reaching around 8’C. Some thicker cloud around overnight so probably not a frost, but a fairly close call so don’t be shocked if there is one. Down to around 2’C.

By Saturday high pressure should be positioned to allow a southerly-ish flow – a mild position (heatwave were it summer).

Some uncertainty on cloud amounts, but generally more likely cloudier than sunnier in the morning – with the reverse in the afternoon. Mild, somewhere between 10’C and 12’C – kind of almost pleasant. Frost and/or fog possible overnight.

Some uncertainty for Sunday – it will be dry and on the mild side, somewhere between 9’C and 12’C (well, unless overnight fog persists). But whether it will be cloudy or sunny or somewhere in between is uncertain – as is the overnight fog persisting question.

Monday likely still dry and mild-ish – otherwise uncertain.

Tuesday looks like it will see a weather front push down from the north-west – it might even bring a bit more than a spot of rain. Still mild.

Then the somewhat more likely outcome sees high pressure position itself to our south with a mild flow slightly more likely than not. Perhaps very mild, maybe even kind of quite warm and spring-like, at least relative for February – but that needs a fairly perfect set-up at this time of year, and more likely is normal or mild weather. Plausible that we could have an early taste of spring, but no more than that at this stage.

But don’t get carried away. There is an increasing chance that the coming stratospheric warming event, for around a week or so’s time could be a sudden stratospheric warming event (remember the stratosphere is way above us), which would greatly increase the chance of cold weather starting 2-4 weeks afterwards.

Still around a 50/50 chance, though confidence is increasing – and an SSW never guarantees cold for the UK, but it does increase the chances of blocking highs forming and persisting in areas that lead to cold weather, ie easterlies. So certainly the second half of March and good chunks of April, could well be on the cold side with wintry precipitation possible IF the SSW happens and leads to the polar vortex splitting.

Plenty of if’s, as usual – though in a week or so, we may have a good idea what spring will be like.…

Friday 3rd February 2023

Staying mostly dry – mild at first but becoming somewhat colder from Sunday.

Thanks to Debbie for the photograph.

Some hazy brightness at first today, but mostly cloudy otherwise. Mild, 12’C. A few clear spells overnight, mostly early on, but cloudy most of the night, 7’C or so.

High pressure remains in control to our south on Saturday – it will be on the scene all week, but will vary position a bit.

It will be mostly cloudy all day – a little brightness at times, but the exception to the rule. Fairly mild, 11’C. Cloudy overnight, a weak weather front sinking south-east may bring a little light rain around midnight, give or take, clear skies will follow. Colder by dawn, when it will be down to around 2’C.

Sunday will be bright with hazy sunshine. A northerly breeze making it feel on the cold side, 7’C. A frost likely overnight, though a little uncertainty as there will be some high/mid level cloud around, but most likely we’ll get down to around -2’C. A small chance of fog by dawn.

Monday may start foggy – uncertain at this stage. Otherwise generally similar to Sunday, bright with hazy sunshine at times. Reaching around 7’C, though a little less if fog formed and lingers into the day. Frost or fog likely overnight, perhaps both, and down to around 0’C – though it could easily be lower, especially if no fog.

By Tuesday we are in between high pressure areas – one to our south-west and on over Europe to our east. Interestingly one of the main models had a Beast From The East style scenario for next week, which seemed unlikely to me (hence I never mentioned anything on Monday’s forecast, even about a “small chance” – it has now dropped it. But there will be a little bit of a continental influence.

If it was foggy overnight, then this may well take a while to clear – otherwise it looks bright with some hazy sunshine, some cloud. Temperatures between 3’C and 6’C – lower in the range if fog formed and was slow to clear. Fog and/or frost likely overnight, down to around -2’C, give or take.

Wednesday again may start foggy, and it may take a while to clear. Otherwise it should be fairly sunny, some cloud possible. Temperatures between 3’C and 6’C – lower in the range if fog formed and was slow to clear. More likely frosty overnight than not.

Thursday onwards and into next weekend, most likely remains under the influence of high pressure. Most likely it remains mostly on the chilly side, somewhere between 4’C and 7’C, most likely there is more overnight frosts, perhaps fog.

At some point there may also be a weak weather front, say Thursday or Friday, bring more in the way of cloud and maybe some light rain.

Certainly plausible that it becomes more changeable from around mid-month (which would make my longer range expectations for February completely wrong, lol), with the jetstream digging further south at times, but I am unconvinced at the moment.

Interestingly all the background signals, as I read them, point to a wet and mild February – QBO, the current recovery of the stratospheric polar vortex, La Niña and the current phase of the MJO. Yet the weather isn’t matching this.

Also of interest is that models are once again suggesting a stratospheric warming event – one happened recently but it wasn’t sufficiently strong to affect our weather patterns – could the next one in a couple of weeks affect our weather? Worth keeping an eye on, as it could well mean a cold Easter – or around then.

I’m already at the point of looking for spring…so not something I’d welcome. But also there remains suggestions that March will be warmer than normal.

Enjoy your weekend, I better do some work…well…attend some meetings anyway.…