Monday 30th January 2022

High pressure remaining in control – sunny at times, cloudy at times – little in the way of rain.

Thanks to Chris for the photograph. Hopefully this level of sunshine isn’t too misleading!

Clear spells at first tonight, more cloud after midnight as a weak weather front pushes south-east. Down to around 2’C.

Tuesday sees high pressure in charge, close to our south-west – the jetstream and associated low pressure systems towards Scotland.

It will start rather cloudy, a little patchy light rain possible. Sunny spells from around late morning onwards, and reaching around 10’C, maybe 11’C. Breezy, verging on quite windy in the afternoon. Clear spells overnight, though likely too much breeze for a frost, down to around 3’C.

Wednesday looks reasonably sunny in the morning, some cloud. More cloud in the afternoon but still some sunny spells. Breezy and reaching 10’C just about. Fairly cloudy overnight though some clear spells, particularly later on. Down to around 4’C.

Thursday looks rather cloudy – there should be a bit of hazy sunshine at times, we might squeeze a little light rain/drizzle at other times. Mild, 11’C, maybe 12’C and still breezy. Fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 7’C.

By Friday, high pressure centred closer to the UK, and dragging air in from more tropical sources – albeit highly modified over the Atlantic Ocean.

Uncertain on cloud amounts – but more likely to be on the cloudier side than sunnier. Reaching around 12’C. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight – down to around 5’C.

Again uncertain on cloud amounts for Saturday, and again more likely to be cloudier than sunnier – but even assuming cloudier then we should expect some sunny spells. 10’C or so. Suggestions of a weak weather front sinking south overnight, bringing cloud and the odd spot of light rain.

Sunday is again uncertain on cloud amounts though this time more likely on the sunnier end of the scale. Temperatures somewhere between 8’C and 10’C. Overnight frost possible.

High pressure likely remains in control for next week, perhaps with a cooler feel – overnight frosts and/or fog more likely.…

Thursday 26th January 2023

High pressure remains close by, so mostly dry bar weak weather fronts, temperatures around normal.

Pretty uneventful really.

I’ve had a pleasing influx of photographs recently – thanks to Clare for this one – and apologies if I haven’t thanked everyone, I do look at them all and try to use the most fitting for the coming forecast.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy, down to around 2’C – maybe a spot of light rain.

High pressure in control for Friday, though situated to our west.

A cloudy start but we will see increasing amounts of sunny spells as the day goes on. Around 7’C in a light breeze. Clear spells and frosty overnight, down to around -2’C. Fog possible.

Saturday may start foggy or with low cloud – this taking a while to clear though sunny spells will follow, with variable amounts of cloud. Around 5’C. Clear spells at first, down to around 0’C with a frost forming in places – but cloud thickening in the second half of the night as a weak weather front spreads down from the north, bringing a little patchy light rain.

Sunday looks mostly cloudy though a tad milder at around 8’C. A few sunny breaks possible, the odd spot of light rain also possible – and the wind picking up a bit later. Cloudy overnight as another weak weather front spreads down, giving a little patchy light rain at times, down to around 4’C and breezy.

Monday starts fairly cloudy. It will be a day of generally increasing sunny spells. Reaching around 8’C though a chilly northerly (ish) breeze. Clear spells at first overnight, cloud tending to thicken later in the night with a breeze. 50/50 call as to whether there is a touch of frost, down to around 1’C.

Suggestions of another weak weather front sinking south during Tuesday, probably in the morning, bringing cloud and some patchy light rain – milder too, around 10’C, maybe 11’C. Sunny spells to follow. Variable cloud and breezy overnight, probably no frost, down to around 3’C.

Wednesday looks more like a north-westerly flow – high pressure still very much in control to our south-west.

Sunny spells probable, maybe a shower or two in the flow, and fairly windy. Around 8’C, give or take.

Current suggestions for Thursday and Friday, are that high pressure moves over the UK – and the source of air may well be from Africa, albeit having travelled over the Atlantic Ocean around the high pressure block – so mildish though nothing exceptional, say 9’C to 11’C. Uncertain on cloud/sunshine amounts at this stage. Frost/fog possible, though depending on exact positioning of the high pressure.

Likely still dry and quite mild next weekend.

Not sure where we go from here. My previous assumption was that February would become more unsettled though that is a bit more up in the air than it was.

There is a notable warming event in the stratosphere but I’m not expecting it to have much or any impact down here, at least for our area of the world – but cannot yet rule out it being an SSW with cold weather impacts, maybe 5-10% chance tops.

Also the MJO (pattern of thunderstorms in the Indian Ocean), I had thought was conducive to a wet and windy spell followed by a chance of a cold spell late February – but perhaps the strength means the teleconnections are the other way around? I tend to only take limited notice of the MJO as a forecasting tool, but it seems to have validated more this winter, at least from my limited understanding.

So, erm, not sure for the rest of February. Give me a few more days and a fair more model runs!

I guess for the week or so after next weekend (w/c 6th February) I could summarise my thoughts as unsettled or somewhat unsettled still the slight favourite, mildish and dry the slightly less likely outcome – cold with chances of wintry showers much less likely, but maybe a 5-10% chance.

Have a pleasant weekend.…

Monday 23rd January 2023

High pressure remaining in control for the next week, so staying fairly cold and mostly dry, though some variations in theme.

Thanks to Matthew for the photograph.

Clear skies at first tonight will see a frost and temperatures down to around -2’C – generally colder the further west you are. Cloud will gradually spread across from the east later in the night, so temperatures may tick back up to around 1’C by dawn – some fog patches forming also.

High pressure remains in control for Tuesday, stretching from the Atlantic through to Russia, though will tend to edge west at times during the week.

Tuesday starts cloudy, with some fog in places, more likely further west. There should be sunny spells in the afternoon, though some uncertainty. Remaining fairly cold, 5’C. Clear skies at first overnight, down to around -3’C and fog forming widely.

Fog will clear on Wednesday morning but it will remain mostly cloudy as a couple of weak weather fronts push south-east. Some patchy light rain at times in the afternoon and early evening, though don’t be too surprised if you stay dry. A bit less cold, 7’C though a northly breeze picking up. Clear skies overnight, down to around 0’C so hit and miss with a frost.

Thursday sees the breeze swinging to the north-east and it will feel pretty raw. Sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud, the odd scattered light shower and reaching around 6’C. Likely too much breeze and cloud overnight for a frost, though a close call, down to around 1’C.

Friday morning looks rather cloudy. There should be more in the way of sunny spells in the afternoon. Around 6’C, a lighter breeze. A frost possible at first overnight, but uncertain due to a weak weather front likely pushing south-east overnight, which will bring cloud and a bit of patchy light rain – but uncertain on the timing of this.

Saturday generally looks rather cloudy, the odd bit of light rain possible at times, more likely in the morning. Temperatures around 7’C. A frost possible overnight, though uncertain at this stage.

On Sunday, it looks like a more north-westerly flow sets up. Uncertain on cloud amounts at this stage, most likely dry but the wind picking up. Around 8’C. Suggestions of a weak weather front pushing south overnight, bringing a little showery rain.

Next week looks more changeable, with at least some rain or showers at times, though some brighter weather too. Temperatures more likely staying roughly in the range of 5’C to 9’C and it should be windy at times. A short-lived colder northerly flow very possible for a day or so within this pattern.

The trend should be for something milder and more unsettled for the first half of February.…

Thursday 19th January 2023

Fairly cold and mostly dry, with overnight frosts.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

Mostly clear skies tonight though a bit of a breeze will stop temperatures falling too far, down to around -2’C. A small chance of one or two fog patches, though most places will stay clear.

For Friday we start to see high pressure building over the UK and to our east, diverting weather systems well to the north of the UK.

It will be mostly sunny, just a bit of cloud at times and temperatures a tad less cold, 5’C. Clear skies overnight, freezing fog forming in a few places though more likely it stays clear. Frosty, widely down to around -2’C – a bit lower in more sheltered spots.

Saturday will be mostly sunny for most areas, just a bit of cloud at times and around 5’C. If freezing form formed overnight, then it will likely be slow to clear and temperatures will be lower. Freezing fog more likely to form overnight than previous nights, down to around -3’C – lower in more sheltered spots.

Sunday probably starts foggy, no guarantee but more likely so, and assuming so, it will take some time to clear – maybe not until the afternoon. Limited sunshine in the afternoon. Reaching around 3’C, though if fog hangs around into the afternoon, your area may not reach above 0’C. A weak weather front to the west brings some uncertainty overnight, but more likely freezing fog forms once more, temperatures down to around -3’C – maybe lower.

Monday remains settled – probably freezing fog to start, which will likely take a fair amount of time to clear – sunny spells during the afternoon. Temperatures somewhere between 1’C and 4’C, depending on how long any fog takes to clear. A bit more uncertain overnight, though slightly more likely temperatures below 0’C with fog and/or frost possible – perhaps a bit milder and cloudier though.

High pressure remains in control for Tuesday, stretching from the Atlantic right into Russia.

Not especially high confidence for Tuesday, but more likely on the cloudy side, perhaps a little light rain, and temperatures less cold, say 6’C. Uncertain overnight – it could be chilly with a frost or cloudy with bits of light rain.

Suggestions of a weather front sinking south on Wednesday bringing some rain – not too much though. Timing uncertain at this stage, probably a bit milder.

High pressure likely remains in control for the rest of next week and into next weekend – perhaps into the early part of the week after but that is less certain.

Most likely we’ll see temperatures a little below average with overnight frosts, perhaps fog at times but otherwise reasonable amounts of sunshine by day. Maybe trending a bit milder by the weekend.

My thoughts for February remain for a split month – a spell of wet and mild weather in the first half, with a drier second half. Though I’m starting to feel that the drier second half, may also now be more likely colder.

Still keeping an eye on the stratosphere (the atmosphere above our level, the troposphere) – there is a warming event expected by the end of January. So far, I’d suggest it is not likely to be a sudden stratospheric warming, and therefore significant enough to drastically change our weather patterns down here (ie 2018’s Beast From the East or 2013’s cold and snowy March), but it’s certainly possible. Still think an SSW is around a 25% chance.

The warming event can still affect our weather even if it isn’t an SSW, and could raise concerns of a cooler spring. Too early to judge though. I certainly am no longer confident of a warmer than normal March! Back on the fence I sit for spring, until we know what the stratospheric warming event plays out.

Have a good weekend.…

Monday 16th January 2023

A cold week ahead with some sunshine and some overnight frosts. It looks like it will be dry, but it is the kind of set-up where little features can pop up at short notice to bring wintry showers.

It’s a good job I’ve kept some of the unused photographs from December’s cold spell – thanks to Tracy for this one.

Tonight sees clear skies at first, some high/mid-level cloud later in the night. Frosty, widely down to around -4’C – perhaps as low as -6’C in the most sheltered spots.

For Tuesday and the next few days we are in a cold northerly (ish) flow, with low pressure in charge.

If it were spring onwards, then there would be plenty of showers but there is always minimal convection over land in winter, so instead it will be dry. Hazy sunshine due to some high/mid-level cloud over the south of the UK, though tending to be sunnier later. Cold, 3’C. Clear spells overnight, though a weak feature may bring a bit of cloud and the odd scattered light snow shower later in the night – no higher than a 20% chance, though if so expect it rather icy by dawn. Down to around -2’C or so, with a bit more of a breeze.

Wednesday sees sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud. It should be dry – cannot totally rule out a light wintry shower. Around 4’C and breezy. Mostly clear skies overnight and frosty, down to around -2’C.

Thursday remains cold but sunny – a little bit of cloud at times and again a light wintry shower not impossible, though most likely dry. Around 4’C with a light breeze at most. Clear skies overnight and frosty – the lighter winds means temperatures will fall further, roughly in the range of -3’C to -5’C. Some high cloud probable by dawn.

Friday has a hint of uncertainty as a weather front tries to push in from the west, though with high pressure building close to our east, it will struggle. Most likely, the weather front stays to our west and decays, and we stay sunny or hazy, and it remains cold. 4’C, maybe 5’C. Most likely a cold and frosty night, roughly down to around -3’C but could be 2-3’C either side. Small chance of fog, also small chance of something cloudier with temperatures above freezing.

By Saturday we have some form of battle forming, with weather fronts trying to push in from the west once more, but high pressure building over the UK and up through Scandinavia.

Fine margins for the weekend, but the slightly more likely outcome is that we remain in the cold and sunny air mass – and the milder, cloudy and damp weather is close to our west. Assuming so we’ll be looking at temperatures around 4’C. Fine margins again overnight, but more likely we remain in the cold air mass, so frosty and around -3’C – perhaps some fog.

An even closer call between the two air masses for Sunday, so my best guess is that maybe there is a bit of mixing out of the cold, and some more cloud around, perhaps some drizzle and around 5’C. Low confidence on details though – that cold block to the east could easily become more established.

High pressure likely to be over or close to the UK next week, so often dry – though I would have thought perhaps one weather front may cross early in the week.

Positioning of said high pressure uncertain at this stage, so we could be looking at something cold or more normal in terms of temperatures – perhaps we’ll vary between colder and milder air masses. Overnight frost and/or fog will be possible too. If a colder air mass, I wouldn’t rule out some light wintry showers.…

Friday 13th January 2023

Staying fairly unsettled, though the pattern is changing to something colder – the jetstream will shift on Sunday to come from a more north-westerly direction – instead of a more south-westerly/westerly direction of late.

And there will be much less rain after Saturday – though still some showers around and they could fall as sleet or snow.

Thanks to Jessica for the photograph.

Not too bad a day today, sunny spells, some bits of cloud floating around – a small chance of a light/moderate shower. Quite windy, 9’C. Clouding over in the evening as the next area of low pressure moves in – with outbreaks of rain from roughly around midnight onwards, some heavy. Windy, particularly so by dawn, low’s of 5’C before the rain arrives, around 10’C by dawn.

Saturday sees low pressure in charge, but with colder air ready to spread down from the north-west.

It will start wet and windy, with some fairly heavy heavy and strong gusts of wind. Gradually during the morning the rain will become patchier and lighter, and by the afternoon we’ll see sunny spells. 12’C during the morning but notably cooler as the afternoon goes on. Clear spells overnight and variable cloud – cold but too windy for a frost, down to around 3’C.

Sunday looks fairly sunny, though some cloud at times, and also the odd scattered shower – difficult to be sure on where showers will be at this stage, so consider it around a 30% chance of a couple of showers – they should be of rain, but a wintry touch not impossible. Cold, breezy and around 6’C. Suggestions that an area of heavy showers will form and cross either evening or overnight on Sunday, but highly uncertain right now – it may not develop or it may develop but be further south than us. If this occurred, it could have a wintry back edge. Temperatures roughly down to around 2’C overnight, but very approximate.

Monday is more likely cold and sunny, with a small chance of a wintry shower – though there is some uncertainty due to Sunday evening’s possible developing system. Around 4’C. A frost likely overnight, with temperatures down to somewhere between -1’C and -5’C. Wintry showers not impossible.

Tuesday is cold with low pressure in control.

Sunny spells likely, wintry showers possible, temperatures around 3’C at best. A small chance of a general area of wintry precipitation instead – though this now looks more likely to head to France. Most likely clear spells with a frost overnight, down to around -2’C to -4’C.

Wednesday remains pretty much the sane, sunny spells likely, wintry showers possible and reaching around 3’C. Clear spells overnight, a small chance of a snow shower, down to around -3’C with a widespread frost.

Thursday should be the last day of the northerly. Sunny spells probable, some cloud at times, a small chance of a shower but most likely of rain by this point. 4’C, maybe 5’C but a cold northerly breeze picking up. Probably another frost overnight, down to around -2’C – though a weather front should be arriving from the west towards dawn, but timing uncertain as it is a week away.

Friday should see a weather front crossing with outbreaks of rain, perhaps preceded briefly with some sleet/wet snow. Around 6’C, give or take.

The more likely outcome for next weekend and into the week after is for high pressure to build over the UK, or very close to, which will mean mostly dry weather bar the odd weaker weather front – perhaps fog, perhaps frost. Uncertain at this stage as to whether it means a milder/average or a colder air mass.

My general thinking for February is unsettled first half, settled second half, though fairly low confidence right now, unless a sudden stratospheric warming event occurs.

Still no higher than a small chance of a sudden stratospheric warming event in early February – so I’d extrapolate from that no higher than a 10-15% chance of a “Beast From The East” type event mid-late February. I’m happy to discount the chances and look forward to some pleasant warmth in early spring instead.

Have a good weekend.…

Monday 9th January 2023

Staying unsettled this week, but hints of something a bit colder and a bit drier towards the weekend and into next week.

Thanks to Tina for the photograph.

Clear skies to start tonight, chilly, down to 2’C for a time. Cloud thickening later in the night with rain arriving around dawn, or shortly before.

Tuesday sees low pressure remain in control, with the jetstream crossing the UK – not especially strong, but sufficient to keep us unsettled.

The morning will be wet and windy, some fairly heavy rain at times. Remaining mostly cloudy in the afternoon, some patchy light rain at times, before the evening sees the associated cold front sweep across with around 2-3 hours of rain – which for a short time should be very heavy, say 15 minutes or so of this. Mild, 12’C. Fairly clear skies will follow overnight once the rain clears, a passing light-ish shower possible, no lower than around 5’C.

Wednesday sees sunny spells and showers in the morning. A more organised band of heavy/very heavy showers will cross in the afternoon, with gusty winds and a small chance of some hail. A cooler feel, just about squeezing 9’C. Clear skies for a time in the evening, down to around 4’C, before the next area of rain arrives around midnight, give or take, which will give 3-5 hours of rain, probably heavy.

Thursday will be cloudy with more rain at times – rain more likely in the afternoon, but some uncertainty over exactly how it develops. Mild and fairly windy, 11’C. Clear spells with the odd passing shower possible overnight, down to around 5’C.

Friday actually looks fairly sunny. A bit of cloud around, I cannot rule out showers developing and it will still be windy…oh and on the cool side too at 8’C. Cloud thickening overnight with rain likely at some point – though a little uncertainty over how this develops.

Saturday is a bit uncertain – generally the picture is that we’ll move from wet and mild, to colder and sunnier – but quite when the transition happens is uncertain. So it may be colder but sunny from the off – but it could be wet and mild to start, with the colder air arriving any time during the day, even not until evening.

Sunday looks like a colder northerly (ish) flow. Sunny spells at times, but some showers possible – any heavy ones could even fall as sleet or snow, or at least have some mixed in. Around 6’C. A frost probable overnight.

Monday likely remains on the cold side, but otherwise weather conditions are uncertain.

Overall next week looks drier, but there should still be some rain at some points.

Next forecast will be on Friday (I think), as I’m going out Thursday evening. Enjoy the rain!…

Thursday 5th January 2023

Unsettled for the next week, but maybe drier after.

Thanks to Paul for the photograph.

This evening will be cloudy with the odd splash of light rain, with a short band of heavyish rain crossing a little after midnight, clear skies following. 11’C during the cloud and rain, but getting down to around 6’C once it clears.

Friday starts sunny. High cloud will spread across from the west, and gradually it will become hazier. Some cloudier spells in the afternoon with the odd scattered shower. Reaching around 11’C with the wind picking up later. Bits of showery rain in the evening and overnight, though the main band of rain staying to our west until around dawn, windy, 11’C.

By Saturday we have a huge area of low pressure to the west of Scotland – it cannot make quick progress due to a block of high pressure over Scandinavia/Russia – but it will have the force to overcome the block.

Saturday morning sees rain and strong winds, clearing around midday or early afternoon. Sunny spells and scattered heavy, blustery showers will follow – remaining windy but less so than during the morning, and reaching around 10’C. Remaining windy overnight, with variable cloud, the odd shower blowing through also. Down to around 6’C.

Sunday continues in the same theme. Some sunny spells, but plenty of cloud and plenty of showers – some heavy, perhaps with hail and/or thunder, even a small chance of something wintry mixed in if you get a really potent shower. Around 8’C. The odd shower possible overnight, but mostly a case of clear spells, and chilly, down to around 3’C.

Monday sees low pressure drift away, leaving us in cooler air, with sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud and still the odd shower possible, but they should be fairly light if you catch one. 7’C and still quite windy. Clear skies and chilly overnight – cloud thickening later.

Tuesday may start bright, but the next band of rain will swiftly arrive, with a good 6 or so hours of rain, some heavy. Chilly to start but 12’C by late afternoon – fairly windy once more. Further showers likely to follow either in the evening or overnight.

Wednesday looks like sunny spells and blustery showers, possibly heavy showers. Windy and around 8’C or so.

Probably another spell of rain on Thursday or Friday, though by this time I’ve lost confidence over how low pressure systems develop and when/where they track. An outside chance of something wintry mixed in, and I do mean outside chance.

From there the chance of dry spells increases – high pressure should be building close to or over the UK. No more details other than that – certainly could be on the cold side, with overnight frost/fog, though nothing unusually cold is expected.

Dry weather should dominate for at least 7-10 days, though still the odd band of rain will remain possible.

February still looks like it will be a wet month, at least for a good chunk, and more likely so for the first half – and this wet spell may start by the end of January.

Still fairly hopeful for spring, with high pressure close at times, there should be some decent sunny, warm weather at times.

Of course, we still need to get through January before this is any more than a guide – should a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event occur, then all bets are off for February and onwards. There is a warming event currently in the stratosphere, but it isn’t sudden, it will only move the stratospheric vortex and maybe weaken it a bit – but the projected move of the vortex, to my understanding (it is complex stuff that I only vaguely follow), just means a wet and windy February is more likely.

Weakening the vortex does mean that a second warming event, if one happens, may be more likely to succeed as an SSW. But a second warming event wouldn’t happen for 2-3 weeks from now at the earliest. One to watch, but at the moment, I’d assume no Beast From The East (or similar) for February.

Just a reminder – the stratosphere is the atmospheric layer above where we reside which is the troposphere – so these are events that happen miles above us! Yet still affect our weather down here – significantly.

I wish you a chilled weekend.…

Monday 2nd January 2023

Happy New Year, I guess! Very much back to normal in terms of weather, with the jetstream heading towards the UK – bands of rain some days, sunshine other days.

Thanks to Chris for the photograph.

Tonight sees clear spells to start, a slight frost in more sheltered spots as it gets down to around 1’C. Cloud thickening after midnight, becoming quite windy and temperatures creeping up once more.

A pretty standard set-up to our weather by Tuesday with high pressure to our south over Europe, low pressure to our west, heading our way.

It will be cloudy all day with bits and pieces of showery rain. It won’t be raining all day, kind of stop start rain, sometimes quite heavy (ish) but often fairly light/moderate. Windy, particularly late afternoon and into early evening, 12’C. The showery bits of rain continue overnight, and it remains quite windy and around 12’C.

Wednesday starts pretty cloudy, but the sun will break through as the morning goes on. Generally a mixture of sunny spells and cloudy spells after, one or two light (ish) showers dotted around, still quite windy and mild, 12’C, maybe 13’C. Clear spells overnight, though cloud thickening towards dawn, down to around 8’C.

Thursday starts cloudy as the next weather front moves across – though little in the way of rain this time, the rain more focused towards north-west UK. So generally cloudy here in the morning, occasional bits of rain but often dry. Some spells of hazy sunshine in the afternoon, though the odd spot of light rain still possible. Still quite windy, still mild, 12’C, maybe 13’C. Cloud thickening overnight, a band of rain crossing giving a couple of hours of rain, briefly heavy perhaps, clear skies before dawn and down to around 6’C.

Friday sees a ridge of high pressure over the UK – interestingly high pressure also building over Scandinavia, which you may recall happened before our notable cold spell in December – though I think now there is far too much energy in the Atlantic for it to be able to extend west. For now, anyway, but one to watch.

So Friday should be a pleasant enough day, sunny to start, high cloud making it hazy from roughly lunchtime onwards. 9’C or so. I say should, as I’m not 100% confident – perhaps the overnight weather front sticks doesn’t clear as quickly as is currently likely. Cloud thickening overnight with some showery rain arriving at some point. Becoming windy, but milder again – 10’C.

Saturday probably sees a band of rain cross west to east, followed by sunny spells and the odd shower – but timing currently uncertain on the rain. 10’C and windy.

Sunday sees low pressure in charge, and cooler air in the mix again. Sunny spells and scattered, blustery showers – possibly heavy. 8’C and windy, particularly gusty in showers.

Monday likewise should remain cool and windy, with a mixture of sunshine and showers – the frequency of which will depend on the position of low pressure.

Likely it remains changeable next week, perhaps something cooler and drier by the weekend, or roughly around mid-month, but not a particularly strong signal.…