Well, the models have resolved the complex situation for now, and everything looks – normal. Yes, there’s rain and fairly average temperatures.

Thanks to Chris for the photograph.

Today is a mostly cloudy day. Early mist/fog patches will clear, there will be a little showery rain in the morning, and some brightness in the afternoon – but cloud is the main theme. Maybe the odd bit of showery rain in the afternoon too. Mild and breezy, 11’C. Mostly cloudy tonight, the odd spot of light rain possible, some mist/fog patches forming later, down to around 6’C.

The general set-up by Friday sees colder air trying to push down from the Arctic, but there is too much forcing from Atlantic systems, driven along by the jetstream. Milder air wins…for now.

Friday morning sees a band of heavy rain spread north-east, perhaps very heavy at times – around 4 hours of rain in total. Brighter from around lunchtime, maybe late morning, but a couple of heavy showers around after the main rain band clears – mostly sunny by mid/late afternoon. Around 11’C and breezy. Variable amounts of cloud overnight, the odd shower possible, down to around 6’C.

Christmas Eve looks fairly sunny, albeit with a lot of high cloud – so at least somewhat on the hazy side. Breezy and around 11’C. A few clear spells overnight, mostly at first, otherwise rather cloudy with a small chance of a shower. No lower than 9’C.

Christmas Day is still quite uncertain – but it won’t snow! The base case is for it to be fairly cloudy, breezy with a few scattered showers. However it looks like another little low pressure is going to develop and push up from the Bay Of Biscay – whether this crosses England or is further east over the continent is uncertain. So assume a 40% chance of a spell of heavy rain instead. Around 10’C. Colder air will push down from the north-west overnight, though timing on this uncertain – generally a mixture of clear spells, cloudy spells and the odd scattered shower, but how minimum temperatures anywhere from 2’C to 8’C.

For Boxing Day we are looking at good sunny spells, a little cloud but colder again, around 6’C and breezy. Clear skies at first, a frost possible but cloud thickening from the west later in the night. Down to around 1’C.

Tuesday looks rather cloudy as weather systems try to push in from the west – the main rain likely staying to our north and west, but some patchy light rain possible at times – otherwise rather cloudy, occasionally bright. Milder, around 9’C or so, and windy. Generally cloudy overnight – bits of rain probable.

Wednesday looks mild and windy, with a band of heavy rain spreading across at some point. This is all pretty normal now, isn’t it?

Uncertain where we go from here. Attempts at pushing cold air down from the north and/or building high pressure blocks close to our east are certainly possible – but whether they will be enough to overcome the re-invigorated jetstream that is now much closer to the UK, is uncertain.

Thursday and Friday next week more likely to see some showers or rain, New Year’s Eve perhaps a signal for something drier to develop and going into the start of 2023, though confidence fairly low.

And that is it for me until after Christmas. The next forecast will either be Tuesday or Wednesday next week, unless anything major changes in the meantime.

I wish you all a Merry Christmas – and if you don’t celebrate Christmas, then enjoy the long weekend.…

Autumn is back. But for how long?

Warning – this forecast gets uncertain very quickly!

Thanks to Nicola for the photograph. Albeit from a couple of months ago – I don’t have any recent rain photographs!

Tonight sees showery rain, some light, some heavy and it will stay mild and windy. 12’C.

Low pressure remains in charge for Tuesday, as it will all week with the jetstream having moved somewhat north – albeit it is rather weak.

Tuesday starts cloudy, there may be a little light rain still to clear too. This will push east to leave a mostly sunny day, just a bit of cloud around. 10’C. Clear skies at first and chilly, down to around 3’C though the odd patch of frost. Clouding over from the west later in the night, with some scattered bits of showery rain possible before dawn.

Wednesday morning sees a band of showery rain crossing first thing, say 3 hours of rain. Sunny spells follow. Cooler, 8’C. Cloud thickening again overnight with some showery rain – down to around 4’C at first but picking up a bit after.

That is already as far as I can go in terms of details.

Thursday and Friday will see low pressure moving across and there will be spells of rain – sometimes heavy. But when it rains, is currently uncertain. It will be mild, say 10’C to 13’C, and windy at times.

Then for the weekend there is going to be a battle between colder air trying to push down from the north, and milder air continuing to try to push up from the south-west.

More likely, at least for us in the south, the milder air wins, but we are talking a 75/25 chance. Where the mild meets the cold, there will be snow on the boundary – which most likely is Scotland or north England, but not impossible down here. So a White Christmas is unlikely, but possible – maybe a 5-10% chance down here.

I think it will be another two days until we have a better handle on the Christmas weekend weather – there is a lot going on in the hemispheric pattern, and it remains unusual – as it has done for 6 weeks or so. Hence our significant cold spell prior.

Even if mild wins out for Christmas (it may even win out in Scotland!), after Christmas and towards New Year is more likely to see a return to cold weather, with the usual wintry risks. Uncertain, but the somewhat more likely outcome.

Appreciate this is all pretty vague, but it is what it is. We need to wait for weather models to determine outcomes for this unusual set-up.

Next update I will try to do before Thursday evening.…

Three more cold days with frosts, before it turns milder – and wetter.

Thanks to Becky for the photograph.

Clear skies tonight with a widespread sharp frost, widely down to -5’C, more sheltered spots a little lower. A few patches of freezing fog possible.

For Friday we are in a waiting pattern – waiting for a large area of low pressure to our south-west to head our way.

Any fog patches in the morning will lift to sunshine – those starting sunny (most places) will stay sunny all day. Cold, around 2’C. Clear skies at first overnight, though some high/mid level cloud spreading in from the west as the night goes on. Again widely down to around -5’C, I wouldn’t be surprised to see -7’C in places.

Saturday generally sees some sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud. The south-westerly breeze mixing out the temperatures a bit, so reaching maybe 4’C, perhaps even 5’C – so less cold than it has been, but with a breeze. Clear skies at first overnight, though cloud thickening as the night goes on. Another frost, minimum temperatures somewhere between -2’C and -4’C.

Sunday starts cloudy. Rain will spread across from the west, arriving roughly between 10am and 1pm – there may be a very short spell of sleet/snow to start but even on that smallish chance, it will very quickly turn to rain. Then the rest of the day…and night…sees sporadic outbreaks of rain – sometimes dry, sometimes light rain, sometimes heavy. Still cold by day, maybe only 2’C in mid-afternoon, but temperatures will gradually keep increasing to 12’C overnight. Strong winds too. Welcome back, autumn.

Low pressure well in control for Monday.

It will remain windy, cloudy with further showery outbreaks of rain – again sometimes light, sometimes dry – but occasionally some heavy bursts. 12’C. Uncertain overnight, though the more likely outcome sees showery rain clearing, to clear spells.

That’s actually as far as I can go in terms of reliable day-to-day details at the moment.

The more likely outcome for Tuesday through to Christmas Day, is that it stays unsettled with spells of rain – but when it rains cannot yet be ascertained.

However, the hemispheric pattern remains conducive to further cold weather for the UK, so within this time period, we could easily see cold weather spreading down from the north once more, short spells most likely, but would also give a chance of wintry surprises.

Let’s summarise next week as changeable and uncertain, likely with rain at times, likely mild more than cold – but short cold spells possible within.

But this significant cold spell is ending on Sunday.…

Another cold week ahead.

Thanks to Marion for the photograph. Quite a lot of excellent photographs sent in this week!

Tonight starts mostly cloud, though clear spells will develop for a time, albeit with more high/mid-level cloud later in the night. Roughly down to around -3’C, give or take. Ice forming in places, especially untreated surfaces – go careful!

For Tuesday, we remain entrenched in the cold air, with low pressure systems travelling over France with the more southerly tracking jetstream.

It will be cloudy all day, under influence of low pressure to our south, but it will stay dry – some hazy sunshine at times, depending on how thick the cloud is. Cold, 1’C. This layer of high/medium level cloud should stop temperatures dropping too far, -2’C widely, perhaps lower in some spots.

Broadly similar for Wednesday, the area of high/mid level cloud will allow for hazy sunshine quite often. A bit more of a breeze and still definitely cold, 1’C, maybe 2’C. Some uncertainty overnight, the cloud cover may clear to our south which could lead temperatures as low as -8’C, but likewise it may remain cloudy, with temperatures closer to -2’C – or somewhere in between.

Most likely for Thursday we are back to long spells of sunshine, but still cold (a small chance that we keep this layer of high/mid-level cloud for longer). Reaching around 1’C eventually. Clear skies overnight and another harsh frost, more likely in the range of -4’C to -6’C, but possible a bit either way. Possible that fog forms overnight, though not an especially high chance.

Friday broadly looks sunny, depending on whether any fog formed overnight and how long that takes to clear. Reaching around 2’C, maybe 3’C with a very slight mixing out of the cold. Probably a bit more cloud around overnight but another frost likely. Minimum temperatures more likely in the range of -2’C to -4’C, though it could be a little either side – an outside chance of a wintry shower.

Not especially high confidence for Saturday but suggestions of something slightly less cold with the flow turning somewhat more south-westerly. Uncertain on details, but some form of mixture of cloudy spells and sunny spells more likely, with temperatures closer to 5’C. A frost probable overnight with temperatures down to around -2’C.

Sunday is a little uncertain, but it does look more likely that low pressure will be pushing up from the south-west, bringing wind and rain with it – and milder air, though how mild is also uncertain – anywhere from 4’C to 12’C. There is a chance that the rain could be preceded by snow for an hour or two, so worth keeping an eye on things if you have plans.

Next week would then more likely start wet but mild.

Sunday’s change to milder weather isn’t completely a done deal yet, but is roughly an 80% chance – there remains a very small chance that the cold air could hang on.

And even assuming the change to mild, it could very easily change back to cold once more – the hemispheric pattern will remain conducive to further cold weather across the UK, and we could easily see further northerly plunges next week, or perhaps after Christmas maybe an easterly.

My gut instinct is that there will be another spell of cold weather before December is out, a shorter spell, within a general mix of other weather types too.

Next forecast should be Thursday, unless I decide on going to yet another work Christmas party. But I think I’m done with them!…

A really tricky forecast for later, and very much a nowcasting event – Reading does look too far west of the event later, and too far east of the current snow showers – as evidenced by the Met Office warnings being to our west, east and south!

But there are still chances.

Watching for two things really. Firstly the snow to our west, which may pivot east this afternoon to bring some snow showers – doesn’t feel especially likely, but maybe a 25% chance of some snow showers.

If you do catch a proper shower then anything from 1-4cm possible, they will be localised and slow-moving showers. Don’t be surprised if you get nothing (the more likely outcome) and somewhere 5 miles down the road gets 4cm.

Then in the evening and overnight, an area of snow will move up into Kent/Essex and push westwards somewhat. I’ve got reasonable confidence that London will see snow tonight, and there may be enough oomph in the showers for 1-2cm this far west overnight – maybe a 30% chance at a push.

That little feature may well stay east of London so we’d get nothing in Reading, but there is an outside chance that it may its northward move further west…so one to watch out for.

Overall for today and tonight, the more likely outcome is that you see no snow or a dusting at most, but there is a fair chance of 1-2cm, and a small chance of more.

As I mentioned in the introduction, it will be very much a case of watching the radar and seeing what happens.…

Well, it’s cold and it’s going to stay cold. But will it snow? Well…there are chances. Chances.

Thanks to Kate for the frosty photograph.

Tonight sees mostly clear skies and a sharp frost, widely down to around -4’C, maybe -6’C in the most sheltered spots. A small chance of some mist/fog by dawn in a few spots.

Saturday sees a weak area of low pressure over the UK – the jetstream is well to the south roughly through the Mediterranean, with high pressure towards Greenland. A pretty classic cold set-up – one that doesn’t happen too often.

It will be mostly sunny all day, a little bit of cloud at times possible. If you start with mist/fog, this could take a little time to lift. Just about getting to 3’C. Freezing fog forming widely overnight, down to -4’C, a tad lower in the more sheltered spots.

Sunday starts foggy almost everywhere. This gradually lifts into low cloud for most, perhaps a bit of sunshine at times. However some places may keep freezing fog all day – if you do, temperatures unlikely to reach above 0’C, otherwise 2’C. There is a very small chance of a snow shower during the day.

Sunday evening and overnight, it looks like a little feature develops towards the south coast, and moves inland. A lot of uncertainty. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. But it should bring some snow, potentially disruptive amounts, somewhere over the south-east of England. Where? Well, I’d put Kent/Sussex as the favoured areas, we are just about in the game, maybe a 15% chance. Assuming the more likely outcome of the feature being towards Kent, then freezing fog will again form (assuming it even cleared), and temperatures will get down to around -3’C, give or take.

Monday continues cold. Likely often cloudy, perhaps foggy, especially early on. There remains a small chance of some light snow showers in the morning, depending on that Sunday night feature. Some sunny breaks possible at times, more likely in the afternoon. Temperatures somewhere between -1’C and 2’C – the former if there is either snow on the ground, or fog persists, the latter if not. Overnight sees clear spells, at least at first, some more cloud likely as the night goes on, a small chance of a snow shower. Down to roughly -2’C, though could easily be a couple either way.

By Tuesday we see low pressure trying to push up from the south – it should fail, but this isn’t 100% certain.

So most likely we are fairly cloudy, perhaps some hazy sunshine and still cold, roughly around 2’C, and there could be a notable easterly (ish) wind by then. Frosty overnight, quite how cold will depend on cloud amounts, but somewhere between -2’C and -5’C most likely.

However – there is a 10% chance that during Tuesday/Tuesday night, weather fronts from the low pressure to our south spread far enough north to bring a spell of snow.

The more likely outcome for Wednesday sees it cold with long spells of sunshine, temperatures around 2’C. Frosty overnight.

The more likely outcome for Thursday again sees it cold with long spells of sunshine, and temperatures around 2’C. However, there is again a 10% chance of weather fronts spreading up from the south to bring a spell of snow.

Friday and into next weekend very likely remain cold, with sharp overnight frosts and small chances of little features bringing snow.

Difficult to say what happens for Christmas week at the moment. Milder air with wind and rain (snow probable on the leading edges) will try to push in from the south-west once more, and may have a greater chance of some temporary victories early in that week, though I do feel that a return to cold would be more likely than not even if mild does temporarily wind. And if mild doesn’t win, then it stays cold through Christmas.

So, there you go. Proper cold weather in December – how unusual. Small chances of snow, notably this Sunday – do keep an eye on forecasts – I’ll try to update on Sunday morning, but there is this thing called the Met Office who are pretty decent also.

It’s the kind of set-up where small features can bring localised heavy snow at fairly short notice, and I may or may not have time to update you beforehand.…

It’s the coldest forecast for some time…probably since February/March 2018. But I still cannot promise you any snow.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy at first, the odd light shower possible. Some clear spells as the night goes on, but still plenty of cloud around. Down to around 2’C.

Tuesday sees a northerly flow set up – high pressure over Greenland, low pressure over Scandinavia.

A mixture of sunny spells and cloudy spells – likely more sunshine through the middle portion of the day, but certainly more sunshine than recent days. Fairly cold in the northerly breeze, 6’C, maybe 7’C at a push. Some cloud overnight but probably enough clear spells for a frost for most, down to around 0’C.

Wednesday sees some cloud, some sunny spells in the morning – generally increasing amounts of sunshine as the day goes on. 4’C in the northerly breeze. Clear skies overnight with a fairly sharp frost, down to around -4’C, give or take – I wouldn’t be surprised to see -7’C in the very most sheltered spots.

Thursday starts sunny but frosty. A little feature may develop and sink south, but this is uncertain – should it develop, and should it track our way, it could bring a slight covering of snow, say 1cm or so – but highly uncertain whether it develops, where it tracks or the timing. Cold, 2’C. Overnight still has the risk of this little feature, otherwise cold and frosty, roughly down to around -4’C, but that’s a vague figure. Fog possible.

A little uncertainty on details for Friday. There may be some low cloud or fog to start the day, this should clear to sunny spells – but no certainty. Assuming sunshine, we should reach 2’C – but if it stays cloudy/foggy – or there is some snow cover from Thursday’s possible little feature, then 0’C more likely. Widely down to around -4’C so a widespread and fairly sharp frost – even lower in sheltered spots. Fog may form in places.

By Saturday we have a weak trough over us, but also note a tropical (ish) storm over The Azores – very unusual for December, but then again this whole set-up is unusual.

The low pressure trough does mean that there is a chance of one or two little features across the UK, bringing some (probably) snow, but impossible to predict where at this stage. So, otherwise expect sunny spells and temperatures around 2’C, maybe 3’C – though close to 0’C should overnight fog not clear. Another fairly sharp frost likely overnight, down to around -4’C, maybe lower, especially in more sheltered spots. Again, fog may form in places.

The above pretty much applies for Sunday and Monday also. If the sun comes out then reaching around 2’C, maybe 3’C, but if it remains foggy all day, then closer to 0’C. Again, small chances of a little feature bringing some snow, but they would be rather localised features and impossible to say anything other than “small chances somewhere” right now. Sharp frosts, and fog overnight.

That’s about as far as I can go. Towards the middle of next week, the aforementioned Azores tropical-ish storm may be attempting to head our way – it could stay well to our south (the slightly more likely outcome), so we stay cold with fog/frost, it could come north enough to bring a spell of heavy snow for us, or maybe heavy snow turning to rain – or it may push towards the north of Scotland, potentially again a snow to rain event, but turning milder for a time after.

Don’t forget that my winter forecast was issued yesterday. And the next full forecast will probably be on Friday, due to Christmas party season.…

Fairly cold this weekend and a little colder next week.

Thanks to Debbie for the photograph.

It’s quite an unusual set-up at the moment, especially for early winter where we are often under westerly regimes with spells of wind and rain, and often pretty mild.

This year, we start winter with a strong high pressure block over Scandinavia, and a fairly cold easterly flow – though the easterly is being moderated a tad by a much warmer than normal North Sea.

Tonight looks rather cloudy, the odd shower in the chilly easterly breeze possible. A few clear spells towards dawn and down to around 2’C.

Saturday will be often cloudy, though some sunny spells at times. The odd shower possible in the breeze. Fairly cold in the easterly breeze, reaching close to 7’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, the odd shower possible, a few clear spells at times, down to around 2’C.

Sunday looks mostly cloudy. A few light/moderate showers around, the odd sunny spell possible. A bit colder, 5’C in a fairly cold easterly wind. Cloudy overnight, the odd light shower again, down to around 3’C.

Monday again looks mostly cloudy, again the odd light shower around, a few sunny spells. 6’C, maybe 7’C in the easterly breeze. Mostly cloudy overnight though a few clear spells possible towards dawn, down to around 3’C.

By Tuesday we see high pressure now more centred over Greenland, and allowing a northerly flow, of sorts, to develop.

A bit more in the way of sunny spells, but plenty of cloud likely around to. Still fairly cold, 6’C. More likely overnight we see some clear spells, some cloud and temperatures on the verge of a frost, down to 1’C – however there is a small chance that a little rain may move north from France.

By Wednesday we are likely in a northerly flow, so colder but sunnier. Good sunny spells most likely, a little cloud, and temperatures around 4’C, maybe 5’C – and feeling cold in the northerly breeze. A frost likely overnight, down to around -2’C, perhaps lower. A small chance of fog.

Thursday is probably about as far as I can go with any reasonable confidence. Likely still in the northerly flow, with sunny spells and temperatures around 4’C – a small chance of a wintry shower.

Friday and into next weekend could remain cold, I’d still say that it is the slight favourite.

However it does look like a rather nasty low pressure system over the Azores could, if it develops to its potential, be able to change our weather pattern back to a mild, wet and windy pattern.

There is also a less likely scenario than the two above, that this (or a different low pressure system) struggle to get into the UK due to the more entrenched cold, and give a spell of heavy snow somewhere either in the UK or France, with heavy snow on the northern boundary and heavy rain on the southern boundary. It’s a possibility, but not really one to think too much about yet.

If the mild and wet weather does win out next weekend, I still think it would be easy to go back to a cold pattern after. There remains plenty of background signals in favour of cold weather for Europe for December.

It is very interesting model watching right now.

Enjoy your weekend – I should hopefully get time to do the winter forecast at some point.…