Winter Forecast Photograph Request

Gosh, it’s winter tomorrow! Which means I need a winter photograph.


Usual requirements apply:

  1. It must feature winter weather. There are various types of winter weather that you can choose from – I’ll try to choose one that fits my forecast as best as possible.
  2. It must feature the local area.
  3. The length of the photograph must be longer than the height. Appreciate that some of you ignore this, which is fine if you just want to send the photograph anyway, but it won’t be chosen!

Whoever’s photograph I choose will adorn the forecast and also be the cover photograph on Facebook for the next 3 months.

And I will donate £15 to a charity of their choice. But please make it something the internet won’t start arguments about – fluffy kittens good, charities involved in politics bad. That kind of thing. I’ll contact you if I choose your photograph.

Please add them to the Facebook post or e-mail them.

I will probably do the winter forecast this weekend but I have a lot on so no promises.…

Monday 28th November 2022

It’s time to go easterly.

All change as the jetstream powers down, and the high pressure block to our north-east which I have kept mentioning in recent weeks, extends its influence westwards, towards the UK.

Which means it will be colder (somewhat) and drier than it has been.

And it gives us opportunities for snow and/or proper cold as December progresses – though there are plenty of other options available at that timeframe. Will just be nice to have a frost in my opinion!

Thanks to Chris for the photograph.

Tonight sees scattered showers quickly fading, mist and fog developing quite widely – low cloud at the least for all. Down to around 5’C.

Tuesday will be dull and cloudy for much of the day – early mist and fog will lift to low cloud. Some limited sunny spells possible later in the day. Mostly cloudy overnight, a few clear spells in places, some mist/fog patches though less widespread than Monday night. Down to around 4’C.

By Tuesday, we see an easterly flow just starting to pick up as the Russian/Scandinavian blocking high nudges west – low pressure systems heading far to our south, through the Mediterranean.

Wednesday starts mostly cloudy, perhaps some mist/fog patches though not so likely. Some sunny spells will develop at times in the afternoon, though the general theme is cloud – a small chance of a few spots of light rain/drizzle. 8’C. Generally cloudy overnight, mist/fog forming in some places, down to around 4’C.

Thursday again looks rather cloudy, some early mist/fog patches. Some sunny spells developing in places – there’s a bit more scope for sunshine on Thursday, but don’t be surprised if it stays cloudy and dull all day. Around 7’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, mist/fog patches forming in places, an outside chance of a passing light shower. Down to around 3’C.

Friday sees some subtle changes, as the easterly breeze picks up. Still plenty of cloud, some sunny spells, a small chance of a shower. Around 6’C but feeling quite cold in the breeze. Some cloud and some clear spells overnight, a small chance of a passing shower, down to around 3’C.

Saturday is very similar, plenty of cloud, some sunny spells, a small chance of a shower. Around 7’C in the fairly cold easterly breeze. Some cloud overnight, some clear spells, a small chance of a shower and down to around 2’C. A small chance of frost or fog.

Suggestions that Sunday will be cloudier and colder – maximums around 4’C, maybe 5’C. A little brightness possible at times, the odd light shower also possible, and still the easterly breeze. Fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 2’C – a chance of frost or fog.

These fairly cold and fairly cloudy conditions likely continue for the start of next week – fog or frost will be possible overnight, light showers also possible, though details will be determined much nearer the time.

By time we get to midweek, there are a wider range of possibilities – one of those involves low pressure moving up from the south, which could bring something less cold with some rain, though it could also lead to a battleground scenario with some form of snow event – maybe rain turns to snow, snow turns to rain, etc – one of those nightmare forecasting scenarios.

Or maybe we just stay as we were – fairly cold and fairly cloudy.

The slightly more likely outcome for next weekend into the week after, sees either northerly or north-easterly flows, which means it could be proper cold – and any precipitation will be more likely snow.

It may well be the coldest December since 2010 – though unlikely that exceptional. Not the best timing to have a cold December either…but weather will do what it does.…

Thursday 24th November 2022

More rain for the weekend, but becoming drier as next week goes on. And then colder?

Thanks to Chris for the photograph.

Tonight sees clear spells, a small chance of the remnants of a passing shower, still breezy and down to around 6’C.

The general pattern for Friday sees low pressure to our west, struggling to make much progress due to the monster high pressure over Russia – with a high pressure ridge building over the UK.

Long spells of sunshine, a bit of cloud later in the afternoon but otherwise a pleasant late autumn day. 11’C and breezy. Cloud thickening somewhat overnight, though maybe a few clear spells again towards dawn, down to around 5’C.

Saturday starts bright with some hazy sunshine. Cloud will thicken during the morning as the next weather front staggers towards us – though staying dry during daylight. Mild, 12’C. Patchy rain arriving early evening, and it will rain for most of the night, a few heavy bursts overnight possible. Still around 12’C – quite windy especially in the evening.

Sunday is uncertain – there is quite some uncertainty over how quickly the weather front clears. Maybe it clears by dawn – the less likely outcome, to be followed by sunny spells. More likely there is further rain in the morning, maybe even into the afternoon. Whatever the outcome, mild at around 12’C. We should see clear skies overnight, down to around 5’C ish – fog possible.

Monday may start foggy – uncertain. Broadly speaking once any fog clears, if there is any, will be some cloud, some sunny spells, a small chance of a shower – around 10’C. Uncertain on cloud/fog potential overnight – temperatures on the chilly side, though will depend on cloud amounts.

Really losing confidence on many details now, though Tuesday looks dry. Whether it is sunny, or dull and cloudy, is uncertain – with a risk of fog. Around 8’C.

I think that is about as far as I can go with any certainty. There is almost certainly a pattern change happening by now – a much weaker jetstream, a favourable upstream pattern for settled conditions – a huge high pressure block over Russia.

All of these factors, along with long-range modelling give me high confidence that December will be dry. Maybe some rain (or snow?!) on some days – but overall much drier than normal, and than it has been.

Exactly what kind of mostly dry and settled weather we transition to is very much up for debate, both short-term for the rest of next week, and longer term.

We could end up in a dull, drizzly and raw easterly (not quite cold enough out east for snow) for the rest of next week, or we could end up with high pressure over us – sunny with overnight frosts. Or some other similar combination. Daytime temperatures broadly in the range of 5’C to 9’C. That’s the general kind of theme anyway.

Certainly possible as December goes on, if everything aligns perfectly, that we see some snow. Possible. Nowhere near probable. It isn’t easy to get snow in December in the south of England, especially with warmer seas than normal and a not yet especially cold continent to our east. It would take something unusual.

But there are unusual background signals – the high pressure block to our east is unusually strong. The tropospheric Polar Vortex is unusually to our east. The jetstream is weakening.

It could happen. Things look interesting, but it’s a long way from interesting on weather models to actual wintry weather.

Time to watch Brazil vs Serbia. Have a good weekend.…

Monday 21st November 2022

Another unsettled week, but could it be the last unsettled week for a while? Read on…

Thanks to Christel for the photograph.

Today’s rain is currently over the Midlands/North England and is stuck there for a little while – we’ll see clear spells overnight and temperatures down to around 3’C – though some more cloud and perhaps a little light rain towards dawn, as the remnants sink back south/south-east.

Low pressure remains in charge for Tuesday, with the jetstream tracking a little to our south – the Scandinavian (ish) blocking high making it difficult for low pressure systems to clear.

Not really any rain left in the low pressure system over us, there will be some sun at times, more likely in the morning – and cloudy spells too, particularly lunchtime and early afternoon. Perhaps a little light rain. 8’C and breezy. Clear spells at first overnight, down to around 2’C, cloud thickening later in the night with rain arriving a little before dawn.

Wednesday sees a band of rain crossing, some heavy – say around 4 hours of rain, 5am to 9am – give or take. Sunny spells follow for the afternoon and a bit milder, 10’C. Quite windy too. Variable cloud overnight, a chance of a shower in the wind, 7’C or so.

Thursday starts with good spells of sunshine. Cloud will bubble up with some scattered heavy showers – most places catching a couple. Either late afternoon or early evening looks to see a band of very heavy rain crossing for an hour or two – some gusty winds possible, and an outside chance of hail/thunder mixed in. Around 11’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 3’C.

Friday sees a ridge of high pressure building, as an attempt to change the weather pattern starts. Long spells of sunshine, a bit of cloud, around 10’C. Clear spells at first overnight, though high cloud building and probably preventing a frost, down to around 3’C.

Saturday sees the next weather front approaching, though struggling a bit to get across. Likely bright to start the day, but cloud with slowly thicken with some patchy rain possible in the afternoon/evening. Around 11’C and windy. Persistent rain likely overnight, and mild, 12’C. Windy too.

Sunday is probably fine with sunny spells and variable cloud. Around 11’C and breezy. Probably a chilly night – maybe a frost.

Next week looks like another attempt to change the weather pattern with high pressure building in once more – will the attempt be successful or will another low pressure win out?

These autumnal patterns can take a bit of shifting…but the signs remain for December to be settled and drier than normal, as I’ve been saying for a long while – and these signals are increasingly strong.

How high pressure takes control (assuming it does) will be key as to whether December is mild and mostly dry, or cold and mostly dry – at least for the beginning of the transition.

That high pressure block to our north-east could well extend its influence further west – which would mean dry and cold, with chances of wintry showers.

Those wanting snow – well, you have some lottery tickets this year. Those wanting a White Christmas – even you have some lottery tickets. Normally I think the odds of a White Christmas (snow falling that day) this far out is around 3-5% – maybe it is 8-10% this year.…

Thursday 17th November 2022

Cooler with more rain to come.

Thanks to Annalisa for the photograph.

Tonight sees a bit of a mixture, some clear spells at times especially this evening and towards dawn, but some cloud at times with a bit of rain. Down to around 6’C.

The set-up for Friday is broadly the same as it has been all week, with a high pressure block towards Scandinavia, stopped low pressure systems getting past the UK – with Wednesday night’s low pressure still hanging around.

Fairly sunny in the morning, cloud bubbling up though likely still some sunny spells at times for the rest of the day. A small chance of a shower, breezy, 11’C. Clear spells at first overnight though cloud thickening somewhat from the east later, down to around 2’C – a ground frost possible in places.

Saturday may start bright, but will tend to become cloudy as a weak weather front tries to push in from the east – perhaps bringing a bit of patchy lightish rain. A bit of uncertainty as to how far west it gets. Chilly, 8’C. Clear spells for a time in the evening and the first part of the night as a different weather front pushes in from the west – and it will bring a few hours of rain after midnight, some heavy. Down to around 4’C before the rain arrives.

Sunday looks fairly sunny. Some cloud around, a small chance of a shower, otherwise chilly but pleasant – around 8’C, maybe 9’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, though some cloud towards dawn – temperatures getting down to around 1’C, so a frost in places.

By Monday another powerful streak of the jetstream will be heading towards us, though a little further south towards Europe.

It may start bright but rain will quickly arrive and spread across during the morning – some uncertainty on when it arrives but a start time between 9am and midday should be roughly ok. And some uncertainty on how long it rains for – feasibly any amount between 4 and 10 hours. Some heavy rain expected. Reaching around 9’C and quite windy. Further showers probable overnight, down to around 3’C.

Tuesday is uncertain – it depends on where various low pressure systems and cut-off lows are, though the somewhat more likely outcome is that we stay dry with sunny spells – the less likely outcome sees further rain or showers. Around 8’C or so.

That’s about as far as I can go in terms of details, however I can tell you that it will be unsettled.

Wednesday and Thursday are likely to see further rain or showers, which could be heavy and there is a chance of strong winds. Temperatures probably up a notch, say 10’C or 11’C.

A suggestion of high pressure building from the south-west for Friday and into next weekend – but pretty low confidence really.

I still think high pressure building over the UK is the more likely outcome for December, but I’m wary of the jetstream being much stronger than I expected.

Should it happen, it may even be rather cold at times. Gosh, we might get a proper frost.

Next forecast should be Monday evening, as long as I don’t get too excited by a credible 0-0 draw with Iran in the World Cup.

See ya.…

Monday 14th November 2022

Becoming unsettled once more, with temperatures more seasonal.

Thanks to Lucinda for the photograph.

It’s a semi-interesting set-up at the moment, the jetstream is firing up pretty strongly, due to a plunge of cold air into USA – but it is coming up against a pretty stubborn block of high pressure towards Scandinavia.

So the main large low pressure trough will be stuck to our west, but it will push weather fronts across the UK – which then cannot progress any further east due to the block, and (for now) are pushed further north, then back into the circulation in the Atlantic.

Should the blocking high to our east extend this way – the potential is for much drier and cooler/colder air. It’s intriguing, but easterly flows are pretty rare in November.

Anyway…this evening sees a weak weather front crossing bringing 30 minutes of rain (and has probably cleared before I post this!), clear skies for a short while before the next weather front arrives around 3/4am, bringing initially patchy rain. Down to around 9’C and quite windy towards dawn.

So Tuesday sees high pressure over Scandinavia and low pressure to our west – the latter now in charge.

It starts windy with some rain, which will become heavy for a time in the morning. Clearing around lunchtime or just after, followed by sunny spells and scattered showers – a heavy shower particularly possible early evening. Still pretty mild, 14’C. Scattered heavy showers overnight, down to around 8’C.

Wednesday morning sees sunny spells and scattered showers – the showers mostly towards the south coast but a few should have the oomph to push this far inland. Dry and bright in the afternoon, but cloud will gradually thicken as the next weather front approaches. 11’C and breezy. Rain then arrives late afternoon/early evening, some heavy, perhaps very heavy rain as it pushes through – I guess 3 or so hours of rain but frequent heavy showers likely to follow anyway. Windy too. Showers less likely as the night goes on, though still possible – no lower than around 8’C.

Thursday is a bit uncertain as will depend on where the overnight cut-off low got to, but more likely it is further north, so possible that there is some showery bits of rain still around in the morning – more likely sunny spells in the afternoon. Generally it is an improving picture during the day – cloudier earlier and showers more likely earlier. Cool and windy, around 10’C. Mostly clear skies overnight and fairly chilly, down to around 5’C.

Friday looks fair under a ridge of high pressure – decent spells of sunshine, a bit of cloud around. 10’C. Clear skies probable overnight, there may even be a frost – I know, a frost in November. Crazy. Uncertain how chilly it will get, but a fair estimate would be minimums of somewhere between 0’C and 3’C (take off a couple if notably rural).

By Saturday, our Scandinavian high pressure has taken advantage and extended westwards, close to the UK. But the jetstream is strengthening once more…and there is only one winner.

Saturday starts chilly and it should be sunny. Reaching around 8’C – a notable difference to late. A band of rain will push across either evening or more likely overnight, probably some heavy rain, probably some fairly strong winds. How low temperatures get will depend on the timing of the band of rain, 4’C would be a fair estimate – but the later it arrives then the colder it will get before.

Sunday most likely sees sunny spells and a small chance of a shower. Breezy, 10’C.

Suggestions next week that the strong jetstream will tilt south-east, towards France/Spain – which does mean more rain for us in the south of England, but it also means cooler temperatures – with the cooler/colder air mass towards Scandinavia filtering our way instead. Daytime maxes between 6’C and 9’C – I might even need a jumper at last.

It’s not a particularly normal pattern, so some scepticism should be allotted. It is at least semi-interesting – and not impossible that it becomes a proper cold pattern before the end of November, though a reversal to mild and wet is far more likely.

Still pretty strong signals for a mostly dry and settled December. But mild or cold? Or a mix? Not sure yet.…

Thursday 10th November 2022

Scream if you wanna go milder…

Thanks to Christel for the photograph.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy and very mild, the odd fragment of light rain possible. 14’C.

Friday sees high pressure close to our south-east with a southerly flow – would be heatwave conditions in summer.

Mostly cloudy to start. The cloud will gradually thin and break as the day going on, to bring bright or sunny spells. 16’C, maybe 17’C – breezy too. Some clear spells overnight, though somewhat more cloud towards dawn, and fog patches possible in a few spots. 11’C.

Saturday starts with some cloud, a few fog patches, but will become sunny – with sunshine pretty much all afternoon. Reaching 17’C, maybe 18’C. Wow. Mostly clear skies overnight, a small chance of mist/fog forming towards dawn, down to around 10’C.

Sunday sees long spells of sunshine, apart from any possible early mist/fog patches, and some high cloud later in the afternoon. Around 17’C in a southerly breeze. Clear skies at first overnight, cloud thickening somewhat later, a small chance of mist/fog in places too. Down to around 8’C.

Monday starts to see a battleground scenario, with low pressure systems trying to push in from the west, but a high pressure block strengthening to our east.

Monday sees the first attempted weather front cross the UK – he makes it across, though weakening, so will bring some rain but nothing too much. Probably some sunshine to finish the day, though will depend on how long the weather front takes to cross. 13’C. Clear skies at first, down to around 6’C, before the next weather front arrives, bringing wind and some outbreaks of rain at some point in the second half of the night.

Tuesday starts with rain, some heavy, as this weather front slowly pushes east. Uncertain on when it clears – any time between midday and 6pm would be a best guess – these interplays between weather fronts and strong high pressure blocks do cause uncertainty. Around 12’C – should the rain clear midday (ish) then sunny spells and showers will follow. Clear spells overnight, a bit cooler, say 5’C – showers possible, though uncertain.

By Wednesday, the weather fronts will be winning the battle (for now?). Probably dry with sunny spells during the day, though not especially high confidence. Around 10’C. The next weather front may cross overnight.

That’s about as far as I can go with any confidence, until we resolve what the high pressure block to our east does.

Most likely, for now, the high pressure block remains to our east, and low pressure continues to be in control over the UK, with further showers and wind/rain from Thursday through the weekend.

But there is a smaller chance that it pushes west, and brings drier and somewhat colder conditions, with some frost. It wouldn’t totally shock me to see something proper cold…highly unlikely, but it is a possible iteration from where we are right now, believe it or not.

I do still expect late November and especially December to be mostly under the influence of high pressure – more likely positioned to bring colder weather than milder weather, but to be determined.

Enjoy the mild.…

Monday 7th November 2022

Showers for the next day or so but then becoming dry and quite warm.

Thanks to Ian for the photograph.

This evening will be quite cloudy with the odd scattered shower – another band of showery rain crossing roughly between 1am and 4am, some strong winds during that period and briefly the rain may be very heavy. Clearer skies by dawn, no lower than 11’C.

For Tuesday we remain in the showery, westerly flow.

Some sunny spells and scattered heavy showers – most places catching a couple of showers but maybe you’ll miss them all. Say an 80% chance of catching a couple. Windy and mild, 14’C. Variable cloud overnight, an outside chance of a shower and down to around 10’C.

Wednesday sees more in the way of sunshine. Still some cloud at times, one or two scattered showers dotted around – say a 30% chance of catching one. Breezy and around 13’C. Fairly clear skies at first overnight, more in the way of cloud later in the night, down to around 10’C.

Thursday looks bright and breezy, with spells of hazy sunshine – some more general cloud at times too. Quite warm for the time of year, 16’C. Mild and fairly cloudy overnight, 13’C.

By Friday, high pressure over central Europe will be orientated to push warmer upper air over the UK.

Likely quite cloudy in the morning, but it will become increasingly sunny from late morning onwards. Reaching around 16’C and still quite breezy. Reasonably clear skies overnight, though mist/fog may form in places by dawn. Down to around 6’C.

Saturday may start with mist/fog patches, but they’ll clear to good spells of sunshine, albeit perhaps a little hazy at times. 15’C, maybe 16’C in a southerly breeze. A fair chance of fog forming overnight, though uncertain at this stage – minimum temperatures somewhere between 5’C and 10’C.

Sunday will remain fair, with good spells of sunshine – albeit hazy. However, fog, if it formed overnight, may take some time to clear. Temperatures reaching somewhere between 13’C and 17’C, depending on how long fog takes to clear.

Next week probably starts very mild/quite warm with temperatures trending back to normal as the week goes on – but whether we remain under the influence of high pressure, or the Atlantic takes back control with more wind and rain, is uncertain.…

Thursday 3rd November 2022

Staying unsettled for a few more days, but gradually becoming drier next week – and warmer. Yes…warmer.

Thanks to Sue for this glorious photograph. I got soaked in that downpour on Wednesday.

This evening sees some scattered showers as a small low pushes south-east – more likely an hour or two either side of midnight, but possible before then also. Skies clearing towards dawn and becoming quite chilly, down to around 6’C.

Friday sees a ridge of high pressure.

Long spells of sunshine in the morning, a bit more cloud in the afternoon but pleasant enough. 12’C. Clear skies for a time overnight though cloud thickening towards dawn, chilly, down to around 4’C.

Saturday sees a band of rain crossing, arriving around or shortly after dawn. Not expecting anything heavy, generally light to moderate rain, and not always raining. Breezy and around 12’C. Probably dry in the evening for a while but some heavy showers pushing up from the south-west from late evening onwards – some uncertainty though as to the track and extent – very possible they will be further east of us, say 60/40 chance we see some heavy showers late evening and overnight.

Sunday looks like a day of sunny spells and heavy showers – suggestions of an organised band either in the morning or around lunchtime, though TBC. A small chance of hail/thunder mixed in. Breezy and around 12’C. Variable cloud overnight, perhaps a shower, down to around 8’C.

Monday looks fairly cloudy, though likely some hazy sunshine at times – the odd lightish shower possible. Milder, 14’C and quite windy too. A band of rain crossing overnight, likely some heavy bursts. Strong winds too.

For Tuesday we are in a westerly flow – sunny spells, scattered heavy showers and rather breezy. Mild, around 14’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 9’C.

Wednesday sees sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud and one or two scattered showers – though less likely by this stage. Around 14’C and breezy. Likely cloudier overnight, the odd spot of light rain possible.

By Thursday we start to see much warmer upper air push up from the south – how many times has this happened this year?!

Probably quite cloudy – a bit of sunshine, the odd bit of light rain possible. Around 17’C. Mild overnight too.

Friday is more likely sunny, and temperatures somewhere between 15’C and 18’C.

Next weekend most likely is dry and most likely is mild or quite warm, somewhere between 14’C and 18’C by day. Uncertain on cloud/sunshine amounts at this stage.

More likely high pressure stays close to the UK for much of the rest of November – though position uncertain. December still looking dry with high pressure perhaps over the UK – possibly a frost-fest, but we’ll see – exact positioning is a long way from being determined.

Have a good weekend.…