Monday 31st October 2022

Mild and quite unsettled, with wind and rain at times.

And the clocks have gone back so the models are out an hour earlier – woohoo! Shame about the darkness, but you cannot have everything in life.

This evening and the first part of the night sees heavy showers moving up from the south/south-west. A short spell of strong winds as it clears around 3/4am, with clear skies to follow. No lower than 10’C.

For Tuesday we are in a more westerly flow.

Generally the picture is for some sunny spells, but plenty of blustery showers, likely on the heavy side. Hail and/or thunder possible. Quite windy, particularly in the morning, reaching around 15’C. Showers continuing into the evening, but they will fade. Skies clearing and temperatures dropping to around 6’C.

Wednesday starts sunny. Cloud will gradually thicken during the day, the wind will become strong during the afternoon, with showery rain arriving by late afternoon – some heavy bursts likely. Around 14’C. Showery rain continuing through the evening – some uncertainty overnight, though the more likely outcome sees the showery rain clear for a short while, before further rain pushes up from the south-west later in the night – however this secondary area could be further east, and miss us. More likely, we see this second area. Winds will lighten as the night goes on, and temperatures drop to around 10’C.

Thursday is uncertain due to that aforementioned secondary area of rain. So the slightly more likely outcome sees rain during the morning, slowly clearing during the afternoon and temperatures around 10’C – the slightly less likely outcome is sunny spells and scattered showers, around 13’C. Uncertain overnight, though the slightly more likely outcome sees clear skies and temperatures down to around 5’C – the slightly less likely outcome sees an area of showers.

Friday sees a ridge of high pressure over the UK, so a pleasant day, if a little on the cool side in a northerly breeze – 12’C. Otherwise, sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud. Clear skies overnight and quite cold, down to around 2’C – more sheltered spots maybe getting to 0’C. A frost in places and perhaps a few fog patches too.

Saturday starts bright with sunny spells, though it will become hazier. A weakening band of rain crossing at some point, either afternoon or evening, more likely with light or moderate rain. Around 13’C. Uncertain overnight, but rain possible.

Sunday is uncertain. The slightly more likely outcome sees sunny spells and a small chance of a shower – the slightly less likely outcome sees a spell of rain.

Next week likely at least starts quite unsettled, with further rain/showers and wind at times. It should become drier and cooler/colder by around mid-November, on current trends.…

Thursday 27th October 2022

From warm with a little rain at times this weekend, to mild with quite a bit of rain next week. Well, it is autumn.

As the clocks go back on Sunday, which means the evening models are out an hour earlier, you’ll see the forecasts posted earlier from next week. Which is good for me – as I can get it all done before I cook my dinner! Silver linings of the darker evenings.

A small chance of a shower this evening, otherwise dry overnight with lots of high cloud. Very mild, 15’C.

Friday keeps us in this unusually warm south-westerly flow:

A weak weather front will cross in the morning, bringing some scattered showers for an hour or two – though some places may stay dry. Fairly sunny afterwards, albeit often with high cloud and various bits of fair-weather cloud around. Fairly warm and breezy, 18’C. Cloud gradually thickening overnight with some showery rain later on, mild at 13’C.

Saturday starts rather cloudy, there still may be the odd shower dotted around. The sun will come out once this clears, generally likely to be increasing amounts of sunshine, albeit with some high cloud making it hazy, and it should reach a whopping 20’C, maybe even 21’C with unusually warm air high up in the atmosphere. Summer’s last hurrah. A shower possible in the evening and first part of the night, but generally variable cloud and mild, 14’C.

Sunday remains mild, though down to 16’C. Some sunny spells, some cloud at times – likely some showers around though some uncertainty on the extent these will develop. Reasonably clear skies overnight and down to around 11’C.

Monday looks like spells of hazy sunshine – though generally more cloud probable later in the day, with a small chance of a shower. Still on the warm side, 17’C or so. A weather front looks like it will cross either in the evening or overnight, bringing some heavy, showery rain – perhaps strong winds too.

By Tuesday we lose the warm feel, but keep a mild feel, as the flow swings more westerly (ish) than southerly/south-westerly as it has been:

Probably, Tuesday sees sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud, a small chance of a shower, and possibly windy too. Around 15’C or so. Overnight probably sees another band of showery rain crossing.

Wednesday probably sees sunny spells, some fair weather cloud, a small chance of a shower and will be breezy, perhaps windy. Cooler than of late, 13’C.

Showery rain may cross overnight – or it may arrive on Thursday. Uncertain on timings.

The somewhat more likely outcome for Friday sees a dry day with some sunny spells, around 12’C.

At some point over next weekend, another band of showery rain should cross – but timings uncertain at this stage – dry with sunny spells either side.

The changeable conditions probably continue for a little while, though bands of rain probably getting fewer and weaker. A fair chance of it being settled – and colder, by mid-November.

Have a good weekend – I’ll be back on Monday – and back earlier in the evening!…

Monday 24th October 2022

An unusually warm week – otherwise fairly mixed, not much in the way of rain, and certainly nothing like that rather impressive storm yesterday.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

Scattered showers will fade this evening to leave reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

The general pattern for Tuesday sees low pressure to the west, and high pressure building to our south-east – setting us up for an unusually warm southerly flow as the week goes on.

Generally a day of sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud – a few scattered showers around lunchtime/early afternoon, say around a 60% chance of catching one or two. Cloud tending to thicken later in the day, and reaching around 17’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, a bit of patchy light rain at times in the evening and first part of the night. Mild in a south-westerly wind, no lower than 14’C.

Wednesday will be fairly similar, some sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud and a few scattered showers – possibly heavy, say a 50% chance of catching one. 18’C in a fresh south-westerly breeze. Fairly cloudy overnight and down to around 13’C – a chance of a spell of showery rain moving north later in the night, though uncertainty as to the track – it could be much further west.

Thursday is uncertain to start, due to the possible overnight showery rain, which may linger into the morning. Otherwise, variable cloud, some sunny spells (perhaps hazy) and a small chance of a shower. Reaching 19’C, maybe even 20’C. Breezy. Cloud slowly thickening overnight as a weather front tries to push east – very mild, probably no lower than 15’C.

Friday likely starts fairly cloudy – a weakening weather front may give a little patchy rain. Probably more sunshine in the afternoon, and probably more showers by the evening – though details a little sketchy right now, maybe the showers are earlier – or maybe it stays cloudy and dry all day. Temperatures somewhere between 17’C and 20’C – still breezy. Cloudy and mild overnight – probably with some showery rain, which could be heavy.

For Saturday we are still in this unusually warm southerly flow.

Details not yet certain, but more likely some cloud, some sun, a small chance of a shower and reaching around 18’C.

Sunday is uncertain – apart from the fact that it will remain unusually warm, somewhere between 17’C and 21’C. Otherwise, it might be dry with some sunshine, or there might be some rain – too early to say. Maybe marginal favourite is a spell of rain at some point.

Next week likely starts warmer than normal – changeable more likely than settled, though it should settle down as we grow into November.…

Friday 21st October 2022

The warmer than normal flow continues, with rain or showers at times.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph…though it doesn’t really match my forecast. Photograph beggars cannot always be choosers!

Friday sees two areas of low pressure, the main one to our south-west with a connected one to our west. The one to the south-west is still in charge.

It will be fairly cloudy with scattered showers, some heavy, a small chance of hail/thunder – though maybe you’ll miss them all. A little sunshine at times, reaching around 18’C and becoming quite windy later. A more organised band of heavy showers looks like it will cross mid/late afternoon, into early evening – scattered heavy showers possible for the first half of the night after this band, then dry with clear spells. 11’C.

By Saturday, our low pressure spins back on itself, so things are more stable and settled over the UK. Hazy sunny spells to start, it will become somewhat cloudier in the afternoon, but still some bright/sunny spells at times. A smallish chance of a lightish shower. Around 17’C with a bit of a breeze. Fairly cloudy overnight, a band of heavy showers pushing up from the south-west around 4am, give or take, a small chance of thunder/lightning. Breezy and very mild, 14’C.

Sunday starts with heavy/very heavy showery rain. This clears fairly quickly, followed by some sunny spells (hazy?), but also further heavy/very heavy showers – thunder, lightning, hail and gusty winds all very possible – could (I stress could) be something very potent in the mix. We should get to 18’C. Further heavy showers likely in the evening and first part of the night, probably drier later. A chance of some strong winds overnight – needs watching also. Around 12’C.

By Monday the low pressure system is finally on the move, and heading north-east – though we’ll remain in a warmish south-westerly flow for a while, as the jetstream does its wavy thing, dipping south into the Atlantic, then heading north-east over the UK.

Monday will be calmer. Some sunny spells though more in the way of cloud. Some showers around, more likely catching a couple than staying dry, but you may miss them. Around 16’C. Variable cloud overnight, around 10’C.

Tuesday should be dry with some sunny spells…though plenty of cloud. I say should, because rain may be arriving at some point – currently more likely in the evening but maybe it will be earlier. 17’C or so. Rain possible in the evening – though how this develops is very uncertain at this stage.

The more likely outcome for Wednesday keeps weather fronts close to our west – we’ll be in a warmish southerly flow, with hazy sunshine. Temperatures around 18’C, maybe a tad more.

From here, details are too uncertain to be worth attempting daily forecasts, but the general pattern is set for Thursday, Friday and probably the weekend – which keeps the southerly or south-westerly flow.

I think most of the time the weather fronts will be to our west – but we should get some showers and/or weakening weather fronts crossing occasionally. Variable cloud with some sunny spells or hazy sunshine, otherwise. Potentially windy. Mild nights and fairly warm days, for the time of year – I don’t think temperatures will be below 16’C. 18’C more likely, 20’C possible.

November most likely starts with similar conditions, though should become more settled after the start of the month, with chilly nights becoming more likely.

The chances of a colder than normal December are increasing somewhat in my view. Still fairly confident on it being drier than normal.

Have a good weekend…I should be back on Monday, all being well.…

Wednesday 19th October 2022 – Rain Update

Just to clarify a few things from my previous forecast.

This evening sees a line of showers moving north, potentially heavy, an outside chance of a rumble of thunder.

The odd shower possible overnight, but mostly dry.

Then Thursday does see the previously-possible area of heavy rain move up from the south, arriving roughly 6/7am, showery in nature, sometimes heavy, perhaps occasionally very heavy. Some uncertainty as to when it clears, somewhere between midday and 3pm – though it will become more showery. Around 16’C.

Frequent heavy showers expected on Friday. Quite windy too.

All other details more or less as per the main previous forecast and the next full forecast will be on Friday.…

Monday 17th October 2022

Low pressure to our south-west will be in charge this week, pushing up warmer air – and some rain/showers at times too.

Thanks to Chickena for the photograph. There is some sunshine in the forecast too.

Mostly clear skies tonight though mist/fog forming in places by dawn, down to around 6’C.

Tuesday sees low pressure to our west with the warmer-than-usual flow from the south – the low is cut off from the jetstream to our north, which means it just sits there.

Early mist/fog patches will clear, and it will become sunny. Some high cloud later in the afternoon. Reaching around 17’C, with a bit of a breeze. Cloud thickening overnight with a band of heavy showers crossing at some point – they will be hit and miss. 11’C and breezy.

Wednesday starts fairly cloudy – one or two scattered showers around in the morning, though some places missing them. More in the way of sunshine in the afternoon, albeit hazy – still a shower chance but fairly low chances. Rather breezy, we should just about scrape 17’C. Further showers, possibly heavy, pushing north either during the evening or first part of the night – a bit of uncertainty on timing. A rumble of thunder not impossible. A mild night – no lower than 13’C. A chance of another area of showery rain by dawn – though uncertain as to whether this will develop and the track.

Thursday starts uncertain, due to the aforementioned possible area of showery, heavy rain – I’d estimate a 30% chance of a spell of heavy rain to start the day. Rain or no rain, the rest of the day will be mostly sunny, albeit hazy sunshine at times. Around 18’C, though I wouldn’t rule out anything in the range of 16’C to 20’C. Still breezy too. Further heavy showers probable either in the evening or overnight, though uncertainty at this stage as to development – a small chance of thunder mixed in, and mild, 14’C.

By Friday our low pressure system edges ever closer.

By this stage we are notably uncertain in terms of when it will rain, and whether it will be showers or bands of rain. So Friday probably sees showers or a spell of general rain – I’d say showers more likely, and they could be heavy. Some limited sunshine and temperatures around 17’C. Breezy once more. Probably dry overnight – though not certain, around 11’C.

Very low confidence for Saturday, but current suggestions are that the low pressure will have spun back on itself, and veered back away from us. This means the slightly more likely outcome is sunny spells, albeit hazy at times – a small chance of a shower, around 17’C or so.

Very low confidence for Sunday once more, but current suggestions are that low pressure will be closer once more, so heavy showers more likely. Still around 17’C, give or take.

The somewhat more likely outcome for next week keeps us in a south-westerly or southerly flow, with low pressure often close to our west or south-west – so staying relatively warm for the time of year, with at least some rain at times. Windy at times too.

High pressure probably building by early November.

I still expect a good chunk of November to be drier than normal, and more settled. Probably slightly colder than normal with some overnight frosts – though perhaps temperatures will balance out as average. Later in November there are weak signals for something more unsettled.

December I currently also expect to be somewhat drier than normal, though conflicting signals on temperatures.

January and February are more likely to be wet and mild – though all will depend on whether we get a favourable sudden stratospheric warming event, or some other event occurs that changes currently expected weather patterns. We shall see.

Next full forecast will probably be on Friday.…

Friday 10th October 2022

Low pressure very much in charge – but the main areas of rain actually looking like they will miss us – however there is still some showers/showery rain to come. And then a southerly wind next week – which means it will be warm. Good news for those energy bills.

And, yes, a Friday morning forecast because I was home too late last night after a work social. And this might be a bit rushed as I have to start work early…and interview someone…with a hangover. Hmm.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph – I only have sunshine photographs in my inbox…so do forgive that it isn’t too appropriate!

Today will be mostly cloudy – some brightness at times this morning, some patchy light rain this afternoon, perhaps as early as midday. There should be some sunshine to end the day. Around 16’C in fairly light winds. Clear spells at first tonight, down to around 9’C – more cloud later in the night with one or two scattered showers around.

By Saturday there is a rather complex area of low pressure systems to our north-west – driving our weather. Part of this system will move south to position itself to the west of Spain/Portugal, and to drive the warmer southerly flow from Sunday onwards.

Sunny spells and scattered showers is the theme of the day – showers mostly quite hit and miss and not heavy, though there are suggestions of a more organised line of heavier showers roughly late afternoon. Rather breezy, 17’C or so. Clear skies overnight, down to around 7’C.

Sunday starts sunny. Gradually the sunshine will become hazier from the south, and some fair-weather cloud likely bubbles up in the afternoon too. Around 17’C in a southerly breeze. Heavy showers spreading up from the south in the evening and overnight – most places should catch some showers but maybe you’ll miss them all. A small chance of thunder. No lower than 13’C.

A bit of uncertainty to start Monday as there may be some lingering patchy rain from overnight. Otherwise hazy sunshine all day. Around 16’C. Overnight should be dry with clear spells – though a very small chance of importing a shower from the south. Down to around 8’C.

By Tuesday we have low pressure to the west of Spain/Portugal still driving our weather – sending much warmer air north, not too dissimilar to situations during the summer.

Of course, the sun is much weaker now so there is a limit to how warm it can get! But there should be plenty of hazy sunshine during Tuesday. Around 18’C. An outside chance of a heavy shower, but unlikely at this stage. Similar overnight, lots of high cloud, down to around 11’C – give or take.

Low pressure gets a bit closer on Wednesday but it should still remain dry with hazy sunshine. Some uncertainty on temperatures – somewhere in the range of 16’C to 20’C most likely. Heavy rain possible overnight, but timing uncertain.

From here details are more uncertain though the general pattern looks set – plus I should really be working now, so I’ll finish quickly.

Thursday and Friday should remain on the warm side, but there should be some spells of rain, probably heavy at times – quite an unstable flow, perhaps even a rumble of thunder mixed in. Temperatures more likely in the range of 16’C to 20’C – the latter would need sunny spells though, so it will depend on rain timings.

Have a good weekend.…

Monday 10th October 2022

A mixed start to the week but becoming increasingly unsettled as the jetstream sinks south and starts to head across the UK.

It is a tricky forecast with some uncertainty on where small low pressure systems track later in the week, so apologies for the uncertainty.

Thanks to Fay for the photograph.

Tonight sees mostly clear skies, a chilly night – widely down to around 5’C, with some sheltered spots going a little lower and perhaps a touch of ground frost.

The westerly flow continues for Tuesday though high pressure keeps things settled down here.

A sunny morning, some cloud in the afternoon but plenty of sunny spells. Reaching around 15’C. Cloud tending to thicken overnight, though still some clear spells at times, down to around 7’C.

Wednesday starts fairly cloudy but bright, with some hazy sunshine. More in the way of sunshine roughly through lunchtime hours, before cloud gradually thickens once more from the west as the afternoon goes on. Reaching around 16’C. Cloudy in the evening as a weather front pushes through – bringing some showery rain in places, but some places staying dry. Around 11’C.

Thursday is uncertain. A small low pressure system looks like it will pass to our south – but it is uncertain enough that rain could be this far north – say around a 30% chance of a spell of rain at some point. Otherwise quite cloudy with some hazy sunshine at times – and around 15’C.

Friday probably sees sunny spells with fair-weather cloud and one or two well-scattered showers. Around 17’C. I say probably, as again there is a chance of another small low over northern France – and the track isn’t certain yet.

Low pressure very much in charge by Saturday.

The more likely outcome sees sunny spells and some showers, possibly on the heavy side. A small chance instead of a spell of rain – but too early to sure how exactly the low pressure develops. Temperatures somewhere between 15’C and 18’C – again depending on exact positioning of the low pressure system, we could tap into some relative warmth from the south. Breezy. A chance of showers overnight.

Sunday again broadly similar, sunny spells, a few scattered shower around and quite windy. Around 16’C, maybe 17’C.

Monday probably sees much warmer air spread up from the south, with an associated low pressure system. Details uncertain – heavy rain or heavy showers possible – likewise temperatures between 18’C and 20’C also possible – though that will depend on getting a bit of sunshine.

Likely remaining unusually warm next week – though spells of heavy rain/heavy showers will be probable. Temperatures most likely in the range of 16’C and 20’C, depending on whether it is raining – an outside chance of say 22’C if the sun comes out for a spell of time. Overnight mild.…

Thursday 6th October 2022

Same kind of theme continues, high pressure close to our south, low pressure close to the north of the UK – a westerly flow with high pressure having more influence than low.

No photograph because I don’t have any.

Tonight sees some clear spells, some cloud, down to around 11’C.

Friday sees sunny spells and some fair weather cloud. One or two showers dotted around but many places missing them and having a pleasant day, until late afternoon anyway. Around 18’C and breezy. By late afternoon (ish) a band of heavy showers will cross, probably no more than an hour of rain. Mostly clear skies follow overnight with temperatures down to around 7’C.

Saturday sees a ridge of high pressure, though with an under-developed low pressure to our west.

Lots of sunshine in the morning, some fair weather cloud in the afternoon but still rather sunny. Temperatures down a bit, 16’C. Fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 6’C.

Sunday sees hazy sunshine all day – weather fronts staying over north-west UK and not really making inroads. 17’C and a little breezy. Cloud thickening overnight and that weather front will push down, though in a very weakened state – some places may get a little rain, others nothing.

Monday probably starts cloudy – there might be a spot of light rain. It will become mostly sunny, from roughly mid-morning, and reach around 16’C. A chilly night likely, down to around 4’C – sheltered spots might even scrape their first frost of the season.

More sunny spells for Tuesday, though more in the way of cloud at times, particularly in the afternoon. Reaching around 15’C. Probably fairly cloudy overnight, though uncertain and minimum temperatures hence very uncertain.

Wednesday looks like seeing a decaying weather front cross – so more in the way of cloud and probably a bit of rain at some point. Details not yet certain in terms of timings for the decaying weather front.

Confidence starts to fall apart by Thursday, though the chance of low pressure crossing the UK and bringing spells of wind and rain will increase. So at some point during Thursday or Friday, it looks like there will be a spell of wind and heavy rain – perhaps more than one spell.

The more likely outcome for next weekend sees low pressure in charge with a cool north-westerly or possibly northerly flow. Likely windy, rain possible – though it will depend on the position of low pressure. Otherwise sunny spells and scattered blustery showers.

Quite autumnal.

No strong signals for the rest of the month, though arguably more likely high pressure to the south/south-west having a bit more influence, so more dry days than wet days overall.…

Monday 3rd October 2022

An autumnal mix.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

A fairly cloudy night tonight, the odd bit of light rain possible, no lower than 13’C.

For Tuesday we have high pressure to the south of the UK, low pressure to the north of the UK – and we are stuck in the middle – both will have a waxing and waning influence during the week.

Plenty of cloud in the morning, some bits of sunshine at times, the odd light shower possible. A bit more in the way of hazy sunshine in the afternoon but plenty of cloud still. Warmish, around 19’C and breezy too. Cloudy, mild and windy overnight, 15’C.

Wednesday starts cloudy – a weather front will push east bringing some showery rain roughly mid/late morning and through lunchtime. Sunny spells follow for the afternoon but temperatures will drop. Around 18’C before the cloud/rain clears, a bit lower in the sunshine later. Windy in the morning, less so later. Clear skies overnight, down to around 7’C.

Thursday is a fairly sunny day. Some cloud at times, a small chance of a light shower lunchtime/afternoon but it should stay dry. 17’C, maybe 18’C. Some high cloud overnight, down to around 11’C and becoming quite windy.

Friday sees spells of hazy sunshine, with one or two scattered showers, say a 30% chance of catching one. 18’C or so and quite windy. A band of heavy showers spreading south-east during the evening, probably only for an hour or so. Clear skies will follow with temperatures down to around 7’C.

By Saturday we see a ridge of high pressure over the UK, but also a low pressure system to our west, which is tracking south of the main jetstream (which is to our north).

Saturday will see spells of sunshine, albeit often hazy, with some fair weather cloud too. Around 17’C. Quite a lot of high cloud overnight, down to around 8’C though very approximate.

Things are then uncertain due to the aforementioned low pressure system which is going to run south of the main jetstream. At some point it will likely bring some rain across, though whether that is Sunday or Monday is currently uncertain.

Next week looks changeable, spells of wind/rain on some days, dry with some sunshine on other days.

I should be back on Thursday evening.…