Friday 30th September 2022

Rain followed by possible rain but warmer.

Thanks to Zara for the photograph.

Early mist, fog and low cloud should lift to some bright spells this morning, but cloud will be thickening from the west with rain arriving around 2pm. Some heavy rain at times, some fairly strong gusts of wind too – clearing around 8/9pm. 15’C before the rain, though a couple of degrees lower during the rain. Clear spells overnight, no lower than 11’C.

For Saturday we are in a westerly flow, with low pressure towards Iceland.

Sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud during the day, a few showers passing through – say a 40% chance of catching one, and it could be on the heavy side, but they’ll move through quickly. Still quite windy but milder than it has been, 18’C, maybe 19’C. Clear skies at first though cloud tending to thicken during the night – possibility of rain later but read ahead, around 10’C.

Sunday is unusually uncertain for just two days away. A small area of low pressure looks like it will develop – it may head across the southern half of England, or it may stay to our south. It could arrive on Saturday night, or any point in the first half of Sunday – unless of course it stays to our south.

So conditions could be anything from a day of heavy rain, to a bright and sunny day – or something in between, say cloudy and bright, or cloudy with some light rain – I don’t think we’ll know where this little low will track until tomorrow morning.

If I’m pushed, I’d suggest the heavy rain outcome is the slightly more likely. The Met Office model take it over France, the European model takes it over the far south of England.

We can be more confident for Monday as high pressure pushes up from the south-west. Most likely we’d be looking at hazy sunshine, temperatures around 17’C. Probably fairly cloudy overnight, with temperatures around 12’C.

By Tuesday we’ll be dragging notably warmer air up from the south-west, but we’ll have a weather front close to our north-west.

A bit of uncertainty on details, depending on how close the weather front is, but more likely we’ll be rather cloudy, dry and warmish – get a bit of sunshine then 20’C is possible, but if not then closer to 18’C.

The weather front may arrive in the evening on Tuesday to bring some patchy rain – but again this is uncertain. More likely it arrives at some point on Wednesday – possibly bringing some heavy rain.

Uncertainty reigns regarding the rain. However, before it arrives, it will be much warmer than normal. Very possibly also becoming notably windy.

By Thursday we should see another attempt at high pressure trying to build from the south/south-west – a pattern I expect to repeat during October. This should mean dry, sunny spells, variable cloud and temperatures somewhere around 17’C – probably still quite windy.

Friday, something roughly like quite cloudy, some sunny spells, a small chance of a shower and still on the breezy side. Around 18’C.

Early suggestions for next weekend would see a fairly similar pattern, some sunny spells, some cloud, the odd shower and temperatures perhaps a tad cooler. Though not especially high confidence.

Apologies for the uncertainty on rain timings for Sunday and Tuesday evening/Wednesday…it is what is. I’ll update during the weekend if I get time.

Next week should be back to the usual Monday/Thursday evening cadence. Have a good weekend.…

Tuesday 27th September 2022

Good morning from cloudy Skopje – though at least it is warm over here, unlike in the UK with the cool northerly wind. Which is part of the story this week – the other part is that it is rather unsettled.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

Today sees the cooler northerly flow having moved down the country…well…more NNW than strict northerly, but similar enough.

Generally fairly cloudy today, some bright/sunny spells at times, a few scattered showers around in the wind – some places missing them, some places getting a few showers, unlikely to be heavy. Around 14’C in a fresh wind. Skies gradually clearing overnight, though the wind (albeit somewhat lighter) stopping the temperatures falling too much – down to around 7’C.

Wednesday starts fairly sunny. Quite a bit of fair weather cloud bubbling up from around late morning, one or two light/moderate scattered showers around but more likely you’ll stay dry, say a 30% chance of one. 15’C in a northerly breeze. Clear spells at first overnight, though a band of cloud and showery rain spreads down from the north a little after midnight, some heavy bursts probable. Around 9’C.

Thursday likely starts cloudy, perhaps still a bit of heavy showery rain to clear. The sun should come out at times, particularly later in the day, but further showers will be triggered, some heavy. Around 16’C and still breezy. Skies clearing overnight with temperatures down to around 6’C – mist/fog patches possible by dawn.

Friday starts to see things turn more westerly, with a large area of low pressure over Iceland.

Once any early mist/fog clears, it will become sunny, albeit hazy. Cloud gradually thickens during the day as a weather front approaches, reaching around 16’C. Rain arriving somewhere between 3pm and 6pm, a good 6-8 hours of persistent and heavy rain, with some strong gusty winds too. Clear skies before or around dawn, temperatures around 11’C.

Saturday starts sunny. It looks like either an either of heavy showers crosses during the afternoon, perhaps as early as lunchtime – or another band of general heavy rain. Around 16’C and breezy. Clear skies overnight, down to around 9’C.

Sunday looks a reasonable day as high pressure builds from the south-west. Sunny spells, some cloud and temperatures around 16’C.

Next week looks mostly dry with high pressure in charge – though a weak weather front may bring a little rain at some point midweek-ish. Warmer, we may even see 20’C again, which is pretty decent for early October.

I’m still broadly expecting October to be drier and warmer than normal – there should be some spells of cooler and somewhat unsettled weather mixed in, but no particular signs at the moment.

Next update will either be Thursday or Friday. Time to go put some shorts on in the hope things warm up for my last full day in Skopje. See you later!…

Thursday 22nd September 2022

Cooler and changeable – some sun, some cloud, some showers/rain. Actually much cooler next week.

Thanks to Jade for the photograph.

Tonight sees cloud continue to thicken with some bits of showery rain overnight, from roughly 11pm onwards. Mostly not heavy, some places perhaps seeing very little, though also the potential for a few heavy bursts towards dawn. Mild, 14’C.

Friday’s set-up sees high pressure to our west with a weak north-westerly flow – kind of typical for a La Niña autumn.

It starts cloudy, perhaps still some showery rain left – the overnight weather front only moving very slowly south-east. Some sunny spells for the afternoon, but also some showers developing too. Around 18’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 10’C.

Saturday sees spells of hazy sunshine, with quite a bit of cloud otherwise bubbling up, and a few scattered showers – some places staying dry. 17’C. Skies clearing overnight, down to around 8’C.

Sunday looks pleasant enough. Sunshine to start, some fair-weather cloud bubbling up and gradually during the afternoon it becomes hazier, as cloud thickens from the north-west. Cloud thickening overnight with some showery rain spreading down, from roughly midnight onwards. Around 11’C.

Monday sees a fairly potent northerly sweep down.

Cloudy to start with some patchy rain. This clears to sunny spells, fair-weather cloud and a scattering of showers – some places missing them but it does look like there will be plenty of them developing, on the heavy side too. 16’C but feeling much cooler in a fresh northerly wind. Uncertain on cloud amounts overnight, minimum temperatures somewhere between 5’C and 9’C – depending on cloud.

Again some uncertainty on cloud amounts for Tuesday, showers less likely though also uncertain – more likely maybe the odd lightish shower and temperatures somewhere between 12’C and 14’C in a cool northerly wind. A small chance of an area of rain overnight, otherwise a chilly night with temperatures down to somewhere between 5’C and 10’C, depending on uncertain cloud amounts.

Low confidence on details for Wednesday and Thursday, but broadly remaining on the cool side, some cloud, some sunny spells, some scattered showers – roughly around 14’C with fairly chilly nights.

Low confidence, again, for Friday and into next weekend though the somewhat more likely outcome sees a more westerly flow with some wind and rain at times, though temperatures picking back up, and perhaps warmish.

I’ll be away next week in sunny Skopje but you should still get a forecast…maybe Monday…maybe Sunday…maybe Tuesday…I’ll see what I feel like! I’m guessing nobody has any recommendations for Skopje…but if you do, let me know.…

Monday 19th September 2022

Well that was quite a spectacular procession earlier for The Queen’s funeral. Nothing quite so spectacular with the weather this week – a bit warmer and perhaps some showers by the weekend.

Thanks to Anthony for the photograph – actually from July, but a sunset of sorts seems appropriate. I do use sunset photos occasionally!

Quite a bit of cloud to start this evening, the odd light shower possible, but skies becoming fairly clear overnight – mist/fog forming in a few places by dawn, down to around 8’C.

Tuesday sees high pressure over the UK.

Some hazy sunshine in the morning, quite a lot of cloud bubbling up from around lunchtime onwards, though a few bright spells still likely. 19’C, maybe 20’C. Skies gradually clearing overnight, one or two mist/fog patches by dawn, down to around 11’C.

Wednesday morning looks rather sunny, some high cloud around. Quite a lot of cloud bubbling up from around lunchtime once more, though a bit more in the way of sunny spells than Tuesday. 21’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, mist/fog patches in a few places by dawn and reaching down to around 9’C.

Thursday sees a weather front trying to push down from the north-west, but it will stay far to our west for now. Hazy sunshine in the morning, some spells of thicker cloud in the afternoon but still broadly bright. Fairly warm, 21’C. Cloud gradually thickening overnight as that weather front slowly edges our way – rain possible by dawn, though timing uncertain. Around 13’C.

Details are sketchy for Friday, but broadly cloudy with some showery rain at some point (possibly heavy at times), as the weather front slowly edges south-east. Around 18’C to 20’C.

By Saturday we should start to see Hurricane Fiona having an indirect impact on our weather, as she travels north off the east coast of USA.

Most likely for Saturday we’ll be looking at sunny spells and a few scattered showers, temperatures around 18’C, give or take.

However there is a small chance that Friday’s showery rain is still hanging around, at least at first, which would lead to more in the way of cloud and some rain.

Sunday should be dry with some sunny spells, and temperatures around 18’C – give or take again.

Next week looks like seeing high pressure close to our west, but depending on what happens to the remnants of Hurricane Fiona, this could potentially see some much cooler air spread down from the north at some point next week.

A much cooler flow for at least a chunk of next week – perhaps maximums around 12’C to 14’C looks more likely, with some cloud and light showers possible, though some sunshine too.

However, it is also very possible that the cooler northerly flow doesn’t happen, or maybe doesn’t happen until next weekend – and we stay warmish with some sunshine until then.

Next full forecast will be on Thursday evening, at the usual time.…

Thursday 15th September 2022

Much cooler weather is arriving.

Thanks to Sue for the photograph.

Tonight sees plenty of cloud, though more in the way of clear spells towards dawn. Down to around 9’C. Might be the first time I’ve slept with the window closed for some time.

For Friday we are in a northerly flow, with low pressure over Scandinavia and high pressure close to our west.

Sunny spells and fair weather cloud all day, one or two isolated showers, say a 20% chance of catching one – more likely late morning and lunchtime period. Much cooler in the notable northerly wind, 16’C. Mostly clear skies overnight and a chilly night, down to around 5’C.

Saturday sees fairly long spells of sunshine, though a bit of fair weather cloud around, and the sunshine gradually becoming hazier during the day. Still on the cool side for September, 16’C in a fresh northerly breeze. Some clear spells overnight, though quite a bit of high/mid level cloud, down to around 7’C.

Sunday should start with some sunshine, but a lot of cloud will develop and it will often be rather overcast from around late morning – though some bright spells still. A small chance of a shower, though most places missing them. 17’C in that fresh northerly breeze. Some cloud and some clear spells overnight, a small chance of some mist/fog forming, down to around 7’C.

Bank Holiday Monday looks rather cloudy. Some brightness at times, more likely early morning and the evening, but rather cloudy otherwise – a small chance of a light shower. Around 17’C. Probably rather cloudy overnight, down to around 10’C.

By Tuesday we’ve cut off the cool source of air with high pressure now over the UK.

Still a lot of cloud around, though some sunny breaks. Temperatures nudging up to 18’C, maybe 19’C with a bit more sunshine than currently expected. Some clear spells overnight, down to around 10’C.

Wednesday should see the dry weather hang on, though uncertainty on cloud amounts – likely more cloud than sunshine. Warmer, around 20’C.

Thursday is where confidence becomes much lower. Suggestions of a weather front trying to cross during Thursday – no idea yet as to whether it will be successful, or perhaps struggle against a build of high pressure. Probably warm though.

Friday and next weekend could be anything – wet, dry, sunny, cloudy, warm, cool – I’ve no idea yet. Maybe if I’m pushed then something showery with normal temperatures is slightly more likely – but I don’t know why I’m writing this.

Hurricane Fiona should be to the east coast of USA by this point, so this will make everything uncertain for a while.…

Monday 12th September 2022

Warm to start the week but much cooler by the end of the week – with some chilly nights too.

An earlier forecast than normal, so I’m using the morning’s models so I won’t be quite as up to date as normal, but hopefully there won’t be any notable difference. Too much Sunday Funday once more.

Thanks to Jade for the photograph.

Fairly cloudy tonight, the odd bit of rain here and there as a weak weather front slips south, and a fairly warm night, down to around 17’C.

Tuesday sees the remnants of Hurricane Danielle to the west of Spain/Portugal, pushing up this warmer air.

It will also push the overnight weather front back north, mostly cloud in the morning with some brightness, though as the afternoon goes on showery bits of rain become more possible, and by the evening (perhaps by late afternoon) there should be some heavy showery rain around, a small chance of a rumble of thunder. A warm feel, around 20’C. Showery rain continuing overnight and only very slowly sinking back south and fading, around 14’C.

There is some uncertainty on the behaviour of this developing rain band so don’t be too shocked if maybe it doesn’t get this far north, or it arrives earlier, or it is heavier than described – the above is the more likely outcome.

Wednesday starts cloudy, there may still be some bits of rain still to clear but it will. Becoming sunny by around lunchtime, give or take, with increasing amounts of sunshine as the afternoon goes on. 21’C, warm but feeling fresher. Quite a lot of cloud overnight, some clear spells, down to around 12’C – an outside chance of a light shower.

By Thursday, we start to see a northerly flow, due to high pressure to our west – which is arguably at least partly caused by the position of ex-Hurricane Earl over the western Atlantic Ocean.

Quite a lot of cloud around though some limited sunny spells at times. An outside chance of a light shower in a northerly breeze. Reaching around 19’C, maybe squeezing a 20’C. Variable cloud overnight, though tending to be more clear spells later in the night, down to around 9’C.

Friday sees more in the way of sunshine. Still quite a bit of fair weather cloud around and an outside chance of a light shower. Temperatures around 17’C – cooler than it has been for some months, and the northerly wind making it feel cooler than that. Clear skies and a chilly night – down to around 6’C. Brrr.

Saturday sees high pressure remain in charge. A mixture of sunny spells and areas of cloud – it should be dry. 16’C, maybe 17’C – still a breeze though less so than on Friday. Some clear spells but also some cloudy spells overnight – down to around 8’C.

Sunday looks a cloudier day at this stage, though not especially high confidence. Some sunny spells at times, around a 25% chance of a light/moderate shower. 16’C, maybe 17’C and still a northerly breeze.

Most likely very similar for Monday, some cloud, some sunshine with a fairly small chance of a light/moderate shower, and around 17’C.

The more likely outcome for the rest of next week sees high pressure drift east, so cutting off the cool northerly flow and temperatures should increase back to warm, with some sunny spells.

The week after tentatively looks more changeable with some rain/showers around – so whether the prior weekend hangs onto the warm/sunny weather, or is when things change back to more changeable, is borderline.

Right…back to bed. Have a good week.…

Thursday 8th September 2022

Well, I don’t know how to start this post, given the passing of The Queen.

Low pressure is still in charge, but is slowly moving east, slowly decaying and the showers will gradually reduce in volume and frequency. And then it will become very warm – and uncertain.

I considered going without a photograph today, but thanks to Fiona for a photograph that inadvertently sums up the day.

A mostly cloudy night with a few heavy showers around, though less than during the day – some places staying dry. Down to around 14’C.

Friday sees low pressure still around though edging to our east.

A cloudy start, but the sun will come out – and the showers will soon develop once more. Plenty of them, most places catching a few, a very small chance that you may miss all of them – heavy or very heavy, thunder very possible. Temperatures down a notch to around 20’C. Mostly dry overnight though a shower possible, some clear spells but plenty of cloud and temperatures down to around 14’C.

Saturday starts fairly cloudy. Some sunny spells developing – a few showers around but many places staying dry, and any showers shouldn’t be heavy either. By late afternoon there should be pretty decent spells of sunshine. Warm, 22’C. Clear skies overnight, though some mist/fog patches possible by dawn, down to around 12’C.

Sunday sees a southerly flow pick up. Hazy sunshine to start the day, quite a bit of general cloud bubbling up through the middle portion of the day, but staying bright – and then more in the way of sunshine later. Warm, 23’C. High cloud overnight, down to around 14’C.

By Monday we are in a more complex situation, with the remnants of Hurricane Danielle to the west of Portugal, pumping warmer air up – but also another low close to our north.

It’s a very close call but more likely we see hazy sunshine and temperatures very warm, if not quite hot – say 26’C. However rain will not be far to our north, and it is a complex situation so uncertainty is high for Monday.

Tuesday is again uncertain – a greater chance of some showers around, and probably very warm.

I’m not really into doing this right now…but it is also really uncertain for next week. Or maybe I’m struggling to analyse.

I think broadly next week should see high pressure be more likely to establish itself as the week goes on, the risk of showers fading towards the end of next week. Staying warm.

Low confidence for next weekend, but high pressure more likely than low pressure.

That will have to do, I’m afraid.

RIP Queenie.…

Monday 5th September 2022

Low pressure is sat close to the west of the UK – so plenty of heavy showers ahead, but also warm with some sunny spells at times too.

Thanks to Jo for the photograph – not very close to describing the weather ahead, but hey. Clearly need more showers.

This evening starts dry, but an area of heavy/very heavy showers will move through later this evening, perhaps with thunder too – as usual for showers, some places missing out and staying dry. Some clear spells after this, and dropping to around 15’C.

Tuesday continues to see low pressure sat close to our west, cut off from the jetstream with no reason to move.

Heavy showers possible from not long after dawn, and this continues all day – most places catching several heavy showers, possibly very heavy with hail and/or thunder, a small chance of some notably strong gusts of wind too. Suggestions of a cluster of heavy showers both late morning and late afternoon, but take this as a rough guide – showers possible at any point. Fairly warm still, some sunshine in between showers, 21’C or so. Variable cloud overnight, the odd heavy shower still possible and down to around 14’C.

Wednesday again looks fairly cloudy with plenty of heavy showers, pretty much from the go. Showers could be very heavy, hail and/or thunder possible – a suggestion of less showers for late afternoon and the evening, but that doesn’t mean no showers. Most places should catch a few showers, but you could stay dry – and all should see at least some sunny spells, if hazy. Reaching around 21’C. Further heavy showers possible overnight, some clear spells, down to around 14’C.

Thursday sees lots of heavy showers once more, as low pressure creeps slowly further east. Some sunny spells, but the main story is the heavy/very heavy showers once more, most places getting several showers throughout the day – hail and/or thunder possible. Temperatures down a notch, say 20’C. Showers likely fade overnight, some clear spells for a time but becoming cloudy as the night goes on, a small chance of some mist/fog by dawn. 14’C.

By Friday, our low pressure is fading somewhat, and now centred over East Anglia – very slowly drifting east.

Plenty of cloud and plenty of heavy/very heavy showers breaking out once more – most places catching a few showers though I wouldn’t rule out the chance of missing them all. Hail and/or thunder again possible. Some limited sunny spells at times, reaching around 20’C. Showers mostly fading overnight, though perhaps some lightish showers around, down to around 14’C.

Saturday should be a reasonable day – showers all week than mostly dry at the weekend, how blessed has the weather been this year?! Plenty of cloud around in the morning, the odd shower possible still but they shouldn’t be heavy. Sunshine amounts should increase in the afternoon and we’ll reach around 22’C. Clear skies overnight, though fog may form in places towards dawn, down to around 12’C.

Sunday becomes more uncertain due to the behaviour of (what will be) ex-hurricane Danielle, to our west.

Maybe the slightly more likely outcome is that she’s to our west and helps push warmer air north, so we get a pleasant day, with temperatures around 24’C, maybe more, with sunshine or hazy sunshine.

But very low confidence. She could easily push across the UK as an ex-hurricane, bringing wind and rain instead.

And there isn’t much point in going any further, until we know what she does.…

Autumn 2022 Weather Forecast

Welcome to my Autumn 2022 weather forecast.

Finally it’s time to cool down after a boiling hot summer – I think summer 2022 will go down in history as one of the best ever summers, assuming you count sunshine and heat as “best”.

Regular readers will be aware that seasonal forecasting is fraught with huge amounts of challenges, I hope to get the main themes right, and more details right than wrong – but sometimes I get it completely wrong.

Thankfully my summer 2022 forecast was pretty good – including picking up the heatwave potential for the middle of July and suggesting “some unusually hot weather”. August wasn’t so well-forecasted, but there were very conflicting signals when I wrote the forecast, and I stressed the high levels of uncertainty. Once we got into July, I was pretty confident that August would see more hot and sunny weather.

And that is a difficulty – a certain type of weather might be more probable in 3 month’s time, in my view, but then actual weather events between times change my expectations. So do take this forecast with a good bucket of salt.

Thanks to Isabel for the photograph – a donation of £15.00 has been made to Readifood as a token of my appreciation – and thank you to everyone who sends in photographs. I know I don’t always reply, but I do appreciate them.


Background signals

Firstly, sea surface temperatures are notably higher than usual around the UK, so this increases the chances of warmer than normal weather this autumn.

La Niña continues, and this tends to increase the chances of high pressure close to the west of the UK in late autumn.

The Atlantic hurricane season was expected to be busier than normal, though so far is not, and ex-hurricanes (or tropical storms) can affect previously-expected weather patterns, depending on how they interact with the jetstream. And they increase uncertainty, mostly for September.


September starts unsettled, with low pressure close to the west of the UK, bringing warmth, some humidity but also plenty of heavy/very heavy showers, possibly with some thunder. Some warm sunshine/hazy sunshine in between though.

The middle of the month is more uncertain, due to some Atlantic hurricanes/tropical storms far to our west. My current expectation is for a short dry spell, perhaps a little on the cool side, followed by something warmer but wetter once more. A brief hot spell cannot be ruled out during this period.

Towards the end of the month, a reversion back to what we had at the beginning feels more likely, some dry/sunny warm/very warm days mixed in but plenty of showers, and possibly some general rain too. A trend to it being drier towards the very end of the month.

Overall I’m expecting above-average rainfall (the shock!), above-average temperatures and somewhat below-average sunshine.

Confidence level 70% – though lower for mid-month.


October looks a much drier month, with the Azores high often building across. It likely becomes cooler, perhaps a bit below-average for a while, with north-westerly or maybe weak northerlies at times. Also quite cloudy, though some sunshine – and some chilly nights. The odd weak weather front but nothing too much expected in the way of rain.

Suggestions that the second half will be warmer than normal, with high pressure stronger over Europe and more of a south-westerly flow – though this likely means at least some rain/showers at times, though I still think drier than normal overall.

Overall for the month, I’m expecting below-average rainfall, slightly above-average temperatures and around average sunshine.

Confidence level around 70% again.


For November I’m still expecting high pressure to be dominant close to our south and especially to our west, which means cooler north-westerly/northerly flows more likely than normal – not too dissimilar to the last two Novembers.

So some overnight frosts and chilly but sunny days. But also some areas of rain/showers pushing down at times, from a fairly active jetstream.

Suggestions that the low pressure may set up close to the south-east at times in the latter half of November, a weak suggestion at the moment, but this kind of set-up could bring a wetter than normal end, and colder than normal – perhaps even some wintriness.

Overall I’m expecting slightly above-average rainfall, slightly below-average temperatures and around average sunshine.

Confidence level around 60% – bit of an unusual signal for the end of November so a bit wary there.

Winter Thoughts

Clearly winter is a long way away, though it is looming – perhaps more than most seasons, given the energy bills.

Early suggestions are that December is on the dry side, with a mixture of mild and cold spells.

January and February currently look more likely to be on the wet and mild side.

Well, that’s all. Remember – some of this will be wrong. The perils of long-term weather forecasting. But hopefully more is right than wrong.

If you want a summary – then a warm and wet September, a dry October and a mixed though chilly November.…

Thursday 1st September 2022

Autumn has arrived, and right on cue, so does the rain. Well, heavy showers – but also it will be very warm too.

Thanks to “Facebook User” for the photograph. For some reason I don’t have any rain photographs that I can use…so this is the closest I have.

This evening sees heavy showers spreading up from the south – some heavy, a very small chance of a thunder. Fewer showers around by dawn, and unlikely to be heavy. A fairly warm night, 17’C.

Friday sees low pressure heading down from Iceland as the jetstream is forced south – and this merges with a slack area of low pressure that pushed up from France (slightly earlier than I previously forecasted).

The morning will be mostly dry with some hazy sunshine. A few scattered heavy showers in the afternoon, say a 25% chance of catching one, but otherwise some decent sunny spells and some cloud. Very warm, 25’C, maybe 26’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 15’C – maybe one or two mist/fog patches by dawn in more sheltered spots.

Saturday starts with hazy sunshine. A few scattered heavy showers developing from around late morning, around a 35% chance of catching one or two, but these push north fairly swiftly, to leave a mostly dry afternoon with hazy sunshine. Very warm, 24’C, maybe 25’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, mostly dry though a light shower possible – down to around 15’C.

By Sunday our low pressure system is well-defined and to the west of the UK, where it stays for a few days, as it is completely cut off from the jetstream and has nowhere to go. Also by this point, there is a tropical storm further west in the Atlantic, wandering around aimlessly. Quite an interesting set-up.

Sunday sees a band of heavy showers erratically pushing east and veering north. Some spots probably staying dry, others getting some general rain, others getting some heavy showers – it looks like quite a mish-mash of outcomes. Otherwise rather cloudy, warm with a little hazy sunshine at times. Temperatures somewhere between 22’C and 24’C. Heavy/very heavy showers probable overnight, though some places may miss them – a fairly warm night at around 17’C.

Confidence on details a bit lower for Monday, so don’t be surprised if wetter or warmer or sunnier than forecast, but broadly I think more in the way of hazy sunshine, and fewer showers – say a 40% chance of one or two heavy showers. Around 24’C, give or take. A stronger signal for very/very heavy showers in the evening and/or overnight, but still uncertain at this stage.

Further heavy showers likely for every day from Tuesday to Friday, as the low pressure very slowly edges east and takes residence over the UK.

No point in attempting details on any particular day at this stage, but showers could be frequent, very heavy and/or thundery – a spell of general heavy rain possible at some point too. Around 22’C to 24’C – still some sunny spells at times. A small chance of overnight mist/fog.

Tentative suggestions of drier conditions next weekend with low pressure fading away and pushing away to our east. Saturday still a chance of showers, Sunday more confidence on some autumnal sunshine. Still likely on the warm side.

However – with two or three tropical storms/hurricanes expected further west in the Atlantic, there is higher uncertainty than usual for next weekend and onwards, though my working theory right now is that they’ll help to promote high pressure over the UK.

My autumn forecast will be issued either this Friday or Saturday, depending on my motivation levels after work tomorrow!…