Monday 29th August 2022

A dry and warm week ahead but low pressure is heading our way for the weekend…but it might also cause it to become warmer.

Decided to take advantage of the bank holiday to do the forecast with the morning models, as I’ve had too much fun this weekend to expect to be awake by time the evening models are published.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

Today will be rather cloudy, though a few sunny breaks particularly later in the day. A very, very small chance of a light shower and it will reach around 22’C. Some clear spells overnight, some cloud too, down to around 13’C.

The general picture by Tuesday sees a fairly strong build of high pressure to the north of the UK, a hint of low pressure over the continent, and a warmish easterly flow for us.

Tuesday starts with hazy sunshine. Quite a lot of cloud will bubble up and spread west, but there will be some sunny spells at times – more cloud than sunshine overall. One or two showers may develop, say a 20% chance of catching one, they should be fairly light. Warm, 23’C in a notable easterly breeze. Clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

Wednesday starts rather sunny and there will be more sunshine than the previous two days. Still some cloud bubbling up, but overall throughout the day there should be a bit more sunshine than cloud. Very warm, 24’C, and still that easterly breeze. Mostly clear skies overnight and temperatures down to around 13’C once more.

Thursday remains similar, some good sunny spells, some fair-weather cloud bubbling up and very warm once more, 24’C, maybe 25’C. And still the notable easterly breeze. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

And then things get more interesting. The high pressure block to our north effectively stops the jetstream and forces it south, towards the UK.

This sends low pressure towards the UK, which also interacts a bit with the weak low pressure over the continent, and we end up with low pressure close to the UK by Friday.

Some weather models take the low pressure system and sit it over the UK – which would mean temperatures in the range of 17’C to 21’C, and frequent heavy showers, or general heavy rain.

But some weather models, take it a little to our west – which would still result in some heavy/very heavy showers and possibly some general heavy/very heavy rain, but would also increase temperatures (when not raining) to the range of 22’C to 28’C – along with more humidity and a reasonable chance of some thunder. I think this outcome is slightly more likely.

Every day from here is subject to high amounts of uncertainty – until we know where the low forms.

So Friday, should broadly still be a reasonable day, some sunny spells, some cloud, likely very warm and possibly humid. 25’C, give or take. Around a 20% chance of a heavy shower. Probably fairly cloudy overnight, a small chance of a heavy shower and down to around 15’C.

Saturday looks to have a higher chance of some heavy/very heavy showers, say a 50% chance or so, a small chance of them being thundery. Probably some hazy sunshine with temperatures more likely in the range of 24’C to 28’C – but don’t be shocked if lower, as it will depend on positioning of the low pressure which we don’t yet know.

Sunday has a higher chance of heavy/very heavy showers, say a 70% chance – there could instead be a band of general heavy rain moving up from the south. A small chance of thunder, and temperatures broadly in the range of 22’C to 28’C, depending on showers/rain activity, and the position of the low pressure. Vague, I know, but it is what it is.

It’s pretty pointless attempting details for next week, so I won’t, but low pressure should remain on the scene. Assuming it did set up to the west of us, then expect more very warm/quite hot conditions, some humidity, and some heavy/very heavy showers – and probably some general heavy rain at times. But also some hazy sunshine at other times. Small chances of thunder mixed in.

Not sure where we go from there – I would suggest that it will stay unsettled through the middle of September, that is the form horse, but it now looks fairly likely that we’ll have our first major Atlantic hurricane of the season (I think…unless I’ve missed one) towards the east coast of the USA, so maybe that will have an effect on our weather patterns…maybe it will push the Azores high east and settle things down, or maybe it will invigorate the jetstream and bring wind and rain our way…just conjecture, I have no idea yet.

Next update will be on Thursday evening. Autumn forecast will probably be Friday evening or Saturday morning…depending on…well…life.


Autumn Forecast Photograph Request

Well, it’s that time to think about doing my autumn forecast, covering September, October and November.

But, as always, I need a photograph.

Hi there.

Usual requirements apply:

  1. It must feature autumn weather. There are various types of autumnal weather that you can choose from – I’ll try to choose one that fits my forecast as best as possible.
  2. It must feature the local area.
  3. The length of the photograph must be longer than the height.

Whoever’s photograph I choose will adorn the forecast and also be the cover photograph on Facebook for the next 3 months.

And I will donate £15 to a charity of their choice. But please make it something the internet won’t start arguments about – fluffy kittens good, charities involved in politics bad. That kind of thing. I’ll contact you if I choose your photograph.

Please add them to the Facebook post or e-mail them.

I will probably do the autumn forecast Friday or Saturday, I guess. The usual twice-weekly forecast will be later today…assuming I overcome my hangover enough to write another post.…

Thursday 25th August 2022

It was nice to get some proper rain, wasn’t it? But that’s it for now, no heatwave conditions but plenty of fair and warm/very warm conditions ahead.

Thanks to Jessica for the photograph.

Tonight sees mostly clear skies, at least once the remnants of the cloud from the weather front has cleared. A small chance of a little fog in places before dawn, down to around 13’C.

Friday sees the Azores High trying to build once again…though not the strongest build ever. Thankfully (for those of us who want fine weather), the Atlantic is still very weak, so even a weak build of high pressure can keep out the weaker lows.

Sunny to start the day, cloud will bubble up from around late morning, and the lunchtime period into early afternoon looks rather cloudy – a bit of brightness. Sunshine amounts should increase later in the afternoon once more. Warm, 23’C or so. Some cloud overnight, perhaps a shower too, 15’C.

Saturday sees sunny spells and a reasonable amount of cloud too. A few scattered showers, could be on the sharp side, more likely in the morning or early afternoon – around a 40% chance of catching one or two. Warm, around 23’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

Sunday starts sunny. Fair weather cloud bubbling up from around lunchtime, and also some high cloud to make the remaining sunny spells hazy. A very small chance of an innocuous shower, but most likely staying dry. Warm, around 23’C with a bit of an easterly breeze. High cloud overnight, down to around 14’C.

Bank Holiday Monday starts with sunny spells, though likely hazy at times. Quite a bit of cloud likely to blow in from the North Sea from late morning onwards, likely more cloud than sunshine but still a bit of sunshine. Temperatures down a notch, 21’C, maybe 22’C. Fairly clear skies overnight and down to around 13’C.

Tuesday continues in the same fashion, quite a lot of cloud blowing in from the North Sea, but some sunny spells. Around 21’C. There is a small chance that low pressure over France may be far north enough for a heavy shower, but no more than a 10% chance right now. Probably quite cloudy overnight and down to around 13’C ish.

Wednesday is probably on the cloudy side, though uncertain – temperatures around 20’C.

This is probably about as far as I can go with any reasonable confidence. The afore-mentioned low pressure system over France may by Thursday/Friday next week be edging close enough to us to increase shower chance and also increase temperatures – but low confidence.

Very low confidence for next weekend. A very warm/quite hot solution is somewhat more likely than other temperature regimes, and dry is slightly more likely than showery. Otherwise anything goes really.

A trend towards something more unsettled is still the somewhat more likely outcome after next weekend, though a long way from guaranteed. Though temperatures likely to remain above normal, mostly.

Interestingly there has been no hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year – and a busier than normal season was expected. Hurricanes can shift the expected weather patterns, especially in August and September, so uncertainty is often higher than normal.

But why so quiet this year? My assumption is the amount of sand drifting across from Africa – and I wonder if this has also stopped low pressure formation in Europe? As we’ve had some Saharan sand episodes during the summer. Just conjecture…not something I’ve looked into or have time to. Hopefully someone will do it for me!

Enjoy the bank holiday.…

Wednesday 24th August 2022 – Overnight Rain Update

When I last wrote, it was uncertain if overnight rain would be this far west – a 25% chance I thought. It now looks like it probably will be this far west.

Basically, thunderstorms are currently developing over the Bay Of Biscay, triggered by a cold front to the west which is pushing east. This same cold front will trigger further thundery downpours closer to the UK, say over the English Channel which will move north-east overnight, covering much of the SE quarter of England – but not all.

Still some uncertainty, as there always is in situations of developing thunderstorms – things are developing and moving this way, but Reading is roughly on the likely western-most boundary (though this boundary has moved west a bit on the models during the course of today) – which means we should get at least some overnight showers, potentially heavy/very heavy. And there is a small chance of thunder/lightning.

Timing from roughly 1/2am onwards – possibly still some rain in the morning too.

That is the most likely outcome anyway.

The main action in terms of torrential downpours, possible frequent lightning and localised flooding should be further east, over London, Essex, Kent, etc – it isn’t impossible that the main action is over Reading and similar central areas, but far more likely London, etc.

Nothing else has really changed – fresher but still very warm from tomorrow into the weekend, sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud and just very small chances of a stray shower.…

Monday 22nd August 2022

Quite hot this week, but otherwise mixed – some cloud, some sun and maybe some showers.

The bank holiday weekend not yet a done deal…but is looking promising for dry and warm weather.

Thanks to Paul for the photograph.

This evening will be cloudy with bits of showery rain in places – though many places continuing to stay dry. Some clear spells later in the night and a fairly warm night, down to around 18’C.

Tuesday sees low pressure not too far away from our north-west, and highish pressure over Europe – and we’ll be sourced our air from the hot continent.

Generally rather cloudy, some bright spells at times and more in the way of sunny spells later in the day. Likely dry, though a small chance of a shower in the morning or around lunchtime. Quite hot, despite all the cloud, reaching around 26’C, maybe 27’C. Fairly cloudy and warm overnight, probably no lower than 19’C for most.

Wednesday starts rather cloudy, though some hazy sunshine at times in the morning. Gradually during the afternoon sunshine amounts increase, though there is a small chance of an isolated heavy shower developing – most likely you stay dry. Quite hot, somewhere between 26’C and 28’C, depending on sunshine amounts. Some uncertainty overnight – a weak weather front crosses bringing mostly cloud, though that same weather front looks like it may trigger some storms over France, so a small chance of importing the remnants towards dawn – heavy rain the main risk, though I stress (again) the small chance. Warm again, down to around 18’C, give or take.

Uncertain for Thursday, due to the aforementioned storm remnants from France. More likely the storms tracked further east of the UK, perhaps the far east of England – and we’ll see decent spells of sunshine, possible hazy to start, with temperatures around 25’C or so. The less likely outcome sees the western part of the storm remnants over us, for part or maybe even all of the day, with mostly heavy rain – a small chance of thunder. Chances of the two outcomes are roughly 75/25 in favour of a sunny day. Mostly clear skies overnight and fresher too, around 12’C.

The bank holiday is not yet a done deal – but most likely high pressure will be developing over or close to the UK, so most likely there is plenty of fine weather.

Reasonably good spells of sunshine on Friday, some fair weather cloud, a small chance of an isolated heavy shower – but you’d be pretty unlucky (lucky?) to catch one. Around 25’C, give or take. Clear spells overnight and down to around 15’C.

Saturday looks to see a mixture of sunny spells and fair weather cloud. Perhaps more cloud than sunshine overall, though exact details still to be determined, and once again a small chance of an isolated heavy shower – but unlikely. Around 25’C, give or take.

The more likely outcome for Sunday keeps it fine, with sunny spells and fair weather cloud – though details on how much cloud, any chance of a shower and quite how warm it will be, are sketchy. Around 26’C, would be a reasonable estimate for maximum temperatures.

The more likely outcome for Bank Holiday Monday is very similar to Sunday – again details to be confirmed, but very warm/quite hot, some sunshine, some cloud, a small chance of a shower.

I say most likely for Sunday/Monday in particular, as the models have toyed with bringing a shallow low pressure down from the north-west during the weekend, and have also toyed with the idea of a thundery low (perhaps Wednesday night’s) being close to our east – either of which could bring a spell of rain. But neither is likely, just bear in mind that the bank holiday weather isn’t nailed on.

No particular signals for the rest of next week – though there are suggestions of something more changeable, with showers and rain becoming more likely after the beginning of September. We might even end up outright unsettled for a spell in the middle of September. Low confidence at this stage…but the signals are growing.

Maybe make the most of this coming weekend. Autumn is coming.…

Thursday 18th August 2022

Changeable, but generally very warm with a fair amount of sunshine.

I hope you enjoyed the showers/downpours – it was a bit hit and miss, as expected, but most places did get some long-awaited rain.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

Sunny spells this evening but cloudy overnight as a weather front crosses, bringing a little bit of showery rain. Another fairly warm night at around 18’C.

For Friday, the general picture sees low pressure near Iceland, and the Azores high trying to nudge in from the south-west.

Any remnants of the overnight weather front will very quickly clear to sunny spells. Some fair weather cloud, particularly in the afternoon, and still very warm at 24’C or so. Clear skies overnight and a fresher night, down to around 13’C. Phew.

Saturday starts sunny. Quite a bit of fair weather cloud bubbling up from mid-morning onwards, likely more cloud than sunshine overall. A scattering of fairly light showers – though many places avoiding them. Very warm once more, 23’C, maybe 24’C in a westerly breeze. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

On my previous forecast, I thought the slightly more likely outcome for Sunday would be rain spreading across – however the expected low pressure is slower to develop, so Sunday will actually be fine. Hazy sunshine in the morning, thicker cloud in the afternoon but still some brightness – the odd shower possible. Around 23’C, maybe 24’C. Potential for a small area of showers to cross in the evening – uncertain, then showery rain erratically crossing from the west overnight – timings uncertain. Some heavy bursts possible. Down to around 15’C.

Details a bit hazy for Monday, but generally fairly cloudy with showers or showery rain – some heavy bursts possible, but also there will be spells where it is dry, especially later in the day – some late sunshine possible. Not 100% confidence yet though on this. Around 22’C – give or take.

Tuesday probably sees more cloud than sunshine overall, but there will be some sunny spells. Showers still possible, mostly in the morning, though plenty of places missing them – and not likely to be heavy. A little warmer, 24’C or so.

Wednesday has some uncertainty – a weak weather front should cross at some point bringing cloud and a bit of rain – but timing uncertain. Until it arrives, then it will be very warm. perhaps quite hot – between 23’C and 27’C. If it arrives in the morning – then sunny for later in the day, if it arrives in the afternoon/evening, then hazy sunshine beforehand.

Thursday sees the Azores high trying to build across us again – trying! Fairly low confidence, but the more likely outcome is a sunny and warm day.

Friday and into the bank holiday weekend continues the theme of the Azores high trying to build from the west. So the more likely outcome sees good spells of very warm/quite hot sunshine – possibly hot hot.

However. There is a chance that low pressure develops close to our east at some point during this period – possibly as early as Thursday, and if close enough, it could bring some heavy rain/showers. And likely lower temperatures – if this occurs, it probably wouldn’t be for the whole weekend – so some part of the extended weekend should be warm and sunny, at worst.

Will take a few more days to resolve which way the bank holiday weekend goes.…

Monday 15th August 2022

The breakdown has begun – and we should all see some downpours in the next couple of days.

Thanks to James for the photograph – I do actually have a suitable photograph saved ready for when the sunshine stopped.

Scattered heavy showers this evening – possibly with a little thunder, possibly some torrential rain should you catch a shower. Fairly cloudy overnight so it remains warm, and now a bit humid too – likely no lower than 18’C. A shower possible by dawn.

Tuesday sees a kind of slack low pressure loosely developed over NW Europe, including the UK.

Hazy sunshine to start the day, with the odd shower possible. From around lunchtime onwards, heavy showers breaking out widely – torrential downpours easily possible, thunder/lightning possible, a small chance of hail. More likely you’ll catch at least a couple – but some places could stay dry (or mostly dry). Catch a particularly torrential downpour, and localised flooding will be possible. Still quite hot and humid, reaching around 26’C – give or take. Showers still possible in the evening, though less likely and less likely to be so heavy. Fairly cloudy overnight – and towards dawn it looks like heavy/very heavy and possibly thundery showers may break out more widely – some uncertainty on this though. Another fairly warm night, down to around 17’C.

Wednesday has some uncertainty – a band of heavy/very heavy showers/showery rain will probably be somewhere over the south of England, thunder possible – and this will erratically and slowly move south-east so becoming drier as the day goes on. Most likely this includes the local area, but there is a small chance this band develops further south and we end up with a mostly cloudy day instead. Temperatures around 21’C, give or take. Mostly cloudy overnight – a shower possible but not likely. Down to around 15’C.

Thursday sees some pretty decent sunny spells – though hazy from around lunchtime, and a fair amount of fair-weather cloud too. We should reach around 25’C. Cloudy overnight with a weather front likely to push through, though some uncertainty on this. The more likely outcome does see some heavy showery rain overnight with it clearing by dawn, though perhaps instead it moves across more slowly, with only some bits of showery rain left by time it arrives – say around dawn. Another fairly warm night, around 17’C.

Friday likely starts cloudy, depending on how the overnight weather front progressed – if it progressed slowly then there may be some showery rain in the morning too. Sunny spells will follow, and temperatures up to around 26’C – give or take and depending on how quickly that weather front clears. Mostly clear skies overnight, and finally a much fresher night, down to around 12’C.

By Saturday we have the Azores High pushing in from the south-west again, but the jetstream showing more life to our north.

For Saturday it means decent spells of sunshine in the morning, though more cloud at times in the afternoon – temperatures around 23’C. Cloud thickening overnight, down to around 13’C.

Sunday is uncertain, but the more likely outcome sees rain spreading across from the west – yes, a proper band of rain. Windy, warmish and humid too.

Next week likely starts very warm/quite hot, though uncertain otherwise – I’d guess a mixture of sunny spells and showers.

Growing suggestions that high pressure settles things down in time for the Bank Holiday weekend – far from certain but the more likely outcome. Temperatures more likely very warm/quite hot – but proper hot very plausible once more. Possibly with some thundery showers at some point.

Generally I still think changeable conditions more likely towards the end of August and beginning of September, but overall balancing out at hotter, sunnier and drier than normal.…

Monday 15th August 2022 – Shower/Thunderstorm Chances

As is normally the case, the thundery breakdown is difficult to predict in detail. But it is starting.

I don’t think we are best placed today for showers or thunderstorms – they could feasibly break out anywhere in the UK, but I’d favour eastern coastal regions, and much of the west/north of the UK as having the better chances today.

That said, I’d still suggest around a 30% chance today of catching a shower – which could easily be thundery. Maybe it would just be some large spots of rain, maybe it would be a torrential downpour – or something in between. Catch a torrential downpour, then localised flooding will be possible.

The more likely time to catch one may be early afternoon when sea breeze convergence looks possible to be favourable in our area – or during the evening. Late afternoon less likely, but certainly possible.

Of course, a 30% chance of catching a shower means a 70% chance of staying dry, and temperatures will reach around 30’C or so, assuming sufficient sunshine – and there will be sunshine for all, albeit hazy at times.

Really, it will be a case of watching the skies and the radar/lightning detector. I can give you my analysis of the chances, as I have done, as can others – but we won’t really know until we see the clouds going up – if they do.

Tuesday and Wednesday should have higher chances of showers/downpours/thunder – full update this evening.…

Thursday 11th August 2022

I read earlier that a drought may be officially declared tomorrow. So I guess it is ironically appropriate that finally there is a chance of some heavy showers next week.

Alas, though showers will break out – the nature of showers means that some places could miss out. And heavy showers onto such dry ground isn’t ideal – the ground is so dry that if we catch any particularly torrential downpours, the rain will run off and bring the potential for localised flooding.

We should get some showers, we could get a thunderstorm – but details still to be determined as to how widespread the showers will be next week.

Until then – very hot and sunny.

Thanks to Isabel for the photograph.

Tonight sees clear skies and a warm night, down to around 18’C.

High pressure remains in charge for Friday.

Glorious sunshine all day and very hot, reaching 34’C or so in a notable easterly breeze. Clear skies overnight and another warm night, likely no lower than 19’C for most.

Saturday sees glorious sunshine almost all day – though a little bit of fair-weather cloud will likely bubble up later in the afternoon. Very hot, 34’C, maybe 35’C. High cloud moving up from the south in the evening and overnight, which will keep temperatures up overnight – probably no lower than 20’C for most.

Sunday sees long spells of sunshine, though there will be high cloud at times which may make the sunshine hazy – notably in the afternoon, some more fair-weather cloud may also bubble up in the afternoon. I cannot totally rule out a shower for late afternoon or evening, but very unlikely. Very hot, around 34’C. Another warm night with high/mid-level cloud at times, probably no lower than 20’C.

By Monday we have low pressure developing broadly somewhere over the southern half of the UK.

Details become more sketchy from here, but broadly, hazy sunshine in the morning, some scattered heavy showers, possibly thundery, developing in the afternoon. An educated guess would suggest around a 30% chance of catching one or two. Still on the hot side, and humid too, somewhere between 27’C and 30’C. Some clear spells overnight and a bit less warm, roughly down to 18’C.

Tuesday is similarly tricky. Still on the hot and humid side, reaching somewhere between 26’C and 29’C. Heavy showers, possibly thundery will break out in places over England, though how widespread and how likely we are to get any is uncertain. Put it down as a 50% chance, if you wish. Appreciate this isn’t too helpful, but until we know how the low pressure will develop, details on showers will remain uncertain. The shower chance remains overnight and it should be feeling fresher, say 15’C or so.

Wednesday will be notably fresher, with temperatures closer to 24’C or so. Heavy showers still possible, though more likely in the morning as the low pressure (probably) sinks further south.

The more likely outcome for Thursday sees some cloud, some sunshine and the odd shower. Temperatures roughly around 24’C. Though fairly low confidence.

Low confidence for Friday and into next weekend. The slightly more likely outcome sees low pressure fairly close to our north, with some showers at times and average temperatures. The slightly less likely outcome sees high pressure spread up from the south/south-west once more – with increased sunshine and temperatures. Close call at the moment, need to get through a few more days before it can be called.

I still think the more likely outcome for the latter part of August and beginning of September is changeable, though sunshine and very warm/quite hot weather somewhat more dominant than showery phases. And still chances of short hot/very hot spells.

Enjoy the sunshine if you can bear the heat, and good luck in the shower/downpour lottery next week.…

Monday 8th August 2022

Heatwave. But you know this already.

Thanks to Marina for the photograph.

Tonight sees mostly clear skies, down to around 14’C.

Tuesday sees high pressure in charge – stretching all the way from the Azores to Scandinavia – a remarkably similar set-up to August 1976. And very similar weather.

Long spells of sunshine for most of the day, a little bit of high cloud in the morning, and some fair-weather and high cloud later in the day. Hot, 29’C, maybe 30’C. A bit of an easterly breeze though. Clear skies overnight, down to around 15’C.

Wednesday sees glorious sunshine all day. Hot, 30’C, maybe 31’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 16’C.

Thursday sees glorious sunshine all day and those temperatures continue to tick up, 32’C seems feasible in an easterly breeze. Clear skies overnight and a fairly warm night, down to around 18’C.

Friday sees long spells of sunshine all day. A little bit of high cloud possible later in the day, but otherwise glorious – and a shade hotter, 33’C looks very achievable – despite the notable easterly breeze. Not often we get a hot easterly breeze. Clear skies overnight and a warm night, no lower than 19’C.

Saturday sees long spells of sunshine again. A little bit of cloud possible in the afternoon, likely very hot and probably still breezy, reaching around 34’C, maybe 35’C or so – though I wouldn’t be surprised with anything between 31’C and 36’C. A very, very small chance of a shower later in the day. A bit of cloud overnight and likely no lower than 19’C.

Sunday is more uncertain. It looks like low pressure is going to develop over France and head north.

What it means on the ground is uncertain – it will depend on the timing of any features that develop within the low pressure, and how it develops. Broadly speaking likely still hot, somewhere between 26’C and 36’C, with the latter half of that range more likely. Probably at least some sunshine – perhaps still sunny all day, though more likely at least somewhat hazy. And then add on an unknown chance of some thundery showers breaking out.

Next week likely starts hot, possibly humid, but also with some heavy showers or thunderstorms around.

By midweek it should be much fresher – possibly rather autumnal by the end of the week and into the weekend, with showers, rain and wind likely at times – with some sunny spells too. Not especially high confidence on that yet though.

Is that the end of summer? Probably not.

I think things more likely changeable for late August and into early September, but generally very warm or quite hot – short hot/very hot spells possible. But also some short cooler spells, with some showers should be mixed in.

Enjoy the glorious sunshine whilst you can…or be excited about the prospect of rain…whatever makes you happy. I intend on enjoying both!…