Saturday 30th July 2022

There’s actually a bit of rain in the forecast! Though generally it remains quite hot with some sunshine at times.

Thanks to Clare for the photograph.

This morning will be bright with spells of hazy sunshine. The afternoon generally cloudier, perhaps a light shower but most places remain dry – some hazy spells of sunshine still possible, especially towards the evening. Quite hot, 26’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, some occasional showery rain from late evening onwards. A warm and humid night, down to around 18’C.

Sunday morning looks mostly cloudy with some occasional showery rain. Some sunny spells in the afternoon, but a few scattered showers too, possibly on the heavy side. Very warm, 25’C, perhaps a tad more and feeling humid too. Fairly cloudy and fairly warm overnight, the odd shower still possible, around 17’C.

For Monday, the Azores High will try to ridge in once more to settle things down.

Quite a bit of cloud around at times, but also some sunny spells. Showers less likely, but one or two still possible. Quite hot, around 26’C, give or take. A cloudy, warm and humid night – probably no lower than around 19’C. Some occasional showery rain possible – though most of the rain should stay to our north.

Tuesday starts cloudy as the weather front slowly and erratically sinks south – bringing cloud but also some showery rain. It should break up to give some sunny spells at times in the afternoon (not certain), but also at the same time we should import some hotter air from France. On the hot side but temperatures will depend on afternoon sunshine amounts – somewhere between 27’C and 32’C, and feeling humid once more. Another warm and humid night, and probably rather cloudy, around 18’C.

Wednesday probably starts cloudy, and probably becomes sunny as the day goes on. The odd shower possible. Some uncertainty on temperatures, but likely on the hot side, say between 27’C and 30’C. Somewhat fresher air should arrive overnight…though maybe not until Thursday.

Thursday will be somewhat fresher, with high pressure close to our west and the yucky humidity pushed away…at least somewhat so.

Sunny spells, some fair weather cloud and a small chance of a shower. Very warm, perhaps quite hot, somewhere between 25’C and 27’C.

Friday will probably be similar, some sunny spells, some cloud, temperatures down a touch to around 24’C.

Next weekend is somewhat uncertain. High pressure should be close to the UK – but positioning is uncertain. One possibility is that it could be over the UK, which would mean good spells of sunshine, very warm/quite hot – but another possibility is that it could be further west/north-west, allowing a more north-easterly flow with some cloud and showers – and somewhat disappointing temperatures.

Drier then normal conditions are likely to dominate for much of August, probably a few more showers than July – and perhaps more likely something changeable towards the end of August, though very weak signals. Heatwave conditions will be possible through the middle third of August.

Appreciate that the forecasts have got a little out of kilter due to my recent busy life – I’m expecting a post-celebratory hangover on Monday from watching England beating Germany in the football, so maybe I’ll be on Tuesday/Friday schedule next week.

We’ll see. Enjoy the weekend and the bits of showery rain.…

Tuesday 26th July 2022

High pressure is trying to build from the west, but it isn’t completely plain-sailing – some cloud at times and even the odd shower.

Thanks to Jo for the marvellous photograph.

For those sending photographs via Facebook messages, it does seem to have fixed itself, so you can revert to using Facebook to send them – or you can e-mail them to – whichever suits you!

One or two evening showers dotted around but most places staying dry, clear spells overnight and down to around 14’C.

Wednesday sees high pressure loosely in control over the UK.

It isn’t the strongest build of high pressure ever, and there will be plenty of cloud, some sunny spells – a few scattered showers, say a 30% chance of catching one. Warm, 22’C. Fairly cloudy and fairly warm overnight, down to around 16’C.

Thursday looks rather cloudy, though the cloud thin enough most of the time to allow some hazy sunshine through. It should be dry – but I cannot rule out a shower. Very warm, 24’C. Still rather cloudy overnight though tending to break up towards dawn, 14’C.

Friday looks like seeing more in the way of sunshine, and temperatures getting into the hot category too. Some fair-weather cloud bubbling up, especially around lunchtime, but a much more summer-like day. Around 27’C. Some high cloud overnight keeping things on the warm side, down to around 17’C.

Saturday sees a weak weather front cross the country. A little uncertainty on timing – it will probably start sunny/hazy and quickly become very warm – the weather front more likely crossing during the middle or latter part of the day bringing mostly cloud but perhaps a little patchy rain. Some sunny spells again later, depending on how late the weather front arrived. The uncertain timing means maximum temperatures are uncertain – but somewhere between 23’C and 28’C.

Details sketchy for Sunday but something along the lines of variable cloud, some sunny spells and a few scattered showers is the more likely outcome. Arguably more cloud likely than sun overall. Temperatures somewhere between 24’C and 28’C…decent enough weather for football coming home?

Next week more likely sees high pressure weakly in control – likely quite hot, probably quite cloudy – at least some days, with the odd shower. An outside chance of it being briefly very hot in midweek.

The more likely outcome for next weekend, obviously 10+ days away so take with a huge pinch of salt, is for it to be sunnier but a little less hot, closer to warm/very warm. But as I said…10+ days away.

Potential for very hot conditions to return through the middle third of August, but this is a long way away. One to keep an eye on but only very tentative signals at this stage.

Next full forecast will be…erm…Saturday? Time to go watch the Lionesses.…

Monday 18th July 2022

Well we didn’t quite beat records today. It looks like the UK maximum was 38.1’C (subject to confirmation), and Reading University seems to have recorded a maximum of 35’C.

Tomorrow will be hotter.

Thanks to Chris for the photograph – didn’t expect to see a zebra grazing near Reading, but hey, times have changed.

This evening remains hot and sunny, otherwise mostly clear skies overnight – rural locations may get down to 20’C, urban locations closer to 23’C. The overnight UK record temperature will be broken, almost certainly.

Tuesday sees the low pressure approach that has caused the exceptional heat to be pumped this far.

Long spells of sunshine during the morning and most of the afternoon, and exceptionally hot – 37’C should be reached, perhaps 39’C…an outside chance of 40’C but I think we are too far west. By late afternoon, a band of cloud and the odd isolated shower will cross – an outside chance of a thundery downpour, but more likely just a few large spots of rain, or just cloud – this will begin the process of de-hotting, and the evening will be less hot than Monday’s was. Some clear spells overnight, some cloud, a small chance of a shower – down to around 18’C. Phew.

A bit of uncertainty for Wednesday as the low continues to push through and tries to clear the hot, dry air. Some sunny spells, but plenty of cloud and likely at least some scattered thundery showers developing – how widespread is uncertain, we may miss them all, but also there may be a few downpours. On the hot side still, and more humid, around 28’C but very give and take – will depend on how much sunshine there is. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, down to around 15’C.

For Thursday, the Azores High builds once more across the UK – so we’ll be back to sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud, potentially rather cloudy over the lunch period. Around 26’C, give or take. A lot of high/mid level cloud overnight – maybe a shower. Around 16’C.

Friday looks like seeing a small area of low pressure over France, which brings some uncertainty to our forecast – possible that there will be some heavy showers breaking out, but if and the extent is impossible to forecast right now. Otherwise, some sunny spells, variable cloud, around 24’C.

Saturday sees the shower risk reduced – likely more in the way of sunny spells though some cloud at times too. Temperatures back up – 27’C should be achieved, maybe more.

Sunday sees low pressure approach the UK from the west – some uncertainty but more likely it stays to our north-west, and causes hotter air to be pumped up. So more likely, long spells of sunshine with temperatures up to around 31’C. But the possibility of low pressure crossing the UK and bringing rain cannot yet be discounted – though with probabilities of 85% that it is hot and sunny.

A chance of showers to start next week – temperatures uncertain, anywhere from 24’C to 35’C.

Midweek onwards looks more likely to see the Azores High stretch across the UK once more, temperatures roughly in the range of 23’C to 28’C, with decent spells of sunshine. Far from guaranteed though, and maybe the shower risk is greater than it has been.

Right, that’ll do. I’m away for a very long weekend, so no full forecast until next week – probably on the Tuesday evening. Any tips for Copenhagen, feel free to comment!…

Friday 15th July 2022

Record-breaking heat is around the corner.

Firstly, I would like to take a moment to appreciate the technological progress which has led to this forecast – the models continually incrementally improve over time, as more data points are added and the models themselves are improved upon.

Two weeks ago, they first suggested 40’C for the UK – I was shocked. I nearly posted here but I try to avoid hype posts – especially considering models do suggest all kinds of crazy weather in the future as they try to work out the solutions.

Yet the model runs kept coming showing these crazy temperatures – I’d never in 15+ years of watching weather models every day, seen 40’C forecast – you could say that in every respect this is unprecedented. We don’t use that word enough nowadays. More runs, more different models – all kept showing this crazy scenario.

And here we are. It kind of reminds me of the Beast From The East, as that was similarly well signalled weeks in advance – in fact, in my summer forecast that I issued at the beginning of June, I mentioned the possibility of “unusually hot weather” for mid-July – and I only glean this from weather models and data.

It really is a “perfect” set-up for extreme heat, from the exceptionally hot air over north Africa, to the unusually warm sea surface temperatures of the Mediterranean, our own sea surface temperatures, low soil moisture levels over Spain/France – if you had to create a background set-up for record-breaking heat, you’d create the current background.

Thanks to Eve for the photograph.

Tonight sees mostly clear skies, temperatures down to around 13’C.

Saturday sees high pressure over the UK – and the low pressure to the west of Portugal/Spain acting as the heat pump, starting to send the heat our way.

Long spells of sunshine all day. A little high cloud but otherwise glorious. Fairly hot, reaching around 28’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 15’C.

Sunday sees long spells of sunshine. A little bit more high cloud but generally pretty glorious. Hot, 30’C, maybe a tad more. A warm night, no lower than 18’C.

Monday sees the exceptionally hot air in place and with long spells of sunshine all day, temperatures easily reaching 35’C – though anything up to 40’C is possible, with 38’C being my current more likely estimate. Scorchio. There is a high chance that the UK temperature record will go – somewhere between Cambridge and South Yorkshire, stretching east into East Anglia is the more likely area.

Overnight looks exceptionally warm – and likely record-breaking for the highest minimum temperature ever – I think the record is 23.1’C – London may well not dip below 26’C, Reading probably having a minimum around 23’C, though perhaps those figures might be higher.

Tuesday is more uncertain as the low from the west of Portugal/Spain will be approaching – and it’s arrival will feature a notable…de-hotting. Yeah not a word, but I cannot use cooling.

Before it arrives, temperatures will shoot up – peaking somewhere between 35’C and 40’C before lowering as the day goes on – depending on the timing of the low pressure system. By evening, it should be notably less hot, still hot – just normal. And there will be some cloud around, perhaps a little rain, perhaps a thundery downpour. Down to around 17’C overnight, the odd shower possible.

Details a little sketchy for Wednesday, but broadly some cloud and a chance of showers in the morning, probably sunnier for the afternoon. Around 25’C, give or take. A delightful 13’C overnight.

By Thursday, we most likely see the Azores High building once more – our summer friend.

Sunny spells, some cloud around, temperatures around 25’C or so.

Friday will be similar, sunny spells, some cloud at times, and roughly around 26’C – give or take a couple. It does look like low pressure will be developing over France and this may be close enough to trigger a shower – though chances still small at this stage.

The more likely outcome for next weekend keeps the weather similar, sunny spells, some cloud, a small chance of a shower and quite hot, say 26’C or so.

I wouldn’t totally rule out something more showery, or something hotter – or indeed less warm.

And that should be the general trend for the rest of July – very warm/quite hot, sunny spells though suggestions that shower chances should increase towards the end of July and to start August. Anything very hot is unlikely, though cannot be ruled out.

I had been expecting a rather mixed August, though with low confidence, and also with high pressure around slightly more often then not.

Now things are trending to drier, hotter and probably sunnier than normal, with high pressure likely to dominate for quite a chunk of the month. Positioning will be key, as always, to sunshine amounts and temperatures – a reload of exceptional heat will be possible with the background set-up that Europe has.

Well, I wish you a good weekend – apologies if you saw my Dall-E Mini reaction of Boris Johnson eating traffic cones earlier on Facebook, it seems it is much easier to post on this page by mistake since Facebook’s “upgrade”, instead of my personal profile. Expect more mistakes at some point.

Next forecast should be Monday evening, assuming I’ve coped ok with the heat!

Good luck.…

Extreme Heat Is Coming

I’m sure you’ve seen from other sources, and I’ve long been suggesting this is possible, but it looks pretty certain now that extreme heat will arrive for Monday, temperatures widely around 36’C to 39’C – the UK maximum recorded temperature should be broken somewhere, and many places, even up north, will see their own city-records broken.

Likewise, we should also record the UK’s highest even overnight minimum temperature somewhere.

Tuesday should be as hot, perhaps hotter. 40’C could be recorded somewhere in the UK.

It is now more likely that we break the record temperature than not, and I’d argue that 40’C is about as likely to happen as not – a 50/50 chance, though probably not widespread.

There remains a lower chance of something less hot, say peaking around 36’C.

The breakdown most likely arrives Tuesday night or early Wednesday, though there is a chance that it could arrive during the day on Tuesday and temperatures reduce somewhat during the afternoon.

Don’t expect too much rain, if any, from the breakdown. A small chance of thunderstorms, but most likely we just go back to normal levels of hot sunshine, like today.

Full update tomorrow…must dash…work to do. My previous forecast from Monday still stands otherwise.…

Monday 11th July 2022

Extreme, record-breaking heat is increasingly possible for Sunday and early next week. Until then, hot and often sunny – though some cloud, and temperatures drop a little before the weekend.

Thanks to Chris for the photograph.

The Met Office does have an amber warning out for heat – I know the temptation may be to downplay it “hot weather in summer, shock horror”, but heat is dangerous for some people. The one saving grace for this heatwave is that humidity should be relatively low.

This evening and overnight sees lots of high cloud, which will keep the warmth in – down to around 18’C so a rather warm night.

Tuesday sees high pressure in control and the heat remains – though a weak cold front will be slowly edging down from the north-west.

The sun will be much hazier than the last few days, with lots of high/mid level cloud – some sunny breaks, but generally hazy sunshine, and cloud tending to thicken somewhat later in the day. Hot, around 31’C. Fairly cloudy overnight as the weather front continues its slow progress south/south-east – you might even scrape a shower out of it, though most places dry. A really warm night – possibly no lower than 20’C.

Wednesday starts fairly cloudy, you might even get a little showery rain out of it – but also some hazy sunshine. More sunshine from lunchtime onwards, give or take, but often hazy. Less hot, 27’C, maybe a little more. Still quite a bit of high cloud overnight, though a somewhat fresher night, down to around 16’C.

Thursday sees good spells of sunshine. Some high cloud at times, some fair weather cloud bubbling up – more so in the afternoon, but sunshine is the game. The northerly breeze taking the edge off, but still getting to 26’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight and a much fresher feel – down to around 12’C.

Friday again sees good spells of sunshine. Some cloud around – some high cloud at times, and some fair weather cloud, but temperatures also on the up, reaching around 28’C, give or take. Clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

So you may remember that I said if low pressure developed to the west of Spain/Portugal, it could lead to unusually hot air heading our way. Well, low pressure will be developing to the west of Spain/Portugal in the latter part of the week and will be advecting much hotter air north.

Saturday looks like seeing low spells of sunshine, though hazy at times. Hot, somewhere between 28’C and 30’C most likely. The warmer nights will be back too, getting down to around 17’C.

Sunday has more of a southerly flow so will be hotter. Long spells of sunshine, a bit of cloud but generally just hot and sunny, perhaps very hot. A little uncertainty on maximum temperatures but most likely in the range of 32’C to 34’C – but I wouldn’t rule out anything in the range of 28’C to 36’C. A warm night for sure.

The more likely outcome for Monday is that it is very, or extremely hot. And sunny. Temperatures somewhere in the range of 33’C to 38’C, with a small chance of 40’C. Aha.

It isn’t certain, these kind of plumes are tricky to get exactly right a week in advance – the extremely hot air may not reach these shores, maybe it drifts further east of us – so it is still very possible that we just end up with ordinary hot weather. Likewise, the low pressure system from Spain/Portugal may well track our way and destabilise conditions, ie thundery showers, before the real heat gets here.

So there is some uncertainty – as there normally is a week away. But the more likely outcome is that Monday is very hot, with a small-moderate chance of record-breaking heat.

Following this is uncertain – the very hot conditions may last another day or two, or Monday may be the last day. Some form of breakdown with some thundery showers seems fairly likely early/mid week.

The more likely outcome for late next week and into next weekend sees more hot sunshine.

Next full forecast will be on Friday due to work social on Thursday evening.…

Friday 8th July 2022

Hot, dry and mostly sunny.

This should be a pretty easy forecast which is useful as I have a bit of a hangover.

Thanks to Chris for the photograph, and everyone else who has taken the extra effort to e-mail them. Could there be a more perfect location for a photograph for this blog?

This evening and tonight sees a bit of high cloud at times, down to around 15’C so a fairly warmish night.

For Saturday, the area of high pressure that has been fairly close to our west starts to move over the UK.

Some cloud around in the morning though with plenty of sunny spells, long spells of sunshine in the afternoon. A northerly breeze means temperatures down a notch from today but still quite hot, 26’C, maybe 27’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

Sunday sees long spells of sunshine, with a little bit of fair weather cloud in the afternoon. Hot, 28’C, maybe 29’C. Fairly warm overnight, down to around 15’C.

Monday will be hot and mostly sunny. There will be some bits of cloud at times, mostly in the afternoon and probably making the sun rather hazy by the end of the day. Temperatures reaching somewhere between 30’C and 32’C – though the latter more likely. Quite a bit of high cloud overnight which will help keep it on the warm side, down to around 17’C – though perhaps a bit warmer than that.

Tuesday will see a bit more in the way of high/mid level cloud, making it hazy, but it broadly remains sunny (hazy) and hot, perhaps we could class it as very hot. A bit of uncertainty on temperatures, peaking somewhere between 30’C and 35’C. A fairly warm night, down to around 18’C.

Wednesday is a bit uncertain. A very weak weather front will spread south either during the day on Wednesday or overnight. More likely is during the day – it will only bring some cloud and there will be sunny spells at times too – and still hot, this scenario easily gets us to 30’C, maybe 32’C – and a fresher feel overnight. If the weather front arrives during the night instead (less likely) then we should get to 35’C during the day with a notably uncomfortably warm night.

By Thursday, high pressure will still be over the UK, but the very weak weather front will have introduced slightly fresher air. Slightly.

It will be mostly sunny, a bit of cloud, probably some high cloud making things generally hazy and only quite hot, say 26’C to 28’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

Friday remains hot and sunny. Some high cloud possible so it could be hazy sunshine rather than outright sunshine – it’s too far away to be sure. Most likely somewhere in the range of 26’C to 29’C – but perhaps lower…or higher.

By Saturday, uncertainty is increasing a bit, but by some way the most likely outcome is that we stay hot and mostly sunny, with temperatures somewhere between 27’C and 32’C.

There is a fair chance of low pressure to the west of Spain/Portugal creating a plume of much hotter air, that by Saturday may reach the UK – so a small chance instead of temperatures around 35’C, or so. There is, instead, a very small chance of some showery rain, but no higher than a 5% chance.

Sunday very likely remains hot and mostly sunny. There is a very small chance of some showers, say 10% chance at most, but by far the more likely outcome is hot and sunny. How hot? Well, the chances of tapping into this much hotter air increase by Sunday, though still not the more likely outcome – say a 25% chance of temperatures between 33’C and 37’C. More likely we’ll be in the range of 28’C to 32’C.

The more likely outcome for the week after sees something a bit more changeable, some cloud, some sun, temperatures closer to normal (so very warm/quite hot), perhaps even a little bit of showery rain – suggestions are that the jet stream fires up a bit – though stays to our north.

There is, however, a very small chance that we stay very hot, at least for the beginning of the week, though only if we reached the less likely very hot outcome during the weekend. If so, then the UK temperature record would have a small chance of being broken. 40’C is not out of the question if everything aligned – though I stress is a very, very small chance.

Almost everything is perfectly aligned, from sea surface temperatures here and the Mediterranean, to ground temperatures here, France and Spain, to soil dryness – there hasn’t been a better background for the possibility of record temperatures here since 2003, in my opinion. Will the actual weather patterns provide? Who knows. There is a chance though.

The more likely outcome for the end of July is for more hot and sunny weather, and the beginning of August too.

Only weak signals for August otherwise – something mixed is more likely at this stage, but with very low confidence.

Right, time to go enjoy my monkfish curry from Clay’s. Gosh their food is good.…

Monday 4th July 2022

The Azores High takes control. Summer…but with some cloud at first.

Any images sent to me as Facebook messages are coming through with such low resolution (ie image quality) that they are unusable. So if you want to send me a photograph to use, until Facebook fixes their “upgrade” then you can e-mail them to – or maybe try attaching them to the Facebook posts as a comment?

Thanks to Lorraine, who did the latter a week or so ago.

Sunny spells this evening with reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Tuesday sees the Azores High, to our west, and slowly nudging eastwards.

Whilst it is situated to our west, there is always a risk of importing/developing a significant amount of cloud, and this will be the case on Tuesday. After a sunny start, it will quickly become cloudy, probably rather overcast. As the afternoon goes on, it will thin and break to an extent to give some sunny spells – and more so by the evening. Around 20’C. Clear skies for a time overnight, though some more cloud later – down to around 12’C.

Wednesday starts bright with a mixture of cloud and hazy sunny spells. A lot of cloud follows, but a bit thinner than Tuesday so allowing more in the way of brightness, and then some sunny spells later in the afternoon. Very warm, despite the cloud, 25’C should be reached, maybe a tad more. Fairly cloudy overnight, and on the warm side – down to around 15’C.

Thursday morning looks mostly cloudy, but the cloud should start to break up a bit earlier, say around lunchtime, and during the afternoon there will be pretty good spells of sunshine – not quite glorious, but we are getting there. Very warm again, though with a more northerly direction to the breeze, so reaching around 25’C. Fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

Friday sees our friend, the Azores High, stretching all the way from the Azores, across the UK – though still centred to our west.

A bit of uncertain on cloud amounts, but broadly some sunny spells, some cloud – though whether there is more cloud than sun overall is uncertain. Likely on the hot side, between 26’C and 28’C, depending on cloud amounts. Reasonably clear skies overnight and fairly warm, down to around 15’C.

Saturday will be very similar. Some cloud again, particularly around the lunchtime period, but decent sunny spells at times, particularly in the first part of the morning and from mid-afternoon onwards. It should be hot, somewhere between 26’C and 29’C most likely. Clear spells overnight, down to around 15’C.

Sunday continues on the same theme, though probably a bit more sunshine and a bit less cloud. Still on the hot side, somewhere between 26’C and 29’C most likely.

Almost certainly next week remains dry all week, almost certainly it remains hot. Still some uncertainty over exactly where the high pressure system will be – will it stay to our west, or maybe drift over us? As such, that means there is some uncertainty on cloud amounts – though sunshine totals should be higher than cloud amounts.

Also uncertainty as to how hot it will go, though somewhere in the range of 26’C to 32’C, with some variability, is more likely.

A small chance of it becoming very hot around the weekend after, though more likely it stays within the more normal levels of hot, between 26’C and 32’C.

Suggestions that after mid-month, very roughly somewhere between 18th to 24th, there is a chance of some showers, though high pressure is likely to take back control for the end of July, with further hot weather likely.

One final thought, it wouldn’t surprise me if we broke the UK temperature record this month. It would need several factors to come together, so it is only a VERY SMALL chance – but with unusual heat anomalies in the Mediterranean Sea, warmer sea surface temperatures near the UK, drier than normal conditions in both Spain and the UK on the ground (I think France too but they have had more rain recently) – the ingredients are there so if the right weather pattern sets up, then it could happen.

It does need a few things to happen though, particularly for our Azores High to move to our east, along with low pressure to develop west of Spain/Portugal – neither of which currently look likely.

One to watch – it is possible but only a very small chance of happening. For now, enjoy the slightly imperfect summer week or two…or maybe three…or four.…