Thursday 30th June 2022

Well I hope you enjoyed the showers – as there is a lot of dry weather to come in the coming weeks. You could call it summer. We might even call it the most summery July since 2013.

Trying not to get too ahead of myself, but it looks promising – even more promising than my summer forecast. And nothing too hot…yet. And still a few scattered showers over the next few days.

No photograph this week as Facebook has decided to make it impossible to retrieve and use the photographs you send me, as part of their “upgrade”. Hopefully a temporary aberration. Oh and I have no wi-fi either. The joys of Virgin Media.

Heavy showers will fade this evening, though a stray shower will remain possible overnight. Down to around 12’C.

Friday morning starts with sunny spells and a few scattered heavy showers – though fairly hit and miss. Showers unlikely in the afternoon – if you do catch a stray shower it shouldn’t be heavy, and sunshine amounts increase somewhat. Reaching around 22’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight though some cloud by dawn, down to around 11’C.

Saturday starts bright with some sunny spells – though some cloud too. It will become mostly cloudy as a weak weather front crosses, bringing a bit of rain around lunchtime/early afternoon (timing a little uncertain), followed by sunny spells and one or two scattered heavy showers. Reaching around 20’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Sunday looks a kind of early July mish-mash, some sunny spells but quite a lot of fair weather cloud and a few scattered showers, possibly heavy – around a 50% chance of catching one or two. Around 21’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

By Monday the Azores High will be edging closer. Some sunny spells, quite a lot of fair-weather cloud – likely more cloud than sun overall, especially around the lunchtime hours – a small chance of a lightish shower. Around 22’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Tuesday likely starts and ends sunny, but in between quite a lot of cloud – a fairly normal scene when the Azores High is pushing in but bringing a lot of cloud on a north-westerly. Somewhere between 21’C and 24’C, depending on sunshine amounts.

Wednesday is uncertain on cloud amounts, but more likely is a fairly cloudy day – similar to Tuesday.

By Thursday, cloud amounts remain uncertain and a fairly cloudy day is very possible – as is a fairly sunny day.

But by Friday and into next weekend, that high pressure keeps edging a tiny bit closer, and by this point most likely we are in sunshine territory. No promise this far out, but substantially more likely. Temperatures between 24’C and 28’C by this point.

For the week after I have unusually high confidence, though no certainty, of mostly dry weather, temperatures likely quite hot to hot – though perhaps “only” very warm, generally good amounts of sunshine.

Heatwave conditions possible by mid-July, but it will depend on high pressure orientation – and should it happen, there will be a chance of thundery breakdowns.

And more likely than not, the dry summery weather continues through the rest of July, particularly likely later in July – a moderate chance of something a bit more changeable after mid-month for a short spell.

Well, it was a pain in the backside to write this forecast but hopefully it is a joy to read. Unless you want rain.…

Monday 27th June 2022

A changeable week ahead – some sunshine, some showers, and temperatures around normal.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

Tonight sees reasonably clear skies with temperatures down to around 10’C.

Tuesday continues the same kind of pattern of recent days – low pressure to our west trying to push in, but high pressure to the east blocking it, and reducing its potential impact.

It will start reasonably sunny, but quite a lot of fair weather cloud will bubble up during the morning, some sunny breaks but overall likely more cloud than sunshine. More in the way of sunny spells in the afternoon, but still plenty of fair weather cloud and some high cloud making the sunshine hazy too. A small chance of a shower, more likely in the morning/early afternoon. Around 21’C and still rather windy at times. Cloud continuing to thicken overnight with some rain before dawn, as a weakening weather front pushes across. Around 15’C.

Wednesday starts cloudy with some showery rain – this clears to sunny spells and scattered showers, possibly heavy, for a little while. But from around early afternoon, high cloud will move up from the south – making the sunshine hazy, but stopping the showers. A warmer feel, around 23’C. Areas of heavy rain moving up from the south overnight – the track is uncertain at this stage and certainly feasible we could stay dry. An small chance of some lightning. Around 13’C.

Thursday looks more unsettled, with a slack area of low pressure overhead. Some sunny spells, but also some heavy/very heavy showers developing. The distribution of showers still to be determined, some places may miss out and stay dry, but more likely you will have several heavy/very heavy showers during the course of the day, torrential downpours possible, as is hail/thunder/lightning. Around 20’C. Showers fading overnight, down to around 11’C.

Friday looks like a bit of an improvement. Less showers, though still some heavy/very heavy showers scattered around. Some sunny spells, though I’m not expecting anything too nice. Around 21’C.

Saturday looks like high pressure will be starting to build over the southern half of the UK, but with an added annoyance of a weak weather front which will give some cloud, possibly some showers – though it will depend on the progress of the weather front as only a fairly small band. Otherwise, sunny spells, and temperatures on the up, say 22’C, perhaps more.

Sunday still has a small chance of a shower, but broadly should be set fair – some sunny spells, some cloud. Temperatures somewhere between 21’C and 25’C depending on exact positioning of high pressure to our west.

Next week should see the Azores High start to push in from the west – a pattern that summer lovers should rejoice at as it can give fairly long spells of settled weather – very warm or quite hot but nothing unusual for early July.

Cloud amounts are uncertain at this stage, certainly possible under this kind of set-up that we get more cloud than sun, at least to begin with, but far too early to judge as it will depend on the exact positioning of the high pressure close to our west. Most likely dry but the odd shower possible.

Temperatures most likely in the very warm to quite hot category, say between 22’C and 28’C – though some variation probable depending on cloud amounts and high pressure positioning.

It could be a rather pleasant spell of settled, summer weather. Though with increased chance of it becoming notably hot towards mid-July – and also increased chances of thundery showers. A long way away though.

Even August tentatively looks like it could be hotter, drier and sunnier than normal – though with some variations at times.…

Thursday 23rd June 2022

Not as warm as it has been, but not actually too bad this weekend – a few showers around, but it looks like we are getting lucky again.

The possible heavy rain for Saturday (previously the slightly more likely outcome) will be to the east of the UK – and the showers focused further west. Low pressure will be in charge, but it will actually be reasonable.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

This evening sees one or two isolated showers, possibly very heavy, but these will fade and move north swiftly. Otherwise a fair amount of cloud, though some clear spells. A warmish night, no lower than 15’C.

Friday sees low pressure sat over Ireland, though a strong block of high pressure to our east helping keep thing reasonable.

Fairly cloudy in the morning – some brightness, some sunny spells. Increasing amounts of sunshine during the afternoon, though always some cloud. A few isolated showers – most places staying dry, but you could catch a heavy shower. Warm, 22’C but breezy too. A band of cloud and some patchy rain crossing during the evening, clear spells follow with temperatures down to around 12’C.

Saturday sees sunny spells and fair weather cloud, with a scattering of showers. Around a 50% chance of catching one or two, not likely to be too heavy if you do catch one, and should be fairly brief. Around 20’C and windy. One or two scattered heavy showers in the evening, perhaps with thunder – associated with the rain to the east of the UK. Clear skies follow with temperatures down to around 11’C.

Sunday is similar, sunny spells and fair weather cloud with a scattering of showers. Around a 50% chance of catching one or two, not likely to be that heavy, and more likely in the morning. 21’C and still quite windy. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Monday stays on the same theme – some sunny spells, plenty of fair weather cloud, some showers. Around 20’C and breezy. Cloud thickening from the west overnight, though clear spells at first. Down to around 12’C.

Tuesday is more uncertain – low pressure to our west will be trying to push east, but at the same time, high pressure looks like it will strengthen just to our east.

The more likely outcome sees a weather front stay to our west – and we stay dry with some hazy sunshine and feeling warm, possibly warmer than it has been. Not especially high confidence though.

If that was the outcome for Tuesday, then Wednesday would be more likely to stay dry, and temperatures more likely into the very warm or quite hot category.

The slightly more likely outcome for Thursday/Friday sees the chance of heat and humidity increase, but also with increased chances of thundery downpours. Fairly low confidence though so don’t get too hung up on it happening yet. It could easily end up cool and wet/very wet…or just fine and warm. Maybe just ignore this. And don’t ask me about next weekend yet.

I’m still fairly optimistic for good chunks of summer, I still think mid-July has the greater potential for heatwave conditions. I don’t expect a classic summer, but neither do I expect a wash-out. There should be enough warm sunshine, occasional hot spells, and enough heavy showers to keep all camps roughly content – metaphorical camps that is.

See ya.…

Monday 20th June 2022

A few proper summer days this week – but low pressure approaches by the end of the week.

Thanks to Becky for the photograph.

Tonight sees mostly clear skies, a bit of high cloud around, down to around 10’C.

We are in kind of weather no man’s land this week – low pressure to our north, high pressure to our west – and that is just nudging in enough to give some very pleasant sunshine. For a few days.

Tuesday therefore sees long spells of sunshine. Some high cloud around, a little fair weather cloud but generally glorious. 24’C, maybe 25’C. Clear skies overnight and down to around 11’C.

By Wednesday we tap into some of the warmer upper air over France, in a minor way, but enough to increase temperatures to around 26’C, maybe 27’C. Long spells of sunshine and very little cloud all day. A warmer feel overnight, down to around 14’C.

Thursday is one of those trickier days. Sunny to start, but an area of high/mid-level cloud spreading up from France during the day, which will give a chance of some scattered heavy, possibly thundery showers in the afternoon/evening. It will be on the hot side, but how much so will depend on the timing of the area of cloud from France, say roughly between 26’C and 29’C – unless it arrives in the morning. A fairly warm night likely, down to around 16’C, with some cloud – the shower chance remaining.

By Friday we see low pressure in charge over Ireland.

Quite a lot of cloud around, but some sunny spells. Some showers likely to break out – I’m not currently expecting anything too frequent or heavy, but that isn’t certain. The warm air still just about in place, so temperatures somewhere between 22’C and 24’C most likely. The more likely outcome for overnight sees a band of showery rain cross at some point – again not expecting too much in the way of rain.

Saturday is uncertain – yes I do get bored of using that word. The slightly more likely outcome sees a spell of heavy/very heavy rain spreading up from the south – a fair soaking. This may instead be further east, in which case sunshine and heavy showers. Only a small chance of a fair day. Temperatures somewhere between 14’C and 19’C.

The more likely outcome for Sunday is sunshine and showers, temperatures roughly around 18’C to 20’C.

Next week looks like the hot weather from Europe may well try to push back north/west – though low pressure is going to be close by to our west too…it could easily be a hot week (or becoming so)…it could easily be a wash-out.

More likely I’d suggest a mixture, showers more likely at first, warmth/heat and drier conditions more likely later. But take it as a vague guide for now.…

Saturday 18th June 2022 – Weekend Update

So it remains a really tricky forecast for today – the weather model that I most rely on says that it we should have thundery rain right now. Hmmm. Clearly we don’t.

You can see the cold front to our north on the rain radar – currently around South Wales, Birmingham and up to The Wash. It shouldn’t shift a lot during the day today, though will pivot a bit to be somewhat more in a north-easterly diagonal across the country.

To the south, ie us, we’ll see spells of hazy sunshine, particularly this morning. It will be very warm, possibly quite hot though quite how high temperatures will go remains uncertain, somewhere in the range of 24’C to 27’C is more likely – but I wouldn’t rule out a bit higher.

So the rest of the uncertainty comes from any showers that develop from around midday into early afternoon – and how close that weather front gets. There will likely be some showers developing over the south-east of England, perhaps even general showery rain for a couple of hours – but where is uncertain – you could as easily stay dry as get some showers/showery rain.

Also of note, temperatures probably peaking around lunchtime or early afternoon – it should be notably more fresher, but still warm, by late afternoon.

More uncertainty this evening – a very small chance of a thunderstorm imported from France – though if they occur they will probably be closer to Kent/Sussex…perhaps London. But still an outside chance they are this far west.

The cold front will arrive this evening – and brings pulses of rain, likely some heavy, perhaps with a rumble of thunder – but it will be moving through erratically so giving any timing on when it will rain will be impossible until nearer the time – but at some points from roughly 7pm onwards – I stress the showery nature.

Tomorrow is again tricky on details, though broadly a mixture of sunny spells (often hazy) and some spells of cloud. Some showers possible – particularly by late afternoon and into the evening as the weather front pushes back north. Much fresher – around 20’C.

Oh for an easy forecast!…

Thursday 16th June 2022

Very hot then very uncertain. Fresher air is on the way, but it is going to struggle to properly establish itself.

Thanks to Dawn for the photograph.

An outside chance of a light shower this evening, but otherwise this evening and overnight will see lots of high-level cloud – keeping the warmth in, and temperatures no lower than 17’C for most, though a little lower in rural spots. Feeling on the muggy side.

Friday starts with this unusually hot air that has been dragged up from Africa, thanks to a little low pressure system to the west of Spain – though with another low pressure system to our north trying to push down a cold front.

It will start with some high cloud, potentially making the sunshine rather hazy at times in the morning, but this increasingly breaks up into glorious sunshine. Hot…maybe you’d call it very hot, we should reach 32’C – perhaps 34’C. Mostly clear skies overnight though some cloud by dawn. Another warm and humid night, likely no lower than 18’C.

And that’s the easy part of the forecast done already. Sigh.

The difficulty is that the cold front will be trying to push south, but also there is a bit of momentum from a low pressure system developing to the west of France, that will try to push the heat back north.

It’s still a close call, but the slightly more likely outcome for Saturday is that the cold front will be to our north, say Birmingham ish, and may actually push back a bit further north. This means that it will remain very warm, possibly hot, with at least some sunny spells, albeit probably hazy – with smallish chances of a shower. Assuming so, then somewhere between 24’C and 30’C depending on sunshine amounts.

If this slightly more likely outcome occurs, then during the evening, some very heavy rain, possibly thundery, will be more likely, as the cold front bumps into the daytime energy from the heat.

However, the slightly less likely outcome is very different and sees the weather front over us, or close to, bringing more cloud and some showery rain at times – temperatures in the range of 15’C to 20’C if so.

In either outcome, overnight will see some cloud, some occasional showery rain possible, and temperatures down to around 12’C – much fresher.

Details again uncertain for Sunday. It will be fresher, there will be cloud, there could be sunshine, and probably there will at least be some showers – depending on how close the earlier weather front is to our south – which is probably going to try to move back north. A small chance of general rain instead of showers. Somewhere between 18’C and 20’C.

Things settle down on Monday, both in terms of the weather and also my ability to do a forecast.

Sunny spells, some cloud at times – likely more sunshine in the afternoon than morning. Warm, 22’C – maybe a little more. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

For Tuesday it looks like we’ll tap into the heat over France once more, not hugely but enough to increase temperatures and humidity. We should be looking at sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud – maximum temperatures probably somewhere between 24’C and 28’C depending on exact wind direction. A small chance of a heavy, thundery shower drifting up from France – but unlikely. Probably clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

By Wednesday we see more of a north-westerly – normally a cooler direction but actually there is some unusually warm upper air to our north-west, which should keep Wednesday warm or very warm. Some cloud at times, but also some sunny spells and a small chance of a light shower. Breezy too. Temperature somewhere between 21’C and 27’C. I know, still lots of uncertainty on details.

More likely for Thursday we’ll see something similar to Wednesday, some cloud at times, particularly around lunchtime – potentially quite overcast for a time, but sunny either side. Probably still warm or very warm, though some uncertainty, so more likely somewhere between 22’C and 27’C – but don’t be surprised if cooler air has pushed down from the north/north-west and it is closer to 18’C.

For Friday and into next weekend, it is roughly 50/50 as to whether the warm/very warm air can hang on, with pleasant sunshine and some cloud – or we have something cooler and somewhat showery, spreading down from the north/north-west. Maybe marginally more likely is the warm/very warm and dry/sunny weather. Close call though.

The more likely outcome to end the month and begin July, is to see more very pleasant, settled weather – with decent spells of sunshine, temperatures very warm/quite hot – with moderate chances of briefly importing heat and/or thunderstorms from France.

Not bad, huh? Well, unless you don’t like summer.

Apologies for the uncertainty, especially close range for the weekend. I’ll try to find time to update either Friday evening or Saturday morning, for the weekend rain potential.…

Wednesday 15th June 2022

I thought it worth a quick update as the models are trending towards slightly more extreme solutions, though uncertainty remains over exactly how hot it will get and how the weekend breakdown progresses.

Consider this an addendum to my previous forecast – so everything I said on Monday stands except what I update here.

I’ll now be surprised if the temperature on Friday doesn’t reach 31’C, probably 32’C, but it could be even higher – 35’C wouldn’t be out of the question. There must be an outside chance of the record June temperature, set in 1976, being broken somewhere in England – which was 35.6’C. A warm night is likely too, minimum temperatures between 18’C and 22’C.

Saturday remains highly uncertain, but more likely we keep the heat to an extent, temperatures somewhere between 26’C and 32’C depending on sunshine amounts – there will be cloud around, there may be some showers or even thundery downpours – the breakdown details are very sketchy at the moment. Not impossible that it could rain all day and be 16’C – but the general rain is more likely to be further north.

The chance of some very heavy or torrential rain, possibly thundery, either Saturday night and/or at some point(s?) on Sunday has increased since my last forecast – though remains uncertain. Temperatures more likely to be around 20’C, but anything from 12’C to 26’C is feasible.

The broad picture is there but getting the details right is going to be tricky, as they always are when these plume-like situations degrade.…

Monday 13th June 2022

Becoming hot. But not for too long.

Thanks to Paul for the photograph.

Tonight sees mostly clear skies, temperatures down to around 10’C.

Tuesday sees high pressure building from the south, where there is some real heat – you may well have seen that temperatures in Spain are currently 40’C or more in many places.

It will start sunny – some fair weather cloud will bubble up, especially for the lunch time period, but good spells of sunshine will prevail for the rest of the day. Very warm, 23’C, maybe 24’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Wednesday will see good spells of sunshine. Some high cloud at times, a bit of fair weather cloud too, but otherwise sunny. Quite hot, 26’C is feasible, give or take. Mostly clear skies overnight though some high cloud by dawn, down to around 13’C.

By Thursday the position of the high pressure adjusts enough to allow some of the heat to our south to start to drift north – but also there will be a lot of high cloud, so we’ll be looking at hazy sunshine all day. On the hot side, though exactly how hot will depend on how hazy the sunshine is – somewhere between 26’C and 28’C. A fairly warm night, down to around 15’C.

Friday will probably be the hottest day of this spell. The high cloud shifts north to leave long spells of sunshine and it will reach 30’C, perhaps a little more. A warm night, some cloud developing and a chance of a shower (this is where things become uncertain) – eventually dropping to around 18’C.

Saturday sees fresher air spread down from the north at some point, bringing cloud and at least some heavy, showery rain, possibly thundery – but timing is uncertain. The slightly more likely outcome is that this band of cloud and some showery rain crosses either late morning or during the afternoon – very warm/quite hot and humid with hazy sunshine beforehand, say somewhere between 24’C and 28’C.

It could arrive early morning instead, which would keep temperatures around 22’C – with the warmest weather later in the day once the weather front clears.

There is still a small chance the heat hangs on until the evening, or even overnight – in which case 32’C or more could be reached.

I currently don’t expect anything too notable in terms of downpours – just some showery rain, probably some heavy – and only a small chance of thunder. But the whole set-up is still uncertain, so there could be upgrades for heat, rain and/or thunder as we approach.

Sunday is also uncertain. The slightly more likely outcome would see variable cloud, some sunny spells and remaining on the warm side, say 22’C. The slightly less likely outcome sees something cloudier and cooler, with some patchy rain.

There is an outside chance that we hang onto the heat, and likewise an outside chance of some downpours.

Next week looks like seeing high pressure to our west with a north-westerly – a summer La Niña set-up if ever I saw one. However there is actually likely to be some unusually warm air going over the top of the high pressure so the week should start warm or very warm – potentially even quite hot, especially Tuesday/Wednesday – with plenty of sunshine, and some cloud. This isn’t certain but is by some way the more likely outcome for next week.

Towards the end of next week and into next weekend (I know there are a few Glastonbury peeps reading) the slightly more likely outcome is that it becomes cooler, cloudier with an increased chance of showers. Low confidence at this stage, as you’d expect 10 days away.…

Thursday 9th June 2022

High pressure in charge over the southern half of the UK, which means it will be dry, warm with some sunny spells. Not quite glorious, but some pleasant weather ahead. And our first opportunity of some proper heat by the end of next week – opportunity – not certainty.

Thanks to Becky for the photograph.

This evening and tonight remains cloudy, the odd splash of rain at times though dry for most of the time. Mild, 15’C – cloud tending to clear around dawn.

Friday sees high pressure over the south of England – quite a deep area of low pressure to the west of Scotland which includes remnants of the first Atlantic tropical storm of the year, and has arguably given the low pressure enough oomph to send it further north.

Quite a lot of fair-weather cloud around, likely more cloud than sun for much of the day, though sunshine amounts will tend to increase as the afternoon goes on. Warm, though breezy, around 22’C, maybe 23’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Saturday starts sunny. Quite a lot of fair-weather cloud again bubbling up, particularly around the lunchtime hours, but remaining bright with some sunny spells – and more in the way of sunshine as the afternoon goes on. A small chance of a shower – it shouldn’t be anything of note. Warm but breezy once more, 22’C, maybe 23’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Sunday starts sunny but again plenty of fair-weather cloud will bubble up to leave more cloud than sunshine, but still some sunny spells – especially later in the day. The breeze more north-westerly so temperatures a shade lower at 21’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Monday again starts sunny, and again quite a lot of cloud bubbles up – potentially fairly overcast for a while late morning into the lunchtime period. Sunnier later once more. Temperatures between 21’C and 24’C, depending on cloud amounts. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 9’C.

Tuesday should see less cloud developing, though likely a fair amount of high cloud at times to make the sunshine hazy. Warm or very warm, somewhere between 22’C and 25’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Wednesday likely sees good sunny spells, with some fair weather cloud. Temperatures should be on the very warm side, somewhere between 23’C and 26’C.

Uncertainty increases by time we get to Thursday/Friday but most likely we’ll remain dry with at least some sunny spells. Temperatures may remain in the warm/very warm category – but slightly more likely we end up tapping into some of the heat over France (some model runs get close to 40’C for France next week) – if we do then somewhere between 25’C and 28’C would be easily feasible – with an outside chance into the low 30’s.

Many options open for next weekend, very warm, hot, sunny, thundery downpours, outright heavy rain or even a cooler northerly flow. Slight favourite for Saturday would to keep the warmth or heat, whichever we had on Thursday/Friday – slight favourite for Sunday would be a cooler northerly flow. Rain or sunshine? Could be either.…

Summer Weather Forecast 2022

Welcome to my weather forecast for Summer 2022.

A week later than I prefer, but well, life got in the way. Better late than never.

Firstly a reminder that not all of this forecast will be correct. Accurate seasonal forecasting is beyond the limits of our abilities, but we can have a good idea of the more likely patterns ahead.

Alas, events occur that can completely break a seasonal forecast – such as sudden stratospheric warming events in winter. Atlantic hurricanes can also change the course of previously expected weather.

So do bear in mind that seasonal forecasting is experimental. Some of this should be good, but some will definitely not be. My aim is to get more right than wrong.

I’m much happier with my spring forecast than I was for my winter forecast. It feels as though I got more right than wrong, including the warm spell at the end of March and the general drier and warmer feel across the season.

Next, thanks to Rose for the glorious photograph. A £15 donation has been made to Sport In Mind as a thank you. And thanks to all those that sent photographs in for the summer forecast, and even more to those who send them in without reward (other than your name in lights!) for the regular forecasts.

Background Signals

There are always less background signals driving our weather at this time of year

La Niña is the main background signal affecting global weather conditions, as it has been for nearly 3 years now. Currently on the weak side, a weak La Niña would suggest high pressure close to the south of the UK during June is somewhat more likely, with low pressure to the north – I think this flips somewhat during July and August, in theory, though I’m not entirely sure I’ve understood that correctly.

Sea surface temperatures around and particularly to the west and north-west of the UK, are much warmer than normal, which suggests a greater chance of high pressure around and to the south of the UK than normal, I believe – and subsequent warmer conditions.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation can help predict the more likely weather outcomes for the coming month, though I’m wary of it as a tool. It is currently in phase 7/8, I think, which suggests fairly changeable weather but warm weather more likely for the first half of June – the MJO then progresses into no active phase, which suggests something more settled likely.

Hurricane season is expected to be busier than normal, and these can introduce some uncertainty, particularly in August and September – as they have been known to change our previously expected weather patterns into something much cooler and wetter – or much warmer and sunnier.


Well we are in day 8 of June as I write, so pointless telling you what I think the first week will be like.

Early changeable conditions will trend towards drier and sunnier weather, tending to be warm or very warm – but with some variation in cloud amounts and temperatures, and the odd shower or weak weather front.

A strong build of high pressure over Europe to our south, with much hotter conditions than normal is likely to effect our weather in two ways for the latter half of June – we will have the opportunity to briefly import some hot conditions for short hot spells (this is uncertain – the heat may stay very close to our south instead), but more likely we will import some thunderstorms or ex-thunderstorms that have become areas of general heavy rain, so some short unsettled spells – though for most of the latter part of June we should be settled, some sunny days, some cloud at times, and more often warm or very warm.

Overall I expect a somewhat warmer than average month, a slightly sunnier than average month, and below-average rainfall – though the latter does depend on avoiding any particularly torrential downpours being imported.

Confidence level around 75%.


The more likely start to July would be something similar to how June ended – generally pleasant with decent sunny spells, and temperatures very warm/quite hot. However with the expectation that at times we may import more heat/humidity for short spells from the south – along with some outbreaks of downpours/thunderstorms.

During the middle third, perhaps middle half of July, the more likely outcome sees high pressure develop to our east. Depending on exact positioning of the high pressure and the airmass source, this could lead to some unusually hot weather – I’d suggest this is the period when heatwave conditions are more likely.

However, possible low pressure over France may cut off any source of particular hot air to this set-up, in which case we’d be looking at temperatures close to the mid/high 20’s, and an increased chance of thundery downpours at times.

No particular signal for the latter part of July, though perhaps slightly more likely somewhat fresher conditions with some showers. Very low confidence.

Overall I expect a warmer than average month, a slightly sunnier than average month and rainfall…well…it depends on if we catch any particularly torrential downpours. Around average assuming that we don’t catch anything too crazy in terms of a downpour.

Confidence level around 70% – main uncertainty is positioning of high pressure during that middle third/half of July – too far east and it could be more unsettled than I’m forecasting!


August I am a lot less confident about.

Suggestions are that high pressure is more likely to be to our north-east or north at times, with the jetstream more likely pushed south over the UK.

Which would mean low pressure and resulting rain/showers crossing the UK.

However I also think high pressure should at times build over the UK from the south-west, blocking any low pressure invasions for some short spells.

Broadly I’m going to suggest a fairly mixed month – yes some unsettled spells, but also some fine, dry weather at times too – occasionally on the hot side. I don’t have a good enough handle of likely weather patterns to have an idea of what period of August may be more likely to be unsettled, or hot, etc.

Overall I’d suggest a slightly warmer than average month, a somewhat less sunnier than average month and a somewhat wetter than average month.

Confidence level just 30%.

Summary and Autumnal thoughts

So in summary, I do expect a warmer/hotter than normal summer, with the best spell of weather probably broadly from mid-June to late-July, with the highest chance of heatwaves in the middle third/half of July. Though with some heavy showers/thunderstorms at times.

August more mixed with some unsettled spells, but very low confidence.

Autumn? Well, if a weak La Niña is still in play then I’d suggest that a wetter than normal September is more likely than not – though low confidence with the active hurricane season expected, this could easily be pushed north to leave a warmer than normal month.

A mixed October though perhaps drier than average.

An increased chance of colder northerly/north-westerly flows in November, with some frosts and generally fairly dry conditions being more likely.

No particular signals for winter yet.…