Well, I just about have a handle on the expected weather for the Jubilee Bank Holiday weekend. Do you feel lucky?

Thanks to Paul for the photograph…again.

Showers will continue this evening and the first part of the night – some heavy ones around. Drier later with limited clear spells, down to around 9’C.

Tuesday will see widespread heavy showers. Unlikely to stay dry, most places getting at least a few heavy/very heavy showers – hail and/or thunder possibly mixed in. Some sunny spells, though fairly limited, especially in the morning. Around 15’C. Some clear spells overnight, some cloud – especially later. Down to around 7’C.

Wednesday will see plenty more showers, some will be heavy with a small chance of thunder. Some sunshine at times and a small chance that you’ll miss the showers – though more likely you’ll get a few. Temperatures up a tad to 17’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 6’C.

So, the bank holiday weekend. For a few weeks I thought the more likely outcome would be a fine or more fine weekend, with some warm sunshine at times.

However, last week, the weather models were suggesting a fairly good chance of low pressure moving up from the west of Portugal/Spain, bringing at least some heavy showers for some of the long weekend.

Over the weekend that risk had reduced, and high pressure looked set to build in from the west from Thursday onwards – alas, the risk has once more increase of that low pressure making it close to the south of England, so though there is a huge amount of uncertainty for Saturday and Sunday with the potential for some heavy rain and/or showers.

I’ll attempt some details, but remember that details are uncertain, and become more so every day.

So for Thursday, the general picture is low pressure to the west of Portugal/Spain, with another one over Scandinavia – with high pressure trying to build over the UK.

It will be dry and it will start sunny. Some uncertainty on cloud amounts, it may stay mostly sunny but more likely quite a lot of cloud will bubble up from mid/late morning onwards, with more cloud than sunshine – but pleasant enough. Reaching around 20’C – should the less likely sunnier outcome occur, then maybe 22’C. Fairly clear overnight though some cloud, down to around 11’C.

Friday sees the low pressure edge a bit closer, so there will be a risk of a shower, but also warmer air will be dragged up too. Probably fairly sunny, some cloud but more sunshine than cloud overall, and temperatures somewhere in the range of 21’C to 24’C. A 20% chance of a heavy, possibly thundery shower later in the day, or into the evening. That smallish risk of a shower still there overnight.

By Saturday things are very uncertain – and depend on the position and development of the low pressure system trying to move up from Spain. I’d say the slightly more likely outcome is a fair day with some sunny spells and a small chance of a shower – likely less warm than Friday. However the slightly less likely outcome is that rain spreads up from the south, rather overcast and cool, possibly heavy and thundery rain/showers mixed in. Talking a roughly 60/40 split in terms of chances.

Sunday is similarly uncertain, with a similar split of 60/40 in terms of fine and warmish or wet and cool. Somewhat more likely to be the opposite of what Saturday was, but it could be the same.

Certainly possible that both days could be wet, or both days stay fine. Around a 30% chance that both Saturday and Sunday are fine, 20% chance that both are wet, 50% chance that one day is wet, one day is fine. Very rough percentages!

So, the uncertainty probably isn’t what you hoped for, but it is where we are. I can easily imagine Saturday/Sunday still being uncertain when I do my next forecast on Thursday – it is fine margins in terms of how that low pressure near Portugal/Spain behaves.

Suggestions for early next week is that an Atlantic low pressure system moves across either Monday or Tuesday, bringing some rain, followed by showers, but possibly followed by something drier and warmer later in the week.…

You’ll probably mostly be interested in the Jubilee bank holiday weekend weather. Well, I’m afraid that it has become very uncertain. I can tell you that it is going to become notably cooler in the meantime, thanks to a north-easterly wind – almost never a warm direction, even in late spring.

Thanks to Paul for the photograph.

Tonight sees mostly clear skies, temperatures down to around 8’C.

Saturday will be another pleasant day, though more cloud around than today – potentially it could be quite overcast for an hour or two during the middle of the day, but otherwise a mixture of sunny spells and fair weather cloud. A very small chance of a light shower. Reaching around 19’C though the breeze taking the edge off. Spells of cloud overnight, though some clear spells at times – and the odd lightish shower dotted around but most places dry. Down to around 8’C.

By Sunday the north-easterly breeze becomes more notable and visions of summer disappear.

Plenty of cloud – there will be some sunny spells but they will be limited. Some showers, nothing heavy likely but cannot be ruled out. Around 15’C and feeling cool in the notable breeze. Reasonably clear skies overnight, though some cloud around – a notably chilly night, down to around 3’C. The very most sheltered spots might even see a touch of frost. Eeek.

What would have been your bank holiday Monday (here’s what you could have won), looks OK. Fairly sunny to start but quite a lot of fair weather cloud bubbling up – some showers, possibly quite heavy but they will be hit and miss, some places staying dry. And sunny spells otherwise. Around 16’C but a much lighter breeze. Some cloud, some clear spells and the odd scattered shower overnight, down to around 5’C.

Tuesday looks like a mixture of sunny spells and showers – uncertain on shower amounts and potency at the moment, but nothing too frequent or too heavy looks more likely. Temperatures ticking up a tad to, say, 17’C. Likely clear skies overnight, down to around 6’C.

Wednesday sees a weak area of low pressure over the UK – but the more important aspect of the set-up is the low pressure to the west of Spain/Portugal – which starts to pump warmer air our way – but will it stay there?!

It is the last day that I have any reasonable confidence for though I wouldn’t be surprised if some details are off. But more likely we see reasonable sunny spells, some fair weather cloud at times, a small chance of a shower and warmer temperatures – thanks to the low pressure to the west of Spain/Portugal, reaching around 20’C, give or take.

And then it gets seriously complicated and even more uncertain.

Probably, two broad things look like they will happen from Thursday. The low pressure to the west of Spain/Portugal starts to move our way – but at the same time high pressure tries to build in from the west.

There are multiple scenarios that could occur. Amongst the more likely:

1. Low pressure moves swiftly north-east on Thursday/Friday bringing a spell of heavy rain and/or heavy, thundery showers. Warm and humid. Saturday/Sunday then fresher but more settled with some sunshine as high pressure builds.
2. Low pressure moves towards the UK on Thursday with a spell of heavy rain and/or heavy, thundery showers – but high pressure stops it moving through the UK and sends it back south. Friday through Sunday then a mixture of sunshine and cloud, with a risk of scattered heavy showers. Warm/very warm throughout/
3. Low pressure moves towards the UK on Thursday, but doesn’t quite make it and heads back south. Heavy, thundery showers still probable on Thursday but drier for the west of the weekend as high pressure builds. Warm or warmish.
4. Low pressure heads towards the UK on Thursday, bringing heavy rain and/or heavy, thundery showers – and gets stuck over the UK all weekend bringing sunshine and showers. Warm to start, but temperatures then depending on sunshine – potentially some cooler days in the mix.
5. The low pressure to the west of Spain/Portugal stays there, and we have a pleasant, warm and sunny weekend.

I guess we can conclude that bank holiday Thursday is probably going to see some heavy rain and/or heavy showers at some point, but be warm/humid.

After that, it is uncertain – possible we could have a very pleasant and warm weekend, possible we could have heavy showers all weekend – perhaps more likely a mixture of some dry, sunny weather and a few heavy showers.

Next week I’ll be back to the usual Monday/Thursday cadence, though I’ll probably do the Thursday one in the morning.…

A changeable start to the week but gradually improving.

Thanks to Liz for the photograph.

Tonight sees fairly clear skies for a while, though cloud thickening towards dawn. Down to around 8’C.

Wednesday will be rather cloudy – some limited brightness in the morning, the odd bit of light rain. Towards lunchtime and for the first part of the afternoon, cloud will be thicker with some slightly more organised light-moderate rain, brighter to finish with sunny spells. Quite windy, reaching around 17’C after the rain clears though cool during the rain. Clear spells overnight, down to around 9’C.

Thursday starts with sunny spells. It will soon cloud over and be mostly overcast, bar the odd bright/sunny spell. It should stay dry, though a smallish chance of a little light rain later in the day. Quite windy once more but warmer air aloft, we should reach 20’C or so. Cloud slowly clearing south overnight, down to around 10’C.

Friday looks a brighter day with good sunny spells, though a north-westerly breeze taking the edge off. However it will still be very pleasant, reaching around 18’C, maybe 19’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

Saturday sees high pressure over and to the west of the UK – with low pressure to the east. The exact positioning of the high pressure is still open to debate, and hence exact conditions for the weekend.

Saturday will see good sunny spells, though at least some cloud will bubble up – amounts uncertain but likely we see more sunshine than cloud overall. Maximum temperatures somewhere between 17’C and 20’C, depending on how close that cooler northerly to the east is to the UK. Fairly clear skies and a chilly night overnight, down to around 6’C, perhaps more cloud towards dawn.

Sunday is more uncertain. The slightly more likely outcome sees the breeze turn more north-easterly, inviting cloud and some patchy light rain – with a cool breeze and temperatures somewhere between 13’C and 16’C. The slightly less likely outcome sees something similar to Saturday, though more cloud – temperatures somewhere between 18’C and 21’C.

The start of next week is uncertain and will basically depend on exact high pressure positioning as per the forecast does for Saturday/Sunday. More likely it will be a continuation of whatever Sunday was.

The more likely outcome for the Jubilee Bank Holiday weekend remains for it to overall be warmer, drier and sunnier than normal. It remains possible that it could be unsettled and/or cooler than normal – it is still 9-12 days away which is an eternity in terms of specific details.

Arguably the Thursday and Friday are slightly more likely to be warmer, sunnier and drier than normal, than Saturday or Sunday are – with the risks of something cooler and/or showery greater, but still slightly below normal, on those two days. Only a small chance it will be hot, as things stand.

You can remain optimistic, but remember the less likely outcomes do happen also. Getting the positioning of high pressure resolved for this weekend, feels key to understanding how next weekend will progress.

Next forecast will be Friday evening.…

Hello! I’m back from sunny Croatia and I’ve brought the sunshine with me. Well for this weekend anyway.

Next week will be more unsettled but it should improve for next weekend again. Is it just my imagination or are we lucking out with the sunny weather timing nicely for the weekends? At least for those of us that don’t work weekends, anyway.

Thanks to Heather for the photograph from the thunderstorm the other night – normally I use photographs that have some representation of the weather ahead, but this time it is from what has passed.

Saturday morning starts with a fair amount of cloud, though bright with some sunny spells. Generally more sunshine this afternoon, albeit sometimes hazy, and still some bit of lower level cloud around. Warm, 20’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

Sunday sees high pressure remain in control for us, though the low pressure system to the north-west of Scotland is about to spin off a cut-off low to head our way.

It will be warmer, temperatures reaching around 22’C, maybe 23’C, with fairly sunny skies – though quite often high cloud will make the sunshine hazy, and perhaps some occasional low-level cloud floating around too. Fairly cloudy overnight, a small chance of a shower, down to around 10’C.

Some elements of uncertainty for Monday, though the aforementioned cut-off low will be over us and developing. A small chance of general rain for the morning – but more likely it is to our east. Otherwise fairly cloudy, some brightness, but also some showers likely – and they will probably be heavy/very heavy. Around 17’C. Further showers/showery rain likely overnight, down to around 10’C.

Tuesday will be a case of sunny spells and showers, the showers probably heavy, perhaps very heavy. Around 17’C with a notable breeze. Clear skies overnight – at least at first, down to around 9’C.

Wednesday sees a band of showery rain cross – some uncertainty on the timing, perhaps arriving as early as 4am, or maybe not until 10am. Not especially much rain – though heavy showers will follow, along with some sunny spells. Temperatures dependent on the timing of the rain band, but somewhere between 17’C and 20’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

By Thursday we should be seeing high pressure nudging in from the south-west.

It will be dry, but uncertainty on cloud amounts – I’d expect at least some sun, but potentially more cloud than sunshine overall. Temperatures somewhere between 18’C and 22’C. Clear skies likely overnight, down to around 8’C.

Friday is again uncertain on cloud amounts, though I’d favour something on the cloudier side of the spectrum. Likely warmer, somewhere between 20’C and 24’C.

Next weekend is likely under the influence of high pressure. The somewhat more likely outcome sees some cloud, some sun and temperatures somewhere between 21’C and 25’C. However the slightly less likely outcome sees high pressure a bit further north, with an easterly/north-easterly breeze and more cloud – temperatures closer to the range of 16’C to 20’C.

Looking further ahead to the Jubilee Bank Holiday weekend, and the somewhat more likely outcome is for it to be warm/very warm and dry, with some sunshine.

It’s a long, long way away in meteorological terms, so please take it with cautious optimism only. For at least the first half of June I do expect it to be drier and warmer than normal, and probably sunnier than normal – though unlikely every day will be warm, sunny and dry, there will probably be some showers at some point in this period.

Next full forecast will be on Tuesday evening.…

A warm week ahead but with some heavy, thundery showers at times.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph?

Tonight sees reasonably clear skies with temperatures down to around 10’C.

Tuesday continues the same set-up, high pressure loosely in control but with a large area of low pressure to the west driving warmth and instability north.

Tuesday should be the warmest day of the year so far. Decent sunny spells but also variable amounts of cloud – both fair weather cloud and also some high/medium level cloud making the sunshine hazy at times. We should reach around 25’C. By early evening a small band of heavy showers will cross – hit and miss, some places staying dry, others getting a heavy shower or two, with a small chance of thunder. Mostly clear skies following with temperatures down to around 11’C.

Wednesday starts sunny though it will quickly become hazy as high cloud moves up from the south. Warm, reaching around 22’C – a small chance of a stray afternoon shower. By the evening, another batch of heavy showers will spread up from the south/south-west – some very heavy rain possible, as is thunder. However, some uncertainty – some places may miss out or just get a bit of rain. Skies clearing overnight, down to around 12’C.

Thursday sees long spells of sunshine in the morning – more in the way of high cloud once again in the afternoon making things hazy. Warm, reaching around 22’C. Quite cloud overnight, though some clear spells at times, down to around 12’C.

Friday sees the low pressure to our west edge closer – though remaining quite some way to our north-west. Generally more cloud around – a chance of a spell of general rain in the morning, though uncertain as it may be further east – otherwise sunny spells and a scattering of showers, with temperatures likely a bit fresher, say 19’C. Breezy too. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Saturday then sees high pressure trying to build from the south once more.

A reasonably pleasant day – some cloud at times, but sunny spells should outnumber cloudy spells overall. Around 19’C to 21’C. Reasonable clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

Sunday should be a little warmer though uncertainty on cloud amounts – currently I’d suggest more cloud than sunshine. Temperatures somewhere between 20’C and 23’C.

The slightly more likely outcome for next week would see some changeable conditions earlier in the week and less warm, with drier weather later in the week and probably warm once more.

The more likely general pattern for the end of May and beginning of June sees temperatures warmer than normal, with more dry, fair days than showery days – though some changeable spells mixed into the broadly decent weather.

I’m away for a few days again (sunny Croatia this time), so next full forecast will probably be Friday evening, maybe Saturday morning.…

Predicting the development of showers and possibly thunderstorms in such set-ups as we have is a bit like trying to predict who will win Eurovision next year, but there are a couple of broad themes.

Away from showers, it will generally be bright with a cover of high/mid level cloud – so hazy sunshine at times, but nothing like yesterday, and feeling warm at 22’C – at least outside of the showers.

It looks like there will be a cluster of showers moving north roughly between 11am and 2pm – they are showing up in the English Channel now, some pushing into the south coast. A lot of uncertainty over how much rain there will be – there could easily be some short very heavy bursts of rain, or just some general rain (more likely) – or maybe it will all fizzle out (less likely). Thunder unlikely, but a small chance in any notable showers.

Through the rest of the afternoon, showers less likely, but possible.

And into the evening, say any time from 6pm but uncertain on timing, a renewed risk of showers – these more likely to be very heavy or torrential, thunder more possible in these too, though still more likely to miss any thunder, say a 25% chance, with an 80% chance of catching some downpours.

Tomorrow should see more sunshine but also a few scattered heavy showers, possibly thundery, and warm.

Tuesday and Wednesday, very warm or even quite hot, scattered thundery showers possible.

Full update tomorrow evening as usual.…

It looks like a case of close but no cigar, in terms of proper heat over the coming week – but it will warm or very warm. There is another but – there will be some heavy, thundery showers around too.

So the long-forecasted build of high pressure from the south is happening, but low pressure will be very close to our west – and this will lead to a fairly unstable atmosphere, so sunshine and warmth, yes, but also the ingredients for heavy, thundery showers – perhaps even outright thunderstorms will be there.

Still scope for upgrades for next week…or downgrades!

Thanks to Paul for the photograph.

Tonight will be fairly cloudy, down to around 8’C.

Friday starts to see high pressure build from the south.

Starting with quite a lot of high cloud, but this will gradually clear to leave good spells of sunshine. Warm, 21’C, maybe 22’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 7’C.

Saturday sees more good spells of sunshine. Some bits of fair weather cloud, and some high cloud at times – notably later in the afternoon. Warm, 22’C, maybe 23’C. By mid or late evening, some heavy, showery rain will spread up from the south – perhaps with some thunder. Some uncertainty on the track and timing, so perhaps it will miss us but fairly likely to see some heavy, showery rain for some part of the night. No lower than 12’C.

Sunday likely starts cloudy, depending on the timing of the overnight showery rain there could still be some left in the morning, and it could easily be heavy, possible thundery. The sun will come out later in the morning, though perhaps on the hazy side, and there will be a small chance of a thundery downpour during the afternoon. Temperatures reaching somewhere between 21’C and 25’C, depending on sunshine amounts. Uncertain overnight, but the slightly more likely outcome is further heavy, possibly thundery rain moving up from the south, with temperatures no lower than 12’C. This may instead be further east of the UK, and as such we’d have a dry but fairly cloudy night.

For Monday we remain in this warm but unstable flow.

Details a bit sketchy, but broadly some sunny spells, some cloud and one or two scattered afternoon showers – possibly on the heavy side with a small chance of thunder. On the warm side, somewhere between 20’C and 24’C, though the lower side more likely. Probably fairly cloudy but dry overnight, 13’C.

Fairly low confidence for Tuesday, but the more likely outcome is something warmer, say 22’C to 25’C, with some sunshine and some cloud, and a small chance of a shower. A risk of thundery showers in the evening, and perhaps slightly more likely overnight.

I think that is pretty much as far as I can go with any half-respectable level of confidence towards the details.

The more likely general pattern is that the low pressure to our west bringing the warmth and instability, will push the warmth east – though the low pressure itself will be deflected well to the north of the UK, so we should end up in some kind of reload pattern of the high pressure by next weekend…though I’m not yet too confident.

The tricky part is in terms of details in Wednesday to Friday, though broadly they will more likely be relatively fair days, with some sunny spells, some cloud and at least one weather front during the time bringing some showers/showery rain. Temperatures between 19’C and 23’C – though likely feeling fresher.

Wednesday is perhaps the most uncertain day, as we may just cling onto the unstable warmth for another day.

Probably continuing changeable for the rest of May but often warm, and very warm when sunny.…

The rain is a bit further south than expected and hence will push through quicker than I forecasted on Monday.

Arriving around 9/10/11am this morning – it will be patchy in nature at first so hence a bit of uncertainty on timing, fairly persistent over the lunchtime period though generally light to moderate in intensity – one or two heavy showers will be on the back edge, say between 3pm and 5pm, but they will be hit and miss.

And then there will be some sunshine to finish the day. No other updates, main forecast will be Thursday evening as usual.…

So, as expected, we have high pressure trying to move up from the south, but the Atlantic gearing up and pushing low pressure systems across. High pressure will win by the weekend, but mixed until then. And maybe next week could be on the hot side.

Thanks to Christel for the photograph.

Tonight will be cloudy, breezy and mild – no lower than 13’C, as a weak weather front approaches. Some patchy light rain arriving around dawn.

Tuesday sees low pressure in control to the north of Scotland.

Not much impact down here, but a breezy day with some patchy light rain in the morning. Sunny spells from late morning onwards with variable amounts of fair weather cloud. Warm, around 20’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 12’C.

Wednesday sees a small low pressure system cut off from the main system to the north, running over the southern third of the UK. Some uncertainty as to where and when the heaviest rain will be – more likely during the day we’ll see patchy light or moderate rain, but often be dry – with the heavy rain further west and north of us. That heavy and by then rather showery rain spreading across our region during the evening and the first part of the night – potentially very heavy for short periods, but also showery so some places may see only small amounts of rain. Temperatures around 16’C by day and 8’C by night – breezy too, particularly in the afternoon.

Thursday starts sunny. Likely rather a lot of cloud from late morning onwards, but some sunny spells. Reaching around 18’C and still breezy. Fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

Friday starts to see the build of high-pressure from the south. Decent sunny spells though there will be some cloud around at times, both high cloud and fair weather cloud. Warm, 20’C, perhaps 22’C at a push. Clear skies overnight down to around 7’C.

Saturday sees high pressure over the UK, with growing heat over Spain and the potential for us to tap into it.

There will be good spells of sunshine all day – likely some fair weather cloud bubbling up but mostly it will be sunny. Warm, 22’C – perhaps more. Clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Sunday remains mostly sunny though some uncertainty on temperatures due to uncertainty on high pressure positioning and any breeze – so reaching somewhere between 19’C and 24’C.

By Monday, we should have a more southerly flow, or perhaps more south-easterly. Good spells of sunshine should remain, though temperatures will depend on wind direction – somewhere between 20’C and 25’C. An outside chance of a heavy shower in the evening or overnight.

How much longer this lasts for is still guesswork – it could be at little as one more day, or perhaps up to 7-10 more days. There is the potential, and I stress the word “potential” for temperatures to reach the high 20s – but it does require a fairly specific outcome in terms of positional of the high pressure. However, that specific outcome is currently the slightly more likely outcome. Temperatures somewhere between 20’C and 24’C are instead also very feasible. And there will be a risk of scattered thundery showers.

Towards the end of May my working assumption is that things become more changeable, with short showery spells intertwined with short-ish dry sunny-ish spells. Temperatures more often on the warm/very warm side, occasionally close to normal.

Not bad. Not bad at all. Well, unless you prefer it cold and wet.…