Monday 28th March 2022

Cold is coming and it might even snow. Well…it is spring.

Thanks to Richie for the photograph.

This evening and overnight will be mostly cloudy with some showery rain developing and pushing up from the south, though no guarantee you will get any rain. Perhaps a little mist by dawn and down to around 6’C.

For Tuesday we have this developing area of low pressure over France, and colder air starting to spread down from the north-east.

It will be generally rather cloudy though there will be some bright/sunny spells – more likely in the afternoon, and also some very occasional showery rain, though most of that will be to our south. Around 11’C. Cloudy to start the night, though some clear spells developing for a while, before further cloud sinks south around dawn. Down to around 3’C.

Wednesday might start bright, but it will soon cloud over. Staying mostly cloudy, with some occasional mostly light rain. Reaching around 10’C though becoming cooler as the afternoon goes on. The rain becoming persistent and somewhat heavier in the evening, and could easily turn to sleet or snow overnight as cold air tucks in. Don’t be surprised if there is a slushy covering of snow by dawn – though it will very much be a nowcasting event – maybe I’ll have a clearer idea by Wednesday evening, but now is just “well maybe”. Down to around 1’C, though feeling colder in the wind.

Thursday sees sunshine and scattered showers – some heavy. Showers could fall as rain, but more likely they’ll fall as sleet, hail, snow or a mixture, especially in heavy showers. Don’t be surprised if there is a temporary covering from any heavy showers – though it will fairly quickly melt. 6’C but feeling colder in the raw wind. Clear spells overnight, a frost likely for all – down to around -1’C. A stray wintry shower cannot be ruled out. Good job Friday is April Fool’s Day and not Thursday, otherwise you might not believe me.

So Friday sees high pressure start to build from the west.

Friday again sees sunny spells and showers. Rain a bit more likely than Thursday, but sleet, snow and general wintry mixtures more likely in heavy showers. 8’C but feeling colder in the north-easterly wind. Clear spells overnight, down to around -2’C with a widespread frost.

Saturday looks fairly cloudy, with some bright spells and some showers. Showers more likely rain by this point, and generally fewer of them – but catch a heavy one and there could still be a wintry mix. Around 8’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 0’C with a frost likely for most.

Sunday still sees the colder air mass in place. Sunny spells to start, generally cloudier after with some bright spells and the odd shower. Around 9’C. Cloud amounts uncertain overnight though a frost possible with enough clearance.

The more likely outcome for next week sees a return to more westerly conditions, and a generally changeable theme – some fair days, some days with rain or showers, and temperatures broadly normal or a tad below, say 10’C to 14’C.

The unusually early and unusually strong final stratospheric warming we had recently is almost certainly the cause of this cold spell, an event pretty much akin to a sudden stratospheric warming event – the type of event that caused the Beast From The East in 2018, so there will be a good chance of further colder than normal conditions from the north during the rest of April, perhaps more likely later on, though timing is a guess.…

Thursday 24th March 2022

This is not the start of summer. I repeat, this is not the start of summer.

Something happened whilst I was having a wonderful time on holiday, and I’ve not really researched it much…well…at all. Namely that there was a strong final warming of the stratosphere, pretty much akin to a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event…I think.

An SSW in winter greatly increases the chance of significant cold spells in the coming 2-6 weeks, through high pressure blocks across our latitude, and cold air then pours out of the Arctic on the eastern side of said blocks.

Of course, it isn’t winter – it is 24 days into spring and the continent is warming. So an easterly may not be cold now – though a northerly would.

And there might be a northerly next week. And maybe, just maybe, some wintry showers. Well…it is spring.

Thanks to Liz for the photograph.

Tonight sees clear spells and it will be chilly, down to around 3’C – a frost in the most sheltered spots possible.

Friday sees high pressure remain in control, though we start to pick up a slight easterly breeze – losing the warm southerly.

Long spells of sunshine, a bit of high cloud at times and some fair weather cloud in the afternoon. Still on the warm side, 18’C should be reached, maybe a tad more. Clear skies overnight, broadly down to around 3’C though a frost possible in the most sheltered spots.

Saturday will be another very pleasant day with long spells of sunshine, and just a bit of fair weather cloud. Reaching around 18’C, maybe 19’C. Clear skies at first overnight but low cloud spilling across from the North Sea later in the night, down to around 5’C.

Sunday starts cloudy. It should clear to sunshine at some point – the morning is probably too optimistic, at some point in the afternoon will be more likely. Temperatures dependant on how long it takes the cloud to clear, so somewhere between 12’C and 17’C. Clear skies probable overnight for a while, mist/fog forming in places towards dawn and low cloud in others. Down to around 3’C, very give and take – no mist/fog and you may get a frost. All going to be pretty localised and difficult to give exact details right now.

Monday starts with mist/cloud/low cloud for most, not all. This will clear to sunny spells, and some cloud – a very small chance of an afternoon shower. Quite warm once more, 16’C or so. Uncertain on overnight conditions.

Tuesday sees colder weather spread down from the north – though at the same time low pressure edges up from Spain.

Details are sketchy as the low pressure to our south will probably make the colder air’s journey not so clean cut. Roughly speaking, cloudy, around 12’C with the odd shower – but the margins are fine so something notably colder, something sunny, something wet or even the quite warm air hanging on a bit longer are all possible.

It’s really too difficult to call from here. There are two broad patterns that I think are more likely.

The slightly more likely outcome for Wednesday to Friday sees the cold air properly sweep south, with daytime temperatures of somewhere between 4’C and 6’C, sleet and snow showers (yeah) and overnight frosts.

The slightly less likely outcome would see the cold air not quite make it down, but there would be rain/showers and temperatures around 10’C to 13’C – that kind of range.

Next weekend is very uncertain! The colder solution would be drier, the less cold solution would be more unsettled, though perhaps quite warm.

Generally the start of April is more likely to be unsettled than not.

And then it will be a case of seeing what impact (further impact?) the strong final warming of the stratosphere has. I was already expecting northerly flows to be more likely towards the end of April, in my spring forecast – maybe this is more likely now but I’m very uncertain. I need to do some research!…

Sunday 20th March 2022

Hello from sunny California! Oh, actually it’s raining.

This will be a quick forecast because I have fun to have, but I have a little spare time whilst getting ready. Nowhere near as much effort has gone into this as normal, so please be aware.

Photograph is from myself, in California, and I think is the first time I’ve ever seen a lenticular cloud…though I’m not 100% sure as they are not especially well-defined.

Tonight sees clear spells with a frost in most places, down to around 0’C.

Monday will see some cloud spread up from the south, but there will be bright and sometimes sunny spells so a pleasant and quite warm day. 15’C, maybe 16’C. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 6’C.

Tuesday sees long spells of sunshine to greet my return. Feeling quite warm at 17’C, maybe a degree or two more. Chilly overnight but frost unlikely.

Long spells of sunshine again on Wednesday, around 17’C, maybe a tad more. Chilly overnight but a frost unlikely away from the most sheltered spots.

Thursday sees more long spells of sunshine, though perhaps a bit of cloud at times. Still very pleasant, 17’C or a tad more.

Friday likely sees more good spells of sunshine. Perhaps a bit more cloud around and temperatures a tad lower, but still very pleasant, around 15’C or 16’C.

High pressure remains in control for the weekend, but with more of an easterly breeze so there will be a risk of overcast spells. Sunshine and quite warm is more likely for Saturday, Sunday is 50/50 quite warm and sunny/cloudy and cool. Not really been following the models enough to have more confidence than that.

The next week might see something colder.

Full forecast will be…midweek ish once I’m back and I’ve had some sleep!…

Monday 14th March 2022

A tentatively spring-like week ahead – not quite full-on t-shirt weather, but getting closer. And there is some rain also.

And yes, a morning forecast, because I have a plane to catch. Not sure when the next update will be – I’m sure I’ll have some hanging around and waiting time at some point, plus I’ll be needing to know the weather for my return anyway!

Today will see sunny spells. Some cloud at times, more notably through the lunchtime period, and a small chance of a shower. Around 13’C. Clear spells at first tonight, a band of cloud will edge up from the south after midnight, perhaps squeezing a little rain out in the early hours or towards dawn. Down to around 3’C.

Tuesday sees high pressure loosely in control, with a southerly flow starting to pick up.

Sunny spells though often hazy and feeling pleasant, 15’C is just about feasible. Fairly cloudy overnight with one or two showers spreading up from the south before/around dawn. 8’C or so.

Wednesday is complicated, though starting with showers spreading up from the south, perhaps heavy – though some sunny spells and feeling warmish. A band of rain will cross from the west later, most likely during the afternoon. Depending on the arrival time of the main band of rain, somewhere between 13’C and 17’C – the earlier it arrives then the lower the maximum will be. Clear skies developing overnight, a frost possible though more likely sheltered spots only. Down to around 2’C.

Thursday sees long spells of sunshine. Around 13’C, maybe a tad more. Clear spells overnight, a frost possible though again more likely sheltered spots only, down to around 2’C.

Friday sees good, perhaps long spells of sunshine. An easterly breeze picking up but still reaching around 14’C, perhaps 15’C. Probably clear skies overnight, down to around 5’C.

Saturday should again see long spells of sunshine, though the breeze starting to make it feel a bit cooler. Around 13’C. Probably clear spells overnight, down to around 4’C.

Sunday is more likely to see sunny spells, though perhaps some cloud at times. Again, the easterly/south-easterly cooling things down more, around 10’C, maybe 11’C.

Not really any clear signals for next week – showers arguably more likely than this week, and temperatures around normal to a bit above, say 10’C to 15’C.

See you when I see you. Wish me luck in Vegas.…

Thursday 10th March 2022

My housemate told me it was almost spring-like today outside. I was too busy writing code to notice, but yeah, we reached 15’C. Maybe we’ll beat that next week.

But first…some rain.

Thanks to Andy for the photograph.

Tonight sees variable amounts of cloud, perhaps a light shower, breezy and no lower than 8’C.

Friday sees weather fronts start to make progress against the high pressure block to our east.

It will start bright with hazy sunshine, but cloud will thicken with outbreaks of rain from late morning/lunchtime through to early/mid afternoon, say 3-4 hours. Some sunny spells to finish – but one or two heavy showers also. Around 10’C and windy – notably during the band of rain. Variable cloud overnight and some showers, perhaps heavy – tending to be less showers around towards dawn. 7’C and breezy.

Saturday is sunshine and showers. Most of the showers in the morning, perhaps heavy. More sunshine for a while in the afternoon, though cloud thickening from the west as the day goes on. Quite windy but mild once again, around 12’C. Cloudy overnight with some bits of rain – perhaps some more general heavy rain spreading from the south towards dawn, but that is uncertain. Down to around 7’C.

Sunday sees low pressure trying to push in from the west – but it cannot progress due to the high pressure block, and it pushes north – but also some energy splits off and heads south towards Spain – which gives us a chance of something warmish next week – if the cards play right.

Sunday is a bit…hmmm…open to correction in terms of details, but broadly probably starts cloudy with some rain – this should then move east to sunshine and showers, which could be heavy, perhaps even with a rumble of thunder. Windy and mild, around 12’C. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 4’C – though I wouldn’t rule out something colder.

Monday should see sunny spells and fair weather cloud, with the odd shower possible. Some high cloud may spread up from the south to make it hazy – if it does then the shower chance won’t happen. Mild, 13’C, maybe 14’C. Probably variable cloud overnight.

Tuesday has some uncertainty on cloud amounts…well quite a lot of uncertainty. It could be gloriously sunny, it could be bright with hazy sunshine (arguably the more likely outcome) or there could be a lot of low cloud around with some limited sunshine. Temperatures depending on cloud amounts but somewhere between 13’C and 17’C.

Wednesday is a tricky evolution but the more likely outcome is some spring-like warmth – though again uncertainty on cloud amounts.

It’s tricky because there will be a weather front trying to push down from the north-west, with colder air trying to push in from the east – but the low pressure system over southern Spain should be dragging much warmer air up through western Europe.

We could easily end up wet and mild, or cool and dry – but the somewhat more likely outcome is a warmish day with some sunshine, say between 16’C and maybe, just maybe 20’C.

It should be fresher again by Thursday with a weather front spreading some rain down either overnight on Wednesday or Thursday – unless it spread down during Wednesday.

A broad range of possible outcomes for Friday and into next weekend, though more likely dry than wet and more likely mild/quite warm then average/cold – but all normal March weather is possible.

The rest of March should balance out as warmer, sunnier and drier than normal – though some pleasant spring-like days should also see some wet days mixed in too.

So, I’m on holiday next week. Yeah, an actual going away to another country thing.

I should get time to do an update before I go away, either on Sunday or early Monday. Then…who knows. I might delete the internet for a week, though I probably will find some time to update you…I will want to know what the weather will be for my return, for sure!

See ya.…

Monday 7th March 2022

The same pattern persisting of a high pressure block to our east, weather fronts trying to push in from the west – thought they should succeed by the end of the week.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

Tonight sees mostly clear skies in a fairly cold southerly wind, down to around 0’C with a frost in places.

Tuesday starts sunny. Gradually during the afternoon cloud will increase from the west. Quite windy but milder, 11’C. A weak weather front will bring cloud and the odd spot of light rain in the evening. A few clear spells after, but cloud thickening once more as the night goes on. Around 6’C.

Wednesday sees low pressure edging closer, but we’ll remain in this mild southerly-ish flow.

Cloudy to start but the sun will break through and generally there will be sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud all day. Windy but on the mild side, 12’C. Cloud at times overnight as a weather front very slowly edges east – though it will stay dry. Around 7’C.

For Thursday it looks like the overnight approaching weather front edges back west a bit – there will be more cloud than the last couple of days, but still some bright spells with hazy sunshine. Mild, 13’C seems achievable – maybe a tad more. Breezy. Fairly cloudy overnight, around 9’C.

Friday starts dry, fairly cloudy but some hazy sunshine possible. It looks like a weather front will bring some rain later in the day – either afternoon or evening, though timing uncertain right now. Around 12’C and still notably breezy. The weather front clears east during the evening, though the odd heavy shower may follow. Down to around 6’C.

Saturday looks like seeing sunny spells though there is a fair degree of uncertainty due to a fairly vigorous low pressure system tracking in from the west – but that will struggle to progress due to the block to our east. So probably sunny spells, a small chance of a shower, and around 11’C. Rain possible overnight, though low confidence.

The somewhat more likely outcome for Sunday sees some rain at some point – though low confidence until the models resolve what Saturday’s approaching low pressure system does.

Uncertain for next week as too many influences going on, one notable influence looks like low pressure over Spain could spin up some warmer than normal air towards us – but there is the battle between the Atlantic weather systems and the cold block to the east, all in the calculation. It could just as easily be a wet week or a dry week, or a mixture of wet/dry days.

So pretty pointless in attempting a forecast. But I will say, maybe you’ll get a couple of “quite warm” days, say 15’C or so. But it is a very tricky evolution so keep expectations low on this.…

Spring 2022 Weather Forecast

Welcome to my weather forecast for Spring 2022.

Let’s hope it is more accurate than my winter forecast. I always suggest that you take these forecasts with a huge pile of salt, but normally the general pattern isn’t a mile away.

My winter summary was – “a slightly drier and colder than normal winter is expected, though with some notable unsettled spells too – especially in January”. It was slightly drier than normal, though it was milder than normal. We did get notable unsettled spells – but not in January! In fact, if you swapped my January and February forecasts around, then my winter forecast would have been half-decent.

So. Take this forecast with a bucket of salt. Often I get quite a bit right, but sometimes I get it badly wrong – like this winter.

Thanks to Jane for the photograph. A donation to the charity of your choice will be made…if you are reading then please drop me a message.

Background Signals

I’m a bit lacking in time at the moment so will be brief.

The stratospheric polar vortex remains very strong for the time of year – well, it did before a very recent warming event up there. Difficult to know whether it will recover, but if it does, then a return to westerly winds will remain likely for early spring. The warming event increases the chances of blocking highs before then – like we have right now, in fact.

La Niña is still going, so will increase the chances of westerly winds during spring, especially the early part – La Niña is fading and may be replaced by El Niño later in the year…we’ll see.


March looks like it will be dominated by a battle between a cold blocking high to the east, and low pressure systems trying to push in from a still active Atlantic.

The beginning of the month will often be settled, some days sunny, some days cloudy – though there will also be some days with slow-moving weather fronts stuck, bringing some rain. Generally quite mild, though some overnight frosts also.

Around the middle of the month, or just before, those weather systems to our west will have more success in pushing the block back, so there will be more wind and rain over the period.

For the latter third, we should see high pressure trying to push up from the south, but likely an active jetstream also. Details a bit uncertain, but I’d expect some quite warm spring-like days, and some spells of heavy rain on other days. Overnight frosts less likely, but still very possible.

Overall I expect March to be warmer than average, slightly drier than average and slightly sunnier than average.

Around 75% confidence.


April I expect to be dominated by high pressure close to, or over the UK.

April perhaps starting changeable with some occasional rain bands and sunshine/shower days – mixed with some pleasant days. The pleasant days more likely to outnumber showery days towards mid-month – temperatures will depend on exact positioning of high pressure, and some chilly nights could be expected, but hopefully some pleasant days.

Suggestions that for the latter part of April, high pressure is closer to our west, allowing more northerly or north-westerly flows to prevail, which would be cool and cloudy, perhaps with showers.

Overall I expect April to be warmer than average, slightly drier than average and slightly sunnier than average.

Around 70% confidence – main uncertainty being positioning of high pressure.


Confidence is lower for May, though high pressure seems likely to be fairly dominant.

However during the first part of March, it looks more likely to be our west, which would again bring a cooler and cloudier flow, with showers or rain at times – though some dry days also.

The middle of May may be some form of transition to something nicer – with the latter part of May more likely to see high pressure either over the UK or to our east, with warm or very warm conditions, and the odd heavy shower, being the more likely pattern.

Overall I expect May to be slightly warmer than average (though with large variations), around average rainfall, and around average sunshine – perhaps slightly below average.

Around 60% confidence. Not much in the way of long-term drivers to affect May, and the timing of the final stratospheric warming will affect when any cooler spell happens.

Summary…and summer thoughts

So, quite a pleasant spring expected. Overall a little warmer and sunnier than normal, and a bit drier than normal. If I get it wrong, I suspect that maybe I’ve underestimated how warm/sunny it will be, rather than the other way around. We shall see.

Early summer thoughts are for a hot June…but becoming increasingly unsettled in July and August – particularly August. Which feels very normal.…

Thursday 3rd March 2022

A tricky weather forecast over the next week. A large area of high pressure forming to our east, trying to push colder air in – milder air with low pressure systems trying to push in from the west. Britain in the middle.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph. Maybe I’ve used it before, but I need something with cloud in.

Tonight will be cloudy with some occasional light rain as a weather front struggles to push east. Around 8’C.

Friday will be mostly cloudy with occasional light rain. Perhaps a little brightness before dusk. Around 7’C with a bit of a breeze. Overnight still mostly cloudy, though the odd clear spell possible in the first half of the night – a few splashes of light rain possible but the main weather front will be slightly to the east. Down to around 4’C.

Saturday sees an easterly flow pick up.

It will be mostly cloudy – perhaps a little sunshine at times, though the main story sees our weather front pushing back west, bringing some showery light or moderate rain at times. Chilly in the breeze, 6’C or so. Further bits of light rain possible at first overnight, though tending to become dry with a few clear spells later in the night. A frost unlikely, but cannot be ruled out – down to around 2’C.

Sunday will see some sunny spells, but still a lot of cloud being brought in from the North Sea – the odd light shower possible. 8’C but feeling chilly in the easterly wind. Clear skies overnight, a frost probable, fog possible. If foggy then a shade over 0’C, but otherwise down to around -1’C.

Monday starts with sunny spells, but likely a cloud of cloud spilling in from the North Sea to leave a mostly cloudy day after the sunny start. Around 7’C, still a chilly easterly breeze. Clear spells overnight, probably a frost but will depend on cloud amounts – down to around 0’C.

Confidence on details starts to ebb on Tuesday, though the more likely outcome sees a sunny day and temperatures around 9’C – though the breeze still making it rather chilly. Instead, there may be much more cloud – but it depends on the exact position of the high pressure. Frost possible overnight – depending on high pressure position.

Low pressure should be nudging closer on Wednesday, but still far enough away for it to remain dry. Probably sunny and around 9’C – though again it depends on the exact high pressure position. Frost possible overnight.

Probably where I have to give up in any detail. The battle between high pressure to our east and potential colder weather, and low pressure to our west will continue.

The more likely outcome is that low pressure will win out for at least a few days. Perhaps by Thursday though more likely Friday – bringing wind and rain, though a smallish chance of some snow at first, so a snow to rain event.

That said, the high to our east could win, less likely, but it could – which would mean something colder, wintry showers possible.

I’ll try to do my spring forecast this weekend, but I make no promises. Busy life at the moment.…

Spring Forecast Photograph Request

Time to do my spring 2022 forecast.

But it needs a photograph. From you!

Usual requirements apply:

  1. It must feature spring weather. There are various types of spring weather that you could choose from – sunshine and daffodils isn’t the only thing that happens in spring!
  2. It must feature the local area.
  3. The length of the photograph must be longer than the height.

Whoever’s photograph I choose will adorn the forecast and also be the cover photograph on Facebook for the next 3 months.

And I will donate £15 to a charity of their choice. But please make it something the internet won’t start arguments about – fluffy kittens good, charities involved in politics bad. That kind of thing.

Please add them to the Facebook post or e-mail them.

The usual forecast will be issued tomorrow evening, the spring forecast hopefully over the weekend – but I’ve got so much happening that I’m struggling to find time for everything right now. I’ve even copied and pasted the same post from my winter photograph request!…