Monday 28th February 2022

Quite cloudy with slow-moving weather fronts this week – and possibly an easterly by the weekend.

Thanks to Chris for the photograph.

This evening and overnight sees rain spreading across from the west, becoming lighter over time. Down to around 7’C and breezy.

Tuesday will be cloudy with occasional light rain. Breezy and around 8’C. The occasional light rain becoming more organised and spreading up from the south in the evening – mostly moderate. This showery rain continuing overnight – tending to becoming patchier and lighter as the night goes on. Around 6’C.

Wednesday sees the start of a battle of air masses – high pressure trying to build close to our east, weather fronts trying to push in from the west.

It will remain cloudy with bits and pieces of rain – mostly light to moderate in nature. Around 7’C. The weather front cannot push any further east overnight and continues to fizzle out – so mostly cloud, the odd bit of light rain, and around 6’C.

Thursday should see some brightness at times, though it will be rather cloudy. The next weather front will be stalled not that far to our west (should be anyway) – though the odd showery spot of rain will be possible later. Mild, 12’C. Overnight is uncertain, though the slightly more likely outcome is that the weather front edges east and brings some bits of showery rain.

So from here things are uncertain, but we should see the weather front pushed back west. Maybe this happened overnight so Friday would be sunny in that case, maybe it pushes back west during Friday so we’ll be cloudy with bits of rain, until it clears west. Or maybe the weather front actually clears to our east on Friday – and then pushes back west late Friday or into Saturday. Broadly speaking it will be around 9’C.

Unusually low confidence for the Saturday, but some form of easterly is the more likely outcome. Chilly, perhaps cold, cloudy more likely, the odd light shower possible.

Likewise uncertain for Sunday, but chilly and fairly cloudy is the more likely outcome.

Very uncertain for next week due to the battle between mild/wet to the west and cold/dry to the east – a cold start to the week is certainly possible with sleet/snow showers – though mild/dry or mild/wet are only very slightly less likely.

More likely for the latter half of next week would be changeable and mild. I could use that word “uncertain” again, but I’m bored of using it.

It will take a day or two to resolve what happens this Friday – and then next week should become clearer.…

Thursday 24th February 2022

What a dark day today has been for Europe, and perilously so for Ukraine. I guess I should do a weather forecast as normal, though do forgive my lack of joy.

The general pattern sees high pressure resume its dominance of our weather.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

Tonight will see mostly clear skies. Still too much of a breeze for a widespread frost, but there will be a frost in places. Down to around 2’C.

Friday sees high pressure ridge up from the south-west.

A reasonably sunny day, some fair weather cloud during the middle part, and just about squeezing 10’C – though the north-westerly breeze will still make it feel chilly. Mostly clear overnight, though some high cloud later. Down to around 0’C so a frost for most.

Saturday starts bright with hazy sunshine. The afternoon seeing long spells of sunshine – definitely pleasant for the time of year. The breeze more of a southerly, but still only 10’C tops. Clear skies overnight, probably too much of a breeze for a frost, but a close call, down to around 2’C.

Sunday sees long spells of sunshine all day. 10’C, maybe 11’C – feeling pleasant and almost spring-like. Still a notable breeze though. Clear spells at times overnight, though mostly cloudy by dawn. Around 6’C.

Monday sees a band of rain crossing from the west – and doing so rather slowly. A bit of uncertainty on timings at this stage, more likely during the day, though perhaps not arriving until evening – will be a couple of days before timing is ascertained. It should be mostly light to moderate rainfall. 11’C, maybe 12’C and quite windy.

Tuesday is uncertain. The slightly more likely outcome is that the weather front has cleared, and high pressure builds once more with good spells of sunshine. The smaller chance is that the overnight weather front moves back north, and brings rain once more.

Wednesday depends on Tuesday, which is uncertain. So if Tuesday was sunny then Wednesday would more likely be sunny. If Tuesday saw rain moving back north, then Wednesday would probably be cloudy with some rain still possible. Probably mild.

Details also uncertain for Thursday – generally high pressure is in control but a weak weather front probably will cross on Thursday or Friday bringing a bit of rain at some point. Temperatures around 12’C – so on the mild side.

Next weekend is unsurprisingly uncertain, but dry is more likely than wet, sunny is more likely than cloudy – though temperatures could be mild, or perhaps colder from the east.

Generally March should be drier, sunnier and milder than normal – hopefully quite spring-like warmish at times in the second half, but that will depend on exact positioning of high pressure. And there could still be short cold and/or unsettled spells also.…

Monday 21st February 2022

Time to calm down…somewhat. The overall picture still sees a fairly active Atlantic, though with low pressure systems generally being pushed further north – as high pressure tries to build in from the south-west.

Changeable, in short.

Thanks to Charlotte for the photograph.

Tonight sees clear spells at first. Cloud gradually thickening with a little patchy light rain in the latter part of the night. Down to around 4’C and breezy.

For Tuesday we remain in a westerly flow.

Mostly cloudy in the morning with the odd spot of light rain. An hour or two of more persistent light/moderate rain around lunchtime, which will be followed by sunny spells and a small chance of a shower. Windy and mild, 12’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 1’C with a touch of frost in places.

Wednesday sees a weather front trying to push down from the north-west, with a ridge of high pressure slowing it down. Sunny to start, there will be quite a lot of cloud from late morning onwards, one or two scattered showers, though still some bright spells – the main rain band remaining quite far to our north-west. Becoming windy, 11’C. That band of rain will sink south-east overnight, likely in the latter part of the night, though showery in nature.

Thursday may start with some showery rain to clear – a bit of uncertainty on how quick it clears, but it will do to leave sunny spells and scattered showers. A colder air mass, temperatures around 6’C. Any showers should be of rain, but there is a small chance of a wintry mix if you catch a heavier one. Still fairly windy too. Clear spells overnight, down to around 3’C – probably too windy for a frost.

Friday sees high pressure building from the south-west.

Sunny spells, fair weather cloud, a very small chance of a shower. Around 9’C. Clear skies probable overnight, down to around 0’C give or take a couple, there is a little uncertainty on the chance of some high cloud building later in the night.

Saturday sees high pressure in control with somewhat of a southerly breeze – though France is too chilly for spring-lovers to get too excited. That said, it will be dry, there should be sunshine at least at times – some uncertainty on cloud amounts. Around 10’C. That uncertainty on cloud amounts remains overnight, with a weak weather front also likely crossing from the west, so temperatures are a bit unknown.

Sunday remains mostly settled, though again some uncertainty on cloud amounts – a small chance of a little light rain in the morning depending on the overnight weak weather front, but mostly fine with hopefully at least some sunshine at times. Temperatures around 10’C, though I wouldn’t rule out an almost spring-like 12’C – half a chance of a vaguely pleasant day.

So…next week.

It’s a very close call, as low pressure will be close to our north, the Atlantic looks busy and the jetstream will still be fairly powerful, though further north.

But the slightly more likely outcome sees high pressure continuing to strengthen from the south, with milder air – perhaps even close to quite warm, say between 12’C and 16’C. Sunshine amounts uncertain at this stage – but plausibly it could be rather spring-like.

And I do hope so as I’ve been promising a warmer, sunnier and drier than normal March for a long time – my winter forecast was a disaster, at least for January & February, so would be nice to be back on form.

It’s still a close call, it could easily end up unsettled, or similar to this week and changeable, but there is hope of a taste of early spring.…

Thursday 17th February 2022

Storm Eunice is on her way.

Thanks to Chickena for the photograph.

Tonight sees outbreaks of rain from around midnight, perhaps a stray shower before. Much of the rain light, though some heavyish bursts towards dawn. Winds becoming strong towards dawn, and becoming milder towards dawn too, around 7’C this evening but 11’C by dawn.

Friday sees Storm Eunice cross the country.

Morning rain will clear quickly to sunny spells, with another band of cloud and patchy rain around lunchtime, and then more sunshine and perhaps a shower.

Winds are expected to gust widely around 70mph, a small chance of 80mph gusts in places. 70mph gusts are easily enough for widespread disruption and plenty of damage – fences down, trees/branches down, some roof tiles falling – etc. If you go outside – be careful! It’s not for me to advise you, I’m just a bloke with a weather blog, use your own judgement. I shall be staying inside – it will be pretty wild outside. Then again, I stay inside during those hours most days as I’m working. Hmmm…wonder if my Ocado delivery for 1pm will happen?!

Anyway, the strongest of the winds will be roughly 10am to 4pm, perhaps the very peak winds 11am to 1pm, but a bit of guesswork there. By 6pm it should be normal strong winds – I expect to go for my early evening walk with no more risk than any other evening.

Mild in the morning at 11’C, colder in the afternoon at around 7’C.

Mostly clear skies overnight, the winds continue to abate though never less than a fresh wind, 2’C.

Saturday starts sunny. A band of heavy rain will cross roughly between 10am and 1pm, perhaps a touch of sleet mixed in. Sunny spells and scattered heavy showers follow, I wouldn’t rule out a rumble of thunder. Strong winds during the band of heavy rain, and occasionally gusty after. 8’C. Clear spells and light winds in the evening, down to around 2’C, becoming cloudy and windy once more after midnight.

Sunday will be cloudy with rain erratically moving down from the north-west. In the morning the rain should be mostly light/moderate and patchy. Some heavier bursts in the afternoon, perhaps briefly very heavy, though it remains showery. Strong winds again, gusting around 50mph, maybe 60mph by late afternoon – so there could be further damage/disruption, though not to the extent of Friday. Milder, 11’C. Strong winds continue overnight, variable cloud, one or two passing showers around, down to around 2’C.

The strong winds continue on Monday.

Rather cloudy at times, though some sunny spells. One or two showers around, but nothing of note. 9’C. Clear skies at first overnight, down to around 4’C, clouding over as the night goes on with some bits of showery rain before dawn. Fairly light winds!

Tuesday morning looks mostly cloudy with some showery rain. Sunny spells follow and quite mild too, 12’C.

Wednesday looks like seeing a ridge of high pressure across the south – so it should be fair, some sunshine, some cloud, light winds and around 9’C.

Thursday currently looks like a band of rain will cross in the morning (perhaps Wednesday night) and this will introduce colder air from the north-west. Sunny spells probably follow, with one or two scattered showers – perhaps wintry showers, and windy too. Around 6’C.

Friday, probably similar to Thursday, though fairly low confidence on details right now.

The slightly more likely outcome for next weekend sees high pressure move up from the south – though I’m very low on confidence as I don’t see the jetstream calming down for a few weeks. I think it will move further north to leave us with a mostly dry March (hopefully warmer than normal too), but it may take a bite out of March first.

Have a good weekend – hopefully you won’t be doing too much clearing up.

And don’t forget to charge your phone!…

Storm Eunice Update

Friday’s Storm Eunice has not yet started developing, so there remains some uncertainty on track and intensity, but the most likely track for the strongest winds is now over the south of England – yes, us.

Strongest between late morning and early evening, I’d now be surprised if wind gusts didn’t reach 70mph, maybe 80mph. I wouldn’t totally rule out something even stronger. I don’t remember the last time we had gusts of 80mph…maybe not this century?

70mph is easily enough for fairly widespread damage and disruption, 80mph gusts certainly would be. Please take Met Office weather warnings seriously – I’d expect them to update to an amber warning today.

The Met Office model currently shows 130kph wind gusts for midday on Friday, which is 80mph.

However, as it has not yet started forming, it is still within the bounds of possibility that the worst of the winds is further south or further north of us. Possible it could downgrade a bit (though also it could upgrade a bit!). It’s around an 80% chance that we catch the brunt of it.

I think it is the most serious storm since I started doing these forecasts many years ago. So please do take notice and make suitable precautions.…

Monday 14th February 2022

A rather wild week ahead, with a particularly nasty system expected on Friday. Buckle in.

Thanks to Paul for the photograph – not the most appropriate of photographs ever, but the only one I have for you. Plus, it’s from one of my favourite spots in Reading.

Showers fading this evening, clear spells for a time with temperatures down to 2’C. Cloud thickening from the west before dawn.

For Tuesday (well…all week) we have a powerful jetstream heading straight towards us, fuelled by some very cold air flooding out from Canada into the Atlantic Ocean area.

Initially bright but soon clouding over, rain from around 9am, some heavy bursts through the lunchtime period, clearing around 2/3pm. 9’C and quite windy. Further rain arriving around 9/10pm, some of this rain light but some fairly heavy bursts will be mixed in overnight. Rain clearing before dawn, becoming windier as the night goes on – and milder, 12’C.

Wednesday morning will see some sunny spells. Generally cloudier in the afternoon, a little light patchy rain possible. Very mild, 14’C – though strong winds especially later in the day. One or two scattered heavy showers in the evening, though the winds the main strong point – gusts of 50mph likely, perhaps more, which will be sufficient for a little damage and the odd train down. Remaining very windy overnight, though with clear spells, down to around 4’C.

Thursday sees a nose of high pressure bring something a bit less unsettled. Sunny spells, though a few scattered showers in the wind – those winds easing a bit though still notable all day, and strong in the morning. 9’C. Rain spreading across overnight, and winds becoming strong by dawn.

Friday sees a nasty low pressure system cross the country. Still some uncertain on exact developments, it may be a little stronger than this, or a little less strong. Uncertainty on when the overnight rain clears also, though probably still some rain in the morning – this clearing to sunshine, a bit of cloud and the odd scattered shower.

However, it is the wind from Storm Eunice that will be the main story. 60mph gusts at a minimum are likely (not yet 100% certain), but wherever catches the brunt of the storm across England/Wales could easily see 70-80mph gusts. At the moment it looks slightly more likely the core of the winds will be Midlands or North England, but only slightly more likely – it could easily be down here.

60mph gusts of wind is enough for some damage and disruption. 70-80mph, especially across the south of England where we don’t often get battered by such winds, is enough for fairly widespread damage and disruption.

Keep an eye on forecasts – and Met Office weather warnings.

Winds will ease in the evening and overnight on Friday, a chilly night likely.

Saturday looks windy, with sunshine and showers – showers may merge into a band of general rain during the middle of the day. Around 7’C.

Further strong winds on Sunday, with showers or rain likely at some point – details otherwise uncertain.

High pressure probably starts to build from the south next week, though it may take a couple of attempts to deflect the jetstream far enough north – I guess changeable will be the main theme, some settled days, wind and/or rain on other days.

Good luck with your fence.…

Saturday 12th February 2022 – Rain Update For Tomorrow

I left a little uncertainty on Thursday night as to the timing of the rain for Sunday. Arriving from the west around 10am, give or take an hour, it will persist all day – sometimes quite heavy, though generally moderate in intensity. Clearing…well…maybe around midnight, perhaps later.

Some fairly strong winds too.

Nothing else to say. Full update on Monday evening as usual.…

Thursday 10th February 2022

A couple of colder and dry days, followed by something more unsettled – the track of the jetstream and the brunt of the low pressure systems will be to our north but it will feel like a normal level of unsettled for winter.

That high pressure to our south just keeping things less wet than might otherwise be expected in a similar westerly pattern.

Thanks to Helen for the wonky photograph. Or maybe artistically angled?

Tonight sees mostly clear skies, winds falling light later and a slight frost for most by dawn, down to around 0’C.

Friday sees a short-lived ridge of high pressure – low pressure waiting to the west.

Sunny to start, high cloud will gradually build during the day, and some area of low cloud too in the afternoon – so more a case of bright spells in the afternoon. 7’C. Some clear spells overnight, though always high cloud, and some general cloud at times. Down to around 2’C – a frost unlikely.

Saturday will be bright with spells of hazy sunshine. A weather front will be trying to edge down from the north-west, but won’t arrive until around early evening – and only with bits of showery rain. 8’C and windy. Cloudy overnight with a little patchy rain – further heavy rain will spread up from the south-west during the night but should stay to our west until the morning…should. 6’C.

Sunday sees rain spreading across from the west – timing is uncertain at the moment, but we can easily expect 6 or more hours of rain, sometimes heavy, arriving probably in the morning at some point. Fairly windy and around 9’C. Further showers possible once the main rain clears, this continues to be the case in overnight. Down to around 4’C.

A bit of uncertainty on exact details for Monday, but broadly sunny spells, showers and breezy. Around 8’C. Clear skies overnight, a frost possible, down to around 1’C.

Tuesday likely starts bright. A weather front is expected to cross in the second half of the day – perhaps fairly limited rain but uncertain at this stage. Strong winds likely, temperatures around 10’C.

Wednesday remains in this strong westerly flow – also a very mild flow with 14’C very possible.

Otherwise a bit uncertain, though more likely cloudy with bits and pieces of light rain – though often dry.

Thursday looks like seeing high pressure nudge up from the south – a pattern I expect to repeat later in February and especially in March. So assuming so for next Thursday, then sunny spells and around 11’C.

The more likely outcome for Friday sees some rain spreading across…but it’s 8 days away so take with a pinch of salt.

Slightly more likely outcome for next weekend is dry with some sunshine, though potentially windy. Only 60/40 chance – the latter being some sunshine, some rain.

There are further signs of sunnier and warmer than normal conditions for March and possibly late February, even the Met Office seem to be on board with “temperatures are most likely to be above average”, when mentioning March. Another week or so and such conditions might be appearing in shorter-term models which is when I’ll get excited. Wouldn’t an early spring be nice?!

No guarantees yet though. Weather expectations can suddenly change.

Have a good weekend.…

Monday 7th February 2022

A few milder days followed by a few colder days. Mostly dry though one spell of rain midweek.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

Mostly cloudy tonight. The odd spot of light rain possible this evening, a few clear spells towards dawn, around 8’C.

Tuesday sees high pressure close to our south – low pressure towards Iceland where the jetstream is powering along.

Quite a lot of cloud around, but there will be some sunny breaks at times. Breezy and mild, 12’C. Fairly cloudy overnight though a few clear spells, down to around 7’C.

Wednesday will be mostly cloudy as a weak weather front slowly sinks south – giving a little showery light rain at times. A few bright spells probable, but mostly cloudy. 11’C in a light breeze. Cloudy overnight – the weather front edging back north with some showery rain after midnight, down to around 5’C.

Thursday sees colder air push down from the north-west.

It starts cloudy with outbreaks of rain – some uncertainty over how far north it will have pushed overnight, so how long it will take to clear as it pushes back south again is uncertain. A rain clearing time of midday is a vague estimate, it could be a few hours either way. There is an outside chance of a little sleet mixed in with the rain as the cold air tucks in. Sunny spells following, 6’C in a chilly breeze. Clear skies overnight and a frost, down to around -1’C.

Friday sees long spells of sunshine. Fairly chilly at 6’C. Some high cloud spreading across overnight but clear enough for a frost, down to around -2’C.

Saturday looks bright with some spells of hazy sunshine, and some cloud at times too. Quite windy – weather fronts not far to our north and west, but high pressure hanging on. Around 8’C.

At some point either Saturday night or during Sunday, rain will then spread across from the west.

Next week does look like a more disturbed spell of weather than for a while, though the low pressure track should be further north so we’ll avoid the brunt of things – but do expect some rain at times, it to be often windy and also for it to be mild more than not.

I doubt it will take very long for high pressure to our south to become more influential, so for the last week of February we’ll probably go back to a similar pattern to this week, with small chances of something briefly spring-like.

Still expecting a very pleasant March.…

Thursday 3rd February 2022

There’s some rain in the forecast!

Thanks to Sue for the photograph.

A few clear spells at first tonight, but mostly cloudy. A band of rain arriving by around dawn, or just after.

Friday sees colder air move down from the north-west.

Around or shortly after dawn will see 2-3 hours of rain, perhaps quite heavy. There may even be a little sleet or wet snow mixed in, as colder air digs in behind – though mostly rain. Sunshine and some fair weather cloud following from around late morning/lunchtime, with just a small chance of a passing shower. Feeling cold in the wind, just about reaching 7’C. Clear skies overnight, probably too much of a breeze for a frost, down to around 2’C.

Saturday morning starts sunny with some high cloud. Gradually the sun becomes hazier, generally thicker cloud as the afternoon goes on with one or two splashes of light rain possible. Becoming windy though from the slightly milder west, 9’C. Cloudy overnight with showery light rain at times, perhaps something heavier towards dawn, though some uncertainty on this. Around 10’C.

Sunday looks like it will start with some showery rain, the odd heavy burst – there is a little uncertainty as to this rain developing, but it should do. This rain should clear around mid-morning, followed by sunny spells, and one or two scattered showers – the wind becoming strong too. 9’C though feeling colder in the wind. Clear skies and lighter winds overnight, though probably still too much of a breeze for a frost, down to around 2’C.

Monday sees our high pressure friend to the south reassert itself once more. Bright with sunny spells in the morning, albeit likely hazy. Cloudier in the afternoon. Around 9’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, down to around 7’C.

Tuesday looks like seeing quite a lot of cloud, though there should be some sunny spells at times – more likely in the afternoon. A southerly-ish flow making it milder, around 12’C – maybe 13’C which could be half-pleasant in any sunny spells. Fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 7’C.

Wednesday probably hangs on to the milder weather. Quite a bit of cloud around, but some sunny spells, and around 12’C. A weak weather front probably crossing overnight with a little patchy rain, bringing something colder to follow.

Thursday is probably colder, around 7’C. Not too confident on weather conditions yet, though sunny spells seems more likely. Frost possible overnight.

The most likely outcome for Friday and into next weekend sees fairly cold air over the country, temperatures somewhere between 5’C and 7’C. Sunny spells the more likely weather conditions, with overnight frosts. A small chance of a shower or two on Friday.

For the second half of February, mostly dry, often mild though occasional cold snaps possible. A reasonable chance of something spring-like (ish) by the end of the month.

See ya.…