Monday 27th December 2021

Becoming very mild and rather wet.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

This evening sees further showery rain, clearing around 11pm ish, remaining cloudy overnight with the odd spot of light rain, with further showers arriving before/around dawn, possibly heavy. 10’C.

Tuesday starts with some sunny spells but also some heavy showers. Quickly clouding over with some patchy rain mid/late morning, mostly cloudy and mostly dry for the afternoon. 10’C and windy. Some clear spells at first, down to around 5’C but quickly clouding over from the south-west, with rain arriving around 3am, give or take.

By Wednesday we’ll be seeing this much milder air pushing up from the south.

The morning will see outbreaks of rain, some heavy. Mostly dry once the rain clears, perhaps a little sunshine, but notable mild, 15’C. Quite windy too. Mostly cloudy overnight, some disorganised bits of showery rain at times, fairly windy, 13’C.

Thursday remains in this very mild, cloudy flow. Some bits and pieces of mostly light rain, mostly in the morning as the focus for this will shift north as pressure builds from the south. Still fairly windy, 14’C, maybe 15’C. Cloudy overnight, some bits and pieces of rain at times, more so in the second half of the night. Windy, 12’C.

New Year’s Eve should actually see some sunshine. I know, sunshine in 2021 – feels like the cloudiest year ever to me. Sunshine amounts uncertain but at least some sunshine is likely, a tad less mild, 13’C and more breezy than windy. Probably cloudy for a good chunk of the night, a little light rain or drizzle possible at times, mild, 11’C.

New Year’s Day sees high pressure in charge, close to our south-east. Probably actually rather sunny again, some cloud possible at times and still fairly mild, around 12’C. Breezy too.

Uncertain for overnight and into Sunday, but the more likely outcome sees rain spreading across from the west – timing and other details uncertain, though still mild.

Next week looks changeable, with some rain at times, but some dry days too. Temperatures generally trending back down to normal, though some mild days still likely, some cooler days possible.

I don’t see any possibility of anything cold until 8th January at the earliest. And even then it is more a window of opportunity for a short/shortish cold spell rather than something I think has a reasonable chance of happening.

The latter half of January I expect to be mostly wet, windy and mild. It’s just that week 2 going into week 3 part that could offer something for cold weather fans…could.

Not sure when the next forecast will be – my Christmas Day will be on Thursday, so it will be whenever I get around to it, probably Friday or the weekend at some point.

Enjoy the rest of the festive season.…

Thursday 23rd December 2021

A wet Christmas it is.

The battle between colder air to our north-east and much milder but wetter air to the south-west, will take place over the Christmas period. Still some uncertainties in terms of details such as when it will rain, and what temperatures as these battles are difficult to forecast, but broadly the pattern is set now.

And in a week’s time, it almost certainly will be very mild.

A week ago I was pretty convinced that it would be a dry and cold Christmas – and yet we have the opposite. I’m not entirely sure what has caused such a dramatic pattern change from expectations, my suspicion is that the typhoon over the Philippines a week or so ago changed the pressure patterns, and hence downstream this is the knock-on effect.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

This evening and overnight will be mostly cloudy. A few clear spells at times earlier, but this will lead to mist and fog in places. Down to around 6’C.

Christmas Eve sees low pressure to our west trying to push in, though colder air to the north actually digs south a little.

It starts cloudy, some mist/fog patches though they will shift fairly quickly. A band of rain arrives in the afternoon, approximately 2pm, give or take, some heavy, perhaps very heavy. A bit of uncertainty as to how long it takes to push north as it will be pushing into the colder air which is trying (and ultimately about to fail) to push south – so around 4 hours of showery rain seems more plausible, but anything up to around 8 hours. Around 10’C. Generally cloudy overnight, the odd spot of light rain at times possible, 6’C.

Christmas Day (or just Saturday to me isolating at home on my own) sees the colder air nudging south a little. It will be cloudy – Friday’s band of rain to our north will sink south but also fizzle out – perhaps it will bring a little light rain. The next band of rain will arrive in the afternoon, timing uncertain though 2pm feels more likely, but as late as 5pm wouldn’t surprise. Likely showery and some heavy, it will continue well until the evening. 6’C and feeling colder. Rain slowly clearing overnight, 6’C.

Boxing Day is a bit uncertain, but broadly fairly cloudy to start, the odd showery bit of rain possible – probably some brighter spells later. Around 9’C.

Uncertain overnight. A new area of low pressure is going to approach, though at the moment it could head over France, or it could head over the south of England – so there could be a spell of heavy rain either overnight or into Monday, or it could remain dry, cloudy and possible foggy.

Monday’s forecast depends on what happens with this possible low pressure system, so there isn’t much I can say until that is resolved.

Tuesday, again uncertain, but the more likely outcome is cloudy with a bit of rain, but not likely too much. Around 11’C.

For Wednesday we should be seeing much milder air spread up from the south-west, as a strong area of high pressure builds over Spain and pushes north – oh for it to be July.

Likely windy with a band of rain at some point – timing unknown. But the story will be the mildness, around 14’C – perhaps even higher.

Thursday remains very mild, probably cloudy, perhaps some rain but unknown – less likely to rain than previous days.

Probably dry on New Year’s Eve, though it is a long time away – likely still very mild though. Possible somewhere in the UK might record the warmest ever New Year’s Eve – the record is 15.6’C set in 1901, in Great Yarmouth – would be somewhere north-east if it happens.

2022 likely starts very mild. Uncertain on any other weather conditions, though dry is slightly more likely than wet.

There is a chance of a cold and possible snowy easterly after the beginning of January, I rate it around a 30% chance and it would give a very notable 7 day (ish – very ish) cold spell if it occurs, but it is very early days, and lots needs to happen first. The kind of period would be somewhere between 5th January and 18th January, some section of that.

Otherwise January will be fairly mild, fairly wet and fairly windy.

Despite my Christmas being delayed and me therefore being slightly Grinch-like, I do still wish you all a pleasant Christmas – and if you don’t celebrate Christmas then I wish you a pleasant extended weekend. Well, unless you don’t celebrate Christmas and you work in retail or some other job without any time off in which case I wish you…joy.

I’ll either be back on Monday evening as usual, or perhaps Sunday evening if those little white sticks grant me permission to leave London before my 10 days are up.…

Tuesday 21st December 2021

A short update this week I’m afraid, partly because there is a huge amount of uncertainty from Christmas Day onwards, but also because I’ve finally succumbed to covid – yeah, great timing.

So I don’t have much energy. No sympathy required as many people have had it far worse, I trust that you wish me well as I do all of you – no doubt some of you have Christmas plans delayed, or worse.

Anyway, it will be brief.

Frosty tonight, down to around -2’C.

Hazy sunshine on Wednesday, cloud gradually thickening, cold, 5’C. A little showery rain in the evening.

Thursday cloudy, milder, some light rain at times, 10’C by the evening. Fog possible overnight.

Christmas Eve, mild, cloudy, some rain late afternoon/early evening, 10’C.

Christmas Day is where the fun, and the uncertainty starts. Cold air to the north is trying to push down, at the same time milder air, with weather fronts is trying to fully take control.

It looks like cold air will win out but how quickly (and then how long for) is the question.

Christmas Day does look like it will probably be wet, with some outbreaks of heavy rain. I’d suggest that there remains a 15% chance that by the evening the cold air could have enough influence to turn the rain to snow, but that does mean an 85% chance that it will stay as rain – it is borderline, but temperatures dropping only to around 4’C, unlikely to be sufficient for snow.

Boxing Day and Monday will remain on the cold side. Some rain probable on Boxing Day, with around a 25% chance of at least some sleet or snow. Monday looks drier.

Then probably cold and dry with overnight frosts is the theme for at least a couple of days, with unsettled and milder conditions for a short spell after (snow to rain event at first very possible), though timing uncertain, perhaps starting before NYE, perhaps shortly after.

However, I stress all of this, from Christmas Day onwards is subject to a high degree of uncertainty – there is a small chance of cold air not winning out on Christmas, and it just being mild and wet for a few days, likewise cold air may dig in further, and enhance the chance of heavy snow.

Hopefully I’ll be back to normal by Thursday evening and can give a better forecast…and hopefully things are clearer then too.…

Friday 17th December 2021

A couple more boring, cloudy days before it becomes much more interesting. So interesting that there is a chance, I stress the word chance, of a White Christmas.

I left you last time by stating that Christmas Day would be most likely cool or cold, but dry. But there was a small chance of colder weather moving in from the east or a small chance of something mildish by Christmas Day.

Well, both are probably going to be kind of true. Colder air will filter down next week from the north-east, and it looks like over the Christmas period (24th to 26th ish), some low pressure systems will cross the UK from the north-west or west – the boundary zone where this rain hits the cold air, will likely turn to snow.

Where the boundary is…well…you can read on but I don’t know yet. And won’t know until…hmmm…Tuesday I guess? The boundary could be Scotland, it could be the north, or midlands, or us…or even France. North of the boundary would be dry, cold with a chance of a wintry shower, south of the boundary would be wet, possibly very wet.

We do have a ticket this year to the White Christmas raffle.

Anyway…thanks to Louise for the cloudy photograph.

Tonight will be cloudy. No surprise there. 7’C. A small chance of mist/fog patches.

Saturday sees high pressure in control, over the UK, though it is just starting to drift north a little.

It will be cloudy and dull all day. I cannot totally rule out a few glimpses of sunshine, but cloudy rules. Around 7’C in a chilly but light breeze. Mostly cloudy overnight, though one or two clear patches could mean mist/fog forms in places. Around 5’C.

Sunday will be cloudy – some mist/fog patches possible in the morning. The breeze shifting to a northerly, and a tad colder at 6’C. Cloudy overnight, perhaps a spot of light rain, 4’C.

Monday will be fairly cloudy but there will be some sunny spells at times. The odd spot of light rain possible early morning. 6’C in a chilly, light breeze. Plenty of cloud overnight but some clear spells – probably too much cloud for a frost bar the more rural spots, but a close call – down to around 2’C.

Tuesday actually looks quite sunny. There will likely be some cloud around at times, but more in the way of sunshine than for some time. Alas, it will be a bit colder, say 5’C. Clear skies likely overnight with a notable frost, down to around -3’C. A chance of fog by dawn – kind of uncertain.

Wednesday stays dry – colder air continues to sink south and those low pressure systems in the Atlantic edge closer. But otherwise, it should be mostly sunny, some high cloud in the afternoon, some early fog patches possible – but notably colder, around 3’C. Fog possible at first overnight, frost likely, though probably clouding over as weather fronts approach. Down to around -2’C.

Then from Thursday it gets interesting, as I mentioned in my introduction. It is far too far out for anything other than vagueness, anyone that tries to tell you otherwise knows nothing about weather forecasting.

So there’s a small chance that low pressure actually tracks to our south over the Christmas period, over France, and we’ll just stay dry and cold – likely colder than it has been with significant overnight frosts and struggling above freezing during the day.

But the more likely outcome seems to be that low pressure does make inroads towards the UK, so from Thursday onwards there will be a risk of rain and/or snow at times, for a few days.

It’s really fine margins and considering just 4 days ago I was confident of a dry and cold Christmas, but now I’m fairly confident of low pressure and rain/snow – I think there is a lot of scope for changes still.

So there is a chance of a White Christmas. I’d say around a 15% chance down here. With a 50% chance of seeing some snow at some point between Thursday and Boxing Day.

After that it is roughly 40/60 as to whether we have a short unsettled and mildish spell, or we have a more notable cold spell.

There is certainly a good chance of a notable cold spell either late December or early to mid January.…

Monday 13th December 2021

Boring is back.

No, I’m not referring to myself, but to high pressure which will be the dominant feature of our weather this week, well, probably for the rest of the month. Mild to start this week, but cooling down gradually.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy. Should the cloud break up then mist/fog will form, but it feels unlikely for most. The odd spot of light rain/drizzle at times, more likely towards dawn. 10’C.

Tuesday sees the jetstream quite far to our north, with high pressure building from the south. Ahhh, if only it was summer.

It will be cloudy, a little light rain/drizzle at times, more likely in the morning. A few sunny breaks possible in the afternoon. Mild, 13’C. Staying cloudy overnight, the odd spot of light rain possible, 10’C.

Wednesday will be mostly cloudy and dull. The odd spot of light rain possible at times, perhaps a few sunny breaks in the afternoon. 12’C. Cloudy overnight, a little drizzle possible, some mist also, 9’C.

Thursday will again be mostly cloudy. A little drizzle possible, perhaps a bit of afternoon sunshine in places. 10’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, mist/fog forming in places, 6’C.

By Friday, high pressure is centred over the UK.

It will be cloudy again and starting to feel cooler at around 7’C. If fog formed overnight, then it will likely be slow to clear and temperatures would be lower than 7’C. Cloudy overnight, around 6’C.

Saturday is, and I’m sure you are bored of me now, likely cloudy. I cannot rule out less cloud by this stage, but most likely it will be cloudy all day. 8’C in an easterly breeze. Cloudy overnight, mist/fog possible, around 6’C.

Sunday looks cloudy and chilly – temperatures around 6’C. Likely cloudy overnight, down to around 4’C.

High pressure likely remains in control for Christmas week. Cool or cold is most likely, uncertainty on cloud amounts, which will depend on the exact position of our high pressure block – if cloud does clear then overnight frost and/or fog will become likely.

So, most likely, Christmas Day will be dry and cool or cold. Frost/fog possible – depending on cloud amounts.

There is a small chance, say 15-20% chance, that our high pressure may migrate a bit further north next week, allowing colder weather with a chance of wintry showers to migrate from the east. Which makes it around a 5-10% chance of a White Christmas.

But also there is a small chance that it may sink south and allow something mildish by Christmas Day.

Even if colder weather doesn’t arrive from the east by Christmas, then this will remain possible after Christmas and into the New Year – I rate a notable easterly or northerly flow with sleet/snow showers at around a 40% chance, at some point during this period.

The weather might be boring this week, but could be more interesting for Christmas. As ever, we shall see.…

Thursday 9th December 2021

Fairly cold with some rain for a couple more days, milder and mostly dry from Sunday.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

This evening will be cloudy as a developing band of rain crosses from the west, some heavy bursts mixed in. Clearing around 2am, with clear skies by around dawn. Milder during the rain, down to around 3’C by dawn.

For Friday we’ll be in a fairly cold north-westerly flow, with low pressure to our east.

It will be mostly sunny, some bits of cloud at times but a pleasant, if fairly cold day. 6’C and quite windy. Clear skies overnight, down to around 0’C with a frost in places – the wind becoming more of a breeze.

Saturday starts bright with hazy sunshine. A weather front will cross during the afternoon bringing showery rain – some heavy bursts possible, particularly late afternoon/early evening. 6’C and breezy. The weather front hangs around in the evening and overnight – some rain at times, but some lengthy dry spells too. Becoming mild, up to 11’C.

Sunday looks mostly cloudy. Some bits of light rain still possible, more likely in the morning. There should be some sunny breaks in the afternoon, though still mostly cloudy. Mild, 13’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, 11’C.

Monday looks mostly cloudy. A weather front stuck to our west may make some inroads bringing a little patchy rain – but more likely it stays dry. 11’C. That weather front slowly crossing in the evening and overnight, bringing a bit of showery rain, 9’C.

Tuesday looks mostly cloudy, again. The cloud perhaps thinning for a time in the afternoon, though uncertain at this stage. Around 10’C. Probably cloudy overnight.

Wednesday is quite uncertain – it could be cloudy and dry, it could be cloudy with some rain, or it could be sunny.

The reason for this uncertainty is that high pressure will build from the south either Wednesday or Thursday.

Were it summer, it would be pretty glorious and hot – almost the perfect pressure pattern.

Alas it is December.

So Thursday onwards will be dry, but at the moment I’m unsure whether it will be a cloudy high, and therefore on the mild side, or a sunny high with temperatures closer to normal, but with risks of fog/frost.

For Christmas week, by far the most likely outcome is that high pressure remains close by and we’ll remain dry, or mostly so. Uncertain at this stage if we stay mildish or become colder once more – the latter would give a chance of wintry showers so a White Christmas cannot be ruled out, though a dry Christmas is far more likely.

Certainly a good chance of at least a short cold spell with wintry showers at some point in the last 10 or so days of December, and into the first week of January.…

Monday 6th December 2021

Fairly cold and unsettled – with some strong winds on Tuesday from Storm Barra.

Thanks to Sara for the sunrise rainbow – quite unusual!

Clear skies tonight with a frost forming, down to around -1’C. Some high/medium level cloud by dawn as Storm Barra approaches.

Tuesday sees Storm Barra arrive – nothing too unusual but still rather potent.

It will start bright but cloud will thicken with rain from around 11am, there will be around 5 hours of persistent rain, some heavy – probably some brief very heavy rain towards the end of the band. Winds will be strong, and gusting close to 50mph for an hour or two towards the end of the rain band – enough for the odd fence panel to come down, that kind of thing. Around 8’C. Clear spells and lighter winds for a time in the evening, but the wind becoming strong again overnight, with a few showers too, down to around 5’C.

Wednesday sees Storm Barra stuck over the UK – unable to progress any further east due to the high pressure block over Scandinavia. Quite a lot of cloud, some showers at times, some sunny spells and windy too – though winds slowly easing as the system decays. 6’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, some clear spells, chance of a shower, 5’C.

Thursday looks fairly cloudy – probably dry, some sunshine possible at times. Around 6’C. A band of showery rain crossing overnight, down to around 4’C in a north-westerly wind.

A bit of uncertainty as to how quickly the rain clears on Friday, the most likely outcome is that it will have cleared by dawn but there is a smallish chance that it hangs on for a bit. Sunny spells will follow, but feeling pretty cold in a north-westerly wind, around 5’C. Clear spells for a time in the evening/overnight – cloud thickening from the west as the night goes on. Around 0’C with a frost in places.

Saturday starts dry, probably bright. Another weather front will bring some rain in the afternoon – though timing and amounts uncertain. 6’C. Rain continuing in the evening and overnight – clearing at some unknown point. Likely milder overnight, say 10’C.

Sunday looks mild and probably rather cloudy, around 11’C.

Next week likely sees the jetstream head north as high pressure builds from the south/east.

Starting milder, some rain and wind possible at times though the bulk of the effects from low pressure systems will increasingly be over the north of the UK.

Generally lots of cloud around, mist/fog possible overnight especially from midweek onwards next week.

High pressure likely to dominate towards Christmas…and it should turn colder once more.…

Winter Forecast 2021/22

Welcome to my winter 2021/22 weather forecast for Reading and the surrounding areas.

This is going to be quite a long post…I guess I should pour myself a drink…it is nearly Christmas after all.

So let’s start with some admin as usual.

Firstly thanks to Grace for the superb photograph, and first clue to my expectations of the weather this winter. A £20 donation has been made to Blood Cancer UK.

Secondly thanks to everyone who sends in photographs more regularly, comments, shares, etc – you ensure there is still a point in me doing these forecasts.

Finally a reminder that seasonal forecasting is experimental. Though my understanding and the understanding of the general meteorological community improves every year, some parts of this forecast will no doubt be wrong.

I’m actually really happy with my autumn forecast which was surprisingly close to reality – I’m particularly delighted to have picked out the signal for the cold spell at the end of November, 3 months ago. That said, background signals were strong.

Background signals

Which is a good time to start talking about background signals going into this winter.

Unsurprisingly the background signals are conflicting and create quite a lot of uncertainty – arguably more so than usual. Yet there are plenty that point to a colder than normal winter – alas, the seasonal models generated by super-computers point to a mild winter. Which is why you may have heard professional meteorologists arguing different cases.

Of course, nobody knows exactly how it will pan out – some professional and experienced forecasters are going to be wrong. Maybe I will too.

Anyway, those signals:

La Niña. We had a La Niña last winter, and we have another one this winter. La Niña is thought to increase the chance of north-westerly/northerly flows in November/December, and milder westerly flows in January/February – hence why I was pretty confident of the current cold spell some time out.

It does also depend somewhat on the strength, and also where the La Niña is centred – this is more of an east-based La Niña which I believe increases the cold signal for North-West Europe, and can also increase the chance of high pressure forming to our north/north-east – which would suggest cold easterly flows are possible.

Madden-Julian Oscillation. The pattern of thunderstorms over the Indian and Pacific Ocean has an effect on our weather and the pressure patterns. This is more of a medium-term forecasting tool, so really only any use for December. Currently it is in phase 6, and looks like going into phase 7, which should promote high pressure forming to our north/north-east.

However, it is argued that MJO signals are often over-ridden in La Niña winters, so I’m not sure how much notice to take.

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. These are stratospheric winds which switch from west to east, roughly every 22 months. It has recently switched to east which tends to encourage a weaker polar vortex and increases the chances of cold weather in Europe.

Said polar vortex is kind of disorganised in the troposphere (our level of atmosphere) at the moment, though has hints of organising. In the stratosphere (way above our atmosphere – the next level up) it is unusually strong. If the tropospheric and stratospheric polar vortexes couple, then you can wave goodbye to the chance of cold for weeks – sometimes even until the end of winter – and you’ll have weeks of mild, often wet and windy weather. There are hints this coupling may happen later this month, but is highly uncertain.

One thing that can break the coupling of the vortexes, is a sudden stratospheric warming event (SSW) which you’ll likely have heard me talk about in previous winters. These are a sudden warming of the stratosphere where the winds reverse fairly suddenly. What normally happens 2-4 weeks afterwards, is that high pressure blocking systems set up across the northern hemisphere and cold air floods down into the US, Europe and Asia – though not everywhere, as some places will be on the mild side of the blocking systems.

We had one in 2018 and ended up with the “Beast From The East” – a classic response from an SSW. However we had one last winter, and there was little effect on our weather – we had some cold weather that followed, but nothing unusual and arguably not because of the SSW. However, I do believe that the colder spring that we had was because of the SSW.

It is impossible to know if an SSW will happen more than a couple of weeks ahead. However, a pressure pattern is currently setting up over Europe/Asia that can be a trigger of one, say by late December/early January – so with the lag, that gives a slightly higher than normal chance of significant cold in February.

Finally, the solar cycle. I feel this is more debatable than most signals, but periods of low solar intensity like we are coming out of now, tend to encourage weaker polar vortexes and hence a greater chance of cold spells. And those winters where solar activity is just starting to increase, like this winter, are arguably most likely to experience this effect.

I guess you want a forecast now?

Hopefully you can at least you can see there are lots of conflicting signals, even if more of them do point to cold than normal. As such, overall I think winter will be slightly drier and colder than normal – though with some unsettled spells.


December looks like it will be a battle between an Atlantic Ocean finally waking up – and a blocking high stretching from Siberia to Scandinavia.

Generally it will be colder than normal, though low pressure systems will battle into the block, bringing wind and rain at times. There is a plausible chance that there could be some heavy snow as low pressure systems struggle as they come up against cold air to our east – but most precipitation should be rain.

After around mid-month, the jetstream should shift north, with high pressure building from the south – still some weather fronts but mostly light/patchy rain, overnight frosts and fog possible, though generally slightly milder than normal.

Then towards Christmas, that cold weather block to our east looks like it will migrate west, bringing colder air and a seasonal feel, with sharp frosts possible and cold, crisp sunny days. Snow showers would be somewhat possible though dry weather is expected to be dominant.

Overall I expect temperatures to be slightly below-average, rainfall slightly above-average and sunshine amounts around average.

Confidence level 75%. Main uncertainty is over the Christmas period – as it is certainly possible that we retain a milder southerly/south-easterly source and have mild, dry, probably cloudy/foggy weather instead.


January does look more unsettled with more influence from the polar vortex. Any early cold and dry weather should be shunted out of the way by a resurgent Atlantic, perhaps initially some snow as the milder air battles to displace the colder air, but generally becoming mildish and wet.

Occasionally the flow should be more north-westerly, allowing for colder weather, though nothing extreme, and brief easterly flows will also be possible – so though rain is the more likely outcome, there will be marginal opportunities for sleet/snow.

Also worth mentioning that the heaviest rain should often be to our north, so I’m not expecting the wettest month ever, but generally fairly unsettled with some short dry spells.

Overall I expect temperatures to be slightly above-average, rainfall somewhat above-average and sunshine amounts slightly below-average.

Confidence level 65%. Main uncertainty is the block to the east, and whether colder and drier weather could again spread west at times.


February currently looks likely to be a dry month with high pressure generally over the UK, or close to.

This does lead to some uncertainty on temperatures, arguably something milder/cloudier is slightly more likely early February, with colder than normal conditions most of the time after early February.

Often sunny though a risk of fog at times, regular overnight frosts likely which could be sharp, depending on the exact position of high pressure.

Rainfall will be limited, though occasionally the odd weather front will pass over bringing a bit of rain, perhaps sleet/snow, as the high pressure repositions itself.

Low confidence but there are suggestions of a very mild end to February being possible.

Overall I expect slightly below-average temperatures, below average rainfall and above average sunshine.

Confidence level 60%. Main uncertainty is the chance of an SSW, which would increase the chance of easterly flows and snow showers – I’ve assumed no SSW in the forecast as they are impossible to predict this far out.

Summary and Spring Thoughts

So, overall a slightly drier and colder than normal winter is expected, though with some notable unsettled spells too – especially in January.

Remember, it will be a shock if all this comes to pass, but hopefully it will be a good enough guide. Should an SSW occur, then there will be a good chance of a significant cold spell 2-4 weeks later, but it is impossible to know now.

Assuming no SSW (or an SSW that doesn’t favour cold in the UK), then early signs are that March could be warmer than normal.

However, don’t get too excited – early hints for April and May are for colder and somewhat wetter conditions than normal.

Well, I hope you enjoyed reading this forecast, I hope it is reasonably accurate and I hope you can enjoy the weather – whatever it throws at us.…

Thursday 2nd December 2021

Fairly cold and fairly unsettled.

Thanks to James for the photograph.

Clear skies to start tonight, with a frost – down to around -1’C. Cloud will thicken from the west from late evening onwards, with a band of showery rain arriving after say 1am. This may fall as sleet or snow for the first hour or so, so don’t be surprised if there is a temporary covering of snow in places if you are out in the early hours. But it will turn to rain.

Friday starts with patchy rain, it should be fairly light. Dry from around mid-morning but staying mostly cloudy – some bright spells at times. 9’C and feeling milder. An area of rain crossing France may just be far north enough to bring a little rain in the evening – uncertain but we are just about the farthest north it could get, a risk of mist/fog for a time following this – with this reducing towards dawn as further showers push across from the west. Lots going on! Around 7’C.

For Saturday we are back in the fairly cold north-westerly flow, with low pressure close to our north-east.

Some showers to start the day, windy too, but becoming mostly sunny from around mid-morning onwards, with a bit of cloud and only a small chance of a shower. 7’C. Probably clear skies at first, down to around 2’C though with a fairly strong wind making it feel colder. Tending to be more cloud as the night goes on – with some showers possible later in the night, which should be of rain…but I wouldn’t totally rule out some sleet/snow mixed in.

Sunday looks fairly cloudy, fairly cold and windy – with some showers. Possible it will stay dry as showers look more likely further east…that detail a tad uncertain. Around 5’C but feeling colder. Clear spells at first overnight, down to around 0’C with a frost in places – though cloud thickening as the night goes on, from the west.

Monday sees a band of rain spreading across from the west, most likely during the morning period though perhaps dragging a bit into the afternoon. A small chance of a little sleet/snow mixed in to start, but if so it will turn to rain. Brighter skies will follow. Around 7’C. Clear skies at first overnight, a frost possible, clouding over as the night goes on as the next weather front approaches. Down to around 0’C.

Tuesday looks like we will see a deep area of low pressure head our way from a much more energised jetstream than of late – and coming into a cold block to our east.

There is some uncertainty over this, but it does feel like a bit of a pattern-changing weather system. A band of rain will spread across, probably during the morning, some heavy rain possible, along with some strong winds. Briefly mild, 11’C.

Wednesday looks like the low pressure will be stuck over the UK, struggling to move. Showers or rain possible, and likely windy, though details will depend on the position of the low. Around 8’C.

Thursday probably still sees the low over us, though decaying, so some showers possible.

Friday onwards likely sees renewed vigour in the jetstream, which will continue to break down the cold block to our east and allow low pressure systems to move fully across the UK, bringing spells of heavy rain and strong winds.

This does look like it will last a week or so, bands of heavy rain, strong winds – I wouldn’t rule out a spell of gales/severe gales at some point with the likely conditions, though that is speculation.

Not especially mild either, occasionally so, but often on the chilly side, due to the jetstream being a little further south than normal. All precipitation should be rain, but there will be a small chance of transient snow if enough cold air can move south between weather systems.

Winter forecast will be out in the next couple of days. Have a good weekend.…

Winter Forecast Photograph Request

Time to do my winter forecast.

But it needs a photograph. Hi!

Usual requirements apply:

  1. It must feature winter weather. There are various types of winter weather that you could choose from – snow isn’t the only thing that happens in winter!
  2. It must feature the local area.
  3. The length of the photograph must be longer than the height.

Whoever’s photograph I choose will adorn the forecast and also be the cover photograph on Facebook for the next 3 months.

And I will donate £20 to a charity of their choice. But please make it something the internet won’t start arguments about – fluffy kittens good, charities involved in politics bad. That kind of thing.

Please add them to the Facebook post or e-mail them.

The usual forecast will be issued tonight, the winter forecast over the weekend – probably Saturday but depends on life and stuff.…