Monday 29th November 2021

A mild blip for Tuesday but more cold to come.

Thanks to Ru for the photograph.

Tonight starts cold, with a frost in places, but will become gradually milder and cloudier, with a little rain later in the night. Down to around 0’C at first but ticking up to around 6’C by dawn.

Tuesday looks mostly cloudy with a little patchy rain at times. Breezy and much milder at 11’C. A band of more organised showery rain spreading down from the north-west late evening/overnight, some heavy bursts mixed in. 11’C but cooler towards dawn.

Wednesday sees the wind swing to the north, so it becomes colder again.

Sunny spells in the morning, with a small chance of a shower. It looks like an area of cloud and more organised showers will spread down during the afternoon. 7’C but feeling colder in the northerly wind. Clear skies overnight with temperatures down to around 0’C and a frost – there is a chance of a small area of showers spreading down later in the night, which could fall as rain or snow – too much uncertainty at this stage.

Thursday will be sunny but cold. High cloud tending to build during the afternoon. 3’C in a northerly breeze. Frosty at first overnight, down to around -2’C. A band of showery rain will spread down from the north-west before dawn – it could easily start as sleet or snow, but almost certainly will turn to rain.

Friday morning sees rain clearing – followed by sunny spells. Around 7’C. Further rain spreading across overnight, around 8’C and windy.

A bit of uncertainty for Saturday, as it depends on how quickly the overnight low pressure can clear east – arguably the most likely outcome is that it struggles to clear and there is more showery rain on Saturday, and still fairly cold at around 6’C.

The more likely outcome for Sunday is that it is sunny but quite cold, say around 5’C. Fairly low confidence though – it really depends on how the low pressure from Friday night/early Saturday clears.

Very low confidence for next week. It looks like a battle is forming between much colder air to our east/north-east, and milder weather from the Atlantic.

My hunch is that the colder air kind of wins without it ever being too cold, but at least stops a total mild takeover. We’d see mostly slightly colder than normal weather, some rain and wind at times, with a small chance of snow instead.…

Friday 26th November 2021

Cold this weekend, then alternating next week between a bit milder and a bit colder. However, let’s talk wind…and snow (ish).

Thanks to Cathy for the frosty photograph.

So tonight is one of those delightful difficult forecasts where the answer is not sure. From late evening onwards, showery rain/sleet and snow will spread down from the north. Most likely you’ll see both rain and sleet/snow at various points (well, you will if you stay up all night) but less likely you’ll see any on the ground. However I wouldn’t rule out some patchy accumulations – especially if you have any elevation, say 2cm or so. Down to around 1’C in a strong northerly wind.

Saturday sees low pressure close to our east with a cold northerly flow.

Generally cloudy with showery rain – occasionally that turning to sleet and/or snow. Any snow unlikely to settle, but temporary accumulations if you get a particularly heavy shower would be possible, especially with elevation. Feeling cold in the strong northerly wind, 4’C at best. Showers clearing east in the evening, clear spells forming as the night goes on, frosty, down to around -2’C – still windy.

Sunday looks sunny but cold. Maybe a bit of cloud at times. 3’C – still a notable breeze. A small chance of a wintry shower in the evening/first part of the night, otherwise some clear spells, still breezy, down to around -2’C with a frost.

Some sunny spells on Monday morning though generally becoming cloudier. 4’C. Fairly cloudy overnight though milder air arriving, around 5’C.

For Tuesday we are in a more westerly/north-westerly flow – with some milder air.

Fairly cloudy, some limited sunny spells. Around 10’C and fairly windy. A band of showery rain spreading south-east in the evening/first part of the night, clear spells following. Down to around 5’C once the rain clears.

Wednesday sees the wind swing more northerly again. Sunny spells, a small chance of a shower, and a bit colder at around 8’C. Still windy. Clear skies overnight, down to around 0’C with a frost possible.

Thursday looks pretty cold again. Probably sunny, though uncertain, temperatures around 5’C at best. Frost possible overnight.

Thursday night into Friday looks like it will see rain spread across from the west – there might be a little sleet/snow at first before it turns into rain, but way too early to know. Sunny spells and milder weather following.

Uncertain for next weekend. Either a milder westerly flow or a colder north-westerly flow – some rain either way but probably not that much.

Probably turning unsettled and mostly mild for a week or so after that.

Enjoy your weekend – and any snow that you see falling!…

Tuesday 23rd November 2021

Becoming colder, becoming unsettled with a chance of…snow.

Yes, there is actually a chance of snow this weekend before winter even arrives. A chance, not a guarantee, and I’m sure it will be marginal all the way until the event.

Thanks to Phillipa for the photograph. I was hoping someone would send me something wintry to use.

Clear skies to start tonight, a frost possible at first though low cloud developing for much of the latter part of the night, perhaps fog in one or two places. Down to around 0’C, though ticking up a tad later in the night.

Wednesday sees the next plunge of colder northerly air arrive.

Generally dull and cloudy, any mist/fog will clear fairly swiftly though. The odd spot of drizzle possible, 8’C. Cloudy overnight, a little patchy rain – cloud clearing south around dawn, 4’C.

Thursday morning will be sunny. Some cloud in the afternoon, but sunny spells also. Feeling cold in the northerly wind, 6’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 0’C with a frost for most, remaining breezy.

Friday sees low pressure spread down from the north which is going to make things interesting.

A band of showery rain will spread south in the morning, followed by sunshine and heavy showers. It will be windy with temperatures around 7’C at best – not impossible that the heavy showers could have a wintry mix, say some soft hail/sleet but most likely everything falls as rain.

Overnight will see further showers spread south, and these could easily fall as sleet or snow, or a general mix of rain, sleet and snow. No guarantee that they will develop yet, or head this way, but more likely than not we’ll see some form of feature with showers. Could easily be rain, could easily be snow – impossible to state this far out as the conditions are marginal. Down to around 0’C, winds likely strong – a small chance of gales.

A covering of snow would not be too much of a surprise.

Saturday has plenty of uncertainty about it. Showery rain/sleet and/or snow will be probable at times, especially in the morning. Sunshine uncertain. Winds strong – perhaps with gales. Should there be any snow on the ground in the morning, I wouldn’t expect it to take too long to melt. Temperatures, 4’C at best but feeling much colder. Wintry showers fading overnight, down to around 0’C with a frost likely.

Sunday probably cold and dry with sunny spells. Around 4’C and winds easing. A sharp frost likely overnight, down to around -3’C.

Monday looks fairly cold with a little light rain.

Milder for Tuesday.

Probably cooler for the rest of next week with some rain and strong winds at times.

Next forecast will be on Friday.…

Thursday 18th November 2021

Colder weather is around the corner.

You have two more mild days left, but Sunday will be quite the change – and likely it will be colder than normal for the time of year for around 2 weeks – perhaps longer.

Thanks to Jonathan for the photograph.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy, the odd clear spell, no lower than 10’C.

Friday sees high pressure still over the south of the UK, though it is about to shift west.

A lot of cloud around, perhaps a bit of drizzle early on, but there will be some sunny breaks at times. Mild, 14’C. Cloudy overnight, perhaps a spot of drizzle at times, 10’C.

Saturday remains mild but the colder air will be starting to sink south. Generally cloudy, perhaps a spot of light rain or drizzle at times (more likely in the morning), perhaps some limited bright/sunny spells in the afternoon, but generally just more gloom. But the end of the gloom. A weak weather front sinks south overnight, bringing a bit of light, perhaps moderate rainfall – but still very small amounts of rain. Clear skies before dawn, down to around 5’C with the northerly breeze picking up.

For Sunday we are in a cold northerly wind, veering north-easterly.

Sunny in the morning, an area of cloud and showers will spread south during the afternoon. 7’C but feeling colder than that in a fresh northerly wind. Mostly clear skies overnight but too windy for a frost, down to around 4’C.

Sunny spells again for Monday. Some cloud at times and a small chance of a shower. 9’C but feeling colder in an easterly wind. A bit of uncertain on cloud amounts and also wind strength overnight, a chance of a frost but more likely too much cloud and/or wind.

Tuesday probably sees more cloud, though some sunny spells at times. Around 8’C. Lighter winds overnight so frost and/or fog possible – it wouldn’t surprise me to see freezing fog. Temperatures somewhere between -1’C and 3’C.

The more likely outcome for Wednesday is for it to be foggy – though not especially high confidence. Assuming so, it will be cold. 6’C if the fog clears, lower if not.

Thursday could be anything really – foggy, cloudy, sunny, wet, windy, windless – but likely it remains colder than normal, at around 6’C.

Friday and into next weekend looks like low pressure will head down from the north-west, but it’s too early to give day-to-day details.

Generally staying cool or cold, say somewhere between 4’C and 8’C, with some rain at some points, and it could be windy. Overnight frosts possible if winds are light and skies clear, but most nights will probably either have too much cloud or wind for a frost.

A small chance that some sleet/snow could be mixed in – there’s even an outside chance of heavy snow. But the more likely outcome for any areas of precipitation is that they fall as rain. It is still early in the season to be expecting snow – even in January/February conditions are often marginal at best down here.

So those of you who enjoy snow, keep your hopes in check and your expectations low. It can happen, but it requires fairly perfect set-ups at late November (ie November 2010) – and this ain’t perfect, but you could get lucky.

More likely this colder than normal north-westerly/northerly flow will continue into December, perhaps well into December. Some short mild spells likely, but more of the time it should be colder than normal, with the potential for something noteworthy.

Ahhh some interesting weather at last.…

Monday 15th November 2021

More mild nothingness. But remember that cold spell that I keep mentioning for late November? Keep reading…

Thanks to Pauline for the photograph.

A chilly night tonight, clear spells developing, with mist and fog developing fairly widely – not everywhere though. Down to around 3’C.

Tuesday starts with mist, fog or low cloud for many – though one or two spots may see some early sunshine. A weak weather front will cross during the day, bringing cloud and the odd spot of light rain. 11’C. Clear spells overnight, some patchy cloud, a little breezy too, 6’C.

Wednesday sees high pressure close to our south-west.

Sunny spells, though hazy at times with high/mid level cloud around quite often. 11’C in a fairly light westerly breeze. Clear spells and chilly overnight, down to around 5’C – though cloud spreading across from the west later, though likely rather high/mid level stuff.

Thursday likely sees quite a lot of cloud around, especially in the afternoon. Some bright spells with more high/mid level cloud at times – that more likely in the morning. Mild in a westerly breeze, 14’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, around 10’C.

Friday sees high pressure remain in charge over the south of the UK. Lots of cloud still, though some sunshine possible at times – not especially confident though. Mild, 13’C. Cloudy to start overnight, though some clear spells likely to develop as the night goes on, and becoming chilly, down to around 5’C.

By Saturday, high pressure will be shifting to the west, allowing a more north-westerly flow, and then a northerly flow to develop.

Sunny spells, some cloud – still mild as the colder air remains to our north at this stage, 12’C. Tending to cloud overnight later in the day, with a weak weather front bringing some patchy rain either during the evening or overnight. A frost possible by dawn – but that will depend on how quickly the weather front clears.

Sunday sees a cold northerly flow. Nothing unusual for the time of year – but a distinct change. Sunny spells, some fair weather cloud and temperatures around 8’C. It will feel colder than that in the northerly wind. Clear spells overnight, it might be too windy for a frost but either way it will be cold.

Next week starts with high pressure cloud to our west. Probably often sunny by day, but potentially some cloud at times. Temperatures around 8’C by day, and around 0’C overnight, though that depending on cloud/wind amounts – so overnight frosts very possible, but impossible to be sure on exact conditions this far out.

Two broad schools of thought as to where we go for the rest of next week and into next weekend (and probably beyond).

1 – High pressure stays close to the west or over the UK, most likely slightly/somewhat colder than normal but nothing unusual, overnight frosts likely, fog possible and staying dry.
2 – High pressure remains to our west, perhaps more north-west, and we get much colder air from the Arctic, perhaps as early as Thursday. Overnight significant frosts, cold northerly winds, daytime temperatures somewhere between 1’C and 5’C – some showers possible at times – and yes, they could be of sleet or snow.

Option 2 is currently more likely, say around 60/40 favourite.

I shall leave you on that cliff-hanger.…

Thursday 11th November 2021

No need to read the forecast, nothing going on, mostly mild, only a bit of rain – same old, really.

Thanks to Becky for the wonderful gloom.

Some clear spells tonight, though cloud at times, especially later. Down to around 7’C.

Friday sees a decaying low pressure head across the UK, from the west.

Cloudy to start with a fairly weak band of rain crossing – an hour or two of light-moderate rain. From mid/late morning, a few hours of sunny spells though a moderate chance of a shower also, then mostly cloudy from there, with a light shower possible. Quite windy and mild, 15’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, a few clear spells, perhaps a spot of rain, 10’C.

Saturday starts mostly cloudy. There will be some brightness/sunny spells at times, more likely in the middle portion of the day. 13’C in lighter winds. Mostly cloudy overnight in an easterly breeze, around 9’C.

Sunday starts cloudy. There should be some sunny breaks at times, more likely mid/late afternoon – but cloud will dominate. 12’C. Cloudy overnight – possibly foggy. Down to around 8’C.

Monday sees high pressure very much in control, stretching from well to the west of the Azores and well into Russia.

Starting cloudy or foggy – any fog will be slow to clear, and I’m not especially optimistic for any sunshine – but there may be some in the afternoon. Around 11’C. Probably cloudy overnight, a chance of fog, down to around 8’C.

Told you this forecast was boring.

Tuesday is probably cloudy. 10’C. Suggestions of a more north-westerly flow overnight, which should clear some of the cloud, though perhaps with the odd shower from a weak weather front. Down to around 5’C.

A north-westerly flow on Wednesday should bring some sunny spells – but also a fair amount of cloud. Around 11’C. Clear spells overnight, breezy, down to around 3’C.

Thursday, Friday and Saturday, more of the same, plenty of cloud, perhaps a little light rain from any weak weather fronts, a bit of sunshine at times, cooler on Thursday, milder on Friday & Saturday.

Sunday may see a transition to something cooler/colder from either the north-west or north – but early days.

There remains a good chance of cooler/colder than normal weather for the latter third of November and the first half of December. But it is squeaky bum time – this period been signalled as likely colder than normal for a couple of months, I’ve talked about it since the beginning of September – and now we are almost there.

Will it actually happen? Who knows. It’s just a good chance, not a definite.

I wish you a boring weekend.…

Tuesday 8th November 2021

Another boring week of weather ahead – mild, often cloudy, only a little rain. A taste of winter may not be far away though.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

Tonight will be cloudy, the odd spot of light rain/drizzle, and temperatures around 9’C.

Tuesday sees the Euro-slug of high pressure to our south keeping things dry.

Starting cloudy, perhaps a spot of light rain. There will be sunshine at times from mid/late morning onwards and it will be milder of late, 15’C, thanks to air mixed in from a totally decayed tropical storm system. A few clear spells at first but becoming cloudy as a weak weather front slowly sinks south-east overnight – a little patchy rain by dawn. Around 9’C.

Wednesday will be mostly cloudy with occasional bits of rain – patchy in nature and mostly light, but the odd heavyish burst possible in the morning. 12’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, the odd splash of light rain, but a few clear spells at times later in the night too, down to around 9’C.

A lot of cloud again on Thursday, the odd splash of light rain possible, but there will be some occasional sunshine too. Mild, 14’C. The cloud should clear overnight, or perhaps just thin and become more high-level – down to around 8’C and becoming breezy too.

Things become tricky from Friday onwards in terms of forecasting – low pressure will be moving towards the UK, but whether it will cross the UK, or skirt around the UK – cross Scotland then sink south over the North Sea on Saturday, is uncertain.

So Friday may see some showers or a short band of rain – or it may stay fairly sunny. It is around a 50/50 chance. Mild either way, around 13’C and quite windy.

Saturday then sees this low pressure close to our east (no matter which route it took), which means it will be mostly cloudy, a little sunshine at times, the odd scattered shower too. Around 11’C.

This low pressure then sinks further south into Europe and introduces an easterly on Sunday – with high pressure over Scandinavia, which is fairly unusual in November.

Sunday will be generally cloudy, the odd spot of light rain possible, and feeling cool in the easterly breeze, around 11’C.

Next week should start dry with high pressure in charge – uncertain at the moment whether it will be normal temperatures or something chilly – it will depend on the exact positioning of high pressure.

As I’ve mentioned many times, the latter half (well, third) of November looks more likely than normal to see northerly or north-westerly winds. This could happen by the end of next week or next weekend, but is too early to be sure. Far too early!

A small chance of something really notably cold, with wintry showers – but more likely just something quite cold, still perhaps a wintry flavour to any showers with some frost, but nothing too unusual for the time of year.…

Thursday 4th November 2021

Boring weather ahead. Becoming milder with little in the way of rain.

Thanks to Sue for the not boring photograph.

Clear skies tonight, though a bit of high cloud towards dawn. A slight frost for many, down to around 0’C.

High pressure will be the main influence of our weather over the next week or so, often centred to our south-west which will introduce a somewhat milder westerly (ish) flow from Friday.

Starting frosty for many, there will be hazy sunshine for much of the morning, some areas of thicker cloud at times in the afternoon, but some hazy sunshine at times also. 9’C. A few clear spells overnight, though generally quite cloudy, and tending to be increasingly so. Down to around 5’C.

Saturday looks mostly cloudy, though there will be some sunshine at times. Milder, 12’C and becoming windy later. A weak weather front will bring a bit of patchy rain in the evening and the first part of the night, the main cloud clears as the night goes on but with high cloud remaining. Down to around 7’C.

Sunday sees quite hazy skies, a lot of high/medium level cloud though there will also be hazy sunshine at times, particularly in the morning. 11’C in a north-westerly breeze. Some clear spells overnight, down to around 3’C…perhaps a bit colder and cold enough for a frost in places.

Monday has a bit of uncertainty over cloud amounts, but the more likely outcome sees a decent amount of sunshine and just some cloud. Around 11’C. Perhaps chilly to start the night but more cloud probable as the night goes on.

Tuesday and Wednesday look a bit milder as an ex-tropical storm brings some mildness, say around 15’C is possible. Uncertain on weather conditions, probably quite cloudy, a bit of rain at some points but just a bit, perhaps a bit of sunshine.

Thursday and Friday should see high pressure in charge. Too early to know whether there will be sunny days with possible overnight frost/fog, or more in the way of cloud. Certainly there is the potential for it to be a cloudy affair to start. Likely on the mild side.

High pressure probably just about hanging on for next weekend though there could easily be a weak weather front at some point bringing some patchy rain – otherwise a mixture of cloud, sunny spells and fairly mild temperatures.

Have a good weekend.…

Monday 1st November 2021

A chilly week ahead but generally fairly pleasant.

The clocks going back means that the weather models are out an hour earlier – which makes it much easier me! There is an advantage to that extra darkness…

Thanks to Alison for the photograph.

Clear spells tonight, some cloud at times, down to around 3’C – a small chance of a little fog in more sheltered spots.

Tuesday sees sunny spells, some fair weather cloud and a small chance of catching a brief shower, say 20% chance. 11’C in a light breeze. Mostly clear skies overnight, a bit of cloud at times, fog likely forming in a few places by dawn – but more places staying fog-less. Down to around 1’C – a frost possible in places, especially sheltered spots.

Wednesday sees a colder, more northerly flow set in – something I expect to see more of in the second half of November.

Sunny spells in the morning, once any fog has cleared. More cloud than sun in the afternoon, as an area of cloud and scattered showers sinks south – around a 40% chance of a shower or two. Feeling chilly in the northerly breeze, 9’C. Some cloud at first overnight, becoming clear as the night goes on – down to around 3’C though that is rather approximate. Quite windy too.

Thursday will be sunny, some cloud bubbling up but always more sunshine than cloud. Still in a chilly northerly flow, 9’C at best. Some clear spells overnight though also a lot of high cloud developing which should stop a frost, down to around 2’C.

Quite a lot of cloud around on Friday, but there will be some brightness at times – the cloud often high/mid level so not especially dull or anything. A more westerly flow with temperatures scraping to 11’C – and not feeling as chilly as the previous two days. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 6’C.

Saturday sees high pressure just about in charge – some sunshine, some cloud, breezy and temperatures around 13’C. A fairly weak weather front will spread down in the evening/overnight, bringing some patchy rain. Around 7’C.

Sunday will be generally fine, again some cloud, some sunshine, and around 12’C.

Next week likely starts dry, or mostly so, with temperatures around normal or slightly above – though nights on the chilly side. Towards the end of next week, something cooler with some showers is the more likely outcome – but still early days.

The second half of November does look colder than normal, with high pressure likely to be to our west, and northerly flows more likely than normal – with some showers. I wouldn’t rule out some wintriness either, particularly late November, but we’ll see. Cold winds and/or frost likely features also.

Though worth noting, a small chance of something more substantially colder/wintry than normal developing.…