Thursday 14th October 2021

A few more quiet days, then unsettled next week.

Thanks to Kay for the photograph.

Tonight starts with broken cloud, thicker cloud after midnight as a very weak weather front sinks south. Fairly mild at around 12’C.

Friday sees high pressure remain in control, though cooler air will have sunk south behind the weak weather front.

A cloudy start, perhaps a splash of light rain in the morning, but by around lunchtime some sunny spells will develop. Generally fine in the afternoon – some cloud at times, some sun at times. Scraping 14’C. Some clear spells overnight, but cloudy at times too – perhaps a light shower – generally more cloud as the night goes on. Down to around 6’C.

Saturday looks pretty cloudy, though alternating between thicker cloud and thinner high-based cloud – the latter allowing some hazy sunshine at times. A tad warmer, 16’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, perhaps a bit of patchy light rain later in the night as a weak weather front pushes in from the west, around 11’C.

Sunday looks fairly cloudy as the overnight weak weather front continues to decay. There may be some occasional light rain, there should be some occasional sunshine. 17’C in a warmish south-westerly breeze – warmish for mid-October anyway. Mostly cloudy overnight, around 11’C.

Monday looks mostly cloudy, again, though with the benefit of some much warmer upper air than normal.

Perhaps some hazy sunshine at times in the morning, perhaps some showery bits of rain in the afternoon as weather fronts edge ever closer – details a bit hazy on arrival times of weather fronts. 17’C is feasible, maybe a shade more. Overnight probably seeing some showery rain, temperatures very mild at around 16’C and quite windy too.

A bit of uncertainty on details for Tuesday, likely to see some rain at some point but also there is a chance of some hazy sunshine at times. The unusually warm upper air, means 21’C is possible with sunshine, closer to 19’C if it remains cloudy – likely a bit humid also, and quite windy too. Heavy rain or heavy showers overnight, timing uncertain, windy and we should hang onto the relative warmth, 16’C.

On Wednesday we push away the warmth – it may hang on until later in the day, it may clear early in the day. Sunshine and showers will be the main theme either way, some heavy, hail possible, a small chance of thunder – with strong winds. Temperatures will depend on how long the warmth hangs on for, somewhere between 13’C and 18’C. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 10’C.

Thursday should remain showery, some sunshine, plenty of showers which could easily be heavy, squally with hail and thunder. Windy, around 15’C.

Friday is not certain, but it is looking more likely that we’ll see cooler (can I say “colder” yet?) air spread down from the north. More in the way of sunshine and fewer showers. Temperatures around 10’C. I hope my new coat arrives by then. Chilly overnight – perhaps just a little too early for a frost, but not far away – especially in more sheltered areas.

Weekend is uncertain – but if the northerly plunge happened, then cool but dry with some sunshine would be the most likely outcome.

Probably fairly mixed for the week after and to the end of October, though with a trend to drier conditions. Most likely becoming mild again.

November still looks drier than normal, but the early third or so may be mild (instead of previous expectations of colder than normal) – it will still depend on exact positioning of high pressure as it could end up in a cold, frosty, foggy kind of scenario.…

Monday 11th October 2021

High pressure in control again this week – mostly dry, sometimes sunny with varying temperatures.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

Tonight sees clear spells, some cloud and a little chilly, down to around 7’C.

Tuesday sees high pressure centred just to the west of Ireland, with a light northerly flow for us.

Sunny spells in the morning, much cloudier from around late morning, a little patchy rain around but not amounting to much – if anything. 14’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 10’C.

Wednesday sees the high nudge east a bit, cutting off the cooler northerly flow. Some sunny spells but a lot of cloud around. 16’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, a few clear spells, down to around 9’C.

Thursday remains settled. Some cloudy spells, but some sunny spells too. Likely more cloud than sunshine overall, and reaching around 17’C. Cloudy overnight, a weak weather front spreading down from the north will bring a little patchy rain towards/around dawn, 11’C.

Friday starts cloudy, perhaps a spot of light rain. There will be decent sunny spells once this weak weather front clear south, variable amounts of cloud and a bit cooler once more, 14’C. Probably quite cloudy overnight, though cloud extent uncertain. Down to around 8’C, give or take.

Saturday remains settled. Some sunny spells, some cloudy spells, and temperatures around 15’C. Probably quite cloudy overnight, around 9’C, give or take.

For Sunday we will probably have a milder south-westerly flow. Again, some sunshine, some cloud, temperatures around 17’C.

Monday looks rather cloudy with a strengthening south-westerly wind, as low pressure edges closer from the west. Staying warmish.

A chance to more unsettled conditions looks like either Monday night or Tuesday, with an area of rain spreading east. Perhaps as early as Monday day…a bit too early to be sure on timing.

Likely staying unsettled next week, windy with rain/showers at times. And generally changeable for the last third of October – some rain/showers on some days – but some fine days too. Quite mixed – and temperatures variable too.…

Thursday 7th October 2021

High pressure remains in control – warm for a few days, then cooler, then (probably) warmer again.

Some cloud, some fog – but some sunshine too.

Thanks to Mark for the photograph.

Variable cloud to start tonight but low cloud will form, with mist and fog patches from the early hours especially in more rural areas. Mild, 14’C.

For Friday we are in this much warmer flow than normal – thanks to ex-hurricane Sam in the Atlantic.

The morning starts with mist and fog in places, low cloud otherwise, a spot of drizzle in places. There will be some sunny breaks in the afternoon but it will remain rather cloudy. Reaching 19’C, maybe 20’C if you get lucky with enough sunshine. Clear spells overnight, mist/fog forming in some places before dawn, but not as widespread as the night before. Down to around 8’C.

Saturday starts with mist/fog in places, sunny spells otherwise. Sunny spells for all once early mist/fog clears but cloud will bubble up – likely slightly more cloud than sunshine overall, around 18’C. A very weak weather front will spread south-east overnight, bringing mostly cloud (some clear spells at first) and perhaps a splash of light rain. Down to around 10’C.

Sunday morning will be mostly cloudy as we wait for the pointless weather front to clear. The afternoon will be mostly sunny, though a bit of cloud at times. Around 18’C, maybe a tad less. Quite a lot of high level cloud overnight, down to around 7’C.

By Monday our area of high pressure nudges west a tad, enough to allow a somewhat cooler northerly flow.

Generally quite cloudy, a bit of sunshine at times and around 15’C. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 8’C.

Tuesday has a teeny bit of uncertainty over the positioning of the high pressure system. More likely quite a bit of cloud, but with some sunny spells and around 14’C. Possible that it may be mostly cloudy, a small chance of a shower – and possible that it may be a bit notably cooler than 14’C too. Uncertain on overnight cloud amounts and hence temperatures – it could be clear and around 5’C or cloudy and around 10’C.

By Wednesday our high pressure system should nudge back east and cut off the cooler air. Assuming so, there will be sunny spells, some cloud, temperatures around 16’C.

Thursday broadly similar, sunny spells, some cloud, temperatures around 17’C.

Friday and into next weekend most likely stay dry with high pressure in control – and most likely stay warmish with sunny spells.

There is a small chance instead of a cooler northerly flow – but most likely that will be well to our east.

Perhaps more changeable the next week – but only very slight and conflicting signals.

Have a good weekend.…

Monday 4th October 2021

One more unsettled day, before it becomes dry and warmer – thanks to Hurricane Sam.

No photograph because Facebook is down so I cannot access them. I wonder if more of you will make it to this website than normal?!

This evening becomes cloudy with heavy rain arriving around 11pm, give or take, with around 4-6 hours of heavy and at times very heavy rain. Quite windy for a time with temperatures around 11’C.

Tuesday sees low pressure in control.

The bulk of the rain will be further north, but it will be fairly cloudy with a few showers – some sunny spells at times too. Cool and windy, around 14’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, perhaps a little patchy rain late evening as the weather front to our north edges south-east, but more likely we’ll stay dry. Becoming clear later overnight, staying windy, around 8’C.

Wednesday sees high pressure nudge in from the south-west. Long spells of sunshine all day, a bit of fair weather cloud floating around and temperatures around 16’C. Uncertainty on cloud amounts overnight, more likely clear and chilly, down to around 6’C – but a risk of some low cloud forming and something milder.

Thursday sees the warmer air arrive, though there will be areas of low cloud at times – so a mixture of sunny spells and cloudy spells, probably more cloud than sunshine overall. Around 19’C in a south-westerly breeze. Some clear spells possible at first overnight, though low cloud will develop, and possibly fog by dawn. Somewhere around 12’C.

For Friday we will remain in the warm flow, thanks to Hurricane Sam (ex-hurricane at this point), which will be south-west of Iceland.

It will take a while for low cloud to break up – and it may not do. I’m hopeful for some sunshine in the afternoon and volumes will determine maximum temperatures – somewhere between 17’C and 20’C. Low cloud likely forming overnight, fog possible by dawn, around 12’C.

Similarly for Saturday, possibly foggy to start, likely cloudy. It will again take some time to break up, it may not do, but I’m hopeful for some sunny spells and temperatures around 18’C. Low cloud and fog may form overnight once more.

A bit more hopeful for sunshine on Sunday as high pressure manoeuvres slightly further west. Still probably rather cloudy in the morning, but as the day goes on it should become sunnier, with temperatures around 19’C. Likely clearer skies overnight and chilly, say 8’C.

Monday probably fairly sunny, Tuesday probably fairly cloudy – a more northerly flow setting in so becoming notably cooler by Tuesday.

High pressure is likely to stay in charge for much of October, at least until after mid-month with it being mostly dry, sometimes sunny though sometimes cloudy, overnight fog possible – more likely warmer (well…milder) than normal but that will depend on exact positioning of high pressure.

In the latter third of October, some more showers/bands of rain likely, but still more dry days than not.

I’m still unusually confident for both November and December to be colder and drier than normal.…