Friday 29th October 2021

And low pressure is back in charge for the next week, which means rain and showers at times, a bit of wind, mild at first but becoming much cooler.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

Might be a tiny bit rushed as I’m trying to squeeze it in before I start work, but let’s see how I get on.

Early cloud and rain will clear to sunny spells and scattered heavy showers this morning, the showers fading as the afternoon goes on and sunshine amounts increasing – mostly sunny from around mid-afternoon. Windy and mild, 14’C though a tad cooler in the afternoon. Clear skies at first overnight, though cloud slowly thickening after midnight with rain arriving shortly before dawn, 9’C.

For Saturday we have this large area of low pressure in charge, centred towards Iceland, with smaller low pressure areas developing around the circulation.

The morning sees a band of showery rain crossing, some heavy, clearing before lunchtime. Sunny spells after, a small chance of a shower, breezy and 13’C. Clear spells overnight at first, down to around 6’C – cloud thickening as the night goes on.

Sunday morning sees a band of rain spread west to east, roughly between 6am and midday, with around 4-5 hours of rain, some heavy/very heavy. Timing a bit uncertain – perhaps the window will be a bit later, say 9am to 3pm, or even a bit earlier. Sunny spells following. Some fairly strong winds during the rain, breezy otherwise. 13’C in the rain, a touch cooler after in the sunny spells. An outside chance of a shower in the evening/overnight but mostly clear spells, a bit of cloud, breezy and down to 6’C.

Low pressure still in charge on Monday, but it will actually be fine due to a lack of convection at this time of the year, and a lack of troughs or other features. So, sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud, a small chance of a stray shower, breezy and around 12’C. Clear spells at least at first overnight, down to around 3’C – a chance of an area of showers moving up from the south in the second half of the night, but that is uncertain at this stage.

Tuesday isn’t certain, but the more likely outcome is an area of rain/showery rain bringing a fairly wet day – or at least a good portion of the day. Possible instead that this stays to our south and we end up with a fine day, but rain is the more likely outcome by quite a way – say 80/20. Around 10’C, give or take.

By Wednesday we will be in a more northerly flow.

Sunny spells, fair weather cloud, a small chance of a shower and feeling chilly in the northerly breeze, 10’C. Chilly overnight – though uncertain on cloud amounts and hence whether there is a chance of a frost.

Thursday remains chilly, temperatures around 9’C. Sunshine most likely, though a bit of uncertain over any decaying weather fronts which could bring a bit of cloud and light rain. Chilly overnight, down to around 3’C but it could easily be colder – a frost possible.

Friday likely sees a bit more of a westerly flow return, cutting off the chilly northerly. Some cloud, some sunshine, around 10’C.

This westerly flow likely bringing a return to more changeable conditions, with some rain at some point next weekend – Saturday would seem more likely – likely a bit milder, temporarily.

Changeable conditions are likely to prevail though nothing especially wet (at least nothing you wouldn’t expect in November) – and north-westerly or even northerly flows are more likely than normal so temperatures will generally be a bit colder than normal for the time of year too.

And finished in time to start work. Have a good weekend.…

Monday 25th October 2021

A mild and dry few days, changeable from Friday.

Thanks to Nicola for the photograph.

Tonight sees clear spells at first, high cloud pushing in from the west as the night goes on, 8’C.

For Tuesday we are in a mild south-westerly flow, with high pressure fairly close to our south.

It starts bright with some sunny spells, hazy at times. Cloud generally thicker from mid-morning through to early afternoon, a very small chance of a shower, more in the way of sunny spells as the afternoon progresses. 16’C, maybe 17’C – breezy too. Some clear spells overnight though lots of cloud, particularly after midnight. Mild, 14’C.

Wednesday morning looks mostly cloudy, a few sunny breaks. Some sunny spells at times in the afternoon though likely plenty of cloud still. 17’C and breezy. Cloud thinning overnight, 12’C.

Thursday starts sunny. Some cloud as the afternoon goes on as a weather front continues it’s struggle to move east – but really quite a pleasant day. The last warmish day until 2022 perhaps? Reaching around 16’C and still breezy. Cloud tending to thicken overnight as the weather front to our west edges closer, 14’C.

Friday should see the weather front push east, so we’d be looking at showery rain and temperatures around 15’C. There is a small chance that it may stay to our west allowing some more warmish hazy sunshine but only around a 15% chance. Showers possible overnight, down to around 9’C.

Saturday and Sunday see low pressure in charge, with smaller cut-off lows developing and circulating around a larger low pressure trough.

There will be rain and/or showers at some point during the weekend, though timing uncertain at the moment. A chance of a spell of strong winds associated with any rain, but again will all depend on the exact phasing of these cut-off lows. Feeling cooler at around 13’C.

Next week likely starts colder with a northerly ish flow – temperatures closer to 10’C. Uncertain as to whether it will be dry, or whether there will be more rain.

Later in the week (perhaps not until next weekend), the more likely outcome is that we return to a more changeable westerly flow, a bit milder, not much in the way of rain but some, and more dry days than otherwise.

And then in the second half of November, there remain signs of high pressure building close to our west, which means a colder flow more likely – frosts becoming more likely. I wouldn’t even rule out some wintriness mixed into any showers.

December still has a good chance of being colder and drier than normal. January currently looks milder, but wet and windy.

Not sure when the next forecast will be as I’m out on Thursday night – perhaps Friday morning.…

Thursday 21st October 2021

A bit of a mish-mash of weather over the next week or so, though not much rain around – and becoming warmer again next week.

Thanks to Julie for the photograph. That’s my annual sunrise photograph quota done 😉

Mostly clear skies tonight, too much of a breeze for a frost (maybe except the most very rural spots), down to around 4’C.

Friday sees high pressure nudging in from the south-west.

A sunny but chilly start, some cloud will bubble up from around mid/late morning, though there will still be sunny spells. A 20% chance of catching a non-heavy shower. 12’C in a light breeze. Reasonably clear skies overnight, some fog patches forming by dawn but hit and miss, and down to around 3’C. A touch of frost in more sheltered spots.

Saturday starts chilly, fog in some places but that will lift quickly, sunny in other places. The morning looks mostly fine with some sunshine, albeit hazy at times. From around lunchtime there it will become pretty cloudy, perhaps a spot of light rain, but also the odd glimpse of sunshine. 13’C in a south-westerly breeze. Cloudy and breezy overnight as a weakening weather front tries to push in, down to around 8’C.

Sunday stays mostly cloudy as the aforementioned weather front continues its slow and painful crawl east. The cloud should break up at times to give a bit of sunshine, though eventually by late afternoon/evening there will be a bit of patchy rain, perhaps briefly heavy. Feeling milder in a southerly breeze, 14’C. Becoming clear overnight as the weather front pushes east, 10’C.

Monday sees sunny spells, fair weather cloudy and a scattering of showers, which could be quite heavy – around a 50% chance of catching one or two. 15’C in a south-westerly breeze. Clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C, breezy.

Tuesday likely starts quite bright with some hazy sunshine. Cloud tending to thicken as the day goes on and the wind will pick up. Feeling a bit warmer, 16’C ish. Probably staying dry but perhaps a little light rain later. Cloudy and very mild overnight, the odd spot of light rain possible, 15’C.

Things becoming more uncertain by Wednesday, but weather fronts should be to our north and the question will be whether it is mostly cloudy or if there can be some sunshine. The warmer air making itself felt and temperatures should be around 18’C.

For Thursday, I am more hopeful for sunshine and we will still be in the warmer air, around 17’C.

Friday and into next weekend is uncertain. There is a fair chance that the warmer and sunny conditions hang on – but also a fair chance that we end up stuck under a slow-moving weather front with quite a lot of rain.…

Monday 18th October 2021

An uber-changeable week ahead, warm then cold, windy at times, some heavy rain at times – and perhaps even a bit of that rare beast – sunshine.

Thanks to Richie for the photograph.

This evening sees some showery rain clearing east not long after you’ve read this, cloudy but warm for the rest of the night in a south-westerly wind, 16’C.

We start Tuesday with some unusually warm upper air from the south-westerly flow.

Cloudy to start, perhaps a bit of light rain. We should get some sunshine either side of lunchtime, and in the notably warm air we should reach 19’C – perhaps 20’C in fairly strong winds. Becoming cloudy again during the afternoon with some showery rain by around early evening. Showery rain, some heavy, continuing through the evening and into the first part of the night – drier for a short spell though a chance of a heavy shower by dawn, no lower than 15’C, windy for most of the night too.

Wednesday sees bands of heavy showers cross, perhaps very heavy with a rumble of thunder. Less showers in the afternoon, but still some scattered heavy showers around – some sunny spells too. Still in the warmer air, 17’C and quite windy at times. A spell of heavy rain looks like it will spread north in the evening and into the first part of the night – not yet guaranteed it will get this far north, but around an 85% chance. Cooler air spreading down from the north once the rain clears, down to around 8’C by dawn.

Thursday sees colder air spread down from the north.

It will be mostly sunny, a bit of fair weather cloud and a very small chance of a stray lightish shower. However it will feel pretty cold in the northerly wind – our first taste of something “cold” this autumn so far, with temperatures struggling to 11’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, too windy for a frost but down to around 5’C.

Friday is another mostly fine day. Some sunny spells, more in the way of cloud than Thursday, a small chance of a stray shower but most places staying dry – light winds and temperatures around 12’C. Some clear spells and some cloudy spells overnight, down to around 6’C.

Saturday looks mostly cloudy – perhaps some brightness at times in the morning. Around 14’C. A band of rain crossing overnight – though timing uncertain and may not arrive until Sunday morning. Rainfall amounts fairly low.

Sunday…well it depends on the timing of the weather front on Saturday night and how quickly it clears. If the weather front clear quickly, then sunshine and showers in a westerly breeze, and around 16’C. If it hangs around, then cloudy with bits and pieces of rain, and 14’C.

Next week looks fairly changeable and westerly-driven, though probably dry to start the week.…

Thursday 14th October 2021

A few more quiet days, then unsettled next week.

Thanks to Kay for the photograph.

Tonight starts with broken cloud, thicker cloud after midnight as a very weak weather front sinks south. Fairly mild at around 12’C.

Friday sees high pressure remain in control, though cooler air will have sunk south behind the weak weather front.

A cloudy start, perhaps a splash of light rain in the morning, but by around lunchtime some sunny spells will develop. Generally fine in the afternoon – some cloud at times, some sun at times. Scraping 14’C. Some clear spells overnight, but cloudy at times too – perhaps a light shower – generally more cloud as the night goes on. Down to around 6’C.

Saturday looks pretty cloudy, though alternating between thicker cloud and thinner high-based cloud – the latter allowing some hazy sunshine at times. A tad warmer, 16’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, perhaps a bit of patchy light rain later in the night as a weak weather front pushes in from the west, around 11’C.

Sunday looks fairly cloudy as the overnight weak weather front continues to decay. There may be some occasional light rain, there should be some occasional sunshine. 17’C in a warmish south-westerly breeze – warmish for mid-October anyway. Mostly cloudy overnight, around 11’C.

Monday looks mostly cloudy, again, though with the benefit of some much warmer upper air than normal.

Perhaps some hazy sunshine at times in the morning, perhaps some showery bits of rain in the afternoon as weather fronts edge ever closer – details a bit hazy on arrival times of weather fronts. 17’C is feasible, maybe a shade more. Overnight probably seeing some showery rain, temperatures very mild at around 16’C and quite windy too.

A bit of uncertainty on details for Tuesday, likely to see some rain at some point but also there is a chance of some hazy sunshine at times. The unusually warm upper air, means 21’C is possible with sunshine, closer to 19’C if it remains cloudy – likely a bit humid also, and quite windy too. Heavy rain or heavy showers overnight, timing uncertain, windy and we should hang onto the relative warmth, 16’C.

On Wednesday we push away the warmth – it may hang on until later in the day, it may clear early in the day. Sunshine and showers will be the main theme either way, some heavy, hail possible, a small chance of thunder – with strong winds. Temperatures will depend on how long the warmth hangs on for, somewhere between 13’C and 18’C. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 10’C.

Thursday should remain showery, some sunshine, plenty of showers which could easily be heavy, squally with hail and thunder. Windy, around 15’C.

Friday is not certain, but it is looking more likely that we’ll see cooler (can I say “colder” yet?) air spread down from the north. More in the way of sunshine and fewer showers. Temperatures around 10’C. I hope my new coat arrives by then. Chilly overnight – perhaps just a little too early for a frost, but not far away – especially in more sheltered areas.

Weekend is uncertain – but if the northerly plunge happened, then cool but dry with some sunshine would be the most likely outcome.

Probably fairly mixed for the week after and to the end of October, though with a trend to drier conditions. Most likely becoming mild again.

November still looks drier than normal, but the early third or so may be mild (instead of previous expectations of colder than normal) – it will still depend on exact positioning of high pressure as it could end up in a cold, frosty, foggy kind of scenario.…

Monday 11th October 2021

High pressure in control again this week – mostly dry, sometimes sunny with varying temperatures.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

Tonight sees clear spells, some cloud and a little chilly, down to around 7’C.

Tuesday sees high pressure centred just to the west of Ireland, with a light northerly flow for us.

Sunny spells in the morning, much cloudier from around late morning, a little patchy rain around but not amounting to much – if anything. 14’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 10’C.

Wednesday sees the high nudge east a bit, cutting off the cooler northerly flow. Some sunny spells but a lot of cloud around. 16’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, a few clear spells, down to around 9’C.

Thursday remains settled. Some cloudy spells, but some sunny spells too. Likely more cloud than sunshine overall, and reaching around 17’C. Cloudy overnight, a weak weather front spreading down from the north will bring a little patchy rain towards/around dawn, 11’C.

Friday starts cloudy, perhaps a spot of light rain. There will be decent sunny spells once this weak weather front clear south, variable amounts of cloud and a bit cooler once more, 14’C. Probably quite cloudy overnight, though cloud extent uncertain. Down to around 8’C, give or take.

Saturday remains settled. Some sunny spells, some cloudy spells, and temperatures around 15’C. Probably quite cloudy overnight, around 9’C, give or take.

For Sunday we will probably have a milder south-westerly flow. Again, some sunshine, some cloud, temperatures around 17’C.

Monday looks rather cloudy with a strengthening south-westerly wind, as low pressure edges closer from the west. Staying warmish.

A chance to more unsettled conditions looks like either Monday night or Tuesday, with an area of rain spreading east. Perhaps as early as Monday day…a bit too early to be sure on timing.

Likely staying unsettled next week, windy with rain/showers at times. And generally changeable for the last third of October – some rain/showers on some days – but some fine days too. Quite mixed – and temperatures variable too.…

Thursday 7th October 2021

High pressure remains in control – warm for a few days, then cooler, then (probably) warmer again.

Some cloud, some fog – but some sunshine too.

Thanks to Mark for the photograph.

Variable cloud to start tonight but low cloud will form, with mist and fog patches from the early hours especially in more rural areas. Mild, 14’C.

For Friday we are in this much warmer flow than normal – thanks to ex-hurricane Sam in the Atlantic.

The morning starts with mist and fog in places, low cloud otherwise, a spot of drizzle in places. There will be some sunny breaks in the afternoon but it will remain rather cloudy. Reaching 19’C, maybe 20’C if you get lucky with enough sunshine. Clear spells overnight, mist/fog forming in some places before dawn, but not as widespread as the night before. Down to around 8’C.

Saturday starts with mist/fog in places, sunny spells otherwise. Sunny spells for all once early mist/fog clears but cloud will bubble up – likely slightly more cloud than sunshine overall, around 18’C. A very weak weather front will spread south-east overnight, bringing mostly cloud (some clear spells at first) and perhaps a splash of light rain. Down to around 10’C.

Sunday morning will be mostly cloudy as we wait for the pointless weather front to clear. The afternoon will be mostly sunny, though a bit of cloud at times. Around 18’C, maybe a tad less. Quite a lot of high level cloud overnight, down to around 7’C.

By Monday our area of high pressure nudges west a tad, enough to allow a somewhat cooler northerly flow.

Generally quite cloudy, a bit of sunshine at times and around 15’C. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 8’C.

Tuesday has a teeny bit of uncertainty over the positioning of the high pressure system. More likely quite a bit of cloud, but with some sunny spells and around 14’C. Possible that it may be mostly cloudy, a small chance of a shower – and possible that it may be a bit notably cooler than 14’C too. Uncertain on overnight cloud amounts and hence temperatures – it could be clear and around 5’C or cloudy and around 10’C.

By Wednesday our high pressure system should nudge back east and cut off the cooler air. Assuming so, there will be sunny spells, some cloud, temperatures around 16’C.

Thursday broadly similar, sunny spells, some cloud, temperatures around 17’C.

Friday and into next weekend most likely stay dry with high pressure in control – and most likely stay warmish with sunny spells.

There is a small chance instead of a cooler northerly flow – but most likely that will be well to our east.

Perhaps more changeable the next week – but only very slight and conflicting signals.

Have a good weekend.…

Monday 4th October 2021

One more unsettled day, before it becomes dry and warmer – thanks to Hurricane Sam.

No photograph because Facebook is down so I cannot access them. I wonder if more of you will make it to this website than normal?!

This evening becomes cloudy with heavy rain arriving around 11pm, give or take, with around 4-6 hours of heavy and at times very heavy rain. Quite windy for a time with temperatures around 11’C.

Tuesday sees low pressure in control.

The bulk of the rain will be further north, but it will be fairly cloudy with a few showers – some sunny spells at times too. Cool and windy, around 14’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, perhaps a little patchy rain late evening as the weather front to our north edges south-east, but more likely we’ll stay dry. Becoming clear later overnight, staying windy, around 8’C.

Wednesday sees high pressure nudge in from the south-west. Long spells of sunshine all day, a bit of fair weather cloud floating around and temperatures around 16’C. Uncertainty on cloud amounts overnight, more likely clear and chilly, down to around 6’C – but a risk of some low cloud forming and something milder.

Thursday sees the warmer air arrive, though there will be areas of low cloud at times – so a mixture of sunny spells and cloudy spells, probably more cloud than sunshine overall. Around 19’C in a south-westerly breeze. Some clear spells possible at first overnight, though low cloud will develop, and possibly fog by dawn. Somewhere around 12’C.

For Friday we will remain in the warm flow, thanks to Hurricane Sam (ex-hurricane at this point), which will be south-west of Iceland.

It will take a while for low cloud to break up – and it may not do. I’m hopeful for some sunshine in the afternoon and volumes will determine maximum temperatures – somewhere between 17’C and 20’C. Low cloud likely forming overnight, fog possible by dawn, around 12’C.

Similarly for Saturday, possibly foggy to start, likely cloudy. It will again take some time to break up, it may not do, but I’m hopeful for some sunny spells and temperatures around 18’C. Low cloud and fog may form overnight once more.

A bit more hopeful for sunshine on Sunday as high pressure manoeuvres slightly further west. Still probably rather cloudy in the morning, but as the day goes on it should become sunnier, with temperatures around 19’C. Likely clearer skies overnight and chilly, say 8’C.

Monday probably fairly sunny, Tuesday probably fairly cloudy – a more northerly flow setting in so becoming notably cooler by Tuesday.

High pressure is likely to stay in charge for much of October, at least until after mid-month with it being mostly dry, sometimes sunny though sometimes cloudy, overnight fog possible – more likely warmer (well…milder) than normal but that will depend on exact positioning of high pressure.

In the latter third of October, some more showers/bands of rain likely, but still more dry days than not.

I’m still unusually confident for both November and December to be colder and drier than normal.…