Thursday 29th July 2021

Some rain, some wind, some showers, some sunshine. It could be any month really.

Thanks to Chris for the photograph – a rare industrial background.

Later this evening and overnight will see bands of showery rain cross from the west, possibly heavy, breezy too and down to around 14’C.

Friday sees a cut-off low crossing the south of England, that the Met Office have named Storm Evert, though it won’t be anything disruptive for us.

Sunshine and heavy showers will be the order – though sunshine fairly limited and showers very frequent – perhaps merging into a longer spell of heavy rain roughly around lunchtime for a couple of hours. Showers heavy, perhaps very heavy with thunder. Windy too and temperatures around 19’C. Showers fading fairly quickly in the evening, then a mixture of clear and cloudy spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

Saturday is another day of sunshine and heavy showers. A bit more sunshine than Friday, warmer too – we should reach 21’C, maybe 22’C. But those showers will be heavy, perhaps very heavy with thunder. You might get lucky and miss them all – possible, but unlikely. Showers fading in the evening, variable cloud overnight, down to around 13’C.

Sunday sees a bit more sunshine overall and fewer showers. Showers should be focused further south towards the coast, but there will still be a few dotted around in our area, and it could be heavy. Still not amazing amounts of sunshine, but more than recent and tending to be more later in the day. Around 21’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.

Similar for Monday, some sunny spells, some cloud, some scattered showers, possibly heavy. Around 20’C. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 12’C.

Another slight improvement for Tuesday (unless you are really loving the cloud and showers). More sunshine though still plenty of fair-weather cloud, lower chances of a shower but still possible. Around 21’C.

Suggestions of more organised heavy showers on Wednesday but this is pushing the possibilities for accuracy really.

Thursday and into Friday, it looks like the jetstream is going to dive even further south, into France or perhaps even northern Spain – taking the bulk of the rain there – but we’ll still see sunshine and scattered heavy showers. Unusual for it to go so far south in mid-summer – but unusual things happen in weather.

Next weekend is a fair way away, but I’d be surprised if it didn’t feature heavy showers or general rain. As I mentioned last week, this pattern looks to be set in for a little while – at least until around 10th August.

The week after may see an improvement – it was the date that I had pencilled in as the earliest realistic date for a change, for the jetstream to move back north and for us to end up on the warmer and drier side.

Still needs a bit of time to confirm – the unsettled/showery spell could easily continue, or perhaps it will be changeable for a few more days but an improvement in sunshine amounts.

I do have more hope for warmer and sunnier weather later in August. September unknown still.

Have a good weekend.…

Monday 26th July 2021

Well, it isn’t a summer week ahead – but isn’t a washout either. Changeable, some sunny spells, quite a bit of cloud, some showers – perhaps some general rain. Temperatures a little below normal – but at this time of year that is still warm.

So it could definitely be worse.

Thanks to Jonathan for the photograph.

A small chance of a heavy shower this evening but more likely staying dry, fairly cloudy overnight with a few showers pushing through, a quite a warm night at around 16’C.

By Tuesday, our weekend low pressure system has become a very large trough over the UK, stretching to Iceland in the north-west, Norway to our north-east and at least half-way into France to our south – this will dominate our weather this week.

It will be a day of sunshine and heavy showers. Sunshine fairly limited, most places seeing a few heavy showers, thunder possible – but feasible that you could miss them all, say 85% chance of a few showers. We lose the warmer air aloft, so maximum temperatures around 20’C. Quite cloudy overnight though some clear spells, down to around 14’C.

Wednesday is another day of sunshine and showers. Not too much sunshine – and lots of showers, most places likely to have at least a few, they could be very heavy, thunder/hail very possible. Also notably breezy, verging on windy. Just about squeezing 20’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

For Thursday it looks like the focus of the shower activity will be further north, and we’ll have a reasonably pleasant day. A fair amount of sunshine but also a fair amount of cloud too. Reaching around 21’C.

Some uncertainty for Thursday night into Friday. There is a good chance, say around 60%, of an area of general heavy/very heavy rain moving up from the south-west. Some uncertainty over whether it will happen – and then uncertainty on timing – it could arrive anywhere as early as Thursday evening or maybe not until Friday morning.

So Friday may start with some heavy rain – as I mentioned in the previous paragraph this is uncertain. Either way sunshine and scattered showers will be the main theme – nothing especially heavy or frequent expected. Around 20’C.

By Saturday our resident low pressure trough has moved to Scandinavia.

So not too bad a day, some sunny spells but plenty of cloud. Still a few showers dotted around, say a 40% chance of catching one or two, possibly on the heavy side. Reaching around 21’C in a northerly flow. Clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

Sunday looks reasonably fair. Sunny spells, a fair amount of fair-weather cloud, warm, around 22’C. Just a small chance of a shower but most likely dry. Clear spells overnight, around 13’C.

Monday looks similar, sunny spells, quite a bit of cloud and a chance of a heavy shower. Around 22’C.

The more likely outcome for the rest of next week sees a new low pressure trough arrive from the west/north-west at some point, maybe Tuesday or Wednesday, which will lead us back to more organised and frequent heavy, thundery showers.

That’s around an 80% chance – the Azores high nudging in to the south of England, giving something drier and sunnier if nothing especially summery, still with a few showers, would be around a 20% chance.

A return to anything more consistently settled is not likely before around 10th August – as I mentioned, a 20% chance. And a return to settled conditions around 10th August is far from certain either, maybe around a 50% chance.…

Sunday 25th July 2021 -Thundery Downpour Chances

A more interesting day today than yesterday. Still lots of cloud around – there should be some brightness later in the morning, or early afternoon, which will only help to develop the downpours, though I’d fancy that there is enough instability and humidity to develop them even if it stays cloudy.

Scattered heavy showers, possibly with hail and/or thunder, could develop anywhere over south-east England, though I don’t think they’ll develop much further west than Reading, so it certainly could stay dry today.

Of more concern than scattered heavy showers, it does look as though there will be a zone of convergence, say 20-40 miles wide, roughly NE to SW, where multiple torrential downpours will likely develop this afternoon, with hail and especially thunder very possible. This would likely lead to flooding in places – a few spots could see some excessive totals of rain.

This zone appears more likely to be over London, but there is a plausible chance that it could be further west – or perhaps it develops over London and very slowly moves west later in the day/evening.

As always, plenty of uncertainty over the details – but worth mentioning the risk. Worth keeping an eye out on a rain radar, especially if you are out and about today.

Still warm and humid, reaching around 22’C, assuming the sun comes out for a bit.…

Saturday 24th July 2021 – Thundery Downpour Chances

So the forecast for today is a bit trickier and the chance of thundery downpours is lower than it looked a couple of days ago.

The early morning thundery rain has left a drizzly, cloudy overhang – and until this clears, storms will not be able to initiate.

There are signs of cloud breaking up on the south coast now, and these cloud breaks should spread north, though the longer it takes, the less likely there are to be storms developing – and it is certainly possible that cloud doesn’t break up until say around 6pm.

So the forecast really depends on how quickly the cloud breaks up and it feels more likely to stay cloudy until mid/late afternoon. I’d say therefore around a 30% chance of catching a downpour later this afternoon and into the evening, 15% chance of lightning – but if the sun breaks through in early afternoon instead of mid/late afternoon, the chance of a downpour will increase, as will the chance that it will be torrential with fairly frequent lightning – a very small chance of largeish hail too.

And if it stays cloudy until the evening, you may get a heavy shower but unlikely anything more notable.…

Thursday 22nd July 2021

I hope you enjoyed summer.

Low pressure will move up from the south-west for this weekend, bringing some downpours and possible thunder/lightning – then the jetstream sinks south next week bringing more changeable conditions – but still some pleasant, warm sunshine too.

Thanks to Chris for the photograph…had to go back a little to find something more appropriate!

Tonight will be another warm night though a little less so than of late, eventually down to around 16’C.

Friday will see more sunny spells, though hazy at times, especially in the afternoon – also some fair weather cloud bubbling up like recent days. Less hot, around 26’C and a bit more humid, but nothing excessive.

Overnight sees the start of the (possibly thundery) breakdown, as showers move up from the south. These kind of breakdowns are always difficult to get the details right – feasibly showers could be as early as midnight, but more likely say 4am onwards. Showers could be very heavy, thunder/lightning is possible though not an especially high chances, say around 25% chance. Also feasible that the showers don’t arrive until dawn.

So for Saturday, our developing low pressure is sat over the south of England.

Therefore we will see heavy showers throughout the day. Suggestions are that they are more likely early-mid morning, and again from mid-afternoon through to the evening (so lunchtime less likely) – but don’t take that as a guarantee as they could occur any time. Possibly very heavy, thunder/lightning could easily be in the mix too – showers could merge into longer spells of heavy rain. Still very warm, humid too, with a bit of sunshine in between showers then around 24’C should be reached. Showers remain possible overnight, down to around 16’C.

Low pressure is still in charge for Sunday. Lots of heavy showers, some very heavy/torrential downpours, hail and thunder/lightning all very possible, arguably even probable. Limited sunshine in between showers. Still warm and humid, around 22’C. Showers fading with clear spells overnight, down to around 14’C.

Monday is an improvement. Low pressure will still be close enough to the east to give a chance of heavy showers, say around a 60% chance so some places will stay dry. Sunny spells and fair weather cloud otherwise, and very warm, around 25’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 14’C.

Tuesday again looks reasonable. Sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud, still the chance of a heavy shower, say around a 40% chance. Warm, 23’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 14’C.

Details are uncertain for Wednesday/Thursday, but the general theme is that our weekend low pressure system will be circulating around the UK somewhere as an enlarged trough, with other low pressure systems being attracted to it’s circulation.

This will mean temperatures down to around 20’C or so – lower than average for the time of year, and with some showers or general rain at times, for both Wednesday/Thursday – though some dry spells too with fairly limited sunshine, but some.

Friday and into next weekend will depend on how the low pressure trough develops during the week, and where it situates itself. More likely it will be either over the UK or to our east, meaning temperatures below normal (though still warm given that it is late July) with further showers/rain at times.

There is a small chance instead, that it ends up to our west, and we drag some very warm/hot and humid air up from the south, but I rate it as a 10% chance. Still, 10% chances do happen occasionally.

The more likely outcome for next week is that the low pressure trough reloads from the west/north-west with further showery conditions to come, below average temperatures but also some sunny spells at times.

More likely we will have to wait until around 7th to 10th (ish) for the next build of high pressure and some general settled conditions with some warm sunshine. Earlier cannot be ruled out. Likewise, neither could a continuation of the changeable conditions further into August.

Of course, August brings the wild card of Atlantic hurricanes into the question, which can help over-ride the other factors that are causing my expectations of how early-mid August will play out.

Enjoy your weekend…I’m looking forward to getting back out and about once more after a weekend at home (yeah…I was pinged).…

Tuesday 20th July 2021 – Thunderstorms Update

My kind of day! I don’t know what the cloud is like in Reading, but in my corner of NW London it is certainly bubbling up.

Thundery downpours have broken out in a few places already, and will continue to do so through the afternoon and early evening. I do think the greater risk area is roughly between London and Peterborough (both for higher chances of a thunderstorm and higher chances of severe weather in a thunderstorm), but we are in the game also, and I’d still suggest around a 30-40% chance of a thundery downpour.

For the next couple of hours, storms will probably be quite brief – building up, then fading away very quickly. But later in the afternoon they should be able to survive longer.

Large hail, gusty winds, torrential downpours, flash flooding and frequent lightning could be in the mix, or any combination of those.

But remember, you are more likely to miss them and stay hot and sunny (with some gorgeous clouds) than to catch one – but catch one, and you’ll probably know about it!…

Monday 19th July 2021

Hot and sunny this week – with small chances of thunderstorms.

Thanks to Lee for the photograph.

Tonight will be a warm night with clear skies, temperatures eventually getting down to around 18’C, maybe 19’C.

Tuesday sees low pressure to our west and to our east – with high pressure sandwiched in between, but not the strongest build ever.

It will be hot and sunny in the morning, some cloud will bubble up in the afternoon and scattered thunderstorms will break out. I’d suggest around a 30% chance of catching one, and if you do it could feature torrential downpours, lightning – a small chance of hail and/or localised flash flooding. Many places missing them and will just stay hot with sunny spells. 31’C should be reached. Another warm night under clear skies, eventually down to around 19’C.

Wednesday will again be largely hot and sunny. Fair weather cloud will bubble up, one or two isolated heavy, thundery showers will develop but I think no higher than a 10% chance of catching one. Hot, around 30’C. Clear skies overnight, a tad less warm, eventually down to 17’C.

Thursday looks a bit less sunny than of late, but still decent sunny spells – just more fair weather cloud bubbling up. Still hot but a tad less, around 28’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 16’C. A little high cloud spreading up from the south-west by dawn.

Friday sees sunny spells with variable amounts of cloud – sometimes rather cloudy, sometimes mostly sunny. High cloud will thicken during the afternoon making the sun hazy, as low pressure approaches from the south-west. Still very warm, around 25’C, likely somewhat humid too. Overnight (perhaps as early as late evening – timing is uncertain), a band of heavy, thundery rain will spread up from the south. Feeling quite warm and humid, around 17’C.

Saturday sees low pressure back in charge.

There may still be some heavy, thundery rain to clear in the morning – timing of the overnight rain is uncertain. This should clear north (not 100% certain – it could hang around) to leave sunshine and heavy showers. Kind of warm and humid, assuming some sunshine, around 23’C.

Sunday looks likely to be a day of sunshine and very heavy, thundery showers. Still a bit of uncertainty at this stage – I wouldn’t rule out general heavy rain, or dry with sunny spells. And temperatures around 22’C.

Next week is uncertain, though the somewhat more likely outcome keeps it changeable, with further heavy showers at times, perhaps general rain – but also some sunshine. Likely on the warm side.

We should return to something similar to this week, as we go into August.…

Monday 19th July 2021 – Small Chance Of Thundery Downpour

Morning. Another hot and sunny day today, we should reach around 30’C.

However, some cloud will bubble up this afternoon and isolated torrential downpours may develop. A bit of uncertainty over whether they will develop at all, but there is just about enough potential to be worth an update.

Around a 10% chance of catching a downpour this afternoon, with around a 5% chance of either lightning or hail. Localised flash flooding will be possible.

Slightly higher chances of a thundery downpour tomorrow.

You’ll have a full forecast this evening, but it will stay hot with sunny spells all week though gradually becoming less hot.…

Thursday 15th July 2021

Hot and sunny.


Thanks to Jonathan for the photograph.

Tonight sees cloud clearing, temperatures getting down to around 12’C.

Friday sees our high pressure nudge a bit further east, so we lose the northerly breeze which brought us lots of cloud in recent days.

Long spells of sunshine for most of the day, a little patchy cloud developing in places during the afternoon which will be hit and miss, some places seeing short cloudy spells, others staying glorious. 25’C, maybe 26’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 15’C.

Saturday again sees long spells of sunshine. A little bit of cloud bubbling up in places in the afternoon, but again hit and miss, some places staying glorious. Hot, 28’C feels realistic. Mostly clear skies overnight and a warmer night too, no lower than 17’C.

Sunday again sees long spells of glorious sunshine. A little bit of fair weather cloud possible and we should just about reach 30’C – which, if we do, I think is the first time this year? More in the way of cloud overnight so a warm night, around 18’C.

Monday sees our high pressure system a little to the north-west, which allows a weather front to scrape along the eastern side of the UK, bringing something a little fresher.

Still a reasonable day, a fair amount of cloud but also some decent sunny spells. One or two scattered showers will develop – they will be hit and miss but could be heavy. Still quite hot, around 25’C, maybe 26’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 15’C.

Tuesday again sees sunny spells, but quite a bit of cloud developing especially around lunchtime/early afternoon. A small chance of a shower and still very warm, 24’C, maybe 25’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

Wednesday will see sunshine amounts increasing once more, and probably temperatures too. Still some fair weather cloud around but another pleasant day overall. Temperatures somewhere between 23’C and 28’C – depending on the position of low pressure to our west which could drag up something hotter – uncertain at this stage.

Uncertainty starts to increase from Thursday as a low pressure system to the west edges closer – which will determine temperatures and also shower chances in the latter part of next week and into the weekend.

More likely it stays sunny on Thursday, and very warm/hot – though I cannot discount thunderstorms or thundery rain arriving on Thursday or Thursday night.

More likely would be that thunderstorms or thundery rain arrives on Friday and staying showery for a couple of days after – but confidence isn’t especially high yet.

It should settle down again – I don’t expect this low pressure system to bring a change in the weather like the (non-thundery) low did in June at the end of the hot spell.

With plenty more fine, summer weather to end July and for a good chunk of August – though not perfect – not without showers/thunderstorms on a few days and temperatures will vary, sometimes warm, sometimes very warm/hot.

Enjoy the hot and sunny weekend, if you can. It feels like ages since I’ve been able to sit outside and have a beer on a weekend in the sunshine.…

Monday 12th July 2021

Summer’s coming home.

Really. It is. After the heartbreak of last night (at least for those reading who support England), hopefully the promise of high pressure building from the west during this week will offer some hope.

I have been expecting a switch to high pressure over or close to the UK to occur in the first part of July for some time now, it is a few days later than I previously expected, but we should this week switch to summer-like conditions for a few weeks – not perfect, not without showers at times, not glorious sunshine every day – but a big improvement from recent weeks.

And yes, I’m expecting to be too tired to do a forecast this evening, hence doing one now with the morning’s weather models instead of usual evening ones!

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

We are not quite done with the unsettled weather yet – this afternoon will see heavy showers break out widely, hail, thunder and some torrential downpours all possible, and this will carry on through the evening. I’d be surprised if you missed them all, but feasible that you could stay dry and avoid them, highly unlikely though. Kind of warm and humid, around 20’C or a tad over. Showers gradually fading later this evening, variable cloud overnight, down to around 14’C.

By Tuesday we have our low pressure trough to our east, with high pressure starting to nudge in from The Azores.

Still quite a lot of cloud around, but there will be some sunny breaks – especially later in the afternoon. Still some showers developing, they could be heavy but some places will stay dry. Warmer, 22’C is likely. Clear spells overnight, though more cloud by dawn, down to around 14’C.

Wednesday looks like seeing quite a lot of cloud for a good portion of the day, but still some brightness at times and only a small chance of a light shower. Likely sunnier by late afternoon. Very warm, 23’C and breezy too. Clear spells overnight, down to around 14’C.

Thursday starts sunny but a lot of cloud will bubble up, and for a good portion of the day it will be mostly cloudy – only a small chance of a light shower. Again from around mid/late afternoon sunshine amounts will increase. Very warm and breezy, 23’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

By Friday high pressure is more dominant over the UK, and we lose the annoying northerly breeze of the previous days bringing the cloud.

And this means glorious sunshine all day. Yep. Maybe a little cloud at times, but the nicest day for some time – and reaching around 25’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

Saturday also sees long spells of sunshine. Maybe a little cloud at times, but overwhelmingly sunny and very warm, around 25’C, maybe a little more. Clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

Sunday again sees long spells of sunshine and very little cloud, if any. Temperatures nudging up to the hot category, around 28’C. Clear skies overnight and a warmer night too, down to around 17’C.

Next week will see high pressure remain in control, though the orientation is uncertain at this stage and this means whether it is glorious sunshine or there are some cloudy spells is uncertain, and also temperatures are uncertain – likely either warm or hot. Not expecting anything heatwave-like.

Chances of heavy showers/thunderstorms increases for later next week but that is very vague at this stage.

Broadly I do expect this high-pressure dominated scenario to last until at least early August, perhaps mid-August at a push. But as I mentioned in the introduction, it won’t always be glorious sunshine – there will be some cloud at times, there will be the odd weather front from the north-west bringing some rain and fresher conditions occasionally, and also the odd homegrown thundery downpour, more likely on hot days.

The chance of heatwave conditions is lower than recent summers, but is possible. Mostly I expect it to be very warm or hot during the next few weeks.…