Monday 28th June 2021

Slowly improving. Slowly.

Thanks to Pete for the photograph.

This evening sees a small chance of a heavy downpour, say 10%, but they should remain to our south. Generally cloudy overnight, still a small chance of a non-heavy shower, down to around 14’C.

Tuesday will be mostly cloudy with the decaying weather front to our south. A little occasional light/moderate rain at times, but dry for much of the time. A little brightness possible towards late afternoon and into the evening, though a stray isolated shower will remain possible – 18’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, again a small chance of a stray shower in the northerly breeze, 11’C.

Wednesday remains mostly cloudy. A little brightness possible in early morning, a little bit more brightness probable late in the day. But for the most part, it will be cloudy, with some showery light/moderate rain around – though very hit and miss. Around 17’C. Some clear spells overnight, down to around 11’C.

For the 1st day of July, we can see high pressure building over Scandinavia – which is where you want it if you want it to be hot in summer. Though perhaps there is too much momentum towards the Atlantic at this time for it to last.

But for now, and for Thursday, it looks like the morning will see decent sunny spells, but cloud will build during the afternoon – uncertain as to quite how much at this stage, anywhere from becoming fairly cloudy to mostly cloudy. Warmer, around 20’C, and a very small chance of a shower. Fairly cloudy overnight, some clear spells, down to around 12’C.

Friday looks the best day for a little while. Sunny spells, quite a bit of fair weather cloud bubbling up with a 15% chance of a heavy shower. Very warm, around 23’C. Clear spells overnight, tending to be more cloud later in the night, 14’C.

Saturday sees a weather front spread up from the south-west. It does look more like it will be a case of showers rather than general rain at this stage, so no guarantee of catching one, but as it will be associated with a weather front then probably catching a few, and probably some heavy ones. But some sunshine at times, too albeit likely hazy and still rather warm, say 21’C.

Sunday, not hugely confident yet, but more likely to be a case of sunshine and heavy showers – perhaps very heavy with hail and/or thunder. Likely warm or very warm, somewhere between 22’C and 25’C.

Next week is too close to call – could be a short very wet spell or could be the start of high pressure building in from The Azores, bring summer proper. If it is the short very wet spell, I’d expect high pressure to build after and certainly by mid-July at the very latest. Well…nothing is certain in weather, but you know what I mean.

Enjoy the occasional nice day!…

Thursday 24th June 2021

What, no football tonight? Well, I can offer you a meteorological own goal or two over the coming few days.

I left you on Monday evening with the idea that a barely-existing low pressure trough would move south-east overnight on Thursday, and bring some showers in the two days after – with an uncertain outlook, either the trough would move away or fade away and it would become very warm and sunny, or the trough would hang around and invigorate itself.

Alas, for those looking for a return to summer, the latter outcome is now expected.

Forecasting exactly when it will rain is going to be tricky until the trough is in place, and there is an understanding over how rain bands will spiral around – so my attempts at forecasting timings will be very general and subject to being wrong.

Don’t worry, summer will be back – and there is some fairly warm sunshine in the forecast too.

Thanks to Jonathan for the photograph.

This evening will be fairly cloudy, a scattered shower possible, overnight sees thicker cloud spread down from the north-west with some occasional rain, down to around 13’C.

Friday sees high pressure to our west, this sneaky low pressure trough forming over the east of England.

Friday starts with bits of showery rain, this will move east and a bit of sunshine will follow. The afternoon looks pleasant in terms of sunny spells, but there will be heavy showers breaking out in places, maybe around a 40% chance of catching one, but you’ll likely know about it if you do – a small chance of thunder too. 20’C, maybe 21’C is feasible. Clear spells overnight, some cloud at times and more likely towards the morning, a small chance of a stray shower, down to around 10’C.

Saturday should be pleasant though there is a shower risk. Reasonable amounts of sunny spells though a quite a bit of cloud, and around a 30% chance of a shower or two in the afternoon. Around 21’C. Overnight sees cloud push up from the south from our pesky trough now over France, perhaps with some patchy rain. Around 14’C.

Sunday is still uncertain. Rain will get to the south coast – it may get this far north, it may not. It likely starts cloudy either way and I think it is slightly more likely the main rain stays to our south. Assuming so, the sun will come out – but heavy, possibly thundery showers will break out in the afternoon and became the band of rain come the evening/overnight. Likely warm and a bit humid too, around 21’C. Likely cloudy overnight with some showery rain, around 14’C.

Monday sees the low pressure trough close to our south, and more of a feature than it was.

Details uncertain, but broadly speaking rather cloudy, some rain likely at some point – whether that be from showers or more general rain is uncertain. Some sunshine also possible, and temperatures somewhere between 18’C and 21’C.

I’m afraid Tuesday is beyond the realms of accurate forecasting at the moment, and will be for a couple more days due to the nature of this low pressure trough. It is very plausible that there is a spell of heavy rain – but likewise there is a fair chance that the low pressure trough might be far enough south for us to enjoy some warm sunshine instead.

I have fairly low confidence for Wednesday onwards, though I’d suggest a changeable and showery theme more likely, and perhaps a fairly wide range of temperatures – some cool days but also some very warm/humid days.

Once we get past the first weekend of July, there are fairly strong signals for the Azores High to build to bring more lengthy very warm/hot sunshine, for a time.

And I still expect much of the rest of July and August to be dominated by high pressure, though on average more often close to our west which reduces the chances of heatwave conditions compared to normal (like there will still be some very hot days), and will also allow for low pressure troughs to occasionally set up and bring showery/wet conditions for around 3-5 days, like this upcoming spell.

But overall, you should remember July and August as being mostly warm/very warm, often dry and often sunny.…

Monday 21st June 2021

A mixed week ahead, but a big improvement on the last few days (unless you prefer it cloudy and cool, of course.

Thanks to Mandy for the photograph – perhaps a bit ambitious in terms of sunshine though!

This evening and most of the night will see further showery rain – mostly light or moderate, and some dry spells at times, especially later in the night. Down to around 9’C in a northerly breeze.

Tuesday sees a ridge of high pressure building over north-west Britain, with our low pressure squeezing south.

It starts cloudy, perhaps still some patchy rain around but that will move south. During the afternoon there will be some sunny breaks developing – likely still a lot of cloud, but slowly improving in terms of sunshine. Still on the cool side, around 16’C in a northerly breeze. Clear skies overnight and quite chilly for the time of year, down to around 7’C.

Wednesday will be much more pleasant. Good spells of sunshine, some cloud developing at times and back to being warm – around 20’C. Clear spells overnight, though likely more cloud later, down to around 8’C.

Thursday has a bit of uncertainty on cloud amounts – we will be in a weather no man’s land – with neither high or low pressure really having any control. Likely sunny in the morning with more cloud from lunchtime onwards, or something broadly like that – with a 30% chance of a shower in the afternoon/evening. On the warm side, around 20’C – perhaps a tad more. Likely cloudy overnight, with some showery rain later, around 13’C.

Friday’s forecast isn’t the clearest as it looks like a low pressure trough will vaguely develop on Thursday night into Friday and push down, but barely registering as a feature. However, enough to give a chance of some heavy showers through Friday, with some sunshine – quite how much of both sunshine and showers is uncertain at this stage. Temperatures around 20’C, but could easily be a few either way. Mostly cloudy overnight, around 13’C.

Saturday’s forecast is also frustratingly difficult to call, and will depend on what happens with Friday’s vague feature. Either something along the lines of sunny spells, warm but with heavy showers – or rather cloudy, on the cool side with a couple of scattered showers.

Unfortunately the uncertainty means that I’m probably going to have to give up here.

Two broad and very different broad paths seem possible from Sunday and into the first part of next week.

The slightly more likely one is that high pressure takes some control, and there is increasing amounts of sunshine, it becomes very warm, but we have a chance of heavy, thundery showers.

The slightly less likely one is that the vague low pressure feature hangs around and develops more, meaning more heavy rain and showers, with temperatures below normal.

Not the best forecast I’ve ever written, but it is what it is. Hopefully things will be a bit clearer by Thursday when I do my next forecast…well…they will be.…

Thursday 17th June 2021

Well, the thunderstorms evaded us last night – it was a Kent only event in terms of thunder/lightning, as it so often has been in recent years in such plume destabilisation scenarios.#

There are further chances of some thunder/lightning in the coming days – and certainly of lots of heavy rain. Summer is over…for a while.

Thanks to Chickena for the photograph…had to scroll a way back to find a rain one!

This evening sees showery rain, some heavy, perhaps very heavy in one or two spots. It should become generally light and patchy towards midnight – though this is uncertain. Then at some point after around 2am (feasibly it might not be until 7/8am) further outbreaks of heavy/very heavy rain will spread up from the south – a small chance of some thunder mixed in too. Another warm and humid night, no lower than 15’C.

Friday sees low pressure in control to our south-east.

Spells of very heavy rain should spread up from the south, potentially torrential at times with thunder very possible, along with localised flash flooding. Again, there is uncertainty as to how this develops – one model isn’t really having it at all, but all other models are, so the event as a whole is around a 95% chance. Rainfall could be excessive – anywhere from 20mm (which is the kind of amount from a full-on autumn weather system) to 60mm, which certainly would cause flash flooding in places. Different areas will see differing amounts of rain. Temperatures around 16’C. Rain will become more showery and less heavy in the evening, and clear overnight – down to around 11’C.

Saturday is going to be mostly cloudy, at least in the morning. There should be a bit of sunshine in the afternoon – though amounts uncertain and more likely more cloud than sunshine. Temperatures somewhere between 19’C and 22’C, depending on sunshine amounts. The odd scattered shower will be possible in the afternoon if the sun comes out to any decent extent, and then at some point in the evening/overnight (timing uncertain), further rain will spread up from the south – likely heavy, possibly very heavy/torrential at times, a rumble or two of thunder again possible. Down to around 11’C.

Sunday is a bit of a messy picture, and gosh this is the hardest work forecast for some time. Likely cloudy to start, possibly some showery rain still to clear. The sun should come out, but further scattered showers will be possible. Still on the warm side, 20’C. Further showers or showery rain possible overnight – uncertain.

Monday is most likely a day of limited sunshine and lots of heavy showers. Thunder possible. Again a bit of uncertainty on position of the low pressure system, so there could be fewer showers, but most likely lots. The positioning of the low pressure system means temperatures could be anywhere from 14’C to 20’C. Further rain or shower probable overnight.

That word again, “uncertain” for Tuesday. Low pressure is likely to be having less influence, with fewer showers and showers being less heavy. Also feeling notably cooler, around 15’C.

Wednesday, confidence is not high, but more likely to be a reasonable day – some cloud, some sunshine, small chance of a shower. Somewhere between 17’C and 20’C.

I don’t think I can suggest day to day details from here.

Though generally Thursday onwards looks changeable, with at least one low pressure system moving through from the west/north-west, which would bring a pattern of one band of rain, followed by 1-2 days of heavy showers, followed by 1-2 days of fine conditions. Temperatures around average.

Things should generally recover for the beginning of July, maybe a few days into July, with more warm/very warm sunshine – occasional bands of rain or showers too.…

Wednesday 16th June 2021 – Thunderstorm Chances

Thunderstorms are on their way…for some areas.

As always, thundery breakdowns are a nightmare to forecast in detail. All the models still show something different at this late stage, so I’ll do my best to aggregate the projected outcomes taking into account what has developed so far.

There are several notable opportunities for thunderstorms this evening and through the night. Some areas will miss them all, a few areas may catch them all. For thunder/lightning, I suspect anywhere as far west as Swindon is in the game (ie, so are we), but the chances of some thunder/lightning, especially frequent lightning, increase as you go further east, especially Kent, Essex, perhaps London.

Torrential downpours, are roughly equally likely anywhere from as far west as Bristol, and to the east coast – and with this the chance of localised flash flooding, possibly some damaging wind gusts and a small chance of hail.

Overall I’d suggest a 40% chance of some lightning, 20% chance of a decent thunderstorm with frequent lightning, 60% chance of some torrential downpours. As I said, it may all pass us by.

The first opportunity is this evening. Thunderstorms broke out over northern France this afternoon and are travelling across the English Channel now – but are currently struggling to survive the crossing. This could still lead to some showers in the early/mid evening hours – a low chance of a heavy downpour and thunder.

As the plume of hot air destabilises, thunderstorms over the English Channel should then find it easier to cross the channel, and also initiate over the channel – and then push north veering north-east for late evening, say 10/11pm onwards. These may form a more notable single thunderstorm system (known as an MCS), though if it does then that would increase the chance of London/south-east getting all the action from this. These storms/storm will be more likely to have lightning, torrential downpours, etc.

Overnight, scattered downpours and perhaps lightning may still occur, and then there is likely to be another batch of torrential downpours, with possible frequent lightning from elevated storms from around 4am – give or take.

It’s a really complex picture tonight and one only possible to forecast an hour or two ahead, at best. This is my best understanding of the potential – it is a dynamic situation so it could easily turn out very differently.

In summary, there is a fair chance of some lightning, a small chance of frequent lightning from a notable thunderstorm, a good chance of some torrential downpours. Some places will totally miss everything.

Don’t forget the radar and lightning detectors are available.

Full forecast tomorrow evening as usual.…

Monday 14th June 2021

Two more hot days – then the thundery breakdown.

The forecast is going to be a bit vague for later in the week as these style of thundery breakdowns are not only uncertain right up to the moment in terms of where will get thunderstorms and where will get downpours – but are also uncertain in terms of what happens in the 2-3 days after.

Thanks to Fay for the glorious photograph.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy due to a very weak weather front that is spreading south-east slowly – remaining rather warm and humid, eventually down to 16’C.

Tuesday will be rather cloudy in the morning, though some sunny breaks too. Gradually sunshine amounts will increase – with long spells of sunshine by late afternoon, if not earlier. Still very warm, though a bit lower than today, 25’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, fairly warm and quite humid too, 15’C.

Wednesday is the last hot and sunny day of this spell. Long spells of hot sunshine all day, maybe some cloud later in the afternoon as the fun and games approaches. 28’C likely, perhaps more – and humid too. Late evening onwards will see showers spread up from the south – likely heavy or even torrential, thunder/lightning possible. A warm and muggy night, no lower than 18’C.

I stress again the uncertainty for this period!

Thursday morning may well still see further showers or general rain, likely heavy, thunder possible – when it clears is uncertain, it may have cleared by dawn or it may not clear until midday. Likely mostly cloudy afterwards, some bright spells possible – especially if the overnight showers/storms cleared quite early. Likely also still warm and humid, say around 22’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, still quite a warm and humid feel, down to around 15’C – a chance of showers by dawn.

Friday sees low pressure close to our south-east.

It isn’t certain, but most likely further showers or general rain spread up from the south-east. Lots of uncertainty – it could arrive anywhere from morning until evening, it could just be some showers, or it could be many hours of very heavy rain. Maximum temperatures anywhere between 15’C and 22’C. Showers/rain likely continuing into the evening and perhaps overnight for a time too.

Tentatively Saturday looks reasonable, with quite a bit of cloud but some sunny spells, and temperatures around 21’C. I state this with fairly low confidence though.

Either Saturday night or Sunday may see the next spell of heavy, possibly thundery showers moving up from the south – probably still warm or very warm.

Low confidence for next week, but suggestions that it will be cooler than normal and certainly of late, sunshine and showers.…

Saturday 12th June 2021

Becoming hot but a change is in sight for next week…and maybe some thunderstorms.

I had 4 excellent photographs to choose from this week – thanks to Paul for the photograph of the cricket. A sports-themed photograph seems apt given the kick-off of Euro 2020 – alas, Euro 2020 is also to blame for me forgetting to do the forecast last night. Oops.

Saturday will be sunnier than recent days – though still some cloud around. High cloud at first, making the sun a tad hazy, this will clear but fair weather cloud will bubble up at times from late morning – likely late morning through to early afternoon the cloudiest time, but there will be sunny spells too. Very warm but feeling a tad fresher in a light northerly breeze, 24’C. Mostly clear tonight, 12’C.

High pressure remains in control for Sunday, and the positioning just allows something hotter to drift up from the south.

Long spells of sunshine, a little bit of fair weather cloud in the afternoon, hot – reaching 27’C, maybe 28’C. Perfect for sitting indoors and watching football. Mostly clear overnight, down to around 15’C.

Monday morning looks sunny and hot. A very weak weather front spreading down from the north-west in the afternoon will bring more cloud, but still some sunny breaks. Hot, around 27’C, maybe 28’C – a bit humid too. Cloud at times overnight, 14’C.

Tuesday looks like there will be more cloud around, particularly in the morning. Uncertain on how much cloud, and likely some sunny spells also – and generally increasing amounts of sunshine as the day goes on. Temperatures a tad lower but still very warm, around 25’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

Wednesday heralds the change, but could be our hottest day of the year so far. Sunny spells probable in the morning, but cloud bubbling up in the afternoon with a chance of thunderstorms – I know it will be one of those nightmare forecasting situations. Likely hot, say 28’C to 30’C – though there is a chance that the thundery low develops in the morning instead which would reduce potential temperatures. The chance of thunderstorms and torrential downpours will remain in the evening and overnight – I can only offer “a chance” at the moment as it will be difficult to pin down the track and development of thunderstorms until nearer the time. Likely warm and humid overnight too.

Thursday…well…it could be anything depending on how and where the thundery low develops on Wednesday. It could be sunny, it could be cloudy, there could still be thunderstorms or general rain around. It might be fresher – or it might still be very warm and humid.

I guess I should give up here. Until the thundery low is resolved in the models, late next week and next weekend could be anything you might expect in June.

I’d suggest two main broad patterns are more likely, one is a return to fresher, more westerly-based weather once Wednesday’s thundery low clears – sunny spells, a chance of a shower or two, and temperatures around 20’C, give or take a couple of degrees.

But the thundery low could instead linger close to the UK for a few days (or a secondary thundery low may follow from the south), bringing further thunderstorms/showers/general heavy rain – but also some further very warm/hot sunshine at times, plus humidity.

Either way, the very warm/quite hot, fine and sunny conditions of late are likely to re-assert themselves afterwards. Summer will take a break, but it will be coming home quickly.

I’ll be back on Monday. Enjoy the football/beers/BBQ/sunbathing/picnic – whatever it is you have planned.…

Monday 7th June 2021

Summer continues. Not perfectly glorious – some cloud at times – but also temperatures ticking up to quite hot.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

Some patchy cloud at first tonight but becoming generally clear as the night goes on, down to around 11’C.

Tuesday continues with the theme of the Azores High stretching towards and over the UK – it isn’t especially strong but there is nothing going on in the Atlantic either with a weak jetstream to our north, so settled conditions prevail.

There will be good spells of very warm sunshine. Some bits of cloud floating around at times, probably some high cloud in the afternoon making it a tad hazy, but generally very pleasant – 24’C, maybe 25’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Wednesday will see long spells of sunshine. A bit of fair weather cloud later in the afternoon drifting in from the west – but otherwise mostly sunny. Quite hot, 26’C. Mostly clear skies overnight and a little stuffy too, 15’C.

Thursday looks cloudier as remnants of decaying weather fronts from the Atlantic get mixed in. Quite how much cloud is uncertain, but likely more cloud than sunshine overall – but still very warm with some sunshine – and a trend towards more sunshine later in the afternoon. Around 25’C, give or take a degree or two, depending on how much sunshine we end up with. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

Likely quite a bit of cloud around in the morning on Friday, though very warm with some sunny breaks also. Generally becoming sunnier in the afternoon. Temperatures again will depend on quite how much cloud there is, but somewhere between 24’C and 27’C. Mostly clear overnight, down to around 13’C.

Saturday sees the high pressure become more UK-focused.

Either good spells of sunshine with some fair weather cloud, or long spells of sunshine – temperatures in the hot range, reaching somewhere between 26’C and 28’C.

Sunday looks very similar to Saturday – with the added intrigue that the 13th June is the only date in June never to have reached 30’C in the UK – there is an outside chance that somewhere might.

How long can this go on for?

Well, I’m pretty confident that it will stay hot and sunny for Monday. Less confident for Tuesday, but more likely than not.

But at some point next week, either midweek or at best late in the week, I’d expect a transition to a short unsettled spell, perhaps initiated by a thundery breakdown. At the moment, I expect it to be a brief unsettled spell with fine and warm conditions re-asserting themselves afterwards – but this is a long way away.

Best get the BBQ/picnic planned.…

Summer Weather Forecast 2021

Welcome to my Summer Weather Forecast for 2021.

I think if this forecast is more right than wrong, most of you should be pleased. Of course, I don’t always get it right – seasonal forecasts are experimental – at best some of the details will be wrong, at worst a month or so could be completely opposite to what I expect – competing drivers of the weather over the UK do make long-term predictions difficult.

This happened to my spring forecast – I got March and April reasonably close (though didn’t expect the amount of cold nights we had), but May I forecasted warm and sunny for most of it. Well it was for the last 5 days – does that count?! Of course not – my spring forecast was a disaster for May, though I did also suggest that that June would be sunnier and warmer than average – so far so good on that count.

So don’t take it as gospel.

Also I do ask if you can share the forecast in some way. Invite friends on Facebook, retweet on Twitter, e-mail it to your boss. Whatever works.

And a final piece of admin is to say thank you to Kira for the photograph adorning the forecast and the cover of the Facebook page for the next 3 months. A donation has been sent to Breast Cancer Now.

Background signals

Background signals generally have less influence in summer over UK weather.

La Niña has faded and we are broadly in neutral conditions, though perhaps there might be some “atmospheric memory” which could increase the chances of cloudier, cooler conditions from the north-west at times – similar to last July, but any spells should be short.

The sudden stratospheric warming event in January led to blocking highs which brought us cold weather in January, February and, arguably, April. It is my view that this pattern can persist in summer – though at this time of year, blocking highs nearly will mean warmer (unless over Greenland) and sunnier than normal conditions. I don’t think this is accepted scientific fact though – more my belief.

Sea surface temperatures around the UK are lower than normal, which would suggest that until they warm up, land temperatures will tend to be a shade lower than otherwise would be expected – though I doubt you’ll notice it.


June started very warm and sunny, and I expect this to continue into the second week, though with scattered heavy showers on a few days too, perhaps with thunder.

High pressure should remain in control for much of the month, generally close to Scandinavia – suggestions of a short hot spell around mid-month, with a breakdown to a short cooler and unsettled spell are there – before high pressure reasserts itself with more warm/very warm and fairly sunny weather. Away from the short hot spell/breakdown, low cloud may form overnight on some nights, and take a bit of time to clear in the morning.

Suggestions of something more changeable towards the very end of the month.

Overall I expect June to be sunnier than average, warmer than average with rainfall totals below average – unless one of the thundery showers is especially potent.

Confidence around 90%.


July looks a bit more mixed, and may start cooler than normal, with some rain/showers – but also some fine, sunny days in the mix.

Signals are fairly weak after the beginning 7-10 days, but high pressure should feature over or close to the UK. Whilst some changeable conditions will be likely – I’m not expecting a long-lasting settled spell like in June, I think the main theme should still be for more very warm, sunny weather – hot at times though also some thundery downpours developing on some days.

Overall I expect July to be around average for sunshine, perhaps a tad below, slightly warmer than average and slightly wetter than average.

Confidence around 60%.


In recent years we’ve often seen the summer deteriorating by late July and through August, though this year I am more hopeful that high pressure will stage a renaissance.

For much of the month, high pressure should be close to the UK, meaning many more days of warm/very warm sunshine – hot at times, but also a chance of cooler days, depending on the exact positioning of high pressure.

There is a slight signal for it to shift north of the UK at times, so this will again mean some periods where it is still very warm and sunny, but heavy, thundery showers will develop.

I don’t have a particular reading over what part of August will be the hottest, but perhaps the latter half if I’m pushed.

Overall I expect August to be sunnier than normal, warmer than normal (though that does depend on high pressure positioning) and slightly below average for rainfall (though again, catch a notable downpour and locally you may end up above average).

Confidence around 70%.

Summary and Autumn suggestions

Not bad, huh? If it comes true, of course, as I will get some things wrong – signals are particularly weak for July so it could easily end up wetter than I expect, I do feel more confident for August’s forecast than July’s.

Looking ahead to autumn…and winter…yes it is time to start thinking about winter forecasts.

Currently there is a slight signal for a wetter than normal September. There is a fairly strong signal for a cooler than normal second half to autumn – perhaps colder than normal might be more descriptive, but also drier than normal second half.

There are background signals suggesting that cold spells are more likely than normal this coming winter too.

Autumn/winter is, of course, a long way away and things can and will change in terms of background signals, so only take this as a guide for now.

Enjoy the summer.…

Thursday 2rd June 2021

Staying very warm, often sunny – but there are some showers in the mix too.

Thanks to Victoria for the photograph.

Tonight sees quite a lot of mid-level cloud, perhaps even a spot of light rain this evening. Down to around 14’C – a small chance of importing the left-overs of continental thundery showers by dawn.

Friday has a bit of uncertainty – thunderstorms over the continent will extend their reach to the eastern parts of England as they drift north, and there is always some uncertainty on their track. Most likely we’ll end up with quite a lot of medium level cloud, some occasional sunny breaks and possibly some occasional light/moderate showery rain – but it will depend on how far west it stretches.

So we could end up sunnier than this, or we could end up generally cloudier and wetter, perhaps with a rumble of thunder. Temperatures will depend on sunshine amounts, and hence quite how far west the rain reaches, so maximum temperatures anywhere between 15’C and 21’C – quite humid too. Cloud mostly clearing overnight, down to around 11’C.

For Saturday we are back to warm sunshine. There will be some cloud bubbling up in the afternoon, but broadly warm and sunny – around 22’C. Fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

By Sunday the picture remains that high pressure is in control, though not the strongest ever build.

Plenty of sunshine again, but fair weather cloud will bubble up – likely more than on Saturday with a 15% chance of catching a heavy shower in the afternoon. Warm. around 22’C. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 13’C.

Monday again sees sunny spells, but quite a bit of cloud will bubble up. A greater chance of heavy showers developing, and I’d estimate around a 30% chance of catching one or two – perhaps very heavy with a small chance of thunder too. Very warm, 23’C, perhaps a shade more. Variable amounts of cloud overnight, down to around 13’C.

Similar again for Tuesday, sunny spells, some cloud bubbling up and around a 25% chance of catching a heavy shower – a small chance of thunder. Very warm, around 23’C or so. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 13’C.

Wednesday, Thursday and Friday should remain very warm with sunny spells. Some cloud bubbling up and a small chance of a heavy shower. Around 24’C, maybe a tad more. Clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

Next weekend is quite a way away – most likely it remains mostly settled with sunny spells and a small chance of a shower, though perhaps becoming less warm – that bit more uncertain.

I will get my summer forecast written this weekend!…