Monday 31st May 2021

You could say summer has started.

It will remain very warm this week – not completely glorious as there will be some cloud at times, and some showers – more likely second part of the week. But still, it is summer as we expect in the UK.

Thanks to Cari for the sunny photograph.

Tonight sees mostly clear skies in a light southerly breeze, down to around 12’C.

Tuesday sees a large area of high pressure over Scandinavia which is ruling our weather – though a developing area of low pressure over Spain/France will start to push north.

It will be sunny day all – a little fair weather cloud possible along with some high cloud later in the day. Very warm, 25’C. High cloud overnight, down to around 12’C.

Wednesday sees that small area of low pressure track north to give some complications. It will be another very warm day, hazy sunshine in the morning, somewhat thicker cloud in the afternoon but still bright. A small chance of a shower in the afternoon, a moderate chance of a shower or some showery rain in the evening, perhaps heavy and a very small chance of thunder – temperatures reaching somewhere between 25’C and 27’C. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 14’C.

Thursday may start rather cloudy and misty, but this should break up fairly quickly to leave sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud. A chance of a heavy shower in the afternoon, say around a 20% chance but more likely they won’t develop. Warm, around 21’C – give or take. Reasonably clear skies overnight – though there is a small chance that earlier thunderstorms over France may bring something cloudier with a bit of rain. Down to around 12’C – give or take.

The most likely outcome for Friday sees sunny spells and variable amounts of fair weather cloud. Warm – around 20’C. There is a small chance instead, say around a 10% chance, of importing some heavy and thundery rain from France – not likely as it should be well to our east, but worth mentioning as it would be completely different from my current expectations! Mostly clear overnight, down to around 10’C.

Saturday sees high pressure in reasonable control. The most likely outcome sees some sunny spells, probably quite a bit of cloud around but overall pleasant and warmer again, around 22’C – perhaps more. Clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.

Sunday most likely remains fair, with sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud – both fair weather cloud and high cloud. A small chance of an afternoon shower, temperatures around 22’C, give or take. Around 12’C overnight.

Most likely high pressure remains in control next week – it should stay warm or very warm, and often sunny. Cannot rule out some heavy, perhaps thundery afternoon showers at times – the expected build of high pressure isn’t quite strong enough to rule it out. But broadly – summer as we know it in the UK.…

Wednesday 26th May 2021

WARNING. This weather forecast is going to feature the word, “warm”, on multiple occasions.

Yes, high pressure is taking control at last, and things are going to warm up, perhaps becoming very warm. Not all so straight-forward there will be some cloud at times, and still one or two showers also.

And I’ve just realised – this will be our first warm spell since…September? I don’t count the two days at the end of March as a “spell”!

Thanks to Paul for the photograph. Well, two photographs.

Tonight sees fairly clear skies, down to around 5’C.

Thursday starts sunny. Plenty of pointless low-level cloud will bubble up by late morning, there will be a few sunny breaks – and increasingly so as the afternoon goes on, it should finish very pleasant. Just a very small chance of a light shower around lunchtime. Feeling warmer, around 18’C – perhaps a shade more. High cloud building overnight from the west, down to around 8’C.

Friday sees a weather front trying to push across from the west, but being slowly squeezed out of existence as high pressure builds. It means it will be rather cloudy but with hazy sunshine, occasionally cloud thick enough for the odd light bit of rain – possibly anyway. Fairly warm, 18’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, the odd spot of rain, around 10’C.

By Saturday high pressure is building more extensively – from the Azores through the UK into Scandinavia – a similar set-up as to much of spring 2020.

Still quite a bit of cloud trapped underneath the high from that decayed weather front, so likely that sunny spells will be outpaced by cloud amounts, and there will be the odd shower around – most likely not heavy. Warm, 20’C – maybe a shade more. Clear spells overnight, down to around 9’C.

Sunday will be sunny. It starts pretty glorious, some fair weather cloud will bubble up but less than of late – a very small chance of a shower. Warm, we should squeeze 22’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 9’C.

Bank Holiday Monday again starts sunny. Fair weather cloud will bubble up, again a very small chance of a shower but another pleasant and warm day. 22’C, maybe 23’C. Clear spells overnight, some high cloud also – down to around 10’C.

Tuesday looks even warmer. Likely some high cloud around making it a bit hazy, but also less of the fair weather cloud. Very warm, 25’C is achievable. Clear spells overnight, down to around 10’C.

Wednesday is likely very similar – low pressure perhaps a bit closer to our north-west and a small chance of low pressure moving up from Spain, but most likely neither approaching by Wednesday.

Which means more very warm sunshine, perhaps into the quite hot category. Some cloud, but sunshine the main theme, temperatures somewhere between 24’C and 27’C.

Thursday probably stays very warm/quite hot, with sunny spells. Small chance of a thundery shower, it should be somewhere between 23’C and 28’C.

Things do become a bit more uncertain by Friday and into next weekend. The slightly more likely outcome sees high pressure remain in control but temperatures drop back a bit to say 20’C or so – a shower or two possible.

It may instead stay very warm – I would neither rule out a brief return to something cooler and unsettled – or rule out a short properly hot southerly, followed by a thundery breakdown.

I should get back to normal Monday/Thursday operations next week – this forecast is early as I’ll be travelling up north for “Christmas” tomorrow. A warm “Christmas” – feels almost as strange as a warm day in spring felt a week or so ago.…

Sunday 23rd May 2021

Weather forecast on a Sunday morning? Well, that makes a change – alas the weather doesn’t (yet) seem ready for a change with further rain and showers to come.

But maybe you should keep reading until the end of this forecast. That is a hint.

I know I have been shifting around the forecast days a bit recently – I realised that I’ll have a lot to catch up on at work tomorrow after a week off, plus I’m on call in the evening/overnight tomorrow, so figured it was sensible to do it now.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

Sunday starts rather cloudy with a few heavy showers – but also some hazy sunshine at times. Showers tending to fade by mid-afternoon, with a weather front bringing rain from the west from around 4/5pm – some heavy rain and perhaps a short spell of very heavy rain later in the evening before it clears. Around 13’C, winds becoming strong later. Rain clearing before midnight, mostly clear overnight, down to around 6’C.

Monday starts with the low pressure trough over us – though it should be the last for a while. Should. And yes that is another hint to keep reading until the end.

It will be another day of limited sunshine and lots of heavy showers, hail and thunder both possible – showers pretty much from the start of the day until the evening. Cool, 13’C tops. Further showers possible in the evening with a chance of an area of more general rain for a few hours overnight, down to around 6’C.

Tuesday is another day of limited sunshine and plenty of showers. Less showers than Monday but still plenty around, less heavy than Monday but still heavy at times. And a bit more sunshine too. 14’C. Fairly clear overnight, down to around 5’C.

By Wednesday we start to see high pressure trying to build to the west, but our low pressure trough will still be close to our east, centred over Denmark.

Overall a fairly mixed day, some sunny spells at times, plenty of cloud around and a general cloudy spell or two possible. Showers still possible too, though again a bit less likely than the day before. Temperatures picking up a bit too, 15’C, maybe 16’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 7’C.

Thursday starts sunny. Lots of cloud is likely to develop by midday but may break up at times later in the afternoon. Only a small chance of a shower, most likely staying dry. Feeling warmer, around 18’C. Mostly clear overnight, down to around 9’C.

Tentatively, Friday should be a decent spring day. Sunny spells, fair weather cloud – I cannot yet rule out the chance of showers or something cloudier as it is a fairly weak build of high pressure. Assuming a fair day, then somewhere between 18’C and 20’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 9’C.

By the weekend, we should be seeing high pressure continuing to build over or close to the UK. It isn’t nailed on yet – the position of the high pressure is still uncertain and therefore the chance of showers, the wind direction and cloud amounts.

However, broadly speaking, the bank holiday weekend should be at least fairly warm (perhaps very warm by Monday), fairly sunny and fairly dry.

Don’t get too excited as it will need a couple more days before I’m confident of this evolution, and even if it pans out as broadly expected there can still be cloud, cool winds and/or showers mixed in too.

But, it is the most optimistic I’ve been for a fair few weeks for some warm sunshine. Bring it on.

Next forecast will probably be Wednesday evening, as I’ll be heading up north the next day to celebrate Christmas…finally. And then I should get back into the usual Monday/Thursday evening groove.…

Wednesday 19th May 2021

Morning. More rain and showers to come over the next few days – likely settling down next week but still no sign of warmth.

Probably a shorter update than normal as I’m on holiday, using my old slow laptop – and I’m just waiting for others to wake up so we can go out. Believe it or not, it has actually been sunny and dry here in the Lake District – actually felt like late spring in the sunshine yesterday. And it will for us today – alas, not for you down south.

Thanks to Clare for the photograph – I haven’t had time to even look at them all let alone say thanks, there have been loads sent to me – and my slow laptop never helps.

Today starts cloudy with some rain. This will clear east fairly quickly, replaced by brighter skies but still plenty of cloud – then heavy showers will develop from around lunchtime onwards. Not impossible you miss them but most likely getting at least a couple, possibly very heavy with hail and thunder possible too. Around 15’C in limited sunny spells. Clear spells overnight though cloud thickening from the west later, down to around 6’C.

Thursday starts bright. Cloud will continue to thicken with outbreaks of showery rain from late morning onwards – mostly light or moderate, and brightening up again later. Windy, around 13’C. Windy overnight, showers possible.

Friday sees low pressure in charge. Winds will be strong, there will be plenty of showers all day – possibly merging into longer spells of rain in the afternoon and evening. Cooler, 12’C and just 10 days until summer officially starts.

Saturday sees this low pressure move east, as we await the next one – and possibly last for a while. Plenty of cloud, a bit of sunshine, still some showers around which could be heavy, 14’C at a push.

Sunday then sees the next low pressure system arrive. A band of rain will push east, timing uncertain but during the day with several hours of persistent rain. If during the morning, then expect heavy showers to follow. Quite windy asnd cool, 12’C.

Monday is another day of sunny spells and heavy showers. Hail and thunder possible, though a bit of sunshine too and perhaps getting to 15’C.

Will it ever end? Well, on Tuesday the weather will start to…I don’t want to say improve so I’ll say de-escalate. High pressure will start to build from the west, so there will be more sunshine but there will still be some scattered heavy showers and a northerly breeze. 15’C or so.

The rest of next week looks similar. High pressure to our west, low pressure to our east – we are stuck in the middle with a northerly flow which will mean temperatures around 15’C, some sunny spells but also some showers – generally less than of late but still around. Perhaps trending a tad warmer later in the week but I’m cautious.

The somewhat more likely outcome for the bank holiday weekend would see it fairly dry, fairly sunny and fairly warm – though something cooler and wet is still possible. You can have hope though.

June still looks like it will be settled – drier than normal but temperatures probably quite varied, with high pressure likely to be close to our west this will mean a return of cooler northerlies at times, though cooler northerlies can still be pleasantly warm enough in June. And there will be the chance of more notable warmth at times too.…

Friday 14th May 2021

More heavy showers. And cooler too.

Sigh. Is there any hope of warmth? Maybe in 10 days or so…but it has been maybe in 10 days or so for a few weeks now. A southerly tracking jetstream such as we have (the jetstream was pretty dormant in winter) is bringing this parade of low pressure troughs, is directed at France and we are on the cooler northern side – and means that until this shifts, we will keep getting low pressure systems.

However, there are suggestions that instead of coming at us (well…France) in a straight line, it should start to become more meridonal (wavy) by next weekend – that does not mean that we will suddenly end up warm and sunny as low pressure has to be somewhere, but it should mean the end to the slow procession of low pressure troughs.

Alas, we might end up in another northerly flow.

Thanks to Tara for the suitably moody photograph.

This evening will be fairly cloudy, still a small chance of a shower. Cloud will thicken overnight with rain arriving around 4am. Down to around 7’C.

Saturday morning will be cloudy with outbreaks of rain – probably nothing especially notable though the odd heavy burst possible. Some sunny spells follow but with widespread heavy showers, thunder, hail and torrential downpours possible. 16’C at a push. Heavy showers will fade in the evening, variable cloud overnight with a small chance of a stray shower, down to around 7’C.

Sunday sees our next low pressure trough over the UK.

Heavy showers pushing in from the south-west not long after dawn, sometimes merging into longer spells of heavy rain – other times a bit of sunshine. Torrential downpours, thunder and perhaps hail all in the mix. Cannot wait for my outdoor roast dinner. Cooler at 13’C. Showers slowly fading in the evening, variable cloud overnight with a small chance of a stray shower, down to around 5’C.

Surprisingly indoor dining Monday doesn’t greet us with a heatwave. Instead, it is more of the same, plenty of heavy showers developing, thunder possible – arguably a tad more sunshine and a few less showers, but not really much difference from Sunday. 15’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 5’C.

Tuesday similar though most likely there will be fewer showers and a bit more sunshine, but still a fair scattering of showers and they could be heavy. There is a small chance of general showery rain spreading across from the west – but only a small chance. Around 15’C, maybe a tad more. Clear spells overnight, down to around 7’C.

Wednesday sees our low pressure trough move east so it settles down a tad. Sunny spells, still a few showers around but not guaranteed to catch one and they should not be so heavy either. 15’C. Clear at first overnight but cloud thickening later – rain possible later.

Thursday sees the next low pressure system arrive on the scene. Yay.

Details a tad vague at this stage, but rain likely at some point with strong winds. It does look like it may also drag up some warmer air, so if we get some sunshine before/after the rain, then 16’C to 18’C possible.

There is a small chance this low pressure system could track further north and bring us a warm day with hazy sunshine – 10% chance at most.

Friday likely sees further heavy showers, thunder possible – with the chance of some general showery rain in the mix too. Somewhere around 14’C, give or take, with strong winds possible too.

Not certain yet, but next weekend looks more likely to see another northerly plunge, but with high pressure starting to build from the west. Which means some sunny spells, some heavy showers though less than earlier in the week, and temperatures somewhere between 11’C and 14’C – feeling rather chilly in the northerly wind too.

However, there is a small chance that we can get the same kind of scenario but without the northerly being so potent, and high pressure building in from the west more substantially, bringing something a bit warmer, say around 16’C to 18’C with some sunshine. Around a 20% chance – the colder outcome is more likely.

High pressure should feature more the week after, though the positioning could be anywhere – so temperatures could be anywhere from a chilly 10’C to 12’C, to a fairly warm 18’C to 20’C. I wouldn’t expect a dry week, but drier than the previous week or two.

Don’t shoot the messenger, though obviously I was forecasting a warm May until around two weeks before May started – at which point I was forecasting a warm second half of May.

Yes, I am still forecasting a warmer, drier and sunnier than normal June. Though, as you may understand, I’m now rather wary.

I wish you a good weekend.

Not sure when the next forecast will be. I’ve decided that it is too warm and sunny down here, so am going to the Lake District for a week. I guess I’ll write one either Tuesday or Wednesday at some point. Maybe I’ll have good news. Maybe.…

Tuesday 11th May 2021

Showery is the theme.

We’ve lost the cool Arctic air, we’ve lost the frost risk too. But we’ve gained a low pressure trough that will set up close to Ireland, bringing a showery flow – occasionally it will move through the UK…and be replaced by another.

So it will feel quite warm when sunny but you’ll always need an umbrella to hand.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

Tuesday morning starts rather cloudy with some showers, possibly heavy. The afternoon looks brighter with some sunny spells and only a very small chance of a shower – feeling quite warm at around 16’C. A small chance of a heavy shower in the evening, otherwise dry overnight with variable cloud, and down to around 7’C.

For Wednesday we still have the low pressure trough just to our west.

Starting with sunny spells, scattered showers will develop. Less showers than recent days so a chance of missing them and staying dry, but they could still be quite heavy. Sunshine becoming hazier as the afternoon goes on, and quite warm at around 17’C. Overnight looks mostly cloudy – an area of rain will be heading this way from the south-west as the trough starts to move east but there is a bit of uncertainty as to how it will track – I’d suggest either anything from a bit of showery rain, to several hours of persistent rain. Around 8’C.

Thursday is a bit uncertain due to the position of the overnight rain and associated weather front. It does look like either limited sunshine and heavy showers, or cloudier with more general showery rain. A rumble of thunder possible, and temperatures around 15’C, a tad less if cloudier. Further showers possible, if not probable, overnight. Around 8’C.

For Friday the low pressure trough will be more over France and Belgium – though its replacement will be heading in from the Atlantic.

Exact details have a bit of uncertainty, but broadly we are looking at limited amounts of sunshine and fairly widespread heavy, possibly thundery showers. Certainly possible for a bit more sunshine and less showers than this, but also possible for something cloudier with general showery rain. Temperatures roughly around 15’C – but could easily be 2-3’C either way. Showers slowly fading overnight – possibly some general rain arriving from the west later in the night, though timing uncertain.

Saturday sees the replacement low pressure trough arrive to the west of Ireland. This likely brings a spell of general rain some point late Friday night or during the first part of Saturday – followed by sunny spells and heavy showers, thunder possible. Quite warm in the limited sunshine between the showers, around 16’C. Variable cloud overnight, around 8’C.

Sunday looks like another day of sunshine and heavy showers. A bit more sunshine than recent days, but showers probably heavy or very heavy, and a moderate chance of some thunder too – perhaps hail. Quite warm in the limited sunshine, but I can see my outdoor roast dinner getting rather soggy. Around 16’C.

Believe it or not, the indoor re-opening of pubs and restaurants will not actually see an immediate improvement in the weather. Further heavy showers expected on Monday.

Likely still showery on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a more northerly (ish) flow as the low pressure trough moves east so feeling cooler again.

There is a window of opportunity for a short dry and warm spell either late next week or into the weekend – but given the general background signals for more unsettled conditions, this is a moderate chance at best.

Fairly likely that it remains changeable through to the end of May – further showers likely but some drier, sunnier and warmer days should be in the mix too.

I remain more hopeful for warm/hot and sunny weather in June, but the strong signal has weakened a bit – and there was a fairly strong signal that May would be warm and sunny until a few weeks ago, so I’m a tad nervous about it!

And I remain expectant of a mixed July and August. Oh well, at least we can go on holiday to the South Sandwich Islands.

Next full forecast will probably be on Friday. …

Thursday 6th May 2021

Finally I can offer you something warmer. But there is plenty of rain and showers to come also. Mwa ha ha ha.

Sorry. I guess the window of opportunity for things to warm up from around 7th May, that I’ve been talking about for a couple of weeks, is being taken – of sorts. However, low pressure will be close by, so though we lose the chilly northerlies, we are gaining rain and showers. But in between – there will be warm sunshine to be had.

Let’s crack on with some details – though it won’t take long to become uncertain.

Plenty of photographs this week and some really good ones too. Thanks to Peter for this.

Clear skies overnight, temperatures down to 1’C so a frost in some spots.

Friday starts sunny. A fair amount of fair weather cloud will develop, around a 40% chance of a shower too, but compared to late quite a pleasant day. 15’C. Clear spells at first overnight though cloud gradually thickening as the night goes on with rain arriving around 4am – give or take. Down to 3’C but temperatures increasing as the rain arrives.

Saturday sees a deep area of low pressure head our way, though stalling out west – this heralding a notable change in weather patterns.

Persistent and heavy rain all morning with fairly strong winds – however as the low pressure stalls to our west, it will also drag up warmer air from the south. The rain should clear north during the afternoon – a bit of uncertainty on this and possible that it keeps raining, but assuming it does, with some sunshine than 16’C to 18’C should be reached. Variable cloud overnight, a chance of some light rain pushing east, still quite windy, around 11’C.

Sunday is a bit vague in detail, but we’ll be under much warmer air than for some time. Something broadly quite cloudy, probably more so in the morning, possible bits of occasional rain – and there should be some hazy sunshine at times. Certainly could be sunnier than described or with more rain, but broadly as outlined. With enough sunshine, 17’C to 20’C should be reached. In the evening and first part of the night, there is around a 25% chance of importing some heavy downpours, perhaps thundery from France – more likely they’ll stay to our east. Otherwise skies clearing, down to around 10’C.

By Monday we’ll have lost the notable warmth, but it is still regime change. Sunny spells, though with low pressure close to our west, plenty of showers will develop – most places getting a couple and they could be heavy, with a small chance of hail and/or thunder. Quite warm in the sunshine, 16’C or even a tad more. Clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

Lower confidence by Tuesday. I think probably sunny spells with some showers possible, though lower chances than Monday. Temperatures somewhere between 15’C and 17’C so quite warm.

Details are really too sketchy from here. Low pressure is likely going to be somewhere over the UK or close by, though we should remain in mild/quite warm air.

More likely Wednesday, Thursday and Friday will be a case of sunshine and heavy showers, with temperatures somewhere between 14’C and 17’C – though a smallish chance of general heavy rain instead at some point, in which case temperatures closer to 12’C. No overnight frosts!

No confidence on any solution for next weekend or the week after – it could very easily stay unsettled, but with some warmish sunshine at times – or it could become more broadly settled and warm. Unsettled is the slight favourite.

Have a good weekend – enough the warmth but keep your umbrella handy!…

Monday 3rd May 2021

An unsettled week ahead – quite a mixture of weather with rain, strong winds, colder air, sunshine, showers all in the mix – and perhaps something warmer for the weekend. Though don’t get excited – warmer…but wet.

Thanks to Paul for the photograph – exactly what I required for this forecast.

There is a fair bit of uncertainty for both Thursday and the weekend onwards, so please do bear this in mind.

Monday starts bright but cloud will thicken as a rather deep area of low pressure for early May approaches. Rain from around 2pm onwards, perhaps a shower beforehand, continuing right through the evening, say until 10pm – it will be heavy at times, perhaps occasionally very heavy in the evening. Becoming windy with gusts of 50mph during the evening – enough for the odd tree, fence panel, etc to be blown down. 12’C. Winds remain strong overnight, though not as strong as during the evening hours, rather cloudy with the odd shower too. Down to around 5’C.

Tuesday starts with this low pressure system moving away to our east – pulling in a colder northerly flow.

It will be rather cloudy, the strong winds will remain to make it feel colder than the 12’C we should reach. And there will be plenty of showers, some heavy with a small chance of thunder. Sunshine limited, but there will be some sunny breaks, especially in the afternoon. Showers remain possible in the evening and first part of the night, but it will become mostly dry with variable cloud, down to around 3’C.

Wednesday is another showery day in the fairly cold northerly wind – though the wind will lessen as the day goes on. Some sunny spells but plenty of showers, some heavy or very heavy, thunder and hail both possible. Around 11’C but feeling colder. Skies clearing for a while overnight, though high/mid level cloud increasing later as the next low pressure system approaches. Down to around 2’C.

Thursday is a bit uncertain. Low pressure is set to head roughly in our direction, though there is a chance that it may be a bit further south. The most likely outcome, at around 75% likelihood, is a spell of persistent rain during the morning and early afternoon – brighter with showers to follow, and temperatures somewhere around a rather chilly 8’C. In May. If the low pressure system tracks a bit further south, the 25% chance, then expect something along the lines of limited sunny spells and a few showers, and temperatures around 11’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 2’C.

Friday looks reasonable in the context of this coming week. Some sunny spells, plenty of fair weather cloud, a couple of showers around so maybe a 50% chance of catching one, and temperatures around 14’C.

Details for the weekend (and indeed Friday night) are uncertain. The general picture is that low pressure will be moving in from the west – spreading some heavy rain across but also dragging some warm air up from the south.

One kind of broad view would be that the low pressure system crosses the UK during the weekend, bringing some heavy rain at some point, also some strong winds – but if the rain times overnight on Friday, then perhaps we squeeze an 18’C and some sunshine on the Saturday, with a chance of showers too – but then cooler for Sunday once the low clears.

Another broad view would be that the low pressure system stalls close to the UK or just to the west – some general rain probable at some point, but also increasing warmth with temperatures around 20’C (give or take), potentially rather humid, with some sunny spells – but also some heavy downpours/thunderstorms breaking out.

It is too early to know how the weekend low pressure system will behave – and whichever evolution it takes will likely determine the weather for the next week or two. The latter, warmer of the two routes gives an easier transition to more general warm weather – though I’d expect some heavy rain/showers at times too. The former outcome would mean more colder, Arctic-sourced air would be more likely to return, though that is likely a drier outcome – and eventually warmer later in the month.

It does feel like quite a pivotal weekend ahead. And a very interesting period of weather model watching this week.

I think it will take another couple of days to resolve this…next full forecast will be on Thursday evening but if I become convinced of the low pressure evolution before then, I will try to update you before then.…