Monday 19th April 2021

More pleasant weather to come this week – a bit cooler from Wednesday again, but plenty of sunshine overall.

Lots of photographs this week again – I assume because people are out and about a bit more since the re-opening? Sunshine helps also.

Tonight sees clear spells, down to around 3’C.

Tuesday sees more in the way of high/mid-level cloud, meaning that the sunshine will be more hazy than Monday, and generally more cloud bubbling up in the afternoon also – giving a 30% chance of an afternoon shower. It will be quite warm, 17’C – maybe squeezing 18’C. Fairly cloudy overnight – perhaps a spot of light rain by dawn as a weak weather front slowly creeps south, 9’C.

Wednesday sees high pressure still in control, though the overnight weak weather front will re-introduce cooler air.

Quite cloudy in the morning – some limited brightness – the odd spot of rain possible. Towards lunchtime sunshine amounts should start to increase, initially small-moderate chance of a shower or two, but as the afternoon goes on they will move south and sunshine amounts continue to increase. Cooler, around 13’C. Clear spells overnight – frost possible, especially in more sheltered spots, down to around 1’C.

Thursday looks reasonably sunny. A bit of cloud around at times, more so in the morning, but a pleasant day if not especially warm – 14’C at a push. Clear spells overnight, a frost probable for a short time, down to around 0’C.

Friday will be similar. Good spells of sunshine, a bit of cloud at times, and temperatures between 13’C and 17’C – just a bit of uncertainty on wind directions and hence maximum temperatures. Clear skies overnight – a frost possible.

Saturday should remain sunny. A bit of uncertainty on wind direction – somewhere between easterly and south-easterly so temperatures reaching somewhere between 13’C and 18’C. Also a low risk of importing some cloud from the North Sea if we do have an easterly, which would make temperatures lower – but a low risk at this point.

By Sunday the chance of importing low cloud increases – though uncertain at this stage. So it could either be cloudy all day – or a good part of it, and close to 10’C, or sunny for most of the day, and pleasant between 14’C and 16’C.

Next week likely remains mostly dry, probably at least often sunny – but temperatures uncertain. I don’t expect better than average, say between 14’C and 17’C – though a flow from a colder direction, say a return of the northerlies, is very possible – which would mean temperatures between 8’C and 12’C, with a few showers.

The mostly dry and often sunny conditions should last through May and June – some showers at times but dry more often than not. Nothing especially warm likely until after early May.

July and August still look mixed – no signals for any dominant pattern, other than a usual British summer mix.…

Thursday 15th April 2021

Staying mostly dry – but no sign of any warmth at all. Pleasant when sunny – mild, perhaps quite warm at best, but cool occasionally too.

Not the greatest weather for drinking and dining outdoors! Has anyone else taken advantage of our new-found freedom this week? I’ve been out both Tuesday and Wednesday, and I have to say that I have rediscovered a love for life – despite having to sit outside in the cold. Strange how after the first lockdown, it took me 3-4 weeks to be comfortable enough to go to a restaurant – this time I had no reluctance at all.

The signs for the weather over the next month or so are good – in terms of sunshine and lack of rainfall – though temperatures taking their time to impress, so hopefully we will have plenty of decent weather for outdoor socialising.

More photographs this week than I’ve had in the past two months put together! Not sure what happened there?! Oh yeah…snow. Thanks to Chris for the photograph.

Tonight will see plenty of clear spells, temperatures down to around 0’C or a little below, so a frost for most. Fog patches in places by dawn.

Friday continues the theme of recent days. Sunny to start, though perhaps some early fog to clear for some, then becoming mostly cloudy from around lunchtime. 11’C. Clear spells overnight, a frost probable, down to around 0’C.

Saturday starts sunny. Cloud will bubble up again, but less so than in recent days – still a fair amount of cloud though. 12’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 1’C with a frost in places. A small chance of fog in a few spots by dawn, but unlikely.

By Sunday we have a large area of high pressure over Russia and Scandinavia which remains our main influence, though weather fronts trying to push in from the west.

We cut off the chilly easterly, it will start sunny, though on the hazy side. Some cloud will bubble up but it will remain a pleasant day and reach close to 14’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 2’C so all but the most sheltered spots escaping a frost, a small chance of fog patches by dawn.

Monday stays dry with sunny spells – weather fronts to our west not able to make any progress. There will be some cloud, but generally fairly sunny. Squeezing into the quite warm category (for April), 15’C or a tad more. Fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 3’C.

Tuesday looks quite cloudy as the weather front to our west finally makes it (probably) – probably not much rain, if any, just a case of cloud – and some sunny breaks. Likely still quite warm, especially in the sunny breaks, 15’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, around 6’C.

Wednesday is a bit uncertain on cloud amounts – temperatures likely to be a bit lower, say around 12’C.

Annoyingly, by Thursday it looks like we might scrape a northerly breeze.

Not certain, we could end up with something quite warm, but the slightly more likely outcome is this chilly northerly breeze, pegging temperatures back to around 12’C – maybe even lower. Sunny spells likely either way.

By Friday things are increasingly uncertain. Likely dry, likely at least some sunshine – but the direction of the flow is uncertain – anything from a chilly 10’C to a quite warm 17’C feels likely, though the cool side of this range a little more likely.

Next weekend more likely dry with some sunshine than otherwise. Again temperatures uncertain – anywhere between a chilly 10’C and a warm 20’C possible, depending on how high pressure has orientated itself – though again slightly more likely on the cooler side of the range. Small changes in wind direction can make quite a large difference at this time of year – easterlies are generally warm in May, but generally chilly in April!

It likely stays dry through much of May, with chances of heavy showers towards the end of the month. It should warm up by the beginning of May (if not late April), but don’t be surprised if there is another cold northerly/north-easterly at some point. Good amounts of sunshine though.

Slowly life is getting back to normal. Slowly the weather is improving.

Have a good weekend.…

Monday 12th April 2021

Mostly dry this week (and probably next) but staying on the chilly side.

So this morning was a perfect example of me having taken my eye off the models – at least in the short-term as all I was looking at was the coming weekend and time after that, as I seek signs of warmth!

And then I woke up in the morning, saw some snow photographs on Twitter and was like…urgh. All winter during the cold spells that we had, I said that snowy surprises could turn up at short notice during the cold spells…yet I forgot my own advice during this cold spell.

Of course, this is a free service for you – I have lots of other things to do. I still just about enjoy writing my forecasts enough to keep doing them, and the little bit of community on the Facebook page is nice – though there is no way that I would start up something like this now from scratch. I’m kind of stuck doing it until something better replaces me…which may be decades away!

So please do bear in mind that this is a free service, I cannot always be on top of everything – this kind of mistake will happen again, perhaps more often in the future, especially if forecasting fatigue grows. I know most of you appreciate it. I know most of the time they are good. I don’t need any reassurance!

Thanks to Caroline for the photograph.

Tonight sees clear spells, some cloud, a frost for most. Down to around -2’C – a small chance of some mist/fog.

Tuesday sees high pressure over the UK.

The morning will see good spells of sunshine. Quite a lot of cloud bubbling up from around midday – a 30% chance of a shower or two in the afternoon, with limited sunshine. 11’C, maybe 12’C. Clear spells overnight, some cloud, a small chance of mist/fog in places and some places seeing a frost – down to around 1’C, or a tad below.

Wednesday morning sees a mixture of cloud and sunny spells. More cloud than sun in the afternoon, a small chance of a shower, say 15% chance. 11’C, maybe a tad more. Clear spells overnight, a frost likely for most as we import slightly colder air again, down to around -1’C.

Thursday sees sunny spells in the morning – again quite a lot of cloud for the afternoon with limited sunshine. A small chance of an afternoon shower and feeling colder in a light easterly breeze – 10’C. Clear skies overnight with a frost probable, down to around 0’C.

Friday starts sunny again. Lots of cloud bubbling up from around midday onwards with limited sunshine. 11’C. Clear skies overnight – down to around 0’C with a frost in places.

Subtle changes for Saturday – we cut off the cooler easterly flow and less cloud should bubble up than during the week. So more sunshine, temperatures still on the low side, but maybe up towards 13’C at a push, though closer to 11’C still possible. Chilly overnight – frost possible.

Sunday should stay dry and settled, with high pressure a bit less influential. Details a tad more uncertain by this point, but more likely sunny than recent days, and temperatures somewhere between 12’C and 16’C.

Next week broadly looks settled with high pressure close by. I wouldn’t be surprised if a weather front did push in from the north-west at some point during the week, with some rain – but most day I’d expect to be dry, with some sunshine. Temperatures uncertain, but more likely in the quite warm category. Something colder – or properly warm possible, but I’d say the range of 14’C to 18’C would be more likely.

And yes, I will be in a pub garden tomorrow evening.…

Thursday 8th April 2021

Well, it was less cold today but Arctic air is coming back – and yes, there is chance of a little wintryness again.

Thanks to Gary for the photograph.

Cloudy to start tonight – it will thin somewhat for a while, and then thicken again towards dawn. Down to around 2’C.

Friday will be mostly cloudy as a weather front slowly sinks south. The morning might see a bit of sunshine – a little showery rain too but not much. More in the way of showery rain in the afternoon, the odd heavy burst possible. 10’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, the odd spot of light rain possible – down to around 3’C.

By Saturday we are caught in the middle of milder air trying to push up from the south, albeit around a developing area of low pressure over France – and colder Arctic air trying to move down from the north.

The forecast is a pretty close call, though more likely it will be mostly cloudy with occasional rain – though it will depend on the exact position of the developing low pressure. A small, say 15% chance that it stays mostly sunny, colder with the odd shower, but 85% chance that we are just under the weather front. Cold, 5’C and a small chance that any remaining showery rain could even turn to sleet or wet snow in the evening. Wintry showers still possible overnight, particularly at first – cloud should thin as the night goes on and it will be cold with a frost possible, down to around 1’C – colder if cloud thins more than currently expected.

Sunday should start sunny, or maybe hazy. Cloud will bubble up with a fair scattering of showers – rain, sleet, snow, hail, thunder all possible – some heavy. Feeling cold in a northerly wind, 8’C. Clear skies overnight and frosty, down to around -3’C.

Beer garden re-opening day starts sunny. Cloud will bubble up with a scattering of showers in the afternoon – less than on Sunday, and of rain as we will have somewhat milder air in a weak westerly flow. 11’C. Clear skies overnight, a frost probable, down to around 0’C.

Tuesday again starts sunny. Quite a lot of cloud will bubble up, limited sunshine once it does. A small chance of a shower, 11’C. Clear spells overnight, still some cloud around – down to around 1’C with a frost in places.

By Wednesday it looks like high pressure will be loosely to our east – which is a much more favourable position for temperatures.

Uncertainty on cloud amounts this far away but I’d suggest more sunshine than cloud the more likely outcome. Feeling milder, 13’C – maybe a tad more. Chilly overnight, down to around 2’C.

Confidence reducing by Thursday, but more likely dry with some sunny spells and mild, perhaps quite warm – somewhere between 12’C and 16’C.

I think from this point there are several directions that the weather could go for Friday and into next weekend.

The slightly more likely one would see a vague southerly flow, dry, quite sunny, quite warm – somewhere between 16’C to 18’C. A close second more likely outcome would be a cooler south-easterly or easterly flow, dry, quite cloudy, say around 11’C. Another alternative, slightly less likely again would be a vague southerly flow but with a slack low pressure moving in from the west – so quite warm, some sunshine but some heavy showers too. And a reload of Arctic air remains possible also!

Roughly 40/30/20/10 in terms of splitting those chances down – the models were keen on keeping the cold northerly until near the end of the month until just two days ago (I wasn’t convinced and hadn’t changed my forecast), so things have changed for the better…unless you like it cold in April.

And signals for warm, sunny weather for May and June have strengthened recently. A recent change – only a week ago previous such signals had weakened quite a bit, so maybe there is still a bit of flux to come. But I remain hopeful for plenty of warm, sunny weather for the latter part of spring and early summer.

Have a good weekend.…

Monday 5th April 2021

The Arctic blast has arrived and we have a cold week ahead – unusually cold for April.

I hope you enjoyed the really quite pleasant day yesterday – I certainly did, was nice to be sat outside in the sunshine having a beer…and a roast dinner…for the first time this year. Hence why the forecast is this morning rather than the evening…as I suspect that I might be needing an early night!

Thanks to Andy for the photograph.

Monday starts with a weak weather front slipping south, with some patchy rain turning to sleet or snow – mostly light and also patchy so you may not see much at all. More sunshine in the afternoon, some cloud around, feeling cold in the northerly wind – 6’C at best. Clear skies overnight with a frost for all, down to around -2’C, still breezy.

For Tuesday we remain in the cold northerly flow – high pressure to our west, low pressure to our east.

It will start sunny but cloud will bubble up as the morning goes on, and there will be a few showers developing – they could fall as rain, sleet or snow – or a mixture, though more likely snow, especially if you catch a fairly heavy shower. That said, showers not likely to be especially widespread, so around a 50% chance of catching one or two. 6’C and feeling cold in the fairly strong northerly wind. Clear skies overnight with a frost for all, down to around -2’C.

Wednesday starts sunny. Cloud will gradually thicken from the west during the morning, and it will be rather dull in the afternoon – a small chance of a light rain shower. Still on the cold side, around 8’C, the wind lighter and more north-westerly in origin. A frost possible overnight, though will depend on cloud amounts – somewhere between -1’C and 2’C.

Thursday looks rather cloudy, though temperatures mixing out with some milder air as we temporarily lose the cold source. Some sunshine at times, more likely morning, but cloudy skies fairly dominant. 11’C. Mostly cloudy overnight with a weak weather front slowly spreading south, bringing a bit of patchy rain from the early hours onwards. Around 3’C, give or take.

Friday then sees the Arctic air try to push south again.

Most likely rather cloudy, a bit of sun at times and the odd shower. Around 10’C but feeling chilly as the northerly wind returns. Likely cold and frosty overnight, down to around -2’C.

Details uncertain for Saturday – though I do expect it to be cold, the question remains over sunshine amounts and the potential for showers. Broadly, something like cold and sunny in the morning, more cloud in the afternoon with the odd shower (perhaps wintry) seems the more likely broad pattern – but potential for sunshine all day (but cold) or even some rain spreading up from France instead. Around 8’C. Frost probable overnight.

The most likely outcome for Sunday is cold but broadly settled. Some sunshine, some cloud, a small chance of a shower and around 8’C.

Beer Garden re-opening day is most likely rather cold still – so if you have plans for outdoor drinking and dining at the beginning of the week, wrap up warm! I’m hopeful for a return to milder conditions during the week, possible quite warm or warm – but whether that is by, say, midweek, or the weekend, is uncertain. Well, it isn’t certain it will happen – but is the more likely outcome in my view.

Fairly weak signals for the latter part of April – drier and sunnier than normal is more likely, but temperatures are the big uncertainty – they will depend on where high pressure situates itself, and that could easily be in a cold position like this week for at least some of the time. And still some showers at times.

Enjoy the…erm…return of winter.…

Thursday 1st April 2020

So, it’s cooler in time for Easter. But it will be dry until Monday. There will be decent spells of sunshine. And Sunday should just about reach t-shirt with cardigan temperatures.

And the Arctic blast arrives for Easter Monday.

Thanks to…oh…all that sunshine and not one photograph received. I guess I’ll share one of my local area in NW London then.

Tonight sees variable amounts of cloud, temperatures down to around 3’C – there should be too much cloud for a frost.

Good Friday sees high pressure close by to our north-west, with a cooler north-easterly flow.

There will be cloud at times, especially in the morning, but also some decent spells of sunshine – those more likely in the middle part of the day. A cool breeze but reaching 12’C and not too bad really. Becoming cloudy again overnight, down to around 4’C.

Saturday starts cloudy. The cloud will break up to leave good spells of sunshine but some uncertain as to how long that will take – it may be sunny by lunchtime or it may take until well into the afternoon. Temperatures reaching between 10’C and 12’C. Some clear spells overnight with a frost possible – somewhere between 0’C and 3’C depending on cloud amounts.

For Easter Sunday we get rid of the cloud, so with long spells of sunshine and slightly milder air around it should be a reasonably pleasant day. Don’t get too excited – keep your jumpers and jackets to hand, 16’C will be pleasant enough for the time of year. Sunshine becoming hazy later in the afternoon. Some showery rain arriving by dawn, perhaps briefly very heavy – and perhaps falling as sleet or wet snow after initial rain. Around 8’C until the cold air arrives by dawn.

For Easter Monday we will be in a proper Arctic blast.

Early showery rain, sleet or perhaps wet snow will clear to sunny spells and wintry showers. How many showers there will be is uncertain – anywhere from none to many. They could easily fall as sleet, snow or hail – especially in any heavy showers so a temporary covering is possible – very temporary as the sun is fairly strong now. A small chance of thunder too. Around 6’C and feeling colder in a strong northerly wind. Mostly clear overnight, a widespread frost, down to around -2’C.

Tuesday starts sunny but frosty. Plenty of cloud will bubble up with a small chance of a shower or two – again, they could be wintry. 6’C in a cold northerly wind, though not so strong. Probably clear and frosty overnight, temperatures down to around -3’C.

Wednesday remains on the cold side. Probably quite cloudy, some sunshine, around 8’C or so. Frost possible overnight, depending on cloud amounts.

Thursday looks like low pressure will be spreading down from the north/north-west. Quite a bit of cloud, a bit of rain, windy – but less cold, say 10’C Cold overnight.

However, it looks like Thursday’s low pressure will have re-introduced colder Arctic air for Friday. Lower confidence by this point, but colder, say 7’C with a few showers – possibly wintry. Overnight frost very possible.

Moderate confidence for next weekend – currently it looks like high pressure will build from the west to bring dry weather, probably more sunshine, but still rather cool with overnight frosts very possible.

This is the somewhat more likely outcome – something colder with wintry showers, or cool and wet are the other plausible outcomes.

For Beer Garden re-opening week, I’m hopeful of reasonable dry weather and around average temperatures for the time of year, perhaps squeezing warm by the end of the week – but that is a long time away!

Generally for the second half of April I’m hopeful for more warmth and more sunshine – but still some mixed weather, some showers, some cooler days also.

May likely continues the mixed theme – a short cold northerly spell will be possible, more likely early on, some decent sunny days too, generally more likely first half – some showery day, more likely second half. Warm at times, not warm at other times.

That same kind of mixed theme currently looks like the most likely outcome for summer. There isn’t really a set likely pattern at the moment x month being warmer, x month being more unsettled. We will see warm sunshine, we will get short heatwaves, we will get showers and even general cooler spells.

Really the only strong signals for May onwards are for mixed conditions, but overall it should be a bit drier and sunnier than normal.

Enjoy your Easter weekend. Time for a glass of red wine for me. Well…a second glass.…