Gosh is it time to be writing my spring weather forecast already?
This means that I need a photograph. Usual rules apply:
Needs to have weather. Lots of different types of weather happen in spring but I try to use one which resembles the expected season’s weather.
Must be of the local area.
Must be landscape-orientated – not portrait. This is because portrait photographs don’t work with my website very well.
I tend to look for the one that most closely tells a story – so it might not be your interpretation of the “best” photograph.
I will be sending £10 to the charity of choice from whoever’s photograph I choose. But please make it non-controversial if I pick your photograph – you know what people like to argue about on the internet, especially politics and some a few well-known charities are very political. I like that I hardly ever need to delete comments and want to keep it that way.
The easiest way for me is to post on the Facebook post – but if you prefer you can send a direct message on Facebook, Twitter or e-mail me.
I feel like I normally have more to say…hmmm.
Spring forecast will probably be issued on Tuesday or Wednesday.…
Dry with some sunshine and broadly normal temperatures for the coming week, as we slowly creep towards spring.
Thanks to Deanna for the photograph.
Clear skies tonight and temperatures falling to around 1’C – a frost in some places. A small chance of a little mist/fog by dawn but unlikely.
Friday sees high pressure in control.
Long spells of sunshine with a bit of fair weather cloud in the afternoon. 11’C. Clear spells overnight, a frost in places, down to around 1’C.
Saturday again sees decent spells of sunshine. A bit more cloud around than Friday, but reasonably sunny. 11’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 1’C with a frost in places. A small chance of some fog patches forming by dawn also.
For Sunday we still have high pressure in charge. Any morning fog will clear to sunny spells – though likely more cloud than sunshine in the afternoon, and a light easterly breeze will take the edge off, around 10’C. A greater chance of fog developing overnight, or general low cloud. Down to around 3’C.
A bit of uncertainty for Monday – if fog has formed as I think quite likely then it will take a while to clear, perhaps remaining cloudy all day and temperatures will struggle to around 8’C. Otherwise sunny and 11’C. Chilly overnight, a small chance of fog.
Tuesday is fairly likely to see a return to more widespread sunny spells. Temperatures around 11’C, perhaps a shade more. Chilly overnight, fog possible.
For Wednesday we start to see high pressure migrate further north. A bit uncertain on weather details, but probably fair and around 12’C – a small chance of a weak weather front bringing a bit of rain – but also a small chance of it being sunny and very mild.
The most likely outcome after this, for Thursday, Friday and into next weekend looks fine but becoming colder. Nothing especially cold is expected – say 6’C by the weekend with overnight frosts – though something notably colder (or just plain normal) remains possible.
My Spring forecast will be issued shortly. Probably Tuesday or Wednesday next week.…
Thanks to Rosie for the photograph. I know, I normally don’t use sunsets/sunrises but I think I’m over-excited this evening about the prospect of being able to visit outdoors hospitality come April 12th.
Tonight sees some clear spells, though cloudy at first. A small chance of fog, down to around 6’C.
Tuesday sees high pressure to the south-east being the greater influence on our weather – low pressure to the west trying to push in.
Sunny spells, mild and becoming windy. More cloud in the morning than sunshine, and again later in the day. 13’C. Rather cloudy and windy overnight, some clear spells but limited, 10’C.
Wednesday sees hazy sunshine all day. A weather front trying to push in from the west but not able to make much progress so we’ll stay dry – well, I cannot totally rule out a light shower. Very mild, 15’C which will feel pleasant in lighter winds. Some rain overnight as the weather front moves through, but not much. Around 8’C.
Thursday starts rather cloudy – perhaps a bit of light rain still around from the decaying weather front. Sunny spells will follow, 11’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 1’C – a frost in places by dawn.
Friday sees high pressure over the UK. Good spells of sunshine and around 12’C. Clear skies overnight – frost or fog possible, down to around 2’C.
Saturday may start foggy but that will soon lift. More cloud than Friday but still should be some good spells of sunshine. Around 11’C. Fog possible overnight.
Sunday will be similar, some cloud, some sunshine, around 10’C.
Next week is most likely reasonably fine with average temperatures – somewhere between 9’C and 12’C, some sunshine – frost or fog possible overnight.
I’ve long said that I expect March and April to be mostly dry with high pressure in charge. I still expect that to be the case (at least until outdoor hospitality opens…and I am only half-joking there).
I also expected March to start cold, it won’t – the window of opportunity for a cold spells has been pushed back around a week and confidence is reduced, but still a fair chance of a notable cold spell, say second week of March. I am less confident than I was a couple of weeks ago on this though.
Gosh that was the easiest forecast I’ve done for months.…
A mild few days to come – not far from spring-like in the sunshine, but there will be cloud and rain at times too.
Thanks to Paul for the photograph. Swans, sunshine and a nice wide photograph.
Clear spells and chilly to start the night, down to around 3’C, though cloud gradually thickening through the night, wind strengthening and temperatures ticking up a tad.
Friday starts bright with some hazy sunshine. Cloud will continue to thicken and some light rain will spread from the west from around late morning onwards – mostly light and patchy. 9’C and windy. Windy overnight with occasional rain – but the main band of rain staying to our west. 11’C.
For Saturday we are in a mild south-westerly – a weather front very close to the west.
It’s a tricky call as to how far east the weather front will push, though likely at times in the morning there will be some outbreaks of rain. This should retreat west in the afternoon, allowing some brightness and increasing amounts of sunshine. Feeling mild, 13’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, the wind easing, around 9’C.
For Sunday the weather front creeps east again but as a much weakened affair. Some bits of light rain at times, but some brightness also, mild at 13’C. Remaining cloudy overnight – some showery rain possible, but uncertain at this stage. Around 8’C.
Monday may see some rain in the morning from the very slowly moving weather front, something more moderate – but uncertain at this stage. Sunny spells should follow, with temperatures around 11’C. Chilly overnight with clear spells – down to around 4’C, give or take.
Tuesday sees further mild air arrive from the south-west.
It will be quite windy but with weather fronts far enough north-west to allow some decent sunny spells, though possibly hazy. 13’C is realistic, but I wouldn’t rule out a 15’C.
Wednesday sees the weather front edge that bit closer, but again it should stay far enough west to allow for some sunshine, albeit likely hazy. With lighter winds, 14’C is possible – I wouldn’t rule out a 16’C.
Thursday probably sees what is left of the weather front move east, so more in the way of cloud, a bit of patchy light rain – but also some brightness and probably still very mild.
Friday and into next weekend probably see a more UK-based high pressure, so temperatures will drop to around normal, say 9’C, with overnight frosts possible – or fog. Probably sunny, but if there is overnight fog then this could be slow to clear.
Suggestions remain that early March will see some colder weather spread across from the east, though signals have weakened a little.…
Much milder this week, though with rain at times too. And possibly a taste of spring for this weekend and/or early next week.
Thanks to Kathryn for the photograph – I had some really good photographs sent in this week…but the sheep seem to be waiting for my weather forecast, so it could only be this.
Tonight sees some showery rain for an hour or two either side of midnight, then dry and fairly cloudy. 8’C.
Tuesday morning sees a band of showery rain cross – nothing especially notable. Some sunny spells follow, but one or two scattered heavy showers around later in the afternoon too – not everyone catching one. 11’C. Clear spells at first overnight, but cloud thickening with rain arriving roughly around dawn, or a bit earlier. 7’C.
Wednesday sees outbreaks of rain erratically spreading north. Not always raining, some drier spells, but generally fairly rainy – some heavy bursts mixed in. Around 10’C. The rain should clear north mid/late evening, to leave a dry night with variable cloud, down to around 7’C.
Thursday morning sees rain spreading east – a few hours of persistent rain. Sunny spells follow with a small chance of a shower, around 8’C. Clear spells at first overnight and rather chilly, down to around 2’C – cloud thickening later in the night.
Friday starts dry – perhaps bright. Rain will spread across later, it looks like it will be fairly light/moderate and patchy. Becoming windy too, around 10’C. Some rain possible overnight – not sure at this stage how close the weather front to the west will be.
Saturday starts to see a bit of a change with higher pressure developing to our south-east – and weather fronts more stationary to our west.
Where the weather front is positioned will be key – it could be over us bringing some rain, or close to our west keeping us mostly cloudy. Either way, mild.
But the slightly more likely outcome is that it is further west and we get some decent sunny spells – and in a southerly wind, 14’C, maybe 15’C is feasible – which is pretty springlike.
Sunday will again depend on the position of the weather front – and it will be in a similar position to Saturday, most likely. So a repeat of Saturday is most likely, though the spring-like conditions are the slight favourite.
For early next week it looks like high pressure will continue close to our south-east, allowing this flow of warmer air from the south.
Still a bit tentative – a slight change in wind direction from current projections could make temperatures rather average, but the most likely outcome is a couple of very pleasant spring-like days, temperatures between 14’C and 16’C – though I wouldn’t rule out an 18’C with perfect alignment.
Still a bit to go before it is definite, but a fairly good chance of some pseudo-warmth perhaps this weekend, but more likely early next week. And it is still February.
High pressure most likely stays on the scene into March and during much of March, though we’ll probably return to average temperatures with overnight frosts late next week, and could easily return to much colder conditions in early March, with snow showers possible.…
So a few more days of cold weather before the pendulum swings back to milder conditions – though with some resistance.
Amusingly 3 separate people sent me a photograph of the same frozen tree this week. Thanks to Kate, who’s photograph I used.
Tonight sees some clear spells, it will be frosty and down broadly to around -4’C, perhaps -6’C in a few spots.
Friday sees broken cloud in the morning, increasing spells of sunshine as the day goes on. Cold and quite windy, scraping to 1’C. Mostly clear overnight, still quite windy with a hard frost, down to around -6’C – even lower in a few sheltered spots.
For Saturday we have our high pressure block close to our east, weather fronts trying to push in from the west thanks to a rather large low pressure trough in the Atlantic.
Saturday starts sunny. Cloud will thicken somewhat as the day goes on with a weather front trying to push in from the west, but it will remain bright with hazy sunshine. Probably not getting above 0’C, and feeling colder in the wind. The aforementioned weather front should fizzle out by time it reaches here – but I cannot rule out a little light snow falling in the evening. Otherwise variable amounts of cloud overnight, down to around -2’C.
Sunday sees the wind veer more southerly and things will become less cold, albeit still feeling cold in strong winds. A weather front will arrive at some point, roughly afternoon time but feasibly morning or evening in play too. Possibly sleet, snow or even freezing rain at first, but fairly swiftly turning to rain. Quite showery in nature, this continues on and off overnight, and temperatures recovering to around 7’C.
By Monday we are in a much milder south-westerly flow. Quite a lot of cloud around, some sunshine, 11’C. Rain likely spreading up from the south-west overnight, around 8’C.
Tuesday is uncertain on details, though probably a spell of rain at some point, and still fairly mild.
From Wednesday and into the weekend, things should settle down once more. I don’t rule out some further rain, but mostly it should be dry with some sunshine. Temperatures starting mild (a small chance very mild and almost spring-like for a day or two…small chance), but most likely becoming fairly cold once more, if not quite as cold as at the time of writing.
Broadly speaking, the end of February and beginning part of March is more likely to be cold than otherwise – and snow could again be possible.
Very plausible that we end up with high pressure over Scandinavia and another blast of easterly winds and snow showers, or high pressure over the UK and it being generally cold and frosty.
High pressure currently looks like dominating March and April, so drier than normal, sunnier than normal – colder than normal at times, especially the first half of March – but warmer than normal at times also. I’m certainly more positive about spring from a temperature perspective than I was a couple of weeks ago, but still time for things to change further.
After the winter of doom, it is nice to be thinking about the possibility of sitting outside in the sunshine, in 5-6 weeks or so.
Spring is slowly on the way, but almost certainly further wintry weather beforehand.…
Well the cold spell has certainly started – even if you haven’t seen much in the way of snow.
Thanks to Adam for the photograph. Fog is about as close to a wintry scene that I can manage from your photographs!
Tonight will be mostly cloudy and cold – one or two light snow showers may make it this far inland. Windy, frosty and possibly icy, down to around -3’C.
For Tuesday we remain in this really cold easterly flow.
Mostly cloudy, cold and windy though some brightness at times. There remains a chance of snow showers, though a fairly small chance – it will depend on exact wind direction and whether any streamers set up through the Thames. Scraping 1’C. That small chance of snow showers remains in the evening and overnight, and cloud amounts reducing as the night goes on too. Down to around -3’C.
Wednesday sees a bit more in the way of sunshine, lighter winds and still a small chance of a stray snow shower getting this far inland. 2’C. Fairly clear skies overnight and lighter winds mean a harder frost – down to around -5’C, perhaps even lower.
Thursday sees a bit of a change as the Atlantic starts to make an effort to dislodge the cold block, causing the wind direction to turn more south-easterly.
Generally fairly sunny though some high cloud later. Quite cloudy overnight, down to around -4’C.
Friday remains cold. Most likely it will be bright with some cloud in the morning, and more sunshine later. But there is a small chance that a weather front may push inland during the day or night, from the west, bringing a bit of snow before it fizzles out – unlikely but worth a mention. Around 0’C. Cold and frosty overnight, down to around -5’C.
For Saturday we continue with the theme of milder weather trying to push in from the west but the cold block to our east is stubborn. It will remain cold, and most likely sunny – again I cannot totally rule out a weather front pushing in from the west bringing some patchy snow, but most likely the cold block holds and it stays dry. Around 0’C – the wind picking up once more too. Most likely cold and frosty overnight, down to around -4’C.
Similar on Sunday, the cold block should hold but those weather fronts edging that bit closer from the west. Uncertain on cloud amounts but suggestion that temperatures should pick up a tad in the southerly wind, around 2’C. Not often it is that cold in a southerly wind!
Next week is uncertain. The battle between the cold block and the milder, wetter weather will continue, but whether the cold block can hang on – or whether the milder, wetter weather (with significant snow at first) can take over, is uncertain.
I’d suggest that the cold and dry weather is the slight favourite at this stage.
I do expect much of the rest of February and early March to be cold and dry – there could easily be further snow too. Mild blips are possible in the week or so after mid-month, but the trend should remain mostly cold, often dry, occasional snow possible.
Fairly strong suggestions now that March and April will be drier than normal. Uncertain on high pressure positions, most likely orientated for colder weather for the first half of March, but as the sun strengthens in late March and into April, things will warm up – becoming warmer than normal at times.
My thoughts a few weeks ago were that spring would be colder than normal, but I feel now that the sudden-stratospheric warming event has properly flushed down to our level (hence the cold easterly) it has now swung the balance in spring to both spells of colder than normal weather and warmer than normal weather. I shall be issuing my spring forecast in a few weeks.…
So, those few fine snow grains earlier today in the wind met your expectations, right?
Safe to say, this was a forecasting flop. At least I downgraded the forecast last night and tried to lower expectations – there are certain other establishments, not to mention the media, who have done even more to set expectations far too high.
In retrospect, I think some cognitive bias crept in when I did the update last night as the models had mostly all shifted to very low snow levels.
So, you’ll all be amused to know that I still think there is a chance of light snow showers later this evening, overnight and tomorrow. I stress the word showers – they will be unpredictable as to where they will be, so you might get some snow, you might not.
If you look at the radar, you’ll see what are known as streamers – normally you’ll see showers moving across in bands, say west to east, but in streamers there is a constant trail of showers – in this case going north-east to south-west.
This is the kind of set-up that can bring some places several cm of snow, and a couple of miles away, nothing. I’m expecting these streamers to continue overnight and into tomorrow – though where they will set up is uncertain. Certainly Kent and similar eastern regions – this far west is debatable but we do have a ticket for the snow lottery.
Worth noting also that the chance of a breakdown to milder conditions this coming weekend is now much reduced – and after a notably cold week, a re-enforcement of the cold, from the east, is now the more likely option.
I’m not sure what to update you with, it hasn’t really changed much from my forecast on Thursday – though there is a slight downgrade to immediate snow prospects, but more or less as I wrote on Thursday.
Also the other difficulty is that the showery nature of the snow overnight – then the snow showers tomorrow, means that even in our fairly small region, different people will have very different amounts of snow.
The further east you are, the more likely you are to get more snow – especially if you are, say, Ascot, Bracknell, Windsor, etc. This isn’t linear – places further west could get more then places further east. North a slight advantage, hills a slight advantage – but east generally best.
So, no, I cannot tell you how much snow you will have in your back garden!
What I do know is that showery rain is pushing west currently – it probably clears west by late evening, perhaps turning to sleet but probably not snow.
Then after midnight, further rain/sleet will push west – it may struggle to get this far west, but it should turn to snow if it does. Some places probably won’t see snow overnight, but some will, especially further east with say around 1cm by dawn. It is feasible that some heavier snow pushes this far inland overnight, so I cannot rule out 1-3cm more widely – but keep expectations low for overnight.
Sunday will see occasional showery snow pushing west at times – the bulk of it will remain towards London, especially Essex and Kent, but at times it will get this far west – I think perhaps there is a signal for a greater chance in the evening that at any other point.
Again, keep your expectations under control – you may miss the showers in your location, but broadly speaking, 1-2cm is realistic by midnight. Could be more – could be less, and different areas in the region will have different amounts. It will be cold and windy – around 1’C at best and feeling much colder.
Monday and Tuesday will see further snow showers pushing in from the east – quite how many will get this far inland is uncertain and won’t be known until very close to the time.
More likely cold and dry until weather systems try to push in from the west later in the week which could bring more general snow – but this is all highly uncertain – maybe the cold and dry air will stop weather fronts even getting this far.
Don’t be surprised if temperatures don’t get above 0’C some days this coming week, and they will be below overnight. It really is going to be a notable cold spell and could well last 2-3 weeks, perhaps with a mildish blip next weekend but that is uncertain.
The cold spell is on. Nailed on. It could end up being one of those talked-about spells for years to come.
We shall see. Severity is still to be established. Quite how cold it will get is uncertain, quite how much snow we’ll get is also uncertain. How long it will last is uncertain. When it will snow after the initial Sunday spell is also uncertain.
Lots of questions. I shall try to give as best a guide as I can.
But first, some rain. And thanks to Paul for the very wet photograph.
Oh and I appreciate that severe weather is problematic for some people. Weather will do what weather will do – I don’t control it. As a weather fanatic, I look forward to the extremes so please do excuse my excitement if you feel it misplaced.
This evening sees quite a rash of showers, some heavy. These moving north-east and it will be mostly dry after midnight, or an hour or so after. Around 6’C.
Friday sees low pressure over Ireland.
Early cloud will clear to sunny spells. Some showers will push across from the west, more likely in the afternoon and they could be heavy. No guarantee of one, but more likely catching a couple. 10’C. Overnight the low pressure starts to shift south a bit, and a weather front will start to form roughly over us – exact location isn’t certain so there could be some showery rain, or not, depending as to whether we are under the fairly thin weather front. Fog possible if not raining, down to around 4’C.
Saturday sees this low pressure move south and be consumed by the low pressure moving up from Spain. There will be showery rain at times, tending to become more persistent from the east later in the afternoon. Around 7’C but an easterly wind will pick up and it will feel colder. Have I built the suspense well?
Saturday evening continues the theme, further rain spreading west, the colder air creeping south, the easterly wind strengthens – the rain will turn to sleet and then snow – say by around midnight, give or take a few hours.
It is feasible that it fizzles out without giving much snow, but more likely it continues to snow on and off overnight – accumulations of around 1-2cm would seem reasonable. Around 0’C.
For Sunday we are in the easterly with low pressure very close to our south-east.
Quite how far west the snow will get on Sunday is uncertain – assuming there remains a weather front then it should be this far west, quite a bit further west in fact. But, there is still a small chance that we remain cloudy and cold, with the odd snow shower.
The more likely outcome sees general snow or showery snow. Accumulations of 2-5cm realistic – more not out of the question. 1’C at best but a rather biting wind-chill. Snow showers remain possible overnight, though the extent is highly uncertain right now, away from the east of England anyway. Down to around -3’C but feeling much colder.
Monday will be cloudy, cold and windy. Snow showers possible but I don’t know whether they will get this far inland. 1’C at best, perhaps not even above freezing though. Similar overnight, down to around -2’C.
Tuesday remains mostly cloudy, cold and breezy. A small chance of further snow showers. Cold and cloudy overnight, down to around -2’C.
Wednesday probably dry with some sunny spells. Cold, 1’C.
Thursday may see the first attempt from the Atlantic to bring milder air in – but if it does, then it will likely be a spell of snow, or snow eventually turning to rain.
Anything after that is uncertain – the general theme will be milder and wetter air trying to move in from the south-west, colder air trying to block it.
Where the mild and cold air masses meet there will be significant, disruptive snowfall. That could be here – or it could be further north. Impossible to say.
Certainly when the “milder” air first arrives, it will fall as snow. It may take a couple of attempts to bring milder air in with rain – it might not even win out at all. And if milder air does win, I’d expect further cold air to push back south again – it may be a very brief victory for mild.
A very interesting spell ahead. Didn’t get too excited, did I?…