Thursday 28th January 2021

And on goes the battle between cold and mild.

Thanks to Milica for the photograph from last weekend – yes I’m using another snowy photograph. And indeed, there is another chance of snow this weekend – though much more marginal than it was last Sunday.

Tonight starts cloudy and mild, a band of rain – some heavy, will cross roughly between 9pm and midnight. Quite windy, around 11’C.

Friday morning sees a cluster of showers pass through for a couple of hours, it will brighten up afterwards – but always more cloud than sunshine, and a stray shower possible. Mild, 11’C. Overnight, a very weak weather front tries to push down from the north, attempting to bring colder air and a spot of rain – but is rebuffed by mild re-enforcements from the south-west, which will bring more persistent and heavy rain from around 3am, give or take. Around 6’C.

Saturday starts wet with this weather front over the south of England – it is trying to move north but gets stuck as the cold air to the north moves down. And during this process, it will turn to sleet and possibly snow at times.

It is another very marginal call, if pushed then I’d see it is more likely we’d see some snow falling, but a general wintry mix – some rain, some sleet and some snow. There’s a risk of small accumulations, but likewise on the flip side it could just be mostly rain. Around 3’C. The band of rain/sleet/snow will weaken as the afternoon goes on and sink back south. Cold and frosty overnight, ice possible, down to around -2’C.

Sunday is an even more impossible call. It should start cold with hazy sunshine – but the next low pressure system will be attempting to advance.

I’m not yet sure on the track – very feasible it stays to our south, perhaps the slightly more likely outcome and we’ll just be cloudy and cold, around 4’C.

However there is a fair chance that it will make inroads and bring some sleet or snow – though if it does, the more likely outcome is that it would turn to rain.

But really, an impossible call right now.

Monday’s weather depends on what happened on Sunday, however the slightly more likely outcome is something chilly or cold, fairly cloudy and fairly dry.

You can see just how close the mild and cold air is to each other – and why this is so difficult to call!

Tuesday should see the milder air win out once more, with a band of rain – heavy at times, crossing the UK, perhaps briefly preceded by sleet or snow. Followed by sunshine and showers. Around 11’C – assuming the mild air has won…I don’t have full confidence at all.

Wednesday most likely mild, with some showers. Around 10’C.

At some point I’d expect much colder air to spread back from the north or east – perhaps as early as Thursday, but more likely from Saturday or Sunday. More likely cold and dry, wintry showers possible but more of a stress on dry.

Often cold during February, snow will remain very possible – I’d be surprised if it didn’t snow again this winter. Still uncertain as to whether we’ll get a more lengthy cold/very cold spell, or continue with a similar pattern as to now, often cold but with milder and wet interludes – and with sleet/snow on the boundary of the two air masses.

Expect lots more uncertainty. Most interesting winter for forecasting for a while – in my opinion since 2013. You could argue 2018 as that was a classic SSW response, bring the Beast From The East – but that didn’t happen until the end of winter.

Have a acceptable weekend.…

Monday 25th January 2021

So I hope you enjoyed the snow. I’d be very surprised if it is the last time this winter that you get snow on the ground, let alone falling. But it is going to turn milder during this week.

Thanks to Em for the photograph – I haven’t read all the messages and comments – 363 comments the last time I looked! Normally I would, but just been too busy the last few days. So there are a lot of photographs that I haven’t seen – and I could even have been persuaded to use a sunrise photograph, given how stunning sunrise was yesterday.

Tonight will be cold, frosty and icy – down to around -3’C. Cloud thickening from the west later in the night.

Tuesday sees rain spreading across. Arriving mid-morning, light and patchy for the morning, some heavyish bursts in the afternoon but still very sporadic. Still on the cold side, 5’C, breezy later too. Still some light rain in the evening, mostly dry overnight – rather cloudy with a few clear spells, around 6’C.

For Wednesday, the ongoing battle between mild air to the south-west and cold to the north/east can be seen clearly.

The milder air will be winning, generally mostly cloudy and around 8’C. Some patchy rain later in the afternoon. The rain becomes heavy and persistent in the evening and tries to push further north-east – though at the same time the colder air tries to push back. Really quite a wet night – temperatures probably close to around 8’C still, but something milder, say 11’C possible – likewise something colder, say 4’C possible – those two air masses very close together.

Thursday starts wet. The rain band will very slowly push north-east – struggling to make inroads, but as the morning progresses the rain will become lighter and patchier – the should be some brightness before the day is over. Proper mild air should win out, with temperatures around 12’C – but some uncertainty remains on this. Further heavy rain overnight, and still mild.

Friday most likely sees further showery rain – though any further details are uncertain at this point, as I’m not yet sure where weather fronts will be – but they should be close enough for showery rain at some point. Generally fairly cloudy and mild, 10’C, some brightness at times possible and fairly breezy. It looks like colder air then spreads south again overnight – if any weather fronts remain then rain could turn to sleet or snow – but that is highly uncertain at this stage.

The most likely outcome for Saturday is cold with sunny spells – a small chance of a wintry shower. Though not with especially high confidence. Frost likely overnight.

Sunday is highly uncertain. Weather fronts will be trying to push in from the west – and at this stage it isn’t certain when they will arrive. If forced to, I’d suggest it is slightly more likely to stay dry and cold for Sunday.

When weather fronts arrive, either Sunday or Monday, there could be a spell of snow before it turns to rain.

Next week should be back in the milder air – with further heavy rain and perhaps strong winds also. Yet the cold air will remain close, so there could easily be a day or two of snow air – and should that happen, some snow could precede the next set of weather fronts when the milder air pushes in again.

After next week, the chance of more notable and lengthy cold weather will increase – and possibly could be from the east.…

Saturday 23rd January 2021 – Snow Update

So the snow event for Sunday is on – but there remains some uncertainty on details.

The band of snow will cross west to east in the morning, I think roughly 9am to 11am – but it could arrive as early as 6am or as late as 11am – quite a wide range for just 12 hours away.

The most likely outcome is that it falls as snow, with 2-3cm expected, probably quite heavy for a time. However, there could be some rain or sleet mixed in – a small chance, but if so, then expect more of a slushy covering. On the flip side, it could instead snow for longer as the system pivots – 5cm or more cannot be ruled out either.

The pivot that I mentioned will see the band of snow to our north (exact location uncertain) before then pushing south in the evening – so a further spell of snow (probably…could be sleet or a wintry mix instead), probably fairly light at this point.

It’s all very marginal – marginal in favour of snow but marginal all the same. As I mentioned, the most likely outcome sees 2-3cm of snow – but it remains possible that you could get very little, or a slushy mix instead. Enjoy…or not!…

Thursday 21st January 2021

So we are back in the cold, and there are more marginal call rain/snow events to provide some forecasting fun. Or forecasting frustration.

Thanks to Paul for the photograph.

This evening starts cloudy, you might just get a splash of rain from a weather front skirting the southern counties of England. Overnight will be clear, breezy with a frost for most, down to around 0’C.

Friday morning will see good spells of sunshine. Some more cloud in the afternoon, one or two scattered showers though many places missing them. 6’C. A chance of a wintry shower in the evening (birthday present for me?), then overnight will be cold and frosty, though a fair amount of high/medium level cloud also. Down to around -2’C, a small chance of some icy patches, and also the odd fog patch by dawn.

Saturday sees low pressure in control to the north-east of the UK, with a cold flow circulating down from the north-west.

Hazy sunshine to start, but as the day goes on there will be more in the way of sunshine, with some fair weather cloud. Cold, 4’C with a small chance of a wintry shower. Clear spells at first overnight with a frost, cloud thickening somewhat later in the night. Down to -3’C – perhaps quite a bit lower in sheltered spots.

Sunday is uncertain, but there is a reasonable suggestion that a trough feature will develop and track east – if it does then I’d fancy it to fall as snow for 1-2 hours – and if it does fall as snow then it should settle, perhaps 1-3cm.

However – it is uncertain, it is a little feature that could very easy track further south than currently suggested, or perhaps have a slight mild core causing it to be rain/sleet, or just not actually develop at all. The slight favourite, is for a short spell of snow, more likely during the morning – but timing is uncertain also.

Otherwise Sunday will be quite cloudy, but often bright with some sunshine. 4’C. Clear spells overnight so frosty, down to around -3’C. Should there be snow cover, it could be a bit colder and ice will be a problem too.

Monday remains cold. It should be dry, with sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud, 4’C. Clear spells at first overnight, frosty, down to around -2’C. High cloud arriving from the west later in the night.

Tuesday sees a start of a change to milder and wetter conditions. Starting bright and cold, cloud will thicken with rain crossing during the afternoon – perhaps a bit of sleet or wet snow to start, but most likely rain. Around 5’C and breezy. Variable cloud overnight, around 6’C.

Wednesday sees the milder, south-westerly flow start to gather more steam.

Fairly cloudy, rain and strong winds arriving at some point – most likely late in the day or evening. 8’C.

Day to day details from here are not possible, but the general pattern will be a mild south-westerly flow, often cloudy, with strong winds and rain at times. It might even reach the giddy heights of 14’C next Friday/Saturday with some very mild air tucked in (perhaps 20’C in Madrid – home of that huge snowstorm the other week).

Most likely it turns colder again after next weekend. And then probably back to mild and wet…then colder…then mild and wet. That kind of switching pattern.

Up in the stratosphere, if you follow me enough, you’ll know that there was a sudden stratospheric warming event on 5th January. They often bring lengthy very cold spells to the UK, roughly from 2-4 weeks after, though not always and the timeline isn’t a set pattern either.

These lengthy very cold spells (ie Beast From The East in 2018) are more likely to happen if the SSW causes the stratospheric polar vortex to split. The SSW from 5th January did not cause it to split – it displaced it and weakened it. Hence no lengthy, very cold spell within the 2-4 weeks since 5th January.

However, models are now suggesting a second SSW event at the end of the month, causing a split. So, cautiously, I’d suggest a lengthy, cold/very cold spell is possible from around the middle of February. Even if the second SSW event doesn’t happen, the original SSW can still influence our weather patterns for possibly some months after, so either way further cold spells are likely in the coming months. And yeah, that includes spring.

Have a good weekend, I will update on Sunday’s snow chances Saturday morning at the latest.…

Monday 18th January 2021

Back to wet. Back to reality.

We stay in the similar pattern of late, with alternating colder, drier and milder, wetter air sources – though cold remains the dominant theme.

And wherever the boundary between the milder, wetter air and the colder, drier air happens to be will see some significant snowfall. This boundary is always more likely to be further north than us, but we are in the game. Like it or not, we have a ticket to the snow raffle.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph – evidence that it did snow down south this winter!

This evening and overnight will see showery outbreaks of rain spreading from the west – rain more persistent around midnight and in the few hours after. Windy and becoming milder too, 10’C by the end of the night.

Tuesday sees milder weather to the south/south-west – colder weather to the north, low pressure stuck in between.

Tuesday will be rather cloudy and windy. Some brightness at times but fairly limited, some bits of rain also but nothing of note. 10’C. Later in the afternoon and into the evening, more general showery rain spreading across again from the west. Strong winds too, 10’C.

Wednesday remains cloudy, mild and windy, with further showery rain on and off all day – some light, some heavyish. 10’C. The rain becoming heavy or very heavy for a spell either evening or overnight before it clears – clearer and colder air following, down to 3’C.

For Thursday we are back in the colder air, though nothing especially so yet at 8’C. Starting sunny, cloud will thicken somewhat as the day goes on – perhaps a bit of rain by late afternoon but uncertain if it will get this far north. Still a chance of a bit of rain in the evening, but becoming clear overnight – down to around 0’C with a frost for some.

Friday sees us in a slack northerly flow. Sunny spells, a small chance of a shower, 6’C. Probably dry overnight – fog and/or frost possible.

The weekend remains cold but details are otherwise uncertain. Areas of showers could cross at some point, more likely rain but sleet/snow possible instead. Temperatures between 3’C and 5’C by day, frost likely overnight, ice possible.

Most likely the colder air hangs on for another day on Monday, before milder weather with some wind and rain spreads up from the south-west either Monday night or during Tuesday.

And then at some point next week, colder weather should spread back down from the north. And then it will go mild again…then cold again…you get the picture I’m sure!

I do think as we get into February, milder, wetter spells will probably last longer than colder, drier spells – and I expect a trend to drier (and mild?) by the latter part of February.

I am also increasingly confident that the SSW event that occurred on 5th January will not lead to Beast From The East conditions – the stratospheric polar vortex is weakened rather than split, and without it being split, I think Beast From The East conditions are much less likely. That is my reading of it anyway. Further stratospheric warmings are possible, so a split to the weakened vortex could happen further down the line but nothing is imminent in terms of chances of a post-SSW severe cold spell like 2013 or 2018.

Perhaps the eventual outcome from the SSW event will be a colder than normal spring? It’s pencilled into my expectations but more time and research required.…

Thursday 14th January 2021

The battle between cold and mild continues – though cold will mostly win for now. Expect a bit of everything that is usual for the time of year over the next week or so – and yes, there is another marginal rain/snow event…the joys of forecasting!

No photograph this week.

It will be fairly cloudy tonight, any early light rain will fade, a frost in places, the odd pocket of fog, but mostly just cloudy and cold. Down to around 0’C, some ice possible.

Friday starts rather cloudy, but with some brightness. Cloud generally will lesson, more in the way of sunshine, albeit hazy as the day goes on. Cold, 4’C. A frost at first overnight, down to around -2’C, but temperatures pick up a tad overnight as cloud thickens with some light…rain…arriving before dawn as a weather front arrives.

Saturday sees this weather front bump into the cold air, and it is certainly possible that we see a spell of 1-2 hours of sleet or snow in the early part of the morning, perhaps a temporary slushy covering. Very marginal, as it always has been this winter, but I think more likely than not. It will turn back to rain fairly quickly, and clear by mid/late afternoon. Around 6’C by time the rain has cleared. Variable amounts of cloud overnight – probably too much cloud for a frost, down to around 2’C.

Sunday sees a ridge of high pressure over the UK. Some sunny spells, albeit generally quite hazy. 6’C. Variable cloud overnight, a frost in places – down to 0’C, give or take.

Monday sees low pressure approaching from both the south-west, and north – the former with the mild air and the latter with the colder air. The milder air wins this time.

Monday itself looks dry, some sunshine, some cloud. Sunshine generally rather hazy. 6’C. Overnight sees some rain, freshening winds, and a tad milder, 8’C.

Tuesday looks windy with rain at times – some heavy. Some dry spells in between. Windy in a fairly mild south-westerly – 10’C. Outbreaks of rain still possible overnight – uncertain as to when the low pressure clears east.

For Wednesday, a cooler flow from the north-west takes back over. Sunny spells, probably dry – just a very small chance of a stray shower, around 6’C. Breezy also. Chilly overnight – at the moment it looks most likely to be too windy for a frost. Around 2’C.

Thursday looks cool and windy – sunny spells, a small chance of a stray shower. Around 6’C.

Probably cold or fairly cold for Friday and into next weekend.

That’s about as far as I can go with reasonable confidence – everything is very much up in the air for medium-term weather forecasting thanks to the sudden-stratospheric warming event from 5th January, which is still not fully resolved or understood in terms of its implications for the troposphere (our level of the atmosphere).

What I do know is that the polar vortex did not split – like it did in 2013 or 2018 – it was merely displaced and significantly weakened.

So my best reading at the moment is that the chance of a “Beast From The East” type event is low. However, the chance of further cold weather from the north, similar to what we’ve been seeing over the last few weeks is quite reasonable.

Generally, I think the most likely outcome for the next few weeks is something similar to the current pattern of cold weather trying to push down from the north, milder air (with rain) pushing up from the south-west. Where the two air masses meet, there will often be significant snowfall but that is more likely to be north England or Scotland – but it still could happen at our level.

I’d suggest therefore that wetter than normal is most likely in the medium term, and generally becoming milder more often as the pattern tends to shift north – to the point for the latter part of February where we are fairly dry and probably mild, with the rain to our north.

There is high uncertainty however, so I’m low in confidence. I’ve seen model output with 14’C daytime temperatures for 2 weeks time – and also output with -5’C daytime temperatures! Make of that what you will. My assumption is that the SSW is playing havoc with the models, and I’m not too trusting of them at the moment.

I do also have a suspicion that the SSW may imprint on our weather patterns into spring, and lead to more northerly flows than normal – ie more cold weather in spring. Sorry. But as I said, very low confidence of anything going into the future.…

Wednesday 13th January 2021 – Rain Update

Just a little update on the rain and possible back-edge sleet/snow.

Rain will become persistent again late evening and at times overnight, some heavy. Further rain will continue at times tomorrow – sometimes light, sometimes heavy.

By mid-afternoon, there is a reasonable chance that it will turn to sleet or wet snow. There’s still a fair range of uncertainty – the rain might be too far east by time it “could” turn to sleet/wet snow, or it could have faded and be too light, by time the colder air digs in. Or maybe

But still, I think there is a fair chance of some sleet or wet snow falling as the rain clears, most likely somewhere between mid-afternoon and early evening. Height an advantage as always, and the further north and east you are, again a slight advantage.

I would be surprised if anything settled. It’s all very marginal, but very slightly marginal in favour of at least seeing some wintriness fall.…

Monday 11th January 2021

So we are in a bit of a battle between somewhat milder air to the west, and colder air to the north and east. Milder air (with rain) will win temporarily to start the week, but colder air will quickly return. And then it gets complicated.

Of course, where rain meets cold, it can turn to snow. For us down here it is unlikely – the battleground should, this week at least, be further north – say midlands or north of England.

Again, tricky forecasting this week – mild and cold air will be fairly close to each other, so the difference of say 50 miles could make a great deal of difference to the weather – and 50 miles a few days out in atmospheric terms is really quite tiny. So don’t be surprised if some of this is wrong.

Thanks to Laurie for the photograph of a frosty scene from last week.

Tonight will be cloudy with outbreaks of rain spreading down from the north – more persistent in the early hours. 8’C.

Tuesday starts cloudy with a bit of patchy rain. This will clear south, and slowly the sun will increasingly shine.

Starting quite mild at around 9’C but colder air filtering down from the north during the day and temperatures will drop to around 4’C by mid-afternoon. A frost to start the night, down to around -1’C, but cloud will thicken with some patchy light rain from the early hours, and temperatures tick up a bit.

Wednesday morning start cold and wet, the rain becoming heavier and more persistent. As the morning goes on, the rain edges east, temperatures increase as the mild air probably arrives, up to around 10’C. I say probably for the mild air, as it is a close call – on current modelling it will be around 3’C just 40-50 miles to our north-east. The rain also becomes generally patchier and lighter in the afternoon.

During the evening, the band of more persistent rain edges west – or perhaps technically backfills, so further persistent and fairly heavy rain is likely – but again some uncertain on how far west, though I think we should expect it. Probably still in the milder air overnight, but uncertain.

Thursday is likely to see further rain at times, some heavy, as the weather front erratically moves east. It could easily rain for much of the day – clearance time is very uncertain, and there is a small chance of a little back edge sleet or wet snow before it clears – SMALL chance! Temperatures uncertain, more likely in the mild sector to start, say 9’C but dropping later in the day. Cloudy and cold overnight, the odd spot of light rain possible at first, down to around 2’C. Fog possible.

For Friday we are back in cold and dry. There should be some sunshine, but don’t expect too much. Around 5’C. A frost possible at first in the evening, depending on cloud amounts, but cloud thickening as the night goes on and temperatures picking up a tad.

Confidence significantly reduces for the weekend, but the most likely outcome is:

Saturday sees rain crossing. It should be rain, but some wintriness either before or after rain cannot be ruled out. Uncertain on weather front timing and temperatures at this stage.

Sunday dry with some sunshine. Cool or cold, somewhere between 5’C and 8’C.

The most likely outcome for next week is to see cold air spreading down from the north again. Too early to be certain and too early to know whether there could be snow in the mix, or whether just dry. It could well be very, erm, interesting.

Also worth noting by which point we would be 2 weeks from the sudden stratospheric warming event on 5th January, and we often get significant cold spells starting somewhere between 2-4 weeks after. Whether this is a response from the SSW, or is just a continuation of the previous weather patterns I have no idea.

Until the fallout from the SSW is determined, there is no point really in looking further ahead. Even 5 days away is tricky in post-SSW circumstances, let alone a couple of weeks or a couple of months as I like to do.

I wish you an acceptable week.…

Thursday 7th January 2021

Staying cold. But a bit less cold at times.

Thanks to Caroline for the photograph. Much shorter introduction this time, huh?

Mostly cloudy and cold tonight, some mist or freezing fog in places, a small chance of a light snow shower and down to around -3’C.

Friday starts cloudy – some freezing fog in places. Generally staying cloudy all day, a small chance of a sleet or snow shower, which could give a very slight covering – but no higher than a 20% chance, most showers should be further north and west of our area. A little brightness at times in the afternoon. Around 2’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around -3’C, so frosty, perhaps icy, with freezing fog forming in some places also.

Saturday sees high pressure trying to squeeze in from the west.

Good sunny spells once any fog clears, and around 4’C. Clear and frosty overnight, down to around -3’C – perhaps colder, especially in more sheltered spots. Freezing fog a risk again.

Sunday may start foggy, but this should clear into sunny spells, albeit hazy. Cloudy at times from late morning, but bright at other times. Still cold, 3’C. Likely frosty overnight, with fog a risk once more, but a bit of uncertainty over cloud amounts – assuming down to around -2’C, but if more cloudy then maybe a shade above 0’C.

Monday looks fairly cloudy. A bit of brightness at times, but generally staying mostly cloudy. The odd spot of light rain possible later. Becoming less cold, around 5’C by the end of the day in a light westerly breeze. Cloudy overnight with some showery rain – not amounting to that much, 7’C.

Tuesday is uncertain, but the more likely outcome is that the overnight weather front is still hanging around, bringing a cloudy day with some occasional rain. Low confidence though. Around 8’C.

I cannot actually give you any more details from here I’m afraid – I’m even tempted to delete what I wrote about Tuesday!

I’m stumped as to how the low pressure develops from Monday night and whether it re-introduces colder air from the north, or stays mild and wet for a couple of days.

Overall, I think we are going into a changeable pattern, swapping milder conditions with rain at times to colder, drier conditions with frost/fog overnight. But what part of the changeable pattern we will be in for Wednesday and the subsequent days is not certain.

But even the changeable pattern I am not yet convinced by – it could instead remain fairly cold and dry.

The SSW event doesn’t help with the short-term uncertainty – the model runs have become notably unstable over the last few days with some rather different output every time they are run.

And there is no update on how the SSW is going to play out – I don’t think enough damage has been done to the stratospheric polar vortex yet to change my previously expected weather patterns for late January and February to a significant cold spell.

But there are further warming events expected which could do enough damage. We shall see.…

Monday 4th January 2021

It is from the east…but it isn’t a beast.

I know I come across as pro-snow and not everyone is so keen – in fact, snow and particularly ice can be dangerous to those with mobility issues, for example. Really, I am pro-weather. I want snow, I want storms, I want thunderstorms, I want heatwaves (well now I have an air conditioning unit anyway), I want warm sunny spring days, I want heavy rain and gales…I just want a bit of drama really.

So please forgive me if I get a little excited sometimes about weather that may not be ideal for you – I do try to minimise my bias but don’t always manage it.

Last week’s and this week’s general synoptics have been the best for snow fans in midwinter for years, yet most precipitation has and will be rain. This does go to reinforce just how difficult it is to get snow in our area, but also makes me wonder if things really have changed.

I don’t have the answer – I know that there were no pools of deep cold to tap into, and the seas to our north were warmer than normal and to the east much warmer than normal. It was always very marginal, but I would normally have expected snow, in late December or early January from the set-up that we have had and still have.

What is a cold spell without snow? One you won’t remember in a couple of years. Anyway, it remains cold this week and there is still a chance of snow…a chance. Gosh that was a long introduction…you can tell that I have dinner in the fridge that only needs warming up.

Thanks to Dean for the photograph.

Tonight will be rather cloudy, breezy and cold, one or two showers in the wind which will mostly be rain, but could fall as sleet or snow towards dawn. Down to around 0’C, frost in places and possibly ice.

For Tuesday we are in this cold easterly flow, albeit a slightly moderated flow given that it originates in the warm south-east Meditteranean.

Generally cloudy but some brightness at times, some fairly light showers possible which should be of rain. Cold and windy, 4’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, light showers still possible, down to around 2’C.

Wednesday starts cloudy, but we should see increasing amounts of sunshine as the day goes on. Still cold but wind lighter, 4’C – the odd stray light shower still possible. Clear spells and frosty overnight, down to around -2’C.

For Thursday we swing back to more of a northerly flow – some reasonable sunny spells, some cloud floating around but a tad colder, 3’C. Overnight starts frosty – a weak weather front may arrive from the north around dawn bringing a chance of a little snow – but very uncertain at this stage. Down to around -2’C.

There is a chance of a weather system bringing a bit of sleet or snow on Friday – but way too early to have a handle on this, and could be a total non-event. It will still be cold, 3’C at best. Uncertainty on cloud amounts overnight, but if enough clear spells then expect a frost and down to around -4’C – but if cloudier skies then closer to 0’C. Fog possible.

Saturday sees a little slither of high pressure build in from the west – the start of a change to something less cold.

But still cold for Saturday, probably sunny spells and dry, but details uncertain. Around 3’C. Probably clear spells with a frost overnight, down to around -4’C – though some uncertainty on cloud amounts again.

Sunday looks settled. Details uncertain though more likely on the cloudy side. Low confidence on any details really. 4’C.

It probably remains cold and mostly dry next week. Some cloud, some sun, some frost, some fog. It should be a bit less cold than this week.

From there, who knows.

It looks like a major sudden stratospheric warming event will be declared either today or tomorrow. As I keep mentioning, SSW events are often followed by significant cold spells in the UK, ie February/March 2018 or March 2013. They give roughly a 65% chance.

Currently this looks like a displacement event, where the polar vortex in the stratosphere is displaced – which tends to be less likely to provide a significant cold spell for the UK, but still a greater chance then just our usual climate would allow for – depending on where the displaced vortex goes.

However, further to that, it is currently being modelled that there could be a further warming event in the stratosphere around 15th January, which would cause a split of the polar vortex – which is what you really want, if you are pro-snow, like myself.

So, in less words, the initial SSW event today/tomorrow probably won’t affect our weather in a pro-snow way, but a further stratospheric warming, if it happens, probably would.

The very earliest that a major cold spell could start, I would suggest is the very end of January. But don’t expect me to have the answer to how the SSW will affect us down in the troposphere for another week or so.

And remember – it doesn’t always lead to a significant cold spell. The last major SSW was in January 2019. An unusually warm February followed (I don’t know whether this was related to the SSW or just co-incidence).

Guess I should warm my dinner up.…