So winter starts tomorrow (in meteorological terms it does!). And it will actually start to get cold too – proper winter temperatures, unlike last winter. Some rain later in the week, and just a small chance it might turn to sleet or snow…ooh! Small chances! And it will be a nightmare to forecast.

My winter forecast will be out this week. Hopefully Wednesday, but if not then either Friday or Saturday. It is written in my head.

Thanks to Tracy for the frosty photograph. Friday morning’s frost did take me by surprise as I was expecting too much cloud and fog.

This evening will see a few splashes of patchy rain, clear skies will follow from late evening, down to around 1’C with a frost for most areas.

Tuesday will be mostly sunny. A bit of cloud floaty around but a pleasant, if chilly day. Around 6’C, maybe 7’C. Fairly clear skies overnight though some high cloud around. Down to around 1’C, a frost likely for most.

Wednesday starts to see a change as the breeze shifts to the north-west and low pressure starts to approach.

It should start bright with some sunny spells. A weather front will cross from roughly late morning onwards, bringing cloud and the odd splash of light rain. Chilly, 7’C. Clear skies at first overnight – the more sheltered spots may see a frost, clouding over as the night goes on with outbreaks of rain before dawn, though light and patchy at first. Down to around 2’C, picking up a tad later in the night.

Anything from Thursday onwards is uncertain in terms of precipitation – be it timing, type, intensity, etc – due to not yet knowing the exact track and behaviour of the low pressure system.

Thursday will be cloudy with rain at times. Some of the rain will be heavy, but it won’t be raining all the time – any more detail is still to be ascertained. Around 6’C and still feeling rather chilly. Further showery rain is possible overnight – and if there is rain, and it is heavy enough, there is a small chance that it will turn to sleet or snow as cold air tucks in, and/or the rain makes the air colder. However it could very easily be dry and frosty overnight! As I mentioned and will mention again, until we know the path of the low pressure, we won’t know where in the UK the areas of rain will be, and at what times. If there is rain, then temperatures will be around 2’C – if clear skies then down to around -3’C.

So Friday sees low pressure in charge with some pretty cold air in place.

More likely it will be sunny and cold, with the main weather front to our north, temperatures around 4’C. However, there could instead be some rain or even sleet/snow – as I mentioned this uncertainty is due to the uncertain track of the low pressure. Frost possible overnight.

Saturday, well it will be cold, I know that.

I think this is where I stop the forecast. Details are impossible fort the weekend. Low pressure will be in control, but it will only be raining (or possibly sleeting/snowing) if the weather front is over us – otherwise dry with sunny spells possible. Overnight frosts likely, if the weather front is not over us.

Remember we are never best placed for snow – I’d rate our chances of seeing snow falling at around 20% for some point Thursday night onwards. It will definitely be cold with notable overnight frosts.

They will be very marginal calls – I doubt I will have a better handle until Thursday and I fully expect it to be uncertain right up until the time.

Likely staying cold next week – the emphasis on dry weather with overnight frosts, but further rain or perhaps marginal call rain/snow events possible.…

Settled and generally quite chilly. Rather cloudy with overnight fog some nights – that is the general pattern for the next week.

Thanks to Tim for the photograph.

Tonight sees fog forming widely – quite dense fog so tricky driving conditions. Cold, down to around 2’C.

Friday starts foggy for most. It will slowly lift during the morning, but remains cloudy as a very weak weather front slowly spreads up from the south – perhaps giving a little drizzle or light rain at times in the afternoon. Around 6’C. Mostly cloudy overnight in a south-easterly breeze, the odd spot of light rain still likely. A touch milder, 8’C.

Saturday will be mostly cloudy for much of the day, though there should be some sunshine before the end of the day as the very weak weather front bringing all this cloud clears north. Milder in a south-easterly breeze, 11’C. Cloudy overnight with mist and fog forming in places. Chilly, around 5’C.

For Sunday the general European situation sees low pressure over the Mediterranean thanks to the split jetstream – which is taking some low pressure systems to the north of the UK, and some to the south. The kind of pattern that can be conducive to cold spells for the UK. And sandwiched in the middle is the UK and Scandinavia under high pressure.

Sunday looks cloudy and cool. Perhaps a tiny bit of brightness in the afternoon. Around 8’C. Cloudy overnight, fog forming in places, down to around 3’C.

Monday starts foggy for some, cloudy for all. Staying mostly cloudy – though again a chance of some limited afternoon brightness. On the chilly side at 7’C. Mostly cloudy overnight – a chance of a bit of rain as a weather front brushes along the east of England, around 6’C.

For Tuesday I’m hopeful for a bit more in the way of sunshine – but still plenty of cloud around. Still on the cool side, around 8’C. Likely chilly overnight – cloud/fog uncertain.

Wednesday is uncertain. Weather fronts will be starting to approach as low pressure moves down from the north-west, but actual conditions on Wednesday are uncertain. There could be some rain forming ahead of these weather fronts, or it could be cloudy, or perhaps even sunny. Still rather cool.

Thursday does look like low pressure will be very close to the UK, though the position and track is not yet certain. Rain is likely – though details are not yet set in stone, and probably still rather chilly, around 6’C.

Low confidence by Friday – models were suggesting that Thursday’s low pressure would move south of the UK, but are now suggesting that it stalls over the UK, feeding in some pretty chilly air from the north.

So until the models get a handle on this, forecasts for Friday and next weekend are pretty much semi-educated guesswork – the general pattern in the northern hemisphere is fairly unusual with the split jetstream and the polar vortex being over Eurasia rather than Greenland as it has been in many recent winters.

If low pressure does hang around the UK, still a pretty big if, then further showery rain would be likely for Friday and the weekend…and with cold air being fed in…well…we could even see a bit of wintry precipitation mixed in. I stress, very, very low confidence for position of low pressure next weekend, let alone anything else.

There is no quick route back to the traditional Atlantic-led wind, rain and mild conditions of our seemingly perpetual autumns for at least the next 2, possibly 3 weeks, so the potential for colder conditions is there – therefore maybe we’ll get lucky (or unlucky depending on your point of view) and see some snow at some point.

Gosh. I’ve said the s-word. I better finish this post. Don’t get excited – the first steps are in place – plenty needs to go right still for it to snow in our lowland southern location. Still more likely not to snow, than to snow…but there is potential up until around the middle of December. And yeah, perpetual autumn will return!…

The long promised settled spell is upon us – not totally devoid of rain, but most days dry, slowly becoming colder – some sunshine, some cloud, some frost and some fog.

Thanks to Paul for another spot on photograph.

Tonight will be quite cloudy, some clear spells – a south-westerly breeze keeping it a bit milder at around 8’C.

Tuesday sees sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud – a weather front slowly approaching from the west but staying dry. 12’C and breezy in a mild sector of air. Mostly cloudy overnight, a bit of rain arriving around dawn from the aforementioned weather front – though not much. Around 9’C.

For Wednesday we just about stay in the mild sector – it will be cloudy with occasional rain, often light but a few heavyish bursts mixed in. 12’C in the morning but becoming cooler as the day goes on. Probably still cloudy and mild overnight as that decaying weather front struggles to sink south – but a very close 60/40 kind of call and it could be clear with a slight frost instead – 30 miles further north and I’d call it for clear and frosty.

Thursday sees high pressure over the UK – though not the strongest area of high pressure ever.

It may start cloudy due to the lingering weather front, but it should become sunny even if it doesn’t start so. Some cloud around at times, but a pleasant if cool day. 8’C. Fog forming for many overnight – no guarantee in your specific area, but likely for many. Down to around 2’C.

Friday likely starts foggy. It will lift into low cloud, and eventually there should be some sunny spells. Chilly at around 7’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, some clear spells – down to around 3’C but very give or take – I wouldn’t rule out something colder with a slight frost, especially in sheltered spots, but difficult at this stage to be sure on cloud amounts.

Saturday starts fairly cloudy though with some sunny spells. We should see less cloud as the day goes on…and more sunshine. Around 8’C. Probably foggy or frosty overnight – unlikely both, and on the cold side.

Sunday probably fairly similar though confidence a bit reduced by this stage. Some sunshine, some cloud, around 8’C. A good chance of overnight frost, down to around 0’C.

Next week looks settled but a tad colder. Some sunshine, some cloud, mostly or completely dry. Temperatures by day around 5’C – so pretty cold, though perhaps a tad lower. Overnight frosts likely, depending on cloud amounts – we could end up a few degrees below zero.

Yes, it seems that we can still get cold weather in December!

I think towards the end of next week or into the weekend we might start to see weather fronts push in from the west – nothing especially unsettled expected, but some wind and rain. Quite a long way away though, only a slight favourite in terms of outcome probabilities – maybe the colder weather can become more entrenched. We shall see.

A few of you might be wondering if we can get any snow from this cold spell. Well, not under the currently expected set up – but I’d say there is a 20% chance that things could orientate to a northerly or north-westerly flow after the first week of December – which would bring better chances of wintry precipitation.…

Still a bit of a mish-mash ahead, some milder weather, some cooler weather, some sunshine, some cloud and a bit of rain. Nothing very exciting.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

Tonight will be a chilly night, a frost in more sheltered spots, though high cloud meaning many escaping a frost. Down to around 2’C.

Friday sees high pressure close to the south, low pressure towards Iceland. Nothing unusual.

It starts bright, but cloud will thicken with outbreaks of rain spreading across from the west later in the morning. It is a weakening weather front, so the rain will be patchy and light/moderate – clearing fully by early evening. 9’C and breezy. Cloudy overnight, 9’C and breezy.

Saturday looks mostly cloudy but dry. Some occasional bits of sunshine, but not much. Milder, 12’C and breezy. Cloudy overnight, some occasional light rain from a weak weather front, down to around 9’C.

Sunday starts fairly cloudy, but the cloud will be thinner than the last couple of days to allow for some hazy sunshine at times. Perhaps increasing sunshine amounts by the end of the afternoon. A bit cooler, 10’C. Overnight is probably chilly with clear spells and down to around 3’C – but there is a small chance of an area of rain instead.

Monday is a bit uncertain – we should still be under the influence of the high pressure close to our south, but weather fronts to the north may bring a weak weather front close by. Generally probably cloudy and around 11’C.

Tuesday should again be quite cloudy, but bright with some limited sunny spells. Likely on the mild side at around 12’C.

Things are pretty uncertain from Wednesday onwards. I still think the most likely outcome is that high pressure builds over the UK or at least close to – bringing more dry weather, frost possible, fog probable – sunshine amounts uncertain, temperatures generally around average.

The lesser likely outcome would see a spell of cooler, showery weather spread down from the north-west for a few days – then probably followed by my previously described most likely outcome.

Have a good weekend.…

Changeable is the key word for this week. But the trend is towards drier weather, and eventually…probably…colder weather.

Thanks to Paul for the photograph. No, I don’t know who the statues are of.

Tonight will be cloudy, mild and breezy, 12’C. Some occasional light rain, mostly in the evening hours, but dry most of the time.

For Tuesday we will be back in a very mild south-westerly flow.

It will be mostly cloudy – a bit of brightness at times, also the odd bit of light rain at times. Breezy and around 14’C. Breezy and fairly cloudy overnight, around 10’C.

Wednesday starts bright with a bit of sunshine – not too much! A weakening band of rain will slowly cross in the afternoon, the odd heavyish burst possible but it will be mostly light and patchy. Very mild again, 14’C, maybe 15’C – windy too. A cooler feel overnight with clear spells, still windy, down to around 7’C.

Thursday sees a north-westerly wind – strong at first but easing as the day goes on. Sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud – one or two scattered showers but nothing of note, and many places missing them. Feeling much cooler – 9’C. Clear spells at first overnight, though cloud thickening later – down to around 2’C – a frost possible, especially in more sheltered spots.

Friday then sees us reset back into a standard westerly – with high pressure close to the south, low pressure further to our north – but low pressure driving things.

Friday will therefore be mostly cloudy with some rain crossing at some point – timing uncertain as it stands. A moderate splash of rainfall – not expecting anything too much. Breezy and feeling milder, 11’C. Cloudy, breezy and fairly mild overnight, 10’C.

Saturday remains mostly cloudy, but there should be a bit of brightness at times, a bit more than Friday. The odd light shower possible, but nothing especially of note. Mild and breezy, 13’C. Similar overnight though a weak weather front may bring some more persistent light rain – uncertain at this stage.

Sunday then sees high pressure start to build over western UK.

It may start cloudy but we should see more sunshine as the day goes on – not 100% certain yet in terms of sunshine though. Around 10’C. Clear skies likely overnight, which means a cold night and a frost possible, especially in more sheltered spots.

Next week starts with high pressure in control. Cool but dry, overnight frosts probable, though will depend on clear skies – at this stage there is no certainty on cloud amounts. Fog possible also.

Uncertain as the week goes on – certainly possible that weather fronts could briefly bring a spell of rain either mid or late next week, though more days should be dry than not – and that applies for the rest of November in general.

A cold start to December looks increasingly plausible, as I have been suggesting for some time. It could well be cold and frosty without much in the way of wintry precipitation – but we’ll see. Get the cold in place, and then we’ll see if I have to use the s-word.…

Time for something a bit more autumnal – though not quite full-on.

Thanks to Christopher for a rather awesome shot. Was from over a week ago, but too good not to use!

Tonight will be mostly cloudy, the odd splash of rain possible overnight but mostly dry, 9’C.

Friday starts with a fairly short band of showery rain crossing, say roughly 7am to 9am. Sunny spells follow, though hazy in the afternoon. Breezy and around 12’C. Cloud slowly thickening overnight – quite chilly at first, down to 7’C but becoming much milder by dawn, as outbreaks of rain arrive, and it becomes windy – around 13’C by dawn.

Saturday sees outbreaks of rain. It won’t always be raining though, there will be some dry spells, more notably at times in the morning when it should be bright too, though still some occasional rain. More rain in the afternoon, still some dry spells – suggestions of a short spell of very heavy rain either late afternoon or during the evening, perhaps even a rumble of thunder and some gusty winds mixed in. Mild and windy, 14’C. Cloudy and windy overnight, a bit of rain at times – heavy rain possible by dawn, 11’C.

Sunday likely starts with heavy rain. This will clear to sunny spells – but there will be a fair amount of heavy showers in a strong wind, and later in the afternoon these could be rather prolonged. Windy and around 11’C – a chance of gales in the evening, though uncertain at this stage. Become calm overnight with clear spells, down to around 7’C.

By Monday we start to see high pressure push up from the south.

Sunny spells though hazy at times, and generally variable amounts of cloud. Around 11’C. Cloudy overnight and becoming quite windy again, 10’C.

Tuesday looks most likely fairly cloudy, windy and mild. Some uncertainty over cloud levels – some sunshine certainly possible, though it could easily be dull all day, perhaps a spot of light rain. 14’C. A band of rain crossing overnight – cooler to follow.

Wednesday sees us in a cooler sector of air, but there will be sunny spells also. Chance of showers, probably quite windy, around 10’C.

Rain looks likely either Wednesday night or Thursday – details starting to get a bit sketchy by this point.

I was expecting high pressure to build either over or close to the UK for late next week and into next weekend, bringing something cooler with greater chance of fog/frost. Models have switched away from that today to suggest something more unsettled. I still think high pressure building is the slightly more likely outcome, despite what the models are saying today, but I’m not as confident as I was.

Still think there is a fairly good chance of something colder than normal towards the end of November and into December – probably more frosty kind of cold instead of anything wintry, but far too early to know.

As it stands, this looks to be the best window of opportunity for a cold spell this winter, as the signs suggest it will often be mild after this possible cold spell.

Have a good weekend.…

We start the week with high pressure to our east – low pressure to our west. It can be quite a stubborn pressure pattern, but it does look like at times weather fronts will make progress – so often dry this week, mild too, but there will be some bands of rain crossing.

Thanks to Trisha for the photograph – it wasn’t the most interesting week of weather ever (in my opinion), but I received more photographs than normal!

This evening sees scattered heavy showers – these slowly fade as the evening and night goes on, it will be dry most of the time. Down to around 11’C.

Tuesday will see sunny spells with variable amounts of cloud. One or two showers dotted around, but not especially likely to catch one. Very mild, 15’C, maybe 16’C. Clear skies at first overnight, cloud gradually thickening from the west as the night goes on – also some mist and fog patches. Down to around 6’C.

For Wednesday we see low pressure trying to push in from the west.

The morning will be bright with hazy sunshine – once any mist and fog has lifted. Cloud slowly thickening further during the afternoon – some bits of rain possible by late afternoon or early evening as the weather front in the west makes slow progress against the high pressure block to our east. Still mild, 13’C and breezy. Rain crossing either during the evening or the first part of the night, some heavy bursts too. Clear skies follow and down to around 6’C.

Thursday sees sunny spells, hazy at times, with a fair amount of fair weather cloud also. Feeling a bit cooler, and breezy too, 11’C. Cloud thickening overnight, some showery rain likely later but nothing notable. Around 9’C.

Friday morning may still have some showery rain left, but this will clear to sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud. Milder, breezy, 13’C. Cloud thickening overnight, some rain possible though uncertain at this stage. Around 8’C.

For Saturday we should have milder air across the country – but also likely cloudy with some showery rain. Uncertain on the rain aspect as it stands. Quite windy, 15’C. Similar overnight.

Low confidence for Sunday, but I’d suggest something fresher, sunnier, but with a couple of heavy showers is the most likely outcome. It could instead be mild, cloudy with some bits of rain – like Saturday.

Suggestions that next week starts with a push of very mild air from the south once more, likely dry, overnight fog possible, sunshine uncertain.

Probably just for a couple of days – it either then briefly becomes unsettled followed by high pressure building close by, or we just skip the brief unsettled spell and have high pressure building close by. This should mean a greater chance of overnight fog and frost, a greater chance of sunshine by day, and mostly dry with temperatures closer to average.

Hints remain for a more notable cold spell being possible either end of November or beginning of December – as in, colder than normal for the time of year, assuming we can get high pressure in a favourable position for cold. Drier than normal does look the form horse through this period, cold more likely than mild – anything else uncertain.

Have a good week.…

Gosh is it Thursday already? Time flies when you are having fun…past tense obviously.

So high pressure in control for the next couple of days keeping it settled, but shifting east and allowing some showery rain to spread up from the south Sunday/Monday, with a milder flow.

Details in a minute, but a thank you to Paula for the photograph first.

Tonight will be clear and chilly, fog will form in some places, down to around 2’C – the more sheltered spots that don’t become foggy may see a slight frost.

Friday sees high pressure slip to the east, allowing a south-easterly flow to assert itself.

Any fog patches clearing reasonably quickly, long spells of sunshine follow, some cloud in the afternoon but broadly still often sunny. Around 11’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 2’C – perhaps some fog patches forming though less likely than recent nights, and some sheltered spots seeing a slight frost.

Saturday starts reasonably sunny. There will be high cloud often through the day, making the sunshine hazy thanks to low pressure to our south-west – and it is this low pressure pumping up milder air too – around 14’C. Mist or fog may form overnight for a time – becoming cloudier later with a chance of a bit of showery rain by dawn from a weakening weather front…down to around 8’C.

Sunday will be mostly cloudy. A little bit of showery rain possible at times, more likely in the morning or early afternoon. The odd sunny spell, there may also be a little morning mist/fog in places. Very mild, 15’C in a southerly breeze. Mostly cloudy overnight, mist or fog forming in places, around 11’C.

Monday sees low pressure edge closer to the UK but start to disintegrate. It will be mostly cloudy and very mild, some occasional showery rain – though dry for much of the time. 15’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, the odd splash of rain still possible, and mist or fog may form again, around 11’C.

By Tuesday we have what is unofficially known as a Sceuro block – high pressure over Scandinavia that extends south into Europe.

High pressure over Scandinavia is one of the most common winter cold weather patterns – bringing an easterly such as in February 2018 – however when it extends into Europe, there is no cold easterly flow possible and instead the UK often ends up in the battle ground with weather fronts trying to cross the UK, getting stuck and fizzling out – and this repeats. And we end up in a mildish southerly or south-westerly flow.

These kind of blocks can be difficult to break down.

Tuesday itself looks rather cloudy, a bit of sunshine at times, the odd splash of rain possible. Around 14’C. Fog possible overnight.

Wednesday or Thursday looks like an attempt by weather fronts to spread rain across – but too uncertain at this stage whether they’ll make it this far east, or when.

So generally for the rest of next week and into the weekend, the aforementioned pattern of often cloudy, generally mildish, often dry – but at some points weather fronts possibly making progress into the Sceuro block set up to our east.

As I said, these kind of blocking patterns can go on for some time. That said, I do think there is a decent chance of the high pressure block orientating into a favourable position for a notable cold spell either in the latter part of November or during December.

Whether that is a cold, frosty but sunny type of cold spell – or something more changeable involving the s-word is way, way, way too early to know.

I wish you a boring weekend.…

High pressure will be taking control this week. It feels like it is quite a while since I’ve said that.

Thanks to Paul for the nice and wide photograph!

Clear spells and quite chilly for the first part of the night, down to around 6’C, with a small area of heavy rain arriving later in the night, say around 4am give or take.

Tuesday starts with heavy rain but this soon clears east to leave sunny spells, fair weather cloud and a small chance of a lightish shower in a cool north-westerly breeze. 10’C. Clear skies overnight and lighter winds, temperatures dropping close to 0’C for the first time this season – a frost in places and one or two fog patches by dawn.

Wednesday sees high pressure to the west, extending over the UK.

Any early fog patches will soon clear, followed by good sunny spells and some fair weather cloud. 11’C at a push. A fairly cold night again overnight, around 2’C – fog forming quite widely overnight though not everywhere, and most places not quite cold enough for a frost, but some sheltered and non-foggy spots will.

Thursday starts foggy, probably quite widely. Uncertainty over how long it takes the fog to clear – once it does it should become sunny, for some it may stay foggy until lunchtime, for others it might not even start foggy or will soon clear. So maximum temperatures between 6’C and 10’C depending on how quickly (and if) fog clears. Potential for fog to form again at night – but uncertain, it will be chilly, down to around 3’C – give or take a couple of degrees.

By Friday high pressure has moved to our east and allows a milder flow to pick up once more.

It may start foggy but it should lift into long sunny spells quicker than on Thursday, to bring a pleasant day. Around 11’C with a breeze picking up later. Clear spells overnight, down to around 3’C. A much lower risk of fog, but cannot be ruled out.

Saturday starts sunny (assuming no fog). High cloud will build during the day, and it will become rather cloudy to end, albeit still fairly bright. Milder in a southerly flow, around 13’C. A chance of rain overnight as weather fronts start to spread up from the south – but uncertain at this stage.

Exact details for Sunday are uncertain, though broadly speaking it will be mild with a decent chance of either showers or general showery rain, due to low pressure close to our south-west.

Monday also looks mild but with showers or showery rain.

From midweek next week it looks like high pressure will build again close to the UK – perhaps over the UK but more likely to the east, or possible even north-east. Fog and frost possibilities, generally dry conditions – sunshine amounts and temperatures uncertain at this stage.

Certainly possible that it could become rather cold – a notable cold spell in either the second half of November or some point December is a realistic solution with the current state of the general hemispheric pattern. But don’t get excited yet…it could very easily just end up weeks of chilly and often cloudy weather. We’ll see.

Enjoy your last days of freedom…again.…