And it keeps raining. The band of rain is now stuck over the south of England and it will keep raining all day. 20mm so far recorded today, 44mm yesterday – almost as much as an average October month in full.
It should clear around early evening – and some of the rain will be light and patchy during the day, though still some fairly heavy bits mixed in too.
Dry and chilly tonight, some showers again tomorrow but also some sunny spells. Full update Monday evening as usual.…
A really tricky forecast today. Basically rain, but there should be a dry spell.
So the band of rain come up from north-west France and curls around across the UK, as you can see on the chart.
This is slowly moving west and north – though how far west it will make it before it slowly pushes back east is uncertain.
The most likely outcome is that it does clear to our west, and we get a spell of dry weather, perhaps even a bit of brightness, for a few hours, say roughly lunchtime onwards. And then mid-late afternoon, the rain becomes heavy once more and pushes east. It will rain all evening and night – that it pretty much certain, heavy rain too.
So there is a smallish chance that it may not actually clear west at all – and it keeps raining, though probably not heavy and also rather showery, before becoming heavy and persistent from mid/late afternoon onwards.
And there is also a smallish chance that it clears west and takes a bit longer to make it back, so say heavy rain from evening rather than mid/late afternoon.
As I said, heavy rain this evening and overnight is certain. And there will be showery rain tomorrow also. Reaching around 14’C today, though it doesn’t really matter.…
Big shout out to all the ducks out there – this one’s for you.
Oh and a big shout out to Marion for the photograph.
Yes, lots of rain ahead. Lots and lots of rain.
This evening sees heavy showers spread up from the south, from the developing Storm Alex. Any time from 9pm, continuing overnight and becoming more persistent rain from the early hours onwards. Around 10’C and becoming windy.
Friday starts with Storm Alex centred just over the far north-west of France
The weather front with the overnight rain will still be there during the morning and will only very slowly move north. Some of the rain will be heavy, probably very heavy at times, especially around late morning.
From around midday, the main area should clear to our north, but there will be showers following, perhaps a little brightness also. Winds will be strong in the morning, a little less so during the afternoon, coming from the east. Around 14’C.
Rain again becomes heavy and persistent in the evening, and continues through the night – potentially very heavy at times. Around 13’C.
Saturday starts wet with more heavy rain. The band of rain will be very, very slowly heading west and will stall and stop moving any further west at some point. It’s a very close call on current modelling, but I’d say a 65% chance that it clears to our west and allows a spell of dry conditions with sunny spells from some point from midday onwards – though with showers still possible. Then overnight the band of rain likely pivots back this way, bringing further outbreaks of rain, though more showery in nature. Around 14’C by day, 10’C by night.
Instead, at around a 35% chance, the weather front may stall over us, continuing the heavy rain all afternoon and into much of the night.
Sunday sees low pressure right on top of the UK, though the main weather fronts should be further south and west of us.
Probably starting cloudy with some patchy rain, the sun should come out a bit, but lots of cloud and some showers around also – more general rain at times cannot be ruled out. Around 13’C. Further showers or general showery rain overnight, around 10’C.
Monday keeps the low pressure circulation over us though it will be losing its oomph. Quite a lot of cloud, some occasional showers or general showery rain, but also a bit of sunshine and some dry spells too. Around 13’C. Variable cloud overnight, still some showery rain possible, down to around 8’C.
Tuesday looks a breezy day with some sunny spells, but also a fair amount of scattered heavy showers. Around 15’C. Probably clear and chilly overnight, down to around 6’C.
Wednesday probably rather similar to Tuesday, some sunny spells but also some scattered heavy showers. Around 15’C.
Thursday and Friday likely stay in this cool north-westerly flow. Breezy, some heavy showers at times and temperatures around 13’C.
High pressure may start to build from the west by next weekend – the somewhat more likely outcome. Generally drier but still a chance of some showers, less likely to be heavy though. Remaining cool with notably chilly nights and sunshine amounts uncertain at this stage.
I still expect from around the middle of the month something of an improvement in terms of temperatures and less in the way of rain. Fog will be very possible in such a scenario.…