Saturday 31st October 2020 – Rain Update

Well I hope you like rain because the news sure is gloomy this morning.

A band of rain just about arriving into our region as I type, it will become heavy – likely very heavy for a while, say around 2 hours, around 11am to 1pm, with the last showery bits clearing around 2/3pm.

Strong winds, particularly during the rain, but very mild at 16’C.

Further showery rain tonight, arriving after midnight, and for the first part of Sunday – though nothing heavy expected. Some heavy showers possible later on Sunday, a bit hit and miss, and occasional bits of lightish rain possible until Monday morning.

For next week, see my previous forecast as all is holding up well.…

Thursday 29th October 2020

High pressure will take charge next week, we might get our first frost of the season too. But more rain until then.

Thanks to Lucinda for the photograph.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy, the odd clear spell before midnight, the odd spot of light rain after. Windy but mild, 14’C.

Friday will be a mostly cloudy day. A fairly weak weather front will slowly make inroads from the west, bringing a bit of light rain at times, more likely in the afternoon – though it will struggle. Kind of quite warm, 17’C. This weather front will then push north overnight, to leave us dry, cloudy and mild at 14’C – though perhaps a bit of rain in the evening as it does get it’s act together.

Saturday starts bright, perhaps a bit of sunshine in the first couple of hours after dawn. Showery rain then spread across from the west during the morning, with a more distinct band of heavy rain for the afternoon – some strong winds accompanying this heavy rain, gusting around 40mph. Still notably mild, 16’C. Dry in the evening with clear spells, cloud thickening overnight with showery rain in the latter part of the night, down to 8’C in the evening but picking up a bit as the night goes on, as will the wind.

For Sunday we remain in this mild but unsettled flow.

Remaining mostly cloudy with further rain expected. However there is currently uncertainty as to the extent of which – it could just be occasional light to moderate rain, or potentially a long spell of heavy rain. Broadly expect rain, and I’ll update on details nearer the time, all being well. Windy and around 16’C. Similar overnight.

Monday probably starts with outbreaks of rain – but suffers the same uncertainty as Sunday. Likely becoming fresher and sunnier later.

Tuesday then starts to see high pressure build from the west. Cooler conditions again, around 11’C, but some sunny spells. I cannot yet rule out further showers. A cold night expected, down to around 2’C – a touch of frost for more sheltered spots, and a chance of fog.

By Wednesday we will be in a slack northerly flow thanks to our area of high pressure.

Sunny spells, light winds, still a small chance of a shower, and around 10’C so feeling cooler. Clear spells overnight, down to around 3’C, perhaps lower – a touch of frost possible in more sheltered spots and a chance of fog.

Thursday will see sunny spells, a bit of cloud around, a small chance of a light shower and around 11’C. Chilly overnight, though perhaps too breezy to get too cold.

Friday and into next weekend is uncertain. Suggestions that the high pressure moves to our east and we briefly get a milder flow again, but an increased chance of some showery rain at times.

High pressure is most likely to take control once more after that, increasing the chance of fog and frost, with temperatures most likely on the cold side.…

Monday 26th October 2020

So the clocks have gone back which means the weather models come out an hour earlier – this does make my life easier! Shame about the darkness.

A fairly unsettled week ahead, rain or showers at times, windy at times – but not a total washout or anything.

Thanks to Paul for the photograph.

Tonight sees clear skies at first, though cloud gradually thickening later in the night. Down to around 6’C.

Tuesday sees a large area of low pressure to the north-west of Scotland, which will spread a weather front across.

It will be cloudy with rain roughly 7am to 2pm, mostly moderate rainfall and somewhat patchy. Sunny spells will follow, perhaps a shower too. Quite windy, around 12’C. Variable cloud overnight, breezy, 8’C.

Wednesday will be fairly cloudy, some sunny spells at times, if hazy, and also a fair scattering of showers. Some places may miss out, but more likely catching a few showers, possibly heavy. Quite windy, around 12’C. Clear spells at first overnight, cloud thickening later, 8’C or so.

Thursday sees further rain spread across, mostly in the morning, the odd heavy burst possible. Likely mostly dry in the afternoon, but mostly cloudy also. Windy but a bit milder, around 14’C. Cloudy and mild overnight, the odd spot of rain possible, 14’C.

Friday sees an attempt by high pressure to our south to push north – though not making much progress with weather fronts still close to our north-west.

Most likely there will be quite a lot of cloud around, perhaps even a spot of light rain, but I’m hopeful for at least some brightness at times – and it is a warmer flow of air, 17’C should be reached. Cloudy and mild overnight, the odd spot of light rain possible, 13’C.

Saturday is a close call at the moment – the timing of the arrival of a weather front to the west is uncertain, if it can stay away until the evening then we should get some warmish sunshine, say 18’C – perhaps a bit more.

However, if it arrives during the morning or early afternoon, then closer to 16’C.

Further rain likely on Sunday, though details becoming sketchy now. Likely still mild or quite warm, and probably windy too.

Still expecting high pressure to build next week, roughly Tuesday or Wednesday onwards, which should bring more in the way of sunshine, but also risk of fog and possibly the first frosts of the season.

As November progresses, high pressure should be on the scene quite a bit, probably alternating between being close to our east with a milder, cloudier flow, and to our west, with a cooler but sunnier flow. The interchange from one to another probably being prefixed with a weather front bringing rain or showers. So quite mixed, but overall drier than normal.

Something worth mentioning is the chance of high pressure building to our north-west at some point in the second half of November, which could bring a more notable cold spell. Would be a fairly unusual set-up so it’s nothing more than a possible at the moment.

The best chance of a proper cold and wintry spell this winter looks to be either late November or during December as it currently stands. I’m not especially confident yet, but there is a chance. Too strong a La Niña or a very strong polar vortex developing in the next few weeks (like 2019) will probably scupper said chance.

January looks like it will be wet, February mixed and often mild – unless we get a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event, but predicting an SSW can only be wild speculation this far out.…

Friday 20th October 2020

Gosh, Cornwall is nice, isn’t it? Unlike the weather for the coming week or so, which will often be wet and windy, with the jetstream fired up and broadly speaking taking low pressure systems through Scotland – so we’ll miss the brunt, but it will be unsettled.

I’m going to be self-indulgent and today’s photograph is from Cornwall, and is from Porthleven to be exact.

Tonight sees clear skies at first, but cloud thickening later in the night, the wind picking up and temperatures rising a tad. Down to around 6’C whilst clear.

For Saturday we have a sizeable area of low pressure to the north-west of Scotland.

It will start bright, but cloud continues to thicken with some mostly light and patchy rain as the morning progresses. It stays this way during the afternoon with occasional light or moderate rain, but it looks like there will be around 30 minutes to an hour of very heavy rain, either late afternoon or early evening. An ETA of this short spell of very heavy rain of 5pm probably won’t be too far out. Windy but mild, 16’C. Further showery rain will follow during the evening, some heavy, but mostly dry after midnight. Down to around 8’C.

Sunday sees sunny spells and scattered showers. Some heavy showers, though some places missing them. Around 13’C and breezy. Breezy overnight with clear spells, down to around 6’C.

Monday still has low pressure on the scene, sunny spells again with scattered showers, some heavy. Around 13’C and breezy, though a little less so. Clear skies at first overnight, though cloud thickening a bit later, down to around 5’C.

Tuesday sees rain arriving during the morning. Outbreaks of rain continuing through much of the day, though often light or moderate in nature. Quite windy, around 12’C. Mostly clear overnight, windy and around 8’C.

Wednesday keeps low pressure in control to the north-west of Scotland. It looks like a day of plentiful showers and a bit of sunshine. Strong winds, around 13’C. Variable cloud overnight, still breezy or windy, around 10’C.

Thursday is uncertain. It will be windy and likely on the mild side, but the position of weather fronts is uncertain – it could rain all day, it could rain part of the day, or just stay cloudy. Too early to judge right now.

From Friday and into next weekend, it looks like high pressure will push up from the south. It isn’t a done deal yet – low pressure will be close to the west and this could scupper the outcome, but quite likely we’ll see some warmish sunshine, for the time of year.

It does look as though high pressure will be in control for the first week or so of November, and any warmer than usual weather will abate to normal, with fog and possibly frost a risk, depending on exact positioning of high pressure.

It should be back to the normal Monday/Thursday forecasting pattern next week, helped by the clocks going back and the models being out an hour earlier – the only part of the clocks going back that I like.

Enjoy your weekend.…

Tuesdsay 20th October 2020

Morning. I’m just going to get on with the forecast and see how far I get – my laptop is old, the keyboard is annoyingly small and I’m on my staycation, so no photographs, etc.

Tuesday starts cloudy, still a little patchy rain but that will fade. Sunny spells will follow, just a very small chance of a shower but most places staying dry. Feeling quite warm, 17’C, maybe 18’C in the southerly wind. Heavy rain spreading up from the south overnight, roughly midnight onwards, perhaps very heavy. Mild and also becoming a bit windy by dawn, 14’C.

Wednesday starts with heavy rain. This will clear during the afternoon, still the odd shower possible but eventually some brightness too. Around 16’C and quite windy. One or two showers possible in the evening, otherwise clear spells overnight, 11’C.

Thursday will be a day of sunshine and showers, some heavy. Still in the milder flow, around 15’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 6’C.

Friday starts sunny. Cloud will build with a fairly weak band of rain slowing crossing during the afternoon – there won’t be much rain out of it. A bit cooler than recent days, 13’C. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 6’C.

Saturday looks like it will become rather windy as low pressure approaches from the west. However, most likely, rain will stay to our west and we’ll have sunny spells, albeit hazy, and feeling pleasant also, say 16’C. Not 100% certain, but most likely.

The band of rain only slowly moving east, uncertain on arrival timing, perhaps overnight on Saturday but more likely some time on Sunday.

Next week is most likely to be unsettled, with heavy rain and strong winds at times – possible some gales.

After that, we should start to see high pressure build which will probably dominate a good chunk of November. Fog and frost will become probable features once high pressure arrives.

Next forecast will either be Friday evening or Saturday morning. Have a good week…I’m shortly off to Land’s End just to say I’ve been, then to St Ives for fish and chips. Have a pleasant week.…

Friday 16th October 2020

I was just enjoying a beer or two, then I realised that I still have to do my weather forecast. Yikes. Maybe I’ll end up a bit more chatty than normal.

A pretty cool and boring weekend ahead – and that’s just me and my social life. Milder next week – but wet and windy at times too.

Thanks to Sarah for the photograph.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy, the odd spot of drizzle or light rain but mostly dry. Should you get a bit of clear skies, fog will form, but not especially likely. Down to around 6’C.

Saturday will be mostly cloudy. A bit of brightness at times, more likely in the afternoon – a small chance of a spot of rain but mostly dry. 12’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, though a few clear spells – down to around 5’C.

Sunday will again be quite cloudy, but there will be some sunny spells, perhaps more likely during the morning. We might squeeze 13’C. Variable cloud overnight with a southerly breeze picking up, down to around 7’C.

Monday sees a stalled but developing low pressure to our west start to pump up a southerly wind – marking a distinct change in the weather.

Monday looks bright with hazy sunshine in a southerly wind, though cloud slowly thickening as the day goes on. Feeling milder, we might just squeeze 14’C. Whoa. Cloud thickening overnight, some outbreaks of rain overnight though nothing notable, 11’C.

Any early rain should clear swiftly on Tuesday, followed by mostly cloudy skies, a bit of sunshine at times, and the odd showery bit of rain. 16’C – perhaps a tad more. Dare I say, “quite warm”? I would were it March. Heavy rain spreading up from the south overnight – perhaps by early evening, but certainly overnight. Around 11’C and windy.

Wednesday likely starts wet, this will clear to sunshine and showers. Windy, around 14’C. Showers possible overnight, though uncertain at this stage.

Thursday is a bit uncertain, though showers or showery rain the more likely outcome with low pressure likely to be close – heavy downpours possible also. With a bit of sunshine, around 16’C.

Friday again is a bit vague in terms of forecasting, though a few more showers likely – less likely to be heavy. Around 15’C.

A new area of low pressure likely arrives for the weekend, bringing wind and rain at times.

The unsettled spell likely to continue through to the beginning of November, where high pressure should take control bringing dry conditions though with fog and possibly frost.

Enjoy your weekends. I’m going to Cornwall for a staycation next week, so I don’t promise a next forecast date – at some point Monday or Tuesday for sure.…

Tuesday 13th October 2020

Not a very interesting week of weather ahead – a bit of sun, quite a bit of cloud, a few showers and staying cool.

Best week for photographs for a while…and the hardest to choose. Thanks to Matthew – perfectly describes the weather ahead.

Tonight starts mostly cloudy, some bits and pieces of rain. Cloud tending to break increasingly after midnight, though still one or two scattered showers. Down to around 7’C.

Wednesday starts with sunny spells. As the morning goes on, cloud will build with some scattered showers, more likely in the afternoon but possible late morning (though some places missing them). Some sunny breaks still during the afternoon, but more cloud than sun. Breezy, with a north-easterly – around 13’C. Quite cloudy overnight though some clear spells, a spot of light rain possible though mostly dry, 7’C.

For Thursday we have high pressure to our north and an easterly breeze – would be a notably cold set-up in winter.

Quite a bit of cloud, but there will be some sunny breaks – overall more cloud than sunshine. A small chance of a shower, should be fairly light if you catch one. Around 12’C. Some clear spells overnight, down to around 6’C.

Friday will be broadly similar, quite a bit of cloud, some sunny spells, a small chance of a shower. Around 12’C in a light breeze. Probably rather cloudy overnight, perhaps misty also. Down to around 7’C – though colder if there is less cloud than I currently think likely.

By Saturday we start to see low pressure develop quite far to our west and sink south – which will be the driver of likely changes next week.

No real change in the weather, arguably more cloudy than during the week but still some bright spells possible, and a small chance of a light shower. Around 13’C. Probably staying cloudy overnight, down to around 7’C.

For Sunday…read Saturday.

Next week isn’t nailed on, but it looks most likely that we’ll pick up a southerly flow thanks to the aforementioned developing low pressure to our west.

Assuming so then we’ll be looking at milder conditions, say 14’C to 16’C. But also higher chances of spells of rain, and I’d expect it to be windy also. Details yet to be ironed out.

Next update will be Friday evening.…

Tuesday 13th October 2020 – Mini Update

Morning. Apologies that there was no forecast yesterday evening…I managed to wake up at 3:30am yesterday and was just totally zonked by time I finished work.

Enough about me, today starts with sunny spells and a scattering of showers.

Cloud will thicken this afternoon with some showery rain pushing west from around 4pm, give or take an hour or so. Mostly light or moderate rainfall. Still cool, fairly light breeze, 12’C.

Full update will be tonight. Though generally staying cool, rather cloudy, a bit of sun, fairly dry though the odd shower or bit of light rain at times.…

Thursday 10th October 2020

A bit of a mish-mash to come. Some sunshine, some rain, quite often cloudy. But most notably – chilly.

Thanks to Fay for the photograph.

Tonight sees mostly clear skies, one or two patches of mist and fog possible, but not for most. Down to around 5’C.

Friday starts sunny. A band of showery rain will cross from the north-west, roughly between midday and mid-afternoon – the odd heavy burst mixed in. Becoming breezy in the afternoon and feeling cool, 14’C. Mostly clear skies overnight and feeling rather cold in the wind, down to around 5’C.

Saturday sees high pressure to the west, low pressure to our east – and we are sandwiched in between in a chilly northerly flow.

Sunny spells with showers is the game, they could be heavy. Feeling chilly in the breeze, 13’C tops. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 6’C.

Sunday sees more in the way of sunshine though still a fair amount of cloud bubbling up. A few scattered showers still possible, though a lot less than Saturday and most likely to be fairly light. Still chilly, 13’C. A fairly cold night overnight with light winds and clearish skies, down to around 4’C.

Monday sees outbreaks of rain slowly spreading across the UK from the west – not huge amounts of rain, more bits and pieces of moderate rain. Still on the cool side, around 12’C. Variable cloud overnight, a bit of very occasional rain still possible. Around 8’C.

The forecast gets a bit trickier from Tuesday onwards, as it isn’t quite certain where Monday’s low pressure goes.

Broadly speaking the low pressure should either be to our east or south-east, which means showery rain for Tuesday, but how often it will be raining and how heavy, is up for debate – as is sunshine amounts. Cool and breezy, around 12’C.

Wednesday is properly uncertain. It could be showery rain – it could be fine with sunny spells – or something in between. Either way, it will remain on the cool side.

It remains uncertain from here, though I think the trend will increasingly be towards more dry days with sunny spells, but fog and perhaps even frost being possible also. You may still find some showery rain on one or two days.

Temperatures should recover to normal – we may even get a warmish day or two after next weekend (so in 10 or so days), but only tentative signs.

Most likely it becomes unsettled once more either by late October or early November, for a spell.

Have a good weekend.…

Monday 5th October 2020

There’s more rain to come, though it should settle down next week.

Thanks to Paul for the gloomy photograph.

Tonight will see plenty of cloud, some clear spells and also a few showers – more likely in the few hours after midnight. Around 10’C.

Tuesday sees low pressure still in charge, now to our north-east.

There will be some sunshine, but there will be plenty of showers – some heavy/very heavy, perhaps even with hail or a rumble of thunder. Quite windy, reaching around 15’C. Some clear spells overnight, down to around 9’C.

For Wednesday we will still be in the cool north-westerly flow, but we’ll lose the showers and just have some sunny spells with variable amounts of cloud. Still breezy, 14’C. Clouding over in the evening, with rain arriving at some point. Wet overnight, 12’C.

A bit of uncertainty for Thursday in terms of when rain clears – it could clear around dawn, or may hang around for a while. At some point, clear and brighter weather will spread down from the north-west. Around 15’C. Further rain probable overnight – though all the weather models have a different take right now and I’m not yet convinced by any.

Friday is uncertain due to the aforementioned area of rain from Thursday night. Assuming rain arrived on Thursday night, then it will likely rain for a good portion of Friday, and this is the slightly more likely outcome.

As I said, all the weather models have a different take on Thursday night’s system, and feasibly the rain could end up going much further north of us, or even staying to our south – and therefore Friday would be a bright day with sunny spells. The slightly more likely outcome is rain.

Saturday is likely to see us in a cool northerly flow, with low pressure close to our east – this does assume either that the rain arrived for Thursday night/Friday or it stayed to our south. So on that assumption, some sunny spells and a scattering of heavy showers – perhaps merging into longer spells of rain, and around 12’C at best. Also windy. Quite cold overnight.

Sunday again should be in this cool northerly flow. Some sunny spells, plenty of cloud, the odd shower. Around 12’C and windy. Rather cold overnight again.

Next week should start to see high pressure build from the west. Probably not a perfect process, showers remain possible, and plenty of cloud and still some chilly temperatures for the time of year.

As the week goes on, temperatures should recover to normal (say 15’C or so) with more in the way of sunshine. Fog chances will increase.

Looking further ahead as I occasionally like to do, November looks like it will see a cooler north-westerly flow more often than not, though not an especially wet outlook as it stands – and not always on the cool side.

Tentative signs that December may see some cold and wintry weather – whether that is a longer cold spell, or just occasional northerly cold snaps is way too far away to know. But I feel there is more potential for a colder than normal December then there has been in recent years, or at least some cold weather.

Milder and wetter conditions look more likely for January and February.

There are just early thoughts and my winter forecast won’t be issued until very early December. Plenty could happen before then – La Niña could become too strong to fancy a colder December, alternatively maybe we could get an early season sudden stratospheric warming event to increase the chance of a significant early cold spell.

Impossible to know until nearer the time. But it is shaping up to be fairly interesting so far. Then again…last winter looked like it would be fairly interesting at the same point in 2019.…