Tuesdsay 20th October 2020

Morning. I’m just going to get on with the forecast and see how far I get – my laptop is old, the keyboard is annoyingly small and I’m on my staycation, so no photographs, etc.

Tuesday starts cloudy, still a little patchy rain but that will fade. Sunny spells will follow, just a very small chance of a shower but most places staying dry. Feeling quite warm, 17’C, maybe 18’C in the southerly wind. Heavy rain spreading up from the south overnight, roughly midnight onwards, perhaps very heavy. Mild and also becoming a bit windy by dawn, 14’C.

Wednesday starts with heavy rain. This will clear during the afternoon, still the odd shower possible but eventually some brightness too. Around 16’C and quite windy. One or two showers possible in the evening, otherwise clear spells overnight, 11’C.

Thursday will be a day of sunshine and showers, some heavy. Still in the milder flow, around 15’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 6’C.

Friday starts sunny. Cloud will build with a fairly weak band of rain slowing crossing during the afternoon – there won’t be much rain out of it. A bit cooler than recent days, 13’C. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 6’C.

Saturday looks like it will become rather windy as low pressure approaches from the west. However, most likely, rain will stay to our west and we’ll have sunny spells, albeit hazy, and feeling pleasant also, say 16’C. Not 100% certain, but most likely.

The band of rain only slowly moving east, uncertain on arrival timing, perhaps overnight on Saturday but more likely some time on Sunday.

Next week is most likely to be unsettled, with heavy rain and strong winds at times – possible some gales.

After that, we should start to see high pressure build which will probably dominate a good chunk of November. Fog and frost will become probable features once high pressure arrives.

Next forecast will either be Friday evening or Saturday morning. Have a good week…I’m shortly off to Land’s End just to say I’ve been, then to St Ives for fish and chips. Have a pleasant week.…

Friday 16th October 2020

I was just enjoying a beer or two, then I realised that I still have to do my weather forecast. Yikes. Maybe I’ll end up a bit more chatty than normal.

A pretty cool and boring weekend ahead – and that’s just me and my social life. Milder next week – but wet and windy at times too.

Thanks to Sarah for the photograph.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy, the odd spot of drizzle or light rain but mostly dry. Should you get a bit of clear skies, fog will form, but not especially likely. Down to around 6’C.

Saturday will be mostly cloudy. A bit of brightness at times, more likely in the afternoon – a small chance of a spot of rain but mostly dry. 12’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, though a few clear spells – down to around 5’C.

Sunday will again be quite cloudy, but there will be some sunny spells, perhaps more likely during the morning. We might squeeze 13’C. Variable cloud overnight with a southerly breeze picking up, down to around 7’C.

Monday sees a stalled but developing low pressure to our west start to pump up a southerly wind – marking a distinct change in the weather.

Monday looks bright with hazy sunshine in a southerly wind, though cloud slowly thickening as the day goes on. Feeling milder, we might just squeeze 14’C. Whoa. Cloud thickening overnight, some outbreaks of rain overnight though nothing notable, 11’C.

Any early rain should clear swiftly on Tuesday, followed by mostly cloudy skies, a bit of sunshine at times, and the odd showery bit of rain. 16’C – perhaps a tad more. Dare I say, “quite warm”? I would were it March. Heavy rain spreading up from the south overnight – perhaps by early evening, but certainly overnight. Around 11’C and windy.

Wednesday likely starts wet, this will clear to sunshine and showers. Windy, around 14’C. Showers possible overnight, though uncertain at this stage.

Thursday is a bit uncertain, though showers or showery rain the more likely outcome with low pressure likely to be close – heavy downpours possible also. With a bit of sunshine, around 16’C.

Friday again is a bit vague in terms of forecasting, though a few more showers likely – less likely to be heavy. Around 15’C.

A new area of low pressure likely arrives for the weekend, bringing wind and rain at times.

The unsettled spell likely to continue through to the beginning of November, where high pressure should take control bringing dry conditions though with fog and possibly frost.

Enjoy your weekends. I’m going to Cornwall for a staycation next week, so I don’t promise a next forecast date – at some point Monday or Tuesday for sure.…

Tuesday 13th October 2020

Not a very interesting week of weather ahead – a bit of sun, quite a bit of cloud, a few showers and staying cool.

Best week for photographs for a while…and the hardest to choose. Thanks to Matthew – perfectly describes the weather ahead.

Tonight starts mostly cloudy, some bits and pieces of rain. Cloud tending to break increasingly after midnight, though still one or two scattered showers. Down to around 7’C.

Wednesday starts with sunny spells. As the morning goes on, cloud will build with some scattered showers, more likely in the afternoon but possible late morning (though some places missing them). Some sunny breaks still during the afternoon, but more cloud than sun. Breezy, with a north-easterly – around 13’C. Quite cloudy overnight though some clear spells, a spot of light rain possible though mostly dry, 7’C.

For Thursday we have high pressure to our north and an easterly breeze – would be a notably cold set-up in winter.

Quite a bit of cloud, but there will be some sunny breaks – overall more cloud than sunshine. A small chance of a shower, should be fairly light if you catch one. Around 12’C. Some clear spells overnight, down to around 6’C.

Friday will be broadly similar, quite a bit of cloud, some sunny spells, a small chance of a shower. Around 12’C in a light breeze. Probably rather cloudy overnight, perhaps misty also. Down to around 7’C – though colder if there is less cloud than I currently think likely.

By Saturday we start to see low pressure develop quite far to our west and sink south – which will be the driver of likely changes next week.

No real change in the weather, arguably more cloudy than during the week but still some bright spells possible, and a small chance of a light shower. Around 13’C. Probably staying cloudy overnight, down to around 7’C.

For Sunday…read Saturday.

Next week isn’t nailed on, but it looks most likely that we’ll pick up a southerly flow thanks to the aforementioned developing low pressure to our west.

Assuming so then we’ll be looking at milder conditions, say 14’C to 16’C. But also higher chances of spells of rain, and I’d expect it to be windy also. Details yet to be ironed out.

Next update will be Friday evening.…

Tuesday 13th October 2020 – Mini Update

Morning. Apologies that there was no forecast yesterday evening…I managed to wake up at 3:30am yesterday and was just totally zonked by time I finished work.

Enough about me, today starts with sunny spells and a scattering of showers.

Cloud will thicken this afternoon with some showery rain pushing west from around 4pm, give or take an hour or so. Mostly light or moderate rainfall. Still cool, fairly light breeze, 12’C.

Full update will be tonight. Though generally staying cool, rather cloudy, a bit of sun, fairly dry though the odd shower or bit of light rain at times.…

Thursday 10th October 2020

A bit of a mish-mash to come. Some sunshine, some rain, quite often cloudy. But most notably – chilly.

Thanks to Fay for the photograph.

Tonight sees mostly clear skies, one or two patches of mist and fog possible, but not for most. Down to around 5’C.

Friday starts sunny. A band of showery rain will cross from the north-west, roughly between midday and mid-afternoon – the odd heavy burst mixed in. Becoming breezy in the afternoon and feeling cool, 14’C. Mostly clear skies overnight and feeling rather cold in the wind, down to around 5’C.

Saturday sees high pressure to the west, low pressure to our east – and we are sandwiched in between in a chilly northerly flow.

Sunny spells with showers is the game, they could be heavy. Feeling chilly in the breeze, 13’C tops. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 6’C.

Sunday sees more in the way of sunshine though still a fair amount of cloud bubbling up. A few scattered showers still possible, though a lot less than Saturday and most likely to be fairly light. Still chilly, 13’C. A fairly cold night overnight with light winds and clearish skies, down to around 4’C.

Monday sees outbreaks of rain slowly spreading across the UK from the west – not huge amounts of rain, more bits and pieces of moderate rain. Still on the cool side, around 12’C. Variable cloud overnight, a bit of very occasional rain still possible. Around 8’C.

The forecast gets a bit trickier from Tuesday onwards, as it isn’t quite certain where Monday’s low pressure goes.

Broadly speaking the low pressure should either be to our east or south-east, which means showery rain for Tuesday, but how often it will be raining and how heavy, is up for debate – as is sunshine amounts. Cool and breezy, around 12’C.

Wednesday is properly uncertain. It could be showery rain – it could be fine with sunny spells – or something in between. Either way, it will remain on the cool side.

It remains uncertain from here, though I think the trend will increasingly be towards more dry days with sunny spells, but fog and perhaps even frost being possible also. You may still find some showery rain on one or two days.

Temperatures should recover to normal – we may even get a warmish day or two after next weekend (so in 10 or so days), but only tentative signs.

Most likely it becomes unsettled once more either by late October or early November, for a spell.

Have a good weekend.…

Monday 5th October 2020

There’s more rain to come, though it should settle down next week.

Thanks to Paul for the gloomy photograph.

Tonight will see plenty of cloud, some clear spells and also a few showers – more likely in the few hours after midnight. Around 10’C.

Tuesday sees low pressure still in charge, now to our north-east.

There will be some sunshine, but there will be plenty of showers – some heavy/very heavy, perhaps even with hail or a rumble of thunder. Quite windy, reaching around 15’C. Some clear spells overnight, down to around 9’C.

For Wednesday we will still be in the cool north-westerly flow, but we’ll lose the showers and just have some sunny spells with variable amounts of cloud. Still breezy, 14’C. Clouding over in the evening, with rain arriving at some point. Wet overnight, 12’C.

A bit of uncertainty for Thursday in terms of when rain clears – it could clear around dawn, or may hang around for a while. At some point, clear and brighter weather will spread down from the north-west. Around 15’C. Further rain probable overnight – though all the weather models have a different take right now and I’m not yet convinced by any.

Friday is uncertain due to the aforementioned area of rain from Thursday night. Assuming rain arrived on Thursday night, then it will likely rain for a good portion of Friday, and this is the slightly more likely outcome.

As I said, all the weather models have a different take on Thursday night’s system, and feasibly the rain could end up going much further north of us, or even staying to our south – and therefore Friday would be a bright day with sunny spells. The slightly more likely outcome is rain.

Saturday is likely to see us in a cool northerly flow, with low pressure close to our east – this does assume either that the rain arrived for Thursday night/Friday or it stayed to our south. So on that assumption, some sunny spells and a scattering of heavy showers – perhaps merging into longer spells of rain, and around 12’C at best. Also windy. Quite cold overnight.

Sunday again should be in this cool northerly flow. Some sunny spells, plenty of cloud, the odd shower. Around 12’C and windy. Rather cold overnight again.

Next week should start to see high pressure build from the west. Probably not a perfect process, showers remain possible, and plenty of cloud and still some chilly temperatures for the time of year.

As the week goes on, temperatures should recover to normal (say 15’C or so) with more in the way of sunshine. Fog chances will increase.

Looking further ahead as I occasionally like to do, November looks like it will see a cooler north-westerly flow more often than not, though not an especially wet outlook as it stands – and not always on the cool side.

Tentative signs that December may see some cold and wintry weather – whether that is a longer cold spell, or just occasional northerly cold snaps is way too far away to know. But I feel there is more potential for a colder than normal December then there has been in recent years, or at least some cold weather.

Milder and wetter conditions look more likely for January and February.

There are just early thoughts and my winter forecast won’t be issued until very early December. Plenty could happen before then – La Niña could become too strong to fancy a colder December, alternatively maybe we could get an early season sudden stratospheric warming event to increase the chance of a significant early cold spell.

Impossible to know until nearer the time. But it is shaping up to be fairly interesting so far. Then again…last winter looked like it would be fairly interesting at the same point in 2019.…

Sunday 4th October 2020 – Rain Update

And it keeps raining. The band of rain is now stuck over the south of England and it will keep raining all day. 20mm so far recorded today, 44mm yesterday – almost as much as an average October month in full.

It should clear around early evening – and some of the rain will be light and patchy during the day, though still some fairly heavy bits mixed in too.

Just 10’C.

Dry and chilly tonight, some showers again tomorrow but also some sunny spells. Full update Monday evening as usual.…

Saturday 3rd October 2020 – Rain Update

A really tricky forecast today. Basically rain, but there should be a dry spell.

So the band of rain come up from north-west France and curls around across the UK, as you can see on the chart.

This is slowly moving west and north – though how far west it will make it before it slowly pushes back east is uncertain.

The most likely outcome is that it does clear to our west, and we get a spell of dry weather, perhaps even a bit of brightness, for a few hours, say roughly lunchtime onwards. And then mid-late afternoon, the rain becomes heavy once more and pushes east. It will rain all evening and night – that it pretty much certain, heavy rain too.

So there is a smallish chance that it may not actually clear west at all – and it keeps raining, though probably not heavy and also rather showery, before becoming heavy and persistent from mid/late afternoon onwards.

And there is also a smallish chance that it clears west and takes a bit longer to make it back, so say heavy rain from evening rather than mid/late afternoon.

As I said, heavy rain this evening and overnight is certain. And there will be showery rain tomorrow also. Reaching around 14’C today, though it doesn’t really matter.…

Thursday 1st October 2020

Big shout out to all the ducks out there – this one’s for you.

Oh and a big shout out to Marion for the photograph.

Yes, lots of rain ahead. Lots and lots of rain.

This evening sees heavy showers spread up from the south, from the developing Storm Alex. Any time from 9pm, continuing overnight and becoming more persistent rain from the early hours onwards. Around 10’C and becoming windy.

Friday starts with Storm Alex centred just over the far north-west of France

The weather front with the overnight rain will still be there during the morning and will only very slowly move north. Some of the rain will be heavy, probably very heavy at times, especially around late morning.

From around midday, the main area should clear to our north, but there will be showers following, perhaps a little brightness also. Winds will be strong in the morning, a little less so during the afternoon, coming from the east. Around 14’C.

Rain again becomes heavy and persistent in the evening, and continues through the night – potentially very heavy at times. Around 13’C.

Saturday starts wet with more heavy rain. The band of rain will be very, very slowly heading west and will stall and stop moving any further west at some point. It’s a very close call on current modelling, but I’d say a 65% chance that it clears to our west and allows a spell of dry conditions with sunny spells from some point from midday onwards – though with showers still possible. Then overnight the band of rain likely pivots back this way, bringing further outbreaks of rain, though more showery in nature. Around 14’C by day, 10’C by night.

Instead, at around a 35% chance, the weather front may stall over us, continuing the heavy rain all afternoon and into much of the night.

Sunday sees low pressure right on top of the UK, though the main weather fronts should be further south and west of us.

Probably starting cloudy with some patchy rain, the sun should come out a bit, but lots of cloud and some showers around also – more general rain at times cannot be ruled out. Around 13’C. Further showers or general showery rain overnight, around 10’C.

Monday keeps the low pressure circulation over us though it will be losing its oomph. Quite a lot of cloud, some occasional showers or general showery rain, but also a bit of sunshine and some dry spells too. Around 13’C. Variable cloud overnight, still some showery rain possible, down to around 8’C.

Tuesday looks a breezy day with some sunny spells, but also a fair amount of scattered heavy showers. Around 15’C. Probably clear and chilly overnight, down to around 6’C.

Wednesday probably rather similar to Tuesday, some sunny spells but also some scattered heavy showers. Around 15’C.

Thursday and Friday likely stay in this cool north-westerly flow. Breezy, some heavy showers at times and temperatures around 13’C.

High pressure may start to build from the west by next weekend – the somewhat more likely outcome. Generally drier but still a chance of some showers, less likely to be heavy though. Remaining cool with notably chilly nights and sunshine amounts uncertain at this stage.

I still expect from around the middle of the month something of an improvement in terms of temperatures and less in the way of rain. Fog will be very possible in such a scenario.…