Monday 31st August 2020

Today is the last day of summer yet there will be more sunshine to come. Nothing especially warm in the forecast, and a bit of rain, but overall fairly respectable.

Thanks to JoJo for the photograph.

Tonight will see variable cloud amounts, temperatures down to around 10’C.

For Tuesday (and the week in general) we have a similar pattern to July, low pressure fairly close to out north, but the Azores High ridging in to give us pleasant if unspectacular weather.

Tuesday morning sees sunny spells. More cloud from lunchtime onwards but still some bright weather at times. Around 19’C, maybe squeezing 20’C. Variable cloud overnight and not as cool as late, 12’C.

Wednesday morning sees sunny spells once more. And again more cloud bubbling up in the afternoon, and generally becoming hazy later in the day as a weak weather front crosses – which will bring the odd splash of rain in the evening, but very patchy. Warm, 22’C. Cloudy overnight, a bit of occasional light rain or drizzle, mild, 16’C.

Thursday is a mostly cloudy day with this weather front struggling to clear south. A bit of light rain at times, but overall amounts minimal. Probably sunny to end the day, depending on when the weather front clears, and the odd glimmer of brightness at other times. On the warm side, breezy, 21’C. Variable cloud overnight, 14’C.

Friday is uncertain. An area of rain should develop, associated with our earlier weather front and push north, but whether it gets this far north is uncertain – otherwise bright with sunny spells. Kinda 50/50 call at the moment. Around 19’C.

Saturday sees more of a north-westerly flow, so temperatures dropping to around 17’C, maybe 18’C. Sunny spells though, some cloud, a small chance of a light/moderate shower. Probably quite chilly overnight.

Sunday sees a bit more of a northerly flow, nothing especially marked. Some sunny spells, a fair amount of cloud and a greater chance of showers. Around 17’C.

Next week should see the Azores High take more control over the UK, and allow something warmer with more sunshine for at least the start of the week.

Thursday 27th August 2020

Last year’s August bank holiday was the hottest August bank holiday on record. This bank holiday weekend certainly won’t, though there will be some sunshine on offer at times.

Thanks to Niru for the photograph. I hope you all enjoyed the soaking – I did.

The main rain has moved away – tonight will see quite a bit of cloud, one or two scattered showers, down to around 12’C.

Friday sees low pressure in control, just to our east.

There will be some limited sunny spells, mostly early, but lots of cloud and lots of heavy showers developing. Some very heavy downpours an/ord thunder very possible, and the showers may merge into longer spells of general heavy rain later. Becoming quite windy later, 18’C but not really feeling so. Showers still possible overnight, though less likely than day, mostly cloudy, down to around 10’C.

Saturday will be rather cloudy. Most of the rain will have shifted to our east and there will be a bit of sunshine at times, however one or two showers will remain possible at any point of day, perhaps even an hour or two of rain. Cool, 16’C. Clear spells developing overnight, down to around 8’C. Yikes.

Sunday sees high pressure start to build over us, pushing in from the west.

Some sunny spells in the morning but plenty of cloud developing from around late morning onwards – still some brightness but rather cloudy overall. A small chance of a shower. Still rather cool, 17’C at a push. Some clear spells overnight, down to around 9’C.

Bank Holiday Monday will be similar, some sunny spells for the morning, but lots of cloud for the afternoon and only bits of brightness. A shower not impossible but it should be dry. Around 18’C. Rather cloudy overnight, around 10’C.

Tuesday looks a slight improvement. Some sunny spells, some cloud around and a slightly greater chance of afternoon showers. Around 19’C.

Details a little sketchy for Wednesday onwards, but the overall pattern sees warmer air trying to push in from the south-west via the Azores High, low pressure to our north, and high pressure trying to build over Scandinavia.

Broadly speaking, Wednesday will be something like fair, with some sunny spells, a chance of a shower or two and close to 20’C.

Thursday tentatively looks very warm, but I’m not going to promise either sunshine or dry conditions yet.

Tentative suggestions of a push of much warmer air from the south for Friday and into next weekend, say around 25’C or so. Highly uncertain at this stage, but the slightly more likely outcome.

Plenty could go wrong, and we are slap bang in the middle of a very active Atlantic hurricane season, which just increases the uncertainty in terms of our weather patterns.…

Thursday 28th August 2020 – Very Heavy Rain

Just a quick reminder that, as per my forecast on Monday, there will be some very heavy rain around late this afternoon and into early evening.

The general picture is one of rain, somewhat showery now but becoming more persistent and heavy as the afternoon goes on.

At some point before the rain clears, perhaps close to 5pm but uncertain on an exact time, there should be a spell of very heavy or torrential rain. Some places just seeing some very heavy rain, but others could catch a rather torrential downpour – strong winds, localised flooding and some lightning all possible.

Full update tonight.…

Monday 24th August 2020

The last official week of summer…and it will be everything except summer. Gales and heavy rain for tomorrow, more rain and strong winds later in the week and an unseasonably cool weekend. Unseasonable cool Bank holiday weekend.

Thanks to Liz for the photograph, and everyone else who sent one in.

Still scattered heavy showers around for the first couple of hours this evening, some clear spells for a short while but cloud quickly thickening with rain arriving after midnight, some heavy, and winds picking up too. Around 16’C.

Tuesday sees the arrival of Storm Francis – it wouldn’t be anything too unusual in autumn or winter, but it is rather unusually potent for August.

The wind will be the main talking points, gusts of 45mph, perhaps around 50mph expected during the afternoon and evening – this will be enough for some isolated damage, a few fences panels down, that kind of thing. Also with trees in full leaf, there may be a few large branches or trees down – therefore there could be some disruption also. The usual professional channels such as Met Office Weather Warnings are out there.

Heavy rain at first in the morning, some very heavy bursts possible. Becoming lighter and more patchy later in the morning, with sunny spells for the afternoon and just a small chance of a light (ish) shower. Around 20’C but not really feeling so. Variable cloud overnight, still windy but less so, down to around 14’C.

Wednesday sees quite a lot of cloud around. There will be some sunny spells, more so late in the day. Windy at first, just breezy later, 21’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 11’C.

Thursday sees a developing area of low pressure head towards us though it won’t properly develop until it is over England. Quite a lot of cloud around, some sunny spells, and one or two scattered showers – at least for most of the day. Around 22’C.

Either late afternoon or during the evening, it looks like an area of heavy showers or general heavy rain will develop and spread east. Potentially very heavy or even torrential rain, a small chance of thunder too – some something else to watch with caution. Further heavy or very heavy showers at times overnight, around 14’C.

For Friday, we have this low pressure system over us – the wind will turn to the north-east and become rather strong, and cool too.

Two broad scenarios possible depending on exact positioning of the low pressure system, either we get stuck under a band of heavy rain for a good chunk of the day or we get some sunshine but plenty of heavy showers, potentially very heavy and thundery. Temperatures between 16’C and 19’C depending on sunshine amounts. Further showers likely overnight, down to around 11’C.

Saturday sees our low pressure system move east. Quite a bit of cloud around, a cool northerly wind, some sunny spells and also a chance of further showers – more likely in the morning. Around 16’C…it could even be a bit cooler than that. Down to around 11’C overnight.

Sunday sees high pressure start to settle things down. Still a cool northerly breeze, plenty of cloud though some sunny spells. One or two scattered showers and around 17’C. Probably quite chilly overnight.

Bank Holiday Monday sees sunny spells, a fair amount of fair weather cloud and lighter winds. It should be dry. Around 17’C.

And to think Bank Holiday August 2019 was 33’C.

Guess I’ll be ditching the shorts for the weekend.…

Monday 24th August 2020 – Mini Update

So the day starts with bits and pieces of rain – the heaviest looks to be to our south. Any bits of rain should fade by late morning, there will be some sunny spells but then heavy showers will break out and spread north-east during the afternoon.

Showers could be very heavy with hail and thunder mixed in. Smaller chance of them early afternoon, greater chance late afternoon and into the evening – as normal with showers you could miss out, but it is more likely that you’ll get a couple. 21’C in the sunshine.

It’s an unsettled week ahead, autumnalish, you could say. Strong winds and heavy rain tomorrow, more rain later in the week and unseasonably cool for the bank holiday weekend. I will have a full update this evening.…

Sunday 23rd August 2020 – Mini Update

Hello! A lot of cloud around today, especially this morning, but there will be some sunny breaks too.

Also a few scattered heavy showers from around lunchtime, some places will miss out, but others will get 2-3 showers. A rumble of thunder possible. Showers fading by evening. 21’C.

Showery rain or heavy showers tomorrow – a little uncertainty on this.

Full forecast will be tomorrow evening as normal, however do watch out for heavy rain and strong winds on Tuesday, possibly gale force.

And a further area of low pressure at the end of the week – more heavy rain and gales, and this looks like it will pull in a cool northerly wind for the bank holiday weekend.

So the most likely outcome for the bank holiday weekend is cool, with some sunny spells and also a few showers. Could be looking at maximum temperatures around 16’C which ain’t great for the end of August! Chilly nights too.

I will have more details tomorrow.…

Thursday 20th August 2020

Our little autumnal (ish) spell continues, but sun-seekers need not worry, we should return to summer in a while. Some people call it September…I’ll tell you more at the end.

Thanks to Paul again for the photograph…kind of monopolising things but on the money every time! I do appreciate all photographs sent in and try to mix up whose I feature, but with a website to cater for too, I do have to ensure that they fit – ie the width needs to be longer than the height! The other way around doesn’t work…sorry!

Yeah I’m difficult to please – has to match the coming weather, has to be good image quality, has to be wider than higher (square is actually fine) – and dogs or trains help 😉

So we start with a deep area of low pressure just to the west of Ireland – Storm Ellen as it has been named.

Tonight sees clear spells, becoming windy through the night but staying warm, around 18’C. A small chance of a passing shower later in the night but they should stay to our west.

Friday is a windy day, gusts of 40-45mph during the day which could be enough to bring some tree large branches or even a couple of trees down. Otherwise quite a bit of cloud, some sunny spells, and a scattering of blustery showers. Around 22’C. Clear spells overnight, still quite windy but less than during the day, down to around 16’C.

Saturday sees sunny spells and fair-weather cloud. A few scattered showers, some places missing out, temperatures around 21’C. Still quite windy. Clear spells overnight and a fresher feel, 13’C.

Sunday is another day of sunny spells and scattered showers. Not everywhere getting a shower, but on balance probably more around than on Saturday and they could be quite heavy. Pleasant in the sunshine, warm, around 22’C with lighter winds. Clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

Elements of uncertainty for Monday. Suggestions of a more organised band of heavy showers crossing at some point during the day – timing uncertain, sunny spells before and after. Around 21’C.

Tuesday looks like seeing the jetstream aligned straight towards the UK with low pressure heading our way.

Significant uncertainty over the development of this low pressure as it stands. The most likely track is over the south of the UK, bringing strong winds and heavy rain – perhaps gale force winds. It could instead track over north France and bring us just heavy rain, or it could track over Scotland and just bring us some showers.

Timing is also uncertain, Tuesday most likely but it could arrive anywhere from Monday night through to Wednesday.

Assuming the most likely above outcome happened, then Wednesday would be a case of variable cloud amounts and some showers, probably a tad cooler.

Low in confidence by Thursday…really need the forecast for Tuesday’s low to sort itself out first. However, the somewhat more likely outcome is for a build of high pressure and a fine day with sunny spells.

For Friday and the bank holiday weekend, the most likely outcome looks like a mixture of some fine, warm days and some cooler days with rain or showers. Around a 60% chance. Still around a 20% chance of something very warm and pleasant but also a 20% chance of something close to a wash-out!

I promised you more summer. There are fairly strong signals towards a decent spell of warm/very warm and sunny weather for a decent chunk of September.

I do think September starts changeable – a mix of fine days and showery days, but high pressure should build from the south/south-west at some point between 5th and 10th September, and allow for perhaps two weeks of settled, summer-like conditions.

Still 2-3 weeks away, things can change at much shorter notice than that, especially during hurricane season, so don’t get carried away just yet, but considering how far away it is, my confidence is fairly solid.

Have a good weekend.…

Monday 18th August 2020

Ready for autumn? Well, we won’t be quite full-on autumn but I’d suggest closer to the definition of autumn than summer.

Thanks to Paul for the photograph. Also, I may have overdone the fun this weekend so it will probably be a shorter and less-detailed forecast than normal.

This evening still sees scattered heavy showers, but they will fade to leave some clear spells. Down to around 15’C.

Tuesday sees sunny spells and scattered heavy showers. Less around than of late but mostly places still catching a couple and a small chance of a rumble of thunder. Very warm, 24’C. Clear at first overnight, cloud thickening from the south-west as the night goes on, 16’C.

Wednesday sees rain spreading up from the south-west. Perhaps dry and bright to start, but rain should arrive fairly swiftly and will be heavy at times – showery in nature so not always raining. Becoming quite windy but a warm feel despite the cloud and rain, around 20’C. A warm and humid night, around 19’C still. Further outbreaks of heavy rain, particularly late evening and first part of the night – likely drier later in the night.

Thursday sees low pressure to our west, dragging up warmer air. Good spells of sunshine, a little cloud. Very warm at around 25’C – perhaps more. Becoming quite windy overnight as low pressure moves closer, 17’C.

Friday sees low pressure close to the west of the UK. A windy day, still some sunny spells but also some showers. Warm, around 23’C. Variable cloud overnight, around 16’C.

Saturday will be fairly windy with sunny spells, some cloud and some scattered showers. Feeling a bit fresher, around 21’C.

Sunday looks fair. Sunny spells, some cloud, small chance of a shower. Around 20’C.

Next week looks rather mixed, further areas of low pressure will bring rain and/or showers for most days, but there will also be some fine weather in between. Something like 1-2 fine days, 3-4 showery/wet days is currently the mostly likely outcome.

As it stands, the bank holiday weekend is more likely to be similarly mixed but there are plenty of options with 10+ days to go. Roughly speaking, 60% chance of mixed conditions, 20% chance of outright unsettled, 10% chance of fine but not especially warm, 10% chance of hot and sunny.

Generally mixed for the start of September, though suggestions of something more settled and pleasant around the middle portion of the month.…

Thursday 13th August 2020

Me again! More heat, more humidity and more thunderstorms ahead. Though the peak of the heat has passed – more quite hot than very hot, broadly speaking.

I could have spent as long picking a photograph as writing the forecast – there are so many to choose from. Thanks to David for posting this.

This evening still sees scattered thunderstorms. As they have been all week, very hit and miss – some of you could get 1-2 hours of torrential rain and thunderstorms, some just a brief thunderstorm, others nothing. Overnight, still a small chance of a thundery shower but most places dry. A bit fresher though still warm and humid, down to around 18’C.

Friday has low pressure just to our south-west and we remain in this very warm and rather humid flow.

Much more cloud than of late – though there will be some brightness, some hazy sunshine. Heavy showers breaking out any time from dawn, some thundery. Again they will be hit and miss – some places may miss out completely, most places should get at least some downpours, and some thunder. There is also a chance of showers merging into longer spells of rain, especially in the afternoon. Localised flooding possible in the heaviest of downpours. Very warm, humid too, around 25’C. Showers overnight, a rumble of thunder still possible, around 18’C.

Saturday starts rather cloudy – showers possible. The sun should break out in the afternoon, albeit somewhat hazy, and temperatures should reach around 25’C – give or take a couple. However (assuming the sun comes out), further heavy showers will develop, plenty of them, they could be torrential with hail and thunder mixed in, and perhaps localised flooding. A small chance of a shower overnight, mostly dry and increasingly cloudy – fog possible. Around 18’C.

Sunday starts cloudy, possibly foggy. This soon lifts, the sun comes out and you know what happens next! Heavy, thundery showers break out and spread up from the south – I think more likely late afternoon and into the evening. Quite hot before the showers arrive, around 26’C but could be 2-3’C either way, depending on how quickly the morning cloud lifts and when showers arrive. Humid. Showers or thunderstorms remain very possible overnight, around 17’C.

Monday looks like it will be the last day of our thundery low being fully in charge, with slightly fresher conditions also starting to edge in. Some sunny spells, but plenty of heavy showers around, hail, thunder, torrential rain all very possible. Very warm, around 23’C. Some clear spells overnight, the odd shower still possible, around 16’C.

Tuesday sees more in the way of warm sunshine, but still some showers developing. Less likely than recent days, but still could be very heavy with a rumble of thunder. Very warm, around 23’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 14’C.

The general pattern from midweek looks to see a deepening area of low pressure slowly approach from the west – dragging up warmer air from the south again before it arrives.

So Wednesday and Thursday potentially very warm or quite hot. There is a chance of a band of rain at some point through these two days, but that will depend on the progress of the low pressure system which is far from certain…it is a week away!

Next weekend therefore looks wet, windy and almost autumnal. If low pressure doesn’t arrive until Saturday, then Friday could be hot or very hot, but most likely low pressure will be on the scene from Friday.

No strong signals on how August ends. Short hot spells remain possible (1-2 days), otherwise I’m assuming something similar to the pattern of July, with the Azores High ridging in, bringing some warm sunshine, some cloud, with the odd cooler, showery day.…

Thursday 13th August 2020 – Thunderstorm Chances

Another hot and humid day, with chances of thunderstorms.

It starts cloudy, a couple of thundery downpours have already broken out, however this short band of storms will continue to move west/north-west and there will be good spells of hot and humid sunshine for the rest of the morning, albeit quite hazy at times. Temperatures should reach 28’C, if not 30’C or a tad more – and 28’C should be enough to fire off thunderstorms any time from early afternoon onwards.

It’s likely that they will first form in what is known as “convergence zones”, where winds from two directions meet and force the air up, and hence create thunderstorms, and exactly where these will be is uncertain at this stage, but should be somewhere over the south of England – and I’d suggest this is slightly more likely to our south, and they will be slowly moving west-north-west. So around a 50-60% chance of a thunderstorm or two this afternoon.

In the evening, there are suggestions of more widespread thunderstorms across the Thames Valley.

Main risks are localised flooding from torrential downpours and fairly frequent lightning. There is also a lower chance of largish hail and strong wind gusts.

Full update tonight – there will be more heat, humidity and thunderstorms in the forecast, though the very hottest conditions should now be over.…