Well, the weather is definitely different to last week.

I think I suggested a week, maybe 10 days ago that it looked like the Atlantic was firing up a bit, and so it seems – with the jetstream assisting with bringing low pressure systems towards and through the UK.

Looking like a week or two of often not very summer-like weather.

Too many really good photographs this week – but Trisha’s is my pick, so thank you.

Tonight will be rather cloudy and dry, some clear spells at times, down to around 11’C.

Tuesday starts with our low pressure system moving towards Scandinavia, with a semi-formed secondary low approaching from the south-west.

The day starts with sunny spells, but the aforementioned secondary low will bring some showery rain across southern England. Not impossible that it will stay to our south – I don’t expect it to rain much further north than say Oxford, so some showery rain is likely, but not certain. Around 18’C and mostly cloudy after early sunny spells. Occasional bits of showery rain in the evening and overnight, some clear spells also, down to around 15’C.

Wednesday will see some sunny spells – but more cloud than sunshine and a fair amount of showers, some of which will be heavy – possibly merging into longer spells of rain later in the day. Around 20’C. Some clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.

Thursday will see a bit more sunshine, but plenty of cloud bubbling up with a fair few heavy showers for most. Thunder could easily be mixed in, perhaps hail, and some notably heavy downpours. Around 20’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.

Friday sees a ridge of high pressure – but with low pressure to the west heading in on a relatively strong jetstream.

Hazy sunshine at times, especially in the morning – cloud fitfully though gradually thickening during the afternoon – a small chance of a shower. Feeling a bit warmer and somewhat humid, 21’C, maybe a tad more. Cloudy, windy, warmish with some occasional rain overnight, around 16’C.

Saturday looks rather cloudy. Starting with some occasional rain – a bit of uncertainty over how much at this stage. It should become a bit brighter later, though likely staying fairly cloudy. Warm and windy, 20’C – get a bit of afternoon sunshine and 23’C is possible. Warmish and cloudy overnight, 16’C.

Confidence is too low for Sunday to be worth attempting a forecast…too many possible outcomes all roughly as likely. Perhaps warm/very warm more likely than not.

The Azores High should start trying to push in from the south-west next week – hello summer – but the jetstream will still be close to our north as it gradually continues to trek further north in its meandering fashion.

This suggests a changeable week is most likely with some fine sunny days but also some showers or weak bands of rain on other days. Temperatures perhaps a little below average at the beginning of the week, and perhaps a little above average by the end of the week…though way too early to be certain on that as a pattern.

Most likely we should see a spell of fine, warm/very warm summer-like weather for the second half of July, occasionally hot or very hot – and when it does become hot, thunderstorms will be possible. And this should carry into the first part of August.…

Ahhh doesn’t it feel much more normal outside?

Rather cloudy this morning with some showers – a notable band of heavy showers on the radar to our west will cross between 10am and midday, roughly.

Showers could be briefly very heavy, hail possible as is a rumble of thunder.

More sunshine from lunchtime onwards, still plenty of cloud around and a scattering of showers. We should reach 21’C, it will be quite windy and generally feel fresher as the day goes on.

A bit more sunshine for Sunday, still a fair amount of cloud around and a scattering of showers. Around 20’C.

Not much else has changed from my previous full forecast – a generally mixed week ahead with some sunny spells, some showers and a smallish chance of a spell of general rain on Tuesday.…

You have one more bonus hot day, though not as hot as today where we reached a mafting 31.2’C. And there are chances of thunderstorms as the breakdown to a week or so of definitely not summer begins.

Thanks to Lynne for the photograph. And to my new wife, Lola, also known as AEG ChillFlex Pro AXP26U338CW Air Conditioning Unit. She’s so chilled out, I’m totally in love. Why didn’t I buy one years ago?

So forecasting thundery breakdowns is always a total nightmare, and this is no different. It will be warm tonight, perhaps not getting below 20’C.

Overnight is only a small chance at best, maybe 10% chance of one or two isolated thunderstorms – perhaps fairly frequent lightning, some heavy rain also. Between roughly 3am and 7am.

Friday morning starts with a chance of thundery showers, which could organise into an hour or so of heavy rain – likewise it could stay dry. The sun should come out, if it hasn’t already, to bring some hot sunshine from 9am onwards, give or take. Then in the period roughly midday to 3pm, maybe 4pm, further scattered thunderstorms will break out and drift north. I’d suggest around a 35% chance of catching one, torrential rain likely if so, frequent lightning possible and a small chance of largish hail.

Hot again, 30’C should be squeezed though you’ll notice it become fresher in the evening. More in the way of cloud overnight and some heavy showers pushing through in the early hours – could be some lightning and some very heavy downpours mixed in. Down to around 16’C.

For Saturday we have low pressure in charge to the west of Scotland.

Saturday starts with frequent heavy showers, could be some thunder mixed in and some very heavy downpours. Showers becoming fewer in the afternoon and less likely to be heavy. Some sunny spells also. Around 21’C and windy. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 12’C.

Sunday sees a bit more in the way of sunshine, though plenty of fair weather cloud and some showers also, nothing especially heavy likely but I cannot rule it out. Around 20’C and breezy. Clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.

Monday is a little bit uncertain as it will depend on the exact position of the low pressure – more likely we are away from the main area of showers and have a mostly dry day, with some limited sunshine though plenty of cloud, small chance of a shower. Around 19’C.

Tuesday sees low pressure over Scandinavia and a relatively cool flow.

There is a bit of uncertainty as there may be a secondary low pressure tracking along the English Channel which could bring a spell of wet weather either Monday night or during Tuesday. I rate this outcome around a 30% chance as it stands.

Otherwise, plenty of cloud, some sunny spells and some showers – around 20’C.

Wednesday looks like we will be in a zone of nothingness, though I’m not especially confident. Quite a bit of cloud, some sunny spells, a small chance of a shower. Around 21’C.

Low confidence again for Thursday, but probably something broadly fair, some sunshine, some cloud, a small chance of a heavy shower, around 22’C.

For Friday and into beer garden weekend the most likely outcome is…yes, heavy showers or longer spells of rain. Not certain but the most likely outcome, with the jetstream meandering south towards the UK again.

More likely staying changeable until the middle of July – some fine, warm days, but some showery or even outright wet days too. Temperatures around average. It should warm up for the second half of July, with further very warm or hot sunshine at times.

If there are any changes to the thunderstorm outlook when the morning models are released, I’ll let you know. Otherwise have a good weekend.…

4 hot days and a thunderstorm. Or something like that.

Thanks to Tracy for the sunshine photograph.

Tonight sees clear skies, down to around 13’C.

Tuesday starts with high pressure to our east, centred roughly over north-west Germany, and low pressure to the west of Ireland. Pretty much the perfect setup if you want to turn the heat pump on.

Long spells of sunshine, a little bit of high cloud and a few flurry clouds at times, most likely in the morning and late afternoon – but sun, sun and more sun. Hot, 27’C, maybe 28’C. Mostly clear overnight, it will be fairly warm with a minimum of 16’C.

Wednesday will be hot with glorious sunshine all day. Little cloud, probably none. 30’C should be reached, maybe 31’C. A warm night overnight, an eventual minimum of 18’C, clear skies and a little bit of a breeze.

Thursday again sees long spells of hot sunshine. Very little cloud around, the odd bit of high cloud and the odd fluffy cloud. 30’C should be reached, 32’C is possible, a little humid too.

And that is where the easy part of my forecast ends.

By Friday, there will be a new area of low pressure approaching from the west, with a bit of momentum.

This will introduce weather fronts – meeting hot air, and you know what happens – thunderstorms. Not everywhere, some places will miss out, some places maybe just a bit of rain, but some places likely getting some notable thunderstorms and torrential rain. Impossible to know any details right now on where…sometimes this is still impossible right up to the event!

This could happen as early as Thursday night, so overnight Thursday will be a warm night, minimum temperatures of around 19’C and an unknown chance of thunderstorms and/or rain.

Friday likely remains hot, or very warm and humid. Some sunny spells, though more likely hazy sunshine than clear skies, with a chance of some thunderstorms and/or showery rain. Details very uncertain at this stage. Maximum temperatures will depend on timing of initial thunderstorms, though should be in the range of 25’C to 30’C.

A bit of a messy forecast but thundery breakdowns always are. Overnight on Friday it should be fresher with variable cloud, down to around 14’C.

By Saturday low pressure will be in charge, centred to the north-west of Scotland. A breezy day, much fresher yet still warm with sunny spells, around 22’C, give or take. A chance of showers, though uncertain on that aspect right now. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 14’C.

Sunday…I don’t really know. Various possibilities and I cannot really determine which is more likely. Sorry.

Next week likely starts fine, though nothing especially warm currently expected, perhaps a changeable week overnight with some occasional rain and showers, but more fine weather than not.

Generally looking fairly mixed for July still, there should be plenty more warm/very warm sunny days, but some showery days mixed in too. Roughly a ratio of 2:1 in favour of sunny and warm.

No particular weather pattern currently looks set to dominate, so it should occasionally be cooler than normal, and occasionally hot – often just normally warm/very warm for the time of year. Though hints that the Atlantic is stirring a tad, though taking low pressure systems well to our north.

Take care.…

Well we’ve certainly had some downpours this week. A mixed weekend ahead but definitely less rain falling! And chance of our first 30’C of the year next week.

Thanks to Paul for the photographic downpour.

A small chance of a stray shower this evening, otherwise clear spells at first tonight, but our rain band heading back east later in the night to bring a bit of showery rain before dawn, 12’C.

Friday morning sees occasional showery rain – yes from today’s band of rain heading back east. The odd heavy burst possible. More in the way of sunny spells in the afternoon, with one or two scattered heavy showers. Once the sun comes out, we should get to 20’C or close. Variable cloud overnight, around 12’C.

Saturday sees a ridge of high pressure building over England with a rather large low pressure area to the west of Ireland.

Saturday sees a fair amount of cloud around, notably in the morning with a few showers around – unlikely to be anything especially heavy. Some sunny spells, and sunshine amounts increasing during the afternoon – though still with some fair weather cloud, and becoming a bit hazy by evening. Still a small chance of a shower in the afternoon. Reasonably warm, 21’C. Becoming cloudy overnight, a band of rain crossing after midnight, 14’C.

Sunday starts cloudy with a band of rain. This will clear to leave sunny spells – one or two scattered showers in the afternoon also, some places missing out but they could be heavy. Warm, 22’C. Clear spells overnight, around 12’C.

Monday sees high pressure build from the south. Good spells of sunshine – some cloud around, warm, 22’C. Almost like May. Variable cloud overnight, 13’C.

By Tuesday, high pressure is close to our east/south-east and that low pressure system is still in the Atlantic – unable to make its normal eastwards progress.

Tuesday will see long spells of sunshine. Maybe a little cloud early morning, otherwise just like May. Very warm, 25’C – perhaps a bit more. Clear overnight and fairly warm, down to 16’C.

Wednesday will see plenty more sunshine. A bit of fair-weather cloud around – at this stage I don’t rule out an afternoon shower but currently it looks unlikely. Hot, 28’C – perhaps even 30’C. Fairly warm overnight, eventually down to 16’C.

Thursday and Friday should remain hot with sunny spells. Some uncertainty – there is a small chance that a weak weather front could instead bring something fresher, but I’m pretty confident that won’t happen yet.

There will also be a chance of either growing our our scattered thunderstorms or importing larger ones from France – nothing especially likely at this stage. Otherwise good sunny spells with maximum temperatures somewhere between 28’C and 32’C. Time to buy an air conditioning unit? And warm nights too.

Next weekend is uncertain – I’d expect at some point a proper breakdown, either from a thundery low spreading up from France, or thundery showers spreading from the west with fresher conditions following. Timing of the breakdown is uncertain – at the very earliest, Thursday, more likely the weekend, perhaps not until next week.…

Morning. Tricky forecast today but basically rain clearing to showers – the difficulty is in the details.

The bulk of the main area of rain has moved west – though it won’t move much further west. There will still be rain at times this morning, mostly light/moderate and showery in nature.

This afternoon is more tricky. If you look closely at the radar you can just about see the rain curling back through the Bristol Channel – this may extend back this far during the afternoon to bring back heavy rain.

Otherwise, the sun should come out to an extent, but there will be scattered heavy, thundery showers instead. If the sun doesn’t come out, then temperatures around 17’C – if it does, then around 20’C.

Full update tonight…and yes, there is a good chance of 1-3 hot days next week.…

I like most weather but my very favourite is warm sunshine with torrential, thundery downpours. I shall get my wish this week.

Thanks to Andy for the moody photograph. And dogs.

The evening starts with a scattering of very heavy showers, perhaps still some thunder – some places will stay dry though. Skies clearing overnight, down to around 14’C – though one or two fog patches may form for a time.

Tuesday is a day of sunny spells and heavy showers. Showers developing from mid-morning, some very heavy downpours possible with localised flooding, some thunder also. A few places will miss them, say around an 80% chance of catching one or day – they will be fairly slow moving again so they could last a while. And later in the afternoon into the evening, the shower risk should be much lower…still possible but much less likely. Very warm and a bit humid, around 24’C in the sunny spells. Variable cloud overnight, fog patches may form also, around 14’C.

Wednesday sees more heavy, thundery downpours. Overall more cloud around too, but there will be hazy sunshine at times – the main story will be repeated heavy downpours, torrential rain with localised flooding possible, thundery likely – yes, likely. Most places getting a few downpours, but such is the nature of showers I cannot totally rule out your location missing them all. Warm and a bit humid, 22’C. Showers continue in the evening and gradually turn into more persistent rain overnight – some heavy. Around 14’C again.

By Thursday we have this vaguely re-formed low pressure trough over the south of the UK, which has been hanging around for a week or so now.

The overnight band of rain should move north and west during the morning, something brighter with some sunny spells – not promising much – will follow…with more heavy, thundery downpours quickly developing! We should get to around 21’C.

I said should, as there is a fair chance that the overnight rain band sticks around longer by not clearing north and west…development is still a bit on edge, so we may instead end up with general rain and lower temperatures.

Thursday night sees areas of cloud, down to around 13’C.

Friday sees more showers. There will be some sunshine at times – perhaps more cloud than sun overall, especially in the morning. Some showers develop – not as widespread as recently so you might miss them. Possibly heavy and thundery, but also less likely to be so than recent days. Around 21’C. Variable cloud overnight, around 13’C.

Saturday sees high pressure start to poke its nose across the south of the UK – though with a notably large area of low pressure to the west of Ireland – quite what the low pressure ends up doing is uncertain at the moment.

Dealing with what we do know, Saturday will see sunny spells. A bit of cloud around at times, but more sunshine than cloud is likely. I cannot rule out a shower, but only a small chance. And it should be warm or very warm – around 23’C, give or take.

Sunday remains uncertain…we need to resolve what the low pressure will do first. More likely would be another day of sunny spells and temperatures on the very warm side – but that low pressure could send a weather front across instead.

I’m unsure about early next week, though I expect a good chunk of next week to see good amounts of sunshine and some very warm temperatures, with high pressure likely to be in control for most of it.

There is a chance of showers at times, especially early next week, but it should overall be a much more settled week. Should!…