I need to start writing my summer forecast – and I need a suitable photograph.
Photo orientation. It must be landscape orientation – not portrait. Square is fine as I can crop it if necessary, but landscape makes my life easier! If you don’t know what I’m talking about – the horizontal length should be longer than the vertical length.
Photo quality. Images need to have a little bit of quality to them – a small photo on an old phone just isn’t going to cut it in 2020. Most modern smartphones produce good quality images.
Weather! It must have some weather in it, and summer weather at that. Don’t forget there are different types of summer weather possible – it isn’t always sunny skies, and I try to match the photograph to my forecast.
Local area. Totally up to you, but I will need something local – not Aberdeen, Algeria or wherever you haven’t been on holiday.
Doesn’t have to be a recent photo – just make sure it fits the above requirements.
I know half of you will ignore the above, and that’s fine, you are more than welcome to send them anyway. But just be aware that I need something to fit those criteria.
Also for the first time, I will be donating £20 to the charity of choice for whoever’s photograph I choose. Will need to be a UK-registered charity and nothing controversial please (ie politics/religion or whatever might upset a few!).
Note that the image will be used on the forecast, as a Facebook cover photo and on the website.
Lockdown is starting to be eased…and just in time, so will the warm and sunny weather. But not a complete reversal. And not quite yet – a few more warm, sunny days to come first.
Thanks to Chris for the photograph.
Tonight sees mostly clear skies, temperatures down to 10’C.
Friday will again be sunny all day. An easterly breeze stopping it becoming too warm, but still very warm at 23’C, maybe 24’C. Clear overnight, down to around 9’C.
Saturday will again be sunny all day. Temperatures up a tad to 24’C, maybe 25’C as the breeze turns more south-easterly. Clear overnight, down to around 12’C.
Sunday will again be sunny all day…gosh this is boring…and I’m not sure whether I am talking about the weather. The breeze turning back more easterly, so temperatures reaching 23’C, maybe 24’C – and a little bit of fair weather cloud in the afternoon. Mostly clear overnight, down to 12’C.
Monday will be…reasonably sunny. A bit more cloud floating around than of late but sunshine still the theme. Probably round 23’C, though a chance of something closer to 27’C depending on wind direction.
Tuesday is likely to see warmer air creep in, and perhaps something more humid too. Sunny spells, some cloud – more than of late. It should be dry, but I don’t rule out a thundery downpour. Around 26’C, give or take.
Wednesday is uncertain – and when things should start to change. Low pressure roughly over France could creep out way and bring heavy, thundery rain – it could stay close enough to allow it to be very warm but with a chance of thundery downpours developing – or it could just be another very warm and sunny day.
It depends on the position of the French low pressure and that is undetermined right now.
You can see one model has it much closer to the UK than the other.
And you can see a low pressure system lurking to the north – for Thursday onwards.
Thursday sees a cooler northerly flow, with low pressure to our east. Some sunny spells, though a fair amount of cloud. A small chance of a light shower and temperatures closer to 19’C. Around 8’C overnight.
By Friday we are probably in this cooler northerly flow. It isn’t 100% nailed on, it could be a bit further east than here but we’d still be cooler than of late. At the moment I’m assuming some sunny spells, but also some showers around temperatures closer to 16’C – in a cool northerly wind.
Next weekend looks most likely to be on the cool side. Temperatures probably close to 16’C, rather cloudy, quite windy, some scattered showers.
The less likely outcome would see a bit more sunshine, lighter winds and around 19’C – not a patch on the recent weather.
Roll on autumn.
Though I do still expect the rest of June to be very warm and at times hot, with occasional thundery showers possible.…
Tonight will be mostly clear, though a bit more cloud towards dawn, down to around 10’C.
Tuesday starts with sunny spells. A band of cloud will spread south during the afternoon – it shouldn’t be especially overcast and the sun will break through at times, and increasingly so as the afternoon goes on. Very warm, 24’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C.
Wednesday sees high pressure centred over the UK. More sunny spells – a bit of cloud around but another pleasant day. 25’C, maybe 26’C at a push. Clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.
By Thursday, we start to see high pressure migrate towards Scandinavia.
Good spells of sunshine again, with just a bit of cloud around, however an easterly breeze will take temperatures back down to warm, say 22’C. Mostly clear overnight, down to around 10’C.
Friday very similar. Long spells of sunshine but the easterly breeze just slightly taking the edge off – yet still very warm, 23’C. Though 27’C in Manchester where it will be sheltered from the easterly! Mostly clear overnight, down to around 10’C.
Saturday again sees long spells of sunshine. Perhaps a bit of high cloud around. Warm, around 23’C. Clear overnight, down to around 12’C.
For Sunday we are in a no overall control situation – high pressure over Scandinavia having most influence, with low pressure both far to our west and another far to our south-west.
So, more sunshine. Around 24’C, give or take a couple.
Next week likely starts warm and sunny. Low pressure may develop over France and/or Spain which could increase the chance of a thundery shower or two here, but I’d rate at no more than a small chance right now.
There is a reasonable chance of something cooler and perhaps showery for next weekend – I’m not totally buying it yet.
Though the broad outlook for the couple of weeks after is for it to be mostly warm/very warm, often sunny and mostly dry – with a small chance of thundery outbreaks over France/Spain drifting our way occasionally.
All being well, you’ll have a full summer forecast next weekend. Maybe have a think about summer photographs – but please don’t send until I request, so I can keep them in one place!…
Well the thunderstorms this morning were a non-event for almost the whole of England – unless you were on the coast of Suffolk this morning.
Something a bit more mixed for the next few days but still some warmish sunshine around – and high pressure back to dominance again next week.
Thanks to Susan for the photograph.
I also read yesterday that we’ve broken the sunshine record for Spring as a whole – with 11 days to go. Of all the years to do so…
Tonight will be a warm night with hazy cloud, eventually getting down to 15’C before dawn but around 17’C or more for most of the night.
Friday starts under the influence of a deep area of low pressure for the time of year, off the west coast of Scotland.
The morning will be cloudy as a weather front passes through – some places getting a splash of rain but amounts minimal. Sunny spells will follow, some fair weather cloud and fresher – yet still warm at 22’C. Quite windy. Clear spells overnight, down to around 11’C.
Saturday is a day of sunshine and showers in a notable westerly breeze. No guarantee of catching one, but more likely getting a couple. They could be heavy, small chance of thunder/hail. Showers more likely in the morning and around lunchtime, and more likely to be heavy/thundery then too – high pressure will be increasingly exerting itself as the day goes on. Getting to around 20’C. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 10’C.
Sunday sees high pressure pushing back up from the south. There will be some cloud around at times, but plenty of sunshine too. Mostly sunny by evening. Warm, 22’C, with a light breeze. Clear spells overnight, down to around 10’C.
Bank Holiday Monday will see good spells of sunshine. A bit of fair weather cloud at times, but mostly sunny all day. Very warm, 24’C – maybe a tad more. Clear spells overnight, down to around 11’C.
By Tuesday, high pressure will be stretching in a belt from the east coast of America right through into Russia. Quite impressive.
It looks fair and warm, but I think there will be more cloud than sunshine – though still generally pleasant. A very small chance of a shower. Around 22’C. Clear spells overnight, 9’C.
By Wednesday we start to get some uncertainty – still likely dry with sunny spells, though maximum temperatures could be anywhere from 20’C to 27’C.
For the rest of the week it could be one of two scenarios, either staying warm, sunny and dry or becoming hot, sunny with a small chance of a thundery downpour.
Next weekend is uncertain at this stage, and will depend on whether we take the warm or hot track.
Generally staying warm or hot for the foreseeable future, though the odd thundery shower will be possible at times.…
So I left you with an uncertain and small chance of thunderstorms for Thursday.
We still have an uncertain and small chance of thunderstorms.
A trough will be heading in from the west during Thursday morning – if there is enough instability this could trigger scattered thunderstorms any time between 6am and 10am, as the trough moves east.
I’m rating this a 20% chance at most for our area – the initiation is more likely to be a bit further east, it could easily be a complete non-event for the whole of England also. More likely to occur east/north-east of London.
Sunshine will follow and another hot day, around 26’C.
A very small chance of elevated thunderstorms overnight, maybe 5% chance at a push. Full update tomorrow evening.…
Morning. Quite a mix of weather this week – our hottest day of the year so far on Wednesday, a chance of thunderstorms on Thursday, then some mish-mashy weather.
Well, it might be lunchtime by time I finish writing it as I might not finish before work. And no, I had a worse night’s sleep last night so I’m even more tired today. And my hayfever has finally kicked in. Oh well, at least I can work from home…for the next 30 years.
Had quite a lot of photographs to choose from this week – thanks to Jo.
Today sees long spells of sunshine. There will be some high cloud around at times – some low cloud is possible, more likely late afternoon – though more likely to stay sunny. Very warm, 25’C. Mostly clear overnight, down to around 10’C.
Wednesday should become the hottest day of the year so far. Broadly sunny, though with high cloud especially in the afternoon. Again there is a chance of some areas of low cloud or fair weather cloud bubbling up, more likely in the afternoon. 25’C if you get a bit more cloud, but we should get to 27’C – and a bit humid too. Clear spells at first overnight, quite a warm feeling night and a bit humid, minimum of 15’C.
Thursday is uncertain. There is certainly a chance of afternoon thunderstorms developing, say a 25% chance, or even general showery, thundery rain. Sunshine amounts also uncertain – it could often be sunny, and reach 26’C, or perhaps more cloudy and muggy, 22’C. Won’t be until late tomorrow until there is a better handle on the details, I’m afraid.
Friday will see fresher air sweep across, thanks to a weather front from the remnants of the first Atlantic tropical storm of the year, Arthur (pretty certain it is the remnants…or spawned by, if not technically remnants), off the west coast of Scotland. Bringing cloud and bits of rain for the morning. Some sunshine in the afternoon, albeit probably hazy at times. Maybe 20’C by the afternoon or a little under, but feeling much fresher in the south-westerly breeze. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 9’C and still breezy.
Saturday sees high pressure build from the south again. Sunny spells, fair weather cloud and around 20’C, give or take a couple of degrees. A small chance of a lightish shower. Clear spells overnight, 7’C.
Sunday sees high pressure extend its control across the whole country. Again good spells of sunshine, some fair weather cloud and also high cloud, but broadly very pleasant and becoming warmer, 22’C or so.
Nearly finished it before work…not quite!
Bank Holiday Monday…yeah another one…should be warm/very warm with sunny spells.
Tuesday likely warmer, perhaps quite hot.
Not entirely certain where we go immediately after there. Whilst some quite hot days look very possible, there is also the chance of a short unsettled spell from the Atlantic – talking a few days at most and I’m not yet totally bought into that idea.
Generally speaking, June looks warmer and sunnier than average – with less days of rain falling than normal too. Some further very warm/hot conditions likely.
July and August still look more mixed.
I guess the next full forecast will be Thursday evening, but you will also get a more detailed look at Thursday’s potential thunderstorms before then, though I stress it is no more than a 25% chance as it stands for us. Further east has a higher chance, especially towards East Anglia – and it could be a non-event.
This might not be the last “morning” full forecast you receive.…
Staying settled – sunshine amounts and temperatures will duly rise too.
Thanks to Nicola for the photograph.
Another fairly clear and fairly chilly night tonight, down to around 2’C – a slight frost in more sheltered spots.
Friday starts sunny. Cloud will thicken from mid-morning, much like recent days and will be rather overcast for a while. Cloud breaking up as the afternoon goes on with more sunshine to end the day. A lighter breeze and temperatures up a bit, maybe 16’C, or close to. Variable cloud overnight, and not as chilly, down to around 7’C.
Similar for Saturday. Starting with sunny spells but clouding over and being rather overcast during the afternoon. Brighter by the evening. 16’C, perhaps 17’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 6’C.
By Sunday, high pressure has migrated from our north-west, where it was introducing our colder air, to our south-west – and we have a warmer flow.
More sunshine, still some areas of low cloud floating around especially in the afternoon, and high cloud generally there, but the emphasis more on sunshine – 20’C should be reached. Clear spells overnight, down to around 9’C.
Monday starts with sunny spells, perhaps hazy. Again more cloud will bubble up, though still some sunny spells at times – it will be pleasant and warm, albeit with a fair amount of cloud. 22’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 11’C.
Tuesday starts with sunny spells. Yep, you guess it, cloud will bubble up. Not as much as recently though – the lunchtime period probably rather cloudy but good sunny spells outside that 2-3 hour period. Very warm, 24’C possible. Clear spells overnight, 11’C.
Things start to get a bit uncertain from Wednesday. It looks like high pressure will then be to our north-east – one of the main models develops a cooler easterly, the other develops a relatively hot southerly flow.
Either way it should remain dry with sunny spells – but temperatures could be around 17’C or around 26’C! Or anything in between. I marginally favour the southerly flow in terms like likelihood.
Should we go the relatively hot southerly route, it would likely break down with showers towards the end of next week – perhaps thunderstorms, before coming settled and warm once more.
The cooler route more likely to lead to a lengthy settled spell to follow, but warmish temperatures.
Either way the latter part of May and most of June look likely to remain mostly very warm/hot, often sunny with only occasional showery/thundery days. As I’ve been stating for some time now. You may well come to know it as Flaming June.
July definitely looks more mixed – June may actually be hotter than July.
A cooler week ahead, more cloud than sun but mostly dry.
Thanks to Eloise for the cloudy photograph.
We start the week with high pressure to the north-west of the UK, which is broadly where it stays this week.
Tonight will see mostly clear skies. A chilly night, down to around 2’C – a touch of frost in more sheltered spots.
Tuesday starts sunny, but cloud will build by mid-morning to leave a rather cloudy day, but with some fairly limited sunny spells. Around 14’C with a lighter breeze. Still quite a bit of cloud overnight, down to around 5’C.
Wednesday sees more of an easterly breeze pick up, some sunshine to start but soon becoming mostly cloudy – with only limited sunshine expected. A small chance of a light shower, feeling chilly at around 12’C. Clear spells developing overnight, down to around 3’C.
Thursday continues in the same theme. A bit more uncertainty on cloud amounts but likely it will be rather cloudy during the middle part of the day, with more sunshine early morning and from late afternoon. Still the chilly easterly wind, around 13’C. Chilly overnight, down to around 2’C – a touch of frost possible in more sheltered spots.
Hints of a change by Friday, as high pressure that was to our north-west starts to shift towards the UK. A similar kind of day weather-wise, sunny to start and end, rather cloudy for the middle portion. Around 15’C – perhaps a tad warmer. Down to around 5’C overnight.
Saturday likely sees a bit more in the way of sunshine, but with a fair amount of cloud bubbling up – probably mostly cloudy again around lunchtime, though overall the day seeing more sunshine than previous days. Feeling a warmer, 18’C or so, perhaps even 20’C at a push. Variable cloud overnight, 6’C.
By Sunday we see high pressure in a nice position for sunshine and warmth, with a south-westerly flow. There should be good sunny spells, with temperatures around 20’C or more.
It should then remain warm/very warm and often sunny for next week. Possibly an increased chance of a shower or two later in the week.…
Morning. We are still under the warm air this morning – so with some early sunshine, albeit hazy at times, we could squeeze 20’C, maybe 21’C.
Temperatures will fall gradually this afternoon as the cold front to our north sinks south – notably so, being just 8’C by the evening.
Cloud will thicken also, there will be a bit of showery rain dotted around, though no guarantee you’ll get any.
Full update tomorrow evening as usual.
Though the story will be that high pressure will remain in control but with cooler air over the country, say 12’C to 14’C by day, quite a lot of cloud around too, but some sun at times. Small chance of a light shower or two during the week but nothing notable. Chilly nights – a chance of frost depending on cloud amounts.…
Thanks to Neil for the photograph – not only glorious images but also landscape-orientated and large, so they fit the website perfectly!
First time that I’ve written the forecast with a glass of red wine to hand for some months…possibly all year…so do forgive me if I go off on a tangent about my sock collection or something. I’ll try to keep it relevant.
Tonight sees spells of mid/high level cloud, down to around 9’C.
Bank Holiday Friday will see long spells of hazy sunshine. Some fair weather cloud in the afternoon too – probably less high cloud by that point and a very small chance of a heavy shower. Currently I expect them to be further north but I’m not certain of that. 10% chance at most. Very warm, we might squeeze 24’C. Reasonably clear overnight, down to around 10’C.
Saturday will see long spells of sunshine again. Still some high cloud around though it should be higher up and hence the sunshine less hazy than Friday. Also a bit of fair weather cloud and a small chance of a heavy shower later – again I think the risk is far greater further north, so a 10% chance at most. We might just reach 25’C – which in my book, is officially “HOT”. Quite hot anyway. Fairly cloudy overnight, around 11’C.
For Sunday, we see the Arctic blast arriving.
These charts show the difference in temperature compared to average for the time of year – you can see Saturday is much warmer – Sunday is much colder. Do you find these charts useful or confusing?!
We should still have the warmer air for the morning, and we may reach 16’C or so. Rather cloudy, perhaps a bit of hazy sunshine and a bit of scattered showery rain too.
There may be a bit of sunshine by evening – but it will be much colder, say 8’C in the evening in a cold wind – you will really notice it. Quite cloudy and windy overnight, down to around 5’C.
Monday looks fairly cloudy but there should be a bit of sunshine – and a small chance of a light shower. Around 11’C and feeling chilly in the wind. Clear spells developing overnight – a frost possible, temperatures somewhere between -1’C and 2’C – depending on how quickly cloud clears.
Tuesdsay sees high pressure in charge. Still likely a lot of cloud and in the cool air mass, sunshine limited but some, more likely early morning and evening. Around 12’C. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 2’C.
Wednesday again still likely sees a lot of cloud around, though the uncertainty on cloud amounts edges up. Still a cool breeze and around 13’C. Another chilly night expected.
More of the same for Thursday, though we might, I stress might, just be able to pick up a slightly warmer flow directed by the low pressure over France – which seems to have been there for weeks now. There should also be more sunshine than cloud, though still cloudy spells. Maybe 15’C.
There is also a chance of importing some rain either Thursday day, night or Friday from the low pressure system over France.
This is where the forecast breaks down and becomes too uncertain to do in details. I know you were all hoping for a detailed forecast for next weekend for that extra 20 minute daily walk that you might be granted to do…as if you haven’t broken the lockdown rules already! I think I’ve only broken the rules twice, which surprises me given my normal rebellious nature. I keep thinking about getting the tube to go one stop then walk back. Remind me of my teenage years…ahhhh.
Gosh did I get this far before rambling?
So Friday and next weekend. No details as such, but the more likely outcome is that the low pressure over France/Spain sends warmer air around it towards the UK – maybe 20’C, but certainly warmer than during the week.
However that also brings increased chances of heavy showers or even rain at some point during the weekend too. Doesn’t guarantee it – but the chance is increased.
I think a more southerly or perhaps more likely south-westerly flow will be around for the latter third of May, bringing warm or very warm conditions at times, but also increased chances of heavy showers, perhaps thundery. I wouldn’t rule out a short unsettled Atlantic-based spell.
June still looks like the best of the summer months in terms of sunshine and temperatures. “Spanish Plume” type events seem very feasible, with their associated 2-3 days of hot/humid weather followed by a thundery breakdown.
July onwards more mixed. I still think there will be hot spells during summer, perhaps briefly very hot at times – but also some wet weather too.
Signals were fairly strong for an unsettled and cool August but they have relaxed recently, so will be interesting to see if that becomes a trend. I’m now on the fence for August – it has in recent years been the poorest of summer months.
I wish you a pleasant bank holiday weekend – don’t have too much fun. I did expect that I’d ramble more but appaently not…maybe one glass of wine wasn’t enough. Ask me a question…maybe I’ll answer it. Nothing on meteorology though…my brain needs rest now!…